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Orthanc6 posted:Putin is paranoid, but yes him not setting foot anywhere vaguely near Ukraine is a normal good idea for someone who is solely responsible for starting the war. Especially with mobilization less than a week in, I'd give it a coin flip between him getting capped by a Ukrainian partisan or a disgruntled Russian draftee. I think OddObserver's point was that Kramatorsk is in Ukrainian-held territory, so of course he's not going to show up there.
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Sep 26, 2022 19:19
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If I were Putin I'd probably considering taking a single step within HIMARS range of Ukrainian held territory to be about as safe as drinking bleach, and I don't even think that counts as paranoia.
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Sep 26, 2022 19:29
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https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1574461955963850757?s=20&t=hZt-VHdOEho_bHO7H--k6A
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Sep 26, 2022 19:43
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Bremen posted:If I were Putin I'd probably considering taking a single step within HIMARS range of Ukrainian held territory to be about as safe as drinking bleach, and I don't even think that counts as paranoia. He doesn't even have to be particularity paranoid to assess the incredible risk of unsecured information pertaining to his location. Spotty secrecy isn't compatible with visits to a warzone, and he knows it. But I guess I'm not sure where the idea comes that he'd even bother even for the propaganda press. Also, russia has likely lost the logistical capacity to transport the 50 foot desks necessary for him to sit at and give curt, stone-faced notice of appreciation to people sitting far away on the other side
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Sep 26, 2022 20:16
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Oof, be careful scrolling Twitter and Telegram today. There's a war crimes post circulating and there's an uncensored photo of a dead Ukrainian soldier who  had his eyes, tongue, vocal chords, and ears removed before death
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Sep 26, 2022 20:32
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HonorableTB posted:Oof, be careful scrolling Twitter and Telegram today. There's a war crimes post circulating and there's an uncensored photo of a dead Ukrainian soldier who Thanks for the heads up. I read the spoilered part and that was enough to make my stomach churn.  Anyone capable of such horrific acts is simply not human.
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Sep 26, 2022 20:55
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How do they know it was before? Horrific.
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Sep 26, 2022 20:56
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Crows Turn Off posted:How do they know it was before?
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Sep 26, 2022 21:04
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OddObserver posted:Putin not showing up to regional Armed Forces of Ukraine headquarters should not be considered paranoia... Phlegmish posted:I think OddObserver's point was that Kramatorsk is in Ukrainian-held territory, so of course he's not going to show up there. lol meant to say krasnodar, my bad. should've been contextually apparent from the 'near sochi' part, but that's pre-coffee posting Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 21:08 on Sep 26, 2022 |
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Sep 26, 2022 21:05
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Haven't seen this posted here yet: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-congress-negotiators-set-12-bln-new-ukraine-aid-2022-09-26/quote:Negotiators to a stop-gap spending bill in the U.S. Congress have agreed to include about $12 billion in new aid to Ukraine in response to a request from the Biden administration, a source familiar with the talks said on Monday.
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Sep 26, 2022 21:09
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Cicero posted:Haven't seen this posted here yet: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-congress-negotiators-set-12-bln-new-ukraine-aid-2022-09-26/ Every once in a while the sums involved in MIC just make me pause. I could permanently fix large swathes of the US food regulatory system - a significant percentage of the country's infrastructure and economy, with global health consequences - with a billion dollars. The most expensive IRS modernization requests would require, in sum total, to fix almost everything, less than $12 billion. I'm not opposed to the aid funding or anything like that, it's just remarkable how easily this stuff slots into our budget by comparison to civic infrastructure. Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 21:31 on Sep 26, 2022 |
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Sep 26, 2022 21:24
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edit: possibly misattributed date on those https://twitter.com/janis_sarts/status/1574435782689017857 Seemingly demothballed late-60s KrAZ-255 trucks in Chelyabinsk, with 4 mpg engines. Ukrainian-made, ironically. https://twitter.com/shaunwalker7/status/1574478922619691011 https://twitter.com/jakecordell/status/1574482191945547779 https://twitter.com/jackdetsch/status/1574453328737468416 https://twitter.com/kevinrothrock/status/1574437251987263490 cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 21:43 on Sep 26, 2022 |
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Sep 26, 2022 21:25
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Discendo Vox posted:Every once in a while the sums involved in MIC just make me pause. I could permanently fix large swathes of the US food system - a significant percentage of the country's infrastructure and economy, with global health consequences - with a billion dollars. The most expensive IRS modernization requests would require, in sum total, to fix almost everything, less than $12 billion. I'm not opposed to the aid funding or anything like that, it's just remarkable how easily this stuff slots into our budget by comparison to civic infrastructure. Oh yeah, despite my interests in military hardware, I'm always upset at how easily we can find $100 Billion for the military but then start folding out our pockets when it comes to a few billion for education.
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Sep 26, 2022 21:27
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cinci zoo sniper posted:https://twitter.com/janis_sarts/status/1574435782689017857 Reasonably sure I've seen these photos in the early days of the full-scale invasion, and it's actually from a Victory Day parade preparations.
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Sep 26, 2022 21:33
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https://twitter.com/the_ins_ru/status/1574492544867729408?t=tCmza9w0DyPyZvYdBLlnDg&s=19 Moscow cops raped an anti-war protestor and showed the video to his girlfriend that they also tortured
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Sep 26, 2022 21:34
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Paladinus posted:Reasonably sure I've seen these photos in the early days of the full-scale invasion, and it's actually from a Victory Day parade preparations. Tracking source down, the author is being dogpiled on TG and not taking it well, saying that he just reposted photos sent to him by someone else. I’ll edit in a warning. https://t.me/chelurban/10220?comment=17178
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Sep 26, 2022 21:42
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Paladinus posted:Reasonably sure I've seen these photos in the early days of the full-scale invasion, and it's actually from a Victory Day parade preparations. Odd thing to use for that, but I guess Studebakers.may not.be ideologically correct.
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Sep 26, 2022 21:44
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cinci zoo sniper posted:edit: possibly misattributed date on those If that isn't misattributed then any sort of widescale use of 4MPG trucks over long distances is going to lead to some Afrika Korps level problematic supply mathematics. How much exactly of the supply load of each truck will be eaten by its petrol/diesel use on each round trip..
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Sep 26, 2022 22:10
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Haven’t they already called up people with no military experience whatsoever?
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Sep 26, 2022 22:10
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ZombieLenin posted:Haven’t they already called up people with no military experience whatsoever?
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Sep 26, 2022 22:13
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Russia wouldn't want Snowden drafted anyways, that would look really bad for any future defectors who might provide Russia with something valuable.
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Sep 26, 2022 22:21
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Rewrote this post multiple times over a few days but maybe short and sweet is best: I keep reading that this can become a frozen conflict because assaults are pretty costly and deadly so Ukraine has to be methodical and careful with how they do things and at best the war might be going for more years as Ukraine fights bloody liberation battles over cities of various sizes. On the other hand, everything else seems to suggest that Russia is already overburdened holding the territory they have and all Ukraine seems to need to do is win the waiting game as Russia gets weaker over time and they get stronger. And also, these newly enlisted units are paper tigers and can only hurt Russia’s organization and weak supply lines. Both these ideas are simple and clean (while also being seemingly contradictory) and I can already hear Perun berating this post since war is definitely messy and confusing. In short I think I lost visibility of what Ukraine’s next biggest challenges are gonna be during this war and the likelihood they’ll hit 2014 borders. What does that look like?
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Sep 26, 2022 22:21
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Blut posted:If that isn't misattributed then any sort of widescale use of 4MPG trucks over long distances is going to lead to some Afrika Korps level problematic supply mathematics. How much exactly of the supply load of each truck will be eaten by its petrol/diesel use on each round trip.. Trucks in military applications get incredibly poor fuel economy. I doubt their existing truck fleet is doing much better. Highly efficient modern Euro VI compliant diesels for on highway trucking on perfectly smooth roads at optimal speeds get about 35l/100km or roughly 6.7 MPG.
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Sep 26, 2022 22:24
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Blut posted:If that isn't misattributed then any sort of widescale use of 4MPG trucks over long distances is going to lead to some Afrika Korps level problematic supply mathematics. How much exactly of the supply load of each truck will be eaten by its petrol/diesel use on each round trip.. I got bad news about the mileage your average military vehicle gets. There are things in US inventory still rocking old screaming diesels. Even the HMMWV uses an updated version of the 6.5l Detroit Diesel, and those got poo poo mileage in pickups (gently caress, do I ever hate, hate, hate that motor). Except for the newest of kit, most military vehicles would not even come close to meeting civilian mileage and emissions regulations. The KRaZ engines are pretty underpowered for the size of those trucks, which doesn't help. Peep videos of Russian trucks on trains lately. Lots of them, of all sizes, carry the standardized fuel tank apparatus on back. I think most of the gasoline powered trucks left front line service. This would be the three digit Ural 6x6s, Gaz-66 4x4s, and UAZ jeeps and vans. If they're pulling out old stock to send up, there will be a mix of gas and diesel vehicles roaming around looking for a fuel truck every few hours. Not ideal.
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Sep 26, 2022 22:40
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Herstory Begins Now posted:lol meant to say krasnodar, my bad. should've been contextually apparent from the 'near sochi' part, but that's pre-coffee posting No worries, I had to look it up myself to make sure. Though it is kind of interesting just how much obscure, highly specific geographical trivia I (and probably most of us) have absorbed from this conflict. Me in 2013: Ukraine is to the west of Russia Me in 2022: Ukrainian forces are slowly encircling the Lyman salient, taking control of Oleksandrivka in the process. I am, of course, referring to the Oleksandrivka in Donetsk Oblast, not the one in Kherson Oblast. Speaking of, the Ukrainians are still making limited but steady progress around Lyman: KitConstantine posted:Pocket around Lyman getting closer and closer Would be nice if they could pull it off and capture a bunch of POWs and material.
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Sep 26, 2022 22:48
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Regarding freezing the war, every single previous conflict Russia has “frozen” has been in a position where Russia has had the initiative and power balance has heavily favored them. That’s not the case here.
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Sep 26, 2022 23:06
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Russia used frozen conflicts as a way to exert control over former Soviet states, typically it would deploy military forces to back the weaker faction and make everyone involved curry favor from them. Russia is the weaker faction in Ukraine.
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Sep 26, 2022 23:11
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buglord posted:Both these ideas are simple and clean (while also being seemingly contradictory) and I can already hear Perun berating this post since war is definitely messy and confusing. In short I think I lost visibility of what Ukraine’s next biggest challenges are gonna be during this war and the likelihood they’ll hit 2014 borders. What does that look like? We’re in uncharted waters militarily, but the next fortnight will likely be sufficiently telling for that. In addition to military challenges, Ukraine will have to deal with keeping the lights on financially, perhaps in some less metaphorical ways too. Maybe not to leave you out entirely in the cold militarily - if Ukraine can retake Kherson, there’s basically nothing actually useful for Russia to hold to between the river, passages to Crimea, and Donetsk city. Retaking Kherson is easier said than done, and any river crossing wouldn’t become accessible just by taking the right bank of the city, but the area past it is just small towns, a nuclear power plant, and the razed Mariupol’.
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Sep 26, 2022 23:22
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Well, don't forget there's massive gas fields and coal in the Donbass and under the sea of Azov. Although gas and especially coal are on their way out, it could still be a major economic boon for Ukraine in the medium term. However, petroleum companies don't want to commit if there's Russians around loving poo poo up.
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Sep 26, 2022 23:26
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spankmeister posted:Well, don't forget there's massive gas fields and coal in the Donbass and under the sea of Azov. Although gas and especially coal are on their way out, it could still be a major economic boon for Ukraine in the medium term. However, petroleum companies don't want to commit if there's Russians around loving poo poo up. They’re not massive, and their boons are out of practical reach even if Russia would capitulate and withdraw from Ukraine immediately. It would be some money for Ukraine, though, you’re right on that - I’m just disputing by proxy the occasionally popular idea that Russia did this because it’s about to economically profit from fossil fuels in the Ukrainian southeast.
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Sep 26, 2022 23:34
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cinci zoo sniper posted:They’re not massive, and their boons are out of practical reach even if Russia would capitulate and withdraw from Ukraine immediately. It would be some money for Ukraine, though, you’re right on that - I’m just disputing by proxy the occasionally popular idea that Russia did this because it’s about to economically profit from fossil fuels in the Ukrainian southeast. Oh, I think for Russia any economic incentive wrt gas was more about stopping Ukraine from becoming a competitor to Russia rather than exploiting the gas reserves themselves.
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Sep 27, 2022 00:14
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spankmeister posted:Oh, I think for Russia any economic incentive wrt gas was more about stopping Ukraine from becoming a competitor to Russia rather than exploiting the gas reserves themselves. Can’t say I agree with that either, since the gas reserve in question would last less than a decade even if Ukraine would be able to export 100% of the most optimistic volume estimate to the EU. The talk of gas reserves always felt like an attempt to rationalise Putin’s ideologic and egocentric approach motivations in “American” terms. I’m sure Russians are content with this disruption as a side effect, but as even a secondary or a tertiary goal the math on this doesn’t check out for me - no infrastructure in Ukraine; easy to just undercut, out-lobby, or out-lawyer them; impracticality of long-term contracts given the geography and the volume of the gas fields; and so on. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 00:25 on Sep 27, 2022 |
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Sep 27, 2022 00:23
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This war sure isn't about gas, that's for sure.
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Sep 27, 2022 00:29
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Orthanc6 posted:Let's take this moment to remind everyone that it is possible to be a strong critic of US policy without selling one's self to a much worse dictator. The enemy of your enemy is not by default your friend, and may in fact be a much worse enemy. Reality Winner thanks you for noticing her.
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Sep 27, 2022 00:56
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Moktaro posted:Reality Winner thanks you for noticing her. Reality Winner would be a very good username
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Sep 27, 2022 01:16
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Early maps https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1574549888326590464?t=IglGXwgmu-hCSbnT1KJveA&s=19 ISW more generous, per the usual https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1574535858568445952?t=mN6D6P6DDFOnJZb_ucZc5w&s=19 Def mon didn't do much of a thread today (yet) https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1574530518195978245?t=45JG1J57dPzu03frdFvdDA&s=19 Why? https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1574551160400248849?t=DSBpPh96ZkR5PQqvamoIRQ&s=19
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Sep 27, 2022 01:54
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KitConstantine posted:
Almost all the current western osint that isn't like flash/firms tracking and other kinds of data analysis is just working off of what Russians put out and Russian output is currently like 90% about the mobilization shitshow and the dagestan unrest and so on. Ukraine has also been getting better and better at minimizing info coming out for months straight and even the better mappers tend to be 2-3 days behind what is happening. The current pushes have remarkably little hard info out there publicly beyond that they're happening and even that is largely unremarked until several days in or there are results that can't be ignored. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 02:10 on Sep 27, 2022 |
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Sep 27, 2022 02:02
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i don't know if this was the authors intention, but this read to me like russia was ignoring his diplomatic status, which would be pretty shocking but the detention was very temporary, and they're giving him 48 hours to leave the country, which seems to be in line with international norms https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Russia-detains-Japan-diplomat-for-allegedly-seeking-sensitive-info of course, the general consul being the one to make the money drop in exchange for secrets rather than a public security agent posing as an attache seems really loving buck wild, and leads me to assume the charges are bogus
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Sep 27, 2022 04:14
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I'm hearing about insane videos on Telegram. I don't have the stomach to go look for that stuff, but this is what's been described yo me https://mobile.twitter.com/MalcontentmentT/status/1574277002424913920 (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Sep 27, 2022 04:46
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:i don't know if this was the authors intention, but this read to me like russia was ignoring his diplomatic status, which would be pretty shocking How big is the Japanese consular office in a small city like Vladivostok? There might only be 4 staff.
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Sep 27, 2022 04:55
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