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Nessus posted:While I am also sweating this one a little, I will also note for the court record, that there may be several other issues looming larger in the public consciousness than the price of gasoline. Also the middle class suburban workers who are largely switching to Biden are the people who can work remotely, so they've been driving a lot less the last 6 months Edit: Dog tax 
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Oct 23, 2020 06:54
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I don't care what the swingometer says, I'd honestly be less surprised by Texas flipping than Georgia. There just seems to be more momentum there.
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Oct 23, 2020 06:56
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Charlz Guybon posted:I don't care what the swingometer says, I'd honestly be less surprised by Texas flipping than Georgia. There just seems to be more momentum there. Eh even then there's a potential for a very big gap even without GA or NC
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Oct 23, 2020 06:59
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I was listening to a podcast about Biden’s chances of flipping Florida being marginal but better than they’ve ever been. Mike Bloomberg saw the chances being there and knows that if trump lost Florida it would be nearly impossible for him to get the ec votes to win. Also, Florida’s results come out really early, so the basic gist of the overall outcome could be known early if florid flipped blue. So he invested $100 million there, which is a lot. Dems have not had a strong ground game in Florida while republicans have been going door to door still, due to covid. But Dems have been using Bloomberg’s money to run pretty heavy phone banking, and some studies have shown it to be very similar in power to door to door. So anyways, that map predicts Florida flipping blue and as I’m saying if that happened Biden would most assuredly win. Flipping Florida blue is a long shot but foe the first time ever it’s really a serious possibility.
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Oct 23, 2020 07:05
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Djarum posted:It isn’t just the oil industry causing all these issues. It is the paper industry destroying millions of acres of old growth forest, mostly to fuel the western’s obsession with toilet paper because god forbid we use bidets. You have our electric power mostly fueled by coal which it doesn’t matter how much you push it, there is no such thing as “clean coal”. Then you have the awful farming industry. coal makes up 11% of us energy sources. not that the oil and ng industry is at all truthful, mind you. americans should definitely get with the bidets but i see this fact about toilet paper repeated a lot and i’m pretty sure it’s bunk. all the stories about trace to a single nrdc report and most of this stuff is all “guys they’re cutting these things down for wood pulp, and you know what’s made with wood pulp? TOILET PAPER! you’re flushing nature right down your toilets!” this is like food babe logic. additionally: “Toilet paper is not the only item with which people can wipe themselves clean. The report notes that snow, moss, corncobs and catalogues were all in widespread use before toilet paper was popularized in the early 20th century.” sure whatever, i’ll just stick to the three shell system. edit: thought i’d posted in the wrong thread for a sec, heh. to be clear i get needing to complain about this. mediaphage fucked around with this message at 07:10 on Oct 23, 2020 |
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Oct 23, 2020 07:07
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Charlz Guybon posted:I don't care what the swingometer says, I'd honestly be less surprised by Texas flipping than Georgia. There just seems to be more momentum there. I disagree. The Black population of Georgia is growing faster than any other demographic, mostly driven by Atlanta. If we can get better statewide representation I expect this trend to accelerate. We're only a few cycles away from Georgia being reliably blue.
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Oct 23, 2020 07:08
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Blind Rasputin posted:I was listening to a podcast about Biden’s chances of flipping Florida being marginal but better than they’ve ever been. Mike Bloomberg saw the chances being there and knows that if trump lost Florida it would be nearly impossible for him to get the ec votes to win. Also, Florida’s results come out really early, so the basic gist of the overall outcome could be known early if florid flipped blue. So he invested $100 million there, which is a lot. Dems have not had a strong ground game in Florida while republicans have been going door to door still, due to covid. But Dems have been using Bloomberg’s money to run pretty heavy phone banking, and some studies have shown it to be very similar in power to door to door. So anyways, that map predicts Florida flipping blue and as I’m saying if that happened Biden would most assuredly win. Flipping Florida blue is a long shot but foe the first time ever it’s really a serious possibility. Total Voted: 4,256,102 Total Voted as Percentage of Registered Voters: 30.6% Total Voted as Percentage of 2016 turnout: 44.4% Total Voted by Party Registration Party Count Percent Democrats 1,926,055 45.3% Republicans 1,463,281 34.4% Minor 50,295 1.2% No Party Affiliation 816,471 19.2% TOTAL 4,256,102 100.0%
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Oct 23, 2020 07:09
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Blind Rasputin posted:I was listening to a podcast about Biden’s chances of flipping Florida being marginal but better than they’ve ever been. Mike Bloomberg saw the chances being there and knows that if trump lost Florida it would be nearly impossible for him to get the ec votes to win. Also, Florida’s results come out really early, so the basic gist of the overall outcome could be known early if florid flipped blue. So he invested $100 million there, which is a lot. Dems have not had a strong ground game in Florida while republicans have been going door to door still, due to covid. But Dems have been using Bloomberg’s money to run pretty heavy phone banking, and some studies have shown it to be very similar in power to door to door. So anyways, that map predicts Florida flipping blue and as I’m saying if that happened Biden would most assuredly win. Flipping Florida blue is a long shot but foe the first time ever it’s really a serious possibility.
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Oct 23, 2020 07:09
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I think Florida will continue to disappoint. It's truly America's penis.
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Oct 23, 2020 07:10
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Charlz Guybon posted:The numbers look good so far. The Dems have a 462,774 vote cushion so far. Party registration is not a reliable indicator of how someone actually votes. Some people switch parties to vote for spoiler candidates in primaries, especially in years when there's no meaningful primary for the presidential candidate for their party.
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Oct 23, 2020 07:13
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Charlz Guybon posted:The numbers look good so far. The Dems have a 462,774 vote cushion so far. North Carolina has an even better cushion when you consider they have half the population of Florida. 347,578 votes Total Voted: 2,437,417 Total Voted as Percentage of 2016 turnout: 51.1% Total Voted by Party Registration Party Count Percent Democrats 1,038,752 42.6% Republicans 691,174 28.4% Minor 9,312 0.4% No Party Affiliation 698,179 28.6% TOTAL 2,437,417 100.0% Total Voted by Race and Ethnicity Non-Hispanic White 1,611,346 66.1% Non-Hispanic Black 521,616 21.4% Hispanic 46,254 1.9% Non-Hispanic Asian American 33,965 1.4% Non-Hispanic Native American 11,586 0.5% Other/Multiple/Unknown 212,581 8.7% TOTAL 2,437,417 100.0%
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Oct 23, 2020 07:15
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Nelson Mandingo posted:I think Florida will continue to disappoint. It's truly America's penis. Especially with the poll tax they passed
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Oct 23, 2020 07:16
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JT Jag posted:I've seen some preliminary polling in the Duval County area--- Jacksonville itself is a lean blue city that is incorporated with the entirety of Duval County, the suburbs which traditionally are blood red, but Dems seem to be voting early around here in large numbers. If Trump actually loses ground in those areas he's in huge trouble in Florida. Basically, yes. Florida has a lot of fuckery, but it's not Georgia's steal-everything-not-nailed-down bad. The tricounty area of south florida is heavy heavy blue and also a huge chunk of the state pop. That said, it's been balanced by...pretty much the rest of the state. Gulf coast is usually very red (boomer snowbirds and misc retirees) as is the panhandle. Jax you covered. Orlando and I4 to tampa are purplish-red. Essentially, for statewide races it all hinges on countering south florida. If Jax GOP isn't coming out, they have Problems, capital P. If they are losing some of the vote to Dems, that problem becomes likely a mortal one. Biden will underperform in Miami due to crusty old cubans, and that would normally be a big problem. But his popularity with Olds and suburbans in Duval and other places mean they could be a nonfactor this year. Florida is king for going off on bath salt binges and lunging for your face at the drop of a hat, but I think this year it has a good chance of going blue. Note: Early Voting only started on monday for FL (though mail-ins have been a thing for longer) Edit: also tossing out a huge caveat: with numbers this big it's almost certainly starting to eat into Day-Of returns. Take heart in the early numbers, but also have a huge chunk of salt with you. OAquinas fucked around with this message at 07:20 on Oct 23, 2020 |
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Oct 23, 2020 07:18
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Nelson Mandingo posted:I think Florida will continue to disappoint. It's truly America's penis. you can actually apply this statement in any conversation. honestly, literally nothing would surprise me about florida on election day. oh, the ballots were accidentally printed on thermonuclear paper and all florida is now just fallout (yes, there would be no change from today, we get it)? oh, sure.
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Oct 23, 2020 07:20
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The Glumslinger posted:Especially with the poll tax they passed Wait, what? If you're referring to the requirement to pay fines without anyone telling you how much you owe, I thought that was their last ditch effort to stop newly enfranchised ex-felons from voting. Is there another poll tax?
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Oct 23, 2020 07:40
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Nelson Mandingo posted:I think Florida will continue to disappoint. It's truly America.
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Oct 23, 2020 08:21
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Dapper_Swindler posted:https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1319464085369593861 I think my absolute favourite moment of 2020 so far was when Biden said “you said you were Abraham Lincoln”, and Trump was like “no you idiot I said no president since Abraham Lincoln has done as much for black people as me” as though that’s a perfectly normal thing for a human being to say.
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Oct 23, 2020 08:36
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Mizaq posted:Wait, what? If you're referring to the requirement to pay fines without anyone telling you how much you owe, I thought that was their last ditch effort to stop newly enfranchised ex-felons from voting. Is there another poll tax? Yeah that's a poll tax. Though I had heard that Bloomberg arranged for that to be paid off. If that's actually true lol
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Oct 23, 2020 09:35
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I'd give Biden a slightly higher chance of flipping Iowa over Georgia simply because Iowa has a history of being a more elastic state, and the lower population means larger swings are possible. Greenfield also has a better than 50/50 chance of beating Ernst in the Senate race there.
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Oct 23, 2020 10:35
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Jaxyon posted:Yeah that's a poll tax. He's organized a charity that has paid off millions of the fees, but because it's difficult to find out who owes what it's not as effective as it could be. He's also poured in $100 million of his own money to the Florida campaign.
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Oct 23, 2020 11:27
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adoration for none posted:I don't think I've ever known a First Lady disliked as much as Melania in my lifetime. And typically people have a lighter attitude towards the First Lady. Melania is an unlikable shithead and there's plenty reason to dislike her, but I honestly don't think any modern first lady has gotten as much racist/sexist/homophobic/transphobic poo poo slung her way as Michelle Obama did. Like some of the language/depictions were downright vile. Like yeah, Hillary probably got longest-running poo poo smear campaign, but like Michelle straight-up hates the whole bread and circuses of politics for a loving reason.
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Oct 23, 2020 15:48
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Blind Rasputin posted:Flipping Florida blue is a long shot but foe the first time ever it’s really a serious possibility. I definitely get and agree with being pessimistic about Florida, but it's like no one remembers that Obama won it twice.
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Oct 23, 2020 15:50
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Yeah Florida has literally been a swing state for at least 20 years
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Oct 23, 2020 15:51
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Djarum posted:the paper industry destroying millions of acres of old growth forest, mostly to fuel the western’s obsession with toilet paper Uhhhh, toilet paper comes from tree farms. No clue where you got this ridiculous claim from about destroying old growth forests.
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Oct 23, 2020 16:10
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mitztronic posted:Uhhhh, toilet paper comes from tree farms. No clue where you got this ridiculous claim from about destroying old growth forests. yeah all the old growth forest was destroyed long ago, we're just now getting to the state where regrown forests are approaching an old growth stage. nearly all lumber/pulp products come from tree farming, not from the wanton exploitation of virgin forest don't get me wrong, we would absolutely be wrecking virgin forest if there was any left, but it was all cut down decades ago
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Oct 23, 2020 16:16
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I wipe my arse on baby dolphins. They just have the right shape to get in there for a good scoop.
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Oct 23, 2020 16:23
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luxury handset posted:yeah all the old growth forest was destroyed long ago, we're just now getting to the state where regrown forests are approaching an old growth stage. nearly all lumber/pulp products come from tree farming, not from the wanton exploitation of virgin forest Tree farming is preferred because you can plant your forests close to the existing mills and save on transport costs.
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Oct 23, 2020 16:51
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