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I think part of valuation of a company's stock is a prognostication of its risk, but if the foundational premise is that it's literally zero risk, then it's no longer a real-world thought experiment. Even TIPS have some actual risk, despite referring to the "risk-free rate of return." It might be more fruitful to use a starting premise of some quantifiable level of nonzero risk? Not just volatility, but the normal business risks - market, industry, interest rate, regulatory, etc. etc. Perhaps it's impossible to quantify all those risks in a simple way though. IMO this is flirting with the irresolvable "efficient market hypothesis", something like a uh... efficient company valuation hypothesis, with the same basic problems? e. I guess that's a bit muddy so, clarifying my thoughts: if the question is "what is the correct E/R" as a matter of developing a formula for that, just looking at history suggests there's never been a consistent answer to that and that suggests there may not be even a theoretical answer to build into a model. Probably there is no correct E/R, there's just whatever emerges from a system with too many chaotic inputs to quantify. Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 22:06 on Oct 5, 2023 |
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Oct 5, 2023 22:03
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Subvisual Haze posted:Oil stocks have tanked this week. Debating with myself whether to buy more in anticipation of a rebound or sell some of my high cost basis shares for tax loss harvesting. a day later. A lot of my portfolio is energy adjacent and got murdered by oil sliding. however. things rebounded nicely today so over all I’m flat. Been seeing some tweets that EIA is misreporting/underreporting gasoline consumption. demand seems stronger than it is. im sticking to my picks and hope I’m right. mostly counting on “soft landing” and “no recession” and “fossil fuel demand is stronger than people realize” been rough the last few days for sure though.
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Oct 6, 2023 03:03
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My uranium ETF is doing real good
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Oct 6, 2023 03:31
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yummycheese posted:a day later. A lot of my portfolio is energy adjacent and got murdered by oil sliding. however. things rebounded nicely today so over all I’m flat.
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Oct 6, 2023 03:39
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I want to sell a covered call on a stock I already own, qty 100 shares x $13~ avg cost basis, and stock is currently trading at $25. I do not believe the stock is going to go down so I'm not selling, and I picked up a put w/ strike above cost basis. My intention with the covered call is I want some cash and I don't want to sell any holdings. I guess I'm wondering this: if I sell a call with a strike price higher than my cost basis, and it gets called, I'm essentially selling the stock at strike price of the call? The answer seems fairly obvious as I type this, but am trying to make sure I understand it.
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Oct 6, 2023 18:01
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Burn Zone posted:I want to sell a covered call on a stock I already own, qty 100 shares x $13~ avg cost basis, and stock is currently trading at $25. I do not believe the stock is going to go down so I'm not selling, and I picked up a put w/ strike above cost basis. My intention with the covered call is I want some cash and I don't want to sell any holdings. I guess I'm wondering this: if I sell a call with a strike price higher than my cost basis, and it gets called, I'm essentially selling the stock at strike price of the call? The answer seems fairly obvious as I type this, but am trying to make sure I understand it.
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Oct 6, 2023 18:09
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Burn Zone posted:I guess I'm wondering this: if I sell a call with a strike price higher than my cost basis, and it gets called, I'm essentially selling the stock at strike price of the call? The answer seems fairly obvious as I type this, but am trying to make sure I understand it. Yes. It doesn't even matter what your cost basis is. If the strike price is $X dollars and you get assigned, you sell 100 shares at $X per contract. Being above or below your cost basis changes your profit/loss and tax liability, but it doesn't affect how the option works.
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Oct 6, 2023 18:10
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Subvisual Haze posted:Yes. When you sell a call you're giving someone else the option to buy your shares at that strike price. You might be forced to sell the shares. mrmcd posted:Yes. Thanks a ton, I thought I was understanding it correctly. I appreciate the confirmation.
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Oct 6, 2023 18:32
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You should also be aware that while unusual, you can be assigned even if the buyer of your option is taking a loss (e.g., out of the money). Occasionally there are arcane reasons why someone does this. https://www.thebalancemoney.com/can-an-otm-option-be-exercised-2536809 You could in theory have this happen and then just immediately make a market purchase of the shares back into your portfolio at the lower market price, and I am not sure whether/how that affects your cost basis/wash sale rules.
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Oct 6, 2023 20:46
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Leperflesh posted:arcane reasons why someone does this. GME idiots a couple years ago were big fans of buying OTM calls and immediately exercising them to theoretically force shorts to come up with "real" shares.
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Oct 6, 2023 21:25
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It's pretty normal for them to be exercised early if a dividend record date is being crossed. Depending on how much extrinsic value the option has relative to the dividend payout that can be gained.
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Oct 6, 2023 22:09
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Cacafuego posted:My uranium ETF is doing real good Take profits in early december
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Oct 7, 2023 01:27
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TreeOcto posted:Take profits in early december Why do you say this?
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Oct 8, 2023 19:07
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you ever heard of a nuclear winter?
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Oct 8, 2023 19:17
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Shear Modulus posted:Why do you say this? I was wondering this as well
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Oct 8, 2023 20:10
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Fate Accomplice posted:GME idiots a couple years ago were big fans of buying OTM calls and immediately exercising them to theoretically force shorts to come up with "real" shares. I thought they were doing this to get around the RobinHood ban on acquiring GME shares.
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Oct 8, 2023 20:31
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wait, their plan to stick it to hedgies was to buy at above market prices on robinhood instead of just opening a different app?
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Oct 8, 2023 21:19
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drk posted:wait, their plan to stick it to hedgies was to buy at above market prices on robinhood instead of just opening a different app? I’m not sure plan is the correct word.
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Oct 8, 2023 23:10
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The quarterly JP Morgan Guide to the Markets is out. Pretty handy for some top-level stats if you're interested. https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/mi-guide-to-the-markets-us.pdf
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Oct 11, 2023 20:03
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Agronox posted:The quarterly JP Morgan Guide to the Markets is out. Pretty handy for some top-level stats if you're interested.
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Oct 12, 2023 01:10
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quote:Meanwhile, Tempest Therapeutics shares soared 4,000% after seeing positive study results for its investigational liver cancer treatment TPST-1120. This should’ve been us
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Oct 12, 2023 01:27
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Anyone know about $CCCC/ C4 therapeutics?
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Oct 12, 2023 01:43
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Agronox posted:The quarterly JP Morgan Guide to the Markets is out. Pretty handy for some top-level stats if you're interested.  interesting
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Oct 12, 2023 01:48
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ARTPUP posted:Stock to watch: Op Gen (OPGN) - could go bankrupt by the end of Sept. - could get bought up by Thermo Fisher, maybe the pie-in-the-sky deal with China for 180 million goes through, who knows? Either sad disaster or a happy surprise... Happy surprise I guess! Was actually planning to buy more yesterday, @.35 but didn't get the chance...
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Oct 12, 2023 14:05
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ARTPUP posted:Happy surprise I guess! Was actually planning to buy more yesterday, @.35 but didn't get the chance... Nice hit!
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Oct 12, 2023 17:41
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yummycheese posted:a day later. A lot of my portfolio is energy adjacent and got murdered by oil sliding. however. things rebounded nicely today so over all I’m flat.
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Oct 12, 2023 18:46
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Toalpaz posted:you ever heard of a nuclear winter? Is this like el Nina?
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Oct 14, 2023 17:01
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I’m wondering if there’s a good way to cash in on the apes. Best Buy seems like a sure fire hit for their “formula” but Best Buy’s doing ok. On the other hand bed bath and beyond was BBBYQ and Best Buy is BBY, it just seems like such a slam dunk if they were distressed but they are just doing medium bad. I mean O’Keefe did a hit piece on them but it doesn’t seem to have done much.
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Oct 15, 2023 07:15
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pmchem posted:I just did a whole series of interactions with better.com in the past 36 hours. Their initial machine-generated quote was noncompetitive poo poo. necro'ing an old post of mine from a different BFC thread in 2020 for a hilarious update better.com wanted to IPO/SPAC in early 2021, hence them giving anyone willing to put in a tiny amount of effort insane deals on refis. they wanted to pump their volume numbers for the IPO. that got put on held for a SEC investigation plus some various CEO fuckups (their CEO is a jerk, but their website was good). I had largely forgot about them, but they did actually finally close the SPAC deal in August! super delayed, and this led to a hilarious result: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/a-valuation-reset-hits-the-ipo-market-as-better-stock-crashes-90-after-debut-141559314.html quote:Ines Ferré·Senior Business Reporter the stock is currently trading at 0.3668: https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=BETR&p=d with this chart:  it would've been a many-billion $ shitco had they managed to despac in 2021 as intended $60 to $0.3668
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Oct 16, 2023 23:20
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What percent of the total stock is publicly traded Several other de-SPACs only have 1-5% (or whatever the lower allowable limit is) in the public market; the rest is held by investors for employees, so you get huge swings, and nobody is willing to part with their shares especially as the price tanks, especially if profitability is on the horizon, however far away it is
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Oct 16, 2023 23:35
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dunno exactly, it's some convoluted spac structure with various share classes and RSUs and warrants. finviz suggests 1/3 of the outstanding shares are floated, but the full S-1 is here: https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1835856/000162828023034261/betr-20231011.htm whatever the actual percent is, I think you can safely say they were not intending to get nasdaq delisting notices this early: https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1835856/000162828023034377/betr-20231012.htm
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Oct 16, 2023 23:43
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here's one for the optimists
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Oct 17, 2023 01:41
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pmchem posted:here's one for the optimists SP500 is up over 14% YTD, so it seems more likely than not to end in the green even if the last 10 weeks of the year are nasty.
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Oct 17, 2023 01:52
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drk posted:SP500 is up over 14% YTD, so it seems more likely than not to end in the green even if the last 10 weeks of the year are nasty. right, but the way that chart is describing years, it's from the bear low. so year 2 started on 10/12/2023: 4 days ago
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Oct 17, 2023 01:56
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I don't think I understand GM. what happens to all its earnings? https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/GM/general-motors/pe-ratio https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=GM&p=d https://roic.ai/quote/GM:UN dividend payout as % of EPS is like 3% shares outstanding has went down only by like 5% yoy LT debt is slightly increasing their cash on hand bounces around a lot, but is only up like $2b from 2022 levels the stock has averaged a p/e of 5 for like a decade and after that decade its market cap is unchanged ...with increased revenue and income over that period! are they like just putting earnings in cash for a bit and then plowing billions into R&D/capex that's going nowhere? that's what it must be, right, huge reinvestment of earnings after they're booked to basically tread water? but their RoI metric is also like 6% (not great but >= treasuries), so why can't GM increase share price over time? unchanged for a decade, and remarkably flat for many years at a time contrast to another big, boring, low p/e, low growth company, $MO: https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/MO/altria/pe-ratio https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?GM,MO&n=2520&O=011000 altria absolutely kills GM in both price and total return because of its divs and buybacks. but, different business sector of course.
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Oct 18, 2023 02:07
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pmchem posted:are they like just putting earnings in cash for a bit and then plowing billions into R&D/capex that's going nowhere? that's what it must be, right, huge reinvestment of earnings after they're booked to basically tread water? I'm seeing GM's YTD earnings of about $5.0b, and capex of $4.5b. Tough business. Tobacco's not nearly as capital intensive, as you'd guess. PM's YTD earnings are $3.8b with capex of $639MM.
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Oct 18, 2023 02:34
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Agronox posted:I'm seeing GM's YTD earnings of about $5.0b, and capex of $4.5b. Tough business. ok, glad I wasn't guessing wrongly I gotta stop thinking about p/e without also thinking about roi pretty much every time. mauboussin!!! https://www.morganstanley.com/im/publication/insights/articles/article_roicandtheinvestmentprocess.pdf?1697593151588
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Oct 18, 2023 02:42
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CRTX getting some stiff competition! https://nypost.com/2023/10/23/viagra-could-slash-risk-of-alzheimers-disease-by-60-study/
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Oct 25, 2023 00:02
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From Table 6 to stable dicks
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Oct 25, 2023 00:04
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Hope none of you are turbo long SOFI! All Spacs Must Die
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Oct 25, 2023 16:41
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