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From the blindingly obvious files, real estate market still all hosed up Inventory and sales pretty much however you slice it is down ~20% from last year. Sale price since beginning of the year is up 0.1% YOY which is about flat with the end of 2021  I like this graph for some reason  https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-new-listings-home-prices-fall/ I'm extremely skeptical of any housing price crash, anyone in distress is going to take out a home equity loan on their historically low refinanced home long before walking away from it I keep seeing articles like "new SFH starts up 2.5%" but also, 2.5% of almost zero is still almost zero. Nothingburger of an article not worth reading: https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-single-family-housing-starts-increase-march-2023-04-18/ Any guesses as to where mortgage rates will be in two years? My guess is that jpow and friends stop increasing rates but also leave them at current values for another 4-6 months, and we see mortgage rates in the 5.25-6.5% range through at least the end of 2025
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Apr 18, 2023 17:47
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Hadlock posted:ets/us/us-single-family-housing-starts-increase-march-2023-04-18/[/url] I don't know if they're going to rise a bunch, but I doubt they'll be going back down to the 2-3% range any time ever. I just don't see the Fed getting that loose with money again unless it's in the face of another catastrafuck like '08 or Covid. Basically my take is that we're back to the ~5-8% norm that we saw all through the late 80s through ~08. Hell, looking back to before the massive spikes in the 70s gets a bit dicey because policy was so much different then, but that's still ballpark about what it was at from ~the end of WW2 through 1972. My rear end in a top hat on the internet opinion is that 4% is going to be a pretty sturdy floor for a long time barring drastic measures due to a crisis.
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Apr 18, 2023 17:54
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Cyrano4747 posted:My rear end in a top hat on the internet opinion is that 4% is going to be a pretty sturdy floor for a long time barring drastic measures due to a crisis. Strong agree, I'll go even further and say short of another black swan event I'd be surprised if we see below 4.25% in the next 15 years I would be very happy to refi our 6.25 somewhere south of 5.25, getting into the 4s would be an excellent gift
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Apr 18, 2023 18:36
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Shower thoughts: If you work for the Federal Reserve System, does that mean you're technically getting paid in company scrip?
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Apr 18, 2023 19:11
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Hadlock posted:Strong agree, I'll go even further and say short of another black swan event I'd be surprised if we see below 4.25% in the next 15 years I mean, the last 15 years spent a LOT of time under 4.25%, not just during turbulent times, so that seems like an aggressive prediction. 15 years is a REALLY long time and I don't know that people will still be operating under the current set of concerns for that stretch.
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Apr 18, 2023 19:22
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mrmcd posted:Shower thoughts: If you work for the Federal Reserve System, does that mean you're technically getting paid in company scrip? If the whole country, and most of the world, accepts it, can it really be scrip?
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Apr 18, 2023 19:43
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LanceHunter posted:There’s a very compelling piece in The Atlantic by Jean M. Twenge, called The Myth of the Broke Millennial (Apple News link to get around paywall.) Isnt that what you'd expect though? Roughly speaking, millennials are currently 30-40 years old, solidly into adulthood. Ten years ago, they would have been 20-30 years old - many still in school, or early in their careers. As someone who is currently 40 and doing reasonably well economically, I can tell you 30 was much different. When I was 30 I had a net worth of approximately zero (an improvement from most of my 20s).
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Apr 18, 2023 20:28
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Millennials at age 30 were pretty far behind boomers or Xers at the same age. It's nice that they're catching up but it wasn't so obvious that it would pan out that way.
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Apr 18, 2023 20:33
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LanceHunter posted:There’s a very compelling piece in The Atlantic by Jean M. Twenge, called The Myth of the Broke Millennial (Apple News link to get around paywall.) It's a pity he doesn't emphasis the obvious reason for the disconnect. quote:Two groups have not outpaced the generations that came before: men and people with less education. Millennial men, on average, have not seen the income increases that Millennial women have (more on that later)—a divergence at least partly explained by the growing gap in educational attainment between men and women. And overall, the median income of Americans with a four-year college degree has steadily risen while the income of those with only a high-school degree has fallen. This trend is not new, though it is troubling. quote:Men’s incomes, however, have fallen since 1970 (though not nearly as much as women’s have risen). The statistics aren’t uniform: Men on the higher rungs of the economic ladder have for the most part bucked this trend, and Millennial men’s incomes have rebounded from their Great Recession lows. But that may be cold comfort to men making less than their fathers did, especially those who don’t live (and share expenses) with women—even though men still make more than women on average. Think about how many news articles there are about understanding the "real American." It doesn't matter there's less of them proportionally than there have ever been before. So much of the media still thinks they matter more than other americans. And if a writer fervently believes the average american millennial is a white man with moderate education, that really changes the reporting on millennial economics. golden bubble fucked around with this message at 20:36 on Apr 18, 2023 |
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Apr 18, 2023 20:34
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LanceHunter posted:There’s a very compelling piece in The Atlantic by Jean M. Twenge, called The Myth of the Broke Millennial (Apple News link to get around paywall.) Are they comparing HHI? If so then I don't think it is any surprise the dual-income millennial households are outearning their single-income households of older generations.
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Apr 18, 2023 20:42
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laxbro posted:Are they comparing HHI? If so then I don't think it is any surprise the dual-income millennial households are outearning their single-income households of older generations. Individual income is mentioned in the piece as well... The Atlantic posted:Household income is only one lens, but individual income shows largely the same thing. Booms and recessions push incomes up and down, but although many media stories have tended to associate Millennials almost exclusively with the latter, they’ve now experienced both, and in a big way: Increases in income since 2014 have been steep. Also, while there are more dual-income households now than a generation ago, there are also more one-person and single-parent households as well.
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Apr 18, 2023 20:55
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golden bubble posted:Think about how many news articles there are about understanding the "real American." It doesn't matter there's less of them proportionally than there have ever been before. So much of the media still thinks they matter more than other americans. And if a writer fervently believes the average american millennial is a white man with moderate education, that really changes the reporting on millennial economics. I'd argue that much of the "millennials are permanently economically doomed" pieces aren't from writers who think the average American millennial is a white man with moderate education. Probably the exact opposite. It's coming from highly-educated journalists in places like New York City who are extrapolating their experience (astronomical student loans from j-school, working in a industry where pay has been falling, surrounded by an absolutely insane real estate market) onto the rest of their generation around the country. Decades from now I think we're going to look back and be able to better recognize just how weird it was for society when the people who are professionally responsible for reporting on the world had their economic situation go from being generally better-than-average to generally worse-than-average. It used to be that, when a local reporter for the Daily WhereverTheFuck newspaper wrote a piece, they were probably making a bit more money than a majority of the people who would eventually read it. Today, when a freelancer churning out content for Vice or Vox or wherever writes something up, it is very likely that they are making less money than the majority of the people who will eventually read that piece. LanceHunter fucked around with this message at 21:11 on Apr 18, 2023 |
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Apr 18, 2023 21:02
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I also think people romanticize the boomer generation, which really wasn't in the workforce until the 70s. Like, there was a lot of poverty in that generation too, as a % its pretty much the same. And as someone with boomer parents people act like it was unheard of to have 2 working parents but it really wasn't that unusual. Sure there are more today but I don't think it's as dramatic as is generally reported. I do think some things are much harder today for sure, and I think the zoomers have a ton of real challenges too, but we tend to look back at the past generations with some pretty strong rose colored glasses.
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Apr 18, 2023 22:41
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To add onto that, even though the average millennial matches the boomers for homeownership rates by age, it's not evenly spread. https://twitter.com/ArmandDoma/status/1648368209610035200 For the boomers, I think their yuppies were the most likely to get on the homeownership ladder, and yuppies do a disproportionate amount of writing. Meanwhile, the yuppie millennials I've met are generally more bitter about housing prices and more angry about housing policy than less well millennials. Especially since LA has overtaken Chicago as the second most culturally important city in the US.
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Apr 18, 2023 22:42
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LanceHunter posted:There’s a very compelling piece in The Atlantic by Jean M. Twenge, called The Myth of the Broke Millennial (Apple News link to get around paywall.) I'm not sure about that home ownership statistic. The only thing it really tells us is that "By age 40, 48% of Millennials have owned a home." It doesn't tell us that John Boomer got his home at 26 and James Millennial got his at 35. Which, given the amount of career and income dynamism in the 25-39 bracket, seems like a very important distinction. I'd be way more interested in the median age of the first time home owner in each generational cohort. edit: I still get paywalled, so if the author addressed this, let me know.
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Apr 19, 2023 01:01
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golden bubble posted:To add onto that, even though the average millennial matches the boomers for homeownership rates by age, it's not evenly spread. sir/madam, please revisit the thread title and OP rules, this is the no-tweet zone. I love tweets as much as the next goon but not in this thread! thank you and carry on
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Apr 19, 2023 18:49
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mrmcd posted:Shower thoughts: If you work for the Federal Reserve System, does that mean you're technically getting paid in company scrip? Post lunch thoughts: if you work for the Bureau of Engraving and Printing does that mean you're technically getting paid in kind? edit: it's gotta be kinda weird to be one of the guys who literally makes the money printer go brrrr and spot a bill with your facility's stamp on it out in the wild and know you probably saw it whiz by for a fraction of a second on its way out the door.
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Apr 19, 2023 18:57
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Fun food for thought: the majority of american money is not printed at all. It exists only electronically.quote:The Federal Reserve does have a balance sheet of $9 trillion, but it hasn't added $8 trillion anytime recently. And that number isn't close to accurate in terms of physical cash, of which there is about $2 trillion currently in circulation, according to Lydia Washington, a spokesperson for the Department of the Treasury’s Bureau of Engraving and Printing. 95% of notes printed any given day are replacing old notes, not creating new money. Physical notes only last a few years in circulation and are collected from banks all over the country (and the world I guess) for recycling. A lot of headlines and news articles about the money supply are misleading, because they use words like "printed money" when they talk about the FED adding currency to the balance sheet. This can also lead to intentional disinformation, such as when conservative outlets were insisting the Biden admin had "printed" 8 trillion dollars (or whatever) and this was the cause of inflation.
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Apr 19, 2023 19:15
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Cyrano4747 posted:Post lunch thoughts: if you work for the Bureau of Engraving and Printing does that mean you're technically getting paid in kind? Btw, the tour of the BEP was pretty cool. Unfortunately looks like they don't offer them right now. https://www.bep.gov/visitor-centers
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Apr 19, 2023 19:37
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Leperflesh posted:Fun food for thought: the majority of american money is not printed at all. It exists only electronically. the creation of reserve deposits has exactly the same impact on the money supply that printing cash does. they’re both m0 quote:such as when conservative outlets were insisting the Biden admin had "printed" 8 trillion dollars (or whatever) and this was the cause of inflation. this is disinformation because the trump admin did that, not because they got monetary policy wrong
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Apr 19, 2023 23:33
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De-dollarization. Feel like I see a new article on the topic almost every day now. Two years ago, you might see something once a quarter. https://www.aier.org/article/de-dollarization-has-begun/ https://www.aier.org/article/de-dollarization-has-begun-redux/ https://archive.is/2023.04.17-122140/https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/04/17/bangladesh-russia-yuan-china-loan/ https://www.firstpost.com/world/de-...s-12485702.html I forget where but read on social media the other day, the real reason why we invaded Iraq is they were selling oil to [X] in [Y currency] which at the time felt like a real edgelord take but, uh
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Apr 22, 2023 15:58
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You saw a similar spate of articles like that in the early 00s when the Euro came out. Like, no poo poo some people are getting off the dollar right now. They want to trade with Russia and/or they don't want American sanctions to bite as hard when they try to genocide their local ethnic/religious minority.
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Apr 22, 2023 16:08
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Oh right X was Germany and Y was the euro. I think it was in the same breath as "Biden blew up nordstream"
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Apr 22, 2023 16:27
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De-dollarization seems overhyped. I think it’s a long term concern, but a very long term one. Especially when you consider the Chinese peg their currency to the dollar. The idea of the Yuan being a threat to the primacy of the dollar is laughable in that context, let them allow their currency to float freely and see how much appetite there is for Yuan then Edit: I mean yeah the second of those two aier articles basically says “yea we wrote an article about de-dollarization but it probably wont actually happen because USD is so systematically integrated and has highly optimized markets so don’t worry about it. Maybe don’t weaponize SWIFT tho or other countries could get mad” It’s a doomer pipe dream. And any problems with the USD or the American fiscal situation needs to be weighed against the state of other countries economic houses, which face similar or greater troubles then our own hobbez fucked around with this message at 16:46 on Apr 22, 2023 |
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Apr 22, 2023 16:35
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There are a lot of cheerleaders, on both sides of the aisle, inside and outside of the US, who have been desperate to see the dollar fall, and will jump on any small sign that the end is beginning. It doesn’t necessarily mean much In particular what you usually don’t see in these articles is a discussion of prices. Russia took a huge haircut when they started accepting yuan and rupees for oil. China is presumably offering better prices for stuff bought in yuan (or they’re overpaying to buy Brazilian stuff in yuan, so that Brazil has more yuan than it wants, and can’t do anything else with.) It’s hardly surprising that Bangladesh, a very poor country surrounded by India on three sides, would have an easier time obtaining rupees than dollars. None of these things can displace the dollar China and Russia are invested in the narrative of western decline and are willing to accept unfavorable terms of trade to push that narrative. Goldbugs and goldbug-adjacent types are invested in the narrative that the fed/treasury/fiscal policy/foreign policy/etc are loving up and want to push media stories to further that narrative. These are all pretty marginal factors, considered against global eurodollar trade as a whole.
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Apr 22, 2023 16:35
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^^^ Yep, I pretty much continually hear "brics gdp > us/eur gdp" with almost no actual thought process behind any aspect of that sort of discussion.
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Apr 22, 2023 16:47
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Weird, I came here to post the DXY chart only to see they already have it in their article. So, USD's value is close to its 20 year high and the conclusion is "actually, its over for the dollar"?
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Apr 22, 2023 18:44
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Do dedollarization articles increase in frequency every time there’s a recession or a crisis?
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Apr 22, 2023 20:02
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lifg posted:Do dedollarization articles increase in frequency every time there’s a recession or a crisis? Pretty much, yeah. It's standard "the empire is crumbling, the US is doomed to be a third rate power in the new Japanese/European/Chinese/Indian/Russian world order" doom bait. I remember my grandparents fretting about how the Yen was going to become the new international currency in the 80s.
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Apr 22, 2023 20:07
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Oh, so I just looked at the wiki page for the nonprofit that published the first two articles I linked. They are a conservative think tank. I just assumed "American institute for economic research" was an arm of an economics peer reviewed journal. The opposite really https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Institute_for_Economic_Research
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Apr 22, 2023 21:33
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I only get my information from Youtube talking heads, so I suggest The Plain Bagel's video: Let's Talk De-Dollarization - Why the Dollar Isn't Going Anywhere Anytime Soon if you want someone to pour some cold water on those hot takes.
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Apr 22, 2023 21:47
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Hadlock posted:Oh, so I just looked at the wiki page for the nonprofit that published the first two articles I linked. They are a conservative think tank. I just assumed "American institute for economic research" was an arm of an economics peer reviewed journal. The opposite really As if we aren’t already alert to your neocon shilling, hadlock
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Apr 23, 2023 02:49
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hobbez posted:As if we aren’t already alert to your neocon shilling, hadlock He just wants to be the next Musk, what can possibly go wrong?
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Apr 23, 2023 03:00
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More details on First Republic.New York Times posted:First Republic Bank Lost $102 Billion in Customer Deposits So I guess the question here is if we should read this as "over a hundred billion in deposits were withdrawn, they're on their death-bed" or read it as "over a hundred billion in deposits were withdrawn and they managed to survive, so it's looking up from here". (I feel like the NYT headline writer feels pretty strongly in the later, especially because when I got the push notification that read "First Republic Bank Lost $102 Billion..." I thought the story was going to be something significantly more dire.) LanceHunter fucked around with this message at 22:08 on Apr 24, 2023 |
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Apr 24, 2023 22:04
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ist fucked around with this message at 01:35 on May 19, 2023 |
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Apr 25, 2023 00:53
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LanceHunter posted:More details on First Republic. FRC shares dropped by almost 50% today (down to a bit over $8), so the stock market at least seems to think it's the first one.
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Apr 25, 2023 22:13
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LostCosmonaut posted:FRC shares dropped by almost 50% today (down to a bit over $8), so the stock market at least seems to think it's the first one. Matt Levine had a write-up about it today arguing it's basically a zombie bank: From a regulatory perspective it probably has enough capital to continue indefinitely especially with the Fed facility and the banking industry generally working in concert to quell bank runs. From an economic perspective though, the bank is probably worth negative dollars, and they're unlikely to have any buyers at a price higher than a Snickers bar. If you accept that argument then buying any of their equity right now is basically lighting your money on fire.
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Apr 25, 2023 22:24
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Seems like the goal was to prevent FRB from going under to slow or stop additional bank runs and they succeeded at that task. Whether or not shareholder value was preserved is probably not even in the top three desired outcomes here. Their existence at this point is simply a means to an end. Zombie bank indeed.
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Apr 25, 2023 23:24
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https://archive.ph/TtiB8quote:In America’s richest enclaves, word spread quickly: A bank was offering loans on sweet terms.
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Apr 26, 2023 01:58
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With respect to de-dollarization... I think this is something you will see some interest in. And in the long term if you think about economics similarities to thermodynamics, then it should all settle out. However from the short/medium term outlook, it leads to geopolitical issues. Like who all is on the UN security council and who has permanent membership and who does not. I see the USD and Euro continuing to hold the majority for the foreseeable future. Will probably see some balance between USD, EURO, and maybe even the Australian Dollar. I think there is actual interest in.. UN SDR (Special Drawing Rights) for the basket of countries for African, South American, Asian markets. But... China is a permanent security council member and their economy isn't exactly... transparent. Russia is also a permanent security council member and is similar. With regards to Turkey and India, there are also some legitimate concerns with one party rule. I think to really see a change to something like a true basket of currencies. Then it also requires some very important changes at the UN. Like nations giving up their permanent seats. At this point I see the bulk of all future growth in Africa and Asia. Because that is where the population growth is. SA-Anon fucked around with this message at 06:00 on Apr 26, 2023 |
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Apr 26, 2023 05:48
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