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Dr. Lunchables
Dec 27, 2012

IRL DEBUFFED KOBOLD



Boy has Tavares fallen off hard. I don’t expect much out of him but he hasn’t scored a point in the last six games.

Maybe he puts the burners on and finishes with a 30 goal season, but the past month hasn’t been a good indicator toward that.

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Chad Sexington
May 26, 2005

I think he made a beautiful post and did a great job and he is good.

Cartoon Man posted:

The Philadelphia Flyers are going to follow the same trajectory as the Philadelphia Eagles and I’m going to lol all the way.

As for the Caps, if Charlie Lindgren can stay healthy, maybe we can steal a wild card spot, but I give it a 25% chance of happening.

That's literally the Vegas line for Caps making the playoffs.

Mr. Fish
Sep 13, 2017

INLAND EMPIRE — This is a team with a lot of past, but little present. And almost no future.
Owen Tippett dear lord almighty what a finish

Dr. Lunchables posted:

Boy has Tavares fallen off hard. I don’t expect much out of him but he hasn’t scored a point in the last six games.

heehee :smug:

Bard Maddox
Feb 15, 2012

I'm just a sick guy, I'm really just a dirty guy.

Dr. Lunchables posted:

Boy has Tavares fallen off hard. I don’t expect much out of him but he hasn’t scored a point in the last six games.

Maybe he puts the burners on and finishes with a 30 goal season, but the past month hasn’t been a good indicator toward that.

on one hand, he's second on the Leafs and fifth in the entire league this season in Moneypuck xG with 23.8 (Matthews @ 26.7, Nylander @ 18, Marner @ 13) which is the second-highest xG/60 of his career. he's shooting five full percentage points under his career average. he still has a 54% xGF share in those last 7 games even with an absolutely abysmal 10% xGF share against Colorado mixed in there so there's lots of room for positive regression back to the mean over the back half of the season

on the other hand, he is getting sheltered with a majority of offensive zone starts especially recently and also he's an overpaid bum never gonna win a Cup and all the Core Four are soft as hell (sorry)

Bard Maddox fucked around with this message at 16:35 on Jan 19, 2024

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



Something that hasn’t really been brought up in this tough stretch is that the Leafs have played more than every other night with coast to coast to coast travel in just over two weeks, and this weekend will cap their second consecutive week playing 4 games in 7.

The Leafs are running a lot of guys who’ve lost a step and are already up there in age between Tavares, Brodie, and Gio, and all of those guys are struggling mightily. I don’t think going from barely playing to starting every game has been kind to Jones either. They’ve been trying to compensate by having more rest days and fewer skates but that causes its own problems.

In context i don’t think it’s too surprising they’ve been jumping out to leads and having trouble closing them out with this schedule

BRAKE FOR MOOSE
Jun 6, 2001

Koopa Kid posted:

Something that hasn’t really been brought up in this tough stretch is that the Leafs have played more than every other night with coast to coast to coast travel in just over two weeks, and this weekend will cap their second consecutive week playing 4 games in 7.

The Leafs are running a lot of guys who’ve lost a step and are already up there in age between Tavares, Brodie, and Gio, and all of those guys are struggling mightily. I don’t think going from barely playing to starting every game has been kind to Jones either. They’ve been trying to compensate by having more rest days and fewer skates but that causes its own problems.

In context i don’t think it’s too surprising they’ve been jumping out to leads and having trouble closing them out with this schedule

on the other hand, the Leafs lost to a team also on a back to back also off a west coast road trip that got stuck in an airport and arrived late to the rink

The Leafs slide is totally within the realm of good team variance but it was also bad enough to push them into the playoff hunt rather than a playoff lock

mennoknight
Nov 24, 2003

I WILL JUST EAT ONE MORE SANDWICH
OH MY HEAD EXPLORDED I'M JAY FATSTER
and they won last night because a puck bounced off someone's glove.

Misanthrope
Jun 10, 2001

QUACK QUACK QUACK QUACK QUACK

Koopa Kid posted:

Something that hasn’t really been brought up in this tough stretch is that the Leafs have played more than every other night with coast to coast to coast travel in just over two weeks, and this weekend will cap their second consecutive week playing 4 games in 7.

in the western conference we call that a normal road trip

Aphrodite
Jun 27, 2006

Toronto got the cushiest schedule imaginable for a decade so now they're all soft baby losers.

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



mennoknight posted:

and they won last night because a puck bounced off someone's glove.

Calgary scored two off of silly bounces, if we wanna rewrite history on that basis they still lose

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



Misanthrope posted:

in the western conference we call that a normal road trip

I'm not saying other teams don't go through it, I'm saying Dubas stacked the team full of slow old guys on the downswing so the Leafs are particularly poorly positioned to deal with these stretches in the year. They're not poorly done by, they're poorly constructed and these time periods are where it shows.

Wonderllama
Mar 15, 2003

anyone wanna andreyfuck?
in my opinion, the problem with the leafs is that they are just really annoying to talk about and are perfectly fine as long as no one posts about them.

Dr. Lunchables
Dec 27, 2012

IRL DEBUFFED KOBOLD



Let’s all talk about the Detroit red wings. Lalonde finally bitched at them and made them try to play defense. And it’s working!

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



I'm mad that the Leafs did the Wings a favour by knocking Kane out

Aphrodite
Jun 27, 2006

Wonderllama posted:

in my opinion, the problem with the leafs is that they are just really annoying to talk about and are perfectly fine as long as no one posts about them.

Right right, the Leafs are double poo poo experiment.

Precambrian Video Games
Aug 19, 2002



Sounds like y'all want to read this entire in-depth analysis of why the Leafs lost against the Oilers (there are a bunch of videos and gifs afterwards which I will be kind enough not to copypaste but you will click on this tremendous content):

quote:

As of Wednesday, the Leafs are who people have believed them to be in previous seasons: an offensive threat that doesn’t defend well.

They’ve got tons of upside – elite offensive players who can break open a game at any minute – and plenty of downside, including a D-core that, past Morgan Rielly and generously Jake McCabe, doesn’t contain a player who can consistently make impactful plays.

The reason we’re hearing Sheldon Keefe’s name more in regards to the “hot seat” lately is partially because the Leafs don’t often lose four in a row (let alone on blown leads), but also because some of it seems manageable. And I say “manageable,” because if the same players are making the same poor plays over and again, you can either convince them to try something different, demote them, or scratch them entirely.

I think the Leafs are at that fork in the road with some guys.

Within Toronto’s accepted strength (offence) lies a weakness, and a major area of drop-off from previous seasons: they don’t carry the play in the O-zone anymore. This was most on-display in their blown lead against Detroit, who was on the second half of a back-to-back with weird travel that got them to the game late. The Leafs should’ve hung on to pucks in the O-zone, worn Detroit down, and waited for an opening against a tired team. Instead, they repeatedly tried to force passes into the slot to covered teammates, handed the Wings the puck back in the process, and found themselves heading back towards their own zone.

Here’s the Leafs’ rankings in offensive categories going into Thursday’s game against the Flames:

Expected goals: 4th
Goals: 6th
Slot shots: 1st
Inner slot shots: 1st
Slot passes: 1st
O-zone possession time: 24th

Yes, they’re 24th in O-zone possession time, where the previous seasons (starting last year and working back) they were 7th, 3rd, and 2nd.

Toronto is currently top five in all of rush chances, cycle chances, forecheck chances, and rebound chances. And, again, 24th in O-zone possession time.

So, what you have here is an offence that’s constantly pushing to create with Hail Mary’s into the middle, which does put the onus on the opposing defence to defend well, but there’s no patience, no long-range strategy, no game state awareness from the Leafs. They lead the league in “pass to slot tendency” according to SportLogiq (22.8 per cent of O-zone passes), which matches the eye-test.

But then there’s O-zone passing success rate, a stat in which the top teams are Colorado, Edmonton, Pittsburgh, Winnipeg and the NY Rangers. The Toronto Maple Leafs sit 32nd there, just behind Philadelphia, with a success rate about 8 per cent worse than the Avalanche.

To really hammer this home with numbers: The Leafs are also 32nd in the NHL in “offensive touches success rate” in the O-zone as well (the previous three years they were 8th, 13th, and 7th).

To summarize, the Leafs have the worst O-zone passing success rate and the worst O-zone touches, which ends up as the 24th ranked team in O-zone possession time. You do not have to be a hound dog to sniff out that connection. If you’re looking for ways to protect leads in the third period as the Leafs are, you can start by making less hope passes that become turnovers, and prioritize playing in the offensive zone more.

Me, I would simply scratch Giordano and whichever interchangeable fourth liner is currently most useless, stop feeding the puck to fuckin' Simon Benoit at the point, and actually playing Robertson and Timmins.

Oh I think it was Mike Johnson last night who said regarding the defensive struggles that "Keefe didn't just forget how to coach" and while I don't think he's personally responsible for Brodie falling off a cliff and most of Treliving's offseason signings being godawful, he could I dunno try to do something.

Precambrian Video Games fucked around with this message at 18:39 on Jan 19, 2024

Twin Cinema
Jun 1, 2006



Playoffs are no big deal,
don't have a crap attack.
I don't really care about the games right now, but I do enjoy watching Matthews quest for 70.

triple sulk
Sep 17, 2014



The Flyers have one (1) game left in their season which isn't in the eastern time zone (Chicago)

Misanthrope
Jun 10, 2001

QUACK QUACK QUACK QUACK QUACK

Koopa Kid posted:

Calgary scored two off of silly bounces, if we wanna rewrite history on that basis they still lose

agreed... and Calgary played like rear end in the 3rd, down by one going into the 3rd and they generate 5 shots...


the hand pass replay review was just annoying... there was an Oilers game a couple of weeks ago where an offside review took like 10 minutes and it's like, really? Did that millimeter really impact the play?

I don't really have a solution, I'm just poo poo-posting/complaining

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!

Diet Crack posted:

If the Devils lose to the Jackets again after losing to the Habs... I dfk.

I really don't enjoy saying this but they need to blow out the coaching staff. This isn't working.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN
Who wants a free Todd Reirden?

mennoknight
Nov 24, 2003

I WILL JUST EAT ONE MORE SANDWICH
OH MY HEAD EXPLORDED I'M JAY FATSTER

Misanthrope posted:

agreed... and Calgary played like rear end in the 3rd, down by one going into the 3rd and they generate 5 shots...


the hand pass replay review was just annoying... there was an Oilers game a couple of weeks ago where an offside review took like 10 minutes and it's like, really? Did that millimeter really impact the play?

I don't really have a solution, I'm just poo poo-posting/complaining

yeah I don't want to fix it or know how but gently caress me it's stupid

Twin Cinema
Jun 1, 2006



Playoffs are no big deal,
don't have a crap attack.
My expert opinion is that New Jersey is doing poorly because they have dogshit goalies.

CBJSprague24
Dec 5, 2010

another game at nationwide arena. everybody keeps asking me if they can fuck the cannon. buddy, they don't even let me fuck it

https://twitter.com/Aportzline/status/1748424303069053168

:rip: Spencer Martin, we barely knew ye.

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!

Twin Cinema posted:

My expert opinion is that New Jersey is doing poorly because they have dogshit goalies.

Largely yes but that isn't the whole story. They have had a lot of guys REALLY regress this season on the blue line and they just aren't the same offensive team without Jack and Hamilton.

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



Precambrian Video Games posted:

Oh I think it was Mike Johnson last night who said regarding the defensive struggles that "Keefe didn't just forget how to coach" and while I don't think he's personally responsible for Brodie falling off a cliff and most of Treliving's offseason signings being godawful, he could I dunno try to do something.

This is a funny argument because it implies that the Leafs weren’t well known for late-game collapses, bizarre gaffes and underperforming their percentages and rates in previous years under Keefe… when that’s exactly what they were known for. The process has always sucked but now age and injury are making what was already there worse, and Keefe looks like a guy who’s all out of ideas.

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X
The Devils played way over their heads last year and it was always likely they would regress back toward their years-long established level this year. Next year it'll be the Flyers and Canucks.

That's my cutting edge analysis.

Koopa Kid posted:

This is a funny argument because it implies that the Leafs weren’t well known for late-game collapses, bizarre gaffes and underperforming their percentages and rates in previous years under Keefe… when that’s exactly what they were known for.

It's funny because it implies Keefe ever knew how to coach.

Good Soldier Svejk
Jul 5, 2010

I see the Canucks just extended Rutherford another 3 years so... Best win the cup this year

Arivia
Mar 17, 2011

Good Soldier Svejk posted:

I see the Canucks just extended Rutherford another 3 years so... Best win the cup this year

yeah this feels like a big mistake that's gonna really gently caress them over

OldSenileGuy
Mar 13, 2001
Wow Torts really has this Flyers team firing on all cylinders.

And a a pre-emptive welcome to the coach of the 2025-2026 Philadelphia Flyers, Alain Vigneault!

The Dirty Burger
Aug 24, 2007

1st team all star
+
2nd degree manslaughter
=
3rd world clothing line

OldSenileGuy posted:

Wow Torts really has this Flyers team firing on all cylinders.

And a a pre-emptive welcome to the coach of the 2025-2026 Philadelphia Flyers, Alain Vigneault!

For real, what an rear end beating last night was

https://x.com/dimfilipovic/status/1748151991782531348?s=46&t=2hVb1vPytx9OUpdE0UPz6Q

fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018

mcmagic posted:

I really don't enjoy saying this but they need to blow out the coaching staff. This isn't working.

I don't get this perspective. I've heard it a fair bit here from NJ fans. Maybe some of the assistant coaches could use a turnover?

The Devils had an incredible breakout season last year and I think Ruff has earned himself a bit of a leash considering the multiple injuries to major stars all season and having the worst goaltending in the NHL, plus some regression from players who were supposed to steady the blueline. Also, Jack Hughes loves him which does matter a little bit.

Can you explain a little bit why you think the Devils should clean house after an uninspiring 40 games where a lot of things went wrong? Shouldn't Ruff and co. be given trust to right the ship, instead of being panic fired with the team still in striking distance of a playoff spot, able to add whoever they want at the deadline, and getting star players back from injury at various points in the future?

fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018

Everything went right for the Devils last year. I think it was fair to think that they wouldn't be so lucky this year and would regress. I did not think they'd win 50+ games again, but I did and still do think they'll wind up with 44-48, maybe be a 96-100pt team. As long as they make the playoffs, they have as good a shot as anyone.

Doing a little math, they're currently 22-17-3 after 42 games. 40 games remaining. If they figure it out a bit and have a solid second half, let's say they go 24-13-3. That puts them at 46-30-6 for 98 points and a probable wild card. Let's hope they can go on a heater.

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!

fawning deference posted:

I don't get this perspective. I've heard it a fair bit here from NJ fans. Maybe some of the assistant coaches could use a turnover?

The Devils had an incredible breakout season last year and I think Ruff has earned himself a bit of a leash considering the multiple injuries to major stars all season and having the worst goaltending in the NHL, plus some regression from players who were supposed to steady the blueline. Also, Jack Hughes loves him which does matter a little bit.

Can you explain a little bit why you think the Devils should clean house after an uninspiring 40 games where a lot of things went wrong? Shouldn't Ruff and co. be given trust to right the ship, instead of being panic fired with the team still in striking distance of a playoff spot, able to add whoever they want at the deadline, and getting star players back from injury at various points in the future?

I think a lot of the things that they are doing like lazy turnovers in their zone, losing every single back end of back to back's while being one of the youngest teams in the NHL and the lack of production they have gotten from guys like Meier and even Teffoli recently seem like coaching. The poo poo he was pulling with Holtz also just rubbed me the wrong way when he a lot of guys committing bad turnovers and he singles out a rookie who is just starting to play better.... I understand they have had injuries and bad goaltending but they have too many dogshit no show games. Especially against bad teams at home.

fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018

mcmagic posted:

I think a lot of the things that they are doing like lazy turnovers in their zone, losing every single back end of back to back's while being one of the youngest teams in the NHL and the lack of production they have gotten from guys like Meier and even Teffoli recently seem like coaching. I understand they have had injuries and bad goaltending but they have too many dogshit no show games. Especially against bad teams at home.

Can't really argue Toffoli man, he was amazing for the first quarter season and now he's regressing to the norm but he's hardly a problem for them. Meier I think has been playing hurt most of the year. I'm of the philosophy that sometimes it's the players, and the Devils have not been bad enough to warrant panic firing your coaching staff after a 52 win season.

It also should be said, if Vanecek had been even just okay this year, they'd be near the top of the Metro despite all the injuries and nobody would be floating firing him. I can't blame Ruff for both of his goaltenders falling off a cliff.

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!

fawning deference posted:

Can't really argue Toffoli man, he was amazing for the first quarter season and now he's regressing to the norm but he's hardly a problem for them. Meier I think has been playing hurt most of the year. I'm of the philosophy that sometimes it's the players, and the Devils have not been bad enough to warrant panic firing your coaching staff after a 52 win season.

It also should be said, if Vanecek had been even just okay this year, they'd be near the top of the Metro despite all the injuries and nobody would be floating firing him. I can't blame Ruff for both of his goaltenders falling off a cliff.

Panic would've been a month ago. It's it's getting late now.

fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018

mcmagic posted:

Panic would've been a month ago. It's it's getting late now.

Agree to disagree. I don't think it is, they're still well within the WC race and getting Jack back soon. They're as capable as any team in the league of going on a burner, and ya know, if they fall just short of the playoffs this year, I still wouldn't fire Ruff. That's more controversial though.

Ginette Reno
Nov 18, 2006

How Doers get more done
Fun Shoe
The Devils have been plagued by injuries to key players and have horrific goaltending. I don't think there's a lot more to it than that for them.

They still have excellent underlying 5v5 numbers and if they were getting adequate goaltending they'd easily be a playoff team.

fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018

Pretty much, but to defend mcmagic, there is something different about this team that is worth pointing out. Some of their depth guys have genuinely regressed, and their puck management is a lot worse this year. Their 5on5 numbers are good but not great from what I understand, and that's only the case after a recent uptick. They were winning games 5-4 by scoring 3 power-play goals most games for a while.

I do have concerns about their defensive structure, their compete, and their cohesion.

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mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!

fawning deference posted:

Pretty much, but to defend mcmagic, there is something different about this team that is worth pointing out. Some of their depth guys have genuinely regressed, and their puck management is a lot worse this year. Their 5on5 numbers are good but not great from what I understand, and that's only the case after a recent uptick. They were winning games 5-4 by scoring 3 power-play goals most games for a while.

I do have concerns about their defensive structure, their compete, and their cohesion.

John Marino and Siegenthaler (I know he's dead now) have gone from playing like 1st pair's to being horrible at times. It's worrying.

mcmagic fucked around with this message at 23:04 on Jan 19, 2024

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