|
Chalks posted:Lots of maps at the moment agree on one thing: Russia is in serious trouble in Lyman Ridkodub seems to be solid https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1574792157197750277 Ur welcome Somebody fucked around with this message at 23:01 on Sep 27, 2022 |
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 19:11
|
|
tweet is safe, but don't scroll up
|
|
| # ? Jun 5, 2024 09:58 |
|
|
Deteriorata posted:The pipelines aren't destroyed, just damaged. They can be repaired in fairly short order if there is the will to do so. In season 2 russia and ukraine will need to combine forces against a dangerous new adversary. Aqua-ISIS is coming. I don't really know what to think of this because it seems stupid for Russia to do it, but the US antagonizing them when ocean infrastructure is so vulnerable to being hit the same way seems really dumb too. Meow Tse-tung fucked around with this message at 19:19 on Sep 27, 2022 |
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 19:12
|
|
|
For context that guy's the chairman of the EU parliament's delegation to the US, was foreign minister of Poland previously, and is married to Anne Applebaum.
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 19:14
|
|
|
Bremen posted:Do you have a source on that? Because it seems to me it would be extremely difficult to repair a section of underwater pipe damaged in an explosion. The resources to repair the pipes are readily available. It's going to be a political matter as to whether they get used to actually repair it or not. As we learn who damaged the pipe and why, it will become clearer whether or not they get repaired and who foots the bill for it if they do. Since they're Gazprom pipelines, I assume it's up to Gazprom to get them fixed. If Russia doesn't want them fixed, then they won't be regardless of the difficulty.
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 19:19
|
|
|
What is a random shitpost from a right wing Polish MEP adding to the conversation?
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 19:19
|
|
|
Deteriorata posted:The pipelines aren't destroyed, just damaged. They can be repaired in fairly short order if there is the will to do so. That pipe interior is now exposed to sea water, i don't know how long it will remain fit for service. This info seems to focus on the exterior of the pipes (explosions were never factored in i guess  ) https://www.corrosionpedia.com/2/1432/corrosion-101/an-intro-to-pipeline-corrosion-in-seawater
Just Another Lurker fucked around with this message at 19:25 on Sep 27, 2022 |
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 19:21
|
|
|
Just Another Lurker posted:That pipe interior is now exposed to sea water, i don't know how long it will remain fit for service. You send a pig through it, it would take a long time of exposure to degrade it. Your worried about the outside of the pipe because the water is around it forever. Patching it without Russia cooperating is going to be challenging.
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 19:30
|
|
|
Dr Kool-AIDS posted:For context that guy's the chairman of the EU parliament's delegation to the US, was foreign minister of Poland previously, and is married to Anne Applebaum. He is also terminally pro reaganite for what’s it worth. He is The USA number one guy, he is our Borat. Anne Frank Funk fucked around with this message at 20:33 on Sep 27, 2022 |
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 19:32
|
|
|
So how long until I start reading about how this very legitimate referendum is proof of Ukrainian aggression against their own people? https://twitter.com/JamWaterhouse/status/1574760080259665922
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 19:44
|
|
|
Alchenar posted:So how long until I start reading about how this very legitimate referendum is proof of Ukrainian aggression against their own people? Can't even do a sham referendum correctly, but I guess it really isn't the point of all of this.
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 19:46
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1574827402630500356 If this isn't bullshit, you can put a  in Lyman.
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 19:50
|
|
|
I dunno if anyone missed it over the weekend because I certainly did, there's a Perun video on captured equipment with The Chieftain (tank nerd): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNLTE75B0OsOneMoreTime posted:Can't even do a sham referendum correctly Well 100% would've looked suspicious I think.
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 19:55
|
|
|
mobby_6kl posted:I dunno if anyone missed it over the weekend because I certainly did, there's a Perun video on captured equipment with The Chieftain (tank nerd): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNLTE75B0Os To clarify, I meant that 95% and above is in my mind not even trying to pretend it's fair.
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 19:59
|
|
|
Barrel Cactaur posted:You send a pig through it, it would take a long time of exposure to degrade it. Your worried about the outside of the pipe because the water is around it forever. I know this is probably a technical term but I'm instead going to assume you're talking about the farm animal
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 20:01
|
|
|
OneMoreTime posted:Can't even do a sham referendum correctly, but I guess it really isn't the point of all of this. I am curious as to how they are going to fake turn out.
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 20:02
|
|
|
mobby_6kl posted:
I love that they docked Kherson 1 (one) %. It really adds verisimilitude to the whole thing.
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 20:05
|
|
|
Fray posted:
I don't speak (presumably) Russian, so I have no idea what this is about or what they're saying. Can you summarize?
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 20:06
|
|
|
Ukraine should do a referendum where the outcome is 99% of Moscow wants to join Ukraine.
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 20:06
|
|
|
Pretty telling which parties are pushing the USA did it narrative https://twitter.com/partisangirl/status/1574685985115607040
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 20:07
|
|
|
OddObserver posted:I am curious as to how they are going to fake turn out. They didn’t look like they’re trying much. I think the alleged turnout for Kherson and Zaporizhzhia was stated today at about 60%, and around 80% for LDNR. Not that it matters, they didn’t even bother pretending that voting is happening for real. A few vatnik parades in Russia, and some unironic videos of people voting while armed soldiers are watching over them lol.
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 20:09
|
|
|
Phlegmish posted:I don't speak (presumably) Russian, so I have no idea what this is about or what they're saying. Can you summarize? I don't speak Russian either, but what people are saying is that apparently Ukraine controls Ukraine controls Nove, Katerynivka, and Kolodiazi, in addition to all the earlier stuff. Here is a sketch I've done on top of Defmon's maps where the dark blue loop is new probably-true area Ukraine has taken, and light blue loops indicate some rumors that are floating around right now. 
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 20:09
|
|
|
cinci zoo sniper posted:They didn’t look like they’re trying much. I think the alleged turnout for Kherson and Zaporizhzhia was stated today at about 60%, and around 80% for LDNR. Not that it matters, they didn’t even bother pretending that voting is happening for real. A few vatnik parades in Russia, and some unironic videos of people voting while armed soldiers are watching over them lol. I meant in terms of absolute numbers. A lot of places are kinda ghost towns in reality. Edit: oy vey, of course there is some Russian mil telegrammer that writes with yats OddObserver fucked around with this message at 20:15 on Sep 27, 2022 |
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 20:12
|
|
|
I feel like the US would be a fair bit more subtle than setting off a bunch of simultaneous explosions that could only be interpreted as an act of sabotage. Arranging for a ship to ‘accidentally’ drag its anchor over the pipe and rip a chunk out of it would be more their style.
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 20:12
|
|
|
MegaZeroX posted:I don't speak Russian either, but what people are saying is that apparently Ukraine controls Ukraine controls Nove, Katerynivka, and Kolodiazi, in addition to all the earlier stuff. Thanks! I had a question about the apparent Oleksandrivka pocket in the other thread, but it looks like it's already been cleaned up. It took them a while, but it does seem like they're now on track to successfully encircle Lyman.
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 20:14
|
|
|
MegaZeroX posted:I don't speak Russian either, but what people are saying is that apparently Ukraine controls Ukraine controls Nove, Katerynivka, and Kolodiazi, in addition to all the earlier stuff. Worth mentioning this from DefMon might mean the Dibrova rumours are incorrect: https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1574807085220564993
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 20:16
|
|
|
Chalks posted:Worth mentioning this from DefMon might mean the Dibrova rumours are incorrect: Ok that seems a lot more plausible. That section of the frontline has to be one of the most heavily fortified given that Russia has been pushing around there for more than a month. Breaking through it so quickly would be surprising.
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 20:24
|
|
|
Here's another map showing the situation to the north of Lyman based on Russian reports. It's looking like a collapse in this area now, they'll have to abandon Drobysheve soon or risk getting completely cut off. https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1574841822433742886 There are also reports that settlements to the north of the Ukrainian salient are sparsely defended, if at all. This may mean the Ukrainians are more advanced in that direction than shown if there are no Russians reporting their positions. Chalks fucked around with this message at 20:36 on Sep 27, 2022 |
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 20:30
|
|
|
MegaZeroX posted:I don't speak Russian either, but what people are saying is that apparently Ukraine controls Ukraine controls Nove, Katerynivka, and Kolodiazi, in addition to all the earlier stuff. "Clashes on the outskirts of Torskoye" isn't accounted for on your drawing. That's a big time problem for Russia if it's true.
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 20:30
|
|
|
Does Lyman still have large escape routes or are those presumably set to close up in the next 24 hours
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 20:42
|
|
|
Staluigi posted:Does Lyman still have large escape routes or are those presumably set to close up in the next 24 hours If that southern salient is true, they're already hosed. Hope they surrender or withdraw now, otherwise it'll be a record quarter for Lada sales.
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 20:43
|
|
|
Staluigi posted:Does Lyman still have large escape routes or are those presumably set to close up in the next 24 hours That eastern route going Lyman > Zarichne > Kreminna is supplying that entire area. The northern breakthrough doesn't threaten that route immediately. The rumoured breakthrough in the south towards Debrova and Tors'ke would be unbelievably bad for them, although there's no solid evidence of it yet besides some Russian sources.
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 20:55
|
|
|
smug n stuff posted:The ISW has been extremely credulous throughout the war of claims made by the Ukrainian MoD, passing them along essentially verbatim. They are good about making maps but they have consistently shared wild rumors about the status of Russian forces that seem totally unknowable, simply because the Ukrainian General Staff posted them in their facebook status report. Honest question: has the Ukrainian General Staff been mostly accurate? I haven't followed and validated them closely enough to know one way or the other.
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 21:24
|
|
|
KitConstantine posted:It also demonstrates the capability to gently caress up more than just gas pipelines - internet cables, for instance. Could someone please explain to me why "plausible deniability" just does not exist in the Russian Playbook?
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 21:29
|
|
|
Alchenar posted:So how long until I start reading about how this very legitimate referendum is proof of Ukrainian aggression against their own people? I'm sorry, but all i can think about regarding those extremely legitimate numbers is: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYA0jV3Illk&t=73s (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 21:29
|
|
|
Craig K posted:I'm sorry, but all i can think about regarding those extremely legitimate numbers is: Very interesting, here are my thoughts on the legitimacy of this "referendum" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y7pz7CqWTMs (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 21:31
|
|
|
Ynglaur posted:Honest question: has the Ukrainian General Staff been mostly accurate? I haven't followed and validated them closely enough to know one way or the other. I wouldn’t suggest taking them as the sole source for anything - it’s not in their professional interest to share accurate information in a timely fashion.
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 21:31
|
|
|
Mister Facetious posted:Could someone please explain to me why "plausible deniability" just does not exist in the Russian Playbook? That's because they prefer implausible deniability: no matter how ridiculous your claim and no matter how many times you lie, the two-siders in Western media will faithfully broadcast your claims.
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 21:31
|
|
|
Staluigi posted:Does Lyman still have large escape routes or are those presumably set to close up in the next 24 hours If the Ukrainians are blocking both Torskoye and Kolodiazi as claimed, then all the roads are closed.
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 21:33
|
|
|
OddObserver posted:That's because they prefer implausible deniability: no matter how ridiculous your claim and no matter how many times you lie, the two-siders in Western media will faithfully broadcast your claims. It's already happening. Clancychat and conspiracy theorycrafting is running wild wrt blaming the Americans for this.
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 21:33
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 5, 2024 09:58 |
|
|
Ynglaur posted:Honest question: has the Ukrainian General Staff been mostly accurate? I haven't followed and validated them closely enough to know one way or the other. Perun compared their numbers to Oryx’s and while the MoD was higher it wasn’t anything like Russia’s “we’ve destroyed three Ukrainian airforces worth of planes”. Given that kind of OSINT likely underestimates the true numbers it’s probably an honest enough summary, albeit limited by the usual fog of war.
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 21:35
|
|