Sir Kodiak posted:

How does that poll support that idea? I think that idea is likely true, but I don't see how that poll is evidence for it.

The cries for Biden to get out of the race are absurd—the man has striven to be president for longer than many of us have been alive; he's either dead or running—but how can a poll that doesn't offer predictive value for the election show that there's no viable successor? Do you actually think Gretchen Whitmer would get 33% of the vote in a country this polarized?

Charliegrs posted:

You do know really dumb people can be the offspring of diamond mine owners, NY real estate barons, famous actors/musicians, CEOs of oil companies etc right? And statistically speaking those types of offspring have a huge advantage in life and usually end up wealthy themselves no matter how incredibly dumb they are. Where do you think the term "failson" came from? Being smart doesn't mean you'll be rich. And being dumb doesn't mean you'll be poor.

Staluigi posted:

it's pretty likely that any candidate that the dems can muster in a forced replacement or emergency will not be able to garner the same voter enthusiasm that biden is likely to carry into a general election

that's not an endorsement of biden as much as it is a recognition of what the dnc does not offer, but it helps paint a clearer picture of why a whole "biden stands down" scenario is really unlikely

zoux posted:

He's going to wring every cent out of the RNC coffers once Lara is made co-chair.

Staluigi posted:

it's pretty likely that any candidate that the dems can muster in a forced replacement or emergency will not be able to garner the same voter enthusiasm that biden is likely to carry into a general election

that's not an endorsement of biden as much as it is a recognition of what the dnc does not offer, but it helps paint a clearer picture of why a whole "biden stands down" scenario is really unlikely

Killer robot posted:

All the same it hurts the idea that the low enthusiasm on Biden's right flank can be easily fixed by replacing him with some younger, more vital Democrat.

Main Paineframe posted:

If society breaks down to the point where people are hiding out in bunkers, cash no longer has value, law enforcement no longer exists, and the state no longer possesses the monopoly on violence, I think most people are going to be too busy with actually important problems to worry about finding and attacking billionaire bunkers.

The billionaires will no doubt have a pretty hard time when they discover that all of their wealth and power collapsed along with society, but we're probably going to be too busy scrounging for basic sustenance and hiding from the roving death squads to have a chance to feel smug about it.

Staluigi posted:

once upon a time it feels obvious that they were setting up kamala to be that More Vital inheritor but everything between then and now showed that she was never gonna have that juice

Byzantine posted:

She had to drop out of the primary before any votes were cast because nobody liked her; she doesn't even have anti-juice because a juice/anti-juice reaction would generate energy

Byzantine posted:

She had to drop out of the primary before any votes were cast because nobody liked her; she doesn't even have anti-juice because a juice/anti-juice reaction would generate energy

Staluigi posted:

Lol yes

Its weird because she's not the "charisma void" template of the right, she goes about being thoroughly Ain't Got It in different ways

zoux posted:

Again, the point of it is that there have been about 1000 think pieces about why Biden should drop out but there is no evidence that voters want a different candidate. If one of these folks were in the primaries against him would those numbers change? Probably! But there's nothing you can point to, no Bernie-like figure racking up small donations and packing venues with excited supporters as an obvious replacement that the Elites at the DNC Weather Control Center are blocking from becoming the nominee. People are just "eh, someone other than Biden" because fully like a third of the electorate hasn't internalized that it's going to be a 2020 rematch and is only half paying attention.

koolkal posted:

I think it's pretty clear that if anyone ran against Biden, they would be persona non grata as far as the DNC or Democrats are concerned. It's essentially enforcing self-censorship (a very timely topic)

Eric Cantonese posted:

Angry_Ed posted:

It feels weird to ask this but how much of this whole "no primary to the incumbent" sentiment is also couched in the disaster that was the 1980 election when you had people like Ted Kennedy try to primary Carter and that, among many other things, eventually leading to 12 years of GOP control of the executive branch?

Granted that was over 40 years ago and I don't know how that would factor in at all, other than a lot of higher-up Democrats back then are still around.

Angry_Ed posted:

It feels weird to ask this but how much of this whole "no primary to the incumbent" sentiment is also couched in the disaster that was the 1980 election when you had people like Ted Kennedy try to primary Carter and that, among many other things, eventually leading to 12 years of GOP control of the executive branch?

Granted that was over 40 years ago and I don't know how that would factor in at all, other than a lot of higher-up Democrats back then are still around.

zoux posted:

They aren't polling candidates. They are polling voters and voters don't show a preference for any candidate that would improve on Biden's polling. Is the polling accurate? Who knows, but that's the evidence we have to work with and it doesn't support the idea that the people are clamoring for a certain candidate. And if there isn't a different candidate, then there's no reason to replace the incumbent loving president on the ticket.

zoux posted:

Again, the point of it is that there have been about 1000 think pieces about why Biden should drop out but there is no evidence that voters want a different candidate. If one of these folks were in the primaries against him would those numbers change? Probably! But there's nothing you can point to, no Bernie-like figure racking up small donations and packing venues with excited supporters as an obvious replacement that the Elites at the DNC Weather Control Center are blocking from becoming the nominee. People are just "eh, someone other than Biden" because fully like a third of the electorate hasn't internalized that it's going to be a 2020 rematch and is only half paying attention.

DaveWoo posted:

Yeah, I can't tell you how many times I've had the following conversation with other people irl:

"Biden's too old, he needs to step aside and let someone else be the nominee."

"Okay, how about Kamala? She'd be the logical second choice."

"Ew, not her, I don't like her."

"Okay, how about Gavin Newsom then?"

"Ew, not him either."

"Okay, how about Dean Phillips? He's actually running in the primary."

"No, I don't like him either."

"Okay then, who would you like to see as the Dem nominee?"

""

MixMasterMalaria posted:

zoux posted:

They aren't polling candidates. They are polling voters and voters don't show a preference for any candidate that would improve on Biden's polling. Is the polling accurate? Who knows, but that's the evidence we have to work with and it doesn't support the idea that the people are clamoring for a certain candidate. And if there isn't a different candidate, then there's no reason to replace the incumbent loving president on the ticket.

GoutPatrol posted:

There was also Reagan trying to primary Ford in 76, and considering how close that election was it probably was a factor. Those two are the only time we had serious attempts, both ended in losses for the incumbent.

Staluigi posted:

She emerged fully formed...

Eric Cantonese posted:

I apologize if this is a risky post that leads to relitigating 2020, but it was my understanding that the Biden campaign was pretty set on selecting a woman for the VP spot and then whittled the list down to Harris. It could easily have been Warren or Klobuchar or Whitmer.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/18/us/politics/amy-klobuchar-biden-vice-president.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/13/us/politics/biden-harris.html

If those horrible cops hadn't killed George Floyd, the choice might have been very different.

Civilized Fishbot posted:

You think she just fell out of s coconut tree? She exists in the context of all in which she lives and what came before her.

www.whitehouse.gov - Fri, 16 Feb 2024 posted:

Hotel Bayerischer Hof
Munich, Germany

2:38 P.M. CEST
…
AMBASSADOR HEUSGEN: Thank you. Thank you very much. Last question.

After Munich last year, you remember, we discussed about the Global South and how important it is. You actually traveled to Ghana, to — and we just had the president here, too — Tanzania and Zambia. What was your impression? There seems to be a growing transactional mindset. How do we react to this? How can we — the U.S. and Europe — win them over?

VICE PRESIDENT HARRIS: Well, I’m going to challenge the premise of your question. That for — on behalf of the United States, I will tell you that I believe that we must think differently about the relationship between the United States and the continent of Africa. And I’m frankly very excited about what is happening on the continent and my trip being further reinforcement of that point.

We look at the — the future of the continent and how it will affect the future of the world: It is indisputable, there will be a direct impact.

The median age on the continent of Africa is 19. By 2050, it is estimated that one in four people occupying place on Mother Earth will be on the continent of Africa.

So, when we think of it in terms of the future, we must see the innovation that is currently happening there and partner with African leaders and nations and change the way we are thinking in a way that it is not about aid, but about partnership; not what we do for the continent, but what we do with the continent and its leaders.

When I was there, I was in — at Ghana, for example, meeting with a number of business leaders — leaders in the clean energy economy. Afrobeats and what culture of Africa is doing to impact the world in terms of how it thinks about the arts is profound. So, the future has to be about partnership and investment.

To your point about tran- — the transactional issue, certainly, when I was there, the press asked me almost every day: Are you here because of China? And my answer was, “No, we are here because of the Afri- — the people on the Af- — continent of Africa and what the partnership will mean.”

And let’s not forget ever the interconnected history between the United States and Africa and what that means in terms of how we should think about the relationship and how we should think about our commitment to the African nations.

zoux posted:

He's going to wring every cent out of the RNC coffers once Lara is made co-chair.

celadon posted:

If Biden was voluntarily stepping down for health issues the entire political climate would shift and the polling would reflect that.

Bar Ran Dun posted:

This would not change how people feel about Gavin Newsom or Kamala Harris. I doubt either would win an open primary.

Dull Fork posted:

What makes you think that about Newsom? I am not as familiar with the guy, is it just the california stink that you think would drag him down nationally? Or does he have a nasty side to compliment his used car salesman looks?

mawarannahr posted:

Speaking of which, I was wondering... does anyone here know what the bolded part means?

Remarks by Vice President Harris at the Munich Security Conference | Munich, Germany | The White House

Dull Fork posted:

What makes you think that about Newsom? I am not as familiar with the guy, is it just the california stink that you think would drag him down nationally? Or does he have a nasty side to compliment his used car salesman looks?

Bar Ran Dun posted:

He’s unctuous.