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Bar Ran Dun posted:Yeah you aren’t correct about most of this. The entire first paragraph is essentially indisputable, but I invite you to make an attempt beyond "nuh uh!" The second and third paragraphs are basically my subjective commentary, feel free to insert your own takes once you come to terms with the facts in the first paragraph.
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Dec 6, 2022 08:22
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First not all steel is the same. A coated sour service pipe is very different from a wire coil is very different from a large single casting is very different from a stainless cold rolled plate. Second the hollowing out of American industry was less hollowing and more consolidation and automation that shed an immense amount of jobs. Third all production not just our production has globalized. Fourth production, supply chains, are much much more complicated now and that drives the time it takes to produce things more than capacity. Fifth lol you think the recycling of scrap is abnormal or something most steel gets recycled as scrap.
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Dec 6, 2022 08:23
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Yeah fairly certain a good majority of steel today is just scrap metal. It’s cheaper than going straight to iron ore. We already dug up enough of it in the 19th and 20th centuries that it can probably circulate like water in a steam engine. In WW2 the Japanese war industry was driven initially by scrap metal from the United States being converted to steel. There’s absolutely nothing wrong with this from a steel making perspective. Your process and tech matter far more. Like how much molybdenum you wanna add into it and how you form the steel. The US doesn’t have the capability to build nuclear reactor pressure vessels. Those are made in Japan and Russia. Kraftwerk fucked around with this message at 08:35 on Dec 6, 2022 |
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Dec 6, 2022 08:31
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Now I want you to look at the production total for a week “In the week ending on December 3, 2022, domestic raw steel production was 1,630,000 net tons while the capability utilization rate was 73.1 percent. Production was 1,801,000 net tons in the week ending December 3, 2021 while the capability utilization then was 81.6 percent” https://www.steel.org/industry-data/ I want you think about the dead weight I dunno know of let’s say a carrier. How a bout the Ronald Reagan it’s 20628 long tons. I want you think about that single weeks production. Then I want you to think the DWT of that carrier. Then I want you to think about how big of a subsidy that really is.
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Dec 6, 2022 08:34
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Indisputable!
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Dec 6, 2022 08:35
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MikeC posted:I am not going to litigate beyond what is necessary to talk about Ukraine in this thread. If you want to PM me, do so. this is resembling that time when you were laughed out of the milhist thread when you were categorically wrong about everything, and couldn't provide any evidence for your wild claims (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Dec 6, 2022 08:37
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Bar Ran Dun posted:First not all steel is the same. A coated sour service pipe is very different from a wire coil is very different from a large single casting is very different from a stainless cold rolled plate. Yes, but what is your point? Bar Ran Dun posted:Second the hollowing out of American industry was less hollowing and more consolidation and automation that shed an immense amount of jobs. It was, quite emphatically, both. We produce a fraction of what we once did on a per capita basis as well as a lot less on a raw number basis than say 40 years ago. What we do produce is made much more efficiently, yes, as capital demands. Bar Ran Dun posted:Third all production not just our production has globalized. The US led the way in globalization. We made those policy choices and worked to impose that vision on the world. It was no more inevitable than mercantilism was in its own era. That's not to say that we have it worse than any other nation; in many ways we have it much better than many. Most people do not want to work in heavy industry, all else being equal. And our domestic industrial base hasn't been nearly as thoroughly annihilated as, say, the UK. Bar Ran Dun posted:Fourth production, supply chains, are much much more complicated now and that drives the time it takes to produce things more than capacity. That's true, and it's a major downside of the deindustrialization/globalization policy choices we've elected. Supply chains worldwide are now demonstrably extremely brittle and we rely on geopolitical adversaries to provide us with basic inputs that we were once fully capable of sourcing internally. Also, in our hubris and in search of ever greater profits, we put the de facto world industrial center on the other side of the planet. China has most (not all, mind you) of those inputs and intermediary components at its proverbial fingertips. Bar Ran Dun posted:Fifth lol you think the recycling of scrap is abnormal or something most steel gets recycled as scrap. I am not in any way opposed to steel recycling. I think it is a great thing since it's much less carbon intensive. But the EAF plants that recycle scrap and make up 70% of US steel capacity are inherently limited by the amount of scrap input, and they only really do that one thing. We can (and do) import scrap (much of those imports actually came from Ukraine and Russia), but production from ore is far more scalable. You mine more ore and more coal and and make more steel as needed. EAF plants can't really scale on their own. They scale with the availability of scrap on the market; there is no source like an ore mine that will create a bunch more scrap for you if you need it. It's not an issue of too many EAFs specifically, it's the lack of total capacity due to the traditional steel plants dying off, leaving us with largely just a scrap recycling steel industry. Aluminum has gone the same way. The US used to produce 30% of the world's aluminum, now we essentially only recycle scrap aluminum. Good for our local environment, not so great geopolitically. Vox Nihili fucked around with this message at 09:40 on Dec 6, 2022 |
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Dec 6, 2022 08:56
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Charliegrs posted:Did the Ukrainians hit another Russian airbase? Supposedly this is the Kursk Airport in Russia. Sorry for the Reddit link, it's the only place I see these videos because I stay the hell away from Twitter: https://twitter.com/osint_east/status/1600016856957362176?t=lIunCmer74eLMDmx_C0jww&s=19 Looks like it. Michael Kofman was on a panel yesterday; I don’t know if it's going to be put online, but a couple of takeaways were that the most important things right now are ramping up production of PGMs and artillery ammunition, and sustaining political will in the West. I may be slightly off in paraphrasing, but he also said that "boutique" capabilities like these recent drone strikes won't have a significant impact.
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Dec 6, 2022 09:07
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Everyone talking about America being a greying, decaying, post-industrial place is making their points and all, but uh, in the context of this thread, everything you've said about the USA is about 5x more true if you said the same thing verbatim about Russia. Like the US is still a growing, relatively young country that can easily attract international workers, both moderately-skilled factory laborers and highly-skilled engineers. Russia is a shrinking country that can attract some moderately-skilled international workers from central Asia and can't attract highly-skilled engineers from anywhere, plus has a much higher risk of losing the locally-trained highly-skilled workers than say, the US has. No factory engineer in Illinois is going to take up a job offer in Beijing or Moscow.
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Dec 6, 2022 10:09
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Vox Nihili posted:
The USA produced 85.8 million tonnes in 2021 verses 101.4 million in 1980 and 89.7 million tonne in 1990. This may also be a reflection in that steel demand isnt as high as it was 40 years ago either.
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Dec 6, 2022 11:00
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Ynglaur posted:
I think C-RAM is probably the American equivalent, and is likely very effective against both drones and cruise missiles. OTOH, C-RAM is far less mobile than Gepard, and is in fact more of a static air defense system, but still I think it would be ideal for intercepting the sorts of drones and cruise missiles Russia is sending into Ukraine. SolarFire2 fucked around with this message at 11:13 on Dec 6, 2022 |
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Dec 6, 2022 11:07
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https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1600069600745381888?t=1DSJ42M-qfjX8La_DJBH1g&s=19 The complainer in chief is back, defeated not by Ukrainian shells but by Russian bureaucracy in a tale worthy of Haček
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Dec 6, 2022 11:13
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Vox Nihili posted:It was, quite emphatically, both. We produce a fraction of what we once did on a per capita basis as well as a lot less on a raw number basis than say 40 years ago. What we do produce is made much more efficiently, yes, as capital demands.  While pig iron production is down a lot from its peak in the 1970s, steel production seems quite steady (down 10-20% from its absolute peak in the 1970s). That doesn't seem like it is a real bottleneck.
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Dec 6, 2022 11:15
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And I think a lot of steel got replaced by aluminum in these years, as the refinement process made it much more affordable.
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Dec 6, 2022 11:22
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OddObserver posted:Ukraine has Tu-141s. As for cruise missiles, they were pressured in giving them away for security phone not swears. It's just so surprising if a Tu-141 really made it past all Russian defences and jamming, deep into Russian territory and to one of their most valuable strategic targets. This should be a situation where some general faces court martial for neglecting duties. Russians claimed that they actually shot it down, but what does it matter if the debris fell on their own bombers?? We just don't know what modifications Ukraine has been making to its systems during this time, probably better guidance that is less prone for jamming so it wouldn't end up in Croatia.
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Dec 6, 2022 11:47
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Nenonen posted:It's just so surprising if a Tu-141 really made it past all Russian defences and jamming, deep into Russian territory and to one of their most valuable strategic targets. This should be a situation where some general faces court martial for neglecting duties. Russians claimed that they actually shot it down, but what does it matter if the debris fell on their own bombers?? Comedy option: They have removed check for that specific missile model so that they don't jam their own stuff when they launch a Tu-141. Because they sure do have them.
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Dec 6, 2022 11:50
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yeah, it could be squawking Russian IFF codes?
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Dec 6, 2022 11:56
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You should keep in mind that info about Tu-141 comes from a notoriously dumb Russian war correspondent and Russian side has not shown any identifiable wreckage of it.
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Dec 6, 2022 12:14
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Nenonen posted:It's just so surprising if a Tu-141 really made it past all Russian defences and jamming, deep into Russian territory and to one of their most valuable strategic targets. This should be a situation where some general faces court martial for neglecting duties. Russians claimed that they actually shot it down, but what does it matter if the debris fell on their own bombers?? I would assume the first step in turning a recon drone into a cruise missile is removing remote control systems and replacing it with an inertial/satellite navigation. Not a lot to jam, then. Forcing the Russians to jam navigation signals deep in the motherland will probably result in planes running into each other.
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Dec 6, 2022 12:15
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Nenonen posted:It's just so surprising if a Tu-141 really made it past all Russian defences and jamming, deep into Russian territory and to one of their most valuable strategic targets. This should be a situation where some general faces court martial for neglecting duties. Russians claimed that they actually shot it down, but what does it matter if the debris fell on their own bombers?? Lol at that Russian claim to have shot it down. "Yes, we shot it down while it was 99.999% of its way to the target, after it had already flown over our territory for more than an hour". That's about as credible as the Ukrainian policemen in that video where they said they took out a Shahed 136 by wildly shooting into the air with their rifles. In that it's not impossible but (a) doesn't look very likely from the videos and (b) if a missile still hits where it was going to hit originally, does that really count as "shooting it down"? Saladman fucked around with this message at 12:21 on Dec 6, 2022 |
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Dec 6, 2022 12:17
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https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1600058599161602054?cxt=HHwWjICx7bC0xrQsAAAA Kursk airport also hit at night.
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Dec 6, 2022 12:44
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https://twitter.com/SamBendett/status/1600101101503541248?s=20&t=GZz-bNo4LrTqg6LCMPtbxQquote:“It could indeed be the Tu-141 drone that Ukraine used before ,” Samuel Bendett, an expert Russian drones and adviser to both the CNA and CNAS, told Forbes. “We know it can fly long distances since at least one crashed in Croatia. A few of them may still be in flying conditions in the Ukrainian military.” Speculation that it might be something else than Tu-141. I'd assume if no wreckage pictures come out of Russia, that likelihood increases.
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Dec 6, 2022 13:27
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Torrannor posted:And I think a lot of steel got replaced by aluminum in these years, as the refinement process made it much more affordable. World's largest producer of both Bauxite (22% of global) and Iron Ore (36% of global)?   In other news I went to a motorsport event over the weekend, and aside from the usual display of fighting vehicles from the ADF, almost next to them was a display of tractors, all in blue, and I felt someone made a conscious choice.
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Dec 6, 2022 13:45
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It's worth underscoring that a 75 kg payload is tiny compared to a conventional cruise missile. A Tomahawk or Kalibr carry a 400-500 kg payload. Of course planes and fuel tanks are much softer targets than warships, but still, these things are almost toys. The fact that getting just a few puny hits in upsets Russian militants so badly is a testament to the fragility of Russian morale.
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Dec 6, 2022 13:46
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Jasper Tin Neck posted:It's worth underscoring that a 75 kg payload is tiny compared to a conventional cruise missile. A Tomahawk or Kalibr carry a 400-500 kg payload. Nevertheless, it also means that the Russians either need to divide their air forces to become several smaller targets, or increase the distance to Ukraine to be over 700-1000 km, or reassign AA crews and equipment from the front to the approaches to those bases from which their bombers operate. So it realistically should either open gaps to their AA capabilities at the front, or make their logistics operations more complex meaning fewer missiles on smaller launching runs. Realistically both, since who is stupid enough to keep huge part of their military gear on one open airstrip without divider embankments, just waiting for a missile/drone/artillery/guerrillas to strike? Oh....
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Dec 6, 2022 14:00
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Jasper Tin Neck posted:It's worth underscoring that a 75 kg payload is tiny compared to a conventional cruise missile. A Tomahawk or Kalibr carry a 400-500 kg payload. How much was the payload on those floating bombs deployed against the US by Japan during WWII? The US is still talking about it 70 years later and they have their own wikipedia article - something this attack seems unlikely to get. To be fair, one of them hilariously managed to knock out production of enriched uranium for the Manhattan project for three days.
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Dec 6, 2022 14:00
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I wonder how much these cost per kg of payload compared to a cruise missile.
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Dec 6, 2022 14:06
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hell the shahed-136s only have about a 30kg payload. as long as something hits where you want it to hit payload is not the end all be all past a certain point. If the accuracy is there you can get away with miniscule payloads compared to what is needed if you're looking at +/-50m
Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 14:30 on Dec 6, 2022 |
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Dec 6, 2022 14:08
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Jasper Tin Neck posted:It's worth underscoring that a 75 kg payload is tiny compared to a conventional cruise missile. A Tomahawk or Kalibr carry a 400-500 kg payload. Wouldn't call it puny. Any degradation of their bomber fleet means 1) the loss of a plane that is practically irreplaceable at this point and 2) a weakening of the Russian nuclear triad.
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Dec 6, 2022 14:18
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fatherboxx posted:You should keep in mind that info about Tu-141 comes from a notoriously dumb Russian war correspondent and Russian side has not shown any identifiable wreckage of it. And it is a pretty distinctive-looking thing.
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Dec 6, 2022 14:29
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Engels https://twitter.com/SarahHa42/status/1600074708627562496 https://twitter.com/SarahHa42/status/1600128004113342464
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Dec 6, 2022 15:19
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Young Freud posted:Wouldn't call it puny. Any degradation of their bomber fleet means 1) the loss of a plane that is practically irreplaceable at this point and 2) a weakening of the Russian nuclear triad.
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Dec 6, 2022 15:21
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I dare say there's also the, "Well poo poo, guess we gotta defend these as well" element.
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Dec 6, 2022 15:36
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Bar Ran Dun posted:Yeah you aren’t correct about most of this. Vox Nihili posted:The entire first paragraph is essentially indisputable, but I invite you to make an attempt beyond "nuh uh!" Bar Ran Dun posted:Indisputable! I'm glad to see that you two were able to lead the conversation into a constructive track, but, for posterity, I also have to say that you better skip the part where you make any of the posts quoted herein the next time.
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Dec 6, 2022 15:45
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Payndz posted:Yeah, the Tu-22M ended production almost 30 years ago; same with the Bear. They're still building the Tu-160, but I'd imagine that as a very large, swing-wing supersonic bomber they're insanely expensive, and probably being affected by the sanctions on electronics. Any aircraft they lose at the moment are effectively gone for good. A drone for a strategic bomber seems like an extremely good tradeoff. Sure, but even at a 1:1 conversion rate they need a lot of drones for a meaningful deterrent. Russia has:
If these strikes were indeed carried out using repurposed Tu-141s and assuming Russian reports of downing them aren't completely fictitious, Ukraine would need a hundred or so of them to meaningfully threaten the western portion of the Russian bomber fleet. What I'm saying is, it doesn't have to be the A-word, but to me it seems clear a longer sling might really be what David needs to stop Goliath from smashing power stations and water treatment plants. Not necessarily by destroying nuke bombers on the runway, but by making the Russians busy with exploding ammo and fuel dumps in Crimea and the Donbas.
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Dec 6, 2022 16:08
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Payndz posted:Yeah, the Tu-22M ended production almost 30 years ago; same with the Bear. They're still building the Tu-160, but I'd imagine that as a very large, swing-wing supersonic bomber they're insanely expensive, and probably being affected by the sanctions on electronics. Any aircraft they lose at the moment are effectively gone for good. A drone for a strategic bomber seems like an extremely good tradeoff. Apparently, Russia had about 139 active strategic bombers still before the war: 17 Tu-160s, 1 Tu-160M, 66 Tu-22Ms, and 55 Tu-95s. Having 3 severely damaged, unflyable and likely irreparable means that 2% of their strategic bomber capability is degraded. That's one less ballistic missile being thrown at Ukraine. And fuel stores getting blown up means it will delay any responses, so hopefully these spoilsport missile attacks get become less frequent.
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Dec 6, 2022 16:17
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Ynglaur posted:If the Gepard is as effective as Ukraine indicates, I think it highlights the need to get autocannons and maybe small radars onto the next generation of IFVs which can engage air targets. Ynglaur posted:There are prototype turrets for the JLTV for goodness' sake. It turns out you can save a lot of weight by building them out of friggin' titanium. It's kind of absurd, really...but might be worth having a couple of those in every command post given how ubiquitous and inexpensive drones are. ... And everything other than the bradley replacement gets a self-contained 30mm turret that also has a small mm-wave radar.
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Dec 6, 2022 16:29
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Jasper Tin Neck posted:It's worth underscoring that a 75 kg payload is tiny compared to a conventional cruise missile. A Tomahawk or Kalibr carry a 400-500 kg payload. Yes, but 75kg is enough to make a very large shotgun shell. Shoving a couple hundred steel bearings through a plane fuselage will make it inoperable for a long time.
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Dec 6, 2022 16:29
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Electric Wrigglies posted:How much was the payload on those floating bombs deployed against the US by Japan during WWII? The US is still talking about it 70 years later and they have their own wikipedia article - something this attack seems unlikely to get. Imo the balloon bombs got their notoriety because they were an absolutely "what the gently caress" thing for the American public and were the cause for the only civilian causilities in contentinetal US. Payload was like 40-50 pounds I think.
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Dec 6, 2022 16:42
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Young Freud posted:Apparently, Russia had about 139 active strategic bombers still before the war: 17 Tu-160s, 1 Tu-160M, 66 Tu-22Ms, and 55 Tu-95s. Also bear (no pun intended) in mind that planes in general but old big bombers in particular require a lot of maintenance downtime, so it's unlikely that all of them are in flying condition all of the time. It could be that only half of the fleet is able to fly at any given time when they are actively participating in an air campaign because old machinery needs constant care to stay in air.
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Dec 6, 2022 16:53
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