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Kraftwerk posted:So why is the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff setting low expectations for Ukraine pushing out the Russians? Ukraine has been given NASAMS haven't they? That will make it impossible for Ukraine to run out of anti-air missiles before Russia runs out of missiles. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NASAMS
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Nov 25, 2022 04:42
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Charlz Guybon posted:Ukraine has been given NASAMS haven't they? That will make it impossible for Ukraine to run out of anti-air missiles before Russia runs out of missiles. It's quite possible for Ukraine to run out of power plants before more than 2 of these are delivered.
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Nov 25, 2022 05:38
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Sekenr posted:https://twitter.com/tannyshanny/status/1595799109113372675?t=QwnFWRUEv1sqXJ3p6whnWA&s=19 And here's it compared to the 4th day of the invasion https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.go...-T00%3A00%3A00Z Honestly, it looks like Ukraine lost a lot of its lighting right at the start, the biggest difference seems to be Kyiv. perhaps a lot of it is due to road traffic? You can see the evacuation from Kyiv and through feb 25. FishBulbia fucked around with this message at 06:01 on Nov 25, 2022 |
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Nov 25, 2022 05:58
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FishBulbia posted:And here's it compared to the 4th day of the invasion To me it seems just like a lower resolution photo. There are several other countries with diminished lighting because the new photo is all blurry.
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Nov 25, 2022 07:09
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Tafferling posted:To me it seems just like a lower resolution photo. There are several other countries with diminished lighting because the new photo is all blurry. The lights in metro area Kyiv are for sure out, but a lot of the darkness looks close to how its looked for the whole war.
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Nov 25, 2022 07:23
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Hah, I was checking out Perun's channel and I had no idea he used to be an exclusively video game channel until the war started. Since then he's done exclusively war related videos
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Nov 25, 2022 07:40
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He put the game stuff onto another channel. He did a bunch of Terra Invicta videos lately. Probably doesn't want to mix the war presentation videos with his defending the earth from alien threat videos.
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Nov 25, 2022 08:03
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HonorableTB posted:Hah, I was checking out Perun's channel and I had no idea he used to be an exclusively video game channel until the war started. Since then he's done exclusively war related videos Quite a few have made the switch; Jake Broe (ex USAF) ran a YT channel doing stock & shares stuff but now does Ukraine related work, nothing near the level of Perun but interesting.
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Nov 25, 2022 09:49
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Orthanc6 posted:Whether Putin knows that or not is rather irrelevant; if he can't win on the battlefield then causing internal strife in Ukraine, or NATO, or both, is the only chance Putin has at holding on to anything at the end of all this. And with the isolationist/treasonous parts of the GOP not getting substantial control from the US midterms, the primary force of NATO won't be folding for at least another 2 years. By which time this could all be over, ideally with Putin being defenestrated multiple times. Fair, I guess there is a chance his strategy could work and at the least he can delay the inevitable but goddamn that is brutal as hell.
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Nov 25, 2022 15:42
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Orthanc6 posted:There's a chance he knows his bombing campaign won't work, it never worked in the past. In WW2 several German cities were bombed to dirt, nothing but capturing the entire country and deleting the entire government could force peace. Japan surrendered cause they were an island that had lost the air and sea war, and then with the US on their doorstep the Soviets tagged in. Tokyo, Hiroshima and Nagasaki being levelled didn't stop them, they would have made the US bleed for every inch of Honshu if it wasn't for the super-power team up. That's a hell of a long time to wait, especially for what amounts to a Hail Mary that "US GOP outsiders win big AND are able to overpower both the democrats and hardcore US MIC Republican supporters." He's got to have some angle that doesn't revolve around the US suddenly deciding it doesn't like making things go boom. I guess a GOP controlled government might cut off non-MIC financial aid to Ukraine, but cutting off MIC aid seems like a pipedream. My guess is that they don't really have much of a plan for after their original plan of "Ukraine folds like a house of cards" failed. But hey, no one knows except for Putin and maybe some of his innermost coterie.
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Nov 25, 2022 16:09
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:Fair, I guess there is a chance his strategy could work and at the least he can delay the inevitable but goddamn that is brutal as hell. Play to your outs, even if it costs you the game.
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Nov 25, 2022 16:37
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Saladman posted:That's a hell of a long time to wait, especially for what amounts to a Hail Mary that "US GOP outsiders win big AND are able to overpower both the democrats and hardcore US MIC Republican supporters." He's got to have some angle that doesn't revolve around the US suddenly deciding it doesn't like making things go boom. The MIC will win either way and I would not count them as friends. Even if the conflict ends, if a Russian victory means a return to cold war tensions and a massive military build up in Europe, the MIC will feast. Long term its more profitable for there to be a forever cold war rather than a clean decisive end to this one.
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Nov 25, 2022 17:06
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Saladman posted:That's a hell of a long time to wait, especially for what amounts to a Hail Mary that "US GOP outsiders win big AND are able to overpower both the democrats and hardcore US MIC Republican supporters." He's got to have some angle that doesn't revolve around the US suddenly deciding it doesn't like making things go boom. Yeah, it's pretty clear that Putin didn't really have a plan other than "they will greet us as liberators" -- or more precisely, he doesn't really believe in democracy as a concept and thus assumed the Ukrainian government would react as one of his own puppet governments would react -- and since then he's been flailing around between the barriers of his own blinkered delusions and the concrete realities of overwhelming western military force. Given all that, and given that he believes he cannot admit weakness or failure in any way, "play it out and wait for a break" is the best strategy he has, and it might even work. Like, the GOP could've won in the midterms, or Trump could win in 2024. Or maybe he just makes life in Ukraine so miserable that everyone leaves as refugees. Or worst case he just keeps dragging it out for the next ten or fifteen or twenty years and then it's the next Tsar's problem not his any more. He's wrong -- his best strategy would've been to cut his losses early, blame evil western interference, and move on -- but if he was sharp enough to do that he would've been sharp enough to not invade in the first place.
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Nov 25, 2022 17:08
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https://twitter.com/Andrew__Roth/status/1596166594752909314?t=IYZfcuzM75h1ZoA4uOGHlw&s=19 Expected clown show
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Nov 25, 2022 17:10
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Mooseontheloose posted:Play to your outs, even if it costs you the game. Technically, when you have to play to your outs, you are already on the path to defeat but it's the point that gets made every few weeks or so when people are 'wondering' why Putin is still at it or doing the things he is doing. This is the only path to victory he has left and he is playing it out.
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Nov 25, 2022 18:23
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MikeC posted:Technically, when you have to play to your outs, you are already on the path to defeat but it's the point that gets made every few weeks or so when people are 'wondering' why Putin is still at it or doing the things he is doing. Even then, that's a freaking awful victory. I would think that if he keeps pushing too much there's real risk his whole plan could backfire. Edit - Unless he's that good of a propagandist but from what I'm seeing cracks are starting to show. Gucci Loafers fucked around with this message at 18:34 on Nov 25, 2022 |
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Nov 25, 2022 18:27
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Sekenr posted:https://twitter.com/tannyshanny/status/1595799109113372675?t=QwnFWRUEv1sqXJ3p6whnWA&s=19 What's this light splotch in the black sea? 
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Nov 25, 2022 18:31
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Scratch Monkey posted:What's this light splotch in the black sea? Probably Snake Island. It has a lighthouse, thus its own generator.
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Nov 25, 2022 18:34
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Scratch Monkey posted:What's this light splotch in the black sea? Celebratory signal fires on Snake Island.
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Nov 25, 2022 18:35
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:Even then, that's a freaking awful victory. I would think that if he keeps pushing too much there's real risk his whole plan could backfire. You think he could survive a total defeat and remain in power? I suspect he is all in on this because the moment the war ends, if he doesn't have anything to show for it, it might literally be curtains for him.
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Nov 25, 2022 18:38
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MikeC posted:You think he could survive a total defeat and remain in power? I suspect he is all in on this because the moment the war ends, if he doesn't have anything to show for it, it might literally be curtains for him. I mean, he probably could, because he currently is. He doesn't think he can because he's paranoid but it appears he actually does have pretty solid control overall. If a defeat could topple him this defeat would have, right? One of the big issues here is that Putin is extremely powerful but also extremely insecure in his power, so he thinks he has to constantly front. If he were actually that weak he'd have been overthrown by now. Hieronymous Alloy fucked around with this message at 18:57 on Nov 25, 2022 |
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Nov 25, 2022 18:43
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MikeC posted:You think he could survive a total defeat and remain in power? I suspect he is all in on this because the moment the war ends, if he doesn't have anything to show for it, it might literally be curtains for him. Not sure, even if his armed forces are annihilated it does seem like he's still quite powerful. There's no real political opposition and I don't think he even has a successor.
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Nov 25, 2022 18:52
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Scratch Monkey posted:What's this light splotch in the black sea? It some gas/drilling platforms in the Black Sea. Seized by Russia during the Crimean takeover.
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Nov 25, 2022 18:58
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HonorableTB posted:Hah, I was checking out Perun's channel and I had no idea he used to be an exclusively video game channel until the war started. Since then he's done exclusively war related videos I play Dominions pretty extensively and found Perun when I was looking for nation strategies in a new game I was playing. I was flabbergasted when he put out his first video. I will credit him with making me more knowledgeable more quickly about what was occurring in Ukraine.
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Nov 25, 2022 19:03
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Scratch Monkey posted:What's this light splotch in the black sea? fatherboxx posted:Expected clown show Dwesa fucked around with this message at 19:08 on Nov 25, 2022 |
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Nov 25, 2022 19:05
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An autocrat's hold on power is usually built on personal loyalties rather than democratic legitimisation. They may have their own personal military and police forces loyal only to them, but that can become dangerous once they look weak and vulnerable. That's especially true if a scapegoat is needed after a lost war when it may be tempting to put all the blame on the guy in charge, coup the guy in charge, and go "whoops, sorry, that guy with the funny haircut caused all this and now he's gone, welp, no harm intended right?". Of course, it may also lead to the guy in charge losing his head for being insufficiently radically committed to the cause, as determined by the rabid nutjobs put in place by the now ex-guy formerly in charge (now a head shorter).
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Nov 25, 2022 19:12
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:I mean, he probably could, because he currently is. Yeah, I've made this point several times when people say that Putin is not vulnerable to being removed, that he will stay in power no matter what happens, etc. The argument for that is pretty solid, but I always come back to "well that may all be true, but Putin does not ACT LIKE he's safe. He is acting as if he does not believe he can survive a defeat". Once you understand that, at least in Putin's mind, he thinks he is ruthlessly eliminated if he loses, well then everything else makes sense. Pointlessly throwing away 100's of thousands of lives and destroying the nation's future is something to worry about later if its his only chance and defeat means death.
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Nov 25, 2022 19:22
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It's an oil rig that has been on fire for months https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1538969780903870464?s=20&t=hCy9pyEw7-pG_KAcsXX1DQ
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Nov 25, 2022 19:31
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Saladman posted:That's a hell of a long time to wait, especially for what amounts to a Hail Mary that "US GOP outsiders win big AND are able to overpower both the democrats and hardcore US MIC Republican supporters." He's got to have some angle that doesn't revolve around the US suddenly deciding it doesn't like making things go boom. Fascists tend not to have much in the way of a coherent plan beyond "start a fight with weak decadent racially inferior opponents, and then Triumph Of The Will ensures the rest". When that doesn't work out it then becomes a continuous escalation of digging a deeper and deeper hole because clearly you just didn't Triumph Of The Will hard enough at first.
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Nov 25, 2022 19:39
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FishBulbia posted:It's an oil rig that has been on fire for months Yeah.. it is a constant red dot on the FLIR maps as well
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Nov 25, 2022 19:48
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Rigel posted:Yeah, I've made this point several times when people say that Putin is not vulnerable to being removed, that he will stay in power no matter what happens, etc. The argument for that is pretty solid, but I always come back to "well that may all be true, but Putin does not ACT LIKE he's safe. He is acting as if he does not believe he can survive a defeat". Once you understand that, at least in Putin's mind, he thinks he is ruthlessly eliminated if he loses, well then everything else makes sense. Pointlessly throwing away 100's of thousands of lives and destroying the nation's future is something to worry about later if its his only chance and defeat means death. Don't most tyrants look unassailable right up until the point that they get toppled though? All we see from the outside is that over the past year a lot more Russians have very good reasons to want to get rid of Putin. But the signs that this is likely to actually happen I would think are largely obscured to outsiders right up until the critical moment. Like, even if an anti Putin mob of millions showed up in Red Square, it wouldn't be clear Putin was cooked until the moment the FSB refused or failed to crush that mob. Any indicators THAT might happen are probably only seen in a series of conversations and chatter and other subtle signs that media and those outside the circles of power would not have access to or be able to easily interpret.
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Nov 25, 2022 20:07
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Rigel posted:Yeah, I've made this point several times when people say that Putin is not vulnerable to being removed, that he will stay in power no matter what happens, etc. The argument for that is pretty solid, but I always come back to "well that may all be true, but Putin does not ACT LIKE he's safe. He is acting as if he does not believe he can survive a defeat". Once you understand that, at least in Putin's mind, he thinks he is ruthlessly eliminated if he loses, well then everything else makes sense. Pointlessly throwing away 100's of thousands of lives and destroying the nation's future is something to worry about later if its his only chance and defeat means death. Now this makes perfect sense, he's just buying time. And Russian history isn't kind to folks like him either.
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Nov 25, 2022 20:09
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:Now this makes perfect sense, he's just buying time. And Russian history isn't kind to folks like him either. This is why this war will go on for months. Although its not existential in military terms any longer for either power. Any major concession would likely prove politically existential.
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Nov 25, 2022 20:12
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Antigravitas posted:He put the game stuff onto another channel. He did a bunch of Terra Invicta videos lately. Probably doesn't want to mix the war presentation videos with his defending the earth from alien threat videos. In a similar but unfortunate note, Russia tortured a bunch of STALKER LARPers to death in Russia on suspicion of being an Ukrainian sympathetic terror cell. https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1596066963608178688?s=20&t=9hwofzDaImHf4VnZTZKe6Q The FSB's evidence is that the airsofters had a flag for the STALKER faction "Freedom" which they claim is representative of the Ukrainian Volya or "Liberty" party. https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1596066977038360577?s=20&t=9hwofzDaImHf4VnZTZKe6Q
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Nov 25, 2022 20:26
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Zwabu posted:Don't most tyrants look unassailable right up until the point that they get toppled though? Yeah this goes with the unpredictability of any movement/revolution/coup. Even if it has the momentum to get started, no one knows what will be the tipping point to get results. There's an estimated 500+ deaths for Iran's protests but that regime looks to be hanging on thus far... yet around 100 deaths on the Maidan ousted Yanukovych within weeks. Several assassination attempts were made on Hitler which could have made the ending of the war very different, but surviving those Germany fought to the end instead. Any one of these conscript mutiny's could be the start of a coup. Any amount of Russians supporting Putin openly could secretly want him dead. Even in countries with high degrees of personal freedom we've all seen the giant problems with getting reliable results from polls. The mutiny's are definitely a bad sign for Putin. His own actions also reinforce the idea that he is vulnerable, he at least believes so. And I sure hope he is, but it's also understandable that in many ways he might not look vulnerable. If I was planning to get rid of him I might want him to think I was on his side so he doesn't send me to Ukraine before I can act.
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Nov 25, 2022 20:38
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FishBulbia posted:This is why this war will go on for months. Although its not existential in military terms any longer for either power. Any major concession would likely prove politically existential. How much longer can it really go? How many more defeats with already low morale and lack of supplies can this realistically continue?
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Nov 25, 2022 20:40
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Scratch Monkey posted:What's this light splotch in the black sea? The ghost ship Moskva  Young Freud posted:In a similar but unfortunate note, Russia tortured a bunch of STALKER LARPers to death in Russia on suspicion of being an Ukrainian sympathetic terror cell. S.T.A.L.K.E.R. is a Ukrainian made gateway drug. In the final phase you are addicted to Sims 3. Real patriots larp Metro 2033 
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Nov 25, 2022 20:50
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Zwabu posted:Don't most tyrants look unassailable right up until the point that they get toppled though? Not really? There's always signs, eg increasing opposition, opposition that is suddenly organizing effectively and/or appears well-funded or with significant domestic or foreign allies. On the other end, you see security apparatuses weakening, fleeing (either because of loss of confidence or fear of future reprisals), becoming more dysfunctional or having obviously conflicted loyalties, parts of the military becoming fiefdoms or increasingly corrupt as loyalty becomes paramount, militaries refusing orders (see belarus for what this looks like). Usually you'll have economic or other crises as whatever authority was gluing together civil society starts to come apart. Economic issues are especially common as confidence in civil society evaporates and the economy starts to fall into dysfunction as people sense the instability and start packing up and fleeing. nothing ever really comes out of nowhere unless you just aren't looking Crosby B. Alfred posted:How much longer can it really go? How many more defeats with already low morale and lack of supplies can this realistically continue? Tangibly idk how many more collapses Russia can handle and hell one big collapse that cuts the occupied territory in half would be a huge blow to Russia's strategic situation. With that said, I don't believe that it is clear yet if this is as existential for Putin as people like to make it out to be. It likely is and certainly failure in Ukraine would make Putin's position immensely worse and would give incredible fuel to those opposing him, but idk if there's really a clear replacement or person actually prepared to remove him. Most of the people who would be threats to Putin are currently being grossly enriched by Putin remaining in power. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 21:03 on Nov 25, 2022 |
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Nov 25, 2022 20:53
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:How much longer can it really go? How many more defeats with already low morale and lack of supplies can this realistically continue? You seem to be asking the same questions on repeat, please stop doing that in this thread.
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Nov 25, 2022 20:57
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Nenonen posted:The ghost ship Moskva While the book series is written by a Russian, the games are made by Ukrainians and diverges from the books. I think the post-apocalyptic first-person shooter game preferred by Russians is Escape From Tarkov, since it's made by Russians and the whole premise is not-Wagner vs. not-Blackwater vs. some flavor of not-Muscovite Russian or maybe Ukrainian civilians.
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Nov 25, 2022 21:07
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