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https://twitter.com/John_Hudson/status/1589023548999225349
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# ? Nov 6, 2022 02:29 |
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# ? Jun 3, 2024 21:53 |
The lede: https://twitter.com/John_Hudson/status/1589024287721402368 Edit: Speaking of recent news, I'll get around another summary soon, just getting slammed by this week every day in and out basically. In the meantime, here's a morbid report about the occupation regime in Kherson: https://www.ft.com/content/99349f01-c587-4ab4-86df-85ff3c0fcd3b quote:Natalia Chorna had warned her more outspoken twin sister to be careful after Russian forces occupied their home town of Skadovsk near Kherson, southern Ukraine, in February. But Tetyana Mudryenko found it hard to keep her anger about the war to herself. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 02:36 on Nov 6, 2022 |
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# ? Nov 6, 2022 02:32 |
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cinci zoo sniper posted:The lede: gently caress that clickbait title, Jesus Christ. Zero nuance at loving all. I know I was pissed when I read it prior to reading the article.
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# ? Nov 6, 2022 04:13 |
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The war aim has always been restoring territorial integrity, the removal of Putin/Balkanization of Russia stuff was clearly just for propaganda value, but isn't useful international signaling.
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# ? Nov 6, 2022 04:21 |
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FishBulbia posted:The war aim has always been restoring territorial integrity, the removal of Putin/Balkanization of Russia stuff was clearly just for propaganda value, but isn't useful international signaling. I'd assune the war aims include ensuring future territorial soverignity. In which case putins continued hand on the wheel is a non starter no?
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# ? Nov 6, 2022 06:21 |
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Defenestrategy posted:I'd assune the war aims include ensuring future territorial soverignity. In which case putins continued hand on the wheel is a non starter no? But of course the chances of Putin pulling fully out of Ukraine via negotiations are basically zero.
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# ? Nov 6, 2022 10:11 |
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The chances of Putin pulling out and agreeing to American bases on his border are less than zero.
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# ? Nov 6, 2022 10:23 |
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Russia's position at every point has been 'we are open to negotiations... but not with the drug addict nazi zelensky regime' so really it wouldn't hurt Ukraine at all to take a mirror position calling that out. e: the core problem is that Putin already rejected all the reasonable compromises so any sudden change of heart would be tainted by 'you are only agreeing to this because you have literally no other choice and will renege at the first opportunity, as you always do'. Alchenar fucked around with this message at 10:27 on Nov 6, 2022 |
# ? Nov 6, 2022 10:24 |
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Ukraine reporting huge numbers of Russian casualties in recent days. Are the conscripts finally reaching the front in numbers? https://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-armed-forces-kill-over-071828396.html
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# ? Nov 6, 2022 11:10 |
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There has been less scaremongering regarding nuclear weapons use, could it be that Scholz and Xi made a deal where they made the chimp with a grenade shut the gently caress up about Armageddon? https://mobile.twitter.com/bopanc/status/1588597226015756291
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# ? Nov 6, 2022 11:12 |
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TheRat posted:The chances of Putin pulling out and agreeing to American bases on his border are less than zero. A security guarantee does not require forward bases in Ukraine. Edit plus there are of course forward US bases bordering Russia in Poland and the Baltics; it’s not exactly a new security threat.
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# ? Nov 6, 2022 12:56 |
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Charlz Guybon posted:Ukraine reporting huge numbers of Russian casualties in recent days. Are the conscripts finally reaching the front in numbers? Yes, there was a report from Russian independent outlet yesterday that there was a massive strike on Makiivka. https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1588998226652581888?t=KdV4hmdD-EBZs0ZzLuOLHA&s=19
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# ? Nov 6, 2022 13:05 |
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quote:the unit was supposed to stay 15 kilometers away from the front line but was deployed there without equipment on the night of Nov. 2. When Russian positions were shelled by Ukrainian artillery, Russian commanders fled from the position. This sounds comical (unarmed conscripts told a lie about what they’d be doing and where they’d be sent who are abandoned by their leaders the moment the fighting starts) but also in line with many things we’ve seen Scratch Monkey fucked around with this message at 13:27 on Nov 6, 2022 |
# ? Nov 6, 2022 13:15 |
This is toeing borderline on my preference to not see empty quotes in D&D. Please add your commentary to the post.
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# ? Nov 6, 2022 13:18 |
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fatherboxx posted:Yes, there was a report from Russian independent outlet yesterday that there was a massive strike on Makiivka. Russian Z-channels confirm the attack, but insist it's Ukrainians who suffered heavy losses. It feels like, at least with the telegram channels I check on from time to time, the more vocal critics of Putin's mobilisation among the pro-war crowd got reigned in a bit, and reporting on problems has subsided, as instead they focus on how Ukrainians are about to flood Kherson.
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# ? Nov 6, 2022 13:28 |
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fatherboxx posted:Yes, there was a report from Russian independent outlet yesterday that there was a massive strike on Makiivka. Considering that these are conscripts, that’s bleak and just… kinda gives you an empty feeling. What a waste. The whole war. I’ve tried to imagine being the parents of one of those conscripts and man… I’m not sure how there aren’t more examples of blood in the streets (people breaking and lashing out) in Russia. I don’t blame Ukraine and fully support them defending their homes. But that can’t feel good to hear, knowing that some poor bastard just got smoked and there’s a real big chance he was forced to be there by the people invading your home. At least with Russian contract troops you can say that they’re 97% pieces of poo poo for being complicit. Russia is just real hosed up and it’s sad to see blood being spilt let alone for the nothing cause that this war is.
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# ? Nov 6, 2022 14:45 |
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cinci zoo sniper posted:The differences are not major, they just occasionally have out-of-place lingo, like if you'd imagine someone replying to a street dealer pronouncing weed price with “copy that”. Could also be a case of military people using military terms to civilians? I know I've done it and seen many other people do it too. Especially junior/new folks. This is my first post in D&D and I hope it's not breaking the rules to post conjecture like this.
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# ? Nov 6, 2022 15:03 |
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https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/general_atomics_plans_to_providing_ukraine_with_own_uavs-4754.html Sounds like Ukraine is going to get Reapers and Hellfires. That will change things in theater quite a bit.
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# ? Nov 6, 2022 15:05 |
Flyinglemur posted:Could also be a case of military people using military terms to civilians? I know I've done it and seen many other people do it too. Especially junior/new folks. That’s not quite what I was trying suggest - I just wanted to illustrate the mood of how obvious these things can get. Imagine, idk, some American calling home during Desert Storm and randomly mentioning that he got his rear end handed to him by the 69th company of 420th separate platoon of Al-Qaeda mountain infantry of bin Laden’s Order - it’s a very clearly an out-of-place, unnecessarily specific detail that is not unquestionably known to some rank and file machinist, which wouldn’t be conveyed as formally to a call to their mum even if it was known.
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# ? Nov 6, 2022 15:27 |
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So what happened with the Russian "withdrawal" from Kherson? It’s been several days and it’s a huge city so there’s no way opsec can keep reliable news from leaking out. I guess Russian military forces have been reduced in the city, but that there was no complete withdrawal, and Ukraine doesn’t want to attack even a lightly-defended city since it would mean it gets smashed to rubble? Seems kind of smart for Russia, they can probably hold Kherson with a fairly limited deployment if they don’t tbh think the Ukrainian military will engage in offensive city combat.
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# ? Nov 6, 2022 15:45 |
Saladman posted:So what happened with the Russian "withdrawal" from Kherson? It’s been several days and it’s a huge city so there’s no way opsec can keep reliable news from leaking out. I guess Russian military forces have been reduced in the city, but that there was no complete withdrawal, and Ukraine doesn’t want to attack even a lightly-defended city since it would mean it gets smashed to rubble? There wasn’t any evidence for it several days ago, and there still hardly is any. A big reason for why the civilian leaks are scant from the area lately is that access to the Internet has been mostly cut from the Russia-controlled parts on the right bank, both wired and mobile. Likewise, we don’t even have clarity on whether if Ukrainian forces actually are within a meaningful reach from the Kherson city, as in to have a file of APC attempting riding into it.
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# ? Nov 6, 2022 16:29 |
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Saladman posted:So what happened with the Russian "withdrawal" from Kherson? It’s been several days and it’s a huge city so there’s no way opsec can keep reliable news from leaking out. I guess Russian military forces have been reduced in the city, but that there was no complete withdrawal, and Ukraine doesn’t want to attack even a lightly-defended city since it would mean it gets smashed to rubble? https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-5 quote:Russian occupation officials continue to drive the “evacuation” and forced relocation of residents of Kherson Oblast. Head of the Ukrainian “Kherson Hub” headquarters Roman Golovnya stated on November 5 that since the beginning of the war, over 80% of Kherson City’s residents have left the city. Russian sources continue to perpetuate information operations regarding Ukrainian strikes on civilian infrastructure in Kherson Oblast to continue to manipulate evacuation efforts. Russian officials also continue efforts to deport Ukrainian children under the guise of ”vacation” schemes, and Russian media reported that children from Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast, are remaining at vacation camps in Yevpatoria, Russian-occupied Crimea. More genociding, but I haven't seen any evidence of the Russian military feint operation that people have been speculating about.
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# ? Nov 6, 2022 16:30 |
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Yeah, its hard to know whats going on, but Ukraine is highly suspicious that Russia tried to set up some kind of trap by pulling out civilians and hiding a large number of forces inside homes, and they aren't going to just enthusiastically rush into that trap.
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# ? Nov 6, 2022 16:30 |
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Rigel posted:Yeah, its hard to know whats going on, but Ukraine is highly suspicious that Russia tried to set up some kind of trap by pulling out civilians and hiding a large number of forces inside homes, and they aren't going to just enthusiastically rush into that trap. They don't even have to, it's far safer to go around the city core and just sever military supply lines completely. Then, even if there is a trap, the soldiers manning the trap have become the trapped.
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# ? Nov 6, 2022 16:51 |
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More In Moscow's Shadows: In Moscow's Shadows 82: What Prigozhin Wants, What Putin Believes, and Why Russia Might Create its own Bureau 39
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# ? Nov 6, 2022 17:35 |
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cinci zoo sniper posted:That’s not quite what I was trying suggest - I just wanted to illustrate the mood of how obvious these things can get. Imagine, idk, some American calling home during Desert Storm and randomly mentioning that he got his rear end handed to him by the 69th company of 420th separate platoon of Al-Qaeda mountain infantry of bin Laden’s Order - it’s a very clearly an out-of-place, unnecessarily specific detail that is not unquestionably known to some rank and file machinist, which wouldn’t be conveyed as formally to a call to their mum even if it was known. I got you. The previous example wasn't that specific and like I said I know it's easy to just get stuck in the jargon in casual conversations.
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# ? Nov 6, 2022 17:44 |
Flyinglemur posted:I got you. The previous example wasn't that specific and like I said I know it's easy to just get stuck in the jargon in casual conversations. Ah, my bad, I misunderstood you then.
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# ? Nov 6, 2022 17:52 |
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Somaen posted:There has been less scaremongering regarding nuclear weapons use, could it be that Scholz and Xi made a deal where they made the chimp with a grenade shut the gently caress up about Armageddon? It's hard to sell the wares that your economy is dependant on when your main customers are a smoldering wasteland.
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# ? Nov 6, 2022 19:47 |
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Paladinus posted:Russian Z-channels confirm the attack, but insist it's Ukrainians who suffered heavy losses. It feels like, at least with the telegram channels I check on from time to time, the more vocal critics of Putin's mobilisation among the pro-war crowd got reigned in a bit, and reporting on problems has subsided, as instead they focus on how Ukrainians are about to flood Kherson. And of course, just as I post this, there are now posts about huge losses in Pavlivka and plenty of criticism of the generals (without naming any names) who hide the truth. Paladinus fucked around with this message at 20:00 on Nov 6, 2022 |
# ? Nov 6, 2022 19:54 |
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https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1589300375583981569
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# ? Nov 6, 2022 19:56 |
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Saladman posted:So what happened with the Russian "withdrawal" from Kherson? It’s been several days and it’s a huge city so there’s no way opsec can keep reliable news from leaking out. I guess Russian military forces have been reduced in the city, but that there was no complete withdrawal, and Ukraine doesn’t want to attack even a lightly-defended city since it would mean it gets smashed to rubble? The city itself is not really defensible, it is tucked up against a river and some impassible, freezing cold swamp land, and the crossings are in front of the city closer to the front line. If fighting reaches the city itself, the forces inside are already cut off, so any real urban fighting is pretty unlikely and removing unnecessary forces from there is logical (and should have been done months ago). Everything I've seen looks like a fighting retreat, with secondary lines prepared to fall back to once the city begins to become in danger of being cutoff. So far, the Russians are holding the crossings, so they're not yet in danger of being trapped, and sticking around to make the UA's life difficult.
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# ? Nov 6, 2022 19:56 |
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I saw on Al Jazeera that there was an explosion at the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam, but now it seems it’s just 3 explosions on the power lines near it, leaving Kherson without power. the Russians of course blame Ukraine. I’m really hoping they’re not gonna blow the dam, but with their evacuation of the city, and now the ‘Ukrainian sabotage’, it really feels like they might be willing to take everything to yet another level. Apparently they already prepared 3 lines of trenches on the east bank and will probably reorganize there during winter?
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# ? Nov 6, 2022 21:43 |
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mrfart posted:I saw on Al Jazeera that there was an explosion at the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam, but now it seems it’s just 3 explosions on the power lines near it, leaving Kherson without power. the Russians of course blame Ukraine. I’m really hoping they’re not gonna blow the dam, but with their evacuation of the city, and now the ‘Ukrainian sabotage’, it really feels like they might be willing to take everything to yet another level. Apparently they already prepared 3 lines of trenches on the east bank and will probably reorganize there during winter? If the Russians are about to blow the dam, isn't it compromising mostly their own positions at the South side of the river and making the organized retreat even more difficult than it already is? Kherson, and the rest of the West/North bank sits on the higher ground. Not to mention the fact that it compromises their water supply to Crimea.
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# ? Nov 6, 2022 21:49 |
Der Kyhe posted:If the Russians are about to blow the dam, isn't it compromising mostly their own positions at the South side of the river and making the organized retreat even more difficult than it already is? Kherson, and the rest of the West/North bank sits on the higher ground. Not to mention the fact that it compromises their water supply to Crimea. Yeah, it would flood the zone earmarked for defensive positions (15 km buffer from Dnipro shoreline, starting from the sea and ending around Enerhodar).
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# ? Nov 6, 2022 21:53 |
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Was the Russian 155th Marine (Naval Infantry?) Brigade one of those involved in the conquest of Mariupol?
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# ? Nov 6, 2022 21:59 |
Ynglaur posted:Was the Russian 155th Marine (Naval Infantry?) Brigade one of those involved in the conquest of Mariupol? Yes, 155th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade of the Pacific Fleet.
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# ? Nov 6, 2022 22:05 |
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In NATO news, Turkey continues to block Finland and Sweden from NATO membership. Main NATO dude Stoltenberg has seemed less patient lately. Article in Foreign Policyquote:But Western officials also believe that Turkey’s cold feet are due as much to Russian economic influence as any purported concern over Kurdish separatists. Since the start of the war—and a wave of Western sanctions on Moscow—Turkey has often acted as an economic lifeline for Russia, increasing its purchases of Russian crude oil, pushing for more (and discounted) Russian gas, and moving forward multibillion-dollar plans for a Russian-made nuclear power plant. (There's a link to Financial Times article on Turkey-Russia economics recently but that's paywalled for me) Finnish news Yle writes (in Finnish) that Turkey is still asking Finland and especially Sweden to hand over some "terrorists". It's possible that Erdogan genuinely believes that our governments work in the same way as his, i.e. that the government can just decide to ignore laws and human rights treaties and decide to send people over. Of course it's actually the courts that decide things like this and they will follow the law. One Finnish tabloid has just published, with interesting timing, an interesting article (in Finnish) about the last time Finland decided to expel some people to a non-nice country. Namely, during the second world war some Jewish refugees were given over to Nazi Germany, when it was obvious to everyone that they would die horribly there. Eventually this stopped, but several such transportations occurred (dozens of Jewish people) before it became public after which the government was pressured enough to stop it. Wikipedia doesn't seem to have much info on this except in Finnish.
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# ? Nov 7, 2022 00:18 |
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Saladman posted:So what happened with the Russian "withdrawal" from Kherson? It’s been several days and it’s a huge city so there’s no way opsec can keep reliable news from leaking out. I guess Russian military forces have been reduced in the city, but that there was no complete withdrawal, and Ukraine doesn’t want to attack even a lightly-defended city since it would mean it gets smashed to rubble? It was largely disinfo or misinfo. Ukrainian sources have been confirming continuing Russian movement in both directions across the Dnipro and continuing Russian troop presence in Kherson. Russian doctrine calls for defense in depth (typically three levels of lines), so they are likely digging in both sides of the Dnipro in order to make Ukraine's advance as painful and difficult as possible in line with their policy. It is likely that their best troops are still concentrated in the region.
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# ? Nov 7, 2022 01:23 |
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:A security guarantee does not require forward bases in Ukraine. I spent 6 months in Estonia as a PAO, covering our training with the defense force there. We had a small team take part in a soapbox derby in Narva, literally a river away from Russia. We did tank live-fire exercises, airborne jumps and NATO combined exercises. We taught them how to use TOWs and Javelins, and took part in their parades and military morale exercises like the Admiral Pitka. We have had a sizeable presence in the Baltics for years now, and never hid it once. But it wasn't until Putin needed a pretext for a war that the whole 'NATO Escalation' flag got waved. Hell, we had trainer teams In Ukraine since 2015 as part of the US commitment to help shore up the UAF after Crimea was stolen.
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# ? Nov 7, 2022 01:40 |
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# ? Jun 3, 2024 21:53 |
jaete posted:In NATO news, Turkey continues to block Finland and Sweden from NATO membership. Main NATO dude Stoltenberg has seemed less patient lately. Article in Foreign Policy I apologize if this is bordering on Clancychat or getting away from the topic at hand, but surely there must be a breaking point to this. If Erdogan keeps pushing back against the alliance's wishes in this manner, how likely would it be that they eventually just decide it's not worth the trouble and leave Turkey to the wolves? The only real reason I can find for keeping them around is their control of the Bosporus, and Russia is so depleted at this point that any attempt to exert military influence over Turkey would be even more disastrous than what we're currently seeing. Bloody Pom fucked around with this message at 04:57 on Nov 7, 2022 |
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# ? Nov 7, 2022 04:54 |