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most of that decline was young men
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Mar 23, 2023 17:35
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Leperflesh posted:Regardless, in addition to covid deaths there's a far larger number of people who have or had long-term health effects from lingering covid that didn't die and many of them have had to leave the workforce. This does not get much press. Employment level is at an all time high: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CE16OV Obviously population growth is the largest long term driver of this, but there are clearly *more* people working now than pre-pandemic.
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Mar 23, 2023 17:40
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yeah it's a country of 332 million people, a million dead and let's pull a number from the rear end and say only half of them were workers and that's not a huge number, if you presume another similar sized or even double or triple size of people who are now part-time workers or had to go on disability that's still not a huge percentage. But while people were out of the workforce we fell behind in production so it kind of makes sense that we'd need a year or two or three of overproduction to fill in the gap in demand, which goes back to what folks have been saying about like the home construction shortfall etc. Like the reality is I don't think anyone has or could directly measure the effect of covid the disease itself on the workforce because of all the confounding factors like the shutdowns and government & corporate response to the pandemic, the international trade situation, and so forth. The point though is that people being sick and leaving the workforce does not mean there's suddenly a surplus of workers and therefore rising unemployment. We had shutdowns and corporate failures and that spiked unemployment in april of 2020, but unemployment returned to prepandemic levels by april 2022.
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Mar 23, 2023 17:50
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The official death statistics for Covid are a pretty serious undercount everywhere, even in the US and other countries with good death reporting systems. And the people who died aren't spread uniformly across industries or positions: they're much more likely to be service providers than professionals, for instance. That's not even getting into disabilities, which is something where we don't have good data at all.
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Mar 23, 2023 18:43
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ultrafilter posted:The official death statistics for Covid are a pretty serious undercount everywhere, Yeah googling "excess deaths 2022" (arguably the only good way to gauge this, since all other communicable disease fell off a cliff 20-21 and arguably 22) yields all sorts of wild numbers European Commission released a report not long ago, TL;DR edition Dec 2020 deaths vs Dec 2019... +30% Dec 2021 vs Dec 2019 ...+24% Dec 2022 vs Dec 2019... +19% https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/w/DDN-20230217-1 "covid is over"  I haven't looked at H1B/E6/other highly qualified immigrant immigration statistics recently but I know Trump garrotted H1B a couple years ago + we dug a big skilled immigrant labor hole in 2020-21 and probably still way behind where we should have been Edit: map; percentage difference between the cumulative number of deaths since 1 January 2020 and the cumulative projected deaths for the same period based on previous years  https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-excess-mortality-p-scores-projected-baseline Hadlock fucked around with this message at 19:10 on Mar 23, 2023 |
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Mar 23, 2023 19:03
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ultrafilter posted:That's not even getting into disabilities, which is something where we don't have good data at all. https://archive.is/Nxs4W Of course since this article came out, I've seen a surge in "this is awesome, disabled people are finally being allowed into the workplace in increasing numbers!!!!" Uhh guys, I kinda don't think these are people who were disabled before and were suddenly able to find a jobby job.... I think these are people who were already employed, are now hosed up, and their job hasn't figured out how to shitcan them yet. edit - Here's the spin - https://archive.is/AeBuz "The Disabled Can Help Ease the Shortage of Workers" Baddog fucked around with this message at 20:30 on Mar 23, 2023 |
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Mar 23, 2023 20:27
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The other "excess deaths" thing is there's an insane spiking of deaths related to all the drugs being tainted and toxic these days, which is killing all sorts of people because it's no longer really possible to determine what is a safe dosage of anything. Literally 6 people a day are dying in British Columbia at this point due to toxic drugs. I wouldn't be surprised if numbers were similar in other places in the USA where drug use is common.
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Mar 23, 2023 20:41
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Deaths due to the opioid epidemic have become so common here it doesn't even make the news. It's just the new normal.
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Mar 23, 2023 21:26
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I don't want to seem callous about that since it's obviously tragic, but it's a rounding error when talking about actual excess mortality and total deaths impacting the labor force. edit: this is in regard to tainted drugs, not the overall opioid crisis which has very real impacts on the labor force
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Mar 23, 2023 21:27
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I think all of the excess mortality discussion doesn't actually explain the inflation story, though. As the charts previously posted show, we have an all-time high number of working age adults in the US and labor force participation is nearly as high as it was pre-pandemic. Also, increased demand has definitely been a factor in this current wave of inflation, and there is no way that a rise in excess deaths could be responsible for that (since, you know, dead people aren't know for buying things).
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Mar 23, 2023 21:50
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Yeah I think the largest forces pushing inflation are more indirectly from pandemic fallout, like the massive spike in the cost of overseas shipping that took place; and also the ukraine war spiking oil prices, as two examples. Inflation hasn't been even across all the goods tracked. https://www.statista.com/statistics/216055/annual-percentage-of-change-in-the-us-cpi-u-by-expenditure-category/ Energy (electricity + oil) and housing are three of the four biggest spiking numbers right now with food being the third. Food is arguable but energy and housing spikes aren't due to people dying of covid. They're due to a systemic housing shortage that was already severe before the pandemic shut down construction for a year+ and is still suffering from supply shortages, and global disruption of oil & gas. Food prices are sensitive to energy, but I wonder if a shortage of immigrant labor is also contributing. To circle back to the point: probably nothing the Fed can do about oil prices, and making borrowing more expensive might have a negative impact on housing construction but there's like a year lag between housing starts and units becoming available so we don't really know yet I bet.
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Mar 23, 2023 22:06
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Hadlock posted:Yeah googling "excess deaths 2022" (arguably the only good way to gauge this, since all other communicable disease fell off a cliff 20-21 and arguably 22) yields all sorts of wild numbers Huh, good job Greenland?
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Mar 24, 2023 00:20
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Greenland has an apocalyptic suicide rate, so my guess is that it dipped a bit that year due to ???
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Mar 24, 2023 01:37
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Volmarias posted:Huh, good job Greenland? Greenland has closed its ports.
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Mar 24, 2023 01:39
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:edit: this is in regard to tainted drugs, not the overall opioid crisis which has very real impacts on the labor force  It's one and the same really. Opiod users are buying something that they think is Fentanyl and it's lol random poo poo + a bit of Fentanyl and they OD and die because it's impossible to know what a safe dose of this chaos concoction is.
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Mar 24, 2023 02:18
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Femtosecond posted:
It is not, though. Lots of opioid users are dying from run-of-the-mill overdoses or other issues associated with drug use. Plus there's all the lost economic output from people addicted to opioids. Get rid of tainted drugs and the opioid crisis still has significant effects on the labor force.
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Mar 24, 2023 02:29
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Some opioid overdoses are coming from a mix of opioid painkillers, barbiturates and alcohol that are taken in doses that would be safe individually. I don't have good data on how common that is, but it's definitely an issue.
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Mar 24, 2023 03:59
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:It is not, though. Lots of opioid users are dying from run-of-the-mill overdoses or other issues associated with drug use. Plus there's all the lost economic output from people addicted to opioids. Get rid of tainted drugs and the opioid crisis still has significant effects on the labor force. I guess. My part of the world has always had issues with heroin use and opiate use, but the mass deaths only really started to accelerate once things pivoted away from heroin and toward fentanyl that was cut with who knows what, meaning that the opiate issue transitioned into a toxic drug issue. At least in British Columbia I don't think the "opiate issue" really exists anymore because it's not possible to get pure opiates any more. All street drugs are toxic street drugs. Can't even find heroin anymore. https://www.vice.com/en/article/5dgzq8/fentanyl-has-overtaken-heroin-market But I think I know what you're getting at that beyond the toxic drugs that are killing people, there are related issues around drug addiction that are taking people out of the work force. Here's the state of things in BC. Not Good! 
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Mar 24, 2023 20:20
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The number of people who got hooked on opiates through over-prescription is massive in the US and that's largely a post-2000 phenomenon. The US is still "only" hitting like 80k annual deaths through opioid overdose, which is an order of magnitude smaller than COVID related deaths. And for any arguments you can make for COVID victims largely being out of the labor force, you can probably make similar ones for OD victims, too. Femtosecond posted:But I think I know what you're getting at that beyond the toxic drugs that are killing people, there are related issues around drug addiction that are taking people out of the work force. Yeah, for sure. Issues around drug use and the labor force are very much larger than a (relatively) small number of people (who are in many cases out of the labor force or marginally involved) dying.
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Mar 24, 2023 20:45
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Democratic Pirate posted:Greenland has closed its ports. We reached out to King Madagascar, but could not receive a response as Madagascar has eliminated all outside contact.
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Mar 24, 2023 20:50
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Volmarias posted:We reached out to King Madagascar, but could not receive a response as Madagascar has eliminated all outside contact. In retrospect, it's kind of funny that a flash game about spreading your pandemic across the world was possibly more difficult than in reality because of a built-in assumption that somebody somewhere would give a poo poo in real life.
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Mar 24, 2023 22:12
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Sundae posted:In retrospect, it's kind of funny that a flash game about spreading your pandemic across the world was possibly more difficult than in reality because of a built-in assumption that somebody somewhere would give a poo poo in real life. If it had happened several years earlier, it's very possible it would have been dramatically better handled. Instead, we got the march of the dipshit authoritarians, who had just gutted a program to handle exactly this, and viewed the pandemic as a PR problem. Contagion was a good example of what would have happened if the CDC wasn't dealing with trump, and the Alex Jones character wasn't actually the loving president.
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Mar 24, 2023 22:18
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Goldman predicting a 5-20% drop in home prices over the next 12 months https://fortune.com/2023/03/24/these-global-housing-markets-further-slide-goldman-sachs-home-price-correction/ To the complete surprise of nobody, Goldman posted:“Housing market tightness—as measured by the scant supply of homes available for sale—is having a large influence in many markets and should limit the downside of house prices to some extent,” wrote Goldman researchers. The house we're in contact on, listed in June 2022 for 15% above the current asking/closing price, and maybe could have gone lower if we were more aggressive Hadlock fucked around with this message at 09:26 on Mar 25, 2023 |
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Mar 25, 2023 09:22
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What is that X axis? Months since decline began? So they took the markets and slide them at the turnaround point so they all 'start' at the same time so try and show the commonality of the trend? That would explain why some are shorter, because the decline started in different places at different times.
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Mar 25, 2023 09:38
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Magnetic North posted:What is that X axis? Months since decline began? So they took the markets and slide them at the turnaround point so they all 'start' at the same time so try and show the commonality of the trend? That would explain why some are shorter, because the decline started in different places at different times. That appears to be what they did, yes
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Mar 25, 2023 15:02
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Hadlock posted:Goldman predicting a 5-20% drop in home prices over the next 12 months Paywall'd... quote:Developed economies across much of the world are still passing through home price corrections. At least that’s according to an article published this week by researchers at Goldman Sachs. U.S. prices only falling off by 5%, peak to trough. Pretty astounding given how absurd the peak was. I guess that's what you get when people are rushing to borrow mortgages of 500k+ at 2.5% rates. That cheap, lended money is locked into the system and the housing supply shortage ain't going anywhere any time soon. hobbez fucked around with this message at 17:53 on Mar 27, 2023 |
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Mar 27, 2023 17:51
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Hadlock posted:Goldman predicting a 5-20% drop in home prices over the next 12 months My god, that drop cancels out months of previous gains! Someone who bought in 2020 and sold their house a only couple years later might make less profit! Sarcasm aside, since this causes wealthy boomers to have slightly less money I expect most governments will take emergency measures to prevent it.
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Mar 27, 2023 18:02
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hobbez posted:Paywall'd... Wow, they weren't kidding about low vacancy rates:  Anyone know what the large increase in vacancy rates was in the years leading up to 2008? People buying homes as investments and leaving them empty?
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Mar 27, 2023 18:05
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drk posted:Wow, they weren't kidding about low vacancy rates: My guess would be the constructions of shittons of new homes to find new buyers to create new mortgages to package into profitable securities?
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Mar 27, 2023 18:28
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drk posted:Wow, they weren't kidding about low vacancy rates: Most of that was likely supply-side, as there were a poo poo-ton of housing starts up until the first rumblings of the global financial crisis started to hit...  ...then once it did hit, housing starts hit their lowest point since they started keeping records in 1959, and (worst of all) they stayed at those record-low levels for 4 years. Of course, the population was continuing to grow during that time. Thus leading to the situation we are in now.
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Mar 27, 2023 18:30
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drk posted:Wow, they weren't kidding about low vacancy rates: That's my recollection; it was the time of people buying houses to "flip" them, because prices only go up uP UP and it was seen as a good opportunity by people who weren't actually building contractors and thus didn't know what they were getting into. Ironically, House Flipper is actually an extremely chill game about home improvement, maintenance, renovating abandoned property, and does not involve any lending iirc. Do Recommend for if you need a little BFC Zen Garden time repairing groverhaus 
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Mar 27, 2023 18:31
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hypnophant posted:man there are like three whole forums just for doomposting I was hoping this thread is more about commenting on the state of things, making projections, and just kind of pseudo-academically observing. Naturally there’s a lot to be concerned about with the economy, but discussing that isn’t inherently doom-posting I don’t think we’ll see cheers for BLOOD here, at least
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Mar 27, 2023 19:58
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The current bank confidence crisis (beyond SVB) is in part related to an outflow of deposits to MMFs or other non-deposit alternatives (T-Bills, short-term bond funds, etc.) since bank deposit interest rates have been kept so low. Just for fun, I decided to cross-check the first post about SGOV in the long-term thread vs. bank deposit changes. The first SGOV was made by me in August, 2022.pmchem posted:(lots of words clipped in quote) Now here's bank deposits.  sorry guys we killed the banks my bad
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Mar 27, 2023 21:23
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pmchem posted:sorry guys we killed the banks my bad Oof, chartcrime They are making $18.00B -> $17.68B look like a lot more than it is This chart is better:  Some of that is definitely money moving from deposit account to money markets / treasuries / etc, but it is also people spending excess savings from the covid era. Deposit levels are still *way* above where they were in 2019.
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Mar 27, 2023 21:56
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hobbez posted:I was hoping this thread is more about commenting on the state of things, making projections, and just kind of pseudo-academically observing. Naturally there’s a lot to be concerned about with the economy, but discussing that isn’t inherently doom-posting Uh Balance of Liabilities Other than Operations Debits If you're not concerned about BLOOD loss you're going under quicker than you'd expect
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Mar 27, 2023 22:13
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more house price chat as someone who lives in the red zone, its still wildly unaffordable
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Mar 27, 2023 23:40
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As someone in the green zone, same.
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Mar 27, 2023 23:49
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January is the least-reliable time to evaluate home prices, though. It can be somewhat dependent on the weather.
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Mar 27, 2023 23:53
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Leperflesh posted:January is the least-reliable time to evaluate home prices, though. It can be somewhat dependent on the weather. I'm guessing there's significant seasonality to home sales because people don't want to do all the moving-related chores in sweltering heat or biting cold?
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Mar 28, 2023 00:24
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Warmachine posted:I'm guessing there's significant seasonality to home sales because people don't want to do all the moving-related chores in sweltering heat or biting cold? Definitely. Families prefer to move during the summer, so they don't have to pull their kids out of classes/change schools mid-semester, college students move before/after semesters, etc. Plus weather, and hours of daylight. But general seasonality can be accounted for, and often is in the stats: but if you're going to compare year over year price changes, it's better to compare with a chart - seasonally adjusted or not - rather than picking prices last january to compare to prices this january. In the latter case, one january with worse weather than the other could make a more significant impact. Here's Redfin's chart for California:  (source) You can see a little dip right above the year on the chart corresponding to the January seasonal low. This chart's last data point is February, and you can see prices have ticked up last month compared to January, but you can also get a better sense of the overall pricing trend... which is correcting back to highs from early 2021 and in particular the April-May 2022 recent peak, which was an all-time high. I like this presentation because it's also showing you other highly relevant information, like that number of sales was down 33%. We've had a very wet and stormy winter across the state, and that could be responsible for the drop in sales too. Inventory is also down:  And this shows how inventory plummets in the winter anyway. Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 00:56 on Mar 28, 2023 |
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Mar 28, 2023 00:54
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