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qhat posted:Just the typical Russian playbook. Russian advantage is that they have shitloads more people than half of Europe combined, so eventually if you throw enough people at the problem they tend to win the war. The problem for them this time is that most of their population who have actual fighting experience and technical ability is beyond the draftable age, and the military industrial and logistics capacity of the old soviet days is long gone. If there is a legitimate morale and motivation problem too, yeah it’s not hard to see the Russian front lines completely collapse under it’s own incompetence. They don't even have such a manpower advantage, they have fewer people than Germany and France combined, and Russian pop is aging and declining precipitously. Which was speculated about as the real reason behind the invasion - a hail Mary attempt at an empire motivated by the knowledge that this is the last big military age demographic cohort Russia will ever have available.
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Sep 23, 2022 08:02
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Finnish border police reports crossings from Russia are up by 100% compared to last week. 6000 people yesterday.
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Sep 23, 2022 08:30
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steinrokkan posted:They don't even have such a manpower advantage, they have fewer people than Germany and France combined, and Russian pop is aging and declining precipitously. Which was speculated about as the real reason behind the invasion - a hail Mary attempt at an empire motivated by the knowledge that this is the last big military age demographic cohort Russia will ever have available. I know the perfect solution, send all of the remaining young people to the front lines! (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Sep 23, 2022 08:33
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Luigi's Discount Porn Bin posted:Sure, but most of these people aren't completely untrained, right? I don't take the conscription order seriously when it says combat veterans only, but almost all of these conscripts will have at least done a year of mandatory service. The conscripts were never really trained in the first place. Outside of a few elite units, even the contract soliders are barely trained by western standards. Even those elites just manage to be marginally competent.
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Sep 23, 2022 08:53
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steinrokkan posted:They don't even have such a manpower advantage, they have fewer people than Germany and France combined, and Russian pop is aging and declining precipitously. Exactly. Just Germany and France together have more people than Russia, and at least four times the GDP. And while they may have plenty of corruption and inefficiencies in their systems these problems are not remotely in the same league as the same problems in Russia. Basically Russia's only real assets here seem to be their legacy stockpiles of Soviet-era hardware (whatever percentage of this that actually works, or would be worth more than a dried dog turd against modern NATO-standard equipment), and the nuclear arsenal. Their strategic leadership doesn't seem to be doing them much good, for sure.
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Sep 23, 2022 09:25
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steinrokkan posted:They don't even have such a manpower advantage, they have fewer people than Germany and France combined, and Russian pop is aging and declining precipitously. It's interesting how many people still subconsciously assume Russia has a population equivalent to the USSR, when in actuality a solid half of the Soviet population was in all the non-Russian states.
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Sep 23, 2022 09:25
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steinrokkan posted:They don't even have such a manpower advantage, they have fewer people than Germany and France combined, and Russian pop is aging and declining precipitously. Which was speculated about as the real reason behind the invasion - a hail Mary attempt at an empire motivated by the knowledge that this is the last big military age demographic cohort Russia will ever have available.  Note this is also why these conscription photos coming out are full of people clearly in their 30-50's rather than in their early 20's. That cohort in Russia is small.
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Sep 23, 2022 09:27
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To people thirsting for conscripts blood: I invite you to take a run-up and hit a wall head-first. https://twitter.com/rednalasni/status/1572964598231498754?s=20&t=7U6fgPxxvC5JxzEuPZBeBg quote:My small hometown Baksan is protesting right now. Women took to the streets, stood at the administration building. All they got was an invitation to the local recreation center from the head of the city, who persuaded them not to resist and “not to create problems” https://twitter.com/rednalasni/status/1572965821529333760?s=20&t=7U6fgPxxvC5JxzEuPZBeBg quote:And then an unknown bearded *bleep* stepped onto the stage and began to agitate. And do you know what he said? It's obvious local gov have some kind of incentive to provide the manpower, which will absolutely destroy local communities. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Sep 23, 2022 09:30
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alex314 posted:To people thirsting for conscripts blood: I invite you to take a run-up and hit a wall head-first. Do you believe anyone here is thirsting for conscript blood?
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Sep 23, 2022 09:45
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alex314 posted:It's obvious local gov have some kind of incentive to provide the manpower, which will absolutely destroy local communities. The mobilization has been handed to the regions to carry out to shift some of the blame from the federal government (e.g. the Czar doesn't know what the boyars are doing to us)
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Sep 23, 2022 09:51
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Owling Howl posted:Do you believe anyone here is thirsting for conscript blood? That's the impression I get for some of the posts. Thankfully not a lot. Also interesting wrt mobilisation: according to Komsomolskaya Pravda (shitrag of highest degree, but official Kremlin source): "https://www.kp.ru/daily/27448/4651678/ posted:WHO WILL BE CALLED
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Sep 23, 2022 09:52
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Wonder if this affects the Wagner battle thralls they recruited from prisons. The first ones are coming up on 6 months served and would theoretically be eligible to be pardoned/released. Are they gonna be conscripted immediately again and send back?
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Sep 23, 2022 10:08
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GABA ghoul posted:Wonder if this affects the Wagner battle thralls they recruited from prisons. The first ones are coming up on 6 months served and would theoretically be eligible to be pardoned/released. Are they gonna be conscripted immediately again and send back? If any of them survive 6 months, why do you think they would be released if other soldiers got their service extended indefinitely
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Sep 23, 2022 10:21
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GABA ghoul posted:Wonder if this affects the Wagner battle thralls they recruited from prisons. The first ones are coming up on 6 months served and would theoretically be eligible to be pardoned/released. Are they gonna be conscripted immediately again and send back? It's a partial mobilization now so if I understand it correctly they can now officially refuse you leaving the front when your time slot is up, not just unofficially refuse it by screaming at you/beat you up.
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Sep 23, 2022 10:22
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https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1573138608848076806
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Sep 23, 2022 10:22
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if you survive six months on the front, congratulations you now have military experience and are eligible for mobilization
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Sep 23, 2022 10:27
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SirTagz posted:If any of them survive 6 months, why do you think they would be released if other soldiers got their service extended indefinitely Are they legally soldiers though? I thought PMC fighters usually have civilian status.
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Sep 23, 2022 10:28
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SirTagz posted:If any of them survive 6 months, why do you think they would be released if other soldiers got their service extended indefinitely Serving alongside hardened criminals and sociopaths is probably not gonna be great on conscript morale so that would be a reason to get rid of them, but this is Russia so lol, they are going to be encouraged to brutalize the new guys to "toughen them up"
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Sep 23, 2022 10:29
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Every accusation is a confession.
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Sep 23, 2022 10:35
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steinrokkan posted:Serving alongside hardened criminals and sociopaths is probably not gonna be great on conscript morale so that would be a reason to get rid of them, but this is Russia so lol, they are going to be encouraged to brutalize the new guys to "toughen them up" There was a recent post by Navalny from prison saying that the view of prisoners as battle hardened thugs is very wrong, most people serving there (and he's in a serious prison) are drug addicts, thieves and alcoholics most of them who stabbed their drinking buddies or wives to death while in delirium. They make poo poo soldiers The cool hitman types were in Wagner already, not sitting in prison
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Sep 23, 2022 10:39
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Luigi's Discount Porn Bin posted:Sure, but most of these people aren't completely untrained, right? I don't take the conscription order seriously when it says combat veterans only, but almost all of these conscripts will have at least done a year of mandatory service. A year of Russian conscription, up to 30 years ago. They may remember how they mowed the lawn for a general’s summer house, yes. qhat posted:Just the typical Russian playbook. Russian advantage is that they have shitloads more people than half of Europe combined, so eventually if you throw enough people at the problem they tend to win the war. The problem for them this time is that most of their population who have actual fighting experience and technical ability is beyond the draftable age, and the military industrial and logistics capacity of the old soviet days is long gone. If there is a legitimate morale and motivation problem too, yeah it’s not hard to see the Russian front lines completely collapse under it’s own incompetence. So, what’s “Europe” here? Poland, Ukraine, and Germany? Population of Europe is ~750 million, ~150 of which is Russia. GABA ghoul posted:Are they legally soldiers though? I thought PMC fighters usually have civilian status. I’m sure mercenaries most famous for war crimes will treat prisoners dependant on them with the due process.
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Sep 23, 2022 10:39
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Somaen posted:There was a recent post by Navalny from prison saying that the view of prisoners as battle hardened thugs is very wrong, most people serving there (and he's in a serious prison) are drug addicts, thieves and alcoholics most of them who stabbed their drinking buddies or wives to death while in delirium. They make poo poo soldiers Wasn't there a recruitment video from Wagner recently where they specifically said they didn't want drug users and alcoholics
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Sep 23, 2022 10:40
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TheRat posted:Wasn't there a recruitment video from Wagner recently where they specifically said they didn't want drug users and alcoholics Seems like that would significantly cut down on the available manpower then
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Sep 23, 2022 10:43
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Automatic Slim posted:Every accusation is a confession. I especially like the black man leering from behind the dabbing communist. Vote Putin or the western liberal commies will force diversity on us?
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Sep 23, 2022 10:46
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TheRat posted:Wasn't there a recruitment video from Wagner recently where they specifically said they didn't want drug users and alcoholics IIRC he said they were "careful" about drug users and if there is any doubt they will use a polygraph before accepting them. Also said they are "hesitant" about sex criminals, but understand that mistakes can happen. So, basically taking both no questions asked.
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Sep 23, 2022 10:50
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https://twitter.com/mattia_n/status/1573231493350326272 https://www.republicanleader.senate...7z6c/nkqbXIsLvd finding myself agreeing with Mitch McConnell is not what I expected today.
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Sep 23, 2022 10:56
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Enjoy posted:I especially like the black man leering from behind the dabbing communist. Vote Putin or the western liberal commies will force diversity on us?
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Sep 23, 2022 11:13
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Atreiden posted:https://twitter.com/mattia_n/status/1573231493350326272 This is everyone's weekly reminder that the Republicans are the war hawks over there, not the Democrats. It should come as absolutely no surprise to anyone that they are calling for more support for Ukraine. Red states employ a huge number of people in the USA MIC.
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Sep 23, 2022 11:19
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TheRat posted:Wasn't there a recruitment video from Wagner recently where they specifically said they didn't want drug users and alcoholics I would rank people illegally offering prison inmates mercenary service pretty low on the list of people I'd trust the word of. Zedsdeadbaby posted:This is everyone's weekly reminder that the Republicans are the war hawks over there, not the Democrats. It should come as absolutely no surprise to anyone that they are calling for more support for Ukraine. Red states employ a huge number of people in the USA MIC. Aren't the only people in vocal opposition to supporting Ukraine the minority in their own party, like a dozen or two of hardcore isolationist trumpers?
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Sep 23, 2022 11:22
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Lots of footage of the roundup of very willing soldiers coming out. https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1573247133448376320 https://twitter.com/typicaldonetsk/status/1573240665143664640 Twitter translate "Russian retired lieutenant colonel. 63 years old, diabetes, ischemia. Found fit. Two weeks of preparation and into battle!" https://twitter.com/GraniTweet/status/1573236469614903303 Mobilised on the tarmac
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Sep 23, 2022 11:28
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Atreiden posted:finding myself agreeing with Mitch McConnell is not what I expected today. So I mean, good? Feels dirty but as long as it ends up in real world support coming through, um 
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Sep 23, 2022 11:31
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fatherboxx posted:I would rank people illegally offering prison inmates mercenary service pretty low on the list of people I'd trust the word of. But at the same time, from the stories we've been hearing, it seems like Wagner's units are the only ones that are somewhat useful/effective so you'd think they picked people who are at least borderline functional
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Sep 23, 2022 11:42
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Are there any analyses of the impact that this will have on the Russian economy? I can't imagine this is going to be too helpful considering the already cumbersome burden of sanctions. On the other hand, I imagine some of these conscripts will be used for production.
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Sep 23, 2022 11:47
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Some Georgians are surprisingly getting a little bit annoyed at becoming a Russian refugee destination while part of their country is under occupation: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/09/18/we-dont-want-to-serve-occupiers-backlash-in-georgia-against-russian-emigres-a78792 Not a big story or anything, but I guess it's part of the increasingly public resent they're facing on pretty much every border.
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Sep 23, 2022 11:47
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TheRat posted:But at the same time, from the stories we've been hearing, it seems like Wagner's units are the only ones that are somewhat useful/effective so you'd think they picked people who are at least borderline functional While they’re a more competent light infantry force than generic conscript battalion of RuAF, a lot of those stories come from Wagner themselves. They have a fairly elaborate media operation, which was been working double-time this year. Pretty Boy Floyd posted:Are there any analyses of the impact that this will have on the Russian economy? I can't imagine this is going to be too helpful considering the already cumbersome burden of sanctions. On the other hand, I imagine some of these conscripts will be used for production. Too early to tell, we don’t have a robust understanding of the mobilisation scale and profile yet, in a statistical sense.
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Sep 23, 2022 11:47
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TheRat posted:But at the same time, from the stories we've been hearing, it seems like Wagner's units are the only ones that are somewhat useful/effective so you'd think they picked people who are at least borderline functional The competent (if you believe them, as cinci said) Wagner units are the ones that existed before the war - formed out of 2014 veterans that went through Syria and deployments in Central African Republic, i.e. the ones with actual combat experience. Contracted convicts cant possibly be effective as anything but being bait for Ukrainian artillery and the only criteria that their commanders care about is "would that zek shoot me and his unit given the chance".
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Sep 23, 2022 11:57
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Pretty Boy Floyd posted:Are there any analyses of the impact that this will have on the Russian economy? I can't imagine this is going to be too helpful considering the already cumbersome burden of sanctions. On the other hand, I imagine some of these conscripts will be used for production. At the moment I think every thing is way to vague and up in the air for any sort of worth while analyses to be done. Like the Russian government barely seems to know exactly what they're doing and what the result will be, and who would trust what they say publicly. Like in time probably get a bit better picture of what's happening, and people who are good at analyzing Russian economic stuff might be able to say, but at the moment as far as I can tell it's just sort of a chaotic unknown. Also just really hard reading those accounts of people getting called up/trying to flee. Just seems such an obviously terrible decisions, invariably leading up some sort of terrible result.
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Sep 23, 2022 12:15
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Comparing personal accounts, Russian mobilisation appears to be more hectic than Ukrainian mobilisation in the very early days of the invasion.
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Sep 23, 2022 12:21
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Paladinus posted:Comparing personal accounts, Russian mobilisation appears to be more hectic than Ukrainian mobilisation in the very early days of the invasion. But it seems pretty clear putin waited until the last possible moment, certainly fearing the blowback, instead of preparing in advance. Which would've made for a smoother process, ironically.
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Sep 23, 2022 12:27
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