War in Ukraine CE: The Golf War

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(Thread IKs: fatherboxx)

Rappaport: Oct 2, 2013

Willo567 posted:

Do we have any other evidence that the nukes were moved from Belgorod besides Ukraine saying they were? Wouldn't the U.S. notice them being removed?

Aren't you answering your own hypothetical there, champ?

# ? May 25, 2023 19:51

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# ? Jun 1, 2024 18:26

Warbadger: Jun 17, 2006

Nenonen posted:

Anti-shipping missiles are limited by sensor range - you need a radar contact or something before you start firing multi-million missiles to the horizon. If the enemy fleet stays at a safe range from your coast then coastal missile batteries can't touch them. A drone you can just send out and look for targets even in their home harbour.

Russian use of radar guided anti-shipping missiles on cities suggests you do not, in fact, need a radar contact or anything to start firing multi-million dollar missiles at the horizon. You just have to be a malicious rear end in a top hat who doesn't care about what it hits.

But yes, to actually engage useful military targets you need a lot more going on with a cruise missile than a USV that somebody can drive over to a target area overnight, look around for warships, and plow into exactly what he wants by remote control.

# ? May 25, 2023 19:59

mutata: Mar 1, 2003

Rappaport posted:

Aren't you answering your own hypothetical there, champ?

The only thing that will satisfy Willo is being killed in the exact nuclear explosion that triggers the end of the world.

# ? May 25, 2023 20:00

Djarum: Apr 1, 2004; by vyelkin

steinrokkan posted:

The best way to "hit" is to detonate just underneath the centerline so the cavity of the explosion creates a localized difference in flotation, leading to twisting forced that can literally break the ship in half.

Yeah that makes perfect sense with the physics. I just am thinking about most of the anti-ship missiles that are designed to hit at the waterline to maximize the amount of displacement quickly. Obviously with a torpedo that would likely have a larger warhead on it as well you would want to hit centerline compared to a middle or one of these drones that you are wanting to hit a ship several times to cause sudden displacement to do the same thing.

# ? May 25, 2023 20:01

HolHorsejob: Mar 14, 2020; Portrait of Cheems II of Spain by Jabona Neftman, olo pint on fird

Willo567 posted:

Do we have any other evidence that the nukes were moved from Belgorod besides Ukraine saying they were? Wouldn't the U.S. notice them being removed?

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Last I heard, the nukes were missing, and a Russian mob courier somewhere is puzzling over the Google translate for a map to "willo's nutsack"

# ? May 25, 2023 20:18

Orthanc6: Nov 4, 2009

steinrokkan posted:

The best way to "hit" is to detonate just underneath the centerline so the cavity of the explosion creates a localized difference in flotation, leading to twisting forced that can literally break the ship in half.

Alternatively, hit the side of a ship which has locked off it's firefighting equipment to prevent theft and did not have all of its defense systems on despite being at war. The whole ship goes up in flames from what should be a survivable emergency and then sinks.

The sensors, guidance, 3-axis steering and ballast systems of a torpedo add a lot of cost and complexity. Strapping bombs to a bunch of cheap motorboats would still be somewhat of a threat to the US Navy, for the state that the Russian navy is in it's extremely good bang-for-buck to either deter or outright disable Russia's ops in the Black Sea.

# ? May 25, 2023 20:45

Burning_Monk: Jan 11, 2005; Mad, Bad, and Dangerous to know

Yeah, I mean Ukraine destroyed the literally Black Sea Fleet's Flagship with the cunning plan of deploying TWO drones instead of one.

The Russian navy once last a ship to an alligator. A whole ship!

# ? May 25, 2023 20:49

cr0y: Mar 24, 2005

Burning_Monk posted:

Yeah, I mean Ukraine destroyed the literally Black Sea Fleet's Flagship with the cunning plan of deploying TWO drones instead of one.

The Russian navy once last a ship to an alligator. A whole ship!

I thought they got that one with a Neptune?

# ? May 25, 2023 20:56

Burning_Monk: Jan 11, 2005; Mad, Bad, and Dangerous to know

cr0y posted:

I thought they got that one with a Neptune?

Two Neptunes!*

*because the Russian ship could only track one target at a time.

# ? May 25, 2023 21:01

Cicero: Dec 17, 2003; Jumpjet, melta, jumpjet. Repeat for ten minutes or until victory is assured.

IIRC they also used a Bayraktar nearby to distract the ship

# ? May 25, 2023 21:32

Tigey: Apr 6, 2015

Willo567 posted:

Do we have any other evidence that the nukes were moved from Belgorod besides Ukraine saying they were? Wouldn't the U.S. notice them being removed?

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Our evidence is that your balls still exist

# ? May 25, 2023 21:53

madeintaipei: Jul 13, 2012

Tigey posted:

Our evidence is that your balls still exist

Willo's nuts are like a barometer for thermonuclear war. A Ballrometer, if you will.

# ? May 25, 2023 22:17

Vorenus: Jul 14, 2013

Willo567 posted:

Do we have any other evidence that the nukes were moved from Belgorod besides Ukraine saying they were? Wouldn't the U.S. notice them being removed?

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

You should find a way to get repeated X-ray exposure to your balls. Gotta build up immunity for when the big bombs fall.

# ? May 25, 2023 22:45

Vincent Van Goatse: Nov 8, 2006; Enjoy every sandwich.; Smellrose

Willo567 posted:

Do we have any other evidence that the nukes were moved from Belgorod besides Ukraine saying they were? Wouldn't the U.S. notice them being removed?

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

They're all under your bed and Vladimir Putin told me he's going to set them off tonight.

# ? May 25, 2023 22:48

fatherboxx: Mar 25, 2013

Okay thats enough of nuking scrotums for time being

# ? May 25, 2023 22:51

ummel: Jun 17, 2002; <3 Lowtax; Fun Shoe

Caveat of Russian propaganda, false flag, etc etc. I hadn't seen this posted before, nor had I heard of anything like this happening in "early May."
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/05/25/russia-arrests-ukrainians-planning-nuke-power-plant-strikes-fsb-a81278

quote:

Russia has arrested two Ukrainians who had allegedly planned to target nuclear power plants in the country, the FSB security service said on Thursday.

"A sabotage group from the Ukrainian foreign intelligence service... tried to blow up some 30 power lines of nuclear power plants in Leningrad and Kalinin" in early May with the aim of stopping the nuclear reactors at the plants, Russian news agencies quoted the FSB as saying in a statement.

The aim was to cause "serious economic harm to Russia and damage its reputation," it said.

The men had brought down "a pylon carrying a high voltage line and planted mines in four pylons carrying high voltage lines from the Leningrad nuclear power station."

Explosives were also planted near seven similar pylons linked to the Kalinin nuclear plant, it added.

The FSB said it was looking for a third man with Ukrainian-Russian nationality, adding that 36.5 kilos of explosives and about 60 detonators were found in the homes of the suspects and their alleged accomplices.

Two Russians who allegedly helped the trio were also arrested, the FSB said.

(this is the whole article, fwiw)

Seems like a sharp uptick in general ~~things happening~~ this spring. Not just shaping operations, but intelligence and sabotage type activities (edit- assuming any of this is real at all).

ummel fucked around with this message at 23:02 on May 25, 2023

# ? May 25, 2023 22:57

spankmeister: Jun 15, 2008

Lots of Russians with Ukrainian descent, hopefully this doesn't lead to some kind of witch hunt.

# ? May 25, 2023 23:34

poor waif: Apr 8, 2007; Kaboom

spankmeister posted:

Lots of Russians with Ukrainian descent, hopefully this doesn't lead to some kind of witch hunt.

From a propaganda perspective, it'd make it even harder to convince Ukrainians that living in Russia might not be so bad. They want to keep pretending Ukrainians are just confused Russians, a witch hunt wouldn't help with that.

# ? May 25, 2023 23:49

DarklyDreaming: Apr 4, 2009; Fun scary

Storkrasch posted:

From a propaganda perspective, it'd make it even harder to convince Ukrainians that living in Russia might not be so bad. They want to keep pretending Ukrainians are just confused Russians, a witch hunt wouldn't help with that.

From a propaganda perspective everything that has happened since February 24th 2022 has made it harder for Russia to convince people that Ukrainians are just confused Russians. Might as well add a meaningless witch-hunt to the pile of dumb poo poo

# ? May 26, 2023 01:40

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

SECDEF and CJCS gave a press briefing after the 12th meeting of the Ukraine contact group. Not much concrete announced.

Video here:
https://www.c-span.org/video/?528333-1/secretary-austin-general-milley-news-conference

Highlights / Parahrasing (transcript not out in a friendly format yet):

-Netherlands and Denmark taking lead on training Ukrainians on F-16s, and there is discussion of maybe other 4th gen aircraft. No real idea of timeline, when fielded, how many, etc. There is a LOT that goes into standing up functional fixed-wing squadrons, with a new type of aircraft.
-Continuing to work on building new or determining what air defenses can be donated to Ukraine.
-Continuing to ramp up industrial base and production.
-When asked why F-16 decision reversed and why US hasn't donated their own F-16s, Austin repeats similar comments to what were already made previously, essentially. Points out that the US has focused on the things that are most important and critical to defend themselves. Points out that air defenses have paid off well, and can be fielded faster and cheaper than something like F-16s. Also points out the 9 armored and mechanized brigades supplied and trained. Milley says the fastest, quickest, cheapest way to contest the airspace and deny air superiority to the Russians, as has been done. Milley states that fielding and sustaining F-16s is about $2 billion to buy and sustain 10 aircraft, and Russia has 1,000 aircraft, between 4th and 5th gen. Argues the GBAD was the smartest way to contest the air, but F-16s will have some role in the future.
-Milley confirms there are no magic weapons in war.
-Milley lays out that when determining how/what to give to Ukraine, there are cost, risk, benefit analysis.
-Milley: USEUCOM staff is evaluating whether or not US equipment was taken into Russia on the recent raid. He can't say whether or not that was US equipment. He reiterates that the US has asked Ukraine not to use any US donated equipment to directly attack into Russia. The conflict includes the US and NATO training, advising, assisting, supporting defense of Ukraine in their war, but this is not a war between the US or NATO and Russia. Austin: the weapons donated are to defend Ukrainian sovereign territory.
-As is typical, points out that it's an international effort, and some countries can and do provide weapons, others training, others funding.
-When asked if the strategy is to help Ukraine get a decisive win or to get a better hand at a negotiated settlement, Austin says Ukrainians decide the goal, and the international community is supporting their significant fight and defense of their country. There is a balance to what can be provided for them to pull soldiers off the line to train versus remaining on the lines. Milley: All wars come to an end either with a clear victory or a negotiated settlement. Russia is not going to win this war, militarily. Ukrainian objectives to liberate all of Ukrainian territory occupied by Russian forces might be achievable militarily someday, but not in the near term.

# ? May 26, 2023 02:41

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

https://iz.ru/1516103/2023-05-22/v-rossii-predlozhili-vvesti-shestidnevnuiu-rabochuiu-nedeliu

A Russian business tycoon association has proposed a new 'patriotic' work time law that would move Russians to a six work day week while keeping the pay at the five days level. They claim this would help the state's economy in dealing with the war and sanctions. The argument goes that Soviets worked seven days a week to defeat Nazis and rebuild the country, so this would actually be lenient. State controlled media has reacted positively to the modest proposal.

Just wow. Who can claim anymore that capital doesn't have a fatherland?? :zpatriot:

# ? May 26, 2023 03:51

Mr. Apollo: Nov 8, 2000

mlmp08 posted:

-Netherlands and Denmark taking lead on training Ukrainians on F-16s, and there is discussion of maybe other 4th gen aircraft. No real idea of timeline, when fielded, how many, etc. There is a LOT that goes into standing up functional fixed-wing squadrons, with a new type of aircraft.

I guess the theories about the F-15 might be right

# ? May 26, 2023 04:01

Young Freud: Nov 26, 2006

Krasnodar, Russia, just got drone striked with something similar to the Shaheds. Somewhat notable since Krasnodar is on the other side of Crimea.

# ? May 26, 2023 04:14

OddObserver: Apr 3, 2009

quote:

....and can be fielded faster and cheaper than something like F-16s. ...

... Too bad Western Ground+based Air Defense production is like one strategic system per quarter.

# ? May 26, 2023 04:27

Edgar Quintero: Oct 5, 2004; POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
DO NOT GIVE HEROIN

I found an Al Jazeera article that seems to address a lot of what has been discussed in this thread with regards to specific weapons and strategy and the effects they will have on the war. Bolder parts are mine, italics are my notes or comments.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/25/will-ukraines-new-weapons-boost-counterattacks-against-russia

quote:

The conflict in Ukraine is about to enter a new high-intensity phase as Kyiv�s troops gear up for an anticipated counteroffensive.

Ukraine�s persistent lobbying of allies has yielded significant results as NATO members have gradually relented to supplying high-tech weapons.

The fighting in the coming weeks is likely to be bloody, as Ukraine aims to take back territory Russia took from it in the opening weeks of the invasion in 2022.

What are these weapons, and why are they needed?

Armoured punch

More than 230 Western main battle tanks have been transferred to Ukraine, including United States-made Abrams M1s and British Challenger 2s. But the vast majority are German-made Leopard 2 tanks.

These models are some of the world�s best in terms of firepower, protection and mobility � the tanks have been specifically designed to defeat Russia�s strongest battlefield efforts.

A potent combination of upgraded electronics, sensor suites and night-fighting abilities amplifies their abilities, giving commanders the means to detect and destroy Russian tanks at a far greater range than the enemy.

Why is this useful? They will be the armoured fist, at the tip of the counteroffensive, that will punch holes through enemy defences, exploiting gaps where they can, then wreak havoc behind Russian defensive lines � but they won�t be doing it alone.

Troop mobility

Advancing with and just behind the tanks will be mechanised infantry units, mainly using Infantry Fighting Vehicles like the US Bradley or German Marder. Also 200 armoured personnel carriers supplied by glorious Canada in our infinite kind heartedness and also half-assedness

Able to transport troops in relative safety, these vehicles are armed with a variety of 30mm cannon or anti-tank missiles and can defend themselves while providing supporting fire.

Hundreds of IFVs have been given by NATO members to Ukraine for this offensive, the most important so far of the war.

Ukrainian troops have taken intensive courses in fighting a modern war the NATO way, in addition to the tactical innovations the Ukrainians have already ably mastered for themselves. Speed will be key in advancing across the relatively flat, open spaces of southern Ukraine. To help them do that, artillery will come into play.

Vast volumes of 155mm ammunition have been stockpiled by both sides in anticipation of the coming battle. The thirst is colossal, with the Ukrainian military recently estimating it needs at least 12,000 shells per day to achieve its goals. Modern howitzers can fire these shells up to 30km (18.6 miles), but in a fast-moving conflict, targets deep behind Russian lines will have to be destroyed.

Enter HIMARS �

HIMARS and long-range artillery
One of the most effective weapons of the war so far is the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System or HIMARS. A precision-guided rocket system, it can fire a salvo with a 100kg (220.4 lbs) warhead that will land within metres of each other up to 80km (49.7 miles) away.

This gives it a serious punch as high-value targets can be utterly destroyed far behind the front lines.

Russian military logistics rely heavily on the rail system and marshalling yards and train depots make for very easy targets as they cannot be moved or changed.

HIMARS has been extremely efficient at destroying Russian fuel and ammunition depots, troop concentrations, and command and control centres as Ukraine has attempted to wear down Russia�s ability to conduct military operations.

The Russian military is not oblivious to this and has slowly pulled back its supply centres, where possible, and moved its command posts further back, beyond the range of HIMARS rockets.

Storm Shadow

The United Kingdom�s recent donation of hundreds of Storm Shadow cruise missiles will massively complicate Russian military plans.

Flying just under the speed of sound at treetop level, the stealthy cruise missile can deliver a 480kg (1058 lbs) �bunker buster� warhead with pinpoint accuracy over 250km (155.3 miles) away. It is sophisticated enough to fly around obstacles and areas that are heavily protected by air defence batteries.

It has an extremely small radar cross-section making it extremely hard to spot and track.

As it approaches, it climbs and dives down onto its target. The first of two charges blows a hole in the target, allowing the main charge to enter and detonate from inside, destroying it utterly.

It is designed to devastate high-value targets with little to no warning, regardless of whether they are reinforced or buried underground.

It will also be very effective against any large structure such as the vital Kerch Strait bridge, which has already been damaged in an earlier attack.

Ukraine may not have many of them, but if used carefully against major targets, they could very well tip the balance in the coming conflict, having given Ukraine the long-range punch it has always desired.

Airpower

All this will amount to very little if Ukraine cannot control the skies above the battlefield.

Despite President Volodymyr Zelenskyy�s regular pleas to the international community, no Western jets that have been promised are likely to arrive to make a difference in this battle. umm� citation needed? Any military/ aeronautics goons wanna weigh in on this?

What have been useful though, are the donations of MiG-29 Soviet legacy fighter jets from Slovakia and Poland that have made up for losses throughout the conflict.

Russia�s air force outnumbered Ukraine�s by more than four to one at the start of the war. It is one of the great surprises to observers of the conflict that Russia, despite an overwhelming advantage, failed dismally to destroy Ukraine�s air force in the opening days of the invasion.

Ukrainian Air Force still flies sorties, bombs targets, and supports infantry more than a year later and this small but well-trained force will be of great use in the counteroffensive, providing support to ground troops and destroying targets of opportunity.

Of almost equal importance are the many types of drones flying over the battlefield. Now effectively used by both sides as artillery spotters and fire adjusters, accurate artillery strikes can be brought to bear in a matter of minutes now, making the open battlefield an even more dangerous place than it once was.

Small armed drones will drop charges on individual infantry positions while larger UAVs like the Bayraktar TB2s will search and hunt for easy targets like slow-moving or stationary radar stations.

Training

The weapons used are extremely important and can give Ukraine a significant edge, but the glue that binds all this together is the training undertaken, not just by infantry units but also by senior officers in the use of combined arms � the ability to use all these weapons together as one single entity, each reinforcing the abilities of the other, to provide a cohesive, whole military.

NATO members have been training cadres of officers, non-commissioned officers, and soldiers alike in the West�s way of conducting high-intensity offensive military operations.

Part of that has focused on air defence as Ukrainian units have learned to make the most of the vast array of complex air defence systems at their disposal.

This has already been effective in defending the capital, Kyiv, from a recent onslaught by Kinzhal hypersonic missiles and Shahed-136 drones, with the vast majority shot down.

A mix of complex weapons from all over the world will require the adept handling of logistics if the offensive is to keep up its momentum and supply and repair are vital for any advance to be successful. The Ukrainian military will have its work cut out for it. Russian forces have had months to prepare for the series of battles that could very well define the nature of the war.

Both sides realise what is at stake, and Russia will not give up its ground easily, despite talk of low morale among Russian forces.

SOURCE: AL JAZEERA

Edgar Quintero fucked around with this message at 05:09 on May 26, 2023

# ? May 26, 2023 05:06

Comstar: Apr 20, 2007; Are you happy now?

Cpt_Obvious posted:

You can't just grab a tactical nuke and shove it in your humvee.

I tell you this is all a remake of Kellys Heroes.

We need an all star cast and start burning some bridges.

# ? May 26, 2023 09:09

fatherboxx: Mar 25, 2013

Look who is getting into acceptance stage after hangover

https://tass.ru/politika/17848239

quote:

Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of the Russian Security Council, told reporters during a visit to Vietnam that the "military conflict" in Ukraine is "for a very long time."

"It's all for decades, probably. This is a new reality, new living conditions," Medvedev said (quoted by TASS), adding that if the government in Ukraine does not change, "there will be three years of truce, two years of conflict - and everything will happen again."

# ? May 26, 2023 09:17

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Comstar posted:

I tell you this is all a remake of Kellys Heroes.

We need an all star cast and start burning some bridges.

At the beginning the protagonist interrogates a Russian officer except he's already so drunk that they will have to wait for him to sober up to be able to talk.

# ? May 26, 2023 09:27

DarklyDreaming: Apr 4, 2009; Fun scary

fatherboxx posted:

Look who is getting into acceptance stage after hangover

https://tass.ru/politika/17848239

Did he go to Vietnam to say that just for maximum irony?

# ? May 26, 2023 13:57

BIG FLUFFY DOG: Feb 16, 2011; On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

fatherboxx posted:

Look who is getting into acceptance stage after hangover

https://tass.ru/politika/17848239

America actually managed to topple Iraq and Afghanistan�s governments in a couple weeks before getting stuck in quagmires there. Yes I know the second one came back

# ? May 26, 2023 14:04

Ynglaur: Oct 9, 2013; The Malta Conference, anyone?

OddObserver posted:

... Too bad Western Ground+based Air Defense production is like one strategic system per quarter.

GBAD may not be as sustainable long term--that remains to be seen. They are certainly faster to deploy.

It's unclear to me if Western defense companies are increasing the rate of production of either GBAD platforms or their ammunition. So much of the publicly-disclosed commentary is about 155 m production. Heck, we don't even know what 1200mm mortar stockpiles are like right now.

# ? May 26, 2023 17:16

poor waif: Apr 8, 2007; Kaboom

Ynglaur posted:

Heck, we don't even know what 1200mm mortar stockpiles are like right now.

The advantage of the 1.2 meter mortar is that you don't need very many of them to make a big impact.

# ? May 26, 2023 17:24

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Ynglaur posted:

So much of the publicly-disclosed commentary is about 155 m production.

There's going to be a few bottlenecks in delivering those 155000mm shells from factory to the front though.

# ? May 26, 2023 17:27

Dandywalken: Feb 11, 2014

The big boppers...

# ? May 26, 2023 17:27

Slashrat: Jun 6, 2011; YOSPOS

Nenonen posted:

There's going to be a few bottlenecks in delivering those 155000mm shells from factory to the front though.

Call Bill for a solution to that

# ? May 26, 2023 17:36

Mederlock: Jun 23, 2012; You won't recognize Canada when I'm through with it; Grimey Drawer

Did someone call for the Schwerer Gustav? :freep:

# ? May 26, 2023 17:42

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Mederlock posted:

Did someone call for the Schwerer Gustav?

I mean it did help in the capture of Sevastopol once

# ? May 26, 2023 17:55

Ynglaur: Oct 9, 2013; The Malta Conference, anyone?

I'm not editing my post. :colbert:

# ? May 26, 2023 18:08

OAquinas: Jan 27, 2008; Biden has sat immobile on the Iron Throne of America. He is the Master of Malarkey by the will of the gods, and master of a million votes by the might of his inexhaustible calamari.

Mederlock posted:

Did someone call for the Schwerer Gustav?

Oh, so now Germany is handing out the good toys

# ? May 26, 2023 18:12

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# ? Jun 1, 2024 18:26

ummel: Jun 17, 2002; <3 Lowtax; Fun Shoe

Mederlock posted:

Did someone call for the Schwerer Gustav?

The type of machine only unrestricted access to amphetamines can get you

# ? May 26, 2023 18:18

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