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fatherboxx)
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Yeah, these barrage may even be calculated to exhaust defensive stocks.
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Jan 2, 2024 15:23
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| # ? Jun 7, 2024 23:07 |
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They also seemed to have been doing a thing where they send a single Kh-59 a day for a while.
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Jan 2, 2024 15:36
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Russia's been getting ballistic missiles from the DPRK https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20240105000255315?section=nk/nk
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Jan 5, 2024 06:26
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New Anders Puck Nielsen https://youtu.be/HYWCUZBvJ7k?si=7698NAT8VYPByuSI
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Jan 5, 2024 13:17
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Rust Martialis posted:New Anders Puck Nielsen He points out the shift from sustained attacks to mass attacks to overwhelm air defenses. He indicates he thinks this round of attacks is mostly aimed at the Ukrainian defense industry. He points out that some attacks on military targets results will be hidden by Ukraine. He points out missiles can hit unintended targets if shot down or jammed. He acknowledges last year's winter campaign was aimed at civilian infrastructure to reduce the will to fight. (see: civilian targets) He indicates he thinks they are still hitting civilian targets intentionally "to some extent". He ends the video saying maybe the Russians are adding civilian targets to these attacks just to get "spectacular" TV coverage. Frankly, I don't see the point of this video or the distinctions it tries to draw. Is it *really* important everyone keep in mind that missiles *can* hit unintended targets for XYZ reason so they can ponder whether *this* time the Russians bullseyed a few hospitals/schools/playgrounds it wasn't intentional? Especially in the video the speaker indicates that yeah, they're probably intentionally hitting these civilian targets some unknown percentage of the time, even if just to make the news? Warbadger fucked around with this message at 14:16 on Jan 5, 2024 |
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Jan 5, 2024 14:10
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Warbadger posted:He points out the shift from sustained attacks to mass attacks to overwhelm air defenses. To what extent Russia deliberately targets civilian infrastructure is important. It may point towards shifts in tactics, which in turn could be explained by changes in what ammunition and how much is available to Russia, as well as the quality of their intel. However, the fact that only ~80k of people were left without electricity for less than a day as the result of the latest attacks, and there is no need so far for rolling blackouts, could also mean that Ukraine is simply better prepared this time around.
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Jan 5, 2024 14:33
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I would love to see the data on how many small size generators have been trucked into Ukraine over the past year.
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Jan 5, 2024 14:50
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If nothing else, it is important for people to know that Russia is still actively using its forces to degrade and destroy Ukrainian military capability, to try to set conditions to win the war or reach termination of conflict on terms favorable to Russia. They have not just given up on knocking out military capability and switched to attacking undefended civilians instead.
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Jan 5, 2024 15:21
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The DPRK getting involved is a big deal. It changes the calculus for them getting frisky on the Korean peninsula because now we'll have to assume Russia would help them in turn, and it sounds like DPRK will get some tech transfer from Russia. DPRK is largely a 1960s artillery army, so adding modern aircraft, submarines, and missile technology would make them far more dangerous than they already are. Man, Bush was close with the Axis of Evil. He just swapped Iraq for Russia.
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Jan 5, 2024 18:04
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Ynglaur posted:The DPRK getting involved is a big deal. It changes the calculus for them getting frisky on the Korean peninsula because now we'll have to assume Russia would help them in turn, and it sounds like DPRK will get some tech transfer from Russia. DPRK is largely a 1960s artillery army, so adding modern aircraft, submarines, and missile technology would make them far more dangerous than they already are. You do not got to hand it to Bush, you know. Trying to imagine an expansionistic dprk is just Clancy brain
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Jan 5, 2024 18:06
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Ynglaur posted:The DPRK getting involved is a big deal. It changes the calculus for them getting frisky on the Korean peninsula because now we'll have to assume Russia would help them in turn, and it sounds like DPRK will get some tech transfer from Russia. DPRK is largely a 1960s artillery army, so adding modern aircraft, submarines, and missile technology would make them far more dangerous than they already are. The DPRK selling weapons to Russia does not equate to Russia intervening in a Korean peninsula scenario. And the DPRK already has very good indigenous surface to surface missile programs. While I'm sure that if we see collaboration between Russia and the DPRK it could be mutually beneficial if it occurs, it's not some game changer of pulling the DPRK out of the 1960s. They make and demonstrate their own high performance ballistic missiles already.
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Jan 5, 2024 18:11
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Also, pretty sure this deal is DPRK for money, not DPRK for technology exchanges.
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Jan 5, 2024 18:13
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Ynglaur posted:Man, Bush was close with the Axis of Evil. He just swapped Iraq for Russia. Well, you know, he looked into his eyes and all that.
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Jan 5, 2024 18:19
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mlmp08 posted:If nothing else, it is important for people to know that Russia is still actively using its forces to degrade and destroy Ukrainian military capability, to try to set conditions to win the war or reach termination of conflict on terms favorable to Russia. They have not just given up on knocking out military capability and switched to attacking undefended civilians instead. He implies last year's missile campaign was primarily focused on infrastructure toward the goal of degrading Ukrainian will to fight - not degrading military capability and not military/defense targets. What he's saying is closer to Russia giving up on knocking out civilian targets and switching to defense related targets instead. But also still hitting some civilians to make the news. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 20:15 on Jan 5, 2024 |
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Jan 5, 2024 18:52
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Ynglaur posted:Not my area of expertise, but the US began expanding its arms production in 1940. It was fast, but I don't know that it was less than six months. We certainly had more raw factory capacity back then for that type of thing, though. The US manufacturing capabilities of WW2 are a subject entirely to their own. The obvious answer to the quick ramp-up question is that every aspect of our manufacturing and logistics was built and set to get equipment made as quickly as possible and delivered to the front as quickly as possible where the equipment would have as long of a life as possible. We had tank/arms factories that had railroads built into them that you could drive trains through. The degree of complete war manufacturing of the US in WW1 and WW2 is something we are not operating under currently. One of the unsung people/groups of WW2 was a guy named Albert Kahn and his design group, who were responsible for much of the arms factory and base designs in the US during WW1/Interwar/WW2. He also designed the Stalingrad Tractor Factory, and trained and advised Soviet engineer groups during Soviet Industrialization.
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Jan 5, 2024 19:26
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Subjunctive posted:Well, you know, he looked into his eyes and all that.
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Jan 5, 2024 19:34
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Mr. Apollo posted:I was thinking about that quote the other day. It did not age well. Dubya’s genial, smirky stupidity is the worst presidential affect either, except for Trump’s awkward, glowering stupidity. (Grinning while smoking a cigarette in a jauntily-angled holder while stubbornly pretending to have full use of one’s legs is, by contrast, the best presidential affect ever.)
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Jan 5, 2024 20:35
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I really can't stress enough how much of a nepotism baby W. Bush was. There's Trump failing upwards because capitalism, and there's W. Bush failing upwards because male Bush's are supposed to govern. And have been expected to at least since Prescott Bush tried to coup FDR.
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Jan 5, 2024 23:03
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RandomPauI posted:I really can't stress enough how much of a nepotism baby W. Bush was. Boy they must be disappointed in Jeb!
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Jan 5, 2024 23:14
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Ms Adequate posted:Boy they must be disappointed in Jeb! There's a George P. Bush in Texas who lost the attorney general primary last year, so Jeb! is not the most disappointing political scion of the house.
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Jan 6, 2024 00:24
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Ms Adequate posted:Boy they must be disappointed in Jeb! Well, Jeb's wife spoke Spanish, so yeah: probably a disappointment to his parents.
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Jan 6, 2024 00:35
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cr0y posted:I would love to see the data on how many small size generators have been trucked into Ukraine over the past year. It’s pretty easy to put medium sized diesel generators (think van sized) into open top containers if one knows how to do it properly. They’re pretty easy to move.
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Jan 6, 2024 02:04
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Morrow posted:There's a George P. Bush in Texas who lost the attorney general primary last year, so Jeb! is not the most disappointing political scion of the house. Was that the Bush who had to kiss up to Trump for a Trump endorsement? EDIT: Yes. That's the Bush. https://www.politico.com/news/2021/...he%20president.
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Jan 6, 2024 02:20
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https://twitter.com/DimSel007/status/1743260427872591893?t=7M5Rdh24YiTj-U_nL8G4iw&s=19 Well thats one way to use a SteamDeck
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Jan 6, 2024 10:08
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Pennsylvanian posted:The US manufacturing capabilities of WW2 are a subject entirely to their own. The obvious answer to the quick ramp-up question is that every aspect of our manufacturing and logistics was built and set to get equipment made as quickly as possible and delivered to the front as quickly as possible where the equipment would have as long of a life as possible. We had tank/arms factories that had railroads built into them that you could drive trains through. The degree of complete war manufacturing of the US in WW1 and WW2 is something we are not operating under currently. It's awe inspiring, to be sure, but doesn't answer the question of "did American shells at the outbreak of WWII need to sit 6 months for curing explosives, and if not how long did they have to take, if at all?" Which, honestly, I'm curious about too just for the sake of curiosity. Is it just because we use newer, safer explosive compounds? Was the fact that the shells were going to be used near immediately mean that they didn't need to worry about stability as much? Was there just inherent risk that was overlooked for expediency? I would like to know more!
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Jan 6, 2024 10:43
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Different explosives have different properties and react differently to time. Gunpowder degrades, ammonium nitrate becomes more explosive in a way that's unpredictable. I don't know what formulas the US used for arty during WW2 or what the Germans use for arty now. But for whatever reason, one manufacturers powder needs to age for half a year before it's safe and reliable enough to use.
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Jan 6, 2024 10:52
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Volmarias posted:It's awe inspiring, to be sure, but doesn't answer the question of "did American shells at the outbreak of WWII need to sit 6 months for curing explosives, and if not how long did they have to take, if at all?" I can’t answer your question, but the very active and good Military History thread sould be able to answer this in detail I think : https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3950461&perpage=40&pagenumber=632&noseen=1
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Jan 6, 2024 15:28
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Volmarias posted:It's awe inspiring, to be sure, but doesn't answer the question of "did American shells at the outbreak of WWII need to sit 6 months for curing explosives, and if not how long did they have to take, if at all?" IIRC probably; the US began moving towards a war production footing by at least 1939-40.
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Jan 6, 2024 16:31
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Volmarias posted:It's awe inspiring, to be sure, but doesn't answer the question of "did American shells at the outbreak of WWII need to sit 6 months for curing explosives, and if not how long did they have to take, if at all?" Short version, yes. Most were some combination of TNT and RDX, such as Composition B or Torpex. Sometimes straight TNT was used. All of these disagree strongly with high temperatures, so the occasional ship or downtown harbor evaporating in event of a fire was just the cost of doing business. These days insensitive explosive compounds are preferred, but I know even less about those.
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Jan 7, 2024 05:00
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Ynglaur posted:The DPRK getting involved is a big deal. It changes the calculus for them getting frisky on the Korean peninsula because now we'll have to assume Russia would help them in turn, and it sounds like DPRK will get some tech transfer from Russia. DPRK is largely a 1960s artillery army, so adding modern aircraft, submarines, and missile technology would make them far more dangerous than they already are. It's a real Greek tragedy. Grimnarsson fucked around with this message at 09:14 on Jan 7, 2024 |
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Jan 7, 2024 09:05
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Ynglaur posted:The DPRK getting involved is a big deal. It changes the calculus for them getting frisky on the Korean peninsula because now we'll have to assume Russia would help them in turn, and it sounds like DPRK will get some tech transfer from Russia. DPRK is largely a 1960s artillery army, so adding modern aircraft, submarines, and missile technology would make them far more dangerous than they already are. Just as a heads up, this read on the situation is pretty far from any probable reality. It's not being done for any kind of military equipment "help in turn," there's no expectation that russia is going to be able or even willing to jump in and invest in the modernization of the dprk's military forces (or even if they could competently manage the proposed 'upgrades',) this doesn't stand to jump north korea up in ~dangerousness~ The actual situation is: russia is hard pressed and occasionally desperate to maintain ammunition supply at current expenditure rates, and the dprk has ill-used stores of ammunition they can put to work. So north korea is selling them. For fat stacks of cash. Because russia at least HAS cash, but north korea is undergoing substantial and painful recent financial issues and are broke. Now, it's kind of a headache to explain what "broke" even means in north korea's context, because it has to be overlaid with the "usual broke" – ugly conditions of financial hardship and infrastructural crisis are their standard condition, because the country is simultaneously heavily sanctioned and spectacularly mismanaged at once, and has been unable to break through either issue for decades. Broke-to-potentially-famine-levels is the baseline But since the pandemic, there's been significant and growing issues with cashflow, foreign currency reserve, and trade deficits, and it is causing pressing concerns that threaten breakdown of a number of the country's priority issue projects. They recently engaged in a mass closure of embassies across the world, as far as I can tell the largest since the March of Hardship, and this is a pretty important financial indicator to pay attention to, as the dprk utilizes embassies as revenue generators. They have to sustain themselves with income from things like running construction contracts, smuggling, shady crypto poo poo, illegal trade, money laundering, etc. For various reasons, this has been fading out painfully. I'll admit that its not impossible that russia is gladhanding these deals with some sort of promise of military modernization collaboration or partnership to get the north's space program up to speed. Easy assurances to make, honestly, through the magic of just lying about poo poo
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Jan 7, 2024 10:34
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I would like to crawl out from my rock for a moment recommend a Foreign Affairs article from Jack Watling titled The War in Ukraine is Not a Stalemate. There’s nothing super new in what is written, but there were a few details I hadn’t seen before. The article is well written and edited. Some interesting tidbits: quote:In July 2022, the United Kingdom, alongside other Ukrainian partners, established Operation Interflex to train Ukrainian troops. At the time, Ukraine desperately needed more units to hold defensive positions, so Interflex set the training program at five weeks, prioritizing skills vital to defensive operations. That five-week regimen still exists, but the mission has fundamentally changed. quote:To regenerate offensive capacity and defend itself against Russian attacks, Ukraine will need approximately 1,800 replacement artillery barrels per year. The handful of barrel machines in Europe cannot meet this demand. Then lastly, the latest freeWar on the Rocks episode Ukraine Prepares for 2024 was quite solid as usual with Kofman. Good overview of the artillery and funding debacle which will play out this year.
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Jan 7, 2024 16:09
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Kavros posted:Just as a heads up, this read on the situation is pretty far from any probable reality. It's not being done for any kind of military equipment "help in turn," there's no expectation that russia is going to be able or even willing to jump in and invest in the modernization of the dprk's military forces (or even if they could competently manage the proposed 'upgrades',) this doesn't stand to jump north korea up in ~dangerousness~ That Russia had to work with DPRK speaks volumes about Russian desperation.
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Jan 7, 2024 16:30
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Now I want a sequel to The Interview where Kim is a cryptobro instead of a Katy Perry fan. Just walls upon walls of stolen apes.
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Jan 7, 2024 18:13
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North Korea selling weapons to Russia is all about generating foreign cash reserves for the Kim family and not some ideological "fighting the west via proxy" or anything like that. If you want to go down the rabbit hole that is the North Korean foreign cash machine, look up "Bureau 39". They're involved in everything from laundering counterfeit currency, to weapons sales, to running restaurants in other countries with what amounts to slave labor. Basically, if there is some activity that can generate cash for the regime, legally or illegally, they're doing it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hhYJcOIuVGA
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Jan 7, 2024 18:46
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notwithoutmyanus posted:I'd be skeptical that North Korea is entirely broke when they're making billions off of crypto idiots. A billion or two isn't really covering the bills, especially considering what they used to be intaking from their embassy work, both legitimate and black-market styled – it really was a wide ranging operation to bring in foreign currency stores by any means necessary, which is why it is so interesting that much of it has collapsed and been shut down this year. Keep in mind that we're talking about a country in a perpetual economic postapocalypse that is credibly suggested to be spending a third of its entire gdp (!) on its military, mostly to maintain civil control. When I say that they're having trouble paying the bills, it's not really an issue like being able to sustain wages or even food rations for the nationalized labor of the populace or anything. 'bills' means hard cashflow requirements for access to materials, technology, equipment, and other various non-substitutable imports required by priority projects of the WPK, things like nuclear development and frequent test launches, or priority maintenance of a core of facilities and infrastructure that absolutely have to be kept functional. For various, mostly obvious reasons regarding national nonservice of debts, most really want payment up front for any services or materials rendered.
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Jan 7, 2024 19:31
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notwithoutmyanus posted:I'd be skeptical that North Korea is entirely broke when they're making billions off of crypto idiots. This probably gave them some breathing room (and is intensifying) but I have no idea how much they need to operate. Single-digit billions is actually not much money at all for a country. This is like my nephew thinking I’m rich because I have 50$.
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Jan 7, 2024 20:29
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I suspect that Russia is not super keen on giving a ton of cash to NK when Russia is short on foreign currencies itself; however Russia has ample resources in oil, produce, fertilizers, minerals etc. all of which NK needs.
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Jan 7, 2024 20:44
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A little late to the NK missile discussion but I saw this and thought it was an interesting theory: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ifhkg73VhOg&t=269s The gist being part of the deal between is to use the missiles to collect data for the North Koreans about the efficacy of their missiles. It could have even been the North Korean's idea.
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Jan 8, 2024 18:00
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It sucks for Russia to be in the position to be beta testing weapons. Will these missiles blow up in our face? Who knows! Desperate times I guess.
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Jan 8, 2024 19:48
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