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clap harder or tinkerbell dies
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Sep 19, 2022 17:15
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buglord posted:Will be very cool if it doesn’t jump up to 19-20 by the time I wake up tomorrow. I’ll be back in 9 hours. Ugh.
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Sep 19, 2022 17:31
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Your daily reminder for why crypto prices move up and down (graph from this morning) its all vibes (and the fed)
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Sep 19, 2022 17:47
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drk posted:Your daily reminder for why crypto prices move up and down (graph from this morning) I got nothing.
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Sep 19, 2022 18:41
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Buy the Dow dip
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Sep 19, 2022 18:44
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drk posted:Your daily reminder for why crypto prices move up and down (graph from this morning) I get what you're saying and broadly agree, but the scaling on that graph is screwy and paints the coins in a way better light then they actually are. The bitcoin range is ~15,000 - ~73,000 The Nasdaq 100 range is ~11,000 - ~17,000 The Etherium range is 0 - 5,000 Proportionally, far more of the price range of the coins is present in that graph than the Nasdaq 100 E-Mini. So while they're all moving roughly together in response to the same market forces, the Nasdaq swings are magnified by zooming in the y axis like that, and the BTC too to a certain extent. For example, the big June 2022 dip where they all drop about the same amount on that graph shows the Nasdaq 100 going from ~12750 or so down to ~11500, for about a 9% drop. Etherium in the same time went from ~1750 down to ~1100, a ~37% drop. Bitcoin goes from ~30,000 to ~19,000, also about a 36% drop. The butts did worse, and if someone hypothetically bought all of those at the May 2022 high point and sold at the June 2022 low point the people in the NASDAQ come out significantly ahead. It really, really can't be over-stated just how loving volatile these coins are.
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Sep 19, 2022 18:56
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The triple axis is a bit tortured - the point is, the directionality of risk assets is pretty highly correlated recently. Prices appear to be almost entirely driven by overall market sentiment, not any specific events in the cryptospace. I agree the chart might suggest "oh, crypto does about as well as stocks", which is definitely not true.
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Sep 19, 2022 19:09
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yeah it does worse than stonks.
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Sep 19, 2022 19:12
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It's me; I'm the currency (of the future) that can fluctuate over $1100 in value in 4 hours. Few understand how helpful this is.
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Sep 19, 2022 19:32
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I think I mostly understand this stuff now, after fighting through the "too stupid" parts. But I have a question. The Ethereum miners have to stop, because that's not a thing anymore. Some then say they'll move to mining other coins. But no, someone else says, that's not profitable because those are useless shitcoins. So it costs too much to mine them. I'm sure this is true, but how do those coins come into existence then?
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Sep 19, 2022 19:44
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Proof of work is stupid - the amount of coins generated is fixed per amount of time. The amount of people mining it has absolutely nothing to do with how many coins are printed. This is why its not profitable - unlike things in the ground, more "mining" doesnt get you more product.
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Sep 19, 2022 19:46
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Bobstar posted:I think I mostly understand this stuff now, after fighting through the "too stupid" parts. But I have a question. Some people mine them anyway in the speculative hope that they will one day be worth something, without realizing it would literally cost them less money to just buy them instead. But I think most of the miners of those coins are in countries with very weak economies and relatively cheap electricity, and it is actually profitable for them if they mine a few coins worth a few USD cents each. I'm not sure about mining but back in 2020 Ethiopia launched a big initiative to digitize the country, part of that was an identification card system that was built on a blockchain (Cardano). Does anyone know how that's going? It sounded like it was actually a decent use case of the technology but lol, I can't imagine it's going well these days. deep dish peat moss fucked around with this message at 19:49 on Sep 19, 2022 |
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Sep 19, 2022 19:47
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Don’t forget people who aren’t paying for their own electricity. A couple of years ago you’d see a ton of stories about universities having to crack down on students mining crypto in their dorm rooms. It was “””free””” money for the students but really it was a transfer from the university to them, less whatever portion of the housing costs they/their parents were paying was earmarked for utilities. See also all the various Reddit posts that show up in the BWM and r/relationships threads that tldr down to “I’m sharing a house with four other people, we split the utilities four ways, and now they’re pissed that I’m blasting a stack of 3090s 24/7”
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Sep 19, 2022 19:59
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Why can't miners make their own pow shitcoin if that's all they want?
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Sep 19, 2022 20:01
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pofcorn posted:Why can't miners make their own pow shitcoin if that's all they want? Plenty of them have. They’re just loving worthless compared to any of the coins people actually want to speculate with.
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Sep 19, 2022 20:14
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they might, yet. but it's very difficult to launch a coin to the point it makes economic sense to mine it, because right now there's a gigantic pool of miners who will happily jump on anything profitable until it isn't, that's the problem. launching the coin is trivial and afaik still happens all the time. you need to convince someone else to buy the coins you mine for more than the cost of electricity. that's nontrivially difficult, other PoW coins absolutely could not have started in these conditions and instead started when mining difficulty was basically zero.
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Sep 19, 2022 20:16
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PITY BONER posted:It's me; I'm the currency (of the future) that can fluctuate over $1100 in value in 4 hours. Few understand how helpful this is. Obviously this is a store of value. It's worth Also as early as today I think I read here or elsewhere that the new ethW (proof of work mineable) already had an exploit.
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Sep 19, 2022 20:19
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The most interesting thing about ethW is not that it was hacked (of course it was), but that it has a non-zero value: currently a little under $6. Under US tax law, forks like this are treated as airdrops. That is to say, when the chains split and ETH holders got ETH (on the main PoS fork) and an equal amount of ethW of the new PoW fork - the entire new amount is immediately taxable as income. So, if you had say, 1000ETH, you'd have a tax bill on approximately $50,000 of ethW income because trading on ethW opened around $50. This tax applies even if you never access the coins.
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Sep 19, 2022 20:32
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wait, doesn't that mean you could do like, hostile tax attacks on other people you knew who owned crypto by doing a fork and somehow ensuring that fork had value. that seems pretty cyberpunk.
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Sep 19, 2022 20:40
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CoolCab posted:wait, doesn't that mean you could do like, hostile tax attacks on other people you knew who owned crypto by doing a fork and somehow ensuring that fork had value. that seems pretty cyberpunk. Yes, yes it does. I suspect enforcement of the rule is almost as non-existant as voluntary compliance with it is though
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Sep 19, 2022 20:45
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Cyrano4747 posted:Don’t forget people who aren’t paying for their own electricity. A couple of years ago you’d see a ton of stories about universities having to crack down on students mining crypto in their dorm rooms. It was “””free””” money for the students but really it was a transfer from the university to them, less whatever portion of the housing costs they/their parents were paying was earmarked for utilities. This is the big trick that PoW was on the verge of pulling off in a major way- getting the state to directly and deliberately pay for the electricity is the wet dream of coin miners and, in many ways, the ultimate version of the grift, in that rather than robbing individual people you're legally skimming off the collective purse. Never forget that the ultimate goal of most of these things is to get at public money. PoW also has the benefit of setting up a big roaring potemkin factory that you can gesture at if an investor asks where their money is; Proof of Stake is far more tied to bank balances than it is to any visible or audible pretend-productivity. This is where we get the whole "Ted Cruz walking around the crypto facility with a hard hat" photoshoot.
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Sep 19, 2022 20:46
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Oh yes it's dimly coming back now. They're not making the coins, they're fighting like rats in a sack to be awarded the coins that would get made anyway. Thanks, I'll file this in the "lol crypto" part of my brain for later
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Sep 19, 2022 20:52
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Bobstar posted:I think I mostly understand this stuff now, after fighting through the "too stupid" parts. But I have a question. Those shitcoins could have been profitable to mine so long as there were just a few miners. With a small number of miners, coins are easy to mine, so it doesn't take much electricity to make the coin. There also aren't that many people interested in the coin, but the prices are low so they're able to buy up the supply. Then the merge happens and all these ETH miners hop onto the shitcoins. The first thing that happens is the rate at which coins are mined suddenly shoots up. And all those new coins are up for sale because the miners are only interested in the profit. Since the number of buyers didn't really change much the price crashes and it becomes unprofitable. The other thing that will happen is the difficulty adjustment. I don't know how often these shitcoins adjust their difficulty, but if the new miners stick around then the difficulty will increase and the rate of new coins being produced will drop. But they'll take more electricity to mine. So there's a double whammy of crashing prices and increasing difficulty.
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Sep 19, 2022 21:18
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HappyHippo posted:Those shitcoins could have been profitable to mine so long as there were just a few miners. With a small number of miners, coins are easy to mine, so it doesn't take much electricity to make the coin. There also aren't that many people interested in the coin, but the prices are low so they're able to buy up the supply. Frisbees going roofward all over the cryptoverse
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Sep 19, 2022 21:53
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CoolCab posted:wait, doesn't that mean you could do like, hostile tax attacks on other people you knew who owned crypto by doing a fork and somehow ensuring that fork had value. that seems pretty cyberpunk. Yes, people do this. And this is how they can mark you a terrorist and money launderer sending you money from tornadocash. It's the magic of crypto and consent, because you can't refuse coins and wallet addresses are public. So by definition: Blockchain: we didn't build consent into the wallet.
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Sep 19, 2022 22:48
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HappyHippo posted:Those shitcoins could have been profitable to mine so long as there were just a few miners. With a small number of miners, coins are easy to mine, so it doesn't take much electricity to make the coin. There also aren't that many people interested in the coin, but the prices are low so they're able to buy up the supply. I'ts like a massive game of Chicken, but where there are no real stakes. Everyone's waiting for everyone else to blink, but there's no big downside to not blinking. Aramis fucked around with this message at 22:53 on Sep 19, 2022 |
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Sep 19, 2022 22:51
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nachos posted:the only thing missing is the step where you zoom in and out of the chart until the pattern matches the one you're looking for Excuse me, you mean "proprietary opportunity window optimization analytics."
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Sep 19, 2022 23:19
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chadbear posted:
What in the ever loving gently caress is that scaling on the Y axis?
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Sep 20, 2022 00:26
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tehinternet posted:What in the ever loving gently caress is that scaling on the Y axis? I haven't looked at the chart but I'm guessing logarithmic because coiners love logs.
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Sep 20, 2022 00:34
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dunno how many layers of irony that chart's on but I'm the January 2023 "Still Cheap" $50,000 projection
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Sep 20, 2022 00:45
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an actual frog posted:dunno how many layers of irony that chart's on but I'm the January 2023 "Still Cheap" $50,000 projection It’s several layers deep when crypto is down. Any other time it’s in euphoric “to the moon” and “have fun staying poor” territory
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Sep 20, 2022 02:39
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syntaxfunction posted:I haven't looked at the chart but I'm guessing logarithmic because coiners love logs. Correct
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Sep 20, 2022 02:53
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Clockwerk posted:It’s several layers deep when crypto is down. Any other time it’s in euphoric “to the moon” and “have fun staying poor” territory Ah, so crypto currency is basically untreated bipolar.
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Sep 20, 2022 02:55
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tango alpha delta posted:Ah, so crypto currency is basically untreated bipolar. LMAO. You could say that yeah.
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Sep 20, 2022 02:55
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Just as a pro-tip and a general life hack: if you marry into money, don't invest your newly acquired assets into crypto That's all! 
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Sep 20, 2022 03:00
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it's basically one of the stages of grief for buttcoiners when the line went down earlier this year stage 1: motivational quotes and how crypto is actually good stage 2: "throughout the last year i have learned so much so much, a lot of personal growth" stage 3: utter silence stage 4: "my lawyers have advised me to delete my social media account. I will now post all the details of my divorce" stage 5: ???
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Sep 20, 2022 03:26
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The Saddest Rhino posted:it's basically one of the stages of grief for buttcoiners when the line went down earlier this year I've started to hear people slightly fearful after this: https://twitter.com/tier10k/status/1571864523195416579
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Sep 20, 2022 03:33
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https://twitter.com/The_Real_Fly/status/1572099683765424130?s=20&t=dXfq4EcHX2rZXuKbd7t7Xg Uh, ooooh! Institutional clients are starting to embrace the FUD! Queue the Ron-Paul-it's-Happening.GIF?
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Sep 20, 2022 07:48
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tehinternet posted:What in the ever loving gently caress is that scaling on the Y axis? It's a log axis. In the link there's the explanation that it's modeled after some buttcoin guy fitting a logarithmic curve to BTC price in 2014.  I'm the predicted BTC price of 209599 dollars at the end of 2022
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Sep 20, 2022 09:53
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chadbear posted:It's a log axis. In the link there's the explanation that it's modeled after some buttcoin guy fitting a logarithmic curve to BTC price in 2014. Not even within an order of magnitude
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Sep 20, 2022 09:55
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