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If you call here, I don't think we have to worry about getting bluffed off our hand later in the hand, given how tight he thinks you are, so I guess it comes down to how loose he is pre with speculative hands. Is KQo calling pre? KJo? We have the A so his bluffing range here is like 6-10 combos of fd, depending on how speculative, while his value range is 4 AK, 2-8 KQ, 0-8 KJ, 3 33. Given that his value range has you crushed, I'm ok with folding this on the flop, but I'm open to arguments that since we should have good chance of being able to play the turn perfectly we can take one off.
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Jul 31, 2014 15:20
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| # ? Apr 27, 2024 18:37 |
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Having A is very important to this hand since it really significantly lowers his FD range. I think Ranma has an okay point about flatting with the plan of folding turns, but I think this mostly applies vs ranges that actually have something like lower pocketpairs. And I can't see lower pocketpairs ever playing the flop this way. My point is that bluffs don't necessarily give up on turns -- at least in my experience there are a huge % of people that once they start bluffing they basically don't give up. Lower FD's could certainly barrel as well. It's a strange spot for him to bluff, but also a strange spot to play Kx really fast for value. Interested to hear others thoughts.
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Jul 31, 2014 15:50
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I think he cold calls with AK here most of the time. KQ and KJs are probably also in his preflop calling range and KJo probably not? Tough to say really because I haven't seen him specifically cold call a 3-bet with KJs or KJo, just making inferences from his past hands he's called with. Edit: and 33 is almost always a call from him here since he is getting decent enough implied odds to flop a set Mind_Taker fucked around with this message at 16:13 on Jul 31, 2014 |
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Jul 31, 2014 15:59
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I think ours + v1's range is too weighted towards kings here to make this a bluff that makes sense. It's perfectly reasonable for him to be raising with even as strong as AK+ both because it's a 2-suited board and also if he's thinking at all he might just be raising because he realizes most people slowplay with flopped trips and it might look a little bluffy?? Probably leveling myself with that thought-process but unless we have a better read it seems like avg villain is going to show up dominating us here too often to do anything but fold.
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Jul 31, 2014 16:26
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I just fold even without the As I think. When he coldcalls I'm not sure he still has all the suited aces anyway even this deep. Anyway blinky nailed it I think. Us and v1 can both have kings all day, and v2 really shouldn't even be raising worse than AK because of how strong we can be. And maybe not even that. Good flat on flop, now I think we just fold. If he's bluffing we're just going to destroy him when we actually have hands.
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Jul 31, 2014 17:41
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Yeah he probably doesn't have all of the suited aces preflop, but I could see him calling with hands like AJs+, KQs, KJs, QJs, JTs, T9s, and 98s some percentage of the time. Not 100% of the time but I would include at least a couple of combos. I ended up folding because I thought he had a ton of value hands on the flop that were crushing me and semi-bluffs that weren't in terrible shape against me, the only thing I'm doing great against is a weird stone cold bluff and that happens very rarely. I don't really think V2 has many kings in his range though, I think he is checking almost all of his Ks to me instead of leading. I do have a bunch of Ks in my range, but I'm not sure if V1 thinks that I would just flat V2's bet with a hand like AK on this flop, which is why bluff raising might be good here?
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Jul 31, 2014 18:55
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woops i meant the guy that raised. i dont think v2 leads with a lot of kings
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Jul 31, 2014 19:40
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I'm watching a Phil Galfond video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w9Dk-1aerz8 And I don't understand a hand he plays around 45:30. He has 48s on the button, UTG raises, co flats, he squeezes to 125 with 4  8, BB who is a regular and assumed thinking/good flats, everyone else folds.Flop: A Q 3 ($322)BB checks, he bets $175 - fairly standard so far Turn: 4 ($672)BB checks, he goes all in for $625 Betting again seems fine, but the sizing confuses me. It seems that a bet of $250 is just as strong as a bet of $625, since there are not many cards that can come on the river that change the action, and by betting smaller you can use leverage to force the BB to commit his entire stack, while only risking half as much. Am I thinking about bet sizing and leverage incorrectly? If the board was more like A T4Q I can see the jam as there are a lot more river action killers, so jamming makes more sense with a legit hand, but here it just doesn't make sense to me.
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Aug 1, 2014 19:59
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Ranma posted:I'm watching a Phil Galfond video Idk there's no reason to turn it into a 3 street game with less than a PSB left on turn with any part of our range. We don't force the BB to commit his entire stack by betting 250 and then being in a garbage river spot for $300 in an $1100 pot. We do it by shoving.
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Aug 1, 2014 21:03
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How do we not? Bet/betting makes the river 400 to win 1500 which he's obligated to call if we have any bluff range, and we obviously can. It just seems like such a quintessential leverage spot, and most likely I'm wrong, but I can't figure out why. Like, why not play both streets when the board isn't going to change much? It's certainly what I would do with AK here
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Aug 1, 2014 21:12
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Ranma posted:How do we not? Bet/betting makes the river 400 to win 1500 which he's obligated to call if we have any bluff range, and we obviously can. It just seems like such a quintessential leverage spot, and most likely I'm wrong, but I can't figure out why. Like, why not play both streets when the board isn't going to change much? It's certainly what I would do with AK here But you'd do it with AK because it gets calls, not because it gets folds. If we are trying to exploit him for being bad we will just shove here with bluffs and bet small with value hands. If he's not able to be exploited that way we should shove an appropriate range.
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Aug 1, 2014 22:14
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Playing 2/5. villain is the target, calls like 70% of my raises. table in general is fairly tight but has had a couple of call cascades. V has made a couple of turn raises vs me and other players, ie - I open, 2 callers, flop Q85r, I bet 2 calls, turn A, I bet 125, villain makes it 280, I fold. Around 3-4 turn raises in the two hours I've been at the table, none all in. Effective stack sizes $700 3 limps to me on the button, I make it $35 with 6 7Q Q3 ($85)He checks, I bet $55, he calls Turn: T ($195)He checks, I bet $185, he puts me all in for $425ish more
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Aug 12, 2014 15:10
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Was he the initial limper or an overlimper? Also does he usually open with smaller suited aces or would you expect him to limp those? I don't think I'm ever finding a fold here without a solid read that he never bluffs in this spot. He has slowplayed Qs that are now scared of clubs, A X that floated flop, PPs with a club that are now semibluffing. You need to call $425 to win like $1000 so I call and am happy about it.Also I think your turn bet is too big, was it sized to make it an all-in bet on the river? I don't think you always have to size bets in order to get all in on the river. I like making it $130-$150 on the turn which I think he will call more hands than he would a $185 bet, leaving about a PSB left on the river where you can size it anywhere up to all in.
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Aug 12, 2014 15:24
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Mind_Taker posted:Was he the initial limper or an overlimper? Also does he usually open with smaller suited aces or would you expect him to limp those? I expect him to limp almost all of his hands, he's raised like maybe twice in the two hours. I don't believe number of limpers in front of him affect his limping range - he was like a 60/5 Turn sizing was because my image was shot and felt he continued with all Qs/PP with a and wanted to be able to get him pot stuck to the river.
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Aug 12, 2014 16:09
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Live $2/$5 full-ring. Villain is a good aggressive regular and we have played with each other a lot. I have like $650 in front of me after losing a pot earlier, villain covers. Folds to Villain in the HJ and he raises to $20. I have A J in the CO and raise to $60, folds to Villain who asks "do you have something good here?" Then he calls after a slight hesitation.Flop: A T7 (Pot: $120)Villain checks, I bet $75, Villain calls. Turn: 9 (Pot: $270)Villain hesitates and looks like he wants to bet, but eventually checks. I bet $165, Villain snap shoves. I fold. --- My thoughts: preflop I sometimes 3-bet and sometimes fold this hand. I think this is okay here in position, thoughts are welcome. Flop I think is a pretty standard bet, I think it hits his 3-bet calling range a decent amount since most mid-suited connectors and broadways are likely calling a 3-bet and they all hit this flop with either a pair or a draw. I think I could have bet more like $85 though. Turn is a bad card for my range and a good card for his range and I actually hated my turn bet after analyzing the hand. I think I should have checked it back and called a lot of rivers depending on the card and bet size. Comments please!
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Sep 4, 2014 15:55
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I flat pre, 3bet is alright but if I'm doing it it is because I don't think I can call and I am going to be folding a good % of his range. If that is the case, I'm not going for 3 streets of value on this board, I'm more likely to check back flop and call two/bet two if checked to me.
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Sep 4, 2014 17:23
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I probably would have flatted with AQ, AJs, KQs, QJs, etc. since they play better multiway (likely to get at least one call out of the blinds). Against weaker players I may have just flatted with AJo, but I thought getting the initiative with position with a not-so-deep stack was okay too. I expected a fold out of a big part of his range preflop because he is aware of positional disadvantage in this hand and he may just want to find a better against weaker players. The reason I bet this flop is because I thought it hit a large part of his range, but didn't hit it too strongly. I think he is calling preflop with hands like suited broadways, 87s - T9s, all pocket pairs to set mine, and AQ/AK. Most of these hands have okay equity against my hand on this board but with me likely still ahead, so I felt betting was preferable on the flop. I don't see him folding 8 7 to single bet, for instance.At the time I was going for a b/b/c line instead of a b/c/b or b/c/c, but I don't think I properly considered how the turn 9 changed things.
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Sep 4, 2014 18:45
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Mind_Taker posted:My thoughts: preflop I sometimes 3-bet and sometimes fold this hand. I think this is okay here in position, thoughts are welcome. quote:Turn is a bad card for my range and a good card for his range and I actually hated my turn bet after analyzing the hand. I think I should have checked it back and called a lot of rivers depending on the card and bet size. Since the flop wasn't that draw heavy, I feel like the extra equity you give draws by checking the turn here isn't that big of a deal, and the hand is going to be much easier to play if we b/c/(call/bet).
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Sep 4, 2014 20:20
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Game is 2/5, hero has been at table for about an hour V1 is a known PLO 5-5 winner, asian, seems standard 2/5 tight pre with more aggression. V2 is an old man but not OMC, has been raising around 1.5 hands an orbit. V1 is $600 deep with hero, V2 is $430 deep with hero Straddle is on, hero is in BB with A J, V1 limps UTG+1, V2 raises to $50, hero calls, V1 callsFlop: A 34 ($155)Hero checks, V1 checks, V2 bets $115, hero calls, V1 makes it $315 Thom Yorke raps fucked around with this message at 20:59 on Sep 10, 2014 |
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Sep 10, 2014 20:49
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I assume V1 is the check/raiser and I fold it.
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Sep 10, 2014 20:51
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EDIT: Yeah, and clarify the hand here, please. If V1 is the check/raiser, did V2 call or fold? It doesn't really change our action, I think. Seems like a definite fold. The big preflop raise and V2 being so short makes it tough to call here pre. We have to be very cautious when we do, and this whole line is just way too strong to stay in. What's V1's limping range here? Seems like many good players are only limping weak pocket pairs in that position, and if he was trapping with a big hand we probably would have heard about it pre. Putting V1 on a set makes the most sense to me here. Imaduck fucked around with this message at 21:00 on Sep 10, 2014 |
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Sep 10, 2014 20:58
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What is V2's position at the table? If he is UTG+2 I am considering folding AJs OOP since his opening range is likely stronger and we are effectively shorter stacked with the straddle. It's nitty I guess but it's a weird spot for me. As played I don't really see many good players open limp suited hands like K Q or even JT, maybe he limp/calls a few lower suited connectors so he really only has a few heart combinations. It's a pretty ambitious bluff to make with V2 betting flop and you calling, there just isn't enough fold equity between both you and V2 for a bluff to get through often enough. And even then he'd be more likely to shove than to make a relatively small flop raise.Everything in this hand screams fold: limp/calling from a decent player usually indicates a small PP heavy range with a reduced number of suited hand combinations, smallish flop raise sizing from V1 which indicates a value hand, very little fold equity from V1's POV, and it's a pretty classic slightly ahead/way behind situation. Mind_Taker fucked around with this message at 21:22 on Sep 10, 2014 |
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Sep 10, 2014 21:06
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id probably just fold pre to the giant open or if that's his standard size just 3b/get it in
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Sep 10, 2014 21:57
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2/5, $750 effective. Hero has been at the table for an hour, bought in for $400, raise/folded a 4 hands on the flop with no cbet (bad boards/parts of my range to continue, sometimes multiway), and has added on $300. Has been the most active preflop of anyone at the table. Villain is a regular who doesn't know hero. Strong actual TAG who gets aggressive with equity and doesn't play too many hands. Definitely thinks about opponents ranges, might think about what he represents. Has made several good sized raises on drawy boards versus cbets and floats in and out of position, his opponents have always folded. Table in general has been fairly loose preflop, with 3-4 players seeing most flops, a decent amount of raising, and tight for $200+ bets especially on the turn. There are at least 2 regulars from the $5/$10 game playing; villain may be one of them. Hero raises to $25 UTG with A K, villain calls in MP, SB and BB call.Flop: A T5 ($100)Checks to hero, hero checks, villain checks I bet here a lot of the time. I checked here because the board is extremely dry, with most hands having 4-5 outs at most, I haven't been cbetting a lot so I should get a lot of respect for my bet, and I don't want to bet 3 streets. By checking I under represent my hand and increase the range that will pay me off. Turn: 6 ($100)Checks to hero, hero bets $65, villain raises to $220, folds to hero, hero thinks for around 30-40 seconds and calls. Ah poo poo this is what can happen when I slowplay. There is about $500 behind and $540 in the pot once I call. This lets villain own us with his draws, since he can have anything from 78 or possibly as light as KJHis value range is 56s, 66, 1 A6s that checked back the flop, maybe 1-2 combos of slowplayed flop set, maybe 2-3 combos of slowplayed A(T|5) flopped two pair. So his value range is 9-11 combos. His strong draw range is 3 nut gutshot/flush draws, 2 gutshot flush draws, 1 OESFD, 6 flush draw + pairs, some of which bet the flop or flat the turn. His weaker draw hands are 3 OESD, 10-15 gutshots, and any number of weaker pairs he decides to turn into a bluff. If we go all in, he will be calling $500 to win $1040 so he needs 32% equity to call. His strong draws have 27% equity against us, except for pair+fd which will have 31.8% equity, and 7:heart:8:heart: which has 34% equity. So he folds 11+1-3+X hands to our turn jam, and calls with 10-12 combos - he may deviate from this, but when he does our jams ev increases. However, he seems to have a similar number of value hands to strong draw raising range, so if his range is mostly strong draws and value hands jamming will mean we're putting in $660 to win $385 when he folds, and will have an average of 12% equity against a range of 66,ThTc,5d5h,65s,AcTc,8h7h,Ac6c. So: TotalCombos=12-X raise/folding+10-12 raise/calling -660*.87+890*.13=-458.5=called ev -458.5*(11/(23+X))+385((12+X)/(23+X)))=0 Which solves to X=1.1 http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=-458.5*%2811%2F%2823%2BX%29%29%2B385%28%2812%2BX%29%2F%2823%2BX%29%29%29%3D0 so if villain raises a little more than 1 combo of OESD on the turn, jamming is more +EV then folding. How about calling? When we call vs a range like 66,ThTc,5d5h,65s,KhQh,KhJh,QhJh,AcTc,Jh9h,Th8h,9h8h,9h7h,8h7h,Ac6c,5h4h we have 40% equity. So our turn EV is: .4*385-155*.6=$61 Our turn jam has the same amount of EV when X=5.6 But it isn't that simple - most cards on the river improve at least 4 combos of our opponents range to beating us, 9 improve 12 combos. So we can't just say our turn EV is $61, since villain will be able to jam 6 combos of draws on the river (4 hit, 2 bluffs to make us indifferent to calling), plus however many value hands he still feels he can jam balanced with 4-6 more of his bluffs. Anyway, I end up calling. A T56River: Q ($540)I check, villain bets $420 I now lose to KJ, however my AQ combos may be enough to prevent villain from valuebetting two pair, so depending on how many KJ combos he has there may be less value combos that beat me. My hand range is probably perceived to be AJ+ (discounted), turn combo draws especially with a pair (discounted), and some slowplayed strong hands similar to his range but also including AA. Of those, if I fold AK he has a profitable jam with 100% of his range. Based on this, I think I should call, especially since I am underrepresented and playing OOP vs a good TAG.
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Sep 28, 2014 22:20
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I feel like we've really caged ourselves by not betting the flop here. If we were heads up, I wouldn't mind the flop check, but our hand is far from nutted and there are 3 other players in the pot. We have position on 2 of the players, so most of the time we're going to be able to pot control on later streets in position. Against players that are tricky and aggressive we're opening ourselves up to some really tough situations and making our opponent's ranges really tough to decipher. As played, I'm really trying to figure out what our opponent thinks we have. Typically, if you seem like a tight player opening UTG, then he should put you on mostly premium hands. When you check the turn, it often means you have something like, JJ-KK and maybe some slow-played sets. Given how you acted on the turn, it's totally reasonable that the villain puts you on a middling pair, and thinks he can push you off of it. With all this info plus your math, I'm leaning towards call turn and call river... but this is going to be very villain dependant, I think.
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Sep 29, 2014 04:05
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Imaduck posted:I feel like we've really caged ourselves by not betting the flop here. If we were heads up, I wouldn't mind the flop check, but our hand is far from nutted and there are 3 other players in the pot. We have position on 2 of the players, so most of the time we're going to be able to pot control on later streets in position. Against players that are tricky and aggressive we're opening ourselves up to some really tough situations and making our opponent's ranges really tough to decipher. This basically seems like kinda perfect advice. I was planning on typing much the same thing.
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Oct 3, 2014 03:44
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While you may not get 3 streets of value most of the time, there is very little reason not to bet this flop 4-handed. You have a good but vulnerable hand, and if you want to increase the range of hands that will pay you off, you could always opt for a b/c/b line where you probably get heads up to the turn instead of letting 3 others see a free turn. If someone has like AJ here how do they ever fold to a b/c/b line? Even KT might pay you off. Also it's a good if you just win on the flop.
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Oct 3, 2014 14:46
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Sounds correct. Here are 2 more! Villain is middle aged man, the mark at the table. Limp/calls a lot preflop, playing around 40% of his hands. Doesn't fold flop very often, nor turn. Hasn't been faced with many large river bets. Heros image is loose pre, has been losing. Bet/bet/folded to a jam on 47Tfd3, hasn't shown down any winners. Effective stacks are $475 Hero raises QQ to $25 in MP. Villain flats from the button Flop: 2 4T ($50)Checks to hero, hero bets $40, villain calls Turn: K ($130)Hero bets $105, villain calls River: 9 ($340)Hero jams $305 Hero raises AK UTG to $30, villain calls in LP Flop: A J9 ($65)Hero bets $50, villain calls Trn: 9 ($165)Hero bets $140, villain calls River: Q ($455)Hero jams $300
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Oct 3, 2014 15:51
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Hand 1: Preflop, flop, and turn are fine against described villain. I think the river bet is way too big and you rarely get called by worse. I don't really like checking river either because you are losing value against Tx hands. I'm b/fing like 1/3 pot here because this player is probably calling with any T, and he's probably only jamming better than QQ so you can actually fold to a jam. Hand 2: Preflop is fine if you are getting calls with a $30 raise, flop is fine, turn bet is probably too big but if you're getting calls from any Ax here it's fine, river is an interesting card. I think it's probably c/decide or maybe even c/f? KT, T8, backdoor clubs, AQ, AJ, 9x, all got there and are almost surely going to bet if checked to. If is he capable of turning QJ, Qx, or Jx into a bluff, or capable of trying to bet you off a chop with Ax, then you can probably just c/c depending on bet size, but as described I don't think he's capable of this. Meanwhile, what bluffs does he have? K X, small suited connector spades, 87? That's really about it, most straight draws either got there or at least paired his Q (in which case he would probably check back river). I just don't see too many bluffs in his river betting range, so the more I think about it the more I think it's a c/f or maybe you can bet small/fold. This decision is also probably dependent on the results of hand 1.
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Oct 3, 2014 18:13
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Hand from a Live $560 MTT with a pretty good structure. Blinds are 2500/5000/500, I have 80k, Villain 1 has about 220k, Villain 2 has about 500k. V1 has been opening about 30% of hands and I have seen him open hands such as 76s, JTo, and A8o from EP. V2 is a station and will call a raise with about 50% of his holdings. He recently got a huge double up. V1 is UTG and opens to 12k. V2 calls in the CO. I have 3 5 in the BB. I...?I decide to call getting a really good price and probably just shoving flop if I hit and the board is somewhat ragged (T63, K52, two hearts, straight draw, etc.). I didn't think shoving preflop was the right play, but it can't be horrible either, right? Flop comes A K8. Pot is 43k right now. I open shove for 68k.Thoughts on preflop, and flop?
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Oct 27, 2014 15:01
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I'm really bad at mtts but I think if I had any K I would call you (and maybe even with an 8 or a 99/TT type hand). I think you never have an ace when you lead out like that. If you had the ace why not check and get the cbet obv. Your hand looks a ton like hearts as played. I think maybe you should just fold pre.
AARO fucked around with this message at 00:21 on Nov 4, 2014 |
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Nov 4, 2014 00:14
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| # ? Apr 27, 2024 18:37 |
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I'm folding pre with a 16bb stack; 53 is a trash hand even when suited and it's only going to get you into trouble, especially with your stack size in a 3-way pot. I think the situation you found yourself in this hand illustrates that pretty well - ask yourself, what would you do with 2 pair in this spot? If the answer is "make a smaller bet" or "check" then you should already see the flaw with the way you played it. I think when you open shove for more than pot your hand is fairly easy to read as a flush draw or weak ace at best. I think I would prefer a shove pre to a flat but frankly I think a shove is pretty bad as well with this hand (only knowing what you've told us about the villains, you say V2 is a station and if he call/calls it off with a hand like 77 you're in terrible shape). You do have a great stack to go for a light 3-bet shove but you should be able to find a better spot than this one, and you definitely should not be calling off chips and chipping away at your ability to make that move. You're in a really bad spot OTF as played because you don't have enough fold equity on even the "bad" hands that may be taking a stab at the pot to go for a C/R (I think even a hand like JTo might call you off which would obviously be a waking nightmare) and a standard lead commits you to the pot with the amount that's already in the middle and the equity you have in the hand. So your only options are check-folding (super weak, and you're likely at a spot in the tournament where you need to be accumulating chips) and open shoving (your hand is pretty much face up) - you probably chose the better of the two options. The real mistake was preflop.
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Nov 7, 2014 23:34
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