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I need some advice. 1/2 No Limit, live game at a local casino. The table is ridiculously loose and I havent played alot of hands. Everyone has fairly even 100BB stacks. No stacks over 200 BB and no stacks below 50BB. I am in the small blind, and the big blind has been straddling every orbit. Out of his last 3 BBs he has raised 2 of them, out of his last 4 straddles he has raised 2 of them. There are 6 limpers for 2 dollers each, and it comes back to me in the SB with K5 hearts. 15:1 odds. However, I notice the big blind grabbing some chips and looking like he is ready to raise. I eye him down for a couple seconds and then fold thinking he is gonna raise for sure. He checks and the board comes K25 2 5 and the BB shows 24 to take down an all in pot vs pocket 10s. I would have stacked 2 people had i called for 1 doller more. Basically my question is this : If you are getting ridiculous odds, yet feel that there is going to be a raise behind you, at what point do the odds become TOO irresistable in case there is no raise behind?
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Mar 10, 2007 18:30
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| # ? May 23, 2024 17:06 |
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With him raising, I am not calling any raise with that so I fold. As far as what raise is too much, I am just looking to limp with that hand, I guess if it was as much as 3 bucks with limpers then I would call but if he raises, I am out. Was your read about him about to raise correct any other times? Just saying cause maybe your "read" was not a good one on him. Just curious about that.
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Mar 10, 2007 20:50
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NL20 hand (woo microstakes!) Anyway, NL20 6-max on Cake. I'm sitting on a 45$ish stack, villian is directly to my left, i'm on the button, he's Small Blind. Not much of a read, he's not paticularly aggro, more of a calling station. Dealt Q8dd calls around, 1 fold I think, I call, he minraises to .40, calls around and I call. Pot is like $2 at this point. Flop comes out KJ9 all diamonds. He bets half pot ($1) and I consider raising, but with a minraise preflop i'm thinking more along the lines of small pocket pair, maybe like A7o or something, so I call, not wanting to scare him out of the hand as theres 1 card in the deck that'll beat me. Also considering check/calling or folding if 4th diamond hits on the turn thinking he has Adx. Pot is like $4 at this point and the turn comes As. He puts in another limp bet of $1, I come over the top of him with a raise to $4 which he thinks for a bit and calls. I'm hoping the A hit him maybe AJ or something and he'll just call all the way down. Pot about $12. River peels the 2c. I feel pretty good at this point because that totally whiffs any possible hand other than maybe he's sitting on 22 and I have him dominated anyway. He puts in $4 with $6 behind. I pump it up to $10 to put him all in and he calls. Turns over ATdd and i'm dominated the whole way, ship him $30+. Oh, and he sat out immediately after this hand and then left, which was lovely, but whatevs. I still ended up +1 buyin last night. So did I play this wrong? If i don't have the absolute nuts (Adxd) should I be more passive (results oriented thinking)? Or is this just a cooler and move on?
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Mar 12, 2007 14:18
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b00 posted:So did I play this wrong? If i don't have the absolute nuts (Adxd) should I be more passive (results oriented thinking)? Or is this just a cooler and move on? There was one card in the deck that could beat you, and only if he had had 2 diamonds. I would have been a little suspicious of his reraise calling on the turn(like assume he has a flush), but not enough to not play it like you did. There is almost no way to get away from that hand without going all in on the river. Pizzlefish fucked around with this message at 16:08 on Mar 12, 2007 |
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Mar 12, 2007 15:41
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In my experience at small stakes, not too many people are floating you here when three of the same suit hit the flop. His bets are really weak but could mean anything unless you've been playing with him a bit to get a read on what he is doing this with. But when he calls that raise on the turn I'm just going to call his bet on the river. Most people here are so afraid of the flush that they will check/call most hands, not lead the river. You may have had a read and you should probably go with it if you feel he doesn't have the AXdd here but what is he betting here on the river short of AXdd? Is he bluffing by betting 1/3 the pot? Probably not. You might see this with a set 10% of the time but they'll probably check/call the river.
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Mar 12, 2007 18:43
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Cooler and move on, especially at small stakes. Players are idiots at that stage. EDIT: VVVV Didn't mean you're bad, I'm at that level too. I just mean in general you aren't going to need to lay down the second nut flush against anyone (without a MONSTER read) in the future at those stakes. Morphius22000 fucked around with this message at 00:24 on Mar 13, 2007 |
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Mar 12, 2007 22:47
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Strong Sauce posted:what is he betting here on the river short of AXdd? Honestly? I was thinking two pair, with Ad, like AKo AJo, something strong enough that he had outs, but still not capable of beating my made flush without the 4th diamond. I see it so much on Cake that I guess I was just stuck in that mindset. WOund up costing me a few bucks, but whatevs. Morphius22000 posted:Players are idiots at that stage. ouch. we have to start somewhere.
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Mar 12, 2007 23:58
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b00 posted:Honestly? I was thinking two pair, with Ad, like AKo AJo, something strong enough that he had outs, but still not capable of beating my made flush without the 4th diamond. I see it so much on Cake that I guess I was just stuck in that mindset. WOund up costing me a few bucks, but whatevs. I'm not saying that it's a bad play, I mean you have the 2nd nut flush and the only thing that is beating you is AX of your suit and since you have two cards of that suit it makes it less likely for him to have that. But here it really seems like he has it. Like I said it's pretty read dependent but most players won't bet out on that river unless they have the nuts or 2nd nuts. He could possibly be blocking bet you with a big set but he can't even fold once you raise this.
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Mar 13, 2007 01:16
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Morphius22000 posted:Cooler and move on, especially at small stakes. Players are idiots at that stage. but you will at higher stakes? 
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Mar 13, 2007 02:37
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Villain has been at the table ~15 hands, no reads just stats of 40/20/2.5. We both have $100. Hero has Q  JI open raise OTB to $4, SB folds, Villain calls Flop 6 J 4Villain open-pushes, Hero GAMBOOOOOL?
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Mar 13, 2007 14:13
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BigJimSlade posted:Villain has been at the table ~15 hands, no reads just stats of 40/20/2.5. We both have $100. Reads?  I'm guessing this is NL100 6max. If villain is in BB (I'm guessing he is) and you have been raising button and pounding them, this could be a 'gently caress OFF' move by them to "keep you in line". If they've done this before and you know what it means (non-set) you are way ahead here against the top 10% of hands. Against AcAx you are 55/45 dog, Non-club AA/KK and you are flipping. I call here since I like to gambool and I don't think the open shove is a sign of strength (omg metagame).
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Mar 13, 2007 22:14
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I agree with CJ. Who the gently caress shoves a set here? At poker.com I would consider it just as likely a misclick than someone purposefully openshoving a set depending on stacks.
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Mar 13, 2007 22:46
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BigJimSlade posted:Hero GAMBOOOOOL? oh gently caress yeah.
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Mar 13, 2007 22:55
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BigJimSlade posted:Villain has been at the table ~15 hands, no reads just stats of 40/20/2.5. We both have $100. Top pair and a decent flush draw. What are the hands that beat you right now? 66 jj 44 KK AA aj kj j4 j6 That's ten hands, not to mention the drawing hands he could have that could beat you. It's a middle of the road hand and hard to lay down. I'd love to see a turn, but I'm not sure I'll bet my entire stack on it. It's easier to bet than it is to call. If I have no read and he hasn't done this in the past 15 hands, I lay it down and let him have it and try not to let him catch me next time. Edit: And it looks like everyone in the free world disagrees with me. 
MelvinTheJerk fucked around with this message at 23:13 on Mar 13, 2007 |
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Mar 13, 2007 23:07
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You would fold? Who open pushes a monster like 66 or JJ? CactusJac's already quoted the important odds so I don't need to, suffice to say you don't look for EVERY POSSIBLE HAND THAT WINS!!!!11! like J6 or J4 after calling a PFR then open pushing.
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Mar 13, 2007 23:34
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Morphius22000 posted:You would fold? Who open pushes a monster like 66 or JJ? CactusJac's already quoted the important odds so I don't need to, suffice to say you don't look for EVERY POSSIBLE HAND THAT WINS!!!!11! like J6 or J4 after calling a PFR then open pushing. The only reason I fold is that I know nothing about this guy yet. Maybe he has a big hand and wants to scare you off a draw. One pot won't kill me and I live to fight another day. If he keeps it up and does it again, I'll call then when I most likely have him dominated because he thinks he can push me around with a crazy all in. Pushing all in with ANY hand there is a bad move. If you have a monster there you could draw more money out of him and pushing all in scares away the money. If you have junk, you run a massive risk of completely over betting a pot you can't hope to win. Either way the only way the other guy is calling is a situation where you can't win, so why bet $100 when $10 will do the trick and gain information? With that said, I would rather err on the side of caution in my first battle with him. EDIT: Just to be clear here, I'm folding because I have no idea what the other guy has. I know what he's likely to have, but he could be a loose player who hit his hand for all I know. I can't put him on a hand and I don't feel good enough about the hand I have to be all in. MelvinTheJerk fucked around with this message at 23:44 on Mar 13, 2007 |
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Mar 13, 2007 23:41
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MelvinTheJerk posted:It's easier to bet than it is to call. That's why villain shoved. He doesn't know what to do, and so he is making it easy on himself and ending his action for the rest of the hand. That move is horrible whether he has trash or a monster, but it's the only way he knows how to play either. Now call and ship the bux. Edit: Remember, we are trying to figure out how good we are against his range, not each individual possible holding. A villain who pushes a set here is likely pushing straight and flush draws as well because he's retarded. I call without thinking twice about it. albedoa fucked around with this message at 00:07 on Mar 14, 2007 |
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Mar 14, 2007 00:03
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I went with the gambool and villain had J6, wtf?! Such a weird play to make, especially considering we have no prior history and I haven't been out of line during his time at the table.
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Mar 14, 2007 00:05
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albedoa posted:That move is horrible whether he has trash or a monster, but it's the only way he knows how to play either. That's what I said, the only difference is that I said I would fold the first time and the next time he pulled that on me, I catch him.
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Mar 14, 2007 00:06
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BigJimSlade posted:I went with the gambool and villain had J6, wtf?! Such a weird play to make, especially considering we have no prior history and I haven't been out of line during his time at the table. That's rough, but it's also why I would have folded. Get him next time, Big Jim.
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Mar 14, 2007 00:08
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MelvinTheJerk posted:That's what I said, the only difference is that I said I would fold the first time and the next time he pulled that on me, I catch him. The thing is, you might not have a similar opportunity like this. Both the strength of your hand and the possibility that his money will go elsewhere before you can get it put more weight on a call. MelvinTheJerk posted:That's rough, but it's also why I would have folded. Results-oriented.
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Mar 14, 2007 00:09
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albedoa posted:The thing is, you might not have a similar opportunity like this. Both the strength of your hand and the possibility that his money will go elsewhere before you can get it put more weight on a call. Hey, I said I would have folded long before he posted what the other dude had. And of course you'll have another chance like this. It's a short handed ring game. You just have to be patient.
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Mar 14, 2007 00:11
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Not if someone else gets this donk's money. You are passing up so much value if you fold here.
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Mar 14, 2007 00:12
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albedoa posted:Not if someone else gets this donk's money. You are passing up so much value if you fold here. Then we just have two different styles. I won't get involved with a weird move like that on my first play against the guy unless I have the nuts. I bet $4 and somehow he's raising $100. He bets $10-15 I call. He pushes all in? No way. For no other reason than I do not have enough information to make the call.
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Mar 14, 2007 00:15
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albedoa posted:Not if someone else gets this donk's money. You are passing up so much value if you fold here. Not only that, but we're still more or less flipping even if our J is dominated or reverse dominated [which btw, I think we're reverse dominated here a ton]. Call, hit flush, ship bux.
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Mar 14, 2007 00:16
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MelvinTheJerk posted:Then we just have two different styles. I won't get involved with a weird move like that on my first play against the guy unless I have the nuts. Jesus. Christ.  You're right, we have different styles.
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Mar 14, 2007 00:16
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albedoa posted:Jesus. Christ. If I'm holding a set, I call in an instant. Maybe AJ four the flush I call. QJ? There was too much out there beating me, and my hand isn't good enough to call what is obviously an INSANE MOVE. I fold to the insane move. What the hell is so wrong about that?
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Mar 14, 2007 00:20
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Edit: Nevermind. Dissection over.
albedoa fucked around with this message at 00:28 on Mar 14, 2007 |
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Mar 14, 2007 00:24
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MelvinTheJerk posted:If I'm holding a set, I call in an instant. Maybe AJ four the flush I call. QJ? There was too much out there beating me, and my hand isn't good enough to call what is obviously an INSANE MOVE. I fold to the insane move. David Sklansky posted:Mason Malmuth posted:Dmitri Nobles posted:
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Mar 14, 2007 00:31
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We ballin' now!
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Say what you will, but it turns out I was right in that particular situation and I'm not going to suddenly change my mind because you posted a few emoticons. I'll drop it though. I made my point and it's just one opinion.
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Mar 14, 2007 00:34
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MelvinTheJerk posted:Top pair and a decent flush draw. What are the hands that beat you right now? Do you know what his equity against this range is? Except for the sets, he is anywhere from 50/50 to 44/56 against all of these hands, and he beats all of the drawing hands. It has to be a call; it's thin, but you're never really in bad shape. Also a more realistic range is something like {44,66,J8-AJo, 57, xx cc} (yeah, I know he showed up with J6) which he has very, very good equity against if you weight the hands combinatorially. Basically this is one of those hands that you don't fold unless he flips over a set; against J6 (the worst case non-set scenario), you lose $96 54.5% of the time and you win $104 (in this rakefree world) 45.5% of the time This means that calling is only a $5 mistake! Calling against KJ or AJ is only a $1.4 mistake. e: By the way, AJcc has almost exactly the same equity against the range I outlined there then does QJcc. The only hands it really makes a difference against are the AA-QQ hands, each of which our villian has approximately never. blah_blah fucked around with this message at 00:52 on Mar 14, 2007 |
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Mar 14, 2007 00:43
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blah_blah posted:Do you know what his equity against this range is? Except for the sets, he is anywhere from 50/50 to 44/56 against all of these hands, and he beats all of the drawing hands. It has to be a call; it's thin, but you're never really in bad shape. Also a more realistic range is something like I understand that, and I still say that it's too close for me to call. Does that make me a bad player? I don't know, you tell me. I'll say this though: I wouldn't have lost $96 after making a $4 bet. EDIT: AJcc means that I'm not going to be outdrawn on a flush if he's chasing, which is very feasible and if he is, he's just stolen a whole lot of outs from me because a flush means that I lose if he has the A or K. MelvinTheJerk fucked around with this message at 00:54 on Mar 14, 2007 |
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Mar 14, 2007 00:49
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^^^ Why don't you post 13 more replies about it?
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Mar 14, 2007 00:52
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MelvinTheJerk posted:I understand that, and I still say that it's too close for me to call. Does that make me a bad player? I don't know, you tell me. I'll say this though: I wouldn't have lost $96 after making a $4 bet. Of course you wouldn't have lost it, because you wouldn't have put it in the middle. We're not idiots, Melvin. We know that you can't lose what you don't bet. That's not the point.
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Mar 14, 2007 00:52
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MelvinTheJerk posted:Does that make me a bad player? I don't know, you tell me. I'll say this though: I wouldn't have lost $96 after making a $4 bet. No (although I doubt you realized exactly how close it was). It is very high variance and avoiding coinflips for full stacks is a good thing for your sanity a lot of the time. But I try to pick tables where I think some of my opponents are brain damaged, and when they open shove into me and I have such a relatively strong hand, where calling is never that big of a mistake but it can be very +EV because my opponents do stupid things, I have to call here. Even the implied odds of being deep alone can make the call +EV when you consider all things.
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Mar 14, 2007 00:56
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MelvinTheJerk posted:EDIT: AJcc means that I'm not going to be outdrawn on a flush if he's chasing, which is very feasible and if he is, he's just stolen a whole lot of outs from me because a flush means that I lose if he has the A or K. He cannot have a flush draw and a better pair than you. If he has any sort of draw, regardless how big, you are favored to win the hand.
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Mar 14, 2007 01:02
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blah_blah posted:No (although I doubt you realized exactly how close it was). It is very high variance and avoiding coinflips for full stacks is a good thing for your sanity a lot of the time. Now why would you have to go and say a thing like that? It's baseless and considering I said from the get-go that I didn't want to flip coins for my stack. I know that you're never that far behind with top pair and a flush draw, but I also made the point that it's close enough that I don't want to do. Whatever, I'm going home and I'm done with the conversation. Take it easy.
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Mar 14, 2007 01:09
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MelvinTheJerk posted:Now why would you have to go and say a thing like that? Some equity calculations in poker are counterintuitive. Pair + FD, overcards + FD, etc, and they can be kind of shocking the first time you see them. I am sorry if that sounded patronizing, as that entire post was aiming to be non-inflammatory (personally I am willing to shove my entire stack in any time I get a hint of something being +EV, which often leaves me crying into my pillow after bad sessions).
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Mar 14, 2007 01:19
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Melvin have you been offered a chance to write those articles that FTP puts out regarding gameplay/game theory? It can be "Learn from the Pros 'Be results oriented and play like a weak tight bitch' by MelvintheJerk." I think a lot of those smaller stakes and DnG players would agree with you here.
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Mar 14, 2007 03:03
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Line check Commerce 3/5 I have $800 or so, both blinds cover me. Both blinds havent done anything out of the ordinary and shown down big hands almost every time they have gone to showdown. They both seem to be better than the usual mix of mouth breathers. I raise 98s in MP to $35 after some limpers before me. Both Blinds call. Limpers somehow fold (its live play like wtf they never fold!!! ) Flop $120ish in pot 9c8cTs Blinds check to me, I bet out $90. SB checkraises me to $350 BB smoothcalls. Hero ? I really feel like I'm ahead of anything here other than a flush draw and JJ/QQ/KK/AA which I cant really put them on since there wasnt a 3-bet preflop from them.
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Mar 14, 2007 03:10
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