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Comstar posted:They don't need to blow up the entire bridge. They need to hit and destroy the rail line part of it. You’re describing dozens of strikes with an insanely expensive munition. And rail is easy to fix, just like a bridge.
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Sep 18, 2022 12:57
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Chalks posted:Not since the recent strikes in Crimea. They are also air launched from Russian airspace, etc etc. Preventing Kalibr launches with ATACMS is a fantasy. that's true, but ironically the Russians stopped because there was a belief among Russians that Ukraine would be getting the first ATACMs in late August and yeah I agree that whatever the source, Ukraine will have long range capabilities sooner than later
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Sep 18, 2022 13:03
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Am I correct in assuming ATACMS is pronounced "attackums?"
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Sep 18, 2022 13:14
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Discendo Vox posted:It's interesting to me that there would be substantial numbers of contractor participants from the St Petersburg area. That doesn't reflect the more...imperial...decisions about distribution of forces we'd been hearing. No, that’s about as unusual as seeing a student from Midwest in Yale - prospective students from regions are all in a brutal competition for Moscow and St. Petersburg universities. gay picnic defence posted:Seems like a bad idea to publicise which enemy weapons are causing you the most grief. Kind of, but on the other hand this probably works as “so, remember the other bad guys? Can we have something to deal with their stuff” for influencing what NATO offers them, Americans in particular. Nelson Mandingo posted:Watching Perun's latest video on the counter-offensive and he brings up a point that I never really considered. He points out that the United States potential justification for withholding ATACMS missiles. Because they could be used to strike into Russia itself. Ukraine promises it will only use it on military targets within Ukraine. But it's likely being used by the US as a tool of political leverage. A sword of damocles against russia's government. As a threat that continued escalation of attacks against civilian targets could result in them being issued to Ukraine en masse with no fire restrictions. Ukrainians have struck targets inside Russia with their own Tochka-U missiles, months ago the first time. Also, Russia is a bit too big for a handful of 200 kg warhead missile launchers, reaching just a few hundred kilometres, to count as Damocles anything. I think that the potential for increase in deep strike frequency is a factor in American calculus, but I’d personally expect the decision to be primarily decorum-based. Also I’m not sure there’s a lot of targets in Ukraine that remain otherwise inaccessible, except for maybe some ammo depots in Crimea, with feasibility pending upon air defence there and likely other things I’m simply not aware of. gay picnic defence posted:ATACMS provides a lot more leverage though. If the Kerch Strait bridge is still standing after 24 hours of Ukraine getting their first batch of ATACMS I'd be surprised, and that has all kinds of implications for keeping troops in Crimea and Kherson regions supplied. It’s a hardly an adequate weapon against the bridge, and I don’t think Ukraine holds any ground where such attack would be geometrically possible. cgeq posted:You know what else would stop Russia from being able to escalate attacks against civilians? Not having the weapons to hit them anymore, because they've been blown up, by Ukranian ATACMs. Long range missiles fired at civilians exceed ATACMS range, sometimes by an order of magnitude.
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Sep 18, 2022 13:14
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Luigi's Discount Porn Bin posted:Am I correct in assuming ATACMS is pronounced "attackums?" I’m sorry to say that I asked someone who worked with ATACMS in the Army, and not only did he say the pronunciation is “ay-tackums”, he could only muster a “huh” when I suggested “attackums” would be better.
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Sep 18, 2022 13:24
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Mexico is apparently continuing to be a poo poo about this. After cool opinions like thisquote:“We reaffirm our moral and political support for the difficult decision that forced the Russian government and President Vladimir Putin to engage in the legitimate defense of his people and, seeking to avoid a larger military conflict and preserve world peace, militarily intervene in Ukrainian territory to weaken the neo-Nazi, coup-lead forces,” the Morena Youth of Mexico State group wrote in the letter, young representatives of the current president’s political party in Mexico. https://www.vallartadaily.com/ukraine-says-mexicos-peace-plan-is-meant-to-help-russia-regroup-for-a-new-offensive/
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Sep 18, 2022 13:43
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nimby posted:Knowing how Ukraine communicates to the outside world, it's perfectly possible the drones are doing nothing, or even actively harm the Russian effort. Ukraine wants a long range missile system from the US and Biden doesn't want to give it to them because he thinks Russia would see it as an escalation that could increase the likelihood of a nuke being used. I think the article is an attempt to increase political pressure on Biden and get the long range missile system.
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Sep 18, 2022 14:27
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mobby_6kl posted:Mexico is apparently continuing to be a poo poo about this. After cool opinions like this That's just a party youth group and show me a political party youth group anywhere in the world that isn't run by terrible people
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Sep 18, 2022 14:46
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The actual Mexican plan is for a peace commission made up of Pope Francis, Narendra Modi, and the UN Secretary General to mediate directly with Putin and Zelensky, which is a pipe dream.
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Sep 18, 2022 15:20
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Modi, sure, but why the Pope?
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Sep 18, 2022 15:27
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ronya posted:Modi, sure, but why the Pope? Popular in Mexico most likey, and he's generally (not surprisingly) been a "peace at any costs" voice.
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Sep 18, 2022 15:28
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steinrokkan posted:I find it hard to believe Ukraine, who is shooting down over 50% of proper Russian missiles, suddenly has trouble with comparatively primitive Iranian cruise missiles. But anything to drum up support is useful. I'd like to respond to this because it a very interesting subject. If you read about drones a lot of the stuff brought up mentions that they are "low and slow". This is extremely threatening to AA systems, which are specifically designed to target high and fast attackers. A lot of time the search radars have hardware doppler filters in place to separate slow ground type signals from airplanes and many drones are completely invisible to your radar. The alternative is not filtering, and then your system is overwhelmed by tree movements, birds etc. The drones are tiny, quiet, and still sufficiently fast that you can't shoot them down with small arms easily. The tools you need to shoot down an iskander are completely different than the tools needed to shoot down a Shahed or a dji phantom. Anti drone radars have these filters at different Doppler values and they do a lot of software side work to filter the noise from the actual returns. My company was kind of the first in the business at dealing with these threats and although I'm not an expert it's very interesting watching the development of a whole new type of warfare.
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Sep 18, 2022 15:29
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https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1571469084235030532 https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1571156062169956352 https://twitter.com/kofmanmichael/status/1571495573131231233 https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1571484742469689345 Possibly Kherson today https://twitter.com/ian_matveev/status/1571480262944366598 https://twitter.com/andrew__roth/status/1571417971247185925 https://twitter.com/eliothiggins/status/1571412557793042433 Rumours of some Luhansk factories getting “transferred” to Russia https://twitter.com/motytchak/status/1571151296127971329
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Sep 18, 2022 15:30
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Randarkman posted:Popular in Mexico most likey, and he's generally (not surprisingly) been a "peace at any costs" voice. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pope-says-supplying-weapons-ukraine-is-morally-acceptable-self-defence-2022-09-15/
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Sep 18, 2022 15:43
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nimby posted:Knowing how Ukraine communicates to the outside world, it's perfectly possible the drones are doing nothing, or even actively harm the Russian effort. In the responses in that thread, it seems they're vulnerable to MANPADS but their real killer is Patriot batteries, because they can coordinate air defenses to meet them whenever they pop up. So stuff like a mobile SAM battery like the Gepard is probably needed. cinci zoo sniper posted:Rumours of some Luhansk factories getting “transferred” to Russia There was stuff worth keeping in Luhansk People's Republic? Looking at the source article, it sounds like the factories involved are the Luhansk Cartridge Works and the Zarya Chemical Plant, to be transferred control to the Ulyanovsk Cartridge Works and the Sverdlov plant, both inside Russia. It sounds like they were producing ammunition and explosives, so if they're moving them outside of the LPR and into Russia, it sounds like that's going to cut an immediate supply of ammunition to Russian forces in Ukraine.
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Sep 18, 2022 16:37
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Young Freud posted:
Au contraire, it seems like a win-win-win. Ukraine can no longer HIMARS them, Russia gets equipment for pennies on the dollar, and the workers lose their excuses for not being conscripted!
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Sep 18, 2022 16:43
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Young Freud posted:In the responses in that thread, it seems they're vulnerable to MANPADS but their real killer is Patriot batteries, because they can coordinate air defenses to meet them whenever they pop up. A patriot battery is not tuned for drone works, it has the same limitations of a S300 battery, being designed to kill fast movers at high altitude. The current best picks for drone killing are high power lasers to fry the control optics or EW to seize the drone, failing that old kinetic SPAAGs. Young Freud posted:Looking at the source article, it sounds like the factories involved are the Luhansk Cartridge Works and the Zarya Chemical Plant, to be transferred control to the Ulyanovsk Cartridge Works and the Sverdlov plant, both inside Russia. It sounds like they were producing ammunition and explosives, so if they're moving them outside of the LPR and into Russia, it sounds like that's going to cut an immediate supply of ammunition to Russian forces in Ukraine. It depends on the state of the equipment before and after shipping, chemical and precision machining kit doesn't like getting rattled by bombs and being disassembled by conscripts. It's not beyond impossible that working machines could end up irremediably damaged by this relocation so it hurts them both. Also given how Ukraine is quickly moving to western ammo due to gifted kit, a factory designed to make russian calibers might not be as strategic as it was before for Ukraine forces. SlowBloke fucked around with this message at 16:57 on Sep 18, 2022 |
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Sep 18, 2022 16:52
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Young Freud posted:In the responses in that thread, it seems they're vulnerable to MANPADS but their real killer is Patriot batteries, because they can coordinate air defenses to meet them whenever they pop up. Seems like an expensive proposition to shoot down a single, relatively cheap drone with a patriot missile, those are really expensive. Or am misunderstanding you? BTW Gepard isn't SAM, but an AAG (anti-air gun) so if they can shoot them down effectively it's probably a lot cheaper.
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Sep 18, 2022 16:52
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ronya posted:Modi, sure, but why the Pope? Mexico has one of the largest Catholic populations.
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Sep 18, 2022 16:52
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 I don't actually believe that Ukraine will push into Russia, for many, obvious reasons but drat if I really want to see footage of this thing getting blown up like the giant swastika over the Zeppelinfeld.
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Sep 18, 2022 16:56
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SlowBloke posted:It depends on the state of the equipment before and after shipping, chemical and precision machining kit doesn't like getting rattled by bombs and being disassembled by conscripts. It's not beyond impossible that working machines could end up irremediably damaged by this relocation so it hurts them both. Also given how Ukraine is quickly moving to western ammo due to gifted kit, a factory designed to make russian calibers might not be as strategic as it was before for Ukraine forces. It's not the first time the
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Sep 18, 2022 16:57
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celewign posted:I'd like to respond to this because it a very interesting subject. Oh, this is nice info, wasn't aware of the dichotomy. 
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Sep 18, 2022 16:59
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Got an idea for a demonstration in front of the Russian embassy! Brb, gonna buy a million scarlet roses... (and a "Made in Latvia" sign standing in the middle of them)
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Sep 18, 2022 17:02
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*edit* misleading
Chalks fucked around with this message at 17:57 on Sep 18, 2022 |
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Sep 18, 2022 17:04
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^^^ Someone in AI said this plane has been parked in Estonia since 2021 so that is to say this was probably how it looked before sanctions spankmeister posted:Seems like an expensive proposition to shoot down a single, relatively cheap drone with a patriot missile, those are really expensive. Or am misunderstanding you?  Plus it's still better than letting it blow up your howitzers and crews. But yeah I think the Patriot is probably not the best solution here since the drones would flying low and slow enough that it won't be able to intercept it from very far. So you'd need a Gepard or Shilka everywhere.
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Sep 18, 2022 17:08
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celewign posted:I'd like to respond to this because it a very interesting subject.
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Sep 18, 2022 17:17
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mobby_6kl posted:^^^ I'm not an expert, but because Russia doesn't have a lot of places to fly to, they cannibalised a good number of their planes to keep the ones that still operate in good shape. So, ironically, if you fly a Russian plane now, it may actually be in a better state than before the war. It's just there are fewer planes to fly to much fewer destinations, and if sanctions are still in place for another year or two, that can drastically change.
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Sep 18, 2022 17:18
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Talked to a Russian friend who just last week managed to finally relocate out of the country and he told me that there is already a lot of smuggling around the sanctions through Turkey and Armenia. He didn't know if that only includes iPhones and personal stuff. I wonder if you could also get plane parts or other commercial stuff from the grey market.
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Sep 18, 2022 17:28
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Honj Steak posted:Talked to a Russian friend who just last week managed to finally relocate out of the country and he told me that there is already a lot of smuggling around the sanctions through Turkey and Armenia. He didn't know if that only includes iPhones and personal stuff. I wonder if you could also get plane parts or other commercial stuff from the grey market. It depends. Plane parts are difficult because companies like Boeing or Airbus don’t simply sell those parts. They’re sold to specific planes on specific occasions, meaning that Russia would either need someone to credibly make up a bunch of broken planes that require the exact parts Russia needs, which I’m not sure is possible, or to rely on cannibalising their own fleet, and buying written off or cloned parts from elsewhere. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 17:40 on Sep 18, 2022 |
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Sep 18, 2022 17:30
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Honj Steak posted:Talked to a Russian friend who just last week managed to finally relocate out of the country and he told me that there is already a lot of smuggling around the sanctions through Turkey and Armenia. He didn't know if that only includes iPhones and personal stuff. I wonder if you could also get plane parts or other commercial stuff from the grey market. Airplane parts have a lot of red tape to make sure the parts are conform, up to spec and made of the correct materials, which requires full paperwork on both airplane manufacturers and airline operators. Selling spares willy nilly would put the OEM and airplane operator in a very dark place in case a part for plane A ended up in plane B in case of crash so they are heavily regulated. As Cinci said Aeroflot can only cannibalize parts or try to machine them on their own if they are mechanical parts. Any outsider getting involved will get turbofucked by lawyers and lose any future sale in the aerospace sector.
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Sep 18, 2022 17:39
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Chalks posted:Looks like sanctions are pretty close to causing a collapse in civilian aviation, look at the state of this poo poo Well, someone is full of poo poo, because that video was posted 8 months ago: https://www.reddit.com/r/aviation/comments/skij2y/inop/ So no, whatever that video is showing about planes, it has nothing to do with sanctions or the collapse of Russian aviation. E: It appears to be this exact plane: https://www.planespotters.net/airframe/airbus-a321-200-vp-bvo-red-wings/eyjl5e Last flight I can see is https://flightaware.com/live/flight/VPBVO, which would match the person saying it's in Estonia at end of Dec 2021. Saladman fucked around with this message at 17:49 on Sep 18, 2022 |
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Sep 18, 2022 17:43
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Given that civil aviation transponder info is public I would presume it would be fairly easy to track the state of Russian civil aviation by counting transponders per day (accounting of course for lots of international routes having been banned).
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Sep 18, 2022 17:56
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Saladman posted:Well, someone is full of poo poo, because that video was posted 8 months ago: Ah, thanks, I will edit
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Sep 18, 2022 17:57
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Finnish Yle published a report about Russia emptying one third of the air defenses around Saint Petersburg, supposedly to send them to Ukraine. According to the interviewed retired major and former defense attache to Finnish embassy in Moscow the S-300 equipment is old stuff so in theory the defenses of the city haven't suffered from it. Some of the equipment sent might also be newer S-400 units. The belief is that Russia wants to use them primarily as poor man's replacement for cruise missiles which they are running out of. Ukrainian defence sources say that Russians have already fired 500 SAMs at Ukrainian ground targets, mainly civilian population. https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-12588962
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Sep 18, 2022 17:59
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Another way to look at Ukraine communicating openly and loudly about the damage done by Iranian drones: It's a way to make clear this isn't 'vaporware' nor irrelevant quantities/qualities being supplied to Russia. This makes a difference when it comes to western responses. Ukraine likely wants the west to punish Iran for doing this and set a precedent that supplying Russia with weapons will impact relations with the US and Europe beyond a slap on the wrist. So it doesn't have to be just about securing the flow of weapons from the west (which I think is pretty much as well secured as it can be) - but about trying to prevent further supplies to Russia. If Iran doesn't suffer any consequences from this, then it might tempt more countries into similar arrangements. There's been a lot of mockery in the west about Russia having to be aided by Iran, Venezuela, North Korea, etc. Which I think is rather stupid - because those countries have very real weapons and ammunition to offer. There's a lot of countries in this world with tragically high defense budgets, and even with varying levels of corruption and rot, some of that money does get turned into weapons. Once winter comes around, there will be countries very tempted to get a leg up on feeding and warming their angry masses by selling off some weapons to Russia.
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Sep 18, 2022 18:17
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PederP posted:Another way to look at Ukraine communicating openly and loudly about the damage done by Iranian drones: It's a way to make clear this isn't 'vaporware' nor irrelevant quantities/qualities being supplied to Russia. This makes a difference when it comes to western responses. Ukraine likely wants the west to punish Iran for doing this and set a precedent that supplying Russia with weapons will impact relations with the US and Europe beyond a slap on the wrist. What do you think Ukraine's supporters can do about Iran selling weapons to Russia?
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Sep 18, 2022 18:25
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Nenonen posted:What do you think Ukraine's supporters can do about Iran selling weapons to Russia? I wonder if it's possible for Western countries to start buying weapons earmarked for Russia themselves (and possibly give them to Ukraine). There are obviously sanctions in place on most of the countries that are willing to supply Russia, but if sanctions can be temporarily lifted for Russian bonds, maybe a one-time-only buy off of everything that Russia could potentially use can also be allowed.
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Sep 18, 2022 18:35
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Nenonen posted:What do you think Ukraine's supporters can do about Iran selling weapons to Russia? There are a lot of European countries on decently good terms with Iran. It isn't necessarily about sanctions or treaties but about diplomatic pressure. Iran benefits from having Europe try to pressure the US into a less confrontational stance towards the US. Which has very much been the role of some European governments during the last two decades. Also, Russia has claimed a lot of support from various countries - making it clear to the western public which of these are more than symbolic has value to Ukraine. Just as making fun of claims that don't come true has value. This isn't just about the governments of the west. The public opinion has been key to the western unity and Ukraine has quite skillfully galvanized public support in the west. Doing the same when it comes to naming-and-shaming those who sell arms to Russia is a continuation of this strategy. If this was purely about getting countermeasures to those drones, Ukraine has numerous channels to do this on a government level. But the public perception, as I see it, is very much that Russia is getting no useful help from other countries. Ukraine has a lot to gain by countering this narrative, and trying to galvanize western public support against those who sell arms to Russia. Especially as the next country to do so may not be quite as isolated as Iran.
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Sep 18, 2022 18:42
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Paladinus posted:I wonder if it's possible for Western countries to start buying weapons earmarked for Russia themselves (and possibly give them to Ukraine). There are obviously sanctions in place on most of the countries that are willing to supply Russia, but if sanctions can be temporarily lifted for Russian bonds, maybe a one-time-only buy off of everything that Russia could potentially use can also be allowed. I doubt North Korea is going to sell all their weapons to USA.
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Sep 18, 2022 18:42
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Nenonen posted:What do you think Ukraine's supporters can do about Iran selling weapons to Russia? Blow their poo poo up in Syria for example
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Sep 18, 2022 18:46
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