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AVG's AJo hand: I think you guys are really overestimating how often somebody is going to be bluffing here, or even semibluffing. It's kinda hard to say without good reads or stats, but really villain is going to have us crushed here pretty often. Here's a stove with a decent range, you can add some more FDs and maybe a few combo's of AT and take out some combo's of JT, but it shouldn't change too much. code:
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Jul 28, 2009 21:45
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ZeroStar said mostly what I was thinking -- I know you guys know way more than me but I wonder if some of you farther removed from NL10 might be overestimating the bluffiness of unknowns and underestimating their ability to flat AK/AQ ("It's just a drawing hand"). Worse aces will also be in there, sure, but I'd say the range ZeroStar stoved is about what I'd expect, probably add some AT's as well, so it's definitely a close, interesting decision.
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Jul 29, 2009 00:50
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A Violence Gang posted:ZeroStar said mostly what I was thinking -- I know you guys know way more than me but I wonder if some of you farther removed from NL10 might be overestimating the bluffiness of unknowns and underestimating their ability to flat AK/AQ ("It's just a drawing hand"). Worse aces will also be in there, sure, but I'd say the range ZeroStar stoved is about what I'd expect, probably add some AT's as well, so it's definitely a close, interesting decision. Getting it in with top pair 2nd kicker on a drawy board vs an opponent who just flatted preflop and is playing at NL10 is probably neither an interesting or close decision.
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Jul 29, 2009 00:57
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ZeroStar posted:AVG's AJo hand: yes if he calls 100% of the time we are behind but he doesn't call nearly 100%, that's the whole point anyway it's exactly like umike said, this is top pair on a wet board vs an nl10 random, it's not even close
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Jul 29, 2009 01:01
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If you get stuck on decisions like this it's probably better for you to fold AJo and open other hands that aren't being dominated by this person's calling range or conversely to check/call this flop. Check/calling seems bad here though since you're giving free cards to a lot of draws.
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Jul 29, 2009 01:36
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Ryouga Inverse posted:yes if he calls 100% of the time we are behind but he doesn't call nearly 100%, that's the whole point Yeah you're right he folds some of the hands we're ahead of but always gets it in when we're crushed. The stove I posted was just to give everyone an idea of our equity in the pot once he raises, it wasn't meant to be a range that he's going to call a shove with or anything. Maybe somebody can try to work out an EV calc if they have time, but really if everyone's suggested line is 3bet/get it in or just shove I think it's going to end up close and very opponent specific. One important thing about the uNL games is that there's a wide range of opponents you'll face, the value of your play here is going to swing a good amount either way depending on who your opponent is. Strong Sauce posted:If you get stuck on decisions like this it's probably better for you to fold AJo and open other hands that aren't being dominated by this person's calling range or conversely to check/call this flop. Check/calling seems bad here though since you're giving free cards to a lot of draws. Saying that he should c/c here is really results oriented. It's pretty rare to get raised in general by most guys at microstakes, just bet the flop when you hit TP it's pretty easy.
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Jul 29, 2009 01:58
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ZeroStar posted:Saying that he should c/c here is really results oriented. It's pretty rare to get raised in general by most guys at microstakes, just bet the flop when you hit TP it's pretty easy. Did you miss the part where you quoted me saying that it's bad to check/call on this drawy board?
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Jul 29, 2009 02:10
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I read the post and yeah you kinda took back the part about check/calling but you still posted it in the first place so I don't really know where you stand on the issue exactly. The whole post just seemed results oriented to me. We're going to have to fold TPGK sometimes and there are going to be problems with domination sometimes but really I think any winning player is going to be fine opening AJo here, or they should at least do it anyways and slowly get better.
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Jul 29, 2009 02:19
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I'm not sure where to upload cake histories so I'll just type this up: Villain is fairly TAG and is in the small blind. I act before him and have been raising on the button all morning. He has played back at me (i.e., 3-bet) from the SB about 4-5 times. He's sort of aggressive post flop but his bets aren't as big as when he has missed (bluffing). That being said, I won a big pot off him a couple of hands prior when I flopped two pair so he might be steaming. We're both sitting at about 150 BB. Folded to me on button and I have AA, I raise to 3x. He reraises to 12x from SB (probably 4th time he has done this). I call because I figure pushing just makes a lot of his bad hands fold, and I think 4-betting pretty much gives me away as having AA/KK/QQ/AK? Flop 3,5,7 rainbow and he bets out half pot, I raise to 2.5x his bet and he calls. Turn is K and he pushes (I guess about pot size), and I?? I actually really liked the king on turn since he might have AK/KQ and maybe even KJ. I think the flop bet could be seen simply as a CBet and doesn't really mean much? Given all this is there a clear reasoning for call or fold on turn? Ducks fucked around with this message at 17:54 on Jul 29, 2009 |
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Jul 29, 2009 17:50
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Ducks posted:I'm not sure where to upload cake histories so I'll just type this up: Snap call
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Jul 29, 2009 18:05
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http://cakepoker.com/en/HandHistory/Default.aspx?Hand=xc3AxcTFxsPFxcTExcPHwIjNxMfEwsI%3d This guy was constantly 3betting me from the blinds. I decided to see how he'd hold up to a 4bet, so I had A2s here. After the 3bet I just pot raised here. He calls and I 2/3 the flop. This might not be a great play, or even a good play, probably horrible. But I wanted him to know I'm not going to be pushed around with his blinds squeeze plays. He never did it again after also. http://cakepoker.com/en/HandHistory/Default.aspx?Hand=xc3AxcTFxsPFxcTExcPAwYjNxMfEwsI%3d I also decided I needed to be lighter with AK. AK is by far my weakest hand since when I miss I don't know if I should two barrel into it. Here the villian with AA earlier stacked off with bottom pair. I had no real read of him other than seeing that. Of course I have no problem getting it in with the shortie. http://cakepoker.com/en/HandHistory/Default.aspx?Hand=xc3AxcTFxsPFxcTExcPDzIjNxMfEwsI%3d I was afraid of the exact hand he had here, mo runbad that I probably couldn't get away from. http://cakepoker.com/en/HandHistory/Default.aspx?Hand=xc3AxcTFxsLNxsTExcLAzIjNxMfEwsI%3d KJs here. The C/R could mean anything here since for some reason NL10 players LOVE to c/minraise with a variety of hands. The turn sucked for me but I laid it down for him to show the nut flush. He later also flopped a boat I got away from since he played the exact same way.
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Jul 29, 2009 22:33
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Xyven posted:3/6 3-handed against a good aggro player who can handread pretty well but likes to run big bluffs a little bit too much. Effective stacks are 782 calling here some % of the time cant be bad, so you may as well do it. especially vs someone where your past history might actually matter, gotta keep them honest.
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Jul 29, 2009 23:34
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to 18 on the button and villain in the BB 3bets to $63. I call.
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History: I raise/shoved my pair+gutshot+flush draw versus villains flopped straight and hit on the river, which he is not happy about. Live 1/2 during the day. Villain is a bit of a nit, I think he is a regular in the room. Someone raises, I call in position with Q  T, a couple other callers, villain calls in the small blind. We have about 400 effective stacks.Flop comes down 7  89 Pot is around 30-40$Original raiser bets 20$, villain tries to call his bet before I act, I raise to 50$ (I meant to do larger, it was a mistake), sb calls the 50$, original raiser calls. Turn: 2 Villain pretty quickly ships around 340$ into the ~200$ pot I fold. Too weak tight? Another old regular at the table commented that villain probably had the nut flush.
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Jul 30, 2009 02:25
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Gr1mm posted:http://cakepoker.com/en/HandHistory/Default.aspx?Hand=xc3AxcTFxsPFxcTExcPHwIjNxMfEwsI%3d Hand 2: Ask someone who plays those stakes, but going broke with AK preflop is usually fine Hand 3: I would raise larger usually blind versus blind. From your description, I doubt you had any reads, so I would probably flat the minraise and look for an excuse to fold the turn, or maybe fold to the minraise, but I'm not that good. Hand 4: I would definitely call the turn, you have top two and people are retard shoving pairs plus flush draws all the time.
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Jul 30, 2009 02:34
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Ranma posted:History: I raise/shoved my pair+gutshot+flush draw versus villains flopped straight and hit on the river, which he is not happy about. In my experience live players have huge betsizing tells. They bet huge with their big hands and small when they're bluffing or scared. I think this is a fine fold 200bb deep live. The fact that you still have an out makes me want to call though. I hate folding.
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Jul 30, 2009 11:19
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Xyven posted:In my experience live players have huge betsizing tells. They bet huge with their big hands and small when they're bluffing or scared. I think this is a fine fold 200bb deep live. The fact that you still have an out makes me want to call though. I hate folding. I was doing it from memory, but I realized that I didn't have an OESFD, the 7 was a heart and the 8 was a club (or whatever).
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Jul 30, 2009 17:01
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That hand is pretty retarded. Really comes down to reads here I think, you gotta know if he can be overplaying a weaker flush here or if he is the type to slowplay the nuts rather than just jam his stack in. I would say that both of these things are pretty likely in a game with weak low stakes live players. With most people I wouldn't be surprised to see a combo draw here either, but that's probably rare. For me it's just so hard to put him on the nut flush here since he just shoved, seems like something somebody would do with a weaker flush more often for protection. I would call unless I had a good read about the things I listed off.
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Jul 30, 2009 18:50
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ZeroStar posted:That hand is pretty retarded. Really comes down to reads here I think, you gotta know if he can be overplaying a weaker flush here or if he is the type to slowplay the nuts rather than just jam his stack in. I would say that both of these things are pretty likely in a game with weak low stakes live players. With most people I wouldn't be surprised to see a combo draw here either, but that's probably rare. For me it's just so hard to put him on the nut flush here since he just shoved, seems like something somebody would do with a weaker flush more often for protection. I would call unless I had a good read about the things I listed off. I don't think I'm folding a flush that strong against a random live retard short of an insane read. I mean, he's a bit of a nit ok, but I don't think he can ONLY have the nut flush, there's gotta be other flushes/straights he can have. I'm a huge loving station though so keep that in mind.
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Jul 30, 2009 18:59
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I hate these situations because if he's a nit he always has it but gently caress me if I have to fold the 3rd nut flush here.
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Jul 30, 2009 22:35
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Gr1mm posted:
Ranma nailed pretty much everything I was thinking, but I wanted to add just a few things. Hand 1 : There are some people who 3b light even at micros, and there are a few rare spots that I have found where 4b bluffs can work. The only thing to keep in mind in these spots is that since your stack size is going to be so much smaller compared to the pot, that your 4b can be smaller than a normal 3b would be, and your cb can also be much smaller. If I decided to 4b I would probably make it 2.3-2.5, and then cb right around 1/2 pot. I would do this regardless of what I had. Hand 2 : Standard, it's usually fine to just get it in w/ ak pre, and you should never ever 4b a hand like ak / qq / whatever value hand you have w/out intending to call a 5b shove. Hand 3 : I'm not sure why Ranma would raise > 3bb pre in the sb. If I was in the bb and the sb had already limped I would make it 4x since he has already limped, but in the 3b I just do 3x like normal. I stack off on the flop too although I'm not thrilled because I don't fold overpairs. Hand 4 : I stack off on the turn and expect to see something like at w/ the Ad alot of the time.
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Aug 2, 2009 04:24
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cricket eater joe posted:Hand 3 : I'm not sure why Ranma would raise > 3bb pre in the sb. If I was in the bb and the sb had already limped I would make it 4x since he has already limped, but in the 3b I just do 3x like normal. I stack off on the flop too although I'm not thrilled because I don't fold overpairs. sb vs bb, when you are in the sb you are going to have to raise a slightly tighter range in the sb then the bb, unless the bb is a huge nit. Also, the bb is going to have position on you on every street. For this reason, you want it to be more expensive for him to call your preflop raise, and you want the pot to be a little bit bigger. When you are in the BB, your range for raising a limper should be extremely wide, and you have position, so you are okay with raising a little bit smaller, since they have to play out of position your smaller raise is more threatening then a larger raise from out of position.
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Aug 2, 2009 18:15
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2 hands. http://weaktight.com/1351124 Here I think I can get him off of some better pairs on the river, but I do have some sd value against his high card hands that picked up a straight draw on the turn. I basically think I can get him to fold most one pair hands w/ a t, 99, and maybe some jacks, but probably not all of them. Thoughts about bluffing the river vs checking for sd value? http://weaktight.com/1351131 On this hand I have been very active and 3bing quite a bit. This is the first time this guy has 4b me though. I think I have just barely the right odds pf to call to setmine, but it's very close. I'm not sure I like my flop play though. I decided that through card elimination / bet size that there was a decent chance he had kk and would fold to a shove, but I think this was probably spewy.
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Aug 3, 2009 15:48
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1. You probably don't have much showdown value unless he's really stationy, so kinda a judgement call there. I think he has a ten here very often, most people are just folding 7x but depending on the player he could have KQ or AQ, AK. I don't really like the turn bet though because I think you're not getting much value and you're value cutting yourself often, only plus side is protecting your hand really. So it's good that you're betting the river once you bet the turn if you think he can fold a ten, because otherwise I think betting turn and checking back is going to be worse than just checking back the turn. So I don't mind the play but generally just check back and try to see a showdown here once he checks the turn. 2. I am not an expert on set mining odds but I think you need to fold preflop. Not sure on the flop play, if you really think he can be 4betting light then it is probably OK. Otherwise it's probably a losing play if he has a traditional tight 4betting range, especially if he doesn't always bet JJ and KK on this board which is something kinda important to have a read towards.
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Aug 3, 2009 22:38
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Hand 1 seems fine to me - the board got scary and he'll fold a lot of tens here and occasionally a lovely jack. Hand 2 just fold preflop. Also how does card elimination mean he most likely has KK? I mean I understand if you can read his bet size but I even with an A on the board he's still more likely to have the combination of AA/QQ/AK/AQ than KK/JJ
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Aug 3, 2009 23:04
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Two hands from a live session at the Vic. £1/£2 blinds Hand 1: I have Queens in the SB. 3 limpers to the button (£125 stack, I have him covered) who raises to 12. I 3bet to 38. Button calls after a short pause. No reads on Villain or table dynamic, played about 5 hands. Flop: Ace Ace Jack rainbow. I figure I’m in a way ahead of way behind situation. So I check, he checks behind. Turn is 4x Turn: I bet £28 into the pot. As soon as I made this bet I really really hate it. I think the only worst thing that calls is TT/99. He insta raises to 75. Hero???? Am I playing check fold on this flop or do I half pot the flop and fold to a shove getting an awesome price. Hand 2: J7o in the big blind blind. UTG Limps followed by another 5 people and I check. Flop is 7h 7d 2x I check the flop, I’m not sure on the merits of leading. UTG overbets £20 Followed by an instacall from MP. I debate raising but in a 3 way pot I really don’t love my hand that much. I elect to call. Turn is Qh I check, UTG checks and MP quickly fires 68, UTG mucks his hand out of turn. Villain is an old aged reg but seems solid. I have about £240 behind me and MP has me covered. Hero??? Goodeh fucked around with this message at 00:42 on Aug 4, 2009 |
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Aug 4, 2009 00:33
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ultimatemike posted:Also how does card elimination mean he most likely has KK? I mean I understand if you can read his bet size but I even with an A on the board he's still more likely to have the combination of AA/QQ/AK/AQ than KK/JJ Well I figure that since there is an A and a Q on the board there are now less combos of each of this individually against KK, and I decided to take AK / AQ out of his range since I don't think he would fold either of those hands. This leaves me w/ KK which is the one hand that I can conceivably convince to fold, so I decided to put him on that and shove. Seriously - preflop might have been close since we're like 130ishbb deep, but a normal fold, and I was really sure that may flop play was utter garbage and I just got lucky. Goodeh - Hand 1 - Sometimes I cbet the flop, sometimes I check and bet the turn like you did, sometimes I just check and hope it checks down. If I do bet at some point I usually fold though, although I wouldn't mind c/cing some turns. Hand 2 - I would typically lead this flop, but as played I would just flat the turn and c/c the river as well. The passive route unfortunately lets him play pretty optimally against us since we really look like a 7, but I'm not sure what else to do. I guess there's probably some merit in crai on the turn also since he's probably not folding any 7, and the only reasonable 7 he can have that beats us is A7, but if he does have a 7 it's probably going in on the river anyways, so our cr only gets him to fold some strange one pair hands that we already beat, while denying us of some more action we might get on the river if he likes to valuebet light.
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Aug 4, 2009 04:19
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cricket eater joe posted:Well I figure that since there is an A and a Q on the board there are now less combos of each of this individually against KK, and I decided to take AK / AQ out of his range since I don't think he would fold either of those hands. This leaves me w/ KK which is the one hand that I can conceivably convince to fold, so I decided to put him on that and shove. Ah, so the dolce hand reading theorem. Got it.
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Aug 4, 2009 04:54
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Goodeh posted:Two hands from a live session at the Vic. Hand1: I'd try to check it down but I'd check-call most rivers. Turn bet size is really bad because I think you might have induced something due to its small size. Hand2: It really feels like the villain has a 7 but you say he's solid so that discounts many of the 7s that beat you leaving only A7 and 22 that do. Assuming he only calls a check-raise with trips or better it's kinda hard to estimate whether you're ahead or behind without knowing how tight this guy is. But you're probably ahead and this being live I'd say go for the higher variance move and check-raise the turn. This might be a little different if UTG had not mucked out of turn though. Here's a hand I played earlier that I'm really not sure about. 1/2 6 handed with $420 effective stacks PREFLOP CO (TAG regular, no specific reads - 200bb) raises to $7 and button calls (also TAG, a little on the tight side, not very creative but fairly solid - 200bb stack) I 3bet to $27 in the BB with A KCO folds and button calls FLOP (Pot is $62): 3 49I bet $35 and Button raises to $96, I ???? I'd been squeezing a bit this session and I think the button has noticed this. Is there any move here but to push? There's a lot of money in the middle already and while I'm likely to only be called by sets how often does he really have those? I discounted 33 and 44 a bit from his range because even though we are 200bb deep I don't think he calls with those all that often since he knows I'm squeezing somewhat light making set mining not profitable. However I did say that he is not very creative and I have not seen him make this sort of move before as a bluff so I really don't know. Deepstacked poker is pretty hard out of position.
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Aug 4, 2009 08:09
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dsquash posted:I'd been squeezing a bit this session and I think the button has noticed this. Is there any move here but to push? There's a lot of money in the middle already and while I'm likely to only be called by sets how often does he really have those? I discounted 33 and 44 a bit from his range because even though we are 200bb deep I don't think he calls with those all that often since he knows I'm squeezing somewhat light making set mining not profitable. However I did say that he is not very creative and I have not seen him make this sort of move before as a bluff so I really don't know. Deepstacked poker is pretty hard out of position. I'm getting it in. With 2 overcards, a backdoor straight draw and a flush draw you're most likely a flip and you'll definitely have some fold equity. I don't think you can really flat this since if you brick turn your equity goes way down. I think you're also underestimating the "gotcha" from a reg that picked up QQ+ and thinks he's trapping you.
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Aug 4, 2009 08:19
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My immediate thought was ship but I missed that we're 200+ deep. But, since we 3b our effective stack is much shallower, and assuming that folding is out of the question if we just flat that's putting in 30% of our stack and should be committing us. Since we're probably committed anyways I would still be more inclined to ship. What are the merits of just flatting pre since we are deep? I've listened to a lot of strategy that say the deeper they are the less inclined they are to 3b light, or 3b value hands like ak for a reason I haven't figured out yet. . Deepstack is hard, I like my 100bb shipfest 6max games.
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Aug 5, 2009 02:45
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ultimatemike posted:Ah, so the dolce hand reading theorem. Got it. hahah
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Aug 5, 2009 03:37
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I'm not a great NL player or anything but I know a few reasons not to 3-bet AK light when you're deep. One reason is deception. Deception is key when you are deep because you can take much more use of information than when you're shallow. Another reason would be the Sklansky Chubukov numbers. Basically it's a way of measuring the equity of hands heads up. The deeper you are, the less ev it is to be getting all in with hands, because you're deep enough for someone to basically catch a good hand enough of the time to have your AK a dog and you don't want to invite a four bet. Those are two reasons I can think of, and there are probably more.
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Aug 5, 2009 03:38
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Carbon Copy posted:I'm not a great NL player or anything but I know a few reasons not to 3-bet AK light when you're deep. One reason is deception. Deception is key when you are deep because you can take much more use of information than when you're shallow. Another reason would be the Sklansky Chubukov numbers. Basically it's a way of measuring the equity of hands heads up. The deeper you are, the less ev it is to be getting all in with hands, because you're deep enough for someone to basically catch a good hand enough of the time to have your AK a dog and you don't want to invite a four bet. Those are two reasons I can think of, and there are probably more. So how exactly do we use this great deception with AK to milk good money?
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Aug 5, 2009 04:30
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Assuming your tight/solid read is accurate and considering it's 1/2, I think almost all of his range is 99 or overpairs, and as ultimatemike noted he can really have any overpair since those type of players get really trappy with position. We're basically flipping against that range, but obviously he's going to fold the worse hands at least some of the time (plus the occasional air) and always call with top set. I would probably just shove anyway since folding is stupid and we're not deep enough to just call. Regarding preflop, I don't think three-betting or flatting is clearly the correct play, although my initial instinct is to three-bet against a CO raise/button call.
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Aug 5, 2009 05:17
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Carbon Copy posted:Another reason would be the Sklansky Chubukov numbers. Also, deeper stacks doesn't somehow make it more likely that someone else has a good hand. It does make it more profitable to see cheap or reasonable flops so you can win someone's entire stack, but it doesn't suddenly make us any less happy that someone put in their entire stack with 87s against our AKo. AK wants to be all in preflop against everything but AA and KK, assuming there's a bit of dead money to subsidize the flips. MC Fruit Stripe fucked around with this message at 05:37 on Aug 5, 2009 |
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Aug 5, 2009 05:33
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I'm not a great NL player so I can't enumerate examples on how to take advantage of this deception, I just know these are reasons that are mentioned. Obv. hands that beat AK aren't more likely to come up when you are deeper, but getting all in with AK and 100BB stacks isn't usually a mistake, but if you're 400-500BB deep and you get 4 bet it's more serious I think.
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Aug 5, 2009 05:47
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SC numbers have nothing to do with whether you should 3bet AK or not, they're simply a measure of how deep you can shove that hand such that it's guaranteed to be profitable even if your opponent knows your hand. It makes no sense in this example since there was a raise and flat so obviously neither villain's range is 100%. I'm 3betting here probably every time since playing a 3 way pot out of position blows.
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Aug 5, 2009 06:02
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Thanks for the help everyone. I did shove and he called me with 33 but I agree that it's probably the right play since he shows up here with an overpair or decides to pure bluff at least some of the time. I think the mistake I made was the 3bet size. I should have made it a little bigger due to stack sizes. As for calling vs 3betting preflop I'm really not a fan of calling. Like ultimatemike said, playing out of position really blows.
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Aug 5, 2009 06:51
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Carbon Copy posted:I'm not a great NL player so I can't enumerate examples on how to take advantage of this deception, I just know these are reasons that are mentioned. Obv. hands that beat AK aren't more likely to come up when you are deeper, but getting all in with AK and 100BB stacks isn't usually a mistake, but if you're 400-500BB deep and you get 4 bet it's more serious I think. Thing is, you play 'deceptive', and you flop K75 or whatever, its going to be difficult to take advantage at some point with aggression. If you c/c flop and c/r turn you're overrepping your hand, even if he doesn't put you on AK when you're really deep. I'm not scared of getting 4bet deep with AK though, on the contrary, I love flatting the 4bet and playing poker. What you will need though is a wide 3betting/moderately wide 4bet flatting range (maybe AA-99, AQs+, the odd suited connector), and then you just need to play poker. Most guys are either too spewy or way too scared when deep in a 4bet pot, so you adjust accordingly. Your strategy sounds like "i don't want to lose too much money on a drawing hand!", but even if they have AA/KK you can in some instances move them off it. If you're playing against the worlds biggest nit who never flats your 3bets with worse and only 4bets with Aces, then yeah maybe flat AK. But this is a big minority of players, you just need to show balls.
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Aug 5, 2009 08:04
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| # ? May 31, 2024 07:24 |
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http://www.pokerhand.org/?4549672 TPTK has its c-bet minraised oop with a 2 flush on the board. Turn completes the flush - ???
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Aug 5, 2009 17:22
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