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Happened to me today. Markets will be fine, I'm on the job!
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Feb 17, 2024 03:41
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Hadlock posted:The problem with AI as a commercial growth area is that the AI needed to do basic tasks like writing emails and marketing copy, can be trained on public data sets in a day or two, and can already run on consumer hardware, I have the orca 2 LLM running on my work MacBook pro and it will write you a haiku about any topic you can think of and write c++ to sort a binary tree. Yea was thinking about this too. Like Apple has been much, much quieter about AI, but on the iPhone now they're leveraging machine learning to identify which particular cat is your random cat photo and you're able to name it and the phone is able to sort your images to show you your cats by name. That's an amazing feature and I'll absolutely pick the phone that has a feature like that over one that doesn't. However, at the end of the day, Apple is building this tech into the chips that they're already putting into the phone. Like where's the growth here? I suppose if this tech does require new chips that Apple didn't need before, well there's some growth, but this feels like a smaller opportunity if we're just replacing old chips with new chips.
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Feb 17, 2024 05:15
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Leperflesh posted:
Kind of amazing to see Apple not here at all. I mean yea they have their own silicon but still...
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Feb 17, 2024 05:19
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Made a lil’ walking around money playing RXRX and SOUN volatility today. Namaste, NVDA
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Feb 17, 2024 05:56
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Femtosecond posted:Kind of amazing to see Apple not here at all. I mean yea they have their own silicon but still... I mean, all those companies are either in the cloud business, building their own large models, or both. Apple is doing neither? I'm not particularly a fan of Apple's products, but taking a wait and see on "AI" might be the smart move. A lot of money is being spent right now that isn't going to see a return. (AI meaning here the current large flashy models that can turn text input into occasionally reasonable imitations of human made text or images)
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Feb 17, 2024 06:13
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And with an ordinary options expiration date, the Tim Micro Computer saga comes to a neat and tidy end.
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Feb 17, 2024 06:54
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Femtosecond posted:on the iPhone now they're leveraging machine learning to identify which particular cat is your random cat photo and you're able to name it and the phone is able to sort your images to show you your cats by name. That's an amazing feature and I'll absolutely pick the phone that has a feature like that over one that doesn't. Google photos on android has had a similar feature for years, but not with pets with human faces.
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Feb 17, 2024 19:37
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drk posted:I mean, all those companies are either in the cloud business, building their own large models, or both. Apple is doing neither? I have to imagine that Apple is doing something here but just doing it their own way and quietly. If I found out they were genuinely wait and see and doing nothing around ML and LLM I dunno man I think I'd be moving out of my Apple positions. I think Apple will be happy to sit back and watch, sit on a bunch of advances they are making internally until they are sure that they have a feature that is useful to their users. Just releasing some sort of experimental stuff because everyone else is and they gotta be out there too is very un-Apple. Femtosecond fucked around with this message at 02:03 on Feb 18, 2024 |
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Feb 18, 2024 02:00
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Femtosecond posted:I have to imagine that Apple is doing something here but just doing it their own way and quietly. what about the apple VR goggles
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Feb 18, 2024 02:09
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Openai seems to be almost neck and neck with academia and open source projects; the new sora video clip thing is neat, but there's an open source project that does 80% of that but the background can get floaty if the camera pans much. Open AI is measurably better but their score is 1050 and the best open source stuff is 1020 give or take. Pretty close imo This doesn't seem like a terrible time to do a wait and see approach. Researchers introduced quantizing the model which gave us a 20% increase in performance overnight. There's probably more optimizations to come. If Apple is going to release some new ground breaking feature on top of existing AI tech it probably won't be this year. I can see them replacing Siri with an LLM though, that would be an easy slam dunk
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Feb 18, 2024 02:37
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dopesilly posted:Google photos on android has had a similar feature for years, but not with pets with human faces. Google Photos has automatically sorted my cats for years. as usual, the iPhone is years behind.
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Feb 18, 2024 03:25
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I could imagine Apple really downplaying it. Releasing small features into their suite of iWork apps, and OS X. Like the ability to drop in some AI generated art into your
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Feb 18, 2024 03:38
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Apple likes to trot out Watson? Sherlock? Every 15 years as some kind of revolutionary file search. I can see them releasing something like "Sherlock find me that really good picture of my page cat I took like a week after the 4th of July" and it working. I don't know how often I'd use that maybe twice a month
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Feb 18, 2024 03:49
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I see all this stocks discussion about cool tech and I always want to try taking a position on nvda or msft and whatever else. However every time I consider acting on one I end up thinking "nah it's already priced in" how do you guys feel out what the market has priced in?
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Feb 18, 2024 19:39
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Crankit posted:I see all this stocks discussion about cool tech and I always want to try taking a position on nvda or msft and whatever else. However every time I consider acting on one I end up thinking "nah it's already priced in" how do you guys feel out what the market has priced in?
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Feb 18, 2024 20:25
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I mean you can do a discounted cash flow analysis or something, but for NVDA that is just going to tell you "lol, no". NVDA stock is currently: 20% Nvidia is a good business 20% The business is expected to expand 60% Vibes Pricing that last category is tricky.
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Feb 18, 2024 20:30
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quote:How China Built BYD, Its Tesla Killer I didn't realize that BYD was the battery supplier for iPhone lol. Fuckin wild how big that campus is. They have their own monorail holy. I still haven't bought BYD.... Still thinking bout it tho
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Feb 18, 2024 21:23
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drk posted:I mean you can do a discounted cash flow analysis or something, but for NVDA that is just going to tell you "lol, no". When something seems to be overwhelmingly priced based on the good vibes and hope of the masses, then it is likely to be overpriced. Problem is, it's so drat hard to make money on the short side. It could easily go to 1500, then have what feels like a massive correct back to 800ish, and your 600p will never even come close to a gain. I would like to bet on it having a 15-20% drop on earnings, but that magnitude of movement is almost the sticker price of the options.
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Feb 18, 2024 22:27
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FistEnergy posted:Google Photos has automatically sorted my cats for years. as usual, the iPhone is years behind. iPhone has Google Photos
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Feb 19, 2024 06:23
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Why has BYD fallen so much in the past year? Were they overpriced before?
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Feb 19, 2024 14:03
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Chinese recession; global recession.
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Feb 19, 2024 14:45
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Ubiquitus posted:Why has BYD fallen so much in the past year? Were they overpriced before? Vibe deficiency.
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Feb 20, 2024 13:26
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DNK posted:Chinese recession; global recession. Yeah this is what I was thinking too - since the Chinese government has their hands in everything you’re also betting on the Chinese coming out of recession - and they have a lot of problems right now.
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Feb 20, 2024 14:44
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There's also talk of tariffs being put on their cars coming into the EU because of the subsidies they receive from the Chinese government. I don't think they'd ever be sold in the US either. So there's a couple of huge markets they're possibly not going to have much (if any) access to.
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Feb 20, 2024 20:40
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gay picnic defence posted:There's also talk of tariffs being put on their cars coming into the EU because of the subsidies they receive from the Chinese government. I don't think they'd ever be sold in the US either. So there's a couple of huge markets they're possibly not going to have much (if any) access to. tesla is using BYD batteries in some products, not sure about US market tho. CATL also
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Feb 20, 2024 21:40
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Not seeing much NVDA talk anymore. Concerning..Crankit posted:I see all this stocks discussion about cool tech and I always want to try taking a position on nvda or msft and whatever else. However every time I consider acting on one I end up thinking "nah it's already priced in" how do you guys feel out what the market has priced in? Buy at intervals and at fixed units, e.g. $100 every week, and use an index if you can. Ubiquitus posted:Why has BYD fallen so much in the past year? Were they overpriced before? Overcapacity - too much supply, not enough demand. Man Musk fucked around with this message at 03:26 on Feb 21, 2024 |
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Feb 21, 2024 03:24
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I'll talk NVDA. I bet this morning on earnings for both NVDA and RIVN. Win some, lose some.
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Feb 21, 2024 22:48
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I can only assume a big up day for the market tomorrow since 100% of the US economy is now anchored to NVDA.
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Feb 22, 2024 00:08
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Watch it sell off and open flat
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Feb 22, 2024 00:09
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mrmcd posted:I can only assume a big up day for the market tomorrow since 100% of the US economy is now anchored to NVDA. not if you like stocks that are in the Russell 2000. In that case nvidia earnings sucks all the oxygen out of the room no matter how good any one company does. gotta fomo into nvidia ya know.
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Feb 22, 2024 02:02
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I think the memory producer stocks are getting short shrift here. even if MSFT/META/GOOGL/AMZN design custom silicon to avoid paying NVDA insane margins, every one of these big LLM / genai / image/movie creator things is gonna require absurd amounts of memory. I was playing around with spinning up a kind of league average RAG system with a 7b model and MTEB leaderboard embedding model and the A100 I was goofing on ran out of memory (> 40GB) before even loading up a big dataset. H100's have 80GB. next-gen nvidia datacenter cards are coming with like 141GB of memory, supposedly. I can easily see a GPU far future (especially for inference use cases) where we're not compute limited, but memory limited, like how most computer users furiously posting on the internet today could give a poo poo if their computer had a 2500K or 12700K cpu inside but they might have opinions on whether they've got 4GB or 32GB of RAM. and all the big big enterprise use cases will require massive amounts of memory to spin up models that like, an exec ends up using once per day. also all this LLM/RAG stuff or some future derivative thereof is gonna end up entirely replacing windows explorer search, MS onedrive search, sharepoint search ... any querying of a private set of files. eventually. not in 2024 or 2025. ("MS Copilot! For Sharepoint!"). but will require a lot of memory to cover that data. anyway micron $MU is still below pre-pandemic peak and down over past 2 years, SK Hynix (if you trust Korean listed not-majority-publicly-traded companies...they supply nvidia) is only up like 20% in 2 years, samsung is flat for 2 years. the commodification of the DRAM and flash markets led to a race to the bottom price-wise. but the world is gonna need a lot more datacenter memory soon. https://www.tweaktown.com/news/94220/sk-hynix-and-samsung-are-both-sold-out-of-their-hbm3-memory-until-2025/index.html https://www.tweaktown.com/news/96165/hbm-prices-have-skyrocketed-by-500-thanks-to-ai-gpu-demand-with-no-signs-of-slowing-down/index.html who's supplying HBM memory to MSFT/AMZN/GOOGL/META for their custom silicon? $MU reports in 1 month.
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Feb 22, 2024 04:08
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Memory is traded as a commodity. Literally. 1, 2, 4gb Sodimms are traded on commodity markets in South Korea, probably elsewhere How are other commodity producers traded? Would you apply the same pricing rules to MU as you would TSN I'm still not convinced LLM demand is going to push memory/CPU demand long term, as has been pointed out multiple times you don't need a GPU to run LLM etc, and training the model is a one time cost except for flagship models that are regularly updated and... There's probably going to be a $majorcarbrands number of those Hadlock fucked around with this message at 04:17 on Feb 22, 2024 |
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Feb 22, 2024 04:12
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Hadlock posted:Memory is traded as a commodity. Literally. 1, 2, 4gb Sodimms are traded on commodity markets in South Korea, probably elsewhere I know, hence my reference to the commodification of the DRAM and flash markets. but HBM is... not a functional commodity market yet? also quite supply limited, with fewer producers? yet the stocks aren't moving much. someone needs to dive into investor presentations or SEC filings or whatever and see what % of Micron's revenue is from HBM, and project out how that will change in the next 12mo if HBM prices and volumes each go up by 5-10x (or whatever, start drawing scenarios). extrapolate out to HBM3e demand and pricing in 2H24 / 2025. historically MU trades a low multiple, like many commodity producers. but what if they (or SK Hynix) also just kind of struck gold? edit: here's some SK hynix links since they already reported recently. solid reports on the back of HBM https://www.kedglobal.com/earnings/newsView/ked202401250004 https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/25/sk-hynix-swings-to-fourth-quarter-profit-on-strong-ai-chip-demand.html pmchem fucked around with this message at 04:22 on Feb 22, 2024 |
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Feb 22, 2024 04:20
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Wasn't there a controversy not long ago, Samsung was flooding the market to push other producers out, so they could compete with higher profit margins I feel like there's a lot of capacity sidelined Plus overall PC and laptop sales are down consistently for a long time; covid WFH gave a brief bump in sales but overall it's been flat or slightly down for 5+ years at this point. There is no shortage of supply side right now How much fab/memory resources does an A100 use exactly? Like, 20% of the resources needed to make one laptop? What's the global annual demand for A100? A million units a year? How many RTX4060 does Nvidia sell in a single quarter? Wild rear end* guess 35 million globally? What fraction of global fab capacity does A100 and A100 class GPU consume? 0.10%? 0.25%? Maybe it's more but I just a) just don't see the continued demand for A100 type devices post 2025 and b) total global production is probably a rounding error in total fab resources consumed and finally c) unless AGI happens I think we're probably going to mine out all the value of the current AI technology by 2028 If AGI happens all bets are off *True wild guess, didn't Google this
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Feb 22, 2024 04:33
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pmchem posted:anyway micron $MU is still below pre-pandemic peak and down over past 2 years eh, I think it would be more fair to call it flat over two years. $mu is currently only 10% or so off its all time high. i'm up like 60% on my position from 2022. i am a bad trader, so I dont actually have a price target or exit plan. $90 or $100 this year might do it?
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Feb 22, 2024 05:47
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Every time I decided to not buy Nvidia because I feel I missed the bus, i’ve been wrong. Keeps going up. We need a stock split and bring that price down. How do you guys feel about SMCI? Sold it at the start of the session, and it looks like that was too premature.
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Feb 22, 2024 18:30
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MeatRocket8 posted:How do you guys feel about SMCI? Sold it at the start of the session, and it looks like that was too premature. Meme bullshit on the level of GME and it's not done but when it is done it will be fast and leave many bloodied.
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Feb 22, 2024 18:37
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I got lucky with buying SMCI before it went full meme BS and have sold enough that I've gotten my original money out. I'll let the rest ride until the bubble bursts since it would need to fall under $250 before my net gains are reduced to only 100%. I didn't participate in the GME/AMC bubbles so this is the closest I've gotten to that feeling of watching a stock you own randomly go up 200% in a short time.
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Feb 22, 2024 18:46
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Unlike GME SMCI is a profitable company that makes things. I'm happy riding the current momentum and won't sell until the craze dies off and stays dead for several months.
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Feb 22, 2024 19:28
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UnfurledSails posted:Unlike GME SMCI is a profitable company that makes things. I'm happy riding the current momentum and won't sell until the craze dies off and stays dead for several months. So is / was CISCO have you checked their chart going back to 2000 when they were at their All time high they still haven't matched?
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Feb 22, 2024 19:34
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