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fatherboxx)
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It's weird that he didn't mention the geolock and just said they were not aware that any were sold to Russia. If, and it's not a small if, Russia can bypass the geolock, it's probably done by spoofing the location somehow, so the terminals wouldn't show up as being in Russia/at the frontlines. Unless Starlink also secretely hide air tags in there, I don't think there is a way to tell if a terminal was sold to someone 'indirectly' if geolocation was off.
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Feb 11, 2024 22:47
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Paladinus posted:It's weird that he didn't mention the geolock and just said they were not aware that any were sold to Russia. If, and it's not a small if, Russia can bypass the geolock, it's probably done by spoofing the location somehow, so the terminals wouldn't show up as being in Russia/at the frontlines. Unless Starlink also secretely hide air tags in there, I don't think there is a way to tell if a terminal was sold to someone 'indirectly' if geolocation was off. As was discussed earlier, geolocking is hard to implement when the war is fought in Ukrainian territory and frontlines are not set in stone. This is particularly problematic if Ukraine starts taking back territory because then their Starlink terminals won't work until they get support from Starlink.
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Feb 11, 2024 22:53
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Nenonen posted:As was discussed earlier, geolocking is hard to implement when the war is fought in Ukrainian territory and frontlines are not set in stone. This is particularly problematic if Ukraine starts taking back territory because then their Starlink terminals won't work until they get support from Starlink. SpaceX and Ukraine need to have representatives in contact daily, redrawing the lines as necessary. It's a problem that can be solved if they want to.
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Feb 11, 2024 22:59
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Deteriorata posted:SpaceX and Ukraine need to have representatives in contact daily, redrawing the lines as necessary. It's a problem that can be solved if they want to. Well that's the thing, I don't think their celebrity billionaire CEO wants that.
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Feb 11, 2024 23:03
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Nenonen posted:As was discussed earlier, geolocking is hard to implement when the war is fought in Ukrainian territory and frontlines are not set in stone. This is particularly problematic if Ukraine starts taking back territory because then their Starlink terminals won't work until they get support from Starlink. It's also got a limited range from which to spoof your location and not immediately fail a simple rationality check; the satellite will know that it's already well out of range of what it is being broadcast. I don't know how limited that range is, but I can't imagine it being too far from the front. It's also a fascinating way to give away your own position to an enemy who isn't going to trust what you say your position is and can do some calculations of their own based on what satellites can hear you along with your strength and their relative doppler shift.
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Feb 11, 2024 23:35
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Volmarias posted:It's also got a limited range from which to spoof your location and not immediately fail a simple rationality check; the satellite will know that it's already well out of range of what it is being broadcast. I don't know how limited that range is, but I can't imagine it being too far from the front. At their altitude starlink satellites would have a maximum footprint diameter of something like 600km (depending on the exact altitude) but I’m sure they’re not each covering their exact maximum footprint, that wouldn’t work at all.
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Feb 12, 2024 04:50
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https://map.ukrdailyupdate.com/ Andrew Perpetua's map updates are looking pretty grim, obviously don't click on icons if you don't want to see pictures etc. I don't think panic is the right response but I do not think people have quite absorbed how dire the situation is for Ukraine currently.
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Feb 12, 2024 05:19
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The Artificial Kid posted:At their altitude starlink satellites would have a maximum footprint diameter of something like 600km (depending on the exact altitude) but I’m sure they’re not each covering their exact maximum footprint, that wouldn’t work at all. I'm not questioning whether you're right or wrong, but it would be interesting to see the math here. I imagine there's an upper limit based entirely on what frequency spectrum/power rating the starlink satellites operate on and a lower limit based on the type of antenna, but I'm not sure if there's anything else in play. I think the bigger problem with spoofing location on the ground terminal side is that the uplink is directional, as previously stated. That means you have an electronically steered antenna trying to do TLE calcs for a given position for all the satellites it "should" be able to see. There's probably some level of error tolerance in there, but if you fake it out too far from where it should be, you're not getting a lock on anything because your antenna is pointing into empty space. Like it would be bonkers if you could somehow fake out the gps location for billing and there's a separate gps location for steering the goddamn antenna.
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Feb 12, 2024 05:23
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Bashez posted:https://map.ukrdailyupdate.com/
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Feb 12, 2024 07:41
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ShadowHawk posted:I see more icons for destroyed Russian things on this map than Ukrainian ones, can you clarify what you're referring to? The recent land changes from Ukraine to contested or Russian controlled. These changes aren't rapid but they're faster than usual and happening on multiple axes. Andrew has explained previously that he tends to get roughly even footage but Ukraine targets vehicles that they map and count and Russia targets positions/people which get mapped but not quite tallied up in the same way. More Russian poo poo getting blown up is a consequence of this strategy and Russia having more poo poo to lose. Bashez fucked around with this message at 08:03 on Feb 12, 2024 |
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Feb 12, 2024 08:00
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WarpedLichen posted:I'm not questioning whether you're right or wrong, but it would be interesting to see the math here. I imagine there's an upper limit based entirely on what frequency spectrum/power rating the starlink satellites operate on and a lower limit based on the type of antenna, but I'm not sure if there's anything else in play. I was thinking purely in terms of line of sight, but also got it wrong, I think I was remembering a figure for a lower altitude. It might be in the thousands of kilometres for each starlink satellite
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Feb 12, 2024 09:49
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Bashez posted:These changes aren't rapid but they're faster than usual and happening on multiple axes. If the Ukrainian armed forces have been sufficiently degraded by their failed offensive and by Russian shaping operations, the front could shatter dramatically
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Feb 12, 2024 23:58
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Enjoy posted:If the Ukrainian armed forces have been sufficiently degraded by their failed offensive and by Russian shaping operations, the front could shatter dramatically This is something people don’t seem to realize. These lines on maps might not be moving much, but the fighting is constant: both sides are expending men and materiel, and barring some unforeseen event, eventually one side is going to suffer some kind of critical shortage of people or things that go boom. Even a temporary shortage might be enough to cause a serious collapse. It is absolutely shameful that the international community has allowed it to reach this point, when we have all the necessary tools to prevent it.
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Feb 13, 2024 01:05
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Enjoy posted:If the Ukrainian armed forces have been sufficiently degraded by their failed offensive and by Russian shaping operations, the front could shatter dramatically The last time the front was broken to an extent (IMHO) was around Lysychansk in May through July 2022. That lead to the Ukrainian armed forces retreating and setting up new defense lines. The only successful penetration operations that could be called a dramatic shattering of the front by the Russian army were in the first few days of the war. And we all saw how that ended up for the Russians. The Russians have shown zero capability of doing any dramatic offensives when faced with resistance. Even resistance by light infantry and irregulars.
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Feb 13, 2024 01:34
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The boring reality of "anything could happen" being technically correct is that "nothing can happen" is also correct and this is just another tuesday.
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Feb 13, 2024 01:49
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Raenir Salazar posted:The boring reality of "anything could happen" being technically correct is that "nothing can happen" is also correct and this is just another tuesday. It's Monday, Lemon.
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Feb 13, 2024 02:00
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KillHour posted:It's Monday, Lemon. It's tuesday for someone.
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Feb 13, 2024 02:18
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ShadowHawk posted:I see more icons for destroyed Russian things on this map than Ukrainian ones, can you clarify what you're referring to? I think the icons are showing attacks not losses. So a red plane indicates a Russian air strike onto Ukraine, not a plane loss.
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Feb 13, 2024 03:08
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KillHour posted:It's Monday, Lemon. SA showing me the time of your post as 2 am, tuesday, is pretty funny. Defeated by time zones 
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Feb 13, 2024 09:25
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When it's Monday here it's already Tuesday in Russia.... 
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Feb 13, 2024 10:04
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Nenonen posted:When it's Monday here it's already Tuesday in Russia.... That's right, they are just that far ahead of Americans.
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Feb 13, 2024 10:08
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https://twitter.com/mediazona_en/status/1756746115506909356?t=l_5UdBJHTp8BF2P6I-Lk-Q&s=19 A silly theory about Nepalis here is that someone back in early 2023 told Prigo about gurkha martial traditions and he immediately got hyped. In reality, its probably just a part of the effort to fool migrant workers from wherever possible into signing up.
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Feb 13, 2024 10:38
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fatherboxx posted:https://twitter.com/mediazona_en/status/1756746115506909356?t=l_5UdBJHTp8BF2P6I-Lk-Q&s=19 Nepalese are very budget conscious (will holiday where it is cheap) as well as will work pretty much anywhere (and there is bound to be a lot of work in Russia now). Despite legend, the average Gurkha is no more brave than any other expat - definitely way more polite and pleasant but not brave. I don't doubt there are foreign legionaries from Nepal in Russia but 15k is like one in 40 on the Russian side of the front? The evidence would be a spike in returning injured/dead versus the past trends. That trend is really a bit short to see what it looked like over time before the stirrings of conflict (and Covid) broke out.
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Feb 13, 2024 11:20
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Electric Wrigglies posted:Despite legend, the average Gurkha is no more brave than any other expat - definitely way more polite and pleasant but not brave. Not sure this is true, but the reasons are to do with self-selection and not any innate fantasy race bullshit sort of thing. There's not many openings for Gurkha units and it's a prestigious job, so those who apply are highly motivated individuals and the ones who get in are usually the keenest of the lot. But your larger point is correct, just grabbing Nepali migrant laborers won't get you an effective fighting force any more than taking random Russians off the street would.
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Feb 13, 2024 11:37
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I recall there have been previous interviews with Nepalese workers who were pressed to choose between jail and front. But forming actual gurkha units would be risky, they might as well defect or go the Czech Legion way if things were not to their liking.
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Feb 13, 2024 12:36
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fatherboxx posted:https://twitter.com/mediazona_en/status/1756746115506909356?t=l_5UdBJHTp8BF2P6I-Lk-Q&s=19 Among the Nepalese recruits media spoke to, some were actual mercenaries who participated in various armed conflicts before, but there was at least one who wasn't. I never thought of Russia as a popular destination for Nepalese migrant workers, so I imagine they targeted people with experience first and then some bullshit their way in somehow or recruiters simply stopped caring about who they recruit as they had quotes to fill. 15k is an astonishing number, even if we assume that a lot of them are not at the frontline.
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Feb 13, 2024 13:07
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:Not sure this is true, but the reasons are to do with self-selection and not any innate fantasy race bullshit sort of thing. There's not many openings for Gurkha units and it's a prestigious job, so those who apply are highly motivated individuals and the ones who get in are usually the keenest of the lot. But your larger point is correct, just grabbing Nepali migrant laborers won't get you an effective fighting force any more than taking random Russians off the street would. It is a prestigious job and if you got into the UK one, it held promise* of retirement in the relative comfort of the UK. That (and reasonable salary compared to other options) was a much larger draw. But sure, some that had not served in Iraq for the British army or whatever had a bit more bravado. I did buy a service Kukri off one though. Really awesome. *that the UK tried to renege on in a really lovely way - read up about it if you like renewing your hate of poms/public service but the TL DR is they gave Gurkhas exception from up-or-out policy so they could keep them at Private pay for decades. Then up--or-outed them months before being eligible for retirement. Hence not eligible for a pension or permanent residency in the UK - after decades or cheap service, back to Nepal for you! Classic British Public Service move.
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Feb 13, 2024 13:08
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Electric Wrigglies posted:It is a prestigious job and if you got into the UK one, it held promise* of retirement in the relative comfort of the UK. That (and reasonable salary compared to other options) was a much larger draw. But sure, some that had not served in Iraq for the British army or whatever had a bit more bravado. I did buy a service Kukri off one though. Really awesome. Not fond of the Brits but that was a lovely way to treat them for sure, ended up that if they had served for four years before 1997 they would be allowed to settle in the UK... after that, all bets are off.
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Feb 13, 2024 13:45
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fatherboxx posted:https://twitter.com/mediazona_en/status/1756746115506909356?t=l_5UdBJHTp8BF2P6I-Lk-Q&s=19 drones don't care where the invaders came from
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Feb 13, 2024 17:19
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Morrow posted:My only concern with the changing of the Ukrainian leadership is wider mobilization probably needs to be on the table. Do you think love can bloom on the battlefield? The answer is no.
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Feb 13, 2024 17:31
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Looks like the Senate passed the aid package for Ukraine and Israel. https://apple.news/AcCmBZa8gSaaTj3XPuJ2tnA quote:Senate passes $95 billion Ukraine, Israel aid package amid GOP divide
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Feb 13, 2024 19:00
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People are saying that the 90 billion dollar bill is dead on arrival in the house but I guess we will see... I can't imagine that the US lets Ukraine collapse, they'll find one way or another to keep them afloat.
Starsfan fucked around with this message at 19:41 on Feb 13, 2024 |
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Feb 13, 2024 19:36
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I thought bills start in the house and go through the senate? Or can it be any direction?
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Feb 13, 2024 19:37
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Starsfan posted:People are saying that the 90 billion dollar bill is dead on arrival in the house but I guess we will see... I can't imagine that the US lets their proxy collapse, they'll find one way or another to keep them afloat. To be clear as this sort of language shouldn't be let slide regardless of intent; Ukraine isn't a US proxy, its a sovereign democratic state being invaded unprovoked by an revanchist imperialist power.
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Feb 13, 2024 19:40
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buglord posted:I thought bills start in the house and go through the senate? Or can it be any direction? Bills that don't explicitly authorize spending can be originated in either house.
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Feb 13, 2024 19:41
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Raenir Salazar posted:To be clear as this sort of language shouldn't be let slide regardless of intent; Ukraine isn't a US proxy, its a sovereign democratic state being invaded unprovoked by an revanchist imperialist power. I changed it to less provocative language, was an oversight on my part to let my personal feelings shade the comment.
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Feb 13, 2024 19:42
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I'm actually curious as to what caused those Republicans to vote in favor AFTER the border stuff was taken off.
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Feb 13, 2024 19:46
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Starsfan posted:People are saying that the 90 billion dollar bill is dead on arrival in the house but I guess we will see... I can't imagine that the US lets Ukraine collapse, they'll find one way or another to keep them afloat. At this point I wouldn't put it past the US to let the US collapse.
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Feb 13, 2024 19:51
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Umbreon posted:I'm actually curious as to what caused those Republicans to vote in favor AFTER the border stuff was taken off. The scuttlebut that I've heard on political talk shows / commentary is that Mitch McConnell and his faction threw their weight behind supporting the bill after Donald Trump took a position against further aid for Ukraine, apparently the theory is if McConnell can force the package through it will be politically embarrassing for Trump? or at the very least it will be a thumb in his eye.. I don't know if it completely makes sense to me but it is apparent that the Republicans in the Senate reversed course on this matter sometime last week.
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Feb 13, 2024 19:52
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Umbreon posted:I'm actually curious as to what caused those Republicans to vote in favor AFTER the border stuff was taken off. A lot of the gop senators are still hawks of various stripes unlike the weird quasi chicken hawk isolationists of the newer gop. I wouldn’t be shocked if some felt “forced” to do the hostage song and dance in hopes of passing something plus getting extra stuff. Plus now they can blame the house chuds who they hate.
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Feb 13, 2024 19:52
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