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fatherboxx)
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anonumos posted:I can't conceive of this fooling anyone. Ukraine sees drone footage of this, they ask the coalition 'hey what do you make of this', every intelligence service tears down the pixels, snaps some new footage of the coordinates, identifies every actual tail number there, counts Russia's known aircraft, and start laughing. Like, this is just busy work for soldiers worried sick about dying. That whole process having to happen is probably exactly what this is trying to achieve. It's extra work, time and ressources spent and probably at very little cost.
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Jul 22, 2023 01:00
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Kraftwerk posted:Then the GBAD side of things doesn’t work because the US/NATO is optimized towards letting their air forces do all the heavy lifting while ground formations mop up. The MIC simply isn’t configured to produce GBAD in sufficient numbers and effectiveness. I’d go as far as argue the US military only keeps patriots around for missile defence, that’s it. The idea that any US soldier would have to fire a stinger missile or patriot in anger at an enemy aircraft is probably a humorous joke since they’d have air superiority long before those weapons even make it to the theatre. This isn't true, nor is it how the US, at least, views modern warfare. US troops have had to fire ground-based air defenses in anger very recently (several times over the past few years), and that's just defending bases in permissive airspace like Iraq or Syria or the like, not a full up fight versus a modern or large enemy. US training, certification, modernization, and acquisition of air defense forces includes requirements for defense against manned aircraft, cruise missiles, UAS, helicopters, etc, and is not just for missile defense. If anything, it's gone even further, with ground forces other than air defense being told to prepare to have to maintain awareness of stuff in the the sky and hide from it and/or fire back, even if you're firing back with pretty ad hoc systems. The USAF's message for many years now has been that in the face of modern Russian SAMs and fighters and ESPECIALLY in the context of a fight with the PRC, the ground forces cannot and should not count on air superiority. Instead the joint force looks to create temporary and geographically constrained periods of air superiority to enable a major decisive battle or to conduct deep strike or the like. Video of US troops shooting ground-based air defenses and weapon systems at hostile UAVs in combat. These are not quad-copters dropping hand grenades or 60mm mortars, but they're still very basic and cheap versions compared to what an actual peer could bring to bear: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k_ZJC9gmXyo
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Jul 22, 2023 01:04
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C-RAM going C-HAM there
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Jul 22, 2023 01:21
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Two interesting things I saw today: Saw this article being talked about, probably due to a sorta incendiary passage that disguises a more mundane point that field fortifications are still useful in a battlefield where the opponent has good deep strike capability: https://engelsbergideas.com/essays/russian-fortifications-present-an-old-problem-for-ukraine/ quote:The fact is that Western military science, which has not been tested against a peer enemy in more than a generation, has got a major development in warfare seriously wrong, radically overestimating the power of offensive manoeuvre by highly mobile, digitally-networked forces that are relatively light, highly expensive, and in short supply—a ‘basket’ in which it has invested all its metaphorical ‘eggs’. Russia, by contrast, has maintained significant ‘old’ military capability, while at the same time using some new technologies at low cost, adapting its tactics at least adequately in most cases and, I shall argue, exceptionally in the case of field fortification. And a thread about an interview with the French diplomatic advisor Emmanuel Boone: https://nitter.net/RymMomtaz/status/1682491432018366466#m quote:Bonne (Macron's diplo adviser): What is crucial is that Russia be defeated in UKR, not be tempted to attack other Euro countries... the most basic security guarantees we can give is advanced weaponry... In Vilnius we gave UKR a v.clear perspective abt its NATO membership..." Which I think is interesting as evidence that diplomatic attitudes have unsurprisingly shifted after the Prigozhin mutiny. WarpedLichen fucked around with this message at 02:39 on Jul 22, 2023 |
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Jul 22, 2023 01:54
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Enjoy posted:Kavros suggested it. No, not at all, really. I asked you where you are being supplied with the narrative that the counteroffensive has conclusively failed. This is an important question to ask given that this is not a statement of fact, but a presumptive narrative that you seem to have bought into, making it important to analyze where you picked up that narrative from (and then analyze if the same general group you got it from has heavy overlap with people who have a clear history of making completely wrong recommendations about what Ukraine should do, based off of completely wrong assessments about the present 'assured' state of the Ukraine war). To be completely clear about it, "the counteroffensive has failed" is not a statement of fact at this point in time and I'm generally only hearing it repeated from people who also brought us tons of "Ukraine can't hold off russia so encouraging them to fight is just causing needless death" and (before that) "Russia isn't going to attack, they're just getting the west to run around panicked and look like idiots afterwards" Enjoy posted:We can disagree on the strength of the evidence but people are pretending this is just trolling when it isn't. It's not even really disagreeing on the strength of the evidence, it's that what you are providing as evidence doesn't at all match your claims.
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Jul 22, 2023 02:19
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WarpedLichen posted:Two interesting things I saw today: Big context this article is missing is how the Western militaries rely a lot on local air superiority for offencive maneuver. What we're seeing Ukraine do is somewhat analogous to the PVA attacking UN Forces in Korea; relying on infiltration tactics to get close to negate the enemy's advantage in fires and air superiority. Luckily for Ukraine they have a much wider front from which to conduct operations than China did.
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Jul 22, 2023 02:27
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WarpedLichen posted:Trying to change the topic from speculation. They should drop bags of red paint on them
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Jul 22, 2023 03:57
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PainterofCrap posted:They should drop bags of red paint on them hit em with tactical moulage missiles.
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Jul 22, 2023 05:41
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PainterofCrap posted:They should drop bags of red paint on them borscht bowl bomblets.
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Jul 22, 2023 05:43
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PainterofCrap posted:They should drop bags of red paint on them Attacked by some sort of rouge agent, I'm sure.
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Jul 22, 2023 05:52
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anonumos posted:I can't conceive of this fooling anyone. Ukraine sees drone footage of this, they ask the coalition 'hey what do you make of this', every intelligence service tears down the pixels, snaps some new footage of the coordinates, identifies every actual tail number there, counts Russia's known aircraft, and start laughing. Like, this is just busy work for soldiers worried sick about dying. When you are operating a loitering munition you don't have time to ask your superiors to call the Pentagon. Confusing decoys may work in that situation to, well, confuse. It doesn't mean that you can't tell from close up that it's just a 2D Wile E. Coyote painting and not even a plywood model, but when approaching it makes it a little harder to pick what to aim for. It's like with putting dazzle camo paint on a vehicle, doesn't make it invisible but can make it a little slower to digest what it is. Most of all though it's a lot of work for Russians but they have nothing better to do, and possibly some extra preparatory work for Ukrainians to recognise possible decoys.
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Jul 22, 2023 06:53
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Ukraine has now responded to Russian threats to all shipping to Ukrainian ports in kind. Any cargo ships sailing to and from Russian Black Sea ports are to be considered as military targets. While I doubt it will lead to any actual sinkings, it's going to lead to shipping companies and their insurers having to consider risks vs. profit and probably price their services differently even if Russian state guarantees a 100% compensation for possible losses. Just the shipping costs rising could make a big dent for Russia, international trade works on the premise that shipping costs pennies.
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Jul 22, 2023 07:03
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I feel like the Russian army should be able to afford hanging camo nets over their parking lot but I appreciate their artistic efforts.
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Jul 22, 2023 07:04
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Bulgarian parliament has approved the donation of around 100 BTR's to Ukraine. This appears to be a significant shift, as Bulgaria has huge stocks of Soviet built equipment that Ukraine would like to use but they have been sitting on the fence because of traditionally close cultural ties with Russia leading back to Russo-Turkish wars in the Balkans.
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Jul 22, 2023 07:42
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Nenonen posted:Ukraine has now responded to Russian threats to all shipping to Ukrainian ports in kind. Any cargo ships sailing to and from Russian Black Sea ports are to be considered as military targets. I thought Russian shipping were already having issues finding insurers and ships with dubious/unknown insurance carrying Russian oil was on the rise? I figured those ships probably wouldn't care (and were likely under insured anyway).
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Jul 22, 2023 07:50
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Nenonen posted:Bulgarian parliament has approved the donation of around 100 BTR's to Ukraine. This appears to be a significant shift, as Bulgaria has huge stocks of Soviet built equipment that Ukraine would like to use but they have been sitting on the fence because of traditionally close cultural ties with Russia leading back to Russo-Turkish wars in the Balkans. It's a bit more complicated than that. Bulgaria only just seated their first proper, parliament backed government since 2020, which had really been tying their hands. Their paralysis was largely due to infighting between which pro-eu faction got to be in charge (with a dose of spoiler parties gumming up the process, including pro-russian ones).
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Jul 22, 2023 13:15
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Kavros posted:No, not at all, really. I asked you where you are being supplied with the narrative that the counteroffensive has conclusively failed. This is an important question to ask given that this is not a statement of fact, but a presumptive narrative that you seem to have bought into, making it important to analyze where you picked up that narrative from (and then analyze if the same general group you got it from has heavy overlap with people who have a clear history of making completely wrong recommendations about what Ukraine should do, based off of completely wrong assessments about the present 'assured' state of the Ukraine war). Also the same crowd that saw Russia's incredibly slow crawl to conquer Bakhmut as a substantive victory. If not pro-Russian or so thoroughly brain-rotted by tankism to arrive there, I honestly think for some people it's really hard to let go of the narrative that Russia must win because it's a Great Power and that thus all Ukraine might reasonably hope for is a favourable white peace of sorts.
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Jul 22, 2023 16:34
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Enjoy posted:to treat them as literal cannon fodder As someone in regular contact with actual russian soldiers on the actual front, not the posting front lol just lmao if you think this is what Ukraine is doing and fwiw the general opinion is "we're hosed the хохол is owning us i want to go home" so so much for the failed offensive
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Jul 22, 2023 18:15
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:As someone in regular contact with actual russian soldiers on the actual front, not the posting front Why not both?
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Jul 22, 2023 19:16
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Enjoy posted:Why not both? Because the evidence available to us does not support such an assertion.
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Jul 22, 2023 19:17
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:As someone in regular contact with actual russian soldiers on the actual front, not the posting front Interesting. How many soldiers? Multiple contacts in different areas? Are you able to give us info on their approximate location on the front and what units they are in (ie infantry, artillery, rear area support etc)?
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Jul 22, 2023 19:51
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Another example of Western components in Russian weapons. This time Texas Instruments and AMD chips in Kh-101 cruise missiles. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/parts-made-by-u-s-companies-used-to-build-russian-cruise-missiles https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jTFf-g48moM
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Jul 22, 2023 20:07
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MikeC posted:Interesting. How many soldiers? Multiple contacts in different areas? Are you able to give us info on their approximate location on the front and what units they are in (ie infantry, artillery, rear area support etc)? Woh there, Sneaky McSpyerson. anonumos fucked around with this message at 20:12 on Jul 22, 2023 |
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Jul 22, 2023 20:08
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The truth is, we don't really know how well Ukraine is doing. OSINT data indicates that losses in military vehicles in the past month are favourable to Ukraine, but we also know that minefields have proved to be a huge obstacle and have slowed the counteroffensive, pressuring Ukraine into adopting a different approach. The rest I don't even think is possible to assess properly. Anecdotes from regular soldiers about how dire things are at the frontline on both sides are not an indicator of much, since it's been a constant almost from the very start of the full-scale invasion.
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Jul 22, 2023 21:04
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Nenonen posted:Ukraine has now responded to Russian threats to all shipping to Ukrainian ports in kind. Any cargo ships sailing to and from Russian Black Sea ports are to be considered as military targets. It would be on brand for this war if a 100% compensation by Russia turns into a "cash for clunkers" scam for old ships.
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Jul 22, 2023 21:07
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Paladinus posted:The truth is, we don't really know how well Ukraine is doing. OSINT data indicates that losses in military vehicles in the past month are favourable to Ukraine, but we also know that minefields have proved to be a huge obstacle and have slowed the counteroffensive, pressuring Ukraine into adopting a different approach. The rest I don't even think is possible to assess properly. Anecdotes from regular soldiers about how dire things are at the frontline on both sides are not an indicator of much, since it's been a constant almost from the very start of the full-scale invasion. We can know that the counterattack hasn't been absolutely crushed and concluded like Enjoy is claiming, though. That's why people were wanting to know where he got that idea from, which just turned out to be 'he made it up'.
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Jul 22, 2023 21:07
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Kchama posted:We can know that the counterattack hasn't been absolutely crushed and concluded like Enjoy is claiming, though. True. Both sides indicate it's in progress. It may or may not be going well, but it's definitely still going.
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Jul 22, 2023 21:11
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Paladinus posted:True. Both sides indicate it's in progress. It may or may not be going well, but it's definitely still going. Also Ukraine's leadership has repeatedly pointed out that it has been harder than expected and that the initial plan didn't work out as they hoped. I'm thinking that one of the big "what ifs" of this war that scholars will debate in the future is whether it paid off to postpone the spring offensive. As someone on the outside who has no real info on what the decisions were based on, it SEEMS that one of the reasons for the delayed offensive was to raise more mobile brigades, especially to equip them with the Western tanks that took a lot of time to actually get and train crews for. This gave Russia extra time to prepare and dig in, preparations that have proven to make the immediate use of said tanks moot as they have been barely deployed, almost two months into the offensive. So if the offensive would be fought with attritional artillery and light infantry skirmishes, would it have been better to start it in April when the Russian lines were not quite as daunting? Would two months less of Russian fortifications matter? Or was the Ukrainian infantry forces not ready anyways for a Spring offensive? I have no idea, and I don't think anyone has all the data to give a honest answer, but maybe it'll be possible to puzzle it out after the war.
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Jul 22, 2023 21:21
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MikeC posted:Interesting. How many soldiers? Multiple contacts in different areas? Are you able to give us info on their approximate location on the front and what units they are in (ie infantry, artillery, rear area support etc)? all kinds but it tends to be infantry and artillery if i had to specify. i with a lot of other people facilitate mobiks on the front and would be mobiks who would rather not see the front loving off to Kazakhstan, France, Germany, and USA to do productive things with their lives. for my own sake and theirs that's really all i can say.
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Jul 23, 2023 00:32
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Another Russian strike on Odesa, this one hitting residential buildings and a church in the city center among other things.
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Jul 23, 2023 01:13
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:all kinds but it tends to be infantry and artillery if i had to specify. i with a lot of other people facilitate mobiks on the front and would be mobiks who would rather not see the front loving off to Kazakhstan, France, Germany, and USA to do productive things with their lives. for my own sake and theirs that's really all i can say. Do the artillery groups feel as though they have sufficient ammunition? Or is there a severe shortage?
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Jul 23, 2023 02:34
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:all kinds but it tends to be infantry and artillery if i had to specify. i with a lot of other people facilitate mobiks on the front and would be mobiks who would rather not see the front loving off to Kazakhstan, France, Germany, and USA to do productive things with their lives. for my own sake and theirs that's really all i can say. That's really cool, good for you for helping with that effort.
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Jul 23, 2023 02:53
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:all kinds but it tends to be infantry and artillery if i had to specify. i with a lot of other people facilitate mobiks on the front and would be mobiks who would rather not see the front loving off to Kazakhstan, France, Germany, and USA to do productive things with their lives. for my own sake and theirs that's really all i can say. Cool thanks. Are the mobiks on different areas of the front having different experiences with things like training, equipment, and usage on the battlefield? Do they mix with professional contract soldiers much? Is there a wide culture gap between them or is there a sense everyone is miserable? Even though this suffers from both a "trust me bro" and stories being anecdotal, it would be nice to get first-hand accounts and thoughts from people actually on the front from the Russian side.
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Jul 23, 2023 04:21
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:all kinds but it tends to be infantry and artillery if i had to specify. i with a lot of other people facilitate mobiks on the front and would be mobiks who would rather not see the front loving off to Kazakhstan, France, Germany, and USA to do productive things with their lives. for my own sake and theirs that's really all i can say. That's a noble effort and I advise you to not answer any more questions about it.
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Jul 23, 2023 06:54
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:all kinds but it tends to be infantry and artillery if i had to specify. i with a lot of other people facilitate mobiks on the front and would be mobiks who would rather not see the front loving off to Kazakhstan, France, Germany, and USA to do productive things with their lives. for my own sake and theirs that's really all i can say. This is the lords work. Please shut up about it.
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Jul 23, 2023 07:02
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spankmeister posted:That's a noble effort and I advise you to not answer any more questions about it. yeah 100% that ^
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Jul 23, 2023 07:03
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spankmeister posted:That's a noble effort and I advise you to not answer any more questions about it. Yeah you should listen to this poster.
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Jul 23, 2023 07:29
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/23/west-must-focus-on-preparing-ukraines-troops-or-we-will-all-pay-the-pricequote:Another problem is that much of the training provided has been poorly designed. Individual soldiers can be trained in Ukraine. What cannot be easily done there – with Ukraine’s training grounds targets for Russian strikes – is unit training above the company. For this reason, collective training has been organised on European training grounds for some Ukrainian units. However, western forces have a mantra that you should ‘‘train as you fight’’. Ukrainian troops have been clear that they have not been able to do this on western training areas. They have not been able to fly their UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) because of regulatory constraints, or use their own fire control software because it is not certified by Nato. Watling has always been on point in clearly articulating shortcomings throughout the war.
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Jul 23, 2023 10:04
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:all kinds but it tends to be infantry and artillery if i had to specify. i with a lot of other people facilitate mobiks on the front and would be mobiks who would rather not see the front loving off to Kazakhstan, France, Germany, and USA to do productive things with their lives. for my own sake and theirs that's really all i can say. Good work.  This isn't War Thunder, say nothing. 
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Jul 23, 2023 10:08
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OddObserver posted:Another Russian strike on Odesa, this one hitting residential buildings and a church in the city center among other things. Not just a church, it's the biggest Orthodox church in Odessa. The original 19th century cathedral was destroyed in 1936 and then later rebuilt in the early noughties. Patriarch Cyril himself consecrated it in 2010. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transfiguration_Cathedral_in_Odesa Russia claims it was destroyed by 'incompetent Ukrainian anti-air operators', because Russian missiles are so precise, they simply can't damage civil building, only military targets and foreign mercenaries.
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Jul 23, 2023 13:08
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