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Yeah, "testing the fences" makes some sense to me. Also, drone and battery tech are dramatically improved in recent years, so i fully expect there are some new minmaxed designs that can achieve feats thay would have been impossible 20 years ago. But its still not my default assumption. I dont think the presently ruling communist party nor its chairman is interested in souring relations. As i (fallibly) read it, the ruling chinese authorities have zero motive to tempt fate by sending spy balloons over the US - even with plausible deniability. I expect to learn the mission was driven by scientific curiousity relevant to some capitalist operation, and not a perfidious nation state seeking to dominate the united states of america. E: unless, of course, the us has been sending balloons over China. Then i could see the Chinese leadership insisting on this mission Uglycat fucked around with this message at 05:39 on Feb 7, 2023 |
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Feb 7, 2023 05:24
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I mean really I feel like there are basically only really three possible explanations for the government's response to the balloon: 1. As I stated, the purpose of the drone was - as you put it well - to test the fence in which case a delayed response, or complete lack of a response, is the correct action. 2. The balloon was in fact non-nefarious and a weather balloon or something blown wildly off course. Biden and the Pentagon knew this but eventually caved to pressure from Republicans and the media. And/or waited so long to shoot it down because they hosed up by calling it a spy balloon and wanted plausible deniability about the wreckage or something. 3. As Tucker Carlson said on his show last week, Biden is completely in the pocket of the CCP and is a Manchurian (well, Han, technically) president beholding to President Xi. So yeah. I think I know which two of those are most likely.
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Feb 7, 2023 06:05
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The benefit of a balloon that I'd add to the previous idea of it testing the operational ceiling of US aircraft and anti-aircraft capabilities is providing an atmospheric, cheap, system of communication interception (ground to space). You could also feasibly get somewhat better pictures of ground targets as I've read elsewhere, but communication interception seems nicely plausible. It also may not have been intended to get over the continental US to begin with. It may have been deployed around Alaska and managed to wayward balloon its way out of its position. It may be a science balloon deployed to study the Arctic Circle. Things break, who knows how many other balloons there are, maybe it was meant for a lower altitude and someone misclicked a setting and it leapt into the wrong wind stream. Maybe it was studying the Arctic Circle and the sudden shift when the POLAR VORTEX happened snagged it and pulled it far south to the US (as it pulled the cold mass of air). The Chinese government should not be trusted on, "it's a science balloon" while also they'd never come clean that someone hosed up, science or military mission. Given all the other methods of spying the Chinese and US governments do on each other, we still return to, "who the gently caress cares about a dumbass balloon?"
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Feb 7, 2023 06:13
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I think it was a spy balloon, but in a fun, light-hearted kind of way. Like a kid sneaking a peak at their Christmas gifts.
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Feb 7, 2023 06:26
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VitalSigns posted:We cannot afford a balloon gap! Don't worry there isn't one, the US has these comedy boys https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tethered_Aerostat_Radar_System  that look like they have a ballsack.
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Feb 7, 2023 11:29
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Panfilo posted:https://twitter.com/TRHLofficial/status/1622453614009630722?t=RKIwX8XfU58uyM1nW-Fhtw&s=19 And if it had been covered, it would be "fake news"
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Feb 7, 2023 12:07
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This entire thing is dumb Cold War 2 posturing just like the first Cold War and the lead-up to the War on Terror. In hindsight, the Soviet Union didn't pose much of a threat to the US, and pretty much just supported communism where it could while strengthening defenses in response to repeated direct threats by the US. In hindsight, Sadam Hussein didn't pose any real threat to the US that required the measures that were taken. You could maybe make the case Afghanistan was more direct because of Osama bin Laden, but it was real clear real early that he just wasn't there. Now that the Afghanistan gravy train has come to an end and there haven't really been any recent direct attacks against the US directly, the hawks are entering their Cold War phase. They enjoy this probably more than they like active war. They pretend danger lurks just around every corner, and the only remedy is continued military sprawl. The money flows, and nothing needs to work or be used. The military contractors also tried that snake oil bullshit during the War on Terror, but they got made fun of. Nobody has come up with any good reason why China would send a balloon for any specific information. They don't need to "test the fences." That's not a thing. The state of the US ability to intercept nuclear missiles is pretty well known. It's bad. It can be overwhelmed by half a dozen missiles sent at the same time. If a country was hellbent on a nuclear attack on the US then it would have already happened. Also, it's not like the high value targets in the US are a mystery. Do they need balloons to know Langley is a priority? Every piece of fear around this dumb balloon starts from the premise first that this must be a spy thing, and then deviates more and more from the reality we live in to justify that premise. This is also what happened during the lead up to the War on Terror. It was decided Iraq was somehow a threat, and more and more insane theories were concocted to justify that premise until the invasion happened.
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Feb 7, 2023 12:12
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Uglycat posted:Ive only done a few minutes googling, but lol
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Feb 7, 2023 13:31
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Uglycat posted:It seems perfectly credible to me that nation-states may employ balloons for certain niche purposes, but by and large the appeal of balloons is the relative affordability of them. Ive only done a few minutes googling, but i think we could assemble parts, build, and launch a balloon that stands a good chance of circumnavigating the globe for tens of thousads of dollars. the US uses a large fleet of spy satellites and electronic signals surveillance. China uses balloons. The Soviets used a pencil.
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Feb 7, 2023 14:53
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RoboChrist 9000 posted:I'm no expert but it seems to me like the primary advantage a balloon would have over a satellite as a spying tool would be to gauge both how long it takes your enemy to notice their airspace has been violated, and how high an altitude their jets are able to engage a target. In which case "wait more or less as long as possible before engaging, if engaging at all" is absolutely the correct move because that's the only information that silly thing can collect that isn't already being collected by satellites. quote:"Currently, we assess that this balloon has limited additive value from an intelligence collective collection perspective," the official said. "But we are taking steps, nevertheless, to protect against foreign intelligence collection of sensitive information." HelloSailorSign posted:The benefit of a balloon that I'd add to the previous idea of it testing the operational ceiling of US aircraft and anti-aircraft capabilities is providing an atmospheric, cheap, system of communication interception (ground to space). You could also feasibly get somewhat better pictures of ground targets as I've read elsewhere, but communication interception seems nicely plausible. Y'all are engaging in Clancy chat about the re-issuance of 19th century intelligence gathering techniques.
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Feb 7, 2023 15:30
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Doesn't really matter what the DoD says. Americans are deeply propagandized with war paranoia and racial terror of Asia. If the TV says to be frightened of a Chinese balloon they're gonna be.
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Feb 7, 2023 15:36
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Tesseraction posted:Don't worry there isn't one, the US has these comedy boys https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tethered_Aerostat_Radar_System
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Feb 7, 2023 15:37
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Time to see what Right Wing Media is up in arms about https://twitter.com/JasonSCampbell/status/1621548585568407553?s=20&t=iGQw4XFe2eJkNL1V_VoGsQ https://twitter.com/jbouie/status/1622981246388256770?s=20&t=26QOHBrkFwYh0NzuBbQAFQ Noted Gay Republican BrokebackUSA  Also https://twitter.com/JoeMyGod/status/1622985654199287810?s=20&t=dIECTKb1qR82Xj217bG73g quote:
https://twitter.com/davenewworld_2/status/1622249749754646529?s=20&t=R_YGS0VDGLzp5UOBZQlgNQ
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Feb 7, 2023 16:59
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https://twitter.com/RightWingWatch/status/1622690404083634207?s=20 Also the earthquake in turkey happened because of this performance according to Pete. I didn't realize the gays and the trans and other people of malicious ill intent had developed plate tectonic displacement technology. That's incredibly troubling.
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Feb 7, 2023 17:39
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Nelson Mandingo posted:
God's wrath has piss poor aim
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Feb 7, 2023 17:58
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Nelson Mandingo posted:https://twitter.com/RightWingWatch/status/1622690404083634207?s=20 Nah, god is super righteously pissed about
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Feb 7, 2023 18:01
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Extremely funny that all these Facts Over Feelings logic guys are getting red-faced and screaming arguing with a language bot that has no grasp of logic or ethics and no capability to actually reason about its training data. "Okay let's say, let's say, we were having this argument in an alternate reality where I am right, okay, an alternate reality where I am right and you are wrong. Then, logically and morally and philosophically, you would have to admit, that I am right. Right?" No "Raaaaarrghhh!"
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Feb 7, 2023 18:19
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What if thermonuclear bombs were set to go off all over the surface of the earth killing billions, and the only way to disarm the detonator is to provide a teen with gender-affirming care
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Feb 7, 2023 18:26
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VitalSigns posted:What if thermonuclear bombs were set to go off all over the surface of the earth killing billions, and the only way to disarm the detonator is to provide a teen with gender-affirming care Lol i love this
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Feb 7, 2023 18:32
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May need to start keeping an eye on this thread more to get ahead of the crazy poo poo my one roommate is going to be talking about ahead of time and how to best rebutt and deflect it. The latest is this latest anti vaxx conspiracy thing.
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Feb 7, 2023 18:53
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VitalSigns posted:What if thermonuclear bombs were set to go off all over the surface of the earth killing billions, and the only way to disarm the detonator is to provide a teen with gender-affirming care Concerning
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Feb 7, 2023 18:56
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VitalSigns posted:What if thermonuclear bombs were set to go off all over the surface of the earth killing billions, and the only way to disarm the detonator is to provide a teen with gender-affirming care I'm imagining a woke Dr. Evil character and it is hilarious
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Feb 7, 2023 19:34
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"One... MILLION dollars (for charity)"
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Feb 7, 2023 20:04
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Just had a thought: How long until anglophone conservatives try to force grammatical genders into the English language? It feels like a logical next step for them. Since they believe that Platonic Forms of masculine and feminine are real then surely they must reform language so that it’s clear whether any given inanimate object is a boy or a girl.
duck.exe fucked around with this message at 20:18 on Feb 7, 2023 |
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Feb 7, 2023 20:14
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duck.exe posted:Just had a thought: How long until anglophone conservatives try to force grammatical genders into the English language? It feels like a logical next step for them. THE Grand Canyon? Silly libs, it's HE Grand Canyon now!
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Feb 7, 2023 20:16
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duck.exe posted:Just had a thought: How long until anglophone conservatives try to force grammatical genders into the English language? It feels like a logical next step for them. Problem is that it would require changing a thing that they've done their whole lives, so that's fairly unlikely to get a lot of support. Now, they'll happily gin up bullshit about liberals wanting to add gender to language only to neuter and remove it, but that's already an ongoing thing with people stating their pronouns (which is hilarious, because it's actually really, really useful for sending e-mails in a large organization because I don't know the naming convention for names from a lot of different nationalities).
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Feb 7, 2023 20:18
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VitalSigns posted:What if thermonuclear bombs were set to go off all over the surface of the earth killing billions, and the only way to disarm the detonator is to provide a teen with gender-affirming care Matt Walsh would first want to inspect the teenager's genitals to confirm how fertile and fuckable they were before he made his decision on the fate of the human race.
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Feb 7, 2023 20:35
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duck.exe posted:Just had a thought: How long until anglophone conservatives try to force grammatical genders into the English language? It feels like a logical next step for them. Since they believe that Platonic Forms of masculine and feminine are real then surely they must reform language so that it’s clear whether any given inanimate object is a boy or a girl. pre:Strong Nouns Masculine Neuter Feminine Case Sing. Plural Singular Plural Sing. Plural Nominative stān stān-as sċip / þing sċip-u / þing ġief-u / sorg ġief-a / sorg-a, -e Accusative stān stān-as sċip / þing sċip-u / þing ġief-e / sorg-e ġief-a / sorg-a, -e Genitive stān-es stān-a sċip-es/þing-es sċip-a / þing-a ġief-e / sorg-e ġief-a / sorg-a Dative stān-e stān-um sċip-e/þing-e sċip-um/þing-um ġief-e / sorg-e ġief-um / sorg-um
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Feb 7, 2023 22:02
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duck.exe posted:Just had a thought: How long until anglophone conservatives try to force grammatical genders into the English language? It feels like a logical next step for them. Since they believe that Platonic Forms of masculine and feminine are real then surely they must reform language so that it’s clear whether any given inanimate object is a boy or a girl. It's Adam and Eve, not They and Theeeve
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Feb 7, 2023 22:18
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Uglycat posted:I myself doubt it was launched by the chinese government. Has the Chinese government denied it was their balloon? I thought they made comments about the balloon essentially admitting ownership? “On Friday, China finally acknowledged the balloon was its property, saying that it was a civilian airship used for meteorological research, which deviated from its route because of bad weather.” I took this to mean civilian as in non-military not civilian as in non-governmental otherwise they would have said the balloon belongs to so and so.
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Feb 7, 2023 23:31
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VitalSigns posted:What if thermonuclear bombs were set to go off all over the surface of the earth killing billions, and the only way to disarm the detonator is to provide a teen with gender-affirming care Those Who Hang Out in Omelas.
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Feb 8, 2023 00:34
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Kale posted:May need to start keeping an eye on this thread more to get ahead of the crazy poo poo my one roommate is going to be talking about ahead of time and how to best rebutt and deflect it. The latest is this latest anti vaxx conspiracy thing. Which anti-vaxx thing, there are many threads.
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Feb 8, 2023 00:43
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I don't know what you guys are on about but I heard something about a balloon or some poo poo. It sounds pretty serious
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Feb 8, 2023 01:23
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BiggerBoat posted:I don't know what you guys are on about but I heard something about a balloon or some poo poo. it is pretty serious, the Chinese floated a balloon that says "BIG BUTT BIDEN" over most of the continental US
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Feb 8, 2023 02:15
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Tesseraction posted:Don't worry there isn't one, the US has these comedy boys https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tethered_Aerostat_Radar_System Huh, I drove past one of these on the way to Marfa once. I was more bewildered and disturbed by the entire concept, but I guess I didn't notice the comical nutsack attached to it.
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Feb 8, 2023 02:24
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litany of gulps posted:Huh, I drove past one of these on the way to Marfa once. I was more bewildered and disturbed by the entire concept, but I guess I didn't notice the comical nutsack attached to it. Oh, the humanity
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Feb 8, 2023 13:14
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Kale posted:how to best rebutt and deflect it. The answer is a sock full of gravel.
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Feb 8, 2023 18:02
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I was wondering why noted shithead James O'Keefe was trending, and apparently this is why https://twitter.com/willsommer/status/1623506139454242820?s=20&t=oaEYJWutELLZhlM0T-3IGg
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Feb 9, 2023 05:47
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FlamingLiberal posted:I was wondering why noted shithead James O'Keefe was trending, and apparently this is why At this point I wouldn't be surprised if he somehow stole 40 cakes
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Feb 9, 2023 06:32
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I'm staring at a tweet that contains the words James O'Keefe and "musical theater dreams" in the same sentence.
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