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Hadlock posted:If you knew for certain China was going to invade Taiwan an hour before NYSE open Monday, what would you buy (not options) Texas Instruments (TXN)? Probably a basket of US defence stocks like Lockheed Martin (LMT) though the US isn't going to do much but huff n' bluff.
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May 19, 2023 19:30
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https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/19/jim-cramer-says-brace-yourself-for-next-weeks-debt-ceiling-deal-.htmlquote:CNBCs Jim Cramer told investors on Friday to brace themselves for the week ahead as Washington teases a resolution to the debt ceiling crisis. jim don't care about 2011
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May 20, 2023 02:05
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Hadlock posted:What if on Tuesday immediately before market opens that the Chinese announce they've bought off the FTC and acquired JP Morgan in cash, and bought and merged it with SoFi at 5x face value, but they're keeping the SOFI ticker. What would your move be today? No options Again, less  . These are some bonkers hypotheticals. If Chinese took over the individual stock moves and stock market itself are irrelevant.
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May 20, 2023 02:24
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Closed most of my positions ahead of the Fed Chair talk Part of me wants to skip a few steps and go to $8k~$10k bets, because I haven't been burned yet. I worry about the psychological part of scaling up, where each % point is like a month's rent or more. I'm sure for you all it's nothing because you've been doing it for longer. Maybe this is all just part of the process of getting into this stuff as a hobby.
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May 20, 2023 13:50
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first saw a version of this in 2020 or 2021 but it is still a fun read. i keep some notes of my own but nothing so exhaustive: https://twitter.com/upslopecapital/status/1659940625129811969
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May 20, 2023 17:47
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Hadlock posted:If you knew for certain China was going to invade Taiwan an hour before NYSE open Monday, what would you buy (not options) Every hard drive Amazon has in stock
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May 20, 2023 19:14
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MetaJew posted:How do you feel not buying SOFI all last year? Pretty good really.
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May 22, 2023 18:00
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I use SoFi for banking and for a small dumbshit funbux brokerage account, but I don't own $SOFI So am I a terrible person or no
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May 23, 2023 01:27
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Did anyone make a sofi's choice joke?
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May 23, 2023 01:32
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Syrinxx posted:I use SoFi for banking and for a small dumbshit funbux brokerage account, but I don't own $SOFI you are a smart person
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May 23, 2023 01:40
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Gaius Marius posted:Did anyone make a sofi's choice joke? No and 
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May 23, 2023 04:30
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It's shocking how much the mega-cap tech stocks have climbed early this year. Apple/Microsoft/Google/Amazon all +30-40% YTD, Meta and Nvidia are both +100% YTD. Meanwhile the SPY itself is up 8% YTD. And those megacaps alone make up almost 25% of the SPY by cap weight. AI hype boosting tech? Fake economy? People seeking "safety" in the biggest cap companies? Hard to decide what to invest in at the moment. Especially when the core cash position at Fidelity is up over 4.7%.
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May 23, 2023 19:42
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they've all cut staff, and the market loving loves it when big tech companies lay off 5% of their employees
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May 23, 2023 19:48
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Subvisual Haze posted:It's shocking how much the mega-cap tech stocks have climbed early this year. Apple/Microsoft/Google/Amazon all +30-40% YTD, Meta and Nvidia are both +100% YTD. Meanwhile the SPY itself is up 8% YTD. And those megacaps alone make up almost 25% of the SPY by cap weight. Sure, they're up YTD, but only because they crashed right before the new year. Most are still down from the peak, or are Apple.
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May 23, 2023 19:52
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Subvisual Haze posted:It's shocking how much the mega-cap tech stocks have climbed early this year. Apple/Microsoft/Google/Amazon all +30-40% YTD, Meta and Nvidia are both +100% YTD. Meanwhile the SPY itself is up 8% YTD. And those megacaps alone make up almost 25% of the SPY by cap weight. Those companies were down *bigly* last year, you're picking a pretty deep trough to measure their bounce. I guess apple and nvidia are back near their all time highs though. Nvidia in particular seems overinflated to me right now. for the AI hype, microsoft doesn't seem nearly as pumped as nvidia is. Looks like they don't actually "own" openai though. The structure is kind of weird. https://fourweekmba.com/who-owns-openai/ Meta still seems to be floundering around, maybe just not quite as much. apple continues to crush. google's search engine *sucks* right now (relatively), just swamped with bullshit. They actually seem somewhat vulnerable to me, for the first time in forever. Amazon, I dunno. I still think their cloud solution is better, but their innovation seems to be slowing? But they are still (deservedly) way off their highs.
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May 23, 2023 19:55
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oops
Red fucked around with this message at 20:53 on May 23, 2023 |
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May 23, 2023 19:58
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Red posted:Someone just ran Goose -> Storm -> Polaris -> Spider-Man, with Spidey on T5. Fuckin' brutal. If it weren't for "Spider-Man" I'm not sure I would've known you were in the wrong thread. At first I wondered if you were describing some sort of complicated set of trades or something.
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May 23, 2023 20:02
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They put option trading into marvel snap yet?
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May 23, 2023 20:07
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Etrade lets me enter that thanos gold split on T4
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May 23, 2023 20:11
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I think he's in the right thread
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May 23, 2023 20:22
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Baddog posted:Etrade lets me enter that thanos gold split on T4 This guy gets it
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May 23, 2023 20:53
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Anyone doing anything of note now that debt ceiling shenanigans are starting to come into full focus? I put on some index shorts but haven't actually sold any of my longs. VIX at 18 feels low here.
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May 23, 2023 21:35
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I thought about this too, but it is stunning to me how vulnerable Google Search feels. It is impossible to find anything on it and i have to spend so much time self-filtering or garbage results because they are making no effort in providing good search. I don't know what to be excited about wrt Google as a company and an tempted to buy some long, long puts on them. What was the last piece of software Google either made or updated that was exciting? They have a huge portfolio of software that people use, but I'm not sure anyone is really attached to any of their stuff, except passively by circumstance. I will say that some of their modern software does solve complex infrastructural problems, but they have lost all touch with what it means to actually use that software that I think they are asking for slow if steady migration away from their platforms if/when other people enter the market. Google's business plan 15 years ago was, 'make good software'' and that works very well if you actually execute on that plan, but those days are long gone. If you are going to make garbage software, then you should make it really hard to move away from your garbage - Apple has figured this out long ago and I don't know if Google is in a position to lock people onto their platform without causing more business harm then good. Canine Blues Arooo fucked around with this message at 22:00 on May 23, 2023 |
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May 23, 2023 21:52
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Going to need a Steve Jobs type person to convince consumers to switch from Google to ChatGPT Whoever is running open ai is not that person Google still has a significant moat in that most Android phones point to Google.com for most services, and people rarely change the defaults on their devices
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May 23, 2023 21:55
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Google search sucks rear end but instead of striking while they have an openint microsoft is trying to pivot their competitor into bonzi buddy
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May 23, 2023 22:06
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Hadlock posted:Going to need a Steve Jobs type person to convince consumers to switch from Google to ChatGPT Certainly, but this is something that I think is going to happen on the scale of a decade and it's the kind of thing that is going to be extremely hard to reverse. Windows has been experiencing this basically since Windows 7 and I expect Windows' position as the dominant desktop OS to be in question come 2035, with no real route to reclaim that unless they pull their head out of their asses. Something like Manifest V3 is going to cause some core chunk of nerds to switch to Firefox, but if some critical mass of ads can no longer be trivially blocked on Chromium that can be blocked on Firefox, that wave will gradually expand to an increasingly ignorant chunk of the market share. It'll take many years, but it wouldn't be the first time we've seen it.
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May 23, 2023 22:07
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Canine Blues Arooo posted:this is something that I think is going to happen on the scale of a decade and Is there any discussion on setting up options to be traded on a ten year basis? Furthest out I've seen is like, something like 24 months currently
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May 23, 2023 22:13
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Hadlock posted:Is there any discussion on setting up options to be traded on a ten year basis? Furthest out I've seen is like, something like 24 months currently Yeah, I think that might not be real. The longest I think I've ever see is somewhere on the order of 3 years. I can put MSFT puts 950 days out right now but that's the largest I found looking around for a few minutes.
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May 23, 2023 22:20
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Hadlock posted:Is there any discussion on setting up options to be traded on a ten year basis? Furthest out I've seen is like, something like 24 months currently Just buy the underlying
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May 23, 2023 22:24
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Hadlock posted:Is there any discussion on setting up options to be traded on a ten year basis? Furthest out I've seen is like, something like 24 months currently SPX index options are available to retail traders right now out to Dec 2027. If you need something further than that you're probably someone with a whole lot of money and you just directly talk to your investment banker about that. For example, Warren Buffett (link from August 2010): https://www.reuters.com/article/us-buffett-options/buffett-gets-in-a-bind-over-options-idUSTRE6734YK20100804 "At the end of the first quarter, Berkshire had $36.76 billion at risk through these trades. For a graphic of his liabilities from the options, click on link.reuters.com/zyw33n That is, if all four indices fell to zero at the contract expiration date, Berkshire would have to pay $36.76 billion. The options, entered between 2004 and 2008, had maturities of 15 or 20 years, Berkshire has said." Agronox posted:Anyone doing anything of note now that debt ceiling shenanigans are starting to come into full focus? I put on some index shorts but haven't actually sold any of my longs. yeah per discussion elsewhere I sold some longs at opex in order to reposition later. don't mind tuesday's action at all.
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May 23, 2023 22:36
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Oscar Wild posted:Just buy the underlying What if you want to bet against Google for say, spring 2033
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May 23, 2023 22:44
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Hadlock posted:What if you want to bet against Google for say, spring 2033 I believe you can short indefinitely as long as you pay the margin interest. More risky than options though.
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May 23, 2023 23:01
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Buffet selling mass quantities of ATM spy puts, like a complete degen. His whole company was at risk there if he sold 60 billion when they had a capitalization of 300b. I didn't know he had a position that large coming out of the great recession! (Yes, european style, 15 years expiration. Still.)
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May 23, 2023 23:26
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Leperflesh posted:they've all cut staff, and the market loving loves it when big tech companies lay off 5% of their employees PYPL did 7% but their stock tanked FYI
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May 23, 2023 23:34
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Hadlock posted:Is there any discussion on setting up options to be traded on a ten year basis? Furthest out I've seen is like, something like 24 months currently I think that's basically a contract for differences (CFD)? They are illegal in the US since they are super risky and pretty much sold only by very unscrupulous folks. The crypto world also loves perpetual futures which are similarly super high risk and super sketchy.
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May 23, 2023 23:43
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Canine Blues Arooo posted:I thought about this too, but it is stunning to me how vulnerable Google Search feels. It is impossible to find anything on it and i have to spend so much time self-filtering or garbage results because they are making no effort in providing good search. Baddog posted:
It really crept up on me like, I'd occasionally read some whining about Google Search had gotten worse and I'd be like "yea yea" but you know what, it really has gotten worse. It just feels like a sludge of ads and irrelevant hits these days. And same side of the coin, if you search for anything on amazon it's again searching through a sludge of scammy looking knockoff stuff straight from alibaba. I bailed out of my Amazon holdings, cancelled Prime and barely use the site these days. Earlier on I kind of thought that Google was becoming this impenetrable sort of new cash cow value type stock but yea they do seem vulnerable these days. The product isn't good.
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May 24, 2023 01:41
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I saw some talk of Samsung switichng to Bing as default on the Galaxy. That would be a massive shift, but I haven't seen anything about it since the GPT hype was highest a coupla months ago
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May 24, 2023 01:52
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Gaius Marius posted:I saw some talk of Samsung switichng to Bing as default on the Galaxy. That would be a massive shift, but I haven't seen anything about it since the GPT hype was highest a coupla months ago https://arstechnica.com/google/2023/05/samsung-backs-down-from-its-threat-to-switch-its-android-phones-to-bing/ It was just a negotiation tactic.
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May 24, 2023 02:58
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How do I short the entire Filipino/Phillipines call center industry In the last month I've had recruiters from four different companies who are going to actually automate the call center industry using AI
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May 24, 2023 03:04
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Hadlock posted:In the last month I've had recruiters from four different companies who are going to actually automate the call center industry using AI someone somewhere is making the horny version of this and is going to make a lot of money
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May 24, 2023 03:24
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