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fatherboxx)
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Starsfan posted:I use hope because whether they meet their goals or not is something that is prospective and in the future and can't be determined one way or the other right now. If it cannot be determined why do you say that changing things up is a sign of competency? The results are prospective and in the future and cannot be determined. How can something unknown be competent? How can hope be competence? My recollection is piles of abandoned Russian gear in the streets following their 'orderly withdrawal'.
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Jul 15, 2023 20:09
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Starsfan posted:Why do you think the Russians are doing that if they have no reserves to use in another portion of the line that is under heavy attack? Why go on the offensive in the east? You don't seem to understand much about what the Ukrainians are doing. They are attacking at multiple points on the front to force the Russians to fight everywhere at once. That consumes fuel/ammunition and requires resupply. Russia's biggest weakness is logistics. The goal is to get Russia moving stuff around then blow it up whenever it's concentrated. Troops without ammunition cannot fight. They're attacking in the east because a breakthrough there means Russia has to rush reserves and reinforcements there from elsewhere. That makes them weaker elsewhere, and makes it easier to make another breakthrough. It gets easier and easier to interdict supplies the more holes Russia is trying to plug simultaneously. So again, the point is to get Russia rushing troops and ammo and fuel all over the place, and then blow up the supply trains so that the front collapses in multiple places due to lack of supplies. That takes time to get going, and no one is expecting any immediate large gains of territory while they're setting it up.
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Jul 15, 2023 20:10
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Deteriorata posted:They're attacking in the east because a breakthrough there means Russia has to rush reserves and reinforcements there from elsewhere. That makes them weaker elsewhere, and makes it easier to make another breakthrough. It gets easier and easier to interdict supplies the more holes Russia is trying to plug simultaneously. The post I was responding to said that Russia is actually the ones attacking in the east and apparently in Kherson (which I was not personally aware of) which doesn't seem like the actions of a country that is being exerted across all the front and is just barely hanging on.. assuming that Ukraine's strategy is to constantly attack everywhere (which sounds kind of insane to me but whatever I'll take your word for it) when do you expect we will see results of Russian forces being unable to fight and having to fall back from the front?
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Jul 15, 2023 20:16
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Starsfan posted:The post I was responding to said that Russia is actually the ones attacking in the east and apparently in Kherson (which I was not personally aware of) Ukraine has established a bridgehead at the Antonovskii bridge, which Russians have been trying to erase for some time with high losses.
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Jul 15, 2023 20:29
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Starsfan posted:The post I was responding to said that Russia is actually the ones attacking in the east and apparently in Kherson (which I was not personally aware of) which doesn't seem like the actions of a country that is being exerted across all the front and is just barely hanging on.. Localized attacks don't really mean anything. They could attack elsewhere to relieve pressure, because they see an opportunity or because Putin has fired the competent generals and promoted yes men who do what he says. Even an active defense will require counterattacks periodically. Starsfan posted:assuming that Ukraine's strategy is to constantly attack everywhere (which sounds kind of insane to me but whatever I'll take your word for it) It is normal to put pressure along a line before deciding where to commit. It tells you where enemy defenses are, how strong they are, etc. You don't just roll everything into one spot and hope it isn't a minefield. You look for gaps.
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Jul 15, 2023 20:34
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Starsfan posted:I'm going by reports in western media that indicate that Ukraine and their western advisors have recognized that Ukraine's approach to the counter offensive was not working and they subsequently changed up to a different approach that they hope will be able to salvage some sort of results out of the whole thing down the line. I guess Germany doesn't count as "Western" media then, since all I'm seeing in German news media is talk about slow, but steady progress. Basically, not exactly the opposite of what you're claiming, but still close
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Jul 15, 2023 20:39
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Starsfan posted:The post I was responding to said that Russia is actually the ones attacking in the east and apparently in Kherson (which I was not personally aware of) which doesn't seem like the actions of a country that is being exerted across all the front and is just barely hanging on.. I don't get it. Here we have an army that made the conscious decision from the top of command to drive a convoy to Kyiv despite the fact that said convoy didn't have the supplies to actually get there, and when said army does something else that stretches their logistics beyond the rational breaking point the take is 'That's not the sort of thing a stretched force would do so they must have the capacity to do it'.
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Jul 15, 2023 20:47
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Starsfan posted:The post I was responding to said that Russia is actually the ones attacking in the east and apparently in Kherson (which I was not personally aware of) which doesn't seem like the actions of a country that is being exerted across all the front and is just barely hanging on.. Just want to be clear here but make sure you know the difference between these things. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kherson_Oblast https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kherson
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Jul 15, 2023 21:08
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Starsfan posted:assuming that Ukraine's strategy is to constantly attack everywhere (which sounds kind of insane to me but whatever I'll take your word for it) when do you expect we will see results of Russian forces being unable to fight and having to fall back from the front? Russia having a fresh history of dramatic failures and retreats from the earlier phases of the war conditions people to expect "success" to be measured by similar total front collapses, and people who ultimately just support russia (no matter how they choose to code this) repeatedly declare an absence of them to be evidence that Ukraine is failing. On top of this, everyone's going back and forth about this in a reframed context of "will russia be able to hold on to the regions they've held on to so far" when the original objectives of the war have become unrecoverable for them. I'm loosely in the school of thought that the task of winning a war is primarily a logistical concern with a little window dressing (the killing people part) attached to it, so while you might be thinking it's insane to hold pressure against russia on all fronts like Ukraine is doing, I'd think it would be crazy if they weren't doing this, especially considering how the war so far proved that absolute logistical paralysis on multiple levels is one of russia's critical weaknesses that has allowed them to lose so badly so far to literally actually Ukraine
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Jul 15, 2023 22:35
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Baronjutter posted:is there any serious movement in the west to sanction russia a bit more strictly? Obviously a lot of the existing sanctions are doing something, but Russia is still trading, western corporations are still doing massive business in russia and so on. I'd so love to see the economic warfare side of the conflict ramped up as high as we can. Why haven't we yet? Too many monied interests in the west that still want to do business with russia without too much attention drawn to them? I think the west is just out of things to sanction. They have almost entirely cut trade with russia. Their biggest weapon was financial sanctions, but cutting off Russian access to SWIFT hasn't really done much to the ruble. There was an initial shock but it stabilized and now the ruble is trading better than it was before the war. Western manufacturing has declined significantly since the end of the cold war. In order to really hurt Russia with sanctions you'd have to get China to participate because of their massive manufacturing isn't going to happen while simultaneously rattling sabers over Taiwan.
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Jul 15, 2023 22:53
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Cpt_Obvious posted:I think the west is just out of things to sanction. They have almost entirely cut trade with russia. Their biggest weapon was financial sanctions, but cutting off Russian access to SWIFT hasn't really done much to the ruble. There was an initial shock but it stabilized and now the ruble is trading better than it was before the war. That stopped being true a month or two ago, FWIW.
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Jul 15, 2023 22:57
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Baronjutter posted:is there any serious movement in the west to sanction russia a bit more strictly? Obviously a lot of the existing sanctions are doing something, but Russia is still trading, western corporations are still doing massive business in russia and so on. I'd so love to see the economic warfare side of the conflict ramped up as high as we can. Why haven't we yet? Too many monied interests in the west that still want to do business with russia without too much attention drawn to them? I think this is a matter more about how to implement enforcement rather than anything else, so I don't see how a movement could happen unless somebody has a eureka moment about how business is conducted. In theory all US companies can do is ensure they get an export license and that they aren't selling to sanctioned entities. In some cases, they can be liable if its obvious that they are trading to a shell company and not doing due diligence. But there's really no way to make sure that no goods make it to Russia unless you make companies liable for the entire chain of custody which is impractical. Like if you sell chips that end up in a washing machine, should you really be held liable if Russia buys those washing machines and disassembles them for the chips? Obviously, that's an extreme example, but look at this pub from the Department of Commerce for some practical examples: https://www.justice.gov/file/1571551/download quote:Companies should also review BIS and OFAC enforcement and targeting actions, as they often This means that US enforcement is largely based on companies doing exporting doing due diligence that they're not shipping to sanctioned individuals or obvious shell companies. Which sorta works for specialized parts that are hard to find in the open market. But this leaves gaps for parts mass production parts that a lot of big warehouses stock up on, because nobody is really expected to track custody for every step of their product. I think investigations can catch the shell companies used and put those on the sanctions list, but its always going to be a battle and there's no silver bullet solution. If the Russian military is operating a network of shell companies buying to buy what they need, there are limits to how companies can catch that.
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Jul 15, 2023 23:02
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Cpt_Obvious posted:I think the west is just out of things to sanction. They have almost entirely cut trade with russia. Their biggest weapon was financial sanctions, but cutting off Russian access to SWIFT hasn't really done much to the ruble. There was an initial shock but it stabilized and now the ruble is trading better than it was before the war.
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Jul 15, 2023 23:07
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Cpt_Obvious posted:I think the west is just out of things to sanction. They have almost entirely cut trade with russia. Their biggest weapon was financial sanctions, but cutting off Russian access to SWIFT hasn't really done much to the ruble. There was an initial shock but it stabilized and now the ruble is trading better than it was before the war. It was 'stable' because they were just lying about the value because there was basically nothing to check it against. It's easy to pretend at that point. And as stated, a month ago even this fell apart.
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Jul 15, 2023 23:11
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Cpt_Obvious posted:cutting off Russian access to SWIFT hasn't really done much to the ruble. There was an initial shock but it stabilized and now the ruble is trading better than it was before the war. I'm having the strangest sense of deja vu here because we already did the talk about russia's closed off funhouse currency valuation
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Jul 15, 2023 23:18
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Edit: I need to learn to read.
Cpt_Obvious fucked around with this message at 23:29 on Jul 15, 2023 |
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Jul 15, 2023 23:20
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 "There was an initial shock but it stabilized and now the ruble is trading better than it was before the war." That's gotta be up there with Vladimir Saldo's "everything is fine" while you can see flooded streets out the window. https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1666107160378441728
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Jul 15, 2023 23:31
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Cpt_Obvious posted:I think the west is just out of things to sanction. They have almost entirely cut trade with russia. Their biggest weapon was financial sanctions, but cutting off Russian access to SWIFT hasn't really done much to the ruble. There was an initial shock but it stabilized and now the ruble is trading better than it was before the war. Uranium supply and nuclear energy cooperation are still not sanctioned Most consumer goods are not in sanction packages, companies just leave Russia on their own
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Jul 15, 2023 23:38
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Libluini posted:Some more news from Die Zeit Liveblog:
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Jul 16, 2023 01:13
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https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1680196888602050560quote:Russian Telegram channels post this flyer that was put into mailboxes of the residents of temporarily occupied Enerhodar (the city closest to Zaporizhzhia NPP).
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Jul 16, 2023 02:42
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Owling Howl posted:Here's a article about the efforts of the Russian government to incentivice enlistment through financial compensation and the social and economic impact. That guy has a rather sinister take (I suppose as a Russian looking at what is happening), but my takeaway is that the government is being forced to spend absurdly large sums of money to get anyone to fight Ukraine, and even then not getting as many people as it probably needs. That doesn't bode well for the sustainability of their war.
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Jul 16, 2023 02:49
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For immediate placement, report to the Ministry of Admission at Grestin Border Checkpoint. An apartment will be provided for you and your family in East Grestin. Expect a Class-8 dwelling.
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Jul 16, 2023 08:09
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-pXyOp44Po&t=13s Not at all trying to make light of this, but it's literally the first thing that came to mind. Vincent Van Goatse fucked around with this message at 08:18 on Jul 16, 2023 |
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Jul 16, 2023 08:14
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Those are shockingly low figures to be 'tempting' people to move across a continent, even for Russia. A 550eur monthly (I presume) salary average, and a 2400eur relocation bonus.
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Jul 16, 2023 11:04
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550 euros goes a long way in Siberia. But then well, you're in Siberia.
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Jul 16, 2023 11:05
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spankmeister posted:550 euros goes a long way in Siberia. But then well, you're in Siberia. Really? I half expected Siberia to be like the North Slope of Alaska where everything costs $TEXAS because of how hard it is to ship anything in.
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Jul 16, 2023 11:18
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:Really? I half expected Siberia to be like the North Slope of Alaska where everything costs $TEXAS because of how hard it is to ship anything in. Yes, a lot of food is ridiculously expensive in smaller cities, especially closer to northern coast - it is offset by very cheap rent.
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Jul 16, 2023 11:24
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spankmeister posted:550 euros goes a long way in Siberia. But then well, you're in Siberia. Well, far east, not Siberia, Siberia is more inbetween European Russia and the Urals and the Russian Far East. e: Though I guess colloquially "Siberia" is often used for almost the entirety of Asian Russia.
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Jul 16, 2023 11:27
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Randarkman posted:Well, far east, not Siberia, Siberia is more inbetween European Russia and the Urals and the Russian Far East. Basicaly between the Urals and what Sarah Palin can see from her house is Siberia right??
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Jul 16, 2023 11:38
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spankmeister posted:550 euros goes a long way in Siberia. But then well, you're in Siberia. Its not a lot of money even there, though. A quick Google suggests the average monthly salary in Vladivostok is about 900eur/month. Usually (successful) relocation packages involve paying you a high salary to tempt you to move.
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Jul 16, 2023 11:46
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Blut posted:Its not a lot of money even there, though. A quick Google suggests the average monthly salary in Vladivostok is about 900eur/month. Yes but don’t forget your kids will have preferred entry to University and not, say, a lifetime of disappointment when the incentives for this program disappear within a few years. Edit - imagine managing your country in such a way that here are regions you essentially have to send paid colonists too, anda at the same time considering yourself a 21st century world power. Russia under their current regime are like the troublemaker civilisations in a Culture novel, the ones who who chestbeat and think their warrior virtue makes them more powerful than the playfully effete culture, right up until they discover how little effort the Minds were expending to keep them at bay. Edit edit - to be clear I’m not implying that they’re impotent or that NATO is omnipotent, just that their attitude is a tragic and blinkered one. Under Putin’s guidance they toy with pebbles and pull the wings off flies while the great ocean lies undiscovered, and congratulate themselves on their seamanship. The Artificial Kid fucked around with this message at 12:19 on Jul 16, 2023 |
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Jul 16, 2023 12:14
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The Artificial Kid posted:Edit - imagine managing your country in such a way that here are regions you essentially have to send paid colonists too, anda at the same time considering yourself a 21st century world power. Not to really equivalents to Russia's policies, but for example the USA has economic programmes to incentivize people to live in Alaska, and South Korea has programmes to incentivize people to live in the DMZ and farm there. Sometimes places just kinda suck to live, but you need to incentivize communities to live there for geopolitical reasons (supporting resource industries or soft power)
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Jul 16, 2023 13:06
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Various towns and states will offer some kind of financial incentive to move there, but that's just because they need population and economy. I think it's a different scenario when the reason you're being asked to move is "your current, otherwise attractive, location is about to become a moon crater."
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Jul 16, 2023 13:57
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Deltasquid posted:Not to really equivalents to Russia's policies, but for example the USA has economic programmes to incentivize people to live in Alaska, and South Korea has programmes to incentivize people to live in the DMZ and farm there. Many countries have this yeah, it's just how things are. For instance in Norway, moving to the north and settling there, especially working in some desired job such as a doctor, teacher, policeman or other public servant type job, you'll get tax breaks, the state will pay down your student loans, property is cheap, and so on and so on. Yet such jobs still stand vacant, public services stagnate or decline, and the overall population is dwindling from young people moving, old people dying and not enough outsiders moving in to replace them. Vaginaface posted:I think it's a different scenario when the reason you're being asked to move is "your current, otherwise attractive, location is about to become a moon crater." Eh, that won't happen even with an accident with the NPP, that's not how they work, even with the most catastrophic of meltdowns. If this is real, I think the reasoning is just that Russian authorities want to remove the current inhabitants to where they won't be an issue and replace them with Russian colonists. Randarkman fucked around with this message at 14:16 on Jul 16, 2023 |
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Jul 16, 2023 14:11
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The only occupied territory where they can reliaby bring colonists are coastline towns like Mariupol with a lot of resorts around. It is not Stalin days where you could just move around hundreds of thousands to pump industry and do wide scale replacement - at best it is seasonal workers to run whatever factories have not been demolished or bombed.
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Jul 16, 2023 14:38
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Energodar used to be river-side, and it's pretty nice climate, but you probably need some pretty specialized workers there!
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Jul 16, 2023 14:55
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Cpt_Obvious posted:I think the west is just out of things to sanction. Tracking what parts are making into the weapons would make it easy to find out who to go after or at least to start figuring out the gray market supply chain at work. Cpt_Obvious posted:but cutting off Russian access to SWIFT hasn't really done much to the ruble. The rouble is being propped up by extraordinary measures and the Russian economy is in pretty bad shape. They've already blown through nearly all their financial reserves that they expected to last the whole year too. Those reserves were a big part of keeping the lid on things too. Once that is all gone there are still things they can do that, on paper, make the economy look good but will also put it increasingly out of touch with reality since they have a hard time getting foreign currency.
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Jul 16, 2023 16:12
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New Perun video on the importance of artillery at this stage in the war https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1zcUe47xerQ
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Jul 16, 2023 16:29
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Can someone link a timeline chart of Russian foreign currency and gold reserves? I want to try to compare this to past shocks.
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Jul 16, 2023 16:43
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https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-ukraine-war-putin-cluster-bombs-counteroffensive-missiles-rcna94497 Putin is now threatening to use cluster bombs in Ukraine in what has to be a joke
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Jul 16, 2023 17:07
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