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Red
Apr 15, 2003

Yeah, great at getting us into Wawa.
TGT is a dividend... something. I'm blanking on the name, but it's part of a group of stocks that annually increase their dividend. Right?

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Sokani
Jul 20, 2006



Bison
Aristocrat?

E: They are indeed on the list

Agronox
Feb 4, 2005

Agronox posted:

Anyone doing anything of note now that debt ceiling shenanigans are starting to come into full focus? I put on some index shorts but haven't actually sold any of my longs.

VIX at 18 feels low here.

Update on this: closed the shorts days ago when they were profitable, but since then added some puts which I sold at a decent loss today. So, netting everything, minor loss, or, cheap insurance that didn't pay out.

I'm surprised this went down as smoothly as it did given the composition of the House. Oh well, moving on...

notwithoutmyanus
Mar 17, 2009
I've been more or less doing calls or puts depending on the day. everything has been very profitable but I don't get a direction out of the market at the moment. Especially with this from today which screams recession/stagflation. https://twitter.com/financialjuice/status/1664324962717696001

FistEnergy
Nov 3, 2000

DAY CREW: WORKING HARD

Fun Shoe
I started positions in DG and TGT today. Too big a discount to pass them up; they're not going anywhere.

drk
Jan 16, 2005

FistEnergy posted:

I started positions in DG and TGT today. Too big a discount to pass them up; they're not going anywhere.

Assuming TGT isn't going back to it's covid era highs any time soon, what's the 2023 price target here? 150? 160?

Red
Apr 15, 2003

Yeah, great at getting us into Wawa.

Sokani posted:

Aristocrat?

E: They are indeed on the list

YES!

FistEnergy
Nov 3, 2000

DAY CREW: WORKING HARD

Fun Shoe

drk posted:

Assuming TGT isn't going back to it's covid era highs any time soon, what's the 2023 price target here? 150? 160?

150-155 seems reasonable

notwithoutmyanus
Mar 17, 2009
Options Gamma data actually shows 180 by eoy if we don't crash but sub-90 if we do.

Syrinxx
Mar 28, 2002

Death is whimsical today

I opened a position in VZ literally the day before Amazon announces plans for a mobile service and VZ cratered 5%

I give up

e: I also picked up SQM before Chile announced it would nationalize lithium mining and the stock got trashed :haw:

Follow me for unlucky investment advice

Syrinxx fucked around with this message at 15:35 on Jun 2, 2023

Subvisual Haze
Nov 22, 2003

The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.
VZ sounds like an overcorrection. I think I'll sell some puts on that expecting a reversion.

LLCoolJD
Dec 8, 2007

Musk threatens the inorganic promotion of left-wing ideology that had been taking place on the platform

Block me for being an unironic DeSantis fan, too!

Shear Modulus posted:

Conservatives never shopped at target anyway. It was always the kerry voter version of walmart.

Target and Walmart demographics always seemed more split on income than on politics IMHO.

Subvisual Haze
Nov 22, 2003

The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.
Target shoppers are overwhelmingly upper-middle class whites who loudly proclaim how much they care about diversity.
WalMart shoppers are extremely diverse and also somehow have unironically white supremacist viewpoints.

The duality of...something

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

Subvisual Haze posted:

Target shoppers are overwhelmingly upper-middle class

I don't think the upper middle class' organic store brand mac and cheese and discount Tupperware needs are driving Target's bottom line, but it love to hear more

Subvisual Haze
Nov 22, 2003

The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.
Oops, the upper-middle classes of the parts of America that God forgot. You are correct that in the blessed places Target is purely a middle-middle class phenomena.

mrmcd
Feb 22, 2003

Pictured: The only good cop (a fictional one).

Whole Foods or that insane grocery store in LA that had like $25 smoothies are the stores for conspicuously broadcasting your extra disposable income and class markers. Target's just, like, the slightly nicer version of Wal-Mart.

ranbo das
Oct 16, 2013


Target is Wal-Mart for Temporarily Embarrassed Millionaires

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

Williams Sonoma, Crate and Barrel, Whole Foods (plus your hyper local organic artisanal groceries) are the Target of the upper middle class

Target is a vacation from Walmart; both of these are pretty solidly middle class establishments

Dollar General and Dollar Tree are bottom tier, where the people who live in the food deserts shop, this is a pretty well documented fact that this is their target market

mrmcd posted:

Whole Foods or that insane grocery store in LA that had like $25 smoothies are the stores for conspicuously broadcasting your extra disposable income and class markers. Target's just, like, the slightly nicer version of Wal-Mart.

This guy gets it

HCFJ
Nov 30, 2009

WILL AMOUNT TO NOTHING IN LIFE.

Hadlock posted:

Williams Sonoma, Crate and Barrel, Whole Foods (plus your hyper local organic artisanal groceries) are the Target of the upper middle class

Target is a vacation from Walmart; both of these are pretty solidly middle class establishments

Dollar General and Dollar Tree are bottom tier, where the people who live in the food deserts shop, this is a pretty well documented fact that this is their target market

This guy gets it

Half the walmarts i've seen are in everything deserts

Red
Apr 15, 2003

Yeah, great at getting us into Wawa.
^^^ This ^^^

Wal-Mart steadily runs all the small businesses out of town until they're all that's left, and they can only offer a handful of managerial-level positions and a ton of part-time work.

Subvisual Haze posted:

Target shoppers are overwhelmingly upper-middle class whites who loudly proclaim how much they care about diversity.
WalMart shoppers are extremely diverse and also somehow have unironically white supremacist viewpoints.

The duality of...something

Target is where surburban people go to buy anything and everything.

Wal-Mart is where rural people go to spend an afternoon or evening and/or to buy anything and everything.

Some small towns have a Wal-Mart and not much else.

Splinter
Jul 4, 2003
Cowabunga!

Red posted:

Wal-Mart is where rural people go to spend an afternoon or evening and/or to buy anything and everything.

Some small towns have a Wal-Mart and not much else.

Yup. I lived in a smaller college town of ~10k for a couple years while my SO was in grad school. Walmart and a regional chain grocery that wasn't any higher quality than Walmart were the only options. Nearest Target was around 80 miles away in the closest major city. Between my town and the Target there were 2 or 3 smaller towns that also had Walmarts. This county went blue both Trump elections but everyone still shopped at Walmart.

e: before this I hadn't shopped at Walmart more than a couple times in my life. After this my opinion is Target is just an overpriced version of Walmart, as the quality isn't much different, and if I had to go to one I'd try to find a Walmart over Target for most things.

Splinter fucked around with this message at 05:23 on Jun 4, 2023

Red
Apr 15, 2003

Yeah, great at getting us into Wawa.

Splinter posted:

Yup. I lived in a smaller college town of ~10k for a couple years while my SO was in grad school. Walmart and a regional chain grocery that wasn't any higher quality than Walmart were the only options. Nearest Target was around 80 miles away in the closest major city. Between my town and the Target there were 2 or 3 smaller towns that also had Walmarts. This county went blue both Trump elections but everyone still shopped at Walmart.

e: before this I hadn't shopped at Walmart more than a couple times in my life. After this my opinion is Target is just an overpriced version of Walmart, as the quality isn't much different, and if I had to go to one I'd try to find a Walmart over Target for most things.

I can't decide if WMT is going to be a reliable retail stock forever, or if the bill will eventually come due. Wal-Marts exist as the only place to go in so many crippled towns and communities that, eventually, the working poor they've crushed will just cease to be able to support the stores.

Link: https://www.nj.com/business/2023/04/walmart-store-closings-2023-see-the-full-list.html

Wal-Mart did have a significant number of locations close. Granted, a lot of the locations in the link above are urban (and I went to the weird DC location), but they cite 'financial losses' (and the theft thing turned out to be bullshit).

Maybe it's better to cheer for Wal-Mart to eat poo poo instead of investing in the bad guys we think will make a ton of money.

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

Red posted:

I can't decide if WMT is going to be a reliable retail stock forever, or if the bill will eventually come due. Wal-Marts exist as the only place to go in so many crippled towns and communities that, eventually, the working poor they've crushed will just cease to be able to support the stores.

My preferred phrase for this phenomenon is "strip mined the opportunity from the place" but your flowery language is acceptable as well

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

As of 2022, Walmart sells over 25% of America's groceries. Target sells 3.5%. Costco, Kroger, Sam's Club, and Publix all have larger market shares for groceries than Target. source. It's safe to say that Walmart dominates the market for groceries for both lower and middle class shoppers, and there are far more Walmart stores in the US (Walmart Supercenters. 3,561 ; Walmart Discount Stores. 361 ; Neighborhood Markets. 677 ; Convenience Store. 8) than Targets (1,954 Target stores) which suggests there are about twice as many local areas with a walmart and no target than areas where both exist.

Walmart has 6.3% of the entire retail sales in the US. https://www.demandsage.com/walmart-statistics/ Amazon has 37.8%, but Walmart is #2. I can't find a number for Target's total market share, but it's a leader in "department store" sales, whatever that means.
Walmart 2022 revenue: $572.754B
Target 2022 revenue: $109.12B

Investopedia says that the middle class is about 50% of the population, while the lower income segment is about 29% and the upper income segment is 21%.
https://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0912/which-income-class-are-you.aspx
Based on that, and the sales numbers, I don't think it's possible that all or even most of Walmart's revenues come from the lower income segment. My guess is that Walmart accounts for more retail sales, both generally and for groceries, for the entire lower 79% of America, compared to Target.

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

Walmart generally has 20% or more of their floor space devoted to grocery; Target feels like, well it varies by store but 0-15% id guess. Their produce section is often bananas apples and oranges same as you'd see at a corner grocery trying to meet the bare minimum to sell alcohol in that area. Eggs or raw meat is pretty hard to find at a target.

FistEnergy
Nov 3, 2000

DAY CREW: WORKING HARD

Fun Shoe
Target is a much better option for clothing. It also feels more upscale and less depressing than Walmart.

Agronox
Feb 4, 2005

FistEnergy posted:

Target is a much better option for clothing. It also feels more upscale and less depressing than Walmart.

Well said, I feel the same way, almost exactly. Walmart makes me despair.

Actually have TGT on one of my watchlists but I don't want to own any retail unless it's cheap (and I'd view TGT as more like "reasonable" right now).

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

It doesn't get very cold here but every 3-4 years I'll go there to top off on winter gloves and scarves and hats, or pick up an emergency pair of pants. In the last year I bought a pair of swim trunks and flip flops from Walmart. The flip flops were actually somehow worse than I expected, they did not make it back home with me.

I think we're still figuring out the equilibrium point for formula retail, seems like it's leveled off, and people are getting more wary of buying stuff on Amazon because of counterfeits

shame on an IGA
Apr 8, 2005

Target is for people who are more than an hour from costco

Baddog
May 12, 2001

Leperflesh posted:

Amazon has 37.8%

This is actually pretty Incredible.

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

Leperflesh posted:

As of 2022,
Investopedia says that the middle class is about 50% of the population, while the lower income segment is about 29% and the upper income segment is 21%.
https://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0912/which-income-class-are-you.aspx
Based on that,

According to that math, roughly 33% of the middle class is upper middle class which is ~16.7% of the total population. I don't think they spend tremendously more at target than the bottom two thirds of the middle class, they just save more and live in marginally better homes and drive slightly more reliable cars

That investopedia article appears to be leaning hard on this pew research publication

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/04/20/how-the-american-middle-class-has-changed-in-the-past-five-decades/

Elephanthead
Sep 11, 2008


Toilet Rascal

Baddog posted:

This is actually pretty Incredible.

6 Walmarts lol. Can’t buy delivery trucks warehouses and semi trucks fast enough. The real anything anywhere all at once.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

shame on an IGA posted:

Target is for people who are more than an hour from costco

Costco is what people here seem to think Target is. It tilts shockingly heavily towards the six figgy demo.

$5 rotisserie chicken remains unbeatable through it all.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Baddog posted:

This is actually pretty Incredible.

Right? Casually sitting at 6x Walmart's market share. It's completely passe these days to comment on the dominance of "e-commerce" or tech megacorps but holy poo poo, that is nuts.

Hadlock
Nov 9, 2004

Apple is supposed to announce their VR headset today, which the VR thread seems to think is going to blow the meta (facebook) quest 3 out of the water

Is there any playbook for apple (new) product release day stock burps

quote:

Apple's ‌WWDC 2023‌ keynote event is set to be held at 10:00 a.m. Pacific Time on Monday, June 5.

https://www.wired.com/story/apple-vr-headset-sent-rivals-scrambling/

quote:

RUMORS THAT APPLE will announce a virtual reality headset at its Worldwide Developers Conference on Monday have sent competitors into a frenzy. Meta announced its new Meta Quest 3 on Thursday. Lenovo released its latest ThinkReality VRX headset. S

Hadlock fucked around with this message at 08:42 on Jun 5, 2023

LLCoolJD
Dec 8, 2007

Musk threatens the inorganic promotion of left-wing ideology that had been taking place on the platform

Block me for being an unironic DeSantis fan, too!


I can immediately decipher CNBC's "concerned older dude" or the "toothy-grinned junior trader" but this Skittle-haired woman is a new one. Help me read the tea leaves. How is Monday going to turn out?

Hadlock posted:

Apple is supposed to announce their VR headset today, which the VR thread seems to think is going to blow the meta (facebook) quest 3 out of the water

Cool, but Meta fumbled its VR goggles and, regardless, it still seems like a niche product category. Plus they all have a slightly creepy aspect to them. Google Glass at least had a slightly more discreet look to it, maybe Apple can tap into that.

Sand Monster
Apr 13, 2008

LLCoolJD posted:

I can immediately decipher CNBC's "concerned older dude"...

Is that the one that looks like Bruce Dern?

Only registered members can see post attachments!

LLCoolJD
Dec 8, 2007

Musk threatens the inorganic promotion of left-wing ideology that had been taking place on the platform

Block me for being an unironic DeSantis fan, too!

Sand Monster posted:

Is that the one that looks like Bruce Dern?



:lol: sort of yeah

DapperDraculaDeer
Aug 4, 2007

Shut up, Nick! You're not Twilight.

Hadlock posted:

Apple is supposed to announce their VR headset today, which the VR thread seems to think is going to blow the meta (facebook) quest 3 out of the water

Is there any playbook for apple (new) product release day stock burps

https://www.wired.com/story/apple-vr-headset-sent-rivals-scrambling/

Is anyone even excited for this thing? The VR hype peaked years ago and per the norm it did not live up to it. I just cant see this making a difference after everything that happened with Meta.

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shame on an IGA
Apr 8, 2005

Nobody's going to be buying the apple headset for games or even much content creation but it will sell like hotcakes as a professional services marketing tool if it's shiny, comfortable and not too stupid looking on the user.

$3k is peanuts for say an architecture firm to make their client feel shiny and futuristic in a pitch presentation and they'll only be wearing it for a minute or two

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