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Scrungus posted:Uh huh. Quick question, what was the value of VWALX 10 years ago? Oh. Same as it is right now? Interesting. ?  thanks for the bad take
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Mar 10, 2023 18:12
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Carlson is the heir of the Swanson frozen dinner fortune.
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Mar 10, 2023 18:43
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pseudanonymous posted:Carlson is the heir of the Swanson frozen dinner fortune. Swanson is in fact his middle name
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Mar 10, 2023 18:57
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i'm kind of scratching my head over so many depositers at svb being way over the fdic limits. i've only ever worked in small business and government roles, is it really that common for corporations to be sitting on huge piles of actual cash at one institution? i thought instruments like commercial paper existed to keep exactly that from happening
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Mar 10, 2023 19:15
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SKULL.GIF posted:SVB has been closed by the FDIC. some of it may be spreading, First Republic Bank, PacWest Bancorp, Western Alliance Bancorp and Signature Bank trades were all halted.
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Mar 10, 2023 19:18
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On the one hand, I have a lot of money at First Republic bank. But on the other, I also owe them a great deal of money, so it's impossible to say if this is good or bad
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Mar 10, 2023 20:05
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pretty sure the feds keep collecting on the loans they take over
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Mar 10, 2023 20:21
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:i'm kind of scratching my head over so many depositers at svb being way over the fdic limits. i've only ever worked in small business and government roles, is it really that common for corporations to be sitting on huge piles of actual cash at one institution? i thought instruments like commercial paper existed to keep exactly that from happening It's a big VC bank. When you're dealing with many millions of dollars it's not particularly practicable to have it allotted out in tranches of $250,000 across dozens of different banks. Of course it's also just good sense to not have ALL of your eggs in one basket, but this was a huge bank. People trusted it implicitly. It's incredible how badly they managed to gently caress things up, they had a huge pile of assets and utterly mismanaged them.
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Mar 10, 2023 20:39
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drk posted:As it turns out, banking high risk companies dependent on cheap capital combined with holding significant assets in long term treasuries does poorly in a rising rates environment. Fun fact: my best friend is a finance director for a vineyard that, according to him, has "80ish%" of our cash in SVB and FRC. We've been texting all morning and needless to say, it's been, as he calls it, a "weird" day. Vox Nihili posted:Of course it's also just good sense to not have ALL of your eggs in one basket, but this was a huge bank. People trusted it implicitly. It's incredible how badly they managed to gently caress things up, they had a huge pile of assets and utterly mismanaged them. This exactly The Ackman quote is painfully true. His company has all their operating cash essentially frozen. If JPow wants a recession, he's got it. TheKevman fucked around with this message at 20:53 on Mar 10, 2023 |
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Mar 10, 2023 20:46
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SKULL.GIF posted:SVB has been closed by the FDIC. Does this mean the company is going to be liquidated? Is this something a bank can come back from or is it pretty much over for it?
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Mar 10, 2023 20:51
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gay picnic defence posted:Does this mean the company is going to be liquidated? Is this something a bank can come back from or is it pretty much over for it? The FDIC does this all the time, just usually it's tiny community banks. There were literally hundreds back in 2008 crisis days. The bank is done, FDIC will restore access to everyone's insured money by Monday and then as they sell off the bank's assets and wind it down they'll pay out the uninsured depositors as much as possible. Eventually everything will be done and it'll close. There are scenarios where everyone is made whole, e.g. the bank didn't have the cash to cover its depositors but once all its buildings and other assets are sold maybe that's enough. So it remains to be seen whether a bunch of depositors get hosed. Companies shouldn't rely on FDIC alone to insure their cash deposits. There are options like CDARS which lets you buy CDs across a bunch of banks so that your total CD balance is insured, MaxSafe which is just a higher insurance thing, and DIF-member banks offer a higher amount of desposit insurance. Plus like Ghostofjohnmuir said, "commercial paper" which is a collection of different commonly-used short-term debt instruments that lets you borrow cash for a month or two or three, for your immediate cashflow needs while keeping your company's "cash" in noncash investments rather than as under/uninsured cash deposits that you can buy and sell every few months to square up.
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Mar 10, 2023 21:09
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there's some real banger tweets from even just a few days ago on all this mess https://twitter.com/anachartanalyst/status/1631746856970534912?s=20 goldman sachs, ALWAYS loving with you via sell-side https://twitter.com/MrLobble/status/1632058118656892928?s=20 can't wait to see this guy next year https://twitter.com/BearForce_Won/status/1633216874984140805?s=20 answer: insolvent https://twitter.com/planert41/status/1633250971232129025?s=20 someone always knows https://twitter.com/Tickeron/status/1632192843245826049?s=20 answer: frc which has also been killed this week
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Mar 10, 2023 21:26
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Leperflesh posted:The FDIC does this all the time, just usually it's tiny community banks. There were literally hundreds back in 2008 crisis days. The bank is done, FDIC will restore access to everyone's insured money by Monday and then as they sell off the bank's assets and wind it down they'll pay out the uninsured depositors as much as possible. Eventually everything will be done and it'll close. There are scenarios where everyone is made whole, e.g. the bank didn't have the cash to cover its depositors but once all its buildings and other assets are sold maybe that's enough. So it remains to be seen whether a bunch of depositors get hosed. Makes sense. So the entire entity is hosed (along with shareholders) or is it just a particular division and the rest might limp on for a while? Seems like it’s gone from “nothing to see here” to firesale in less than 48 hours.
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Mar 10, 2023 21:29
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pmchem posted:https://twitter.com/MrLobble/status/1632058118656892928?s=20 update: https://twitter.com/MrLobble/status/1634211275986141184?s=20
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Mar 10, 2023 21:30
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lol jesus that guy is having a bad week. his twitter bio: "Scott @MrLobble NBA enthusiast. Diehard Rockets fan. Dbacks fan since 2017. Finance guy." https://twitter.com/MrLobble/status/1634208561365483522?s=20 https://twitter.com/MrLobble/status/1634282402678820867?s=20 I hope he has a better weekend
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Mar 10, 2023 21:34
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gay picnic defence posted:Makes sense. So the entire entity is hosed (along with shareholders) or is it just a particular division and the rest might limp on for a while? Seems like it’s gone from “nothing to see here” to firesale in less than 48 hours. I mean I think SVB is a bank, so I don't know what divisions it might have but my read of what we've seen posted is that Silicon Valley Bank is bust. For fairly obvious reasons the FDIC does not make public announcements that it's planning on taking over some bank next week or next month, so while there are usually signs that a bank is in big trouble, it's not surprising that some folks had their fingers in their ears especially given the people running the bank are going to be trying to keep things going and the only way you do that as a bank is say things that maintain confidence in you as a bank. Like please do not cash out and withdraw all your deposits, we need those, we are serious really we're doing OK, we have some short-term challenges but we're fine, kindly give us more of your money k thanks.
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Mar 10, 2023 21:49
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just based on price action, FRC, WAL, PACW and SCHW have some serious issues to look at this weekend. I read some of schwab's 10-K and it didn't look alarming but I'm not a pro financial firm analyst. SCHW would seem to have a diversified client base and they were at 7% CET vs 4% regulatory requirement so no forced sale needed, but like many other banks they have unrealized losses on Treasurys and MBS
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Mar 10, 2023 21:56
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Silicon Valley Bank no longer exists. As of 11:52 AM, their assets are now controlled by the new national bank the FDIC created for receivership. Amounts covered by FDIC insurance will become available Monday. Many small companies are looking at the possibility of not making payroll on Wednesday. The holding company shell may still theoretically exist.
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Mar 10, 2023 21:58
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this guy called SIVB in Jan: https://twitter.com/RagingVentures/status/1615826088038473733?s=20
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Mar 10, 2023 22:13
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Heres the CEO of Y Combinator https://twitter.com/garrytan/status/1634286688922132481
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Mar 10, 2023 22:19
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pmchem posted:this guy called SIVB in Jan: https://twitter.com/RagingVentures/status/1615826088038473733?s=20 The New Stock Picking and Trading Thread: Caveat Emptor! (Disclosure: I am short)
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Mar 10, 2023 22:30
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Vox Nihili posted:Heres the CEO of Y Combinator Yeah this is not good for startups If you are CEO of a small company and held your seed/series A money at SVIB a lot of your employees are going to walk out the door either on the 15th or end of the quarter when their paychecks don't clear or just don't get paid at all A lot of companies were about to do their Q2 hiring starting April 1 A lot of offices will miss their April 1 rent When we bought our house there was a disclaimer we had to sign that if the bank failed before the money was transferred to the seller, only the amount under $250k wood be transferred. The house was at least double 250k. I don't think SVIB did mortgages but just as an example this is going to gently caress up all sorts of poo poo for at least 90 days
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Mar 10, 2023 22:34
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Is any contagion from this likely to be significant? Also, is this something that is going to be seriously impacting other banks to the extent there's some more high profile collapses (I know a lot of them are taking hits from bond prices falling) or was SIVB particularly vulnerable due to it's exposure to VC?
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Mar 10, 2023 22:49
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My wild rear end guess is that this is specific to SVIB as they pretty much exclusively catered to startups. All the startups I worked for used SVIB in some aspect.
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Mar 10, 2023 22:55
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Vox Nihili posted:Heres the CEO of Y Combinator The sound of a million Juiceros yet to be born, crying out in anguish
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Mar 10, 2023 23:15
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Vox Nihili posted:Heres the CEO of Y Combinator Yes, we better again bail out some of the richest most privileged people in the country, who took stupid risks.
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Mar 10, 2023 23:47
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how many times must people learn this lesson, strictly regulate banks! https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1634330899171901440 at least one more time
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Mar 11, 2023 01:00
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Tokyo Sex Whale posted:The sound of a million Juiceros yet to be born, crying out in anguish RIP my smalt preorder
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Mar 11, 2023 01:22
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Hadlock posted:Looks like I may have caught the morning trading knife at $5.58 SOFI curious to see if FDIC news moves it lower Thanks for the heads-up SoFi earlier today. I am up 28% on my 4/21 6 call I bought. If only I had bought more than one… lol
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Mar 11, 2023 01:25
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WTF Like did they just leave $500 million in a checking account? Like if you need that much cash on hand shouldn't it be sweeping in and out of a MMF or something? Why do they even need that much cash?
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Mar 11, 2023 01:54
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Vox Nihili posted:Heres the CEO of Y Combinator
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Mar 11, 2023 02:02
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gay picnic defence posted:Is any contagion from this likely to be significant? Yes, market is now forecasting bigger rate hikes. Like 1% higher. Expect this to be vicious for the next quarter, between fed rate discussion, congress fights and generally max bearishness.
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Mar 11, 2023 02:02
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Tokyo Sex Whale posted:WTF Look bro we don’t do things like our fathers we are smarter
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Mar 11, 2023 02:10
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Tokyo Sex Whale posted:WTF yeah, i really don't get it per my earlier post. my naive assumption was that most working capital would be in ultra short duration treasuries, commercial paper, etc. it just feels wild that companies are sitting on hundreds of millions in straight up cash
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Mar 11, 2023 02:12
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Elephanthead posted:Look bro we don’t do things like our fathers we are smarter Working theory: since everybody knows the FDIC acts at 7 pm, Roku moved all their money into checking and the CEO took an early lunch and got stuck in the business banking line waiting for a cashier's check to run across the street to the BOA ATM.
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Mar 11, 2023 02:55
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Tokyo Sex Whale posted:Working theory: since everybody knows the FDIC acts at 7 pm, Roku moved all their money into checking and the CEO took an early lunch and got stuck in the business banking line waiting for a cashier's check to run across the street to the BOA ATM. Hi I'd like to make a $496 million withdrawal, you guys have the cash on hand right?
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Mar 11, 2023 03:00
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Tokyo Sex Whale posted:WTF SVB had a wide variety of financial products, it's likely that most of it was in a sweep account or the like rather than a standard deposit. That money isn't all gone but untangling it all could take ages.
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Mar 11, 2023 03:12
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These tweets are not acknowledging that uninsured depositors will get at least some of their money back. Right? SVB went under but it did not have zero dollars in assets left?
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Mar 11, 2023 03:12
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Hate to see it. Roku is actually a decent company that puts out a working product, that's a hell of a lot better than most Silicon Valley companies
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Mar 11, 2023 03:14
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Leperflesh posted:These tweets are not acknowledging that uninsured depositors will get at least some of their money back. Right? SVB went under but it did not have zero dollars in assets left? They have a ton of assets for an insolvent bank. Depositors may end up getting back as much as 100c on the dollar, but depending on the circumstances it could take 6-12 months before they get there (absent another bank buying up the ruins) and those respective small business depositors could be finished as a going concern as early as Monday without access to the funds.
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Mar 11, 2023 03:14
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