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I'm going to guess Shoigu saying they're 'at war with Ukraine and NATO' doesn't really mean anything?
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Sep 21, 2022 13:32
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Grouchio posted:I'm going to guess Shoigu saying they're 'at war with Ukraine and NATO' doesn't really mean anything? No, they’ve been saying that before as well.
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Sep 21, 2022 13:33
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Can you officially call the "Special Military Operation" as war now in RU media?
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Sep 21, 2022 13:36
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Chalks posted:Is this since the mobilisation announcement or before? His observations would've been from before the announcement. But he also claims at the end that the mobilization hardly surprised anyone in Russia, so I don't know if he thinks it will change the mood or not.
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Sep 21, 2022 13:37
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The Question IRL posted:That's the beauty of it. One of the paragraphs in the decree is literally secret. There's no 7, and this is where the number of mobilised soldiers is supposed to be. Shoigu said 300k, but nobody knows how many they actually plan to send off. alex314 posted:Can you officially call the "Special Military Operation" as war now in RU media? Propagandists were allowed to call it a war from the start. A war with NATO, a war against non-traditional values, a war for the existence of Russia, etc. You get in trouble when you say it's a war implying a war of aggression (the court will decide what exactly you implied). Paladinus fucked around with this message at 13:43 on Sep 21, 2022 |
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Sep 21, 2022 13:40
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alex314 posted:Can you officially call the "Special Military Operation" as war now in RU media? No.
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Sep 21, 2022 13:42
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Strong speeches from Macron and Scholz, both focusing on hitting imperialism and colonialism tropes. Feels like a charm offensive towards Africa or Asia, but, given history, that might be too little too late. In any case, practical policies talked in the coming days will be much more interesting.
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Sep 21, 2022 13:58
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Interesting thread with some good maps of Russian supply lines. https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1572389840007892992
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Sep 21, 2022 14:00
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Somaen posted:Hey fb, sincerely hope you and your family are untouched by this Spending my day briefing coworkers about whether they are at risk and how to effectively dodge, first time in 6 months I've felt that I'm doing something useful
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Sep 21, 2022 14:10
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fatherboxx posted:Spending my day briefing coworkers about whether they are at risk and how to effectively dodge, first time in 6 months I've felt that I'm doing something useful Rumour goes army doesn’t want drug users
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Sep 21, 2022 14:13
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I thought this was interesting given the wave of refusenik interviews and stories that we had for a while: https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1572573095734685702?s=20&t=4TbWCs_uMftH7gcbE9pTgg https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1572573097357901826?s=20&t=4TbWCs_uMftH7gcbE9pTgg We heard previously that contractual soldiers would sometimes have their officers refuse to honor their requests despite having certain recourse under Russian law. I wonder if this will lead to new or harsher discipline for refuseniks.
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Sep 21, 2022 14:16
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https://twitter.com/alexstubb/status/1572534904432349184 https://twitter.com/alexstubb/status/1572534907804565506 https://twitter.com/alexstubb/status/1572534910702821376 https://twitter.com/alexstubb/status/1572534913445908483 SmokingFrog0641 posted:I wonder if this will lead to new or harsher discipline for refuseniks. Seems to be a safe bet after yesterday’s laws, noted by Kofman.
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Sep 21, 2022 14:20
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https://twitter.com/alexstubb/status/1572534911994679297 People keep saying this. Putin is unpredictable. He's been very predictable throughout, imo.
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Sep 21, 2022 14:23
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SmokingFrog0641 posted:We heard previously that contractual soldiers would sometimes have their officers refuse to honor their requests despite having certain recourse under Russian law. I wonder if this will lead to new or harsher discipline for refuseniks. This was mentioned a few times over the last months, but at some point they need to formalize stop loss policies since officers can force one or two people to fight past the end of their contracts, but you can't reasonably do that to an entire battalion. Even if the war was going well, they'd still have to do this around now to keep 6 month contracts from expiring away the army.
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Sep 21, 2022 14:23
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spankmeister posted:People keep saying this. Putin is unpredictable. He's been very predictable throughout, imo. I feel that’s aimed at February 24-style unpredictable, and the general signs of vibes-based policy making, i.e., unpredictable as in non-technocratic.
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Sep 21, 2022 14:26
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I feel that’s aimed at February 24-style unpredictable, and the general signs of vibes-based policy making, i.e., unpredictable as in non-technocratic. He’s super unpredictable to people who assume he isn’t lying whenever he feels it’s convenient. e: can someone help fill me in? I’m seeing tons of reporting on the number of people being mobilized, but nothing about nationalizing equipment or vehicle production. Has there been anything about how they’re planning to equip all these new troops? the other hand fucked around with this message at 14:40 on Sep 21, 2022 |
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Sep 21, 2022 14:30
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The full Kofman thread, from which were the excerpts above, for the lazy: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1572573086490464256.html https://twitter.com/kofmanmichael/status/1572573088189124613
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Sep 21, 2022 14:30
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Can Russian emigrants (is that the word for Russians who immigrated out of Russia?) be compelled to return to Russia for mobilization? Two of my best friends both left Russia ~10 years ago for Western Europe as students and just never returned. They were thinking of visiting family cause they just had their second kid some time ago but I’m really glad they were stymied from it due to logistical issues like flights.
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Sep 21, 2022 14:34
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Kofman always super hedges everything he says, but I think he has a good general point. A lot of people were right about the Russian military (they wont win!) for the wrong reasons (They'll run out of ammo by march!) so while I doubt this will change everything, this is a development and escalation that will shape the conflict differently.
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Sep 21, 2022 14:34
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Boris Galerkin posted:Can Russian emigrants (is that the word for Russians who immigrated out of Russia?) be compelled to return to Russia for mobilization? Two of my best friends both left Russia ~10 years ago for Western Europe as students and just never returned. They were thinking of visiting family cause they just had their second kid some time ago but I’m really glad they were stymied from it due to logistical issues like flights. They can be told they need to but nothing will force you to go unless you emigrated to the DNR or Belarus or something. The good news is that by cutting of visa access, those options for fleeing are closing. The anti-fascist prophylactical barrier is succeeding thanks to European racism states (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) FishBulbia fucked around with this message at 14:37 on Sep 21, 2022 |
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Sep 21, 2022 14:35
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the other hand posted:He’s super unpredictable to people who assume he isn’t lying whenever he feels it’s convenient. He's super unpredictable if you keep assuming he's going to act like a western leader. The simple truth is, when Putin loses power he is dead. When Putin loses the war, he loses power. Therefore, he will continue to prosecute the war until he loses power anyway, because there's a slim possibility of salvaging something.
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Sep 21, 2022 14:38
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FishBulbia posted:They can be told they need to but nothing will force you to go unless you emigrated to the DNR or Belarus or something. It’s too early for me to parse what you mean by the second paragraph but I’ll just say that they left Russia because even 10 years ago they saw that it was always going to be Putin’s country. That seemed to be the sentiment from their Russian friends that I met along the way as well.
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Sep 21, 2022 14:39
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Boris Galerkin posted:It’s too early for me to parse what you mean by the second paragraph but I’ll just say that they left Russia because even 10 years ago they saw that it was always going to be Putin’s country. That seemed to be the sentiment from their Russian friends that I met along the way as well. They’re saying that with shuttering of tourist visas in Europe, Russians have fewer destinations to easily flee the military recruiters to.
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Sep 21, 2022 14:44
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Couldn't the point of this mobilization be to move the new conscripts into areas Russia already controls (basically the occupation force) and the "veterans" that are already there will be moved up to the front?
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Sep 21, 2022 14:45
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saratoga posted:This was mentioned a few times over the last months, but at some point they need to formalize stop loss policies since officers can force one or two people to fight past the end of their contracts, but you can't reasonably do that to an entire battalion. Even if the war was going well, they'd still have to do this around now to keep 6 month contracts from expiring away the army. I can see your point about the battalion-wide contracts getting ready to expire. I suppose I mean I’m trying to think what they will actually do. So far, they’ve just been holding them at the front lines or I guess stashing them in a basement. Will they now formally arrest them and send them back east to prison? But that just seems like it would deplete the front more, so I would assume that would not work. If someone flat out does not want to fight, I would not think the threat of jail or court martial, which would entail taking them away from the front would carry much weight. I just assume I’m lacking imagination though.
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Sep 21, 2022 14:47
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The news has sparked mass flight from Russia basically, I'm sure many people on this site can appreciate how apathy toward a political position can set in, once that politics is dressed in an ushanka and knocking on your door, asking you to stop playing warcraft and please get to dying in some mudpatch, you're going to want to find any avenue to flee so you can continue playing warcraft. While it is true that there are still places to go, Georgia, Armenia, try for one of the stans, visa bans just make it a little bit harder and increase the pressure and price of emigration.
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Sep 21, 2022 14:49
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With the (partial) mobilisation, I'm curious if we're going to now see reserve officers who have never served in the military taking command? That sounds like fun, fun, fun for everyone involved... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserve_Officer_Training_in_Russia
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Sep 21, 2022 14:49
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Charliegrs posted:Couldn't the point of this mobilization be to move the new conscripts into areas Russia already controls (basically the occupation force) and the "veterans" that are already there will be moved up to the front? Not this one, but that could happen later. Currently the deployments would still count as abroad, and conscripts are not legally involved in those.
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Sep 21, 2022 14:49
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Charliegrs posted:Couldn't the point of this mobilization be to move the new conscripts into areas Russia already controls (basically the occupation force) and the "veterans" that are already there will be moved up to the front?  ...picks up the contract and continues! One out of two gets volunteer contract and captures Ukrainian soil! The one without, follows him to occupy! When the one with the contract gets killed, the one who is following picks up the contract and continues! One out of two gets volunteer contract...
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Sep 21, 2022 14:56
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the other hand posted:can someone help fill me in? I’m seeing tons of reporting on the number of people being mobilized, but nothing about nationalizing equipment or vehicle production. Has there been anything about how they’re planning to equip all these new troops? Not much, ergo “partial mobilisation”, as it really pains them to admit that they’re in dire straits. The closest thing on industry was yesterday’s MIC roundtable about dealing with the western sanctions. https://twitter.com/maryilyushina/status/1572192030226366465
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Sep 21, 2022 14:59
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FishBulbia posted:The news has sparked mass flight from Russia basically, I'm sure many people on this site can appreciate how apathy toward a political position can set in, once that politics is dressed in an ushanka and knocking on your door, asking you to stop playing warcraft and please get to dying in some mudpatch, you're going to want to find any avenue to flee so you can continue playing warcraft. While it is true that there are still places to go, Georgia, Armenia, try for one of the stans, visa bans just make it a little bit harder and increase the pressure and price of emigration. Even though Russian MoD said they don't plan to put a travel ban in place for all mobilised, by law, they don't have to, and the mobilised shouldn't be allowed to travel without a special permission. quote:Article 21. Duties of citizens subject to call-up for military service on mobilisation Hopefully, they understand they won't be able to make someone who's willing to pay thousands of dollars for plane tickets to desert into a good soldiers and will just let them go.
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Sep 21, 2022 15:07
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Russia's mobilisation taking off swiftly: https://mobile.twitter.com/runews/status/1572529318835949568 (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Sep 21, 2022 15:11
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SmokingFrog0641 posted:I can see your point about the battalion-wide contracts getting ready to expire. The point of laws is to create the bureaucracy and social pressure to enforce behavior. Before people had the right (at least nominally) to take their money and go home. Now they don't. In theory they could be arrested, but most will probably just suck it up and go along with the system enough to get by but not do much more. If things get really bad they may start to surrender, but things are not there yet. For what it is worth, essentially all planning for this war has been short term. I don't think that is going to change. I suspect this will be used to stop loss existing units and simplify meeting their existing recruitment goals by enabling them to call up people with experience. So basically a legal formalization of what they were already doing.
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Sep 21, 2022 15:16
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"Ensure 100% import substitution." So I guess we need to play is Putin delusional/ very ill informed/ an idiot, or does he know this is a joke and just saying it for PR reasons. I'm assuming the last?
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Sep 21, 2022 15:17
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Stoltenberg weighing in: Calling out Putin's rhetoric as dangerous and reckless but not new. Emphasizes that NATO is keen to stress to Russia that nuclear war cannot be won by any party. Stresses that NATO is not party to the conflict. Notes that Russia has not changed their nuclear force posture. Touches on the efforts to restore NATO stocks of weapons and ammunition. Basically, NATO seems to be taking Russian escalation calmly, maintaining the exact same position they've had all along. A good watch imo: https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1572571639774343169?s=20&t=V5NvovUi6kvnyh4ZgBJ9_g "Jens Stoltenberg told Reuters Editor in Chief Alessandra Galloni in an interview that Russia's first mobilization since World War Two was not a surprise but that it would escalate the conflict that began with the Russian invasion on Feb. 24. (...) "We will make sure that there is no misunderstanding in Moscow about exactly how we will react. Of course it depends upon what kind of situation or what kind or weapons they may use. The most important thing is to prevent that from happening and that is why we have been so clear in our communications with Russia about the unprecedented consequences," Stoltenberg said, referring to any Russian use of nuclear weapons." https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/exclusive-nato-chief-says-putins-ukraine-escalation-dangerous-reckless-2022-09-21/
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Sep 21, 2022 15:24
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dr_rat posted:"Ensure 100% import substitution." He’s just making them the fall guys here.
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Sep 21, 2022 15:25
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Lastly, so the status quo regarding the war remains, other than that there's semi-mobilization involved now, basically? And Putin's 'threats' are less intimidating now than they were when Kiev was attacked in Feburary? (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Sep 21, 2022 15:26
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The Lone Badger posted:Late-war, the Red Army had some of the most sophisticated tactical doctrine on the planet. They got good at that poo poo. 'Human wave' is from memoirs written by nazi officers after the war trying to paint themselves in a good light. What's ironic is that it almost seems Putin believes that poo poo (human wave tactics the entire war, one gun for every 5 men) was what actually happened and wants to give it a go lol
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Sep 21, 2022 15:37
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Note RE: China - the rhetoric is fairly standard, but the fact that it's released as a stand alone statement and not in, say, a read out of a call to Putin or during a security council meeting is a departure from their operating procedure so far
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Sep 21, 2022 15:46
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