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R.I.P. Surgalign Holdings (SRGA) stock as it goes into chapter 11.... oh well! (I didn't pay $9.71/share - it reverse split) That said SRGA wasn't a one trick pony - it had several products that had FDA clearance and were in use. Revenue in 2021 and 2022 was $90 and $81 million. Unfortunately it also suffered from high operating expenses of $200 and $119 million for those years as well. Cost cutting came too late! Another little issue was the purchase of the Coflex device for $150 million of cash in 2019, only to sell it this year for $17 million in an effort to make some cash. Kinda of like taking your grandfathers pocketwatch to the pawn shop. That said, I'm still putting this on my watchlist after bankruptcy (and hopefully a new CEO) and see where the rest of the assets wind up. HOLO Portal AI as well as the patents do have value. Wish I had bought Sigilon Therapeutics (SGTX) instead - being bought by Eli Lilly - a 460% gain since last week! Hope somebody bought some! Last week bought 4750 shares of Mereo BioPharma (MREO) @$1.25 & 168 shares of Inplay Oil (IPO) @$2.47
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Jul 6, 2023 06:45
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ARTPUP posted:Wish I had bought Sigilon Therapeutics (SGTX) instead - being bought by Eli Lilly - a 460% gain since last week! Hope somebody bought some! That one's really interesting. the merger press pelease posted:Under the terms of the definitive agreement, Lilly will commence a tender offer to acquire all outstanding shares of Sigilon for a purchase price of $14.92 per share in cash (an aggregate of approximately $34.6 million) payable at closing, plus one non-tradeable contingent value right ("CVR") per share that entitles the holder to receive up to an additional $111.64 per share in cash, for a total potential consideration of up to $126.56 per share in cash without interest (an aggregate of up to approximately $309.6 million excluding shares held by Lilly). I've never seen such a large CVR in comparison to the definite merger consideration. I also have absolutely zero pharma knowledge, so I've got nothing to do there other than watch what happens with curiosity...
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Jul 6, 2023 14:31
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I know that pharma is going strong in Boston so as tech declines, maybe it’ll suck up engineers and other tech workers and grow some more. I ain’t making that bet, though.
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Jul 6, 2023 14:42
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since when does zero knowledge about the industry mean you can't gamble on it
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Jul 6, 2023 15:33
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Anybody know why NWARF (Norwegian Air) looks like it hasn't been traded at all since last Friday?
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Jul 6, 2023 18:15
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Shear Modulus posted:since when does zero knowledge about the industry mean you can't gamble on it That is a goddamn thread title, there
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Jul 6, 2023 18:24
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Skunkduster posted:Anybody know why NWARF (Norwegian Air) looks like it hasn't been traded at all since last Friday? I think you're looking at the wrong ticker? There appears to be plenty of volume on the correct ticker: https://live.euronext.com/en/product/equities/NO0010196140-XOSL
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Jul 6, 2023 18:58
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Shear Modulus posted:since when does zero knowledge about the industry mean you can't gamble on it
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Jul 6, 2023 19:15
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drk posted:I think you're looking at the wrong ticker? It just seems odd that all the other tickers I looked at show normal trading up to last Friday, but nothing this week. Did something change with the stock that they all stopped tracking it? I have some shares in my Etrade account and it is still showing the value at last Friday's price.
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Jul 6, 2023 19:38
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NWARF is some weird OTC version of the stock? It appears to generally be extremely thinly traded or not traded at all compared to the primary listing. I'd find out if you can dump it and buy the real shares.
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Jul 6, 2023 23:22
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Looking ahead to next week some earnings coming up on bank stocks next Friday. Thinking of selling some puts against $C Citibank as that stock seems pretty well valued.
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Jul 7, 2023 20:21
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entertaining, educational interview (podcast) with 2 guys from Eisman's team from The Big Short: https://www.capitalallocators.com/podcast/big-shorts-and-big-longs/ includes a brief glimpse inside Citadel
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Jul 8, 2023 00:34
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Subvisual Haze posted:Looking ahead to next week some earnings coming up on bank stocks next Friday. Thinking of selling some puts against $C Citibank as that stock seems pretty well valued. I find citi totally intriguing (see my prior posts on it), and am nearly drooling after its strong price resistance @ 45 and aswath's blog on it: https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2023/05/good-bad-banks-and-good-bad-investments.html but I can't quite pull the trigger yet because they bungled the banamex sale (now IPO'ing later) and I think they'll get roasted for it at the earnings call. plus some of their big money clients maybe (??) started using t-bills more in the past Q instead of cash deposits (citi relies on big accounts more than say, WFC/BAC). I'm just kinda spooked. so I kinda want them to take a hit or be neutral at earnings and then buy 2-3 days later? I dunno i guess if that's the case maybe I should write puts too!
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Jul 8, 2023 00:39
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pmchem posted:
Writing puts is fun!
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Jul 8, 2023 01:48
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What is y'all's strategy for writing puts? How do you choose a strike price and date?
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Jul 8, 2023 01:59
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I've been looking for something to do with Citi. I have a handful of shares and missed good points to sell and good points to re-invest, so now I'm less than 1% away from the price I bought at and feel like an idiot that I missed out on those opportunities by not paying any attention to its price for several weeks  I want to buy more because it looks decent on paper, but I can't bring myself to actually spend the money for reasons I can't quite explain Also, what's a good resource for learning more about options? I feel kind of intimidated by them, but I can't hide behind my inexperience forever
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Jul 8, 2023 02:14
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MetaJew posted:What is y'all's strategy for writing puts? How do you choose a strike price and date? Guess. Be prepared to own 100 shares at a 10% loss in a month
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Jul 8, 2023 02:24
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MetaJew posted:What is y'all's strategy for writing puts? How do you choose a strike price and date? If I'm just fishing for premium on a really frothy stock like TSLA I'll gamble on 1-2 week expiration. Around earning time like with $C coming up I'll usually sell it ~2 weeks out from the earning announcement date. The stock might change in price rapidly the day or two immediately after earnings, but my theory is by 2 weeks usually the price will have settled at a new normal. For stocks that don't move around a lot and have pretty low IV/premium, the standard advice offered by Thetagang is to sell puts ~45 days out. As for strike price I guess it depends on how I feel about the current price. If I feel the stock is currently undervalued I might set my strike price right at the money to maximize premium or get assigned the stock at a good price. If I think the stock is valued about right I'll usually set the strike price out of the money around -0.20-0.30 delta. Also I usually buy to close the position early once the option has gained 50-70% of it's value back.
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Jul 8, 2023 03:03
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MetaJew posted:What is y'all's strategy for writing puts? How do you choose a strike price and date? I usually sell short strangles ( -1C, -1P) the day before earnings on a given symbol, at a strike price between 10-16 Delta on each side, with a DTE between 45-60 days (ideally on the monthly expiry for maximum liquidity). I hold until I get 50% profit, or until 21 DTE. Since earnings reports are normally boring as gently caress, this alone usually does the trick, but sometimes exciting things happen and you have to leg out of a side, roll it, or buy a long option on that side to defend the position. This has been my big money making strategy this year, outside of long-term holds on dividend ETFs. If you do solely writing puts, I would only do so:
Of course, if you're selling your put specifically as a means of buying stock at a favorable price, then pick the price you favor. https://a.co/d/7qz7qqX is the book that gave me the confidence to start trying this, and I've gotten some good mileage out of the strategy. https://optionstrat.com/ is my go to for visualizing position P/Ls. I'm currently looking into strategies to utilize Ichimoku charts and options open interest as indicators to sweeten positions further and maybe even break my cursed luck when choosing directional positions, but that's still an experiment in progress. BurntCornMuffin fucked around with this message at 04:31 on Jul 8, 2023 |
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Jul 8, 2023 03:34
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BurntCornMuffin posted:I hold until I get 50% profit, or until 21 DTE. And maybe I'm misunderstanding how these work, but don't you have to own the underlying stock before you're allowed to sell the call or put? Or do the brokers let you borrow that, as well, for some fee? Because if they let you sell calls and puts for free then that is weird why am I not taking advantage of that why didn't I get this memo
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Jul 8, 2023 11:38
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Calls you need the stock or margin. Puts you need to have the cash or margin.
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Jul 8, 2023 13:00
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MetaJew posted:What is y'all's strategy for writing puts? How do you choose a strike price and date? Really happy this is being discussed as I've been interested in some short premium strategies recently for my newly growing after-tax investments. I've been looking at the Wheel/triple income strategy as it aligns with my general buy and hold philosophy. Most of my investments are boring etfs on indexes and I never time the market. For the wheel you only write puts on stuff you don't mind owning, which for me Id like that to be index etfs, solid utilities, or blue chips. Write the OTM put that has a delta of ~.2-.35. I'm being drawn to the weeklies 10-14 days out although the base strategy recommends monthlies 30-45 DTE. I FEEL like getting a 1% absolute ROI on a 10-14 DTE rinsing/repeating is more efficient but I do not know yet. I think it could be viable in a bullish market to continually maintain a portfolio of 5-10 stocks that you are writing these on and with those numbers you should be assigned 1 or 2 in 10. Then you flip over to covered calls until they're gone. Biggest risk is a giant drop in the underlying that you never recover back with premiums. Another thing that was interesting to me is that at Fidelity you are earning the MM rate (4.75% apr) while you hold the short puts so kind of have a floor return there provided you're not assigned. Still just paper trading for now but looking to start writing stuff in the next few weeks.
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Jul 8, 2023 13:47
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ah remember this blast from the past? AHT:  from june 2021: pmchem posted:AHT and IVR are exercises in bagholding at this point, look at their P/B, market cap, and assets / liabilities histories on macrotrends today: https://archive.ph/qxJKr quote:Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc. expects to return 19 hotels to lenders in cities including Las Vegas and Atlanta, declining to pour more cash into the properties, which are part of a $982 million mortgage pool that missed a repayment deadline in June.
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Jul 8, 2023 15:03
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Here is an article with some graphs explaining how time decay works differently for ATM vs OTM options. https://www.myoptionsedge.com/time-decay-does-not-affect-options-the-same-way This is why its ok to close short OTM puts early. Although I gotta admit I tend to hang onto 'em till expiration, just because the ones I sell aren't very long duration. It does take significantly longer to get that last 10-15 cents though.
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Jul 8, 2023 17:09
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Love Stole the Day posted:50% of what cost basis (or % of portfolio, if you don't want to say) are you putting into each of these short strangles? I'm selling naked, meaning I don't own the stock. Instead, margin is used to secure the position: I aim to tie up no more than 10% of my account's net liquid in buying power per position, leaving between 10%—20% of the account value in cash at all times. I buy back the strangle at 50% of the price I originally sold it (the price of the option decreases as people's fears about earnings, quantified as IV, decrease, and also thanks to Theta decay). Visualizing the P/L graph in Optionstrat looks like this:  The benefit of short strangles over iron condors is that you make a great deal more from wider positions than you ever could with an iron condor, overall increasing your chances of success. Even though the potential for infinite loss exists, you can get so wide as to make that a very unrealistic possibility, and regular (as in maybe twice or thrice daily) check-ins to give yourself an opportunity to respond to adverse moves mitigates the risk even further. Just don't get greedy: close at 50% or at 21DTE, whatever happens first, because at that point the risk VS reward starts to shift out of your favor. The ability to do naked short options does depend the broker, but you definitely need to have a margin account. Some may require you to take a little quiz or check a "I certify that I know what I am doing and won't sue you" checkbox as well, because a naked short option does have infinite downside risk. While they make less and have a narrower profit zone and therefore decreased chance of success, Iron Condors do have the advantage of defined risk, so you can trade them on cash accounts and have much fewer requirements to participate in. Tastyworks is probably the easiest broker to do naked short options with because their entire trading philosophy is very premium-oriented and their tools, education, and accessibility to options reflect this. To do it, have a margin account and push the "don't sue us" button for options.
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Jul 8, 2023 17:14
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Just a general thought on options, there is definitely a human-nature psychological aversion to certain types of risk. People, even experienced investors, will often overpay when they are reducing risk to their assets (but love buying long shot lottery tickets). There is a bias to protect what you have. So in broad terms, I believe being on the selling side of options is the more profitable side. And since the economy/market also has an overall bias towards growth, selling puts is generally better than selling calls.
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Jul 8, 2023 17:23
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Isn't the max loss of a short put the strike * 100 * contracts? So if I wrote a strike $20 put and the stock became worthless I'd be out $2k per contract less the premiums received? At least for the onset, I plan to have a 1:1 ratio between cash in account and what's needed if assigned. Maybe I'm missing where the loss is infinite.
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Jul 8, 2023 17:34
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If you sell the put then it's unlimited because the stock price could go to infinity hypothetically and you'd have to sell shares to someone at the strike price you sold at.
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Jul 8, 2023 17:57
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Artonos posted:If you sell the put then it's unlimited because the stock price could go to infinity hypothetically and you'd have to sell shares to someone at the strike price you sold at. Wouldn't that be a naked call? Stock goes high, put expires worthless.
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Jul 8, 2023 18:01
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TraderStav posted:Isn't the max loss of a short put the strike * 100 * contracts? So if I wrote a strike $20 put and the stock became worthless I'd be out $2k per contract less the premiums received? Not everyone keeps the necessary cash on hand to cover sold puts though. You can instead use margin accounts to sell puts beyond the ability of your immediate cash on hand to cover. This is referred to as a naked put or an unsecured put. Your brokerage will usually set the amount you're allowed to extend yourself with the assumption that your other stocks held in your margin account are collateral and could be sold to generate the needed cash if necessary (or they could extend you a short term loan of funds). The actual degree you can do this is set by your broker based on very complicated formulas that update day to day. Obviously the big risk is that everything crashes at once and you get margin called. There is probably a relatively safe in between zone where you only use a reasonable percentage of your margin equity. The temptation for degenerate gamblers though will be to use every drop of leverage they can to maximize gains and pile on risk to the point where their whole account can blow up.
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Jul 8, 2023 18:07
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Artonos posted:If you sell the put then it's unlimited because the stock price could go to infinity hypothetically and you'd have to sell shares to someone at the strike price you sold at. That is selling calls. With selling puts, you have to buy the stock at the strike when someone puts it to you.
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Jul 8, 2023 18:07
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Subvisual Haze posted:If you have the cash on hand necessary to cover assignment this is referred to as a cash secured put. Pretty safe, and the worst case scenario is that you get stuck holding the shares of the underlying stock at your strike price. Right, if I move forward I will eventually move to some percentage of cash left in the account to better leverage the account. The 4.75% MM helps take the sting out of making sure every dollar is productive though.
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Jul 8, 2023 18:10
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Thanks for explaining this! What's the horizon you're using, on average? In other words, how long does it take for you to get in and get out, when it works? I've been doing a "good enough" job with just classic buy-side stock picking over the past 4 months: 17 realized winners, 1 unrealized loser (am holding out of stubbornness) with a median return of 5.6% and a median horizon of 2 weeks. My bets are range between $3k and $6k so far, and I'm slowly ramping up and compounding the casino's money as I dip my toes deeper into this shark tank... but if there is a less risky strategy to use then maybe I should try it out. As for your strategy, how exactly do you get out of a bet when it goes south? I imagine that you can't just hand off your OTM puts/calls to someone else, right? Especially in a reasonable amount of time, if the underlying's volume isn't ridiculously high? I'd imagine that you can't really do that strategy on mid-large cap companies, but rather only on extra-large cap companies.
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Jul 8, 2023 19:23
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Love Stole the Day posted:Thanks for explaining this! Getting in the day before earnings, when the IV is absolutely juiced, I can sometimes get out by the end of the next day once it all dumps off. More frequently, though, I find myself hanging on for a week or two. Love Stole the Day posted:I've been doing a "good enough" job with just classic buy-side stock picking over the past 4 months: 17 realized winners, 1 unrealized loser (am holding out of stubbornness) with a median return of 5.6% and a median horizon of 2 weeks. My bets are range between $3k and $6k so far, and I'm slowly ramping up and compounding the casino's money as I dip my toes deeper into this shark tank... but if there is a less risky strategy to use then maybe I should try it out. As far as management goes, there's a few aspects to that. First of all, to maximize underlying volume, I only deal with the monthly contracts, because those have way more volume than weeklies. A rule of thumb I've been following is if there is more than 10% difference between the ask and sell price of the option, it's not liquid enough to enter. If I do observe a big move and feel that the position might not be profitable by the 21 DTE mark, there's a few options:
One thing to remember is that when you're short options, time is your friend: absent a price move, your position can only get better, so resist the temptation to manage too early. This is one reason that I absolutely love OptionStrat, because it can be used to visualize the P/L of a position before expiry. I hold off on touching anything unless it's not going to be profitable at the 21 DTE mark at the current price, or if I observe that a side is absolutely tapped out. Love Stole the Day posted:I imagine that you can't just hand off your OTM puts/calls to someone else, right? Especially in a reasonable amount of time, if the underlying's volume isn't ridiculously high? I'd imagine that you can't really do that strategy on mid-large cap companies, but rather only on extra-large cap companies. Remember that the goal is to be OTM, and they're still pretty liquid at 21 DTE, when you really want to close by. ITM are even easier to close, though you want to avoid that as best as you can. My account is still small enough that I've not felt comfortable going for the extra-large caps for reals, but the paper trades have been favorable. Earnings reports being boring is universally a pretty safe thing to bet on most of the time, as it turns out.
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Jul 9, 2023 05:55
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Another question about this: if the window you set with the short strangle is wide, then who on Earth will take the other side of those positions? Because if a bet goes bad, how can you expect to close the position? I don't see why anyone would take those potentially infinite amounts of loss off your hands. That part doesn't make any sense to me, but it makes sense otherwise. From your answer, it sounds like it's just a matter of waiting a couple days for someone to take your offer. Also, from your image it looks like you get an 8% return for that one example as long as the underlying's price stays within the window. Is that a typical amount of return for your bets? Because you said 50% earlier. And how often have these won out for you in practice, and how have you been able to survive the losing scenarios?
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Jul 10, 2023 17:44
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Small update to what I posted about earlier around an enormous systemic house building trend in Canada whereby all old malls are becoming high density housing. How one capitalizes on this, if one can, I remain unsure. Some folks going to be made very wealthy by these trends, tho while some of these malls are held by REITs, many would be small private companies and pension funds. https://www.thestar.com/business/20...ing-crisis.html quote:For more than 60 years, a beige and brown — and bland, by today’s standards — one-storey shopping centre has stood nestled at the corner of Highway 427 and Dundas Street West in Etobicoke. Set on 32 acres, the mall hosts flagship tenants like Winners, an abundance of mom-and-pop shops and a food court. Maybe more of a general story around growth in Canada is gonzo right now.
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Jul 10, 2023 17:50
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Love Stole the Day posted:Another question about this: if the window you set with the short strangle is wide, then who on Earth will take the other side of those positions? Because if a bet goes bad, how can you expect to close the position? I don't see why anyone would take those potentially infinite amounts of loss off your hands. That part doesn't make any sense to me, but it makes sense otherwise. From your answer, it sounds like it's just a matter of waiting a couple days for someone to take your offer. You will never know the motivations of the other side, and they will never know yours. The other side inherits neither your profits nor your losses: to them, they just bought or sold an option just like you did. When you sell your initial entry, it might be some dumb redditor speculating on the other side. When you buy your exit, it you might be buying from the same dumb redditor who now wants to cash in their longshot gambling position that defied all odds and mooned, or maybe a day trader who wants to get their rocks off on a high risk commission, or maybe somebody else is buying your poo poo as part of another options spread. In any case, liquidity has rarely been a problem, and even then, it's usually the winners that take more than a few minutes to close at or near market. Pick a price and let your broker figure it out. Love Stole the Day posted:Also, from your image it looks like you get an 8% return for that one example as long as the underlying's price stays within the window. Is that a typical amount of return for your bets? Because you said 50% earlier. And how often have these won out for you in practice, and how have you been able to survive the losing scenarios? When I say 50%, I mean 50% of the max possible return. For example, if I sell a strangle for $100, then I want to buy it back at $50. So far this year I've done earnings plays over 21 unique companies, with only one loser. My P/L as a ratio over these is $2 gained for every $1 lost. My specific loser was DDOG, which I lost because I entered too early and the day before earnings they megapumped over an analyst upgrade and some AI bullshit, and I chose to hold instead of roll. It sucked, but between the gains from other plays and the gains from my long-term/dividend positions, it didn't shake me: I learned some lessons for the next play. Which leads to survival: Establish a core position before you gently caress with options. About half of my account is in a long term, dollar cost averaged hold of SGOV, JEPI, and QQQM. This combination forms the core of my portfolio: the combination of growth and dividend provides a steady gain that is enough to offset even major setbacks. Ever since I established those positions, I have been so much more confident and less apt to trade tilted because of intimidating red numbers. Before I did that, my trading style (if it could be dignified with such a name) consisted of bleeding money while panicking through failed day trades, ill-advised iron condors, following goons into NDRA, and being a general wreck. I'm sure someone will chime in about how suboptimal my core position is (the discord has strong opinions about JEPI), but the important thing is to have a core position to begin with: at least one market tracking growth ETF (SPY, QQQM, QQQ), and at least one dividend ETF, ideally one that pays monthly (SGOV, JEPI).
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Jul 10, 2023 19:19
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My "home town" has a dead mall redevelopment project underway right now. They are planning ~2500 apartments (2.9 mil sq ft), ~500 townhomes (1.1mil sq ft), I guess they're planning to keep the central core of the mall as a shopping and resturaunt area (0.35 mil sq ft), a hotel with convention space and... 1.3 million square feet of office I'm very curious/skeptical about the profitability of these projects as ~33% of this project's profitability plan was office space and pretty much everyone is saying the CRE market won't fully recover until 2040
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Jul 10, 2023 19:25
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Hadlock posted:I'm very curious/skeptical about the profitability of these projects as ~33% of this project's profitability plan was office space and pretty much everyone is saying the CRE market won't fully recover until 2040 Has anyone heard from GoGoGadgetChris recently? 
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Jul 10, 2023 20:16
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Residency Evil posted:Has anyone heard from GoGoGadgetChris recently? Died in his massive gold vault surrounded by his
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