(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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boofhead posted:That was Transylvania though, wasn't it? I've never heard of a definition of Transylvania that extended that far east They're both Trans peoples.
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Feb 29, 2024 09:57
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Popete posted:I there is even less political support in NATO contries for sending troops to Ukraine now than there was in 2020. It's just not going to happen unless Russia actually invades Poland or something. To touch upon this line of debate, this interesting poll was posted today. Not a very large polling group (2000 respondents) but apparently 44% of Dutch people would support Dutch boots on the ground in Ukraine. Most of them would expect these troops to only do supporting roles like mine clearing. 19% of respondents were open to the idea of Dutch troops actually engaging jn combat. https://www.hartvannederland.nl/panel/bijna-helft-nederlanders-voor-grondtroepen-oekraine I wonder what the numbers would be in France, Poland and Baltic states. I definitely would not “rule out” boots on the ground since it seems to be a political necessity in the long run and even has public support if it’s in “ancillary roles” (not sure how safe the average Dutchman thinks mine clearing in Ukraine is right now…)
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Feb 29, 2024 13:30
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I heard Michael Kofman mention that the US and a few other NATO countries still do not even have have observers in Ukraine, which shows the level of apprehension in getting involved. But if other European countries get boots on the ground it will begin with those advisor and support roles. I could see scenarios were countries that feel most threatened by Russian expansion would lead in that in that, giving the public support for opposing Russia. And since Russia already thinks they are fighting NATO, they could not really escalate things if Poland, Estonia, Latvia, or others have some troops in Ukraine.
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Feb 29, 2024 13:58
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jaete posted:it's a given that Putin will seek to invade NATO countries such as Poland when he's done with Ukraine I'm sorry, where is this coming from? I don't doubt that Putin has plans to destabilize and exploit political divisions in this part of the world (he's already doing it) but a full scale invasion of a core nato member, as long as nato exists, would not go well for him and even he must know that. The idea that he's going to wrap up in Ukraine and then immediately roll on Warsaw (then berlin? paris? london?) seems ludicrous to me.
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Feb 29, 2024 14:24
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Comte de Saint-Germain posted:I'm sorry, where is this coming from? I don't doubt that Putin has plans to destabilize and exploit political divisions in this part of the world (he's already doing it) but a full scale invasion of a core nato member, as long as nato exists, would not go well for him and even he must know that. The idea that he's going to wrap up in Ukraine and then immediately roll on Warsaw (then berlin? paris? london?) seems ludicrous to me. We, the experts and the public opinion have said the same thing about starting a land war in Ukraine. We have had lengthy discussions in this very thread about if the war is in any way rational, logical or economicaly viable. The only deterrent would be force and even that might not be enough. We cannot prepare for an "if" situation, we can only delay the "when" as long as possible, as long as the current government of Russia is in power. Maybe we might delay the war long enough for Putin to leave office, one way or another, but as long as things at the top won't change, we can't just assume that further war won't happen. As for reasons, oh they're plenty: old Russian territories, Russian minorities in Eastern Poland, connecting the Królewiec oblast with the main country by ways other then annexing Belarus and, the one I personally see as the most likely to be used by Moscow, Poland will soon start the construction of our nuclear power plants. And as we know from what the US was doing in the middle east, once a country becomes nuclear, what's stopping them from building bombs? Small, weak Russia would be scared of their big, nuclear powered Polish neighbour. Hell, invoking Iran might be how the useful idiots in USA will be converted to believing Russia has the right to go further. So yeah, I think that we need to be ready. "This is absurd!" - yes, yes it is. So is the current war.
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Feb 29, 2024 14:45
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Kikas posted:
I'm not saying we shouldn't be prepared, I live in Poland and I don't take Putin's word that he's not interested in Poland for poo poo. But I think saying it's inevitable or a certainty is not supported. And it honestly makes the argument for military buildup in Europe seem worse and fringe.
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Feb 29, 2024 14:52
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Putin has a very publicly known list of countries to annex and take over after the original Ukraine plan. Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, Kazakhstan and then hypothetically unaligned Finland. I'm sure the Poland plan would happen eventually, given enough time and resources, but that's after NATO collapses with right wing governments wrecking havoc across Europe. So not in our lifetime. We might as well file this under a complete fantasy scenario, given the circumstances
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Feb 29, 2024 15:01
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Nitrox posted:Putin has a very publicly known list of countries to annex and take over after the original Ukraine plan. Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, Kazakhstan and then hypothetically unaligned Finland. I'm sure the Poland plan would happen eventually, given enough time and resources, but that's after NATO collapses with right wing governments wrecking havoc across Europe. So not in our lifetime. We might as well file this under a complete fantasy scenario, given the circumstances Putin's pretty old so it's safe to say it's not going to happen considering the current pace. Does Putin have a successor? Hoarding all that political power has its downsides, especially for his legacy.
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Feb 29, 2024 15:06
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Comte de Saint-Germain posted:I'm not saying we shouldn't be prepared, I live in Poland and I don't take Putin's word that he's not interested in Poland for poo poo. But I think saying it's inevitable or a certainty is not supported. And it honestly makes the argument for military buildup in Europe seem worse and fringe. The precondition here is that Russia manages to win in Ukraine, and not just win, but basically keep all of its territorial gains and make what remains of Ukraine into a neutral buffer state. It's extremely improbable, but if it happens, the likeliness of Russia attacking NATO directly would increase exponentially. If Putin sees that NATO couldn't stop him in Ukraine, 'protecting Russians in Baltic countries' is the obvious next step. If the precondition is not met, however, the likeliness of that remains very low.
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Feb 29, 2024 15:12
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Paladinus posted:The precondition here is that Russia manages to win in Ukraine, and not just win, but basically keep all of its territorial gains and make what remains of Ukraine into a neutral buffer state. It's extremely improbable, but if it happens, the likeliness of Russia attacking NATO directly would increase exponentially. If Putin sees that NATO couldn't stop him in Ukraine, 'protecting Russians in Baltic countries' is the obvious next step. If the precondition is not met, however, the likeliness of that remains very low. But this is not what I was responding to, I was responding to a guy saying that the next logical step, no, the next inevitable step, was a full scale invasion of Poland. It's not impossible, but it's neither inevitable nor a likely "next step". EDIT: Not disagreeing with what you said, just pointing out that the guy I was responding to was, in fact, saying something I think is pretty fringe and unlikely. Comte de Saint-Germain fucked around with this message at 15:29 on Feb 29, 2024 |
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Feb 29, 2024 15:26
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That all assumes that NATO in current form even exist after 5 years. Border countries are concerned for good reason.
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Feb 29, 2024 15:53
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Comte de Saint-Germain fucked around with this message at 16:05 on Feb 29, 2024 |
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Feb 29, 2024 16:01
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Deltasquid posted:To touch upon this line of debate, this interesting poll was posted today. Not a very large polling group (2000 respondents) but apparently 44% of Dutch people would support Dutch boots on the ground in Ukraine. Most of them would expect these troops to only do supporting roles like mine clearing. 19% of respondents were open to the idea of Dutch troops actually engaging jn combat. I was surprised how high these numbers are, but then realised that the poll doesn't say on whose side they'd be fighting in Ukraine 
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Feb 29, 2024 16:17
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https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1763180896348258459 Clancychat it may be, but Russia is definitely rattled by talk of western troops in Ukraine and they've drawn a new red line around it.
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Feb 29, 2024 16:33
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Comte de Saint-Germain posted:But this is not what I was responding to, I was responding to a guy saying that the next logical step, no, the next inevitable step, was a full scale invasion of Poland. It's not impossible, but it's neither inevitable nor a likely "next step". I'd consider the Baltic States to be next on the list, not Poland. They've still got demographic scars from the 1940 occupation.
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Feb 29, 2024 16:52
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Morrow posted:
I've braved excement filled waters of Konsomolskaya Pravda to give you this turd: https://www.kp.ru/daily/27572/4896783/ "it is internal problems in France that push Macron to implement such “external” projects. Since complex unresolved issues with both farmers and emigrants cannot be resolved in France in the short term, Macron decided that it was time to involve the fifth republic in the “Ukrainian project” in full. To the point that, for example, French farmers who will now fall under criminal liability as a result of protest actions can, provided their criminal sentences are lifted, be recruited into the Foreign Legion to be sent to Ukraine." Emphasis mine, since it's funny look into mindset of Kremlin propagandist and pretty strong projection. Of course it's normal for a country to throw people into prison to then pipeline them into PMC-like deniable units..
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Feb 29, 2024 16:57
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It looks like Ukraine's support of Israel's war with Hamas has paid off. Israel's ambassador to the UN called Ukraine an "ally" yesterday ands attacked Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Israel said they will provide Ukraine with early warning systems to help detect incoming missiles.
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Feb 29, 2024 17:43
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I think it's more Russia supporting Hamas that did it. I don't recall Ukrainian Government sending any strong statements in support of Israel.
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Feb 29, 2024 17:49
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alex314 posted:I think it's more Russia supporting Hamas that did it. I don't recall Ukrainian Government sending any strong statements in support of Israel. Ukraine did seem to make a special point of condemning Hamas. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/9/essence-is-the-same-ukraines-zelenskyy-likens-hamas-to-russia Russia's October response was slower and more guarded in condemning the Hamas attack: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/10/09/russia-hamas-israel-iran-ukraine/
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Feb 29, 2024 17:59
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alex314 posted:I think it's more Russia supporting Hamas that did it. I don't recall Ukrainian Government sending any strong statements in support of Israel. They absolutely did, and it was a pretty blatant political maneuver to boot.
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Feb 29, 2024 18:15
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I might have missed it. I don't track Israel-Palestine too closely. I do remember Russia receiving Hamas delegation.
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Feb 29, 2024 18:20
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alex314 posted:I might have missed it. I don't track Israel-Palestine too closely. I do remember Russia receiving Hamas delegation. Hamas is run by Iran, which is supplying Russia - so Ukraine's sympathies would be pretty clear.
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Feb 29, 2024 18:21
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Telsa Cola posted:They absolutely did, and it was a pretty blatant political maneuver to boot. I think Zelensky did shortly after 10/7 because Ukraine had been actively courting Israeli support for a while but I thought there was almost nothing since then officially. Could be wrong though. ex: 10/7 condemning attacks: https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraines-zelenskiy-condemns-terrorist-attack-israel-2023-10-07/ and it's been more neutral statements about protecting civilians since: https://mfa.gov.ua/en/news/zayava-mzs-ukrayini-shchodo-zhertv-u-likarni-al-agli-v-sektori-gaza I'm not sure if I missed anything else though, it seems like a political quagmire Ukraine would not want to be involved with.
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Feb 29, 2024 18:28
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Deltasquid posted:To touch upon this line of debate, this interesting poll was posted today. Not a very large polling group (2000 respondents) but apparently 44% of Dutch people would support Dutch boots on the ground in Ukraine. Most of them would expect these troops to only do supporting roles like mine clearing. 19% of respondents were open to the idea of Dutch troops actually engaging jn combat. 2000 is a normal-sized polling group, so it's probably a reasonable poll if the questions are well-asked, etc. SixFigureSandwich posted:I was surprised how high these numbers are, but then realised that the poll doesn't say on whose side they'd be fighting in Ukraine I'd uh, be shocked if Poles wanted to help Russian invade anyone near them.
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Feb 29, 2024 20:52
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Comte de Saint-Germain posted:But this is not what I was responding to, I was responding to a guy saying that the next logical step, no, the next inevitable step, was a full scale invasion of Poland. It's not impossible, but it's neither inevitable nor a likely "next step". Yeah, you're right; that was hyperbole on my part and I'm sorry. The point I was trying to make stands though: with Macron & others starting to talk about an absolute disaster scenario, to me that means those people think that said absolute disaster scenario is now sufficiently likely to actually happen that we all (in Europe) need to start seriously preparing for it. Or at least, we should talk about it and think about it and keep it in mind. But also prepare. I don't mean Putin will invade NATO tomorrow, but in 3 years, 5 years, 10 years, the possibility absolutely cannot be ignored, and neither can the fact that ramping up the various militaries will also take many years (so we should start now).
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Feb 29, 2024 22:23
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Oops wrong thread
Mr. Apollo fucked around with this message at 05:23 on Mar 1, 2024 |
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Mar 1, 2024 04:23
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Deteriorata posted:Hamas is run by Iran, which is supplying Russia - so Ukraine's sympathies would be pretty clear. Ukraine's sympathies lie with Ukraine. From early on in 2022 it has been on a concerted campaign to obtain support from all over the world (it accepts Chinese support readily despite China also supporting Russia) and Israel with its modern military equipment has been one of the avenues from well before the increased Hamas activity. ie, it is nothing to do with Iran that Ukraine is trying to curry favour of Israel. If Hamas could help and it could get Hamas support without alienating the much more lucrative Israel, it would.
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Mar 1, 2024 10:40
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Morrow posted:https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1763180896348258459 Doesn't he say this about literally everything
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Mar 1, 2024 12:13
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cr0y posted:Doesn't he say this about literally everything Isn't it usually Medvedev who starts screaming about how London and Washington will burn in nuclear hellfire for this assault on Mother Russia every time he stubs his toe?
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Mar 1, 2024 12:33
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dennyk posted:Isn't it usually Medvedev who starts screaming about how London and Washington will burn in nuclear hellfire for this assault on Mother Russia every time he stubs his toe? Bad cop, Demented Alcoholic Cop routine --- Meanwhile, here goes another round of discourse around 2022 ceasefire talks https://www.wsj.com/world/russia-ukraine-peace-deal-2022-document-6e12e093 The curious thing there is how eager Kremlin was to give up on the East (in practice it probably would have meant Minsk 3, with the status of regions being murky beyond belief). fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 13:59 on Mar 1, 2024 |
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Mar 1, 2024 12:40
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cr0y posted:Doesn't he say this about literally everything I wonder if news outlets truly think this is news, or if they feel they just need to report on everything this dictator says, or if they simply report it because it gets clicks. Anyway, about NYT's quote about the same thing: NYT posted:NATO countries that were helping Ukraine strike Russian territory or that might consider sending their own troops must understand that “all this truly threatens a conflict with the use of nuclear weapons, and therefore the destruction of civilization,” Putin said. Like this idiot knows anything about civilization.
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Mar 1, 2024 12:41
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His words are backed with NUCLEAR WEAPONS
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Mar 1, 2024 13:34
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Morrow posted:
All Putin has is the red marker, he doesn't own any other colors any more. Anyway, yeah, this is the value of Macron's talk; Putin is clearly rattled by it. He knows his only prayer of victory here is western non-involvement.
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Mar 1, 2024 14:35
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Dog on Fire posted:I wonder if news outlets truly think this is news, or if they feel they just need to report on everything this dictator says, or if they simply report it because it gets clicks. I mean, it's pretty reasonable to report on what Putin is saying, even if it's a bit ridiculous.
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Mar 1, 2024 15:27
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Deteriorata posted:Hamas is run by Iran, which is supplying Russia - so Ukraine's sympathies would be pretty clear.
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Mar 1, 2024 17:02
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https://breakingdefense.com/2024/02/with-a-year-long-cr-a-real-possibility-the-service-under-secretaries-sound-the-alarm/ This is an interesting article if you think through the implications for Ukraine. Russia's intelligence operation to capture the US Republican party has been so successful, it is effectively preventing the US from replenishing its own munition stocks and starting new programs. Without the ability to replenish munitions, the US has less to give Ukraine. When we will in the West wake the gently caress up and start hard-closing network lines to/from Russia? It's not like the Internet broadcasts in the magical Aether. It's mostly still physical fiber and copper wires on the ground.
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Mar 1, 2024 18:17
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Ynglaur posted:https://breakingdefense.com/2024/02/with-a-year-long-cr-a-real-possibility-the-service-under-secretaries-sound-the-alarm/ While I do think a LOT more should be done to shut down Russian disinfo coming into the US I think you're severely underestimating just how hard it would be to do that.
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Mar 1, 2024 18:47
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Ynglaur posted:https://breakingdefense.com/2024/02/with-a-year-long-cr-a-real-possibility-the-service-under-secretaries-sound-the-alarm/ Uhhh sorry this is hilarious Cutting Russia from the internet won't make your elected officials, high ranking civil servants and dipshit billionaires less selfish.
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Mar 1, 2024 19:44
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It is not Russian propaganda sites spreading Russian propaganda in the USA. They are all owned by Americans.
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Mar 1, 2024 19:48
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fatherboxx posted:Uhhh sorry this is hilarious I think the idea isn't that it makes them less selfish, just that it reduces one particular opportunity to express that selfishness. Like, in the way that keeps guns away from unstable psychos doesn't actually make them stable or non-psycho. Not opining one way or another, that's just how I took the post
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Mar 1, 2024 20:08
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