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Slovakia is joining in on the MiG-29 transfers soon supposedly: https://mil.in.ua/en/news/slovakia-likely-to-hand-over-mig-29-fighters-to-ukraine-in-the-near-future/
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Dec 12, 2022 21:52
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Russia allegedly lost another bridge to Crimea: https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1602385344535617539 EDIT: Well technically a highway route but still.
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Dec 12, 2022 21:59
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Der Kyhe posted:Russia allegedly lost another bridge to Crimea: Just checked the map; if Ukraine can push the front to Tokmak, then cut about 5 more of the bridges on the same river as this bridge, they will have completely cut off the routes through occupied Ukraine between Donbass and Crimea. Not as big of a river as the Dnipro, but a river's still an amazing wall when your BMP3's aren't as amphibious as they were supposed to be. So I'd say the preparations for liberating Melitopol have begun in earnest. Guessing about a month of more logistical strikes and then the actual offensive.
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Dec 12, 2022 22:27
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Less of a round-up, since I'm for once posting this without a long enough delay to skip checking what's been posted. Other round-ups: https://zona.media/chronicle/292 https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-dec-10-11 https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-11 Putin has cancelled his annual winter holiday address, which is a Big loving Deal. https://www.ft.com/content/8ab36f0d-d0f9-4700-b9d9-45387873ecea Bipartisan British MPs say that the government is slacking on sanctions enforcement. https://www.ft.com/content/2d9b41a9-c125-43fd-9037-1d471dcc0304 Ukrainian intelligence claims that Russia is manufacturing around 40 long-range missiles per month. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/12/world/europe/russia-ukraine-missiles.html Ukrainian journalists claim that RuAF has printed its first educational guidelines that are based on this war. https://censor.net/ru/news/3386414/minoborony_rossii_izdalo_metodichku_po_shturmovym_deyistviyam_po_opytu_voyiny_protiv_ukrainy_dokument EU's former US ambassador has been appointed as a sanctions envoy, to deal with circumvention efforts more specifically. https://www.ft.com/content/5c423057-61ee-4e64-ae7c-45e4daacfdc1 Reznikov has confirmed that the soil conditions are not conductive to mechanised warfare. https://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2022/12/11/7380306/ Gitmo-style indefinite detentions against Ukrainian civilians have been okayed by a Russian court. https://t.me/pchikov/5313 cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 22:39 on Dec 12, 2022 |
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Dec 12, 2022 22:36
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cinci zoo sniper posted:
So they kidnap them, then they gulag them. Yep, that checks out. Toss it on the warcrime pile.
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Dec 12, 2022 23:03
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Why is skipping a holiday address a Big loving Deal in Russia?
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Dec 12, 2022 23:13
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Ynglaur posted:Why is skipping a holiday address a Big loving Deal in Russia? It's one of the most important policy speeches of the established yearly cadence, and traditionally a feel-good thing for everyone, and an ability for Putin to be smug all around. Think the State of the Union and Christmas being cancelled, both.
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Dec 12, 2022 23:19
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Ynglaur posted:Why is skipping a holiday address a Big loving Deal in Russia? A good thread on that subject: https://twitter.com/APHClarkson/status/1602268520519188482?s=20&t=-_eieTEpuXgeNij0nr6xTg
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Dec 12, 2022 23:20
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I am growing increasingly interested about who is Strelkov's guardian angel, he is allowed to talk poo poo about Shoigu, implicate accusations about Putin. Now demeans Russia' latest "success" - release of arms trader Viktor But from america. https://twitter.com/ru2ch/status/1602257491705970690?s=20&t=sUHT5K_PVRMAdQESd4v-iA His take on But joining the LDPR - my translation "poo poo joins another poo poo"" E: even Prigozhin with his sledgehammer has to watch his language somewhat. Girkin-Strelkov says whatever the gently caress he wants. Maybe there is some truth to rumors that he is a secret spokesperson for russian army, vents in public their frustrations. Sekenr fucked around with this message at 23:37 on Dec 12, 2022 |
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Dec 12, 2022 23:29
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Hannibal Rex posted:A good thread on that subject: yeah, my reaction was less "oh no!" and more "finally". the last few were mostly
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Dec 13, 2022 00:43
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Reznikov has confirmed that the soil conditions are not conductive to mechanised warfare. https://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2022/12/11/7380306/ Is there a winter campaigning season at all then in the south? It is mid-Dec already and I recall by late March mud season was starting up.
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Dec 13, 2022 01:01
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MikeC posted:Is there a winter campaigning season at all then in the south? It is mid-Dec already and I recall by late March mud season was starting up. That’s the messaging at least, that Soon TM we should expect offensive action from UAF. In theory, 2 months is enough time to get some more ground, as far their land traversal ability is concerned. What this is likely to mean in practice, though, I’m at loss.
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Dec 13, 2022 01:33
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VSOKUL girl posted:yeah, my reaction was less "oh no!" and more "finally". the last few were mostly New Year’s cultural events at the Kremlin have also been cancelled, by the way, and the “the information will follow” about the start of the year message to the parliament. Actually not 100% convinced even the New Year’s address will be there.
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Dec 13, 2022 01:37
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https://twitter.com/jabuttee/status/1602225068469370880?t=IIYP24LelMjuJ8NIA-DEsg&s=19 I haven't watched it yet, but this should be interesting.
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Dec 13, 2022 02:48
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It seems that instead of meber states' individual responsibility, the 18bn cash assistance to Ukraine is going through common borrowing after all. Summarizing, Orban ended conceding, and conceding quite hard – he has lifted vetos not just on this cash package for Ukraine, but also the EU-wide 15% corporate tax rate minimum. And, to boot, the earlier rule of law action plan that the Commission issued them is now integrated into the recovery plan (read: have to do them all before getting the cash). https://www.ft.com/content/b4c40932-163a-485a-8fff-4ad35d0d1a82 Very nice and stable economy you've got going there, Mr. Orban. 
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Dec 13, 2022 03:43
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cinci zoo sniper posted:It seems that instead of meber states' individual responsibility, the 18bn cash assistance to Ukraine is going through common borrowing after all. Summarizing, Orban ended conceding, and conceding quite hard – he has lifted vetos not just on this cash package for Ukraine, but also the EU-wide 15% corporate tax rate minimum. And, to boot, the earlier rule of law action plan that the Commission issued them is now integrated into the recovery plan (read: have to do them all before getting the cash). https://www.ft.com/content/b4c40932-163a-485a-8fff-4ad35d0d1a82 That's wonderful news.  --------------------------- Hannibal Rex posted:https://twitter.com/jabuttee/status/1602225068469370880?t=IIYP24LelMjuJ8NIA-DEsg&s=19 A very enlightening vid and the commander pulls no punches.
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Dec 13, 2022 06:18
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Sekenr posted:I am growing increasingly interested about who is Strelkov's guardian angel, he is allowed to talk poo poo about Shoigu, implicate accusations about Putin. Now demeans Russia' latest "success" - release of arms trader Viktor But from america. It is an open secret that his patron during 2014-15 was orthodox nutjob oligarch Konstantin Malofeev who invested a lot in fanning the flames of war in those years. Investigations like those by Novaya Gazeta have shown that initial Strelkov activities (basically rolling around Donbass with a big gang of likeminded bandits) was encouraged and sponsored by Crimea boss Aksyonov and Malofeev, forcing Russia to take action after they started placing flags (in contrast to the Crimea takeover which was Kremlin plan from the start) His untouchable status (very Stanczyk-like) later was guaranteed by the following: 1) he gave up local warlord ambitions and let less charismatic Kremlin stooges take reins; 2) he had an illustrious and horrible career as a wet work operative for FSB, including kidnapping people in Chechnya. FSB tend to get back on their former colleagues only if they start talking to the enemy (like Litvinenko). I don't think he is affiliated with anyone right now (his recent volunteer misadventure is a tell), it is just that the regime is tolerant in a very American way to their people being court jesters who talk, but don't take action. fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 08:24 on Dec 13, 2022 |
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Dec 13, 2022 08:17
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Didn't expect a Stanczyk reference.
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Dec 13, 2022 09:30
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Speaking of Chechnya, haven't heard from Kadyrov in a while, did they gently caress of when they realized that this was a real war?
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Dec 13, 2022 10:10
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There were videos of Russian soldiers apparently suffering from hypothermia in trenches, but it seems Russia wants to lose mobiks even before they reach the front https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1602409553362096129
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Dec 13, 2022 10:12
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Just Another Lurker posted:That's wonderful news. I did slightly misinterpret the news at 5am, but the broader point remains salient. The due clarification is that they’re expecting 2 wads of cash - 5bn in COVID-19 relief and 6bn in cohesion funding. Covid cash was not being approved at all, up until now, whereas cohesion funding was held up by the rule-of-law inquiry. The settlement reached yesterday is that they’re getting the 5bn approved right away, but their disbursement is tied to implementation of all actionable findings from the inquiry. Until all of them are implemented, 6bn in cohesion cash will remain frozen. This is still very good news for Ukraine - just wanted to clear up the details. fatherboxx posted:1) he gave up local warlord ambitions and let less charismatic Kremlin stooges take reins; Not sure it was quite as peaceful as that between them. 
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Dec 13, 2022 13:11
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I find this interesting so soon after Brittney Grimer's release from Russia - Dutch footballer Quincy Promes is seeking Russian citizenship to avoid extradition to face charges for attempted murder after he stabbed his cousin in the Netherlands in 2020. https://nltimes.nl/2022/12/12/dutch-footballer-suspected-attempted-murder-applies-russian-citizenship An incredibly smart move, probably nothing bad can happen to a black sports star in Russia... especially one with suspected involvement in drug smuggling. (Also domestic violence, but Russian legislation is laughably mild when it comes to terrorizing your family.)
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Dec 13, 2022 13:46
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Hannibal Rex posted:https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1601703175714643970?t=tI5Y27Upme6hGWOmgCwX6g&s=19 This narrative is rather tiring and basically victim blaming. Essentially, any place that falls is accused of being pro-Russian, and all who fail to flee are placed under some degree of suspicion. The same thing is happening in Kherson, where people now face potential life imprisonment for "allowing" Russians to use their buildings, and handing over Russian PoWs (that they, you know, captured rather than aided) once the city fell. Always appear to be more accusations of treason than actual instances. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/03/world/europe/ukraine-kherson-treason.html https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-liberated-kherson-jewish-leaders-are-being-accused-of-collaboration-with-russia
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Dec 13, 2022 14:11
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FishBulbia posted:This narrative is rather tiring and basically victim blaming. Essentially, any place that falls is accused of being pro-Russian, and all who fail to flee are placed under some degree of suspicion. The same thing is happening in Kherson, where people now face potential life imprisonment for "allowing" Russians to use their buildings, and handing over Russian PoWs (that they, you know, captured rather than aided) once the city fell. Always appear to be more accusations of treason than actual instances. quote:It was in that role, according to the New York Times report, that he found himself face to face with a lost and confused Russian pilot, whom his men had taken into captivity. Karamalikov held the prisoner in a utility closet in his home for a night, before ultimately making the decision to return him to the Russian forces unharmed. Sounds like aiding the enemy to me. If you don't want to get involved and just be passive during the occupation, then be passive and do nothing.
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Dec 13, 2022 16:00
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MikeC posted:Sounds like aiding the enemy to me. If you don't want to get involved and just be passive during the occupation, then be passive and do nothing. Life in prison for the nightclub owner unable to murder a PoW they captured. Really? This was all happening while the city was actively falling to the Russians, btw. And what is passivity for the rabbi in this story? Refusing to allow ARMED soldiers to use his institution, or permitting them? Both are active choices. Next we will indict robbery victims as accessories to their own robbery if they didn't get shot. This isn't the pro-Ukraine take you think it is, it's buying into the bullshit that somehow millions of Ukrainians are begging for the "ruskij mir" to come "save" them FishBulbia fucked around with this message at 16:28 on Dec 13, 2022 |
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Dec 13, 2022 16:15
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FishBulbia posted:Life in prison for the nightclub owner unable to murder a PoW they captured. Really? This was all happening while the city was actively falling to the Russians, btw. Relevant link: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/03/world/europe/ukraine-kherson-treason.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article At least the Karamalikov case is highly publicized and that he'll likely get off given the western attention, which is a good thing. The reporting thus far does make it seem like he was put in a no win situation by the occupation. Who knows how many cases without publicity are there though. I think there was another link in the thread earlier about people coming back to homes looted by their neighbors during occupation and the lost of trust after, you could easily see accusations come flying after something like that.
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Dec 13, 2022 16:48
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Saying that the local populace should be actively fighting and resisting and at the same time wondering why occupying soldiers end up killing civilians? The US soldiers didn't go to Iraq with the intent to shoot up or harm civilians but when civilians are weaponized, they will become targets to soldiers trying to stay alive. Sure, it is effective politically because then you will no doubt start being able to collect evidence of the occupying forces killing civilians which is great politically for your cause, but it is pretty ghoulish to sit on the side lines, safe behind a PC and actively support or encourage it.
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Dec 13, 2022 17:12
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Electric Wrigglies posted:Saying that the local populace should be actively fighting and resisting and at the same time wondering why occupying soldiers end up killing civilians? The US soldiers didn't go to Iraq with the intent to shoot up or harm civilians but when civilians are weaponized, they will become targets to soldiers trying to stay alive. I'm not taking a side on the larger issue (especially the valid point about safe posters encouraging others to put themselves in danger), but civilians fighting back making them legitimate targets presupposes there are any legitimate targets for an invader. In the technicalities of laws of war, maybe, but the answer to "what are they supposed to do" is "not be there".
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Dec 13, 2022 18:55
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https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1602721670200020992 Big news for Ukraine's air defences
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Dec 13, 2022 18:55
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 Hells yeah. Assuming we send more than like 3 of them this will cement UA's air defense. I've been worried about their stocks of S-300 missiles.
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Dec 13, 2022 18:57
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Dolash posted:In the technicalities of laws of war, maybe, but the answer to "what are they supposed to do" is "not be there". and both people in those articles stayed to try to help their community. Those laws are meant for the local gauleiters running the little republics, not someone who committed the crime being alive under occupation.
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Dec 13, 2022 19:03
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FishBulbia posted:Life in prison for the nightclub owner unable to murder a PoW they captured. Really? This was all happening while the city was actively falling to the Russians, btw. Nonsensical take, i was talking about Karamalikov and you know it. If they were a doing an anti looting patrol and came across a Russian pilot, they never should have touched him and Karamilikov never should have locked him up when presented to him by his posse. They acted dumb, and probably realized that just turning him loose after locking the pilot up would get the Russians all in their face and decided to save themselves by collaborating. And now they are potentially facing consequences. No one is asking for everyone to be a partisan. But you don't get to dip your toe in the water, decide it is too hot after the fact, and then claim you never got wet at all.
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Dec 13, 2022 19:04
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MikeC posted:Nonsensical take, i was talking about Karamalikov and you know it. If they were a doing an anti looting patrol and came across a Russian pilot, they never should have touched him and Karamilikov never should have locked him up when presented to him by his posse. They acted dumb, and probably realized that just turning him loose after locking the pilot up would get the Russians all in their face and decided to save themselves by collaborating. And now they are potentially facing consequences. Got it. They were collaborating by capturing invaders. That's really a new one. As the article says, there were no more Ukrainian forces in the city (perhaps because of ACTUAL treason), and murdering someone would go against his moral principles and probably get everyone associated with his militia (armed with literal pikes and clubs) murdered in reaction. Really don't see what option he had. FishBulbia fucked around with this message at 19:16 on Dec 13, 2022 |
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Dec 13, 2022 19:06
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Chalks posted:https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1602721670200020992 Oh, so that was probably the solution to Yermak's rebus. (I was guessing it was something about aid to Ukraine's civilian space industry)
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Dec 13, 2022 19:08
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FishBulbia posted:This narrative is rather tiring and basically victim blaming. Essentially, any place that falls is accused of being pro-Russian, and all who fail to flee are placed under some degree of suspicion. Yeah, absolutely. What Ukraine plans to do with people it defines as collaborators, and how it defines them as such, is a problem that doesn't get a whole lot of public attention. I suspect it's also a big part of the reason why a lot of (West-)European politicians are less than enthusiastic about Ukraine recovering control over pre-2022 Russian-held territories, not to mention Crimea. I don’t know what the debate about this inside Ukraine itself is like, but the global default in situations like this would be violent mass expulsions, with plenty of state-approved terror tactics. I haven't seen much writing about this, but there's a decent article by Brian Milakovsky, and he's also been on a few podcasts. He used to work on rebuilding the government-controlled side of Donbas before the invasion. https://archive.ph/ztnfi
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Dec 13, 2022 19:36
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FishBulbia posted:and both people in those articles stayed to try to help their community. Those laws are meant for the local gauleiters running the little republics, not someone who committed the crime being alive under occupation. I mean the invader, not the civilian. The answer to the question of "what is an occupying soldier supposed to do if civilians start fighting them?" should still be "not be occupying", rather than taking the occupation as a given and figuring out who's at fault for instigating violence from there.
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Dec 13, 2022 19:50
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Chalks posted:https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1602721670200020992 The charm offensive has worked, nice. Sad they had to do it at all, but an improvement to the state of affairs in any case. Context: https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/zelenskyys-talks-with-other-leaders-signal-diplomatic-flurry-around-ukraine/
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Dec 13, 2022 20:38
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Does this means Błaszczak's proposal to send German Patriots to Ukraine wasn't so pie in sky after all?
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Dec 13, 2022 20:48
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Rinkles posted:Does this means Błaszczak's proposal to send German Patriots to Ukraine wasn't so pie in sky after all? The German ones are heading to Poland, but maybe bringing it up helped?
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Dec 13, 2022 20:49
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Hannibal Rex posted:https://twitter.com/jabuttee/status/1602225068469370880?t=IIYP24LelMjuJ8NIA-DEsg&s=19 Watched this - it's an exceptional video. Enlightening and brutally honest by someone who is there. Talks openly (as someone from Donbass with parents who are buried there) about the reality of trying to 'liberate' Donbass/Crimea and is very unsure on how to re-integrate 'rotten areas' where they would not be seen as liberators but be going to a place that has been exposed to 8 years of Russian propaganda.
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