READ OP! War in Ukraine: a distressed blender making too many margaritas at once

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Flavahbeast: Jul 21, 2001

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Edit:

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1577911123575046145

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1578254761505476609

# ? Oct 7, 2022 07:28

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? Jun 4, 2024 09:57

golden bubble: Jun 3, 2011; yospos

https://twitter.com/AetiusRF/status/1578172176758603777
https://twitter.com/Threepants_/status/1578256441080975367

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

# ? Oct 7, 2022 07:29

Herstory Begins Now: Aug 5, 2003; SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

I am curious what Ukraine is getting Putin for his birthday.

# ? Oct 7, 2022 07:36

Dick Ripple: May 19, 2021

golden bubble posted:

https://twitter.com/AetiusRF/status/1578172176758603777
https://twitter.com/Threepants_/status/1578256441080975367

Think he learned his lesson?

# ? Oct 7, 2022 07:50

KYOON GRIFFEY JR: Apr 12, 2010; Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22

golden bubble posted:

https://twitter.com/AetiusRF/status/1578172176758603777
https://twitter.com/Threepants_/status/1578256441080975367

What�s his username?

# ? Oct 7, 2022 07:53

gay picnic defence: Oct 5, 2009; I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

FishBulbia posted:

I don't think the il-76 shootdown was ever confirmed no

There was some video of a crash site purportedly in Belarus that showed some wreckage that looked a bit like a transport aircraft.

# ? Oct 7, 2022 08:24

Herstory Begins Now: Aug 5, 2003; SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

gay picnic defence posted:

There was some video of a crash site purportedly in Belarus that showed some wreckage that looked a bit like a transport aircraft.

This?
https://postlmg.cc/VSMWgz9d

that was the an-26 in voronizh

# ? Oct 7, 2022 08:27

gay picnic defence: Oct 5, 2009; I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

Herstory Begins Now posted:

This?
https://postlmg.cc/VSMWgz9d

that was the an-26 in voronizh

Nah, the footage was taken a bit later in the spring than that, there was a fair bit of greenery. The wreckage was pretty burnt out too.

# ? Oct 7, 2022 08:31

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

https://twitter.com/elinaribakova/status/1577978003258331136

https://twitter.com/elinaribakova/status/1577979438725218305

https://twitter.com/elinaribakova/status/1577981391727460353

https://twitter.com/elinaribakova/status/1577982890545225728

# ? Oct 7, 2022 09:00

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Herstory Begins Now posted:

I am curious what Ukraine is getting Putin for his birthday.

I hear the Hague is pretty this time of the year, and would be willing to participate in purchasing a flight ticket.

Of course travelling alone is boring, so better get tickets for his friends like Shoigu, Lavrov, Medvedev and Kadyrov as well.

Nenonen fucked around with this message at 09:15 on Oct 7, 2022

# ? Oct 7, 2022 09:13

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

Charliegrs posted:

Speaking of the Hostomel airport raid. I know we've learned a lot about over the last few months but I can't wait until we learn the whole story because no doubt there's elements to it that the public doesn't know yet. It's really such a wild raid if you think about it. Tons of helicopters flying low and fast right into the enemy capital to drop special forces into an airport to seize it And not a lightly armed enemy I should add. The books that will come out of this war will be quite amazing and the war itself will be studied by other militaries for years to come.

VDV are not special forces, just one of the better trained Russian light infantry flavours.

gay picnic defence posted:

Nah, the footage was taken a bit later in the spring than that, there was a fair bit of greenery. The wreckage was pretty burnt out too.

https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1541103413588549637

# ? Oct 7, 2022 09:17

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

A few of the posts about Hostomel are getting minor details off in ways, so I'll quote a chapter from the recent WaPo piece on the battle for Kyiv as a refresher.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/interactive/2022/kyiv-battle-ukraine-survival/

quote:

The Russian helicopters swept low over the Dnieper, their rotor blades slicing the moist winter air in the fold of the river valley. They flew south out of Belarus to a place where the river widens into a placid expanse that locals call a sea, then banked to the suburb of Hostomel, 22 miles northwest of Ukraine�s government quarter.

The Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopters in the group took the lead, opening fire on their target below � Antonov Airport, a cargo and testing facility with a major runway. Putin�s chosen bridgehead for his assault on Kyiv was the very airport CIA Director William J. Burns, during a Jan. 12 visit to Kyiv, had warned the Ukrainians that Russia would try to seize.

Vitaly Rudenko, a commander at the national guard base just outside the airport gates, looked up in disbelief. �Until the final moment, I didn�t believe it. Maybe I didn�t want to believe it,� he said.

In Kyiv, Ukraine�s military leadership had descended into a fortified shelter. Defense communications aides hurried down the hallway in pursuit of Lt. Gen. Yevhen Moisiuk, the No. 2 officer in Ukraine�s armed forces, to ask him what message they should deliver to Ukrainians as Russian forces entered their towns.

Moisiuk stopped walking and spun around.

�Tell everyone: �Kill the occupiers,� � Moisiuk said. �Kill the occupiers!�

There were early setbacks at Hostomel. Some of the air defenses the Ukrainians had set up around the airport were hit by strikes before Russia sent in its troop carriers. An employee of the airfield whose son had been recruited by Russian intelligence had revealed their positions, Syrsky said.

The most combat-ready personnel on the base had deployed weeks earlier to Ukraine�s eastern Luhansk region, along with their equipment, leaving the airport and base with about 300 soldiers, including draftees who were serving out Ukraine�s mandatory military service. Many had never seen combat.

The helicopters were circling like a kettle of vultures over the airport, whirring against an overcast sky already black with smoke from missile strikes.

�They opened fire at anything within reach, all the buildings, at any people they saw moving around, regardless of whether they were military or civilians � they didn�t care. They were just firing wherever they detected movement,� said a national guard platoon commander whose radio call sign is Malysh, or Kid. Like others, he withheld his name for security reasons.

As the first helicopters reached the airstrip, Serhiy Falatyuk, a 25-year-old national guardsman, propped an Igla surface-to-air system dating to the Soviet Union on his shoulder, peered through the sight and fired a missile.

It missed.

Falatyuk reloaded, turned his sights on another Russian helicopter and fired again, according to Rudenko. The missile struck the helicopter. Falatyuk screamed in delight.

The small victory electrified the Ukrainian forces, boosting the spirits of Malysh�s draftees. �It was actually possible to shoot [them] down, to do it,� everyone thought, according to Malysh. �The fighters� morale increased. They grew more persistent. � Regardless of whether they were conscripts, they were fighters.�

Several Ukrainian air defenses had been moved the day before the invasion, so they remained undisclosed to the Russians and spearheaded a counterattack within minutes, Syrsky said. The Russian pilots struggled under the heavy fire of surface-to-air missiles and antiaircraft artillery, particularly after a direct hit downed one of their leaders.

�They were shooting from all sides. In the first attack, we immediately lost the leader of our group,� Capt. Ivan Boldyrev, one of the Ka-52 pilots, told the Russian state-run defense TV channel Zvezda. Boldyrev had to make an emergency landing after his helicopter suffered damage.

Dozens of civilian employees across the airport ran for the bomb shelter under the cafeteria. Others hid wherever they could, including in the sewers.

�People ... looked at one another, understood what was happening, but didn�t understand why,� said Vyacheslav Denysenko, one of the Antonov employees.

Outside, Russian forces streamed out of transport helicopters and fanned out to an adjoining small forest and a complex of buildings at the airport.

The Ukrainian soldiers came under constant fire. Outgunned and outnumbered on the grounds of the airport, and facing elite Russian units with far more experience, national guard fighters began to run low on ammunition. �I gave the command � to retreat,� Rudenko said.

The exit was chaotic. Rudenko ordered the air defense units and scouts to leave by hopping the fence. Guardsmen close enough to vehicles jumped in and sped away. Others ran on foot. Some of the guardsmen were taken prisoner by the Russians.

After the retreat, however, Ukrainian forces opened fire on the airport with heavy artillery they had deployed outside the airport perimeter, blasting the runway to prevent future landings. In addition, late on Feb. 24, two Ukrainian Su-24 bombers swept over the airport and bombed the runway, causing more damage.

Still, the Russians had their bridgehead.

The Ukrainian equivalent of the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, called Col. Oleksandr Vdovychenko, commander of the 72nd Mechanized Brigade, the only such unit in the Kyiv region and the main force defending the capital.

�We have to retake Hostomel,� Zaluzhny said.

�Mr. Commander in Chief, with all due respect, I don�t have enough forces to take Hostomel,� Vdovychenko recalled responding.

�We should try,� Zaluzhny replied.

Along with elite Ukrainian units, the 72nd Brigade�s troops contested the airport for days, firing artillery barrages and blocking Russian forces struggling to move out of the facility. Moscow had been planning to bring in heavy equipment and more troops on Il-76 cargo aircraft to aid the advance, according to Ukrainian officials, but couldn�t immediately do so.

�That they were able to storm the airfield and take control of it in the course of a few hours, on the one hand, played a negative role [for us],� Syrsky said. �But on the other hand, the artillery fire aimed at the runway and disembarkation sites delayed the landing significantly and frustrated the plan to capture Kyiv, because we know now that in principle the enemy allocated a maximum of up to three days for the capture of Kyiv.�

Later, however, the Russians were able to bring in reinforcements to Hostomel via aircraft, Vdovychenko said.

Over subsequent days, Russian forces already on the ground spread out � into the neighboring suburbs of Bucha and Irpin and the town of Hostomel itself � as they sought to find a route into Kyiv. But a week after the landing, they were still fighting on the streets of Hostomel. A 40-mile-long resupply convoy heading to Hostomel from Belarus ground to a halt north of Kyiv, exposing Russia�s logistical problems.

One 31-year-old Hostomel resident, Masha Maas, had been taking cover in the bunker of a glass factory in the center of the town when she saw three Russian soldiers arriving on March 6, after Ukrainian forces had retreated.

�I said, what should we do?� she recalled. �If we close the doors from the inside, they could think someone is left in here and break it or flood it � who knows? If we leave them open, they can shoot us. Take your pick. We decided not to close the doors.�

The first Russian soldier who walked in had blond hair and dark eyes with giant pupils, she recalled. �Why are you looking at me like I�m a fascist?� Maas recalled him saying. �I�m not a fascist. It�s your Ukrainian soldiers who are fascists.�

By March 7, the Russians had occupied the bulk of Hostomel and were using the airport as a hub.

Zaluzhny, the Ukrainian military�s top officer, again spoke to the commander of the 72nd Brigade and ordered him to hold an agreed-upon line on Hostomel�s outskirts and prevent the Russians from advancing any closer to the capital.

�Not one step back,� he said.

The Ukrainians for days blocked the Russian troops from proceeding down the highway toward Kyiv. Frustrated, the Russians tried to find another way into the city. Their best hope: breaking through a forest in the village of Moshchun at the edge of the capital.

A noteworthy difference with the February reporting � back then it was implied VDV troops were scattered from the airport by the end of the first 24 hours since their landing, which this piece doesn't confirm explicitly.

# ? Oct 7, 2022 09:23

Herstory Begins Now: Aug 5, 2003; SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

yeah there were days of (false) reports that Ukraine had taken back the airfield then discussion of it pretty much quieted down once it became clear that Russia had taken and was holding it and it just stopped getting mentioned. Ukraine defended that entire area very tenaciously hence why the Russians only made it ~2-3 miles past the airport into Irpin before stalling out.

cinci zoo sniper posted:

VDV are not special forces, just one of the better trained Russian light infantry flavours.

not automatically no but there's the 45th spetsnaz brigade within the vdv (who were present at gostomel airport) so the confusion around them makes sense

Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 09:43 on Oct 7, 2022

# ? Oct 7, 2022 09:32

Average Lettuce: Oct 22, 2012

cinci zoo sniper posted:

quote:
The first Russian soldier who walked in had blond hair and dark eyes with giant pupils, she recalled. �Why are you looking at me like I�m a fascist?� Maas recalled him saying. �I�m not a fascist. It�s your Ukrainian soldiers who are fascists.�

Heavy "are we the badies?" energy.

# ? Oct 7, 2022 09:48

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

Herstory Begins Now posted:

yeah there were days of (false) reports that Ukraine had taken back the airfield then discussion of it pretty much quieted down once it became clear that Russia had taken and was holding it and it just stopped getting mentioned. Ukraine defended that entire area very tenaciously hence why the Russians only made it ~2-3 miles past the airport into Irpin before stalling out.

not automatically no but there's the 45th spetsnaz brigade within the vdv (who were present at gostomel airport) so the confusion around them makes sense

Fair comment, but I think that confusion comes primarily not from people being widely aware that the 45th was there, which is something that came out only around July, long past Hostomel�s relevance, but from pundits playing fast and loose with adjectives describing prestige or relative preparedness of VDV in general, and the 31st brigade being an especially decorated formation in particular.

# ? Oct 7, 2022 09:55

Somaen: Nov 19, 2007; by vyelkin

saratoga posted:

I found this github page that updates daily using the oryx numbers:

https://github.com/leedrake5/Russia-Ukraine

What is amazing is just how fast those loses are increasing the last month. They're almost at the level of the disastrous initial invasion.

There's a component to this in that some of this stuff was destroyed earlier in the war but ended up on land occupied by Russia, so the UAF could claim something was destroyed but there would be no documented proof

Now that they're liberating territory and taking pics of wrecked things, some stuff destroyed way earlier is getting confirmed only now

Though I don't know how much that would be, makes sense that with progressively better weapons and worse russian soldiers they're destroying stuff more easily

# ? Oct 7, 2022 09:56

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

That WaPo piece by the way, I highly recommend reading it. They have total of 6 longer stories in their recent cycle on Ukraine, and all of them are absolute bangers.

# ? Oct 7, 2022 10:07

Herstory Begins Now: Aug 5, 2003; SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

Yeah wapo is gunning for some serious journalism awards by doing a bunch of really incredible reporting.

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Fair comment, but I think that confusion comes primarily not from people being widely aware that the 45th was there, which is something that came out only around July, long past Hostomel�s relevance, but from pundits playing fast and loose with adjectives describing prestige or relative preparedness of VDV in general, and the 31st brigade being an especially decorated formation in particular.

In the first month of the war every single russian unit was spetsnaz and every single ukrainian unit was tdf and someone's uncle sasha who had maybe been in the Soviet military. It's possibly the reporting at the time was playing a bit fast and loose with the facts, to put it lightly. That said, there was also a lot of tdf running into actual tip of the spear Russian units, so the extent of that was probably less exaggerated than it's easy to assume. The latter point is backed up by what we eventually learned about just how many of Russia's best units were active on the frontlines and the mauling that tdf took in the first ~2 months of the war.

# ? Oct 7, 2022 10:10

Pretty Boy Floyd: Mar 21, 2006; If you'll gather round me children...

There were a few crazy rumors floating around, like them dropping VDV into the Black Sea. Pretty sure that one was definitely not true, though.

# ? Oct 7, 2022 10:13

gay picnic defence: Oct 5, 2009; I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

Somaen posted:

There's a component to this in that some of this stuff was destroyed earlier in the war but ended up on land occupied by Russia, so the UAF could claim something was destroyed but there would be no documented proof

Now that they're liberating territory and taking pics of wrecked things, some stuff destroyed way earlier is getting confirmed only now

Though I don't know how much that would be, makes sense that with progressively better weapons and worse russian soldiers they're destroying stuff more easily

If you have a look through the pictures on Oryx's site you can tell the really old stuff because it's really rusted out.

Some of it is definitely Ukraine overtaking repair depots full of vehicles that couldn't retreat but there's also plenty of video of Ukrainians hopping straight into a captured tank and driving it off so it's not all trash.

# ? Oct 7, 2022 10:15

Luigi's Discount Porn Bin: Jul 19, 2000; Oven Wrangler

Interesting Guardian article on power struggles at the Kremlin. A lot of it has come up in this thread already, but it's a nice synthesis as far as I can see, and I've bolded a couple things I wasn't aware of before.

quote:

�Intense dread� and infighting among Russian elites as Putin�s war falters
Key figures including Wagner Group�s Yevgeny Prigozhin are using military defeats to undermine defence chief Sergei Shoigu

Friends, rivals and enemies took their seats in the Grand Kremlin Palace as Vladimir Putin gathered the country�s elite to formalise Russia�s illegal annexation of four occupied regions in Ukraine.

The ceremony was meant to portray strength and unity, but within 24 hours had been overshadowed by Russia�s failures on the battlefield. These losses, which continued into this week on the southern and eastern fronts in Ukraine, have led to a major, unprecedented rupture within the ruling class as the Kremlin seeks scapegoats for a series of military embarrassments.

The following account is based on 15 interviews with former government and defence officials, members of the military, political observers, journalists, opposition members, and an inmate at a prison where Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin recruited soldiers to join his mercenary group in Ukraine.

Friends, rivals and enemies took their seats in the Grand Kremlin Palace as Vladimir Putin gathered the country�s elite to formalise Russia�s illegal annexation of four occupied regions in Ukraine.

The ceremony was meant to portray strength and unity, but within 24 hours had been overshadowed by Russia�s failures on the battlefield. These losses, which continued into this week on the southern and eastern fronts in Ukraine, have led to a major, unprecedented rupture within the ruling class as the Kremlin seeks scapegoats for a series of military embarrassments.

The following account is based on 15 interviews with former government and defence officials, members of the military, political observers, journalists, opposition members, and an inmate at a prison where Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin recruited soldiers to join his mercenary group in Ukraine.

The seven-month-long Russian invasion of its neighbour has plunged the Russian ruling elite into uncertainty, the sources say, and within it a growing understanding the war cannot be won.

Some ambitious officials have seen opportunity in the chaos, pitching to the Kremlin on ways to turn around a failing war and a botched mobilisation. Others are lying low, seeking to hold on to power or avoid punishment. Western intelligence agencies have reported high levels of dissatisfaction among the Russian army and in the country�s elite. Some have even suggested a coup could take place.

Two of Vladimir Putin�s most notorious lieutenants, Prigozhin and the Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, have openly declared war against the defence minister, Putin loyalist Sergei Shoigu, and his top generals following a series of disastrous defeats that have left Russia�s army in retreat.

�Putin is a very destructive personality, he will play the different factions off each other and see what the best outcome will be,� a former defence ministry official told the Guardian. �He doesn�t know how to fix relationships, so in the end, someone will fall victim. Putin just wants to see what is best for him and the war in Ukraine.�

Marat Gabidullin, a former Wagner commander who knows Prigozhin from his time at the paramilitary group, said he wasn�t �surprised to see Prigozhin stepping into the spotlight� at this moment.

�On the current wave of patriotism, he wants to position himself as a fierce defender of the motherland who created a professional military organisation. He wants to show that he can fight better than the regular army. We always had tensions with the ministry of defence, we really didn�t like each other.�

According to a former senior defence official who worked with Shoigu and Prigozhin, the rivalry between the two men is a longstanding feud that goes back to the founding of Wagner in 2014 after the annexation of Crimea. It was exacerbated, the person said, when Shoigu recently fired deputy defence minister Dmitry Bulgakov, an official who had reportedly helped Prigozhin obtain lucrative contracts supplying the army.

�Prigozhin will now be out for revenge against Shoigu,� that person said. He described Prigozhin as a person with �no morals, no conscience, and no hobbies � He is a machine in the bad sense of the word.�

Prigozhin has found an unlikely ally in Kadyrov, the volatile leader of Chechnya who has established the North Caucasus republic as a personal fiefdom in exchange for securing its loyalty to Russia. Yet in the recent conflict, he has emerged as one of the harshest critics of the Russian defence ministry, claiming his own fighters could take Kyiv within days even after the Russian army had been repulsed.

Shortly after the Russian defeat last week at Lyman, a crucial railway hub in the Donetsk region, Kadyrov unleashed a withering attack on the Russian general staff and at the central military district commander Alexander Lapin responsible for the city�s defence.

�The shame isn�t that Lapin is incompetent,� Kadyrov wrote on Telegram. �It�s that he�s being shielded from above by the leadership in the General Staff. If it was up to me, I would bust him down to a private, take away his medals and send him with a rifle to the front in order to cleanse his shame in blood.�

�Military nepotism will not lead anywhere good,� he added.

�Beautiful, Ramzan, keep it up,� Prigozhin chimed in. �These punks should be shipped to the front barefoot with machine guns.�

Putin for years has pitted his underlings against one another in order to prevent them from uniting against him. Since early in the war, rumours have circulated through Moscow about fistfights at the Kremlin involving Shoigu and other officials (none have been confirmed).

�This balancing game might work in peacetime, but right now it distracts from the war efforts,� said Marat Gelman, a former adviser to Vladimir Putin and now a critic of the Kremlin leader.

These kinds of public spats are �new, important, and unprecedented too�, said Dmitry Oreshkin, a veteran Russian political scientist. �We haven�t seen such an open and public battle amongst the elites before for Putin�s attention.�

One Chechnya watcher said that Kadyrov�s criticism of the military reflected his ambitions to be �something more than just the head of a region�. The former defence official similarly said that Kadyrov was aiming for a senior role in the government.

�He knows that war is his time to shine, he has to strike now,� the former defence official said.

�Everyone is playing the blame game, and Kadyrov is at the forefront of it,� said Farida Rustamova, a Russian journalist who has written on divisions in the Russian elite. �He sees himself as one of the leaders of the war. Like the son Putin never had. It feels like a snowball that is getting bigger and bigger with every defeat.�

The two men are not the only ones leading a pile-on against the Russian military. TV propagandists such as Margarita Simonyan and Vladimir Soloviev have openly criticised the execution of the draft, accusing the military of fomenting instability in the country by attempting to recruit Russians unfit for service.

�Our people are not stupid,� said Andrei Kartapolov, a former army general and head of the State Duma�s defence committee, while accusing the military of lying in its daily updates on the war. �They can see that they are not being told the truth.�

A Russian-installed official in Ukraine even suggested Shoigu should shoot himself because of failures in the Ukraine conflict.

The attacks on the defence ministry come at one of the most dangerous moments in the war, after Russia�s army has lost thousands of square miles of territory and has been unable to stabilise its lines in Kharkiv, Donetsk or now in the Kherson region.

�The Kremlin is looking for scapegoats. There have been three obvious failures: the start of the war, the latest military failures, and the botched mobilisation,� said Gelman, the former Putin adviser.

Shoigu and other top military officials are the obvious target. Once seen by Russia�s public as the man who modernised Russia�s army and oversaw the successful 2014 Crimea operation, Shoigu is now facing a backlash for the military�s failures. And there are clear temptations to sack him.

�There are always ways to let off pressure,� said a well-connected Moscow political observer, who asked not to be named when discussing the military. �We have a wonderful minister of defence. A fantastic chief of the general army staff. If the defeats continue � there are always possibilities [to sack them]. And everyone will support it. They�ll say [Putin�s] finally acting tough, punishing the guilty.�

The feeling may be mutual. According to the former defence official, �knowing Shoigu, I truly believe he would be happy to get sacked right now. He wants out of this mess.�

The native of Tuva had always been an unenthusiastic supporter of the 2014 war in the Donbas but was overruled by a cadre of hawkish Kremlin advisers including Nikolai Patrushev, the person said. He also was not in favour of the more recent �annexations� of occupied Ukrainian territory, he added.

But Putin knows he can trust Shoigu and sacking him would be deeply embarrassing, said that official.

�Even if Shiogu isn�t happy with what is happening, he�ll always be loyal to Putin and do his job,� the person said. �Putin knows he can fully trust him.�

That reflected a sense among a number of Russian elites that despite the challenges posed by the upstarts that the weight of Russia�s main ministries: the army, FSB, police and others would far exceed the threat posed by them.

Kadyrov didn�t have the authority to tell Putin to replace his defence minister, said a former top official. And Kadyrov was considerably more measured in his private interactions with Putin than in his public statements, the person said. Prigozhin, meanwhile, was just an �operator�.

�I cannot imagine that the FSB would allow either Prigozhin or Kadyrov to acquire any political power,� said Yevgenia Albats, a Russian investigative journalist and editor of the New Times. �It�s impossible.�

Albats, who recently left Russia after being targeted repeatedly for her reporting, said that her contacts among Russian officials estimated that at least 70% of top officials � people she referred to as the nomenklatura � were opposed to the war.

Another well-connected journalist who works on state television said that �intense dread� has taken hold of much of the political elite.

�The higher you go, the more desperation you feel. There is general understanding now that the war can�t be won.�

Albats said that for now, the opposition to the war that has taken hold among senior officials was unlikely to threaten Putin himself.

�They�re very afraid. Even people I have known for my life, known for several decades, my friends. We no longer can meet because I became so toxic.�

�For there to be a schism people need to stop being afraid,� Albats said. �Where should these guys even meet? The phones are tapped, the flats are tapped.�

Oreshkin, the political scientist, said the risks for any party to move against Putin was simply too high.

�This whole system is built around a vozdh, a leader. If you get rid of Putin you have to be able to deliver quick results, but everyone knows that is not possible right now.�

On the other extreme, Kadyrov and Prigozhin�s macho personas appear to have filtered into the Kremlin. One person who knows Sergei Kiriyenko, a presidential administration figure who had been tasked with managing politics in the occupied territories, said his decision to dress in fatigues and visit the region was probably inspired by them: �In the time of the freaks, you have to dress up as one too,� he said.

Valery Fyodorov, head of the state-run WCIOM polling centre, said that Prigozhin is still largely unknown, and until a video of him at a prison surfaced last month, he was a �man without a face�.

But Kadyrov polls well even among Russians, he said. �He says the right things � He presents himself as a foot-soldier soldier of Putin. And that�s how people view him � he doesn�t position himself like a Chechen fighter, but like a Russian one.�

And in a time when Russian military officials are seen as dithering and duplicitous, a swaggering ex-con with his own private army may be dangerous.

�Prigozhin spoke with a lot of confidence,� said Ivan, an inmate at the penal colony No 8 in the Tambov region. �We all listened when he spoke, and trust me that is not easy to shut up a good [number] of prisoners. He is one of us in the end, a former inmate. I think many who signed up did so because they trust Progzhin. They don�t trust the authorities, but they believe Prigozhin when he tells them that they will be let free.�

e: this is also a nice context for Wagner still pushing on Bakhmut, where it sounds like the defenders are on the verge of cracking today - an actual successful offensive for the Russians would be a very nice feather in Prigozhin's cap at this point in the war.

Luigi's Discount Porn Bin fucked around with this message at 10:52 on Oct 7, 2022

# ? Oct 7, 2022 10:42

CeeJee: Dec 4, 2001; Oven Wrangler

Luigi's Discount Porn Bin posted:

e: this is also a nice context for Wagner still pushing on Bakhmut, where it sounds like the defenders are on the verge of cracking today - an actual successful offensive for the Russians would be a very nice feather in Prigozhin's cap at this point in the war.

The obsession with Bakhmut seems like it's supposed to be good publicity for the Wagner brand even while being a complete waste of resources for the war as a whole. No matter how the war ends, Wagner will come out of it as a proven, reliable partner for any customer with a difficult job.

# ? Oct 7, 2022 11:08

sniper4625: Sep 26, 2009; Loyal to the hEnd

Where are you hearing Bakhmut is about to fall?

# ? Oct 7, 2022 11:10

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

CeeJee posted:

The obsession with Bakhmut seems like it's supposed to be good publicity for the Wagner brand even while being a complete waste of resources for the war as a whole. No matter how the war ends, Wagner will come out of it as a proven, reliable partner for any customer with a difficult job.

Wagner has more than enough time to be dismantled by Ukrainian troops or Russian security establishment.

Herstory Begins Now posted:

Yeah wapo is gunning for some serious journalism awards by doing a bunch of really incredible reporting.

In the first month of the war every single russian unit was spetsnaz and every single ukrainian unit was tdf and someone's uncle sasha who had maybe been in the Soviet military. It's possibly the reporting at the time was playing a bit fast and loose with the facts, to put it lightly. That said, there was also a lot of tdf running into actual tip of the spear Russian units, so the extent of that was probably less exaggerated than it's easy to assume. The latter point is backed up by what we eventually learned about just how many of Russia's best units were active on the frontlines and the mauling that tdf took in the first ~2 months of the war.

Of that, by far the most baffling to me was to read about the 1st GTA being stopped dead in its tracks under Chernihiv. In Soviet times, they were the expected tip of the spear in a European ground war against NATO.

# ? Oct 7, 2022 11:13

Herstory Begins Now: Aug 5, 2003; SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

The more we learn about the early days of the war the less I feel like I understand how Ukraine actually stopped the Russian military. Like I get the big picture stuff and all the rot that destroyed the Russians from the inside, but the human side of it of a bunch of lightly armed uncles living in trenches in whatever tree cover they could find getting shelled and fighting off repeated russian armored pushes is just an insane accomplishment. Honestly I think people buy into the pro-ukraine propaganda about Russian incompetence too much sometimes to the extent that they lose sight of just how crazy what Ukraine accomplished really is. Incompetent and rotten or not, the Russian military never stopped being incredibly capable of unleashing destruction around it. Standing up to that and willing the possibility of victory into existence is incredible.

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Of that, by far the most baffling to me was to read about the 1st GTA being stopped dead in its tracks under Chernihiv. In Soviet times, they were the expected tip of the spear in a European ground war against NATO.

Yeah that's what I mean by I get the theory of why it worked but the part where they actually put it into practice and pulled it off defies my ability to comprehend. Pretty much every aspect of what Ukraine did to stop Russia is going to be shaping how wars are fought for the next century. They just wrote the textbook on several significant aspects of warfare.

Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 11:36 on Oct 7, 2022

# ? Oct 7, 2022 11:30

Phlegmish: Jul 2, 2011

KitConstantine posted:

Also MAPS
https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1578176013237858306?t=EA1IwhMaXQneP7IJMAIcXA&s=19

The Kupiansk and Lyman frontlines are getting tantalizingly close to linking up now. I don't know if it means anything in strategic terms, I just like things to be neat

# ? Oct 7, 2022 11:44

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

Phlegmish posted:

The Kupiansk and Lyman frontlines are getting tantalizingly close to linking up now. I don't know if it means anything in strategic terms, I just like things to be neat

It�s the same military operation. They want to get on the roads leading to Svatove, and liberate it through an attack on two fronts. It�s the centrepiece of the majority of the remaining transport arteries southbound into Luhansk.

# ? Oct 7, 2022 12:05

mobby_6kl: Aug 9, 2009; by Fluffdaddy

Herstory Begins Now posted:

The more we learn about the early days of the war the less I feel like I understand how Ukraine actually stopped the Russian military. Like I get the big picture stuff and all the rot that destroyed the Russians from the inside, but the human side of it of a bunch of lightly armed uncles living in trenches in whatever tree cover they could find getting shelled and fighting off repeated russian armored pushes is just an insane accomplishment. Honestly I think people buy into the pro-ukraine propaganda about Russian incompetence too much sometimes to the extent that they lose sight of just how crazy what Ukraine accomplished really is. Incompetent and rotten or not, the Russian military never stopped being incredibly capable of unleashing destruction around it. Standing up to that and willing the possibility of victory into existence is incredible.

I try to emphasize this whenever a conversation gets too far into "russia is a bunch of useless morons". I mean that's true but it's still a huge army with shitloads of heavy weapons. Fighting them is extremely difficult and comes at a huge human cost to Ukraine, and that tends to get overlooked.

# ? Oct 7, 2022 12:06

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Of that, by far the most baffling to me was to read about the 1st GTA being stopped dead in its tracks under Chernihiv. In Soviet times, they were the expected tip of the spear in a European ground war against NATO.

I don't think Brezhnev had illusions that GRU could just bribe West German commanders to let Warsaw Pact troops drive to the Rhine. Soviets would have gone in with a bang. Their soldiers wouldn't have been surprised to learn that they were in war.

For one thing, Russia initially brought against Ukraine fewer troops than USA and her allies brought against Iraq in 2003. Just from that alone it was apparent that Russia couldn't achieve much unless Ukrainian resistance just completely folded or unless the attack on Kyiv was just a feint. And even though Ukraine's focus in defending Kyiv and Kharkiv did leave the southern parts vulnerable, it would be difficult to call that a feint when Russians went balls in and had to call a disordered retreat. They just completely misestimated their and Ukraine's capabilities.

Maybe if they had started mobilisation by April then they would now have well trained reserves to feed into combat and things would look different, but for unexplained reasons that didn't happen until now when it's too late to stop fronts from caving in.

# ? Oct 7, 2022 12:15

Owling Howl: Jul 17, 2019

Russian strategy was based on rapid Ukrainian collapse and surrender which didn't happen and then they suffered heavy losses which they are struggling to recover from.

If Russia had planned to fight an actual war and moved methodically from the East and South they would be in a far better position now although even in that scenario I don't see how they could take the cities without doing to every one of them what they did to Mariupol and having to mobilize to do it.

Any notion of Russian forces sweeping across Europe has been thoroughly debunked though. If you can't handle S-300s and stingers you'll be driving on Warsaw without air cover. And logistics apparently.

# ? Oct 7, 2022 12:42

Feliday Melody: May 8, 2021

I think if Russia thought that this was going to require a proper war to win. Then they would have delayed the invasion until they were again ready to make it a quick headshot on Kiev.

# ? Oct 7, 2022 12:49

Zedsdeadbaby: Jun 14, 2008; You have been called out, in the ways of old.

Feliday Melody posted:

I think if Russia thought that this was going to require a proper war to win. Then they would have delayed the invasion until they were again ready to make it a quick headshot on Kiev.

That was their original plan, go straight for Kiev and force them to capitulate in 3 days or so.
But as a philosopher once said, everybody has a plan 'til they get punched in the mouth.

# ? Oct 7, 2022 12:54

saratoga: Mar 5, 2001; This is a Randbrick post. It goes in that D&D megathread on page 294

"i think obama was mediocre in that debate, but hillary was fucking terrible. also russert is filth."

-randbrick, 12/26/08

gay picnic defence posted:

If you have a look through the pictures on Oryx's site you can tell the really old stuff because it's really rusted out.

A lot of that is recent gear that was fire damaged. Fire burns away paint and then oxidizes steel really quickly so it looks older.

# ? Oct 7, 2022 12:55

mobby_6kl: Aug 9, 2009; by Fluffdaddy

Zedsdeadbaby posted:

That was their original plan, go straight for Kiev and force them to capitulate in 3 days or so.
But as a philosopher once said, everybody has a plan 'til they get punched in the mouth.

Yes but they though they'd be welcomed with open arms, hence the OP's point. They'd do the same thing, just with more forces accounting for actual resistance. Thankfully they didn't this time, so

# ? Oct 7, 2022 13:03

Atreiden: May 4, 2008

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1578337586527211520

# ? Oct 7, 2022 13:10

Luigi's Discount Porn Bin: Jul 19, 2000; Oven Wrangler

sniper4625 posted:

Where are you hearing Bakhmut is about to fall?

Certainly nothing definite, but there are a few surrounding settlements that have fallen in the past week or so - Zaitseve yesterday, which is right on the doorstep of Bakhmut - so Wagner is making slow, bloody progress. Recently some OSINT accounts are describing the situation from the Ukrainian perspective as "difficult," which from previous (mostly Russian) examples in this war I take to mean "it's going pretty badly for us and a retreat looks likely"

e.g.
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1578305957485871104
https://twitter.com/TallbarFIN/status/1578309075749974016

# ? Oct 7, 2022 13:11

Feliday Melody: May 8, 2021

I think one of the strong early indicators that an invasion wasn't going to happen. Was that foreign intelligence services saw the numbers that Russia had deployed. And with even basic, surface level understanding of the Ukrainian military. It was nowhere near enough for the kind of victory that Russia needed.

It was too far-fetched that Russia believed that they could win with those forces.

# ? Oct 7, 2022 13:11

Phlegmish: Jul 2, 2011

Luigi's Discount Porn Bin posted:

Certainly nothing definite, but there are a few surrounding settlements that have fallen in the past week or so - Zaitseve yesterday, which is right on the doorstep of Bakhmut - so Wagner is making slow, bloody progress. Recently some OSINT accounts are describing the situation from the Ukrainian perspective as "difficult," which from previous (mostly Russian) examples in this war I take to mean "it's going pretty badly for us and a retreat looks likely"

Bakhmut is the only part of the frontline I'm worried about, it does indeed look like the Russians are making slow but steady progress there. I wonder if it would help to reinforce it, or if its fall is inevitable at this point. Would be something of a blow to Ukraine, as it was a city of 70K+ people before the war.

# ? Oct 7, 2022 13:17

TheDeadlyShoe: Feb 14, 2014

Feliday Melody posted:

I think one of the strong early indicators that an invasion wasn't going to happen. Was that foreign intelligence services saw the numbers that Russia had deployed. And with even basic, surface level understanding of the Ukrainian military. It was nowhere near enough for the kind of victory that Russia needed.

It was too far-fetched that Russia believed that they could win with those forces.

I think when people say that they're talking about how many troops would be needed to militarily occupy a country the size of Ukraine, which would indeed be very large. However I don't think the Russians ever planned on such an occupation. I think they planned for a swift, victorious war where the government fell, they routed the AFU in the field, they took whatever territory they liked, and left the rest in the hands of a humiliated Kyiv - showing the world what exactly American backing was worth.

# ? Oct 7, 2022 13:17

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# ? Jun 4, 2024 09:57

Tuna-Fish: Sep 13, 2017

Luigi's Discount Porn Bin posted:

a few surrounding settlements that have fallen in the past week or so - Zaitseve yesterday,

What is your source for Zaitseve falling yesterday? Russia has claimed to have taken Zaitseve about two dozen times now. Russia was still shelling it in the morning, so that would imply they haven't taken it yet.

# ? Oct 7, 2022 13:20

The Something Awful Forums > Archives > Comedy Goldmine > The Goodmine > READ OP! War in Ukraine: a distressed blender making too many margaritas at once

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