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John F Bennett posted:This thread was terrible during SPAC days. There were a couple of poster only posting about them and seemingly buying every new one they found about. Those posters have been very quiet since. There are those that realized the music had stopped in February/March 2021 and those who are quiet and bagholding to this day.
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Nov 27, 2022 08:20
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Agronox posted:Punched out of the PCPC liquidation trade I mentioned earlier at $10.08 today. (I estimate its final per share value at $10.099 in two weeks, so whatever.) 2023 portfolio composition: NAV spac redemptions 3-6 month tbills Short 3200% otm UPST calls 🤣
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Dec 3, 2022 04:55
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SavageGentleman posted:Dude really deserves his pay when you assume that his main job is to turn retail traders into bagholders whenever MM need them to be. Business idea: Cramer pushes long UVXY calls 🤞
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Dec 7, 2022 05:28
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2022 was the year where the market did what many expected a lot of the time. See 200 dma almost perfectly capping off the last 2 rally attempts. It seems like everyone expects Q1 bloodbath. Starting to wonder if everyone is a bear. Does 2023 also go how the majority expects? Starting to wonder if it might be worth a shot at some cheap upside convexity.
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Dec 24, 2022 20:05
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It’s okay toal. To be fair it’s not written in Canadian!
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Dec 26, 2022 07:20
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Hope everyone had a good trading year. This market has been brutal. Results: +22% roughly Biggest winners: UVXY and VIX Tactical selling of uvxy and vix calls in a year with major vol underperformance and very few scares Biggest losers: GOOG: didn’t stick to my rules, didn’t let the shares go at my price to cut losses. SPY: hedging costs money 2023: Tbill ladder and sell options against that collateral Gamble less Add to winners Don’t try to fade trends without any signal, technical or otherwise Gamble less
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Dec 30, 2022 22:32
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TD Ameritrade. Tbills are basically like cash (99% margin). I do a ladder of 8w, 3 month, and 6 month bills
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Dec 30, 2022 23:32
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Canine Blues Arooo posted:I adore ThinkOrSwim - I use a small fraction of it's features as I do relatively simple things, but the software is a model for what I feel modern software should be: Feature rich, purpose driven, built for people who care and endlessly customizable. It's some of my favorite software on the planet. TOS desktop love baffles me. It runs like complete rear end, has unintuitive UX, and my chart settings constantly don’t get preserved. I would kill for volume profiles even half as good as tradingview (whose vp are… okay I guess ). Tradingview for charting + order entry via tos mobile just seems so much easier. Even the position monitoring seems highly inferior to either web or iPad running tos mobile. I have a laptop sitting next to me running tos desktop while trading and I often wonder why it’s even open. Are you trying to scalp 2-3 points on eminis or something? Seems like basically anything else (sierra, jigsaw, even TV) would be better to use for daytrading.
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Mar 7, 2023 07:38
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RUM sure but DWAC still has that $10 relative floor. I sold DWAC calls 😈
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Apr 2, 2023 04:28
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Why wouldn’t you buy options this hypothetical makes no sense.
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May 19, 2023 02:17
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Hadlock posted:Because they look at options for insider trading, and you probably shouldn't trust internet advice that the thing is going to happen on the exact date/time I don’t think the SEC is going to flag you for buying your 7 vix calls before a geopolitical black swan.
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May 19, 2023 02:38
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Agronox posted:Anyone doing anything of note now that debt ceiling shenanigans are starting to come into full focus? I put on some index shorts but haven't actually sold any of my longs. Complete and utter carrywhore reporting in. This is the least short volatility I've been in well over a year. Just took a tiny nibble on a VX short today but we are still talking a fraction of my normal size. R/R seems poor right now to be doing much with leverage. Too much headline risk right now, I won't be sizably short vol again until 1) Debt ceiling talks resolve OR 2) Vol moves substantially higher (Vx futures backwardation, VIX 30+) My core portfolio remains net long.
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May 24, 2023 04:16
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Agronox posted:does anyone in this thread trade stocks anymore Imagine trading stocks when there is natural gas and equity index vol to sell. This has been an incredible year so far, 2nd half of March especially. Pull up a chart of uvxy ytd. What a time to be alive 🙏.
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Jun 6, 2023 06:47
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Also depending on how liquid the ETF/etc are you may get a pretty nasty fill right at open. I would place an order during market hours unless it’s something super liquid.
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Jun 28, 2023 23:39
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There aren’t a lot of people interested in trading your stock outside of regular trading hours. Those that are will only trade at massive premium. Some stocks trade much tighter. Most don’t. Don’t gently caress with after hours unless you know what you’re doing.
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Jul 26, 2023 04:51
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When you trade options you are also trading volatility. Blindly selling calls is as much gambling as buying them. You “probably” are at least harvesting variance risk premium, but you’re taking on all the downside risk and capping your upside. Consider just selling or trimming your position vs selling a call, in my anecdotal experience most of the time the former ended up being the right choice.
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Jul 29, 2023 23:20
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Just something to note about selling options into earnings. The variance is extreme. You can have many easy wins then get absolutely devastated by a move like NVDA (which was something like a 6-sigma move). I recommend TINY sizing until you have really gotten killed a few times and understand what it feels like. I generally view it as gambling if you don’t have a specific feeling or volatility forecast on a stock. Do I do it sometimes? Yes to assuage boredom.
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Jul 30, 2023 04:19
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One thing I would add to your diagram is the volatility should be your forecast. And thus the different steps would be decrease, stay the same, or increase. To make sense of this, you would not typically want to sell options if you are forecasting an increase in volatility.
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Aug 5, 2023 19:40
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Baddog posted:Extremely good point. Yellow is very high volatility right now, but I think it's prolly near peak vol. At least if it doesn't get squeezed anymore! Yeah and stocks like that have inverse spot vol correlation. So it’s like selling puts on a normal stock. Normal stock, if it goes down, vol goes up typically, so selling puts can be dangerous as you eat the delta expansion due to Vega and gamma. But yeah for a meme stock if it goes down it’ll typically get IV crushed on the way down, just be mindful you eat massive poo poo as it runs up in your face.
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Aug 6, 2023 03:23
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Jenkl posted:Yeah theory can be enticingly simple and then you get assigned. Assignment is one of the most inappropriately stigmatized parts of selling options. Sufficiently capitalized, with correct margining (portfolio margin) and selling options at appropriate size for your portfolio, assignment is basically a non-issue. Even with reg-T margining it is generally a simple affair, but your chances of getting the oft-stigmatized margin call do increase. The most realistic risk you run into is your broker getting a few days of margin interest/borrow costs while everything settles out again (and any assignment fees if your broker sucks and has those). Also note since you will likely be making trades as a result, your trading commissions/fees will apply. Early assignment is extremely rare outside of 2 main scenarios (which are generally rare as well!): 1) imminent dividend where said dividend is larger/equal to the extrinsic value on the option 2) the option you are short is so deep in the money, there is 0 or pennies of extrinsic value left on the option (or underlying is insanely illiquid) In the case of 1), oh well, since the stock will drop by the value of the div on the next day, it will almost always be a relative wash. Normally this happens when you are short calls. You'll be short 100 shares per contract the next day. You can either cover the short shares and move on (and may have to pay borrow costs if there are any for the next few days until settlement), or you can sell a new option and buy the shares (to close), assuming you still want to be short naked calls. Scenario 2) is I think what people are more afraid of (but really shouldn't be). Let's say you are doing some arbitrage trade where you are short deep ITM calls on SQQQ and TQQQ. Let's say your TQQQ gets assigned early overnight. It is likely that the extrinsic value of said calls was nearly 0, or the spread was so wide on the shares or options that the option dealer (likely your counterparty if you get assigned) did not feel confident in their ability to appropriately hedge their ongoing risk. In this case you will be short 100 shares (if you were short calls), or long 100 shares (if you were short puts) for each contract. This really should not change the risk of the position for you, delta-wise, as for an option to have 0 extrinsic left it basically means the delta was already 100 for those options. You will probably get charged margin/borrow costs as applicable for the next few day settlement window, again this is the main penalty. Typically, if you want to maintain the current position (I'll use the SQQQ/TQQQ short position discussed earlier), you can cover the short shares and sell a new call at the same strike further out in time (as the longer out in time you go, the more extrinsic value there will be on the option in almost all cases). If you get early assigned on an option that had some actual extrinsic value, I would double check with a friend/folks on discord/etc to make sure you're not being a dumbass and missing a dividend or the option mark isn't incorrect due to a wide spread (I've been early assigned well over 100 times and still check with people in cases like these) because if it really did someone gave you a gift of free money. If it really looks like someone else gave you a gift, you can simply re-establish the former position and hope someone else gives you another gift (NOTE: if this happens, BE VERY SKEPTICAL, otherwise you've found free money which shouldn't exist). Note, I think this scenario has happened maybe once or twice to me. TLDR: Early assignment risk is overblown, and you do need to have a plan for when it does happen, but it generally isn't a big deal. Size small assuming early assignment is possible, get portfolio margin if you can, otherwise you can generally re-establish the same position with a longer dated option and the only costs you generally will face are margin/borrow fees during settlement of the shares (and any commissions you pay). fake edit: okay that was longer than I was expecting
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Aug 6, 2023 16:01
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Basically, yeah. With short options you are trading the dopamine of a 1000% gain for boring variance risk premium. Both are gambling if you are doing so without some reason to believe the option is over/underpriced.
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Aug 6, 2023 18:10
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You can see this effect in intraday price action of ES. Dealer positioning flows, especially from SPX 0dte, have major effects on price action. Simply, dealers try to remain delta neutral. Selling you calls means they have to buy positive deltas, either in underlying or swaps, other options etc.
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Aug 18, 2023 07:43
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notwithoutmyanus posted:Not delta neutral, the kicker is remaining Gamma neutral. And tell me, how does an option dealer, most commonly overwhelmingly being a net seller of options, remain gamma hedged?
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Aug 18, 2023 13:03
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That is literally delta hedging. Gamma hedging would be neutralizing your gamma. By buying/selling underlying dealers are re-hedging to delta neutral as gamma/vanna/charm effects play out. To gamma hedge you would need to buy or sell options to neutralize gamma exposure.
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Aug 18, 2023 16:12
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Thank you Janet 🥰
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Nov 3, 2023 23:43
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Looking like around +45% for the year. List of good trades: Short volatility. Bad trades: all the others that were little tiny gambles to keep me amused.
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Dec 30, 2023 09:57
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Love Stole the Day posted:Oh wow, +45% to the whole portfolio, YoY? Correct. Didn’t manage to beat QQQ I’m pretty sure. But was better than last year’s +18%. If I could suppress my urge to do discretionary gambling I would probably be up another 5-10% (will be looking into this once 1099s come in I’m sure).
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Dec 30, 2023 23:36
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Not sure, I trade in taxable. UVXY/other Vol ETF/P options seem to be afforded 1256 treatment so there is a decent tax advantage there already.
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Dec 30, 2023 23:46
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Two naked 90c and a bunch of credit spreads.
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Jan 25, 2024 21:08
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Baddog posted:Short two nakeds makes me sweaty You don't want to see my open positions then, that's for sure.
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Jan 25, 2024 22:18
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Zephyris posted:this poo poo can just as easily dump to the 80s next week. From your lips to god's ears!
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Jan 26, 2024 18:08
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Would not suggest stops on deep ITM options due to likely large spreads. If you are going to do that then set a stop on the shares themselves and that will lock you in wherever it fires today (since the options will zero out your position overnight upon exercise). So if you are now long 10 contracts that are now 0dte = sell 1000 shares trailing stop at whatever underlying price.
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Feb 2, 2024 17:12
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ChocNitty posted:I was trading TQQQ. Then I was recommended TECL instead. Anyone think another tech fund is better? For day trading. Nasdaq futures will be the most liquid and can be traded long and short with minimal margin required for the leverage you get. My understanding is most day traders who trade major indices use futures.
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Feb 3, 2024 03:37
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UnfurledSails posted:It took CISCO a year to bottom out after reaching their all time high. Even their terminal drop from the $60s to $15 took more than half a year, from August 2000 to April 2001. I'm not trying to top tick here so I think I'll be okay selling on the way down. And SMCI is moving 20-30% per day. Not comparable in the slightest.
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Feb 22, 2024 23:55
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