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New video by Anders Puck Nielsen, about the mobilization and its goals. He thinks putin's goal is to try to end the war quicker with a surge™ but instead instead he's trying to simultaneously expand the scope outside of Donbas and so it's unlikely to work. Plus we can expect more pointless nuclear saber rattling. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s136Dei3Sx8cinci zoo sniper posted:Latvian is relatively simple to explain - Latvian government is in charge of it. 
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Sep 29, 2022 18:29
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Latvian is relatively simple to explain - Latvian government is in charge of it. Weren't there relatively recent news reports that LG will be unable to fulfill it's obligations, as it only has 0.3TWh stored, with an additional 1TWh reserved for undisclosed buyers? https://zinas.tv3.lv/latvija/neka-personiga/gazes-vadu-infrastruktura-vairakkart-rezervetas-jaudas-nelaujot-iesuknet-dabasgazi-incukalna/
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Sep 29, 2022 18:30
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Oh yeah. I don't consider those refugees 'Brave' for doing that. It is the 'neutral' thing. The thing that I go 'Yeah, I'd probably be trying to get out myself' And I feel the 'neutral' thing of someone that's escaping an autocratic regime is 'Yeah, sure, absolutely' They don't deserve a medal or something. But they deserve our compassion as fellow humans.
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Sep 29, 2022 18:31
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Countries have been receiving ukrainian refugees en masse since the war started. Mostly women and children. How can we ensure their safety when Russians with tourist visas start claiming their right to travel freely?
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Sep 29, 2022 18:32
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a podcast for cats posted:Weren't there relatively recent news reports that LG will be unable to fulfill it's obligations, as it only has 0.3TWh stored, with an additional 1TWh reserved for undisclosed buyers? I somehow have entirely missed this, but skimming the article briefly, this does look a bit worse than I thought. Latvenergo did pump 4-5 TWh for the infrastructure and industry, when Latvijas Gāze did pump 0.3 TWh, out of 1.15 TWh the state ordered them to provision for heating homes. I have maybe skimmed the wrong parts from phone, but I don’t see anything about the 1 TWh reserved by LG for undisclosed buyers - not sure how that would work even, since I think they’ve lost the legal right to sell gas to anyone other than Latvian households. If it’s there, it’ll just get repossessed, I guess. The big fuckup of the article to me is Conexus saying that there was 2 TWh worth of reserved capacity that ended up being used by no one.
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Sep 29, 2022 18:44
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MassiveSky posted:Countries have been receiving ukrainian refugees en masse since the war started. Mostly women and children. How can we ensure their safety when Russians with tourist visas start claiming their right to travel freely? Same as we make sure locals are not killing people on a lark.
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Sep 29, 2022 18:45
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MassiveSky posted:Countries have been receiving ukrainian refugees en masse since the war started. Mostly women and children. How can we ensure their safety when Russians with tourist visas start claiming their right to travel freely? Presumably using the same refugee-managing institutions that prevent violence and ensure security among all displaced populations, regardless of nationality. If it's the tourist visas in particular that are a problem, maybe some new refugee statuses should be defined for Russians fleeing the state, to encourage more of them to do that instead of joining the war. There's been efforts to encourage Russian soldiers on the battlefield to surrender or defect, using leaflets or other communications to tell them how to do that. Everyone recognizes that it's the right thing to do in those cases to give people an option that doesn't force them into violence, if at all possible. Treating Russians escaping the regime as the enemy, either before they're forced into uniform or after, is deeply counter-productive and displaces the blame from where it truly belongs.
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Sep 29, 2022 18:50
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I somehow have entirely missed this, but skimming the article briefly, this does look a bit worse than I thought. Latvenergo did pump 4-5 TWh for the infrastructure and industry, when Latvijas Gāze did pump 0.3 TWh, out of 1.15 TWh the state ordered them to provision for heating homes. I have maybe skimmed the wrong parts from phone, but I don’t see anything about the 1 TWh reserved by LG for undisclosed buyers - not sure how that would work even, since I think they’ve lost the legal right to sell gas to anyone other than Latvian households. If it’s there, it’ll just get repossessed, I guess. It's in the article. LSM mentions it more explicitly here, including my favourite phrase in modern day Latvian - komercnoslēpums. The way I understand it, it was sold off well in advance. Another article claims that the state prosecutors have started an inquiry. https://www.lsm.lv/raksts/zinas/eko..._campaign=theme Wrt Russian exiles at the borders, who is Katz/Кац? There's a couple of interesting Twitter threads that keep popping up that refute a podcast (?) of his, but I have no idea of who he is supposed to be.
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Sep 29, 2022 18:52
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Same as we make sure locals are not killing people on a lark. Local "disappearing agents" aren't really a thing.
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Sep 29, 2022 18:55
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Putin made some mouthsounds today https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1575542673758625792?s=20&t=COk_hHqIs4frVR-4uImLoA Including about the pipeline, finally. The Russians at the UN announced calling the security council meeting yesterday though https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1575543706329157633?s=20&t=COk_hHqIs4frVR-4uImLoA Full recap, google translated quote:Telephone conversation with President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan One line in a relatively long call summary. Interesting.
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Sep 29, 2022 19:00
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It was emphasized that the voting took place in conditions of transparency, in full compliance with the norms and principles of international law.
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KitConstantine posted:Putin made some mouthsounds today So his UN talk will be "If I did it", but honestly at this point I wouldn't be surprised if he just went with "Yes I did it and I'll do it again". Russia shot itself in the foot to show just how willing it is to shoot us in the foot. Great timing too, with the annexation apparently going through tomorrow, Zelenskyy is calling for an emergency UNSC meeting. So we got 2 UN meetings where the entire planet will declare that Russia is committing hard crimes and Russia's response will be "nah I didn't do it, you did".
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Sep 29, 2022 19:11
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KitConstantine posted:Putin made some mouthsounds today Is that from today? Maybe any Russian speakers ITT can weigh in on what else was said? A bit more on the polling. https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1575511609094586368?s=20&t=mV7lBLRB9WMSm0v6qXjeog https://twitter.com/AndrKolesnikov/status/1575157742108811269?s=20&t=cq6JokBwSNSJXM8kNf_vJw Hard to read this as anything other than Putin being extremely sensitive to signs of domestic pressure, right? Btw I felt this was a very good article on how Russia uses state controlled surveys as well as the dynamics that drive the answers "This spiral of under-representation and silence, which is strengthened by state propaganda and manipulative opinion surveys, is a blessing for autocrats. Overblown support demonstrated by surveys can be used as a tool to demonstrate broad support of the regime to the public and send a signal to the elite to prevent defection. More importantly, surveys that inflate government support can be used to discipline citizens. Social psychologists demonstrate that people often use the responses of others to an issue as cues to form their own opinions. Previous research has demonstrated that Russian citizens’ attitudes towards the regime and its actions are, to a significant degree, driven by what they see as the prevailing consensus in society" https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/russia-opinion-polls-war-ukraine/ Considering the biases at play here, the actual support for the war continuing has to be even more dire than these numbers indicate
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Sep 29, 2022 19:17
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While I don't agree with it I can see why Georgia is so against taking in thousands of Russian draft dodgers. When protecting Russians is used as a scapegoat to invade multiple countries including Georgia 15 years ago there are real national security questions involved in harbouring them. What if Russia demands them back under threat of force? Georgia is a poor country which probably doesn't have the facilities to hold refugees properly anyways.
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Sep 29, 2022 19:49
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Saladman posted:Isn't that border often a shitshow in terms of delays, even besides the theoretical border draft? A friend of mine's dad is an Armenian trucker, and he spent like 7 days stuck in a border queue there, stuck outside of Vladikavkaz with a ton of other trucks, back in March on a return trip from Kharkiv to Yerevan. I don't remember the exact context, although I think I posted it at the time. Yes, they often shut it down in winter/spring due to avalanches. Right now it is, of course, completely hosed due to sheer amount of people that this mountain pass cannot accomodate. In addition it is the only land border checkpoint with Russia so there is Georgian traffic, Armenian traffic and Turkish transit.
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Sep 29, 2022 19:49
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https://mobile.twitter.com/shikast_/status/1574790169105924096 An issue with Russian refugees is they're very much colonialists: it's not like they're coming out of a vacuum, they've been trying to erase the local culture and language for centuries. The Baltics are struggling to integrate their Russian minorities and a big refugee community is likely to be very resistant to even learning the local language (with the benefit, of course, that they forced the locals previously to learn a lot of Russian). A lot of post-Soviet states still have very weak national identities so it is a serious concern.
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Sep 29, 2022 19:57
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MassiveSky posted:Local "disappearing agents" aren't really a thing. So, you’re saying that police is not the appropriate institution for enforcing civic order among people recently arriving into a country - that presumably they can only deal with people who have lived there for an indeterminate amount of time. What makes you conclude so? Additionally, what form of institution would you thus be proposing for policing daily conduct of these arrivals? a podcast for cats posted:It's in the article. LSM mentions it more explicitly here, including my favourite phrase in modern day Latvian - komercnoslēpums. The way I understand it, it was sold off well in advance. Another article claims that the state prosecutors have started an inquiry. Oh, I see. I also found where that was in TV3 article, what a poo poo layout. Yeah, this looks like yet another classic public procurement fuckup, to join OIK and vaccines in the history books. Pretty sure it’s going to play out with the new government just nationalising everything after Providus does the math on their predicted ratings with heating off. Maksim Kats is a former pro poker player and a Moscow municipal deputy (think if Imanta had its own duma). He’s a political swindler with links all over the spectrum - Navalnyi, Liksutov, Sobchak, doing both anti- and pro-vaccine videos, and so on. As far as non-obvious Russian political influencers go, this person is very high on my list of “hear them out only when there are no other options”. PerilPastry posted:Hard to read this as anything other than Putin being extremely sensitive to signs of domestic pressure, right? Correct. Also, the referenced pollster is not state-controlled. Levada was classified as a “foreign agent” during the fallout from Crimea annexation.
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Sep 29, 2022 20:01
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Paladinus posted:Even Latushka says that Lukashenko doesn't want to get involved in the war more than he is now. Allowing deployment of Russian soldiers in Belarus for another attack on Kyiv wouldn't be out of question, even if now the numbers being floated are up to 120k. Participation of Belarusian soldiers is a different matter and is less likely, although not as unlikely as three months ago. I used to work with somebody from Belarus and he said most folks there knew the whole "there are Nazis in Ukraine" is complete and total nonsense, hence there's never really been much support for the invasion.
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Sep 29, 2022 20:03
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Nenonen posted:Many people also fled Russia right after the invasion started, but I think most returned within a month or two, because there is jackall a Russian can do in Europe without a job or other source of income, and tourist visa lasts only for 90 days anyway. A lot of them already went to places like Georgia, Armenia and Turkey where Russians can live for extended times without a visa. There's even a thing where the first wave of Russians who came in the first months of the war and have already settled a bit are annoyed by the new wave ruining things for them.
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Sep 29, 2022 20:13
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A few reports that Yampil has been liberated. This town is to east of Lyman and is the only thing between Ukrainian forces and the Lyman > Zarichne road that's the only Russian lifeline to the city. https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1575567186906972160 https://twitter.com/IgorKar03352504/status/1575566238121852928
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Sep 29, 2022 20:28
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Chalks posted:A few reports that Yampil has been liberated. This town is to east of Lyman and is the only thing between Ukrainian forces and the Lyman > Zarichne road that's the only Russian lifeline to the city.  https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1575487566551613442 So denazification seems to be going pretty well
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Sep 29, 2022 20:31
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cinci zoo sniper posted:So, you’re saying that police is not the appropriate institution for enforcing civic order among people recently arriving into a country - that presumably they can only deal with people who have lived there for an indeterminate amount of time. What makes you conclude so? Additionally, what form of institution would you thus be proposing for policing daily conduct of these arrivals? I'm saying that although it is probably the goon consensus to spend a gorillion dollars in the middle of a recession to vet every one of the new arrivals, it would wouldn't make any sense in a realpolitical fashion.
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Sep 29, 2022 20:57
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The dumbest treason. (Yes I know its not treason) https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1575563899503607823 Army doctor and crazy wife in the US, both originally from Russia, were so fired up about the special operation that they tried to figure out how they could help. They thought about enlisting in the Russian army but instead decided to reach out to what they thought was the Russian embassy to hand over important secrets. Undercover FBI Agent: "So, what could you give us that would help Russia in this conflict?" Dumb Traitors: "Well, we have access to some medical files for US military officers, that would be super helpful, right?" FBI Agent: "......... sure, OK".
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Sep 29, 2022 21:09
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https://twitter.com/waragainstputin/status/1575495378556059654 This dude is so high on speed it's no surprise he thinks NATO is already here e: not supporting the use of the word "orc" here.
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Sep 29, 2022 21:14
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I'm wary of any source that mentions "orcs"
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Sep 29, 2022 21:16
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Malcolm Nance cannot be stopped
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Sep 29, 2022 21:17
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socialsecurity posted:I'm wary of any source that mentions "orcs" You can rest assured then that it's a repost of a video from War Gonzo, which is a known GRU propaganda channel, so it evens out I suppose.
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Sep 29, 2022 21:18
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socialsecurity posted:I'm wary of any source that mentions "orcs" Do you think they deepfaked a video with a russian propagandist or something?
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Sep 29, 2022 21:19
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Rigel posted:The dumbest treason. (Yes I know its not treason) It's worst than that. The army doctor is being misgendered in a lot of media, she's actually the first publicly-out-and-serving trans person in the US military.
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Sep 29, 2022 21:24
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https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1575577211939131392 Nothing better than capturing an important strategic town and potentially a load of Russian PoWs in response to Putin's absurd annexation plans.
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Sep 29, 2022 21:25
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mobby_6kl posted:Do you think they deepfaked a video with a russian propagandist or something? It's a video with a Russian propagandist (WarGonzo) but there's nothing deepfaked about it. (Does that even look remotely deepfaked? Cmon.) Here's a screenshot from their telegram. I'm not going to link it as they don't deserve the traffic, but you can go see for yourself if you please. 
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Sep 29, 2022 21:26
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Paladinus posted:Even Latushka says that Lukashenko doesn't want to get involved in the war more than he is now. Allowing deployment of Russian soldiers in Belarus for another attack on Kyiv wouldn't be out of question, even if now the numbers being floated are up to 120k. Participation of Belarusian soldiers is a different matter and is less likely, although not as unlikely as three months ago. Im a bit late on this but where is russia getting these 120K soldiers? if they are the new draftees, they may as well shoot themselves before crossing because we saw that UAF Territorials did to their professional BTGs. What the gently caress will these draftees have that improves on that?
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Sep 29, 2022 21:30
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spankmeister posted:
on the other hand, if you do go to his telegram, he reports half an hour ago that AFU has broken through to Stavky, cutting off Drobycheve. https://t.me/wargonzo/8519
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Sep 29, 2022 21:32
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Zhanism posted:Im a bit late on this but where is russia getting these 120K soldiers? if they are the new draftees, they may as well shoot themselves before crossing because we saw that UAF Territorials did to their professional BTGs. What the gently caress will these draftees have that improves on that? They're also dancing perilously close to the start of mud season (again).
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Sep 29, 2022 21:32
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Pook Good Mook posted:They're also dancing perilously close to the start of mud season (again). That would be perfect. Another invasion in mud season, but this time with untrained infantry vs HIMARS.
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Sep 29, 2022 21:33
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Young Freud posted:It's worst than that. The army doctor is being misgendered in a lot of media, she's actually the first publicly-out-and-serving trans person in the US military. I simply don't understand how a transperson could decide to commit treason in order to defect to Russia - a country with a regime openly using slurs like 'homonazi' without a hint of irony and which openly persecutes LGBT+ people. If the allegations of espionage/treason are true, then it's a mind-boggling display of cognitive dissonance to throw in one's lot with Russia. I mean seriously - look at which groups and people in the US are on team Putin. It's one thing to be so staunchly anti-west, anti-US, anti-capitalist, nihilist or whatever, that one prefers Kremlin to Washington. But the kind of mindworms required to commit treason (which comes with rather serious consequences if discovered) for a regime that openly wants to kill you? I honestly didn't think that kind of idiocy existed. Sorry for my rant. I'm just floored.
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Sep 29, 2022 21:34
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PederP posted:I simply don't understand how a transperson could decide to commit treason in order to defect to Russia - a country with a regime openly using slurs like 'homonazi' without a hint of irony and which openly persecutes LGBT+ people. If the allegations of espionage/treason are true, then it's a mind-boggling display of cognitive dissonance to throw in one's lot with Russia. I mean seriously - look at which groups and people in the US are on team Putin. It's one thing to be so staunchly anti-west, anti-US, anti-capitalist, nihilist or whatever, that one prefers Kremlin to Washington. But the kind of mindworms required to commit treason (which comes with rather serious consequences if discovered) for a regime that openly wants to kill you? I honestly didn't think that kind of idiocy existed. Sorry for my rant. I'm just floored. It might help to know that her wife was apparently pushing for it very hard. The story said that the doctor was reluctant and scared of breaking the law. She had to talk her trans spouse into it.
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Sep 29, 2022 21:39
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Zhanism posted:Im a bit late on this but where is russia getting these 120K soldiers? if they are the new draftees, they may as well shoot themselves before crossing because we saw that UAF Territorials did to their professional BTGs. What the gently caress will these draftees have that improves on that? The implication is that it will either be the mobilised themselves, or the more experiences soldiers from other places far from the front line that the mobilised are supposed to replace. Again, I very much doubt that 120k is a real number. Even with some time to prepare, Belarus would hardly be able to accommodate that many. If anything, Russia might be moving the remaining contract soldiers from Belarus, swapping them with the newly mobilised ones, which is bound to result in some logistical headaches. Russia continues to pull people from the far East, from European borders, etc. to man the units that suffered severe losses at the front, and moving however many are still in Belarus makes the most sense to me.
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Sep 29, 2022 21:46
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PerilPastry posted:Hard to read this as anything other than Putin being extremely sensitive to signs of domestic pressure, right? I don't read the response as Putin being weak to domestic pressure. I think the whole thing was setup from the start to give Putin plausible deniability and this follow up speech is exactly as planned to assuage fears. You don't get over-zealous recruitment officers on the ground trying to round up people with health problems if they don't have an incentive structure in place to do so. You don't get lawmakers trying to downplay the scope of the mobilization before official announcement if the higher-ups weren't aware there would be backlash. I'm reading this as mobilization going exactly as planned for Russia's manpower goals. To me the difference would be if there was an actual walk back on the recruitment process and letting people go back home after Putin's speech, but I'm not expecting that at all.
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Sep 29, 2022 21:47
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Paladinus posted:The implication is that it will either be the mobilised themselves, or the more experiences soldiers from other places far from the front line that the mobilised are supposed to replace. Again, I very much doubt that 120k is a real number. Even with some time to prepare, Belarus would hardly be able to accommodate that many. If anything, Russia might be moving the remaining contract soldiers from Belarus, swapping them with the newly mobilised ones, which is bound to result in some logistical headaches. Russia continues to pull people from the far East, from European borders, etc. to man the units that suffered severe losses at the front, and moving however many are still in Belarus makes the most sense to me. Mobilising all these untrained recruits as a last resort to avoid losing captured territory then blowing half of them in an extremely telegraphed attack from the north is so insane that I find it very difficult to believe. I think Russia is just loving with Ukraine, trying to get them to withdraw forces from the front to defend against something that'll never happen.
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Sep 29, 2022 21:51
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MassiveSky posted:I'm saying that although it is probably the goon consensus to spend a gorillion dollars in the middle of a recession to vet every one of the new arrivals, it would wouldn't make any sense in a realpolitical fashion. Why would you be vetting them? Who proposed that?! The original complaint for this conversation was that the allegation that Russian refugees would harass Ukrainian refugees, to which end I want to hear from you what magical super power do Russian refugees have that makes them immune to regular police and courts? spankmeister posted:https://twitter.com/waragainstputin/status/1575495378556059654 This is a really bad post, and I would’ve much preferred seeing a direct link to WarGonzo there.
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Sep 29, 2022 21:52
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