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Looking like around +45% for the year. List of good trades: Short volatility. Bad trades: all the others that were little tiny gambles to keep me amused.
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Dec 30, 2023 09:57
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Pastrami posted:Looking like around +45% for the year. Oh wow, +45% to the whole portfolio, YoY? That's amazing, and I'm crazy envious. For me, it's only around +10% when I account for all the volatility. My "tiny gambles to keep me amused" were great at first, but went downhill as my beginner's luck ran out. On the bright side, the cumulative total return is +65% what it was 1 year ago. September and October really hosed me up but the EoY bull run put me back where I was. I think my biggest takeaway for the year is that I should just ease in and out of VTI when the market goes on a bull/bear run, and leave it alone when it's ranging. I don't know if that's a good idea from a tax perspective, though, because every time I'd ease out it'd be a taxable event and so maybe it wouldn't be worth it.
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Dec 30, 2023 18:21
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Effectively the story of the year for me was doing largely nothing due to having no money, and interest rates being so insanely sky high that I didn't want to buy anything on margin. The previous year I'd sold off a pile of speculative tech shitcos to reduce risk as the market was dying and my taxable account ultimately held just three equities, MSFT, AAPL and AMD. Luckily it just so seems to happen that those were good ones to hold (especially in the last few months... thx AMD). That's up 115% YoY. I couldn't help myself from doing some timid stock picking speculation in my registered tax free account, where I had a bit more capital available (which I shouldn't be doing!) but I did so any way in extremely low amounts. In some of those accounts I also took some profit from some oil positions as they stagnated and more into certain tech names SHOP, META, NVDA as confidence in tech returned. That was a good move. Ultimately these accounts largely tracked the S&P500 index (due to the accounts being dominated by S&P500 ETF) but slightly worse due to my fiddling lol. Another thing I started playing around with in my Canadian tax free account was making some very small positions in some high dividend stocks (REITs etc) on a theory that they may increase in value as interest rates decline. We'll see if that comes to pass or not in the new year hopefully if the BoC/Fed finally drop rates. So far through the year they've been largely flat. At the moment amongst my small speculative bets, it's all largely flat with no big losers or winners, but there's two notable winners from these very small "for fun" positions. CWB - Canada Western Bank, business oriented bank. up +26% since I bought. Not bad! CELH - Celcius. Sugar water. +9% rn but previously was waaay up in the double digits. Biggest regret: not buying AVGO despite thinking about doing so all the time. Femtosecond fucked around with this message at 21:31 on Dec 30, 2023 |
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Dec 30, 2023 21:22
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Love Stole the Day posted:Oh wow, +45% to the whole portfolio, YoY? Correct. Didn’t manage to beat QQQ I’m pretty sure. But was better than last year’s +18%. If I could suppress my urge to do discretionary gambling I would probably be up another 5-10% (will be looking into this once 1099s come in I’m sure).
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Dec 30, 2023 23:36
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Pastrami posted:Correct. Didn’t manage to beat QQQ I’m pretty sure. But was better than last year’s +18%. If I could suppress my urge to do discretionary gambling I would probably be up another 5-10% (will be looking into this once 1099s come in I’m sure). if you trade UVXY or SVIX or SVOL shares in a tax advantaged account like an IRA do you still have to fill out a K-1? anyone know?
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Dec 30, 2023 23:40
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Not sure, I trade in taxable. UVXY/other Vol ETF/P options seem to be afforded 1256 treatment so there is a decent tax advantage there already.
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Dec 30, 2023 23:46
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Hadlock posted:
Final guesses through midnight Pacific time tonight We only have 7 entries so far, your odds of winning are reasonably high
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Dec 31, 2023 09:29
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place your bets for two things this year (please copy and paste and fill in your values DON'T QUOTE IT, quotes don't show up in forums/thread search and I'm going to compile the chart using search looking for the unique identifier first line there that says 2024...faa9
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140% for the year over here. Mostly on the backs of NVO, RACE, ASO calls, and some smart GOOG trades. I feel pretty good about that. Here's hoping for similar performance in 2024.
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Dec 31, 2023 11:09
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Fun money account was only up 10% this year... took a big L early in the year and spent the rest shell-shocked and slowly clawing it back while not trying to assume too much risk. The retirement account did great though, up 60%. Only crapto position I had was BTC and that did well this year too. Overall a great year.
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Jan 2, 2024 00:26
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Up 17.7% this year, which is really nice. I started this account 4 years ago and am up 44% overall, which is a pretty good result. I'm a total fool though - I was looking at my total history, and there was a time in Nov 2021 where my portfolio was up 440%. This is on a base of $40k - this was borderline 'life changing' money, and I had a portfolio that peaked at 200k. I ended up selling very little at that point, somehow thinking number always go up. It makes for a graph that's kinda depressing. Anyway, 2022 was absolutely brutal, and 2023 was a trend upwards, which was nice, but I get to play this game of, 'what if I just sold when I was up a shitload' -- I know it's not worth thinking about because you could 'what if' your way into a whole pile of things, but still...
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Jan 2, 2024 00:59
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I cut out a bunch of crap from my fun money portfolio earlier this year. For 2023, I was up 40%, most of which are unrealized gains as my investments into AAPL, VTI and URNM have all performed really well.
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Jan 2, 2024 01:41
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Forgot to post my roll for this week. Juicy premium!
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Jan 2, 2024 15:21
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Bah, should have dropped RIVN last week when it was up more. But I closed it today anyway, still at a profit, but not really an impressive one. I feel like it's going to struggle for a while, though.
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Jan 3, 2024 16:39
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Aaaaand I'm out of my main KOLD play. Died too fast and I decided to cover. Back to the volatility mines! 
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Jan 5, 2024 16:22
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Getting back into UNG at 5 Is paying off. Pretty soon I’ll be even.
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Jan 9, 2024 19:19
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https://twitter.com/SECGov/status/1744829327294837236?s=20 probably bad for coinbase long term even if they're an exchange for the ETFs? their fee slices will be poo poo initial green candle in /btc has already retraced I hate crypto but this is trader news
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Jan 9, 2024 22:16
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Actually, no https://twitter.com/GaryGensler/status/1744833049064288387
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Jan 9, 2024 22:28
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pmchem posted:https://twitter.com/SECGov/status/1744829327294837236?s=20 https://twitter.com/GaryGensler/status/1744833049064288387 well good news then the account was hacked - Elon is very good security
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Jan 9, 2024 22:28
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just lmao crypto, of course, is always a scam
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Jan 9, 2024 22:29
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pmchem posted:just lmao Nice 3000 point swing in 15 minutes on that news though!
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Jan 9, 2024 22:31
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pixaal posted:https://twitter.com/GaryGensler/status/1744833049064288387 This is amazing and will surely convince the SEC that the bitcoin market is not manipulated
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Jan 9, 2024 22:36
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Crypto enthusiasts in my Orbit are taking this as good news. You can't trust the fed or the SEC or anything relating to Modern monetary policy. On account of it could be manipulated easily, by... crypto enthusiasts
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Jan 10, 2024 01:34
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 Sorry I'm behind but I'm all out of Natty until NGH drops below $2.50 and KOLD gets a bit more IV juice. In other news, I'm fully back in the short volatility mines. Had some UVIX and UVXY shorts that died this morning. New set for next week is lined up.  EDIT: Now shorting WING for earnings as a discretionary/hate trade. Wish me luck goons! 
Zephyris fucked around with this message at 21:53 on Jan 11, 2024 |
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Jan 10, 2024 17:33
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https://twitter.com/John_Hempton/status/1745918858496762127?s=20 every now and then hempton has real bangers
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Jan 12, 2024 22:25
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pmchem posted:https://twitter.com/John_Hempton/status/1745918858496762127?s=20 I'm unsure why hiring managers from a commodity chemical company to run another commodity chemical company that differs in terms of feed stocks is a sign of idiocy. They probably know a lot of chemists and process engineers. But I don't know anything about these fund managers.
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Jan 13, 2024 02:25
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it seems to be less a commodity chemical company and more a hype machine desperately trying to convince the market they can make the novel and untested at scale process they licensed from P&G for cheap work and totally change everything, dude, if everyone keeps throwing enough money at them. I definitely don't see commodity chemical company CEOs regularly posting to youtube demonstrating the hacks they're implementing to keep the works from getting clogged with diaper beads. Or posting to youtube at all Or acknowledging that quarterly figures are dependent on physical objects that exist in meatspace https://youtu.be/YqvJo2ETeXg https://youtu.be/_cJgKvUxr4M
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Jan 13, 2024 03:43
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 nice viz of recent multiple expansion in tech
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Jan 13, 2024 16:51
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Hmm maybe it's time to invest in BYD. Didn't realize that they were in the EU and Aus markets. Hedge for the possibility that these Chinese companies have caught the big Japanese auto makers sleeping and blow past them. Stock trading under BYDDY (ADR China) and BYDDF (ADR HK). quote:It’s Not Tesla in BYD’s Sights. It’s the Whole Car Industry
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Jan 14, 2024 00:59
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I was impressed with BYDs years ago, and they seem to have gotten a lot better https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8c-9tb6ZmyY
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Jan 14, 2024 01:02
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But I also swore I wouldn't invest in chinese companies anymore, after the whole "hey we transferred all our people and assets to another company overnight, so now you own a share of an empty warehouse".
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Jan 14, 2024 01:03
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The value proposition for investing in a car company is so much more complex than it used to be - charging networks, battery technology, government subsidies, supply networks for chips, etc. I almost question why I would invest in BYD or Tesla when NVDA is such a sure bet
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Jan 14, 2024 07:04
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Ubiquitus posted:The value proposition for investing in a car company is so much more complex than it used to be - charging networks, battery technology, government subsidies, supply networks for chips, etc. Maybe it's just the optimist in me, but I also feel like we're seeing a public opinion shift away from car dependent infrastructure, and wanting to see a push towards more traditional forms of urban development and more investment in mass transit. Like, personally I'm still holding a fair bit of F for some reason, which feels more and more stupid as time goes on, and I'm thinking I may get out after the next dividend.
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Jan 14, 2024 08:40
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Ubiquitus posted:The value proposition for investing in a car company is so much more complex than it used to be - charging networks, battery technology, government subsidies, supply networks for chips, etc. I have a pretty spicy take here: Nvidia has a market cap of 1.35T. In the next 4 - 6 years, the use case of 'AI' will prove to be way more limited then what is currently being suggested, and this company that is selling every enterprise card it can 6 months before it's even produced at jacked up prices will all of a sudden find itself with stock to spare. Nvidia is over-valued on the time scale of several years.
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Jan 14, 2024 08:52
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I'm pretty bullish on the idea that the use case for AI is virtually unlimited particularly for stuff like service jobs like cooking and cleaning and sewing garments. Toyota has already applied modern machine learning to robotics arms and doing stuff like flipping burgers and pancakes with very little training data (like, fewer than 100 repetitions) and applied to like 50 common actions (ironing clothes, making a latte etc) and we're only 18 months into all this we don't even have common frameworks yet and barely can agree on shared terminology. We're like 2 years out from dropping the cost of a bipedal android thing by a factor of 10. That said, yes I think in like 10 years we'll know how to efficiently train and store a "model". Right now we're just brute forcing everything, but eventually we'll look back at A100 GPUs quaintly, as we do today with the CRAY-1 supercomputer being outclassed by a raspberry pi 5 by about 5x. The demand will plummet. I can already train a lovely LLM on a MacBook pro m3. Once you train an adequate model there's no additional need to do it again. I did the math the other day a guy trained an LLM roughly on par with chatgpt 3.5 (as scored by multiple independent parties) using about $350 worth of A100 GPU time; 72 hours x 4 cards I think. We're already getting alarmingly efficient at training these things. A new style of training has come up where they train deep but narrow LLMs and then weave 2-5 together which seems promising. Right now IMO the only thing that's still a big question mark is how do we now develop the executive function to manage all these AI models we generate TL;DR bullish on Nvidia for AI for next 2 years, not at all as a long term hold certainly not more than 5 In terms of actual use, we actively use it at work. And we're gonna expand how much we use it by like 5-fold and it's not even a novel use case. Summarizing a PDF into anywhere from one sentence up to five pages is a total game changer for a lot of knowledge industries I'm real curious to see what comes out of Honda and Toyota they have unlimited research funds, time and patience to tinker with this stuff, and industrial muscle to realize their Gundam destiny. Or just domestic robots. Tesla has shown off some stuff but my money is on Japan still
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Jan 14, 2024 09:22
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https://twitter.com/ArtkoCapital/status/1746382117859168532?s=20 if you don't invest in tech, well...
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Jan 14, 2024 15:18
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Canine Blues Arooo posted:I have a pretty spicy take here: Nvidia has a market cap of 1.35T. In the next 4 - 6 years, the use case of 'AI' will prove to be way more limited then what is currently being suggested, and this company that is selling every enterprise card it can 6 months before it's even produced at jacked up prices will all of a sudden find itself with stock to spare. Nvidia is over-valued on the time scale of several years. I think you’ll see quantum computing revolutionalize science - and we will 100% need AI for that. It’s nowhere close to over. That said I have no idea about NVDA’s outlook on making quantum chips, but they’d be dumb as hell to not be considering it
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Jan 14, 2024 15:30
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Baddog posted:But I also swore I wouldn't invest in chinese companies anymore, after the whole "hey we transferred all our people and assets to another company overnight, so now you own a share of an empty warehouse". This is why we as a country are failing. Here it takes years to defraud your investors out of all their money. China, overnight. That's capitalism err communism.
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Jan 14, 2024 16:56
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Canine Blues Arooo posted:I have a pretty spicy take here: Nvidia has a market cap of 1.35T. In the next 4 - 6 years, the use case of 'AI' will prove to be way more limited then what is currently being suggested, and this company that is selling every enterprise card it can 6 months before it's even produced at jacked up prices will all of a sudden find itself with stock to spare. Nvidia is over-valued on the time scale of several years. Yeah, I pretty much agree. NVDA is a good company, and they are almost certainly going to continue to build strong products that drive a lot of revenue. But, the stock is up like 500% just in the past 15 months. The market has priced in not only being successful, but wildly so, with continued high demand, little competition, and strong pricing power. Even if demand does stay high for AI hardware, Nvidia has competitors big and small that are taking the challenge pretty seriously. Both Intel and AMD look to be performance competitive (or at least price/performance) in 2024, the only remaining question is if their software will be good enough for the market.
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Jan 14, 2024 16:58
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I would have told you ten years ago Broadcom's prospects were poor, and, well
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Jan 14, 2024 20:06
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Red posted:I would have told you ten years ago Broadcom's prospects were poor, and, well 10 years ago, Broadcom had a market cap of <$100B. Theres a lot less room to run for NVIDIA at $1.3T. Also, I dont think Nvidia (the company) has poor prospects, I think they are going to continue to do well. Nvidia (the company) is going to need to grow a lot to justify the current valuation of Nvidia (the stock), though.
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Jan 14, 2024 20:35
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