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How does one get in the business of starting banks? Probably a bad time to start one now, but there'll probably be demand for them here in about 18 months after the current crop has been absorbed, and getting a state banking license probably takes at least a year
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May 12, 2023 03:45
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Hadlock posted:How does one get in the business of starting banks? Probably a bad time to start one now, but there'll probably be demand for them here in about 18 months after the current crop has been absorbed, and getting a state banking license probably takes at least a year Hasn't there been, like, very few new banks opened since Dodd-Frank? I remember reading about the hilariously named Bird-in-Hand Bank that's an Amish bank and how it was the first bank to open since 2008 despite opening in 2013. Maybe that doesn't include credit unions though. I imagine the huge regulatory hurdles plus difficulty in building a branch network and depositor base that competes with megabanks make it not very attractive outside of a few specialty niches.
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May 12, 2023 04:00
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State or National banking licenses issued? Thread darling SoFi got their national license (after aquiring a California bank) in '21 FDIC or the Fed or something publishes a list of open or pending licenses, it's not a short list
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May 12, 2023 04:09
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13-F deadline today. Appaloosa (Tepper) added a ton of $UBER Baupost (Klarman) added a ton of $GOOG Berkshire dumped its TSM, RH, BK and USB. Kept its $C, huh, thought maybe he'd sell that with other non-BAC banks. Duquesne (Druck) added a ton of $NVDA, $MSFT, $GOOGL, $AMZN. in-line with his recent AI comments. Elliott (Singer) vaguely did the same ... but with QQQ calls, making that its top holding  (but notional shares)Oaktree (Marks) added a ton of $GTX Pershing Square (Ackman) big new position in $GOOG/$GOOGL Scion (Burry) all sorts of big new things... $SIG, $NYCB, $ZM, $COF, $SBSW, etc. several banks. Third Point (Loeb) big new position in $GOOGL Viking Global (Halvorsen) large new position in $LULU nothing else too eye-catching at first glance from the ones I read. looks like Google is the big winner from Q1 filings. it's up about 15% from March 31, most of that in the past week. cmon ai tech bubble gogogo
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May 16, 2023 02:56
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pmchem posted:13-F deadline today. Do we know how far out those QQQ calls were out in the future
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May 16, 2023 03:05
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Hadlock posted:Do we know how far out those QQQ calls were out in the future not entirely sure but I don't think so? here's the official docs https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1791786/000101359423000490/0001013594-23-000490-index.htm maybe they blogged or posted about it somewhere, dunno
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May 16, 2023 03:09
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Added another 34 shares of Mosaic Co (MOS) yesterday @$36.43/share. Cheap cheap cheap...
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May 16, 2023 14:51
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How do you all decide the % of your portfolio to commit to each of your hypotheses? Because it feels like no matter whatever risk model or formula we come up with, at the end of the day the numbers we plug into those formulas are just gut feelings.
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May 17, 2023 00:41
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Love Stole the Day posted:How do you all decide the % of your portfolio to commit to each of your hypotheses? Because it feels like no matter whatever risk model or formula we come up with, at the end of the day the numbers we plug into those formulas are just gut feelings. Uh-oh they've uncovered the secret... Gauge your confidence, tempered by the risk/reward of the play.
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May 17, 2023 00:48
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Yep, it's all a play on what you think the odds/value is, versus what the market thinks. If you have a lot of confidence that the market price is off, make a big bet, otherwise stay very diversified. Those convictions don't come around often though! I'm mostly making relatively small bets here and there. Only had a very strong belief three times, got my money in twice. And paid off once. Hey, wd is about to merge with kioxia, and perhaps split into HD and SSD companies. Seagate will get paid for their chunk of kioxia, but I'm having a hard time seeing how this will be good for them long-term. Refocused competition against them in the legacy HDD space, and lose their toehold in SSD. Unless they can buy microns nand factory, the options are getting a lot fewer. Maybe they think they can just build out their own at some point, when they aren't able to buy nand from one of the remaining manufacturers cheaply enough.
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May 17, 2023 01:54
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Love Stole the Day posted:How do you all decide the % of your portfolio to commit to each of your hypotheses? Because it feels like no matter whatever risk model or formula we come up with, at the end of the day the numbers we plug into those formulas are just gut feelings. Well I think the proper answer here says you take a look at the Kelly Criterion but uh, yeah, I ain't got time for that. It's probably easier to identify a stupid allocation than a great one unless you have the benefit of hindsight.
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May 17, 2023 03:05
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Where is the line line drawn between hedge fund and investment bank? Obviously one needs a banking license, and probably regulated by the Fed, whereas hedge funds are FINRA regulated and probably not subject to banking laws, deposits not subject to FDIC etc What's the first year failure rate for hedge funds
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May 18, 2023 01:05
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Hadlock posted:Where is the line line drawn between hedge fund and investment bank? Obviously one needs a banking license, and probably regulated by the Fed, whereas hedge funds are FINRA regulated and probably not subject to banking laws, deposits not subject to FDIC etc That's kind of a two parter. Hedge funds don't guarantee any returns whatsoever, everything is projections. Investment bank I would treat in the opposite direction, generally. Give to hedge fund/receive from investment bank? Failure rate for hedge funds is very high, 2/3 fail at 5 years.. Which is very in line with what happens for a majority of retail traders and retail algotraders. Things sound fine until things fail. Same concept as building for failure in tech.
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May 18, 2023 01:47
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If you knew for certain China was going to invade Taiwan an hour before NYSE open Monday, what would you buy (not options)
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May 19, 2023 00:11
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Hadlock posted:If you knew for certain China was going to invade Taiwan an hour before NYSE open Monday, what would you buy (not options) Vix ETF, or Soxs to short semiconductors.
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May 19, 2023 00:19
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Hadlock posted:If you knew for certain China was going to invade Taiwan an hour before NYSE open Monday, what would you buy (not options) The entire inventory of the nearest Microcenter
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May 19, 2023 00:22
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pmchem posted:The entire inventory of the nearest Microcenter Lol. Sell everything, put it into SQQQ and TZA, if you think those bets will still gonna get paid out. Maybe hurry to cash them out.
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May 19, 2023 00:28
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Short TQQQ long volatility
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May 19, 2023 00:47
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Hadlock posted:(not options)
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May 19, 2023 01:05
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NVDA is quite the sight if it increases revenues by 30% every year for the next 5 years (something it did not achieve at least since the GFC), and at the end of that is earning the best net profit margin it has ever made, and the market cap is unchanged in that time... its p/e will only be 22 after those 5 years! broadcom, the 2nd largest US semi company, currently has a p/e of 22.x. it also has about 7x the EPS growth of nvda over the past 5Y and 1.5x the ROI. something something AI
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May 19, 2023 01:58
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Comedy answer INTC
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May 19, 2023 02:08
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Hadlock posted:If you knew for certain China was going to invade Taiwan an hour before NYSE open Monday, what would you buy (not options) Wait. What do you do for a living?
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May 19, 2023 02:09
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I work for a pretty generic startup that's focused on the domestic market. Probably
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May 19, 2023 02:14
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Why wouldn’t you buy options this hypothetical makes no sense.
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May 19, 2023 02:17
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Baddog posted:Lol. The sell everything scenario is already upon us. 
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May 19, 2023 02:20
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Pastrami posted:Why wouldn’t you buy options this hypothetical makes no sense. Because they look at options for insider trading, and you probably shouldn't trust internet advice that the thing is going to happen on the exact date/time
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May 19, 2023 02:23
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Hadlock posted:Because they look at options for insider trading, and you probably shouldn't trust internet advice that the thing is going to happen on the exact date/time I don’t think the SEC is going to flag you for buying your 7 vix calls before a geopolitical black swan.
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May 19, 2023 02:38
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Hadlock posted:Because they look at options for insider trading, and you probably shouldn't trust internet advice that the thing is going to happen on the exact date/time They also check stocks, and any invasion definitely isn't soon, you'd see the buildup on satellite images. The invasion, if/ when it happens, most likely won't be a surprise.
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May 19, 2023 03:07
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Hadlock posted:Because they look at options for insider trading, and you probably shouldn't trust internet advice that the thing is going to happen on the exact date/time They also monitor this thread. Martha Stewart was a goon.
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May 19, 2023 03:12
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also how is "we think there's about to be a war" insider information at any company
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May 19, 2023 03:14
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Hadlock posted:If you knew for certain China was going to invade Taiwan an hour before NYSE open Monday, what would you buy (not options) significantly less 
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May 19, 2023 03:16
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notwithoutmyanus posted:significantly less It came up in a conversation; I was curious what the thread would do in that situation: see also thread title
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May 19, 2023 03:21
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Hadlock posted:It came up in a conversation; I was curious what the thread would do in that situation: see also thread title I totally understand, I'm being silly. I think the responses in the thread are pretty reasonable, but without doing options I'd say you could open a futures short on everything as well using the CME mini/micro's/NDX, etc. I'd be shorting CNYUSD as well.
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May 19, 2023 04:47
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Hadlock posted:If you knew for certain China was going to invade Taiwan an hour before NYSE open Monday, what would you buy (not options) NDRA
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May 19, 2023 06:18
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also what I would buy if china was not going to invade taiwan
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May 19, 2023 07:02
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We're gonna get bernanke'd today, according to this news article: https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-futures-powell-speech-warren-buffett-occidental-petroleum/ So, I'm thinking of just taking profits due to the uncertainty (especially considering the Cramer post a bit ago), even though it's only 3%~6% for everything, and just re-entering afterward in new positions. edit: I worry that today will be a pump and dump Love Stole the Day fucked around with this message at 14:20 on May 19, 2023 |
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May 19, 2023 14:14
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I’m gonna feel like such a fool if China invades next week and I did nothing based on this hypothetical.
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May 19, 2023 14:20
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latinotwink1997 posted:I’m gonna feel like such a fool if China invades next week and I did nothing based on this hypothetical. How do you feel not buying SOFI all last year?
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May 19, 2023 17:21
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What if on Tuesday immediately before market opens that the Chinese announce they've bought off the FTC and acquired JP Morgan in cash, and bought and merged it with SoFi at 5x face value, but they're keeping the SOFI ticker. What would your move be today? No options
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May 19, 2023 17:28
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Hadlock posted:What if on Tuesday immediately before market opens that the Chinese announce they've bought off the FTC and acquired JP Morgan in cash, and bought and merged it with SoFi at 5x face value, but they're keeping the SOFI ticker. What would your move be today? No options Probably stop taking LSD OP
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May 19, 2023 17:33
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