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dr_rat posted:"Ensure 100% import substitution." He's publicly made the demand, so whether it actually happens isn't his responsibility anymore--all the pro-war people who've been complaining about his execution of the war can't say that he hasn't pushed for better supplies. I would assume he knows that it's flat impossible, especially given that as I understand it, there's a long history of "import substitutions" in Russia that are actually still just imports. It's about putting on a show and shifting blame, and that's going to continue down the chain until somebody has to figure out how to fake import substitutions without remotely adequate resources. All corruption is bad, and the U.S. military has a lot of waste even before getting into dumb bullshit like the pallets full of cash, but watching Russia's collapse here does make me appreciate that at least the military does seem to actually get the things that it grossly overpays for.
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Sep 21, 2022 15:51
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What are the odds that the soldiers who took the lucrative short term 6 month contract are going to be monetarily hard hosed by the stop loss contracts? As soon as the 6 months run out they won't be able to leave plus they'll get the conscript wages as the cherry on top. On the one hand that's dumb as hell, if you want to crater morale (more so than it already is) in your veteran soldiers that's the way to do it. On the other hand it is so mean spirited and short sighted I think that is what will happen.
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Sep 21, 2022 16:02
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PederP posted:Assuming this is a proper mobilization and not just rushing hastily formed formations to the frontline, I wonder how they will find the trainers, equipment and infrastructure (physical and administrative) to turn these reservists into combat-ready formations. It will definitely help the Russian war effort, the question is by how much?
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Sep 21, 2022 16:02
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Mark Hertling responding to the mobilization news, describing how Russia's training system is terrible: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1572571676524838915.html
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Sep 21, 2022 16:15
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One question I had is about the claim that they are only mobilizing veterans with combat experience. Is there any way to know if they are telling the truth about that before the new troops get to combat? In other words, is there anyway to know if Russia is telling the truth about that and aren't just going to get a shitload of new recruits without experience? People keep talking that the new troops will man checkpoints or drive trucks. If that's the case, why bother with veterans with combat experience? Any 18 year-old can drive a truck or stand in a guardhouse. It seems to me that veterans who were previously discharged are just about the worst people to target in a "limited mobilization." These are people who did their time and know what they're getting sent to.
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Sep 21, 2022 16:27
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BadOptics posted:What's ironic is that it almost seems Putin believes that poo poo (human wave tactics the entire war, one gun for every 5 men) was what actually happened and wants to give it a go lol Yeah, even the corrected version of history where the USSR in WW2 is a modern army forgets the fact that they were supplied with a staggering amount of American and British Lend-Lease, including trucks/cars, tanks, planes, food, blankets, radios, raw materials necessary for electronics and metallurgy...  It's sometimes difficult to bring myself to push back against the WW2 RUSSIA STRONK narrative out of fear of diminishing the fact that the whole of Eastern Europe was fighting against a war of extinction at the hands of the Nazis and that the Western post-war narrative painted them as only winning by charging at the German lines until they ran out of ammo. The USSR also had to fight along a massive frontline which required some incredibly skilled leadership to do so and that they did win the war through more than brute force. But the inverse "Russia won the war by itself" narrative ignores how their Allies allowed them to not have to worry about manufacturing certain parts of their war effort. Or even that they didn't need to worry about Japan as America, China, India, Australia, etc. kept them busy. Putin instituted a law where the official narrative of The Great Patriotic War could not be told in a way that disagrees with the official government narrative, and that narrative is a very dumb one- that the Soviets won through sheer grit and with simple, hearty machines all on their lonesome. That narrative doesn't include Allied contributions or even the grittier details of Soviet ingenuity. And I can't imagine that Putin and all of his night school generals are fully aware of the true narrative, as they seemed to believe the History Dad narrative that they themselves push. Hell, they even invaded Ukraine like it was WW2, hauling overwhelming attack forces down roads into major cities, which most modern armies are aware doesn't work anymore and have been trained to fight against for the past half-century+. Pennsylvanian fucked around with this message at 16:32 on Sep 21, 2022 |
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Sep 21, 2022 16:28
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Donkringel posted:What are the odds that the soldiers who took the lucrative short term 6 month contract are going to be monetarily hard hosed by the stop loss contracts? The history of warfare is governments coming up with the best ways to screw over their own troops, followed by the laughably obvious consequences of such actions.
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Sep 21, 2022 16:34
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Pook Good Mook posted:One question I had is about the claim that they are only mobilizing veterans with combat experience.
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Sep 21, 2022 16:39
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Pook Good Mook posted:
There is a very simple test. Is the statement coming from the Russian government? If the answer is yes they are not telling the truth.
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Sep 21, 2022 16:42
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Donkringel posted:What are the odds that the soldiers who took the lucrative short term 6 month contract are going to be monetarily hard hosed by the stop loss contracts? It'll be interesting to see what impact this has between now and whenever the first wave of conscripts arrive. Morale was already very low and this has got to have a huge negative impact.
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Sep 21, 2022 16:44
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Pook Good Mook posted:One question I had is about the claim that they are only mobilizing veterans with combat experience. Your best piece of evidence here is that, in spite of *gestures at everything*, there’s virtually no evidence for systemic presence of conscripts in Ukraine, Crimea excluding. Green contract troops may still be coming just via the regular $3000/month deal, rather than through mobilisation. OddObserver posted:Local news/blog reports most likely. It's quite likely that the actual scenario is that the Russian government asked for seasoned veterans and will end up with local governors shipping whatever poor fuckers can't evade them to meet the quota. A valid caveat to my words. Outlets like The Insider and Mediazone will be among the first reporting this, if it comes down to Soviet-style dentist quotas of 500 wisdom teeth pulled in the next economic planning period.
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Sep 21, 2022 16:50
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Also, note that it is military experience, not combat experience. That's a considerably different pool of people.
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Sep 21, 2022 16:56
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cinci zoo sniper posted:
https://mobile.twitter.com/Mortis_Banned/status/1572615408095531008 In short: both people with and w/o experience targeted in Kursks. Those w/o (600 people) will get 2 weeks of training, those with who are under 30 straight to the unit (unclear if at front of the training portion)
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Sep 21, 2022 16:58
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https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1572597441530155009 I wonder if this is one of the drone boats that was on the list of promised equipment months back that we all wondered about.
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Sep 21, 2022 16:59
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It's interesting that conscripts can't be sent to fight on foreign soil, and when these referendums happen big chunks of Ukraine will no longer be "foreign". Given how desperate they are, I wonder if that's a trick they're going to try to use
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Sep 21, 2022 16:59
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PederP posted:Also, note that it is military experience, not combat experience. That's a considerably different pool of people. This is incorrect, they require both to be eligible for the partial mobilisation, as stated at least.
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Sep 21, 2022 16:59
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Chalks posted:It's interesting that conscripts can't be sent to fight on foreign soil, and when these referendums happen big chunks of Ukraine will no longer be "foreign". The only place these referendums will have any legal weight is Russia, so I'm sure this is part of it.
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Sep 21, 2022 17:00
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kemikalkadet posted:https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1572597441530155009 Very interesting. What the gently caress is that? I did never succeed finding as much as a brochure that would answer those drone boat supplies. OddObserver posted:Speaking of:  To explain the meme to non-speakers: mobilizatsyya - mobilisation mogila - grave mogilizatsyya - self explanatory meteoric entry to the Russian political meme scene cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 17:05 on Sep 21, 2022 |
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Sep 21, 2022 17:02
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cinci zoo sniper posted:This is incorrect, they require both to be eligible for the partial mobilisation, as stated at least. I just checked the decree, and weirdly, I cannot find any reference at all to a requirement for one or the other. Did I miss something or does decree just give the Russian MoD a carte blanche to define the criteria freely (as long as they don't collide with the rather scant grounds for dismissal given in other parts of the decree). quote:8. The top officials of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation shall arrange the conscription of citizens for military service for mobilization in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in the number and within the time limits determined by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation for each constituent entity of the Russian Federation.
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Sep 21, 2022 17:11
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cinci zoo sniper posted:
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Sep 21, 2022 17:14
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cant cook creole bream posted:I appreciate the effort, but I think I'd need a bit more context here. People are just joking that they’re being mobilised into cemetery, not into army.
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Sep 21, 2022 17:17
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cant cook creole bream posted:I appreciate the effort, but I think I'd need a bit more context here. mobilisation -> grave-ilisation. They're being mobilised to the grave.
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Sep 21, 2022 17:18
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PederP posted:I just checked the decree, and weirdly, I cannot find any reference at all to a requirement for one or the other. Did I miss something or does decree just give the Russian MoD a carte blanche to define the criteria freely (as long as they don't collide with the rather scant grounds for dismissal given in other parts of the decree). Officials are saying combat experience is required, but the decree itself does not https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1572539099160121345 https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1572482664917078016 Obviously there's nowhere near 300,000 people in Russia that meet that criteria and aren't already in Ukraine, so I doubt they'll be sticking to it. Unrelated: https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1572620631476248576 Look at all these people available to be sent to the front line in Ukraine! They'd be perfect - look, they even come with their own helmets and uniforms! Chalks fucked around with this message at 17:25 on Sep 21, 2022 |
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Sep 21, 2022 17:19
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PederP posted:I just checked the decree, and weirdly, I cannot find any reference at all to a requirement for one or the other. Did I miss something or does decree just give the Russian MoD a carte blanche to define the criteria freely (as long as they don't collide with the rather scant grounds for dismissal given in other parts of the decree). You’re correct, it’s incredibly vague - and intentionally so. The source for specific requirements, for the day so far, are state news spokespeople, who seem to be measuring temperature, so to say, with different versions. This is the leading one for the narrative: https://twitter.com/m_simonyan/status/1572537457182380040 Candidates must have 1) history of service, 2) relevant MOS, and 3) combat experience simultaneously. At the same time, OddObserver’s post is already challenging this claim, and you can see Simonyan herself tiptoeing around it as we speak too (just skim through this thread with a translator): https://twitter.com/m_simonyan/status/1572567024966180868
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Sep 21, 2022 17:22
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And yeah, it goes without saying that Russia doesn’t have 300k real combat veterans unless they’re about to send Afghanistan vets and policing force of Chechen wars into fray, what hasn’t there been sent already.
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Sep 21, 2022 17:24
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cinci zoo sniper posted:mobilizatsyya - mobilisation hah that might explain the word mo-kill-ization I saw in a translation with no explanation earlier.
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Sep 21, 2022 17:44
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Very interesting. What the gently caress is that? I did never succeed finding as much as a brochure that would answer those drone boat supplies. Ah you didn't see the poster? https://twitter.com/vesna_democrat/status/1572471468994482177
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Sep 21, 2022 17:50
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Atreiden posted:hah that might explain the word mo-kill-ization I saw in a translation with no explanation earlier. That's not a half bad translation imo
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Sep 21, 2022 17:51
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spankmeister posted:Ah you didn't see the poster? I saw it and had a solid laugh from it, just was too lazy to be the joke explainer at the time.
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Sep 21, 2022 17:59
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Charlz Guybon posted:5900 dead? Usually with the Russians you multiply their numbers by ten...but that seems a bit high. I've seen some analysts putting the number around 50,000 Russian KIA, though this includes Kadyrovites, PMC, LNR/DNR press-ganged soldiers, etc. I don't know if that number is the correct number, but it's plausible. Saladman posted:Do militaries break down wounded in terms of how wounded? Casualties can be easily double-counted. If someone is lightly wounded, recovers, comes back, and gets wounded again, that is counted as two Wounded in Action (WIA). If that person later dies, that's one KIA, for a total of three casualties. The US military does distinguish between types of wounded (I forget the acronyms, but it's basically return-to-duty or not), but doesn't typically distinguish when reporting casualties to the press. There's also a non-zero number of reported WIA who really weren't wounded much but someone wanted a medal ("Look, this shrapnel scratched me! It counts!"), and a non-zero number of soldiers who are wounded but don't report it because they don't want to be taken off the line (source: a friend of mine was lightly wounded in an IED attack but didn't report it because the company commander had been killed and he figured his unit had enough to worry about.) spankmeister posted:People keep saying this. Putin is unpredictable. He's been very predictable throughout, imo. I agree if you understand Russian leadership, culture, and political realities. It's common to call dictators "insane" but I think that usually just means "you don't understand their worldview or decision framework." North Korean leadership isn't insane--they're actually very rational, within the constraints of the information they receive and the culture in which they use that information to make decisions. The same goes for Putin, and experts like Michael Kofmann prove the point. If you find a world leader to be unpredictable, that usually means you don't have the right analysts in the room. BadOptics posted:What's ironic is that it almost seems Putin believes that poo poo (human wave tactics the entire war, one gun for every 5 men) was what actually happened and wants to give it a go lol It does seem that way sometimes. Which demonstrates just awful incompetence, because the Russian sources on World War 2 are apparently quite good (I'm going off of opinions of Western historians who used them after many of those sources became available in the 1990s). Naval chat: Does anyone have any OSINT that shows the broad locations of US naval assets? I'm curious if the US has any subs in the Black Sea (at least publicly known).
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Sep 21, 2022 18:03
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Ynglaur posted:Naval chat: Does anyone have any OSINT that shows the broad locations of US naval assets? I'm curious if the US has any subs in the Black Sea (at least publicly known). I imagine if we do it's largely for surveillance, so probably drones in the upper levels and maybe a "mothership" deep enough to escape detection, and whatever is there is plausibly deniable. So I'd say probably, but there would be no reasonable way to confirm.
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Sep 21, 2022 18:09
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I imagine their figure of 5900 is true in the sense that they dont even bother counting anyone from the periphery of the homeland of moscow/petersburg. Nice gently caress you to the rest of their country. Also no cheques in the mail.
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Sep 21, 2022 18:12
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Other than Turkey and Hungary who's the last holdout here? https://twitter.com/HenriVanhanen/status/1572618904975048704?s=20&t=IS99z-SmIVc0VTSo91sqgg
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Sep 21, 2022 18:16
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PerilPastry posted:Other than Turkey and Hungary who's the last holdout here? Slovakia, mostly due to their parliament not being in session though.
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Sep 21, 2022 18:18
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cinci zoo sniper posted:
This one is weird to me. First off that guy is 36, which seems pretty old to be recalled to the military, both because it’s probably been ages since he did anything, and normally this age would be the mid level manager or highly experienced technical worker type positions who would be harder to replace than some like 22 year old. When are 40 year olds ever top priority to draft? In Switzerland the mandatory service is all over at age 36 except for a very few career military people. Second off, how did he already get served by paper mail less than half a day after Putin’s announcement? If that had been the case it should have been ultra mega leaked everywhere days ago due to all the workers it would have required to get these in envelopes and mailed and etc. Yeah I know machines can print papers and stick them in envelopes, but it’s not so automated it all can happen in less than 4 hours.
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Sep 21, 2022 18:26
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GaussianCopula posted:Slovakia, mostly due to their parliament not being in session though. The parliaments of Hungary and Turkey are also in recess at the moment, in fact. Their delaying is... not mostly due to that, though.
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Sep 21, 2022 18:35
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Saladman posted:This one is weird to me. First off that guy is 36, which seems pretty old to be recalled to the military, both because it’s probably been ages since he did anything, and normally this age would be the mid level manager or highly experienced technical worker type positions who would be harder to replace than some like 22 year old. When are 40 year olds ever top priority to draft? In Switzerland the mandatory service is all over at age 36 except for a very few career military people. Simple--they've been planning this for days and the speech was intended to coincide with the notices. This isn't being done in a vacuum. Also, the people being restricted from leaving russia without a conscription board note are males 18-65. Russia just wants bodies on the front; they don't care about arthritic grandpas.
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Sep 21, 2022 18:36
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Saladman posted:This one is weird to me. First off that guy is 36, which seems pretty old to be recalled to the military, both because it’s probably been ages since he did anything, and normally this age would be the mid level manager or highly experienced technical worker type positions who would be harder to replace than some like 22 year old. When are 40 year olds ever top priority to draft? In Switzerland the mandatory service is all over at age 36 except for a very few career military people. Several things. First of all, papers in Russia are served by army or police, not postal workers. On the plausibility in general: 1) These could be fake, of course - making up one is not difficult. 2) They could’ve been served before the announcement, since the stated reason is the super generic “to update information about you” formulation used about everything. 3) This is a special mobilisation operation, so to say. 4) As per statements, the upper age for the limited mobilisation is like 65, and priority goes for senior officers and people with certain specialities. I remember seeing somewhere today that top 2 MOS are supposed to be drone pilots and comms specialists.
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Sep 21, 2022 18:37
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https://mobile.twitter.com/RobertJenrick/status/1572633299104964609
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Sep 21, 2022 18:43
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OAquinas posted:Simple--they've been planning this for days and the speech was intended to coincide with the notices. This isn't being done in a vacuum. Well that and Grandpa can drive a truck/fly a desk/etc and free up a young kid to go die pointlessly.
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