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mobby_6kl posted:I probably quoted the wrong tweet. I meant the Antonivsky bridge which let russians on the other side of Dnipro. Obviously flooding out a ton of people probably isn't a good idea. Not seeing a single mention of Antonivskyi Bridge in the last couple of pages, you may be conflating threads.
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Oct 6, 2022 21:37
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DJ_Mindboggler posted:Isn't Azoz like, the actual Ukrainian Nazis? Like, the one unit where the Russian slanders against the Ukrainian army/state are kinda true? Wouldn't allying with them be a full admission that this is just naked imperialism? (besides all of Putin's public statements, that is). The only PR advantage I could see would be potentially demoralizing Ukrainian troops, but "we're now explicitly working with the Nazis to conquer Ukraine" doesn't sound like a PR win to me. Yes they are, but the manner in which Nazi is defined and used in official Russian discourse is not the same as in the West. In the West its of course the historical definition of far right fascism based on concepts of racial struggle and extreme nationalism, etc etc. In official Russian discourse it is not the same, and is instead synonymous for 'Anti-Russian' or 'Russophobic'. Alexsandr Dugin, Margarita Simonyan and many others have explicitly stated this is what they mean by Nazism. Azov setting aside its anti-Russian sentiment to ally with Russia against their REAL ENEMIES (ie: evil homonazi globalist West, with added antisemitic overtones) would in fact be achieving the stated goal of denazification by the Russian definition, by making some of the most ardent Russophobes see the error of their ways and return to their Russian roots/brothers/masters.
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Oct 6, 2022 22:04
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DJ_Mindboggler posted:Yeah, I know the Russians are the actual fascists in this equation. I'm not saying that they have any ideological problem with Azov at the top, I'm saying that I couldn't see the PR advantage in signal boosting the potential use of those troops. Of course, it's a moot point since the only source are the Azov POWs themselves. Using them in actual combat roles would be awkward but it would be useful to get them on tape disavowing the Ukrainian government and pledging to fight for Russia. It's a longshot but it doesn't cost to ask. If you told me North Vietnam sometimes asked American prisoners if they felt like defecting I wouldn't be surprised. Why not ask. It doesn't really matter. There could be many reasons to tell prisoners a lot of absurd things just to see their reactions and we don't know what the intention was. And the guy could just be lying.
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Oct 6, 2022 22:08
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The guy going down in history books as a hero of Ukraine probably doesn't have to make up lies to make himself seem important and useful to Russia
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Oct 6, 2022 22:22
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It also could've been just a torture/interrogation technique "all of your friends have already switched sides" at the same time, as I said above, ideology really doesn't matter for them.
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Oct 6, 2022 22:34
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:That seems to be the strategy yeah. I think for most people the biggest surprise was not that Ukraine put up the fight that it did, but rather that Russia’s Air Force is probably a peer with like, Argentina’s, and that the vast majority of the army’s equipment is rotted out junk. I mean I don’t think most people expected they really had 10,000 tanks in good order, but most people - or at least I - figured they would not still have literally "made in the USSR" tires in use on their frontline trucks used for the first wave of their invasion. If Russia had an Air Force and if their army had bothered to make sure they had checked their tires since 1986 it could well have gone very differently. The Russian military has been inept beyond most people’s expectations; the comical rot of the Russian navy has been well known for years, but it looks like the Air Force was just as bad, and the army only barely passable.
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Oct 6, 2022 22:42
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MikeC posted:Pretty spot on. There is a lot of revisionism that went on with a lot of people who want to say they "knew" the Russians wouldn't win but it was looking pretty dicey that first week. Even the Ukrainians were panicking handing out AKs to any civilians who wanted to fight in the anticipation that the Russians would be at the gates of Kyiv in a matter of days. the irony is that this underestimation of Ukraine's capacity was basically the best case scenario from, like, a defense intelligence perspective: they both did not make any fatal under-estimations of their enemy and ultimately the preparations and efforts worked better than anyone could have hoped for: not even 8 months later between a quarter and a half of the russian military has been destroyed or damaged/wounded and Ukraine is in the strongest position it has been in wrt both Russia and Europe. Meanwhile Russian stockpiles are so depleted that they're struggling to equip mobiks with the basics. It's a rare success for almost everyone involved. I say this in no way whatsoever to take away from Ukrainians, who imo deserve 99% of the credit, but it is the biggest success the american intelligence community has had in quite a while. To shift into speculation: I suspect there's some hurt feelings from people who now have their names tied to some pretty stupid opinions back in november-february, but also idk how anyone looked at Ukraine and thought 'they aren't going to fight like hell.' My sense is a lot of people were weighing in professionally on subjects that they had zero recent knowledge about and conversely, the people who did know what was up are getting serious accolades. It's got to also hurt for some factions being tied to Trump's clandestine actions in Afghanistan, which were egregiously bloody and an ethical and legal quagmire, and the subsequent collapse of Afghanistan's government to seeing the weird guys who specialize in Eastern Europe suddenly getting huge success and the full firehose of funding and acclaim and professional advancement. Hell, journalists are even saying occasionally good things about the intelligence community, truly hell has frozen over. FishBulbia posted:It also could've been just a torture/interrogation technique "all of your friends have already switched sides" There's really nothing to lose in making such an offer since flipping even a couple of them would be incredibly useful. Hell even one of them would be a windfall. Imagine one of the 'heroes of azovstahl' suddenly becoming a kremlin boosted Zelenskiy critic, that's, with no hyperbole, an fsb wet dream. Also no one expected them to get released back into circulation really ever, so why not go for broke. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 23:03 on Oct 6, 2022 |
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Oct 6, 2022 22:51
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Saladman posted:I think for most people the biggest surprise was not that Ukraine put up the fight that it did, but rather that Russia’s Air Force is probably a peer with like, Argentina’s, and that the vast majority of the army’s equipment is rotted out junk. I mean I don’t think most people expected they really had 10,000 tanks in good order, but most people - or at least I - figured they would not still have literally "made in the USSR" tires in use on their frontline trucks used for the first wave of their invasion. Yeah basically this. They failed to do combined arms against an enemy with a fraction of the air assets of them. All of the US calculations were centered around the idea that they would at least be able to replicate the type of coordination the US had 30 years ago.
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Oct 6, 2022 22:52
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I forget where I heard it, but the quote that I keep coming back to is that the Russian military is never as strong or as weak as you think it's going to be.
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Oct 6, 2022 23:46
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KitConstantine posted:Update from the Swedish team investigating the leaks - source is Omni.se, would love to hear what folks in Europe think of them. Omni is just a news aggregator, owned by Schibsted a large Nordic media concern. Omni just does minimal edits on the works of others and package them for online news. TT, TT Nyhetsbyrån that's quoted in the article is a news agency like a Swedish Reuters or AP that all Swedish newspapers rely on. TT is generally seen as competent and reliable (Schibsted is a large shareholder in TT as well).
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Oct 7, 2022 00:12
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I was personally pretty surprised with how badly Russias performance in Ukraine has been because I was under the impression that their military underwent a lot of restructuring and rebuilding after the Chechen wars and the Georgian war. They won in Georgia but if I remember correctly they had a much harder time than they should have especially against a much less capable foe. And it looked like we have seen hints of a much more capable Russian military in the pre 2022 Ukraine conflict and in Syria. I remember watching videos of Russian units conducting exercises and they seemed pretty well equipped and trained and thinking they seemed like a pretty formidable force. But obviously that's part of the reason for those propaganda videos, to make your forces look scary and unbeatable.
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Oct 7, 2022 00:35
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Charliegrs posted:I was personally pretty surprised with how badly Russias performance in Ukraine has been because I was under the impression that their military underwent a lot of restructuring and rebuilding after the Chechen wars and the Georgian war. They won in Georgia but if I remember correctly they had a much harder time than they should have especially against a much less capable foe. And it looked like we have seen hints of a much more capable Russian military in the pre 2022 Ukraine conflict and in Syria. I remember watching videos of Russian units conducting exercises and they seemed pretty well equipped and trained and thinking they seemed like a pretty formidable force. But obviously that's part of the reason for those propaganda videos, to make your forces look scary and unbeatable. They almost certainly did have some forces up to that standard of scary elite competence, they've just been mostly meatgrindered by now. Like we can make fun of how dumb and crazy the Hostomel paradrops were but they almost worked--you don't make it as far as they did unless you're pretty drat good at what you're doing. It's just that behind that thin veneer there's nothing but institutional rot, which resulted in the competent units getting gutted since they were committed under the assumption that there was an actual army backing them up.
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Oct 7, 2022 01:38
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I found this github page that updates daily using the oryx numbers: https://github.com/leedrake5/Russia-Ukraine What is amazing is just how fast those loses are increasing the last month. They're almost at the level of the disastrous initial invasion.
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Oct 7, 2022 01:46
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saratoga posted:I found this github page that updates daily using the oryx numbers: And a quarter-to-a-third of those Russian losses are probably captures, which further exacerbates the losses by adding armor to Ukraine's army.
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Oct 7, 2022 01:58
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Charliegrs posted:I was personally pretty surprised with how badly Russias performance in Ukraine has been because I was under the impression that their military underwent a lot of restructuring and rebuilding after the Chechen wars and the Georgian war. They won in Georgia but if I remember correctly they had a much harder time than they should have especially against a much less capable foe. And it looked like we have seen hints of a much more capable Russian military in the pre 2022 Ukraine conflict and in Syria. I remember watching videos of Russian units conducting exercises and they seemed pretty well equipped and trained and thinking they seemed like a pretty formidable force. But obviously that's part of the reason for those propaganda videos, to make your forces look scary and unbeatable. You gotta remember that Ukraine in the initial invasion in 2014 was actually one of the worst armies in the world. It's easy to look badass when you're fighting an army that barely exists. They won in Georgia relatively easy due to Georgia's army also being very weak and completely taken by surprise. There was suppose to be restructuring and rebuilding but it was cancelled for costing the wrong people money.
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Oct 7, 2022 02:22
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The Ukrainian commander in chief of the military has a twitter now - I've seen it confirmed by accounts I trust. Weird times man https://twitter.com/CinC_AFU/status/1578084189726965761?t=j1z4cgRiHfl-isOsiAXlmw&s=19 Also MAPS https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1578176013237858306?t=EA1IwhMaXQneP7IJMAIcXA&s=19 https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1578176036839206914?t=mGbkcGNmLUiOZvqlbigvCA&s=19 https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1578177903484813314?t=toVtuf27wt3_y1hHXfBbqA&s=19 https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1578178087136595968?t=BUBzxOaYEG_yI3DsJJL-qQ&s=19 Also Putin on the move (maybe) https://twitter.com/MeNMyRC1/status/1578151237903523840?t=eCtrQme2FNBxssTlsrnSpQ&s=19
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Oct 7, 2022 02:35
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the holy poopacy posted:They almost certainly did have some forces up to that standard of scary elite competence, they've just been mostly meatgrindered by now. Like we can make fun of how dumb and crazy the Hostomel paradrops were but they almost worked--you don't make it as far as they did unless you're pretty drat good at what you're doing. It's just that behind that thin veneer there's nothing but institutional rot, which resulted in the competent units getting gutted since they were committed under the assumption that there was an actual army backing them up. Those paradrops did not almost work. The only thing that worked for the VDV, and not even that well was the first insertion. From that point on the airborne reinforcement of the original force, which was a necessary component for success for the VDV was unable to reach the airport—hundreds died when one of the planes carrying them got shot down. Then, as a result of Russia’s inability to gain air superiority, let alone the type of air supremacy the United States would secure during an operation like this, the VDV had almost no fixed wing or helicopter air support. Finally, the overland force whose task it was to link with them failed to get anywhere near Kyiv on the fist day. It wasn’t even close to “almost being successful.”
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Oct 7, 2022 02:45
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the holy poopacy posted:They almost certainly did have some forces up to that standard of scary elite competence, they've just been mostly meatgrindered by now. Like we can make fun of how dumb and crazy the Hostomel paradrops were but they almost worked--you don't make it as far as they did unless you're pretty drat good at what you're doing. It's just that behind that thin veneer there's nothing but institutional rot, which resulted in the competent units getting gutted since they were committed under the assumption that there was an actual army backing them up. Speaking of the Hostomel airport raid. I know we've learned a lot about over the last few months but I can't wait until we learn the whole story because no doubt there's elements to it that the public doesn't know yet. It's really such a wild raid if you think about it. Tons of helicopters flying low and fast right into the enemy capital to drop special forces into an airport to seize it And not a lightly armed enemy I should add. The books that will come out of this war will be quite amazing and the war itself will be studied by other militaries for years to come.
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Oct 7, 2022 02:46
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Gort posted:Why not have a four-man autoloading tank, giving the now-freed-up loader a different job? The loader serves several useful purposes:
Personally, I think I'd rather have an auto-loader and even a 2-person crew at this point *if* they could get the maintenance required down. Which they might - the new generation of auto-cannon turrets are much, much lighter than in the past (it turns out titanium is great to build with if you're a rich country), modern suspension systems are both more effectively (smoother) and last longer than older designs, etc. Feliday Melody posted:I thought the army wanted congress to stop embezzling funds into tank manufacturers because they already had too many unused tanks with zero prospects of future massed armour fights over flat terrain. The Army wanted Congress to stop making them buy Abrams. They preferred to invest those funds in other, more modern systems. Interestingly, the DOD itself has been fairly responsible from a fiscal standpoint. They've gone several years without asking for more money, and are very candid that they recognize that large budgets in times of relative peace are politically difficult. They don't want to be seen as always crying wolf, so to speak. They do, however, want to invest in modernization, even at the cost of a smaller military in the short term. Tuna-Fish posted:A quick google search says every 850 miles driven. Depending on what your unit is doing, that can be anything between once a month or every second day. But that's just one item in a very long maintenance schedule. There are some tankers here that can tell you more, but as I understand it, maintaining your tank is one of your primary duties as a tanker, and it takes a lot of time every day. For Abrams IIRC the rule of thumb is something like 8 man-hours of maintenance per one hour of operation, so a crew of 4 spends 2 hours fixing the tank for every hour they are actively using it. I don't know that I ever knew the number (maybe I should have?), but if you weren't doing anything else, you were doing maintenance. We PMCS'd (a basic check of everything) our tanks daily in garrison and in the field, other than (some) weekends in garrison. Tanks are both remarkably robust and remarkably brittle. They require a ton of maintenance to be at 100%, but if well-maintained, they can take an enormous amount of punishment and still fight. Track blown off by a mine and artillery just damaged the dog house (gunner's main sight)? You're still a dangerous motherfucker who can reach out and ruin anyone's day within 1200m using the auxiliary sight. Or you can use the commander's sight and still engage targets several km away. Oh, and that mine? It didn't even wound anyone in the crew. We had tanks in Iraq in 2003 that hit mines multiple days in a row. The crews just re-attached the track after maybe changing out one track segment, maybe swapped in a new roadwheel, and re-attached the armor skirt. It was time intensive and a little nerve-wracking, but the crew and tank were basically fine. It's kind of incredible when you think about it, and makes me pity the poor bastards driving T-72s over mines and getting blown to kingdom come. the holy poopacy posted:They almost certainly did have some forces up to that standard of scary elite competence, they've just been mostly meatgrindered by now. Like we can make fun of how dumb and crazy the Hostomel paradrops were but they almost worked--you don't make it as far as they did unless you're pretty drat good at what you're doing. It's just that behind that thin veneer there's nothing but institutional rot, which resulted in the competent units getting gutted since they were committed under the assumption that there was an actual army backing them up. I disagree. The helmet cam footage of the VDV seizing Hostomel showed basic tactical competence--good dispersion (mostly), equipment seemed to be maintained, etc.--but the operational plan was a disaster from the time they crossed the LD, and their tactics weren't anything to write home about. They stayed in place and died to artillery fire; they had no air-ground coordination; they had no medevac plan beyond on-site trauma care. That was not an "elite" unit taking an airfield. That was a regular infantry unit with no combined arms landed in a killzone. Young Freud posted:And a quarter-to-a-third of those Russian losses are probably captures, which further exacerbates the losses by adding armor to Ukraine's army. I saw a quotation recently from a Ukrainian infantry battalion commander that said he had kind of become a mechanized battalion; they had more vehicles than they knew what to do with.
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Oct 7, 2022 02:48
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ZombieLenin posted:Those paradrops did not almost work. The only thing that worked for the VDV, and not even that well was the first insertion. It would have been successful as long as nobody shot back. (which was the russian assumption going into things)
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Oct 7, 2022 02:52
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ZombieLenin posted:Those paradrops did not almost work. The only thing that worked for the VDV, and not even that well was the first insertion. Hey now, it was almost successful at effectively destroying the VDV as a meaningful force.
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Oct 7, 2022 03:08
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Warbadger posted:Hey now, it was almost successful at effectively destroying the VDV as a meaningful force. Its been really amazing seeing the transition from the early invasion days where very serious people were opining that if NATO had fought the Soviets they would have been in control of Ramstein afb in the first week to our current state of affairs.
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Oct 7, 2022 03:14
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Kchama posted:You gotta remember that Ukraine in the initial invasion in 2014 was actually one of the worst armies in the world. It's easy to look badass when you're fighting an army that barely exists. They won in Georgia relatively easy due to Georgia's army also being very weak and completely taken by surprise. Also Ukraine is ten times the size of Georgia and has ten times as many people. Maybe it was different for Europeans but I think a lot of people were underestimating the size of Ukraine before the invasion.
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Oct 7, 2022 03:15
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ZombieLenin posted:Those paradrops did not almost work. The only thing that worked for the VDV, and not even that well was the first insertion. That's kind of my point--the initial insertion was good enough to take and hold the airport in hostile territory for a couple days with no outside support, which is no small feat. If they weren't vastly better than the rest of the Russian military they would have been dead in the air. But leadership committed them to a plan that was dependent on the rest of the Russian military being competent enough to follow in support, which just didn't happen. The tip of the spear was in fine shape but the shaft was pawned for booze several years ago.
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Oct 7, 2022 03:28
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ZombieLenin posted:Those paradrops did not almost work. The only thing that worked for the VDV, and not even that well was the first insertion. Whoa was that confirmed they lost the plane loaded with paratroopers? I don’t doubt it just remember hearing that but it was early war chatter when lots of rumors were going around. I’m sure the comparison has been made but Market Garden is the closest parallel I can think of, except that didn’t drastically wreck the Allied war effort. This more like if UK/US had gone all in on a 1943 D-Day unprepared.
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Oct 7, 2022 03:53
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Hyrax Attack! posted:Whoa was that confirmed they lost the plane loaded with paratroopers? I don’t doubt it just remember hearing that but it was early war chatter when lots of rumors were going around. I don't think the il-76 shootdown was ever confirmed no
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Oct 7, 2022 03:57
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the holy poopacy posted:That's kind of my point--the initial insertion was good enough to take and hold the airport in hostile territory for a couple days with no outside support, which is no small feat. If they weren't vastly better than the rest of the Russian military they would have been dead in the air. But leadership committed them to a plan that was dependent on the rest of the Russian military being competent enough to follow in support, which just didn't happen. The tip of the spear was in fine shape but the shaft was pawned for booze several years ago. Not really. The only Ukrainian unit nearby was like a battalion of national guard police or something. They attacked and kept the VDV stuck in the airport until a Ukrainian regular army artillery battalion got within range. After that they just shelled the poo poo out of them for two days. It wasn't like the VDV held off hordes of Ukrainians for two days straight. They landed, stayed on the tarmac, got shelled, ran into the nearby woods, got shelled and counterattacked, and died and surrendered. I think they performed as competent light infantry, but they didn't particularly stand out compared to any generic US light infantry formation. It was a small feat, at best. Contrast this with e.g the Asovstal defenders, who held Mariupol for multiple months, unsupplied except for the occasional helicopter operation, against at least 6 Russian BTGs, multiple supporting rocket and artillery battalions, and Russian bombers. That demonstrated tactical skill.
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Oct 7, 2022 04:14
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Ynglaur posted:
Do any other Russian units in this war have any feats though? We're comparing their skill to other Russians, not Ukrainians.
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Oct 7, 2022 04:16
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Charlz Guybon posted:Do any other Russian units in this war have any feats though? We're comparing their skill to other Russians, not Ukrainians. Oh, I see. Yes, in comparison to other Russian units, the VDV have tended to do better. I think the best performing units seem to be the various Naval Infantry brigades. They seem to be put in some of the more difficult fights (Mariupol, Sverodonetsk, Kherson) and seem to hold out longer. That's a general impression, though, and not a proper analysis. They may simply be larger than Motorized Rifle Regiments.
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Oct 7, 2022 04:19
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FishBulbia posted:I don't think the il-76 shootdown was ever confirmed no I believe a British MOD member mentioned it during a presentation (to / in Australia I think), I'm trying to find a reference.
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Oct 7, 2022 04:29
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Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian.   
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Oct 7, 2022 05:07
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FishBulbia posted:I don't think the il-76 shootdown was ever confirmed no beyond not confirmed, there is precisely zero evidence that it actually happened beyond Rubio tweeting about it, afaik. Ironically the report (or something else) had the intended effect of getting Russia to decide not to reinforce the gostomel guys by air. Ynglaur posted:Not really. The only Ukrainian unit nearby was like a battalion of national guard police or something. They attacked and kept the VDV stuck in the airport until a Ukrainian regular army artillery battalion got within range. After that they just shelled the poo poo out of them for two days. It wasn't like the VDV held off hordes of Ukrainians for two days straight. They landed, stayed on the tarmac, got shelled, ran into the nearby woods, got shelled and counterattacked, and died and surrendered. There were absolutely very good Ukrainian forces involved in that fight and Gostomel airport was such a telegraphed and obvious location to attack and use as a springboard to a quick seizure of Kyiv that Ukraine would've been beyond stupid to only leave a handful of national guard guys there. Offhand it involved alpha group, several branches of rapid reaction forces, NATO trained Ukrainian Army SF, and a bunch of other units+a lot of aviation). There were national guard and TDF and even some volunteers involved in the fight apparently, but Kiev as a general thing messages their successes around the littlest guy involved taking on the biggest enemy. And while that's not wrong (and in fact is genuinely incredible what was pulled off due to the daring of some pretty untrained guys) it's not the full picture. https://www.aberfoylesecurity.com/?p=4812 Also man Ukraine just shattered the mythical reputation of the VDV in the course of a week. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 05:45 on Oct 7, 2022 |
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Oct 7, 2022 05:31
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Ynglaur posted:I don't know that I ever knew the number (maybe I should have?), but if you weren't doing anything else, you were doing maintenance. We PMCS'd (a basic check of everything) our tanks daily in garrison and in the field, other than (some) weekends in garrison. If I'm not doing anything, then I'm sleeping, haha. 20 min to spare? Wash up and sleep in a corner. Maybe whatever happens after that doesn't require my help, and it turns into 60 minutes. The nurse has it the worst because there's only one of him in total. We stand in the best we can to give him pockets of sleep. But he's not as interchangeable as the regular medics.
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Oct 7, 2022 05:37
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Herstory Begins Now posted:beyond not confirmed, there is precisely zero evidence that it actually happened beyond Rubio tweeting about it, afaik. Ironically the report (or something else) had the intended effect of getting Russia to decide not to reinforce the gostomel guys by air. US intelligence officials seem to confirm it: quote:As Russia launched its invasion, the U.S. gave Ukrainian forces detailed intelligence about exactly when and where Russian missiles and bombs were intended to strike, prompting Ukraine to move air defenses and aircraft out of harm’s way, current and former U.S. officials told NBC News. It's odd that references to it have completely disappeared. Even though the locations of the two supposed shoot-downs have been reported (Vasylkiv and Bila Tserkva), no one has ever visited the sites to confirm or deny any wreckage. If they happened, US Intelligence clearly doesn't want anyone asking any complicated questions about it. Their exact role may be something they don't want getting out.
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Oct 7, 2022 05:42
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Deteriorata posted:US intelligence officials seem to confirm it: yeah they still say they did, or more precisely have just stopped mentioning it, but until there's literally a single scrap of wreckage or a single post on vk from a family member about losing a loved one in a plane crash full of hundreds of VDV I'm standing by 'Ukraine launched an AA missile at a decoy' Russia used a fuckton of decoys in the opening stages of the war and Ukraine shot missiles at a ton of them Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 05:50 on Oct 7, 2022 |
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Oct 7, 2022 05:47
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Deteriorata posted:US intelligence officials seem to confirm it: Feel like there would be some wreckage or video of a plane that size
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Oct 7, 2022 05:48
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FishBulbia posted:Feel like there would be some wreckage or video of a plane that size I definitely remember some tweets very early on with wreckage that size that claimed it was the shot down VDV flight but maybe that was later debunked?
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Oct 7, 2022 06:26
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If there was any visual evidence of it I would expect it would show up in Oryx's list, but the only Russian transport plane on that list is an An-26 that crashed in Russia: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/02/25/russian-warplane-crashes-near-ukraine-border-killing-crew-a76583 https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
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Oct 7, 2022 06:40
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A Ukrainian AN-26 went down near Kiev and there was also a Russian AN-26 that went down but that was Voronizh region in the far north-east
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Oct 7, 2022 06:43
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There were photos circulating a while back claiming to be the shot down Il-76, but I think they were shown to be a large transport helicopter. It's one of the more interesting mysteries of the war that hopefully gets resolved afterwards. It's going to be something like a diver repairing a utility cable running under the Dnieper finds the wreckage a decade from now.
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Oct 7, 2022 06:50
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