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Paladinus posted:Comparing personal accounts, Russian mobilisation appears to be more hectic than Ukrainian mobilisation in the very early days of the invasion. It's playing out like a dark comedy. The scenes on video alone are astounding. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Sep 23, 2022 12:43
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I would highly recommend not taking prigozhin of all people at his word, particularly when speaking to prisoners. With no hyperbole, he is one of the most prolifically evil people in Russia and literally nothing he communicates should ever be taken at face value.
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Sep 23, 2022 12:49
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TheRat posted:Wasn't there a recruitment video from Wagner recently where they specifically said they didn't want drug users and alcoholics Here's an interview with a PoW that was recruited by Wagner at a Russian penal camp: https://youtu.be/hxsHFkxYOtY His story isn't 100% consistent but he's definitely saying that most of the recruits of his group were drug addicts.
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Sep 23, 2022 12:51
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Paladinus posted:Comparing personal accounts, Russian mobilisation appears to be more hectic than Ukrainian mobilisation in the very early days of the invasion. They clearly didn't plan at all. This is just the bureaucrats working towards the furher and drafting as many men as they can to win brownie points
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Sep 23, 2022 12:52
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Charlz Guybon posted:They clearly didn't plan at all. This is just the bureaucrats working towards the furher and drafting as many men as they can to win brownie points Gotta hit those bonus-relevant Q3 KPIs (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Sep 23, 2022 13:00
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I would guess that if Russia's mobilisation system assumed a high rate of resistance and a lot of bad starting information then one solution would be to initially process everyone and then release the ones you don't need in tranche one, with a warning that anyone protesting will find themselves rapidly called back for tranche two and sent to the fight.
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Sep 23, 2022 13:05
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freebooter posted:It's interesting how many people still subconsciously assume Russia has a population equivalent to the USSR, when in actuality a solid half of the Soviet population was in all the non-Russian states. I forget this all the time, and it's a great point. On the way to school this morning my 14-year-old daughter said, "Look, the sky beautiful and is blue and yellow. Jesus must have given us that this morning for Ukraine." For any Ukrainians itt, I know it's a small thing for a child half a world away to say such a thing, but know that we're not forgetting about you.  Re: Russian mobilization - The anecdotes certainly suggest that more than 300,000 are being planned for. We should remember it's a mob state, though: local officials may try to round up as many men as possible because that allows as many bribes to get out of services as possible. If you're a local commissar and have a quota of 500, why not round up 1,000 and shake-down 500 of them for "get out of the draft" money?
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Sep 23, 2022 13:37
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Another aspect of Russia looking weaker and weaker is that international sanctions are getting more effective. Uzbekistan has suspended the use of MIR credit cards. MIR is the Russian SWIFT alternative. Two Turkish banks also banned MIR after the USA reminded them this week, that ignoring sanctions has consequences. The banks probably decided it's not worth it anymore. https://twitter.com/MoscowTimes/status/1573280991875137536 Link from the tweet: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/09/23/uzbekistan-suspends-russias-mir-payment-system-a78877
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Sep 23, 2022 13:46
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Reports of Iranian drones used over Odessa https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1573276414664912897 Very far from the frontline
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Sep 23, 2022 14:17
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HonorableTB posted:Putin likes to wave his nukes around, sure, but what is weird is that the US doesn't typically respond to them, let alone send warnings such as this. It's worth noting, imo Article says they've been communicating this privately for months so it doesn't look like it's a response to Putin's announcement of mobilization/latest sabre rattling. HonorableTB posted:Does this count as Clancychat? This struck me as a good and reassuring point which I hadn't considered before. On the actual immediacy of the threat and the spectrum of options available to Putin: "James M. Acton, co-director of the nuclear policy program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said it doesn’t make sense at this point to game out U.S. responses because there is such a wide range of possible Russian actions — from an underground nuclear test that doesn’t hurt anyone to a large-scale explosion that kills tens of thousands of civilians — and there are no signs Putin is close to crossing the threshold. “If he was really thinking very seriously about using nuclear weapons very imminently, he almost certainly would want us to know that,” Acton said. “He would much rather threaten nuclear use and have us make concessions than actually have to go down the path of nuclear use.”" edit: Removed tweet already posted. Apologies. PerilPastry fucked around with this message at 14:33 on Sep 23, 2022 |
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Sep 23, 2022 14:18
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HonorableTB posted:Does this count as Clancychat? No, same as with everything else that enters the primary news cycle, it’s fair game with an unofficial grace period of ~1-3 days, depending on my view on the sustainability and quality of the ensuing conversation.
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Sep 23, 2022 14:34
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It may just be social media distortion but it sure seems like this "limited" mobilization is way more disruptive than it should be if they were only calling up 300,000 reservists.
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Sep 23, 2022 15:15
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Russians waking up to the realisation that maybe this partial mobilisation isn't so well planed. https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1573255747529482241 https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1573251830871728133 https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1573305823060963330
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Sep 23, 2022 15:27
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https://twitter.com/kofmanmichael/status/1573322313507946497 Edit: @fatherboxx https://twitter.com/litavrinm/status/1573328694898196480 cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 16:13 on Sep 23, 2022 |
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Sep 23, 2022 16:10
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Eeesh. Remember when Ukraine was putting Territorial Defense units on the line with only week's worth of training? It was in the few weeks before HIMARS arrived, when Russia was firing 30-50K artillery shells/day. Ukraine was suffering hundreds of KIAs a day until it stabilized. Russia is about to do the same thing, but with people with even lower morale or reason to be there. It's going to be a very bloody Autumn. 
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Sep 23, 2022 16:13
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Thanks, my life last few days has been informing friends and coworkers about best ways to dodge (rule no 1 - never cooperate, dont sign anything)
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Sep 23, 2022 16:19
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Pook Good Mook posted:They might have once. The heavy equipment has sat in open air storage for 3 decades. To say nothing of the metal scrapping and part scavenging. I've shot early 70s AKs stored by army (not in Russia, oiled, covered in paper in boxes) in the 2000s, and they were perfectly conserved. Still pretty accurate at 250/500m. Also shot early 70s ones that were used for training all that time and while not as accurate they were still perfectly functional. About tanks, idk, but any yard should be able to salvage at least 50% of stored tanks with some work. These are not hi-tech MBTs we use now in the west. They are simple devices that can be made functional with some polish and spit. They only want them to look tough and shoot shells; we're not talking electronics and computers here. Start engine, oil everything, check if nothing is leaking, move it around, clean / rebore gun, rinse repeat.
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Sep 23, 2022 16:42
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Mood: https://youtu.be/DHCzaiJEoEY
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Sep 23, 2022 16:43
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Ynglaur posted:Eeesh. Remember when Ukraine was putting Territorial Defense units on the line with only week's worth of training? It was in the few weeks before HIMARS arrived, when Russia was firing 30-50K artillery shells/day. Ukraine was suffering hundreds of KIAs a day until it stabilized. I kinda agree with Kofman that it could work out for them. Ukraine is currently advancing very slowly, which gives Russia time to train a few thousand ppl to a slightly useful standard, and Ukraine doesn't really have the kind of ability to buzzsaw through conscripted humans that Russia briefly had with their massive arty ammo use. This kinda looks like it could conceivably let Russia fill out units and stabilize the line without open rebellion breaking out at the home front. If Ukraine manages to set up another massive lunge again in the next week or two and takes out another 500 vehicles in Luhansk or Cherson that might again change things - lots of losses, knock to morale etc. But it's not cut and dried imo.
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Sep 23, 2022 16:53
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Yes definitely, they could help plug the gaping holes in the units and keep the whole thing from collapsing again. Have some news from my tank driver guy. He's recovering well (injury in the groin area) and can walk and run now. Says they've been fighting in the Bahmut area, and he, like most in the hospital, are not really looking forward to going back. Supposedly though there are still many volunteers but they're still not taking just everyone and preferring people with military experience which sounds like a good thing.
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Sep 23, 2022 17:11
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aphid_licker posted:I kinda agree with Kofman that it could work out for them. Ukraine is currently advancing very slowly, which gives Russia time to train a few thousand ppl to a slightly useful standard, and Ukraine doesn't really have the kind of ability to buzzsaw through conscripted humans that Russia briefly had with their massive arty ammo use. This kinda looks like it could conceivably let Russia fill out units and stabilize the line without open rebellion breaking out at the home front. If Ukraine manages to set up another massive lunge again in the next week or two and takes out another 500 vehicles in Luhansk or Cherson that might again change things - lots of losses, knock to morale etc. But it's not cut and dried imo. Im not saying they will be useless but shoving conscripts as bodies to the frontline will likely make them more vulnerable than you would expect. Lets think of an scenario. A bunch of conscripts with min training is sent to the front to relieve and rotate an existing front line unit. As they get into place, UAF launches an attack, maybe big maybe just localized. My expectations that these new ppl getting bombarded and then attacked is that they are more likely than not to panic and cause major confusion and ineffectiveness. If they start routing that causes even more issues as they will actively hinder the reserves from being able to get back to face the UAF. If I was the UAF, i would specifically target any new concentrations of these conscripts because by definition, they are the worst trained, worst lead, worst armed part of any RAF forces being deployed.
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Sep 23, 2022 17:15
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https://twitter.com/poliitikasse/status/1573220666555383814 I think there's a slight mistranslation and the guy was a 1st Lieutenant. Still a 1st Lieutenant should not be commanding an entire engineering battalion.
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Sep 23, 2022 17:17
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Mix of stuff. The conscription news is drowning out a lot of other things, which is good for Ukrainian op sec if nothing else? Maybe? Regime decided it was time to turn on the patriotism visuals again https://twitter.com/jason_corcoran/status/1573339532304711680?s=20&t=4dZBRfKm5vPzVCHLVyzF6w Putin shoring up his real supporters https://twitter.com/ABarbashin/status/1573330735376875520?s=20&t=4dZBRfKm5vPzVCHLVyzF6w *Rattle rattle* https://twitter.com/tassagency_en/status/1573286121693487105?s=20&t=4dZBRfKm5vPzVCHLVyzF6w Cant enlist me if the enlistment office burns down *taps head* https://twitter.com/EilishHart/status/1573325673627787265?s=20&t=4dZBRfKm5vPzVCHLVyzF6w Interesting. This won't make Kadyrov more popular https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1573316700757528578?s=20&t=4dZBRfKm5vPzVCHLVyzF6w Full article because holy loving poo poo the headline somehow manages to bury the lede and it gives a good picture of what Kadyrov is quote:Vladimir Putin’s mobilization order will not be carried out in Russia’s Chechen Republic, the republic’s head, Ramzan Kadyrov, announced at a meeting on Sep. 21 with the operational headquarters for conducting Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine, the “Caucasus. Realities” web site reported the same day. Belarus being a bit less coy about their resistance this time https://twitter.com/akihheikkinen/status/1573329838894731266?s=20&t=4dZBRfKm5vPzVCHLVyzF6w In "yeah we know but it needed to be officiallly said" news. https://twitter.com/UN_HRC/status/1573268438369312768?s=20&t=4dZBRfKm5vPzVCHLVyzF6w Official statement link - note that while it's all in general terms this is about war crimes, including horrific violence against children - https://www.ohchr.org/en/statements/2022/09/update-chair-independent-international-commission-inquiry-ukraine-51st-session More for the list https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1573328525930766338?s=20&t=4dZBRfKm5vPzVCHLVyzF6w even calling this a referendum is a disgrace. gives it too much implied legitimacy https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1573333979490824192?s=20&t=4dZBRfKm5vPzVCHLVyzF6w https://twitter.com/hallbenjamin/status/1573257782391963648?s=20&t=4dZBRfKm5vPzVCHLVyzF6w And sometimes there are other consequences https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1573247114087657473?s=20&t=4dZBRfKm5vPzVCHLVyzF6w
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Sep 23, 2022 17:31
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aphid_licker posted:I kinda agree with Kofman that it could work out for them. Ukraine is currently advancing very slowly, which gives Russia time to train a few thousand ppl to a slightly useful standard, and Ukraine doesn't really have the kind of ability to buzzsaw through conscripted humans that Russia briefly had with their massive arty ammo use. This kinda looks like it could conceivably let Russia fill out units and stabilize the line without open rebellion breaking out at the home front. If Ukraine manages to set up another massive lunge again in the next week or two and takes out another 500 vehicles in Luhansk or Cherson that might again change things - lots of losses, knock to morale etc. But it's not cut and dried imo. Problem with poorly trained conscripts on an extremely long, thinly manned front line is that if they get surprised by tanks, half of them are going to break and run as happened at Izyum. More so given that morale and training will probably continue to diminish. However, its probably wrong to think of these guys as all poorly trained. Plenty of people went home earlier in the war when contracts ran out or simply refused to go in the first place. Those are professional soldiers which can now be called up and put directly into units. Not an endless supply, but short term that is going to help stabilize the lines, which right now are not looking great for Russia.
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Sep 23, 2022 17:31
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Zhanism posted:Im not saying they will be useless but shoving conscripts as bodies to the frontline will likely make them more vulnerable than you would expect. Russian Army training apparently takes place in the units, not at training centers. So you put them into the line units in more quiet sectors and train them there for a bit. Then you can rotate them into a hairier spot and rotate out the ppl who were there previously, repeating the process with them. Ukraine can't just push anywhere at will at short notice, there are reasons they are pushing where they are pushing right now, so you have *some* ability to do this and generate troops that are decently trained by the standards of the current phase of this war. If you can do this faster than Ukraine can kill ppl you are improving your position.
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Sep 23, 2022 17:31
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Atreiden posted:https://twitter.com/mattia_n/status/1573231493350326272 I wonder if now that Putin played his mobilization card, all the cool toys will be on the table finally. Clearly there's can be no logistical excuse for ATACMS and other relatively self-contained gear so it had to have been held back to avoid "escalation". Hopefully with lend-lease coming into effect, it'll open the floodgates.
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Sep 23, 2022 17:53
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mobby_6kl posted:Coming back to this. Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake. Not saying that ATACMS or a bunch of other equipment shouldn't be made available anyway. But I don't see this so much as an escalation. (Actual escalation was Russia hitting civilian targets with missiles in revenge for losing ground. OTOH going through with the PoW exchange was an example of de-escalation.)
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Sep 23, 2022 18:00
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Brain65 posted:I've shot early 70s AKs stored by army (not in Russia, oiled, covered in paper in boxes) in the 2000s, and they were perfectly conserved. Still pretty accurate at 250/500m. Also shot early 70s ones that were used for training all that time and while not as accurate they were still perfectly functional. About tanks, idk, but any yard should be able to salvage at least 50% of stored tanks with some work. These are not hi-tech MBTs we use now in the west. They are simple devices that can be made functional with some polish and spit. They only want them to look tough and shoot shells; we're not talking electronics and computers here. Start engine, oil everything, check if nothing is leaking, move it around, clean / rebore gun, rinse repeat. With enough cosmoline guns hold up just fine. A dip in a strong solvent and it comes right off and they'll shoot again with just a bit of lube. That doesn't work with the heavy equipment because the gaskets and seals in the motors and such all break down over long time frames. Everything needs to be taken apart, cleaned, gaskets and seals replaced, oiled, and put back together again. Its a big PITA and its time consuming. At least if you're doing it right. If you don't care and are just pushing whatever off out of the depot onto the frontlines direct from railheads then sure anything goes. Combat effectiveness will be poo poo though because a huge portion of the equipment will either be flat out non-operational or will break down quickly. The guys in the field won't have the time, parts, or the equipment to fix it either. Hell they might not even have the know how at all given how crap Russian training is apparently.
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Sep 23, 2022 18:00
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Very much  --- condition of one of the recently exchanged Ukrainian POWs:https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1573346176396664833
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Sep 23, 2022 18:03
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aphid_licker posted:gives Russia time to train a few thousand ppl to a slightly useful standard There's already videos from Russian recruiters and such outright stating at least half of these conscripts are only going to get like 2 weeks of training....at the front. The other half won't be getting much better than that. And who knows what equipment they'll be getting. They're straight up gun and cannon fodder that'll be at best a speed bump for a professional Ukrainian force. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Sep 23, 2022 18:05
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It occurs to me that if this “partial mobilization” in service of an offensive “special military operation” is this chaotic, that doesn’t bode terribly well for what might happen in the event of a genuine second Great Patriotic War where Russia is attacked. And more importantly, Russians themselves might be thinking that. Feels like Putin whipping up fears of foreign aggression and then showing his whole rear end in his ability to protect against that aggression is maybe not a great combo for legitimacy.
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Sep 23, 2022 18:24
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Nenonen posted:Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake. The only logical explanation I can see for withholding gear was avoiding or postponing mobilization for as long as possible. Now that Pootie did it, that's it, nothing else he can do. So time to start packing all the cool stuff, IMO.
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Sep 23, 2022 18:25
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KitConstantine posted:*Rattle rattle* On the one hand, they want to pursue wars of aggression and to sabre rattle. On the other, they still want to be seen as a reliable and rational great power observing decorum and respect for the international order. It truly makes for some mixed messaging https://twitter.com/arktinentuuli/status/1573351385881518085?s=20&t=wuSSyLgahhOmdDTW-xd2JQ (He also reiterates Russia's commitment to their established nuclear doctrines.) Incidentally, do we know if annexation is going to open the door for Russia's spring conscripts being deployed now? All things being equal, I have to imagine that they're in a higher state of readiness/training than the reserves being called up at the moment.
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Sep 23, 2022 18:30
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mobby_6kl posted:Well I don't know if doubling your military in the theater is "escalation" or not, I don't want to get bogged down in semantics. What I meant is that mobilization was the only card Putin had to play, other than more war crimes (inevitable) or nukes (not gonna happen). Putin didn't postpone mobilization because he feared that more advanced equipment would be made available for Ukraine. He mobilized because his army needs new blyat. What he was afraid of are the consequences in Russia - and that it won't bring victory any closer, it just gives a bit of more time to see if the west loses interest in the war. Nenonen fucked around with this message at 18:42 on Sep 23, 2022 |
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Sep 23, 2022 18:39
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Nenonen posted:Putin didn't postpone mobilization because he feared that more advanced equipment would be made available for Ukraine. He mobilized because his army needs new blyat. He seems to be gambling that Winter will once again save russia - and that Europe will freeze and lose heart and pull their support from Ukraine and ... I dunno, force the US to do the same?
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Sep 23, 2022 19:00
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Nenonen posted:Putin didn't postpone mobilization because he feared that more advanced equipment would be made available for Ukraine. He mobilized because his army needs new blyat. This entire thing is like watching an out of control cruise ship drifting into a pier, and way too late the captain has gone to Full Speed Ahead. No one is losing interest in this outside turning away in abject horror.
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Sep 23, 2022 19:05
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Doccers posted:He seems to be gambling that Winter will once again save russia - and that Europe will freeze and lose heart and pull their support from Ukraine and ... I dunno, force the US to do the same? Multiple drone sightings outside multiple Norwegian oil installations recently. Suspected state actor, but they don't say which state. I'm guessing Sweden is at it again.
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Sep 23, 2022 19:11
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I can imagine practical arguments for pursuing this policy but I truly find couching it in these terms morally reprehensible https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1572918824118226945?s=20&t=fXdt4xrB75YJb3Q6WoNMzA
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Sep 23, 2022 19:11
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PerilPastry posted:I can imagine practical arguments for pursuing this policy but I truly find couching it in these terms morally reprehensible I think they're daring Russians to respond. Russia can't act outraged without acknowledging that people are trying to run. Doccers posted:He seems to be gambling that Winter will once again save russia - and that Europe will freeze and lose heart and pull their support from Ukraine and ... I dunno, force the US to do the same? The longer this goes on, the happier the US gets. Europe is transitioning to gas imports from countries other than Russia, and that can only be good for American producers.
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Sep 23, 2022 19:16
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Pook Good Mook posted:I think they're daring Russians to respond. Russia can't act outraged without acknowledging that people are trying to run. I'm just trying to figure out what Putin's plan is here so I'm kinda grasping at straws.
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Sep 23, 2022 19:21
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