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Ham
Apr 30, 2009

You're BALD!

Brown Moses posted:

If success in Libya inspires the Iranian protesters he'll be using exactly the same tactics if he wants any chance of staying in power.

Unlike Libya, Ahmadinejad is part of an extensive system of power in Iran and if he departs from power the country can go on as it normally does, so I doubt Iranian power centres are gonna let him use fighter jets and tanks to kill protesters.

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Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

How are things going in Egypt, Ham? I heard the new cabinet annoyed a number of people and further protests are planned for Friday?

Lascivious Sloth
Apr 26, 2008

by sebmojo

Brown Moses posted:

If success in Libya inspires the Iranian protesters he'll be using exactly the same tactics if he wants any chance of staying in power.

The hypocrisy and lies shown from the Iranian government over the last decade is like some big joke everyone there is in on.

Ham posted:

Unlike Libya, Ahmadinejad is part of an extensive system of power in Iran and if he departs from power the country can go on as it normally does, so I doubt Iranian power centres are gonna let him use fighter jets and tanks to kill protesters.

Unlike Libya, Iran has different opposition groups and clerical factions that aren't technically banned, but do not speak up very often. It would be dinner jacket and Khamenei that would be ousted if there was a revolt. Fortunately, Iran has some really good opposition groups with power that could easily act as interim or shake things up. However it's a completely different dynamic in Iran.

Lascivious Sloth fucked around with this message at 11:24 on Feb 23, 2011

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

I'm getting pretty sick of Tweets saying stuff along the lines of "What's up with this Gaddafi guy and all his different names??!?".

Roark
Dec 1, 2009

A moderate man - a violently moderate man.

Brown Moses posted:

If success in Libya inspires the Iranian protesters he'll be using exactly the same tactics if he wants any chance of staying in power.

Ahmadinejad is just the crazy window dressings to the regime. Control of the security services, military, and foreign policy is in the hands of the Supreme Leader. If/when there's a crackdown, it's coming from Khamenei.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Twitter updates:
on Al Jaz, they're saying the mercenaries are Touareg and Mauritanian

Many reports that mercenaries now being flown out of Sabha (south/central Libya) more than from anywhere else

UN Human Rights Council will hold special session on Feb, 25 to discuss the crisis in #Libya following request by #EU. Shame on #ArabLeague

Hungarian #EU Presidency: "It is unacceptable for dictators to shoot their own people." ... #Libya

Report: #Gadhafi ordered sabotage of oil pipelines in #Libya

Our correspondent on #Libya-#Egypt border says many Egyptians coming through just to give media pics/memory cards & go back in

csm141
Jul 19, 2010

i care, i'm listening, i can help you without giving any advice
Pillbug
It was interesting to see the protest movements collide with stuffy run-of-the-mill dictatorships in Egypt and Tunisia but seeing the protest movements collide with a guy as batshit crazy as Qaddafi will be something to behold. Libya will be a hot mess before this thing is over. Anyway, I should probably make the four hundred mile drive I was planning on this weekend sooner rather than later. Can't have the Libyan pipelines exploding and driving up the gas prices, can we?

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

I'm trying to put together a situation map for Libya. Any additional info to help fill in the blanks would be appreciated.

Under the control of anti-Gaddafi forces (Green)
Tobruk Population 300,000
Benghazi Population 670,797
Al-Bayda Population 206,180
Nalut Population 55,000

Currently rebelling (Yellow)
Misurata Population 550,000 (entire district)

Currently getting hosed by mercenaries (Red)
Tripoli Population 1,065,405

Only registered members can see post attachments!

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

First report of a foreign citizen being killed I think:

quote:

Just reported by Reuters news agency, quoting Turkish TV - a Turkish worker has been shot dead near Tripoli.
Gonna guess that wasn't anti-Gaddafi forces. I imagine Turks are going to be very pissed off about that.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Couple of other bits too:

quote:

Al Arabiya/Al Jazeera: Italian foreign minister: Barqah/Cyrenaica (the Eastern half of #Libya) is no longer under the control of Gaddafi

quote:

More from the Guardian's Martin Chulov in Benghazi: "Air force major tells me of witnessing 4k african mercenaries arriving from feb 14 'that's why we turned against them'."

Corny
Feb 18, 2006

i am scared

Lycus posted:

Iranian President Ahmadinejad condemns Libya's use of force on demonstrators.

:ironicat:

Just you wait Ahmadinejad, yours is coming soon!

Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

Roark posted:



Libyan intervention via the UN is a non-starter, as other posters have pointed out. It's just a glorified talking shop on good days, and Russia and China would oppose anything beyond statements of basic condemnation. And isn't Libya still on the Human Rights Council?
Please stop repeating what you've heard on fox news. The most frequent user of veto is the US. China only veto on issues related to china, and Russia rarely use their veto powers. There is no precedent set for China and Russia blocking military action through the UNSC.
And as for the UNHRC, they have several suspect members sitting on it, the reasoning behind it is to get countries such as Lybia to engage in discussion. It's not a "we all have great human rights" club, and was never supposed to be.

Pureauthor
Jul 8, 2010

ASK ME ABOUT KISSING A GHOST
I wonder what Gaddafi is thinking at this exact moment.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Pureauthor posted:

I wonder what Gaddafi is thinking at this exact moment.

"drat whipper snappers and rascals of today, I think I should hold another speech so they'd drop those drugs!" :corsair:

Namarrgon
Dec 23, 2008

Congratulations on not getting fit in 2011!

Pureauthor posted:

I wonder what Gaddafi is thinking at this exact moment.

"After this mess is over we should probably do something about those pink elephants stomping around drugging JFK."

homerlaw
Sep 21, 2008

Plants are the best ergo Sylvari=Best

Pureauthor posted:

I wonder what Gaddafi is thinking at this exact moment.

"I am the state!"

csm141
Jul 19, 2010

i care, i'm listening, i can help you without giving any advice
Pillbug

Corny posted:

:ironicat:

Just you wait Ahmadinejad, yours is coming soon!

I was watching Al Jazeera not too long ago when Ahmadinejad came on with his absurd speech about respecting the people's desires. :ironicat: was the only thing that came to mind.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Based off various reports I've updated the map:

Under the control of anti-Gaddafi forces (Green)
Tobruk Population 300,000
Benghazi Population 670,797
Al-Bayda Population 206,180
Nalut Population 55,000

Currently rebelling (Yellow)
Misurata Population 550,000 (entire district)
Tajoura 14km East of Tripoli, inside the Tripoli District. Population 600,000
Al Kuhms Population 202,000
Az Zawiyah Population 290,993
Gheryan Population 401,000
Bani Walid Populaton 46,350
Yifrin

Currently getting hosed by mercenaries (Red)
Tripoli Population 1,065,405

Pro Gaddafi Strongholds (Black)
Sirt Population 128,100
Sabha Population 130,000

Only registered members can see post attachments!

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

More from Twitter:
residents in #Beghazi report locals are handing back weapons as they now feel safe after security forces withdrew (Reuters)

Gaddafi only has the support of about 5000 soldiers in the army, according to @time ... via @Jerusalem_Post

Just called contact in Musrata who says city is completely in the control of the people, even have command center maintaining order

martinchulov of The Guardian #Libia #Libye: : One ghanan and one african mercenary paraded for me. #libya #feb17. Arrived 9 days ago.

Protesters tell me they see khadafi's speech as a call to civil war

Also the people of Benghazi still protest everyday for what is happening to their brothers in Tripoli

East of #Libya totally liberated &totally peaceful ovr th past 24 hours. Everything east of Ras Lanuf.

the direct oil pipeline between #Libya and Italy - the so-called "Green Stream" has completely "dried up".

Yusuf Al Qardawi, a leading Sunni cleric, has just issued a fatwa on Al Jazeera Arabic, encouraging the assassination of #Gaddafi

As for west, cities liberated include Misurata, Tajoura, Khums, Azzawiya, Gheryan, Bani Walid, Tarhouna, Yfren. Free but not safe

Those fearful of splitting #Libya: Of main cities only Tripoli, Sirt, and Sabha are with #Gaddafi; at least 75% of the country free.

Kenning
Jan 11, 2009

I really want to post goatse. Instead I only have these🍄.



I just want to say I appreciate everybody who's keeping this thread updated. Well done.

fancy stats
Sep 9, 2009

A man's man, wears a lot of denim, tells long stories and has oatmeal saved from this morning.

Lascivious Sloth posted:

NYT has a hilarious article about how insane the family is, taken from cable leaks: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/23/world/africa/23cables.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Gooniest Dictator?

Dieting Hippo
Jan 5, 2006

THIS IS NOT A PROPER DIET FOR A HIPPO

Brown Moses posted:

the direct oil pipeline between #Libya and Italy - the so-called "Green Stream" has completely "dried up".

Uh oh. Gaddafi's loving over one of his closest buddies.

Jamsque
May 31, 2009
Thanks for all the hard work, Brown Moses, it's appreciated.

It seems like civil war is pretty much inevitable at this point. CQ is not stepping down any time soon, but he's lost control of most of the country and most of the armed forces. One has to assume that once they get organised the rebel army units in the east of the country are going to try and liberate Tripoli.

Roark
Dec 1, 2009

A moderate man - a violently moderate man.

Jut posted:

Please stop repeating what you've heard on fox news. The most frequent user of veto is the US. China only veto on issues related to china, and Russia rarely use their veto powers. There is no precedent set for China and Russia blocking military action through the UNSC.

Please stop assuming that everyone who criticizes the UN is a Beck watching right-wing crazy.

Military action? No, they haven't. But the Chinese specifically have blocked action on Darfur, threatened to block the release of reports on North Korea, and, with Russia, have dragged their feet on the sanctions regime towards Iran, and vetoed condemnation of Burma and Zimbabwe in the 2007-08 session.

If past history is any guide, any discussion of a sanctions regime towards Libya (the next likely step) is going to be slower than most in the West would like.

Lascivious Sloth
Apr 26, 2008

by sebmojo

quote:

Yusuf Al Qardawi, a leading Sunni cleric, has just issued a fatwa on Al Jazeera Arabic, encouraging the assassination of #Gaddafi

What the hell? Brown moses can you explain that.

whoflungpoop
Sep 9, 2004

With you and the constellations

Brown Moses posted:

martinchulov of The Guardian #Libia #Libye: : One ghanan and one african mercenary paraded for me. #libya #feb17. Arrived 9 days ago.
I wonder if they were these two fellas :nms: (death, no gore)

Cartouche
Jan 4, 2011

Brown Moses posted:

Based off various reports I've updated the map:

Under the control of anti-Gaddafi forces (Green)
Tobruk Population 300,000
Benghazi Population 670,797
Al-Bayda Population 206,180
Nalut Population 55,000

Currently rebelling (Yellow)
Misurata Population 550,000 (entire district)
Tajoura 14km East of Tripoli, inside the Tripoli District. Population 600,000
Al Kuhms Population 202,000
Az Zawiyah Population 290,993
Gheryan Population 401,000
Bani Walid Populaton 46,350
Yifrin

Currently getting hosed by mercenaries (Red)
Tripoli Population 1,065,405

Pro Gaddafi Strongholds (Black)
Sirt Population 128,100
Sabha Population 130,000



That map is great. You are great.

The evil looking skeleton with horns and a green hat is not great. :cry:


Are the white areas (I am guessing here) just wastelands where few people live, much less know what is going on with the country?

Cartouche fucked around with this message at 13:48 on Feb 23, 2011

Monday Averted
Jun 12, 2010

Pureauthor posted:

I wonder what Gaddafi is thinking at this exact moment.

"Cats, rats! Potato, no beard! I want lamppost waffle, last year! OMNIVORES!"

rare Magic card l00k
Jan 3, 2011


Cartouche posted:

Are the white areas (I am guessing here) just wastelands where few people live, much less know what is going on with the country?

Based on a quick GIS for a population density map, it seems that way, except the two southern-east dark green areas are also low pop, but I guess they're colored in because we actually have an idea of how that area is going.

This density map may not be recent though. There's no date on it, so I might be really wrong. It lines up with the other white areas outside of the north-west tip, though.

Edit: Might as well include it so if it's really off someone who knows Libya better can mention what's wrong.

rare Magic card l00k fucked around with this message at 14:02 on Feb 23, 2011

Xandu
Feb 19, 2006


It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

Brown Moses posted:




Can you upload a blank copy of that map? Thinking about making one for where the various tribal strongholds are.

Roark
Dec 1, 2009

A moderate man - a violently moderate man.

Cartouche posted:

That map is great. You are great.

The evil looking skeleton with horns and a green hat is not great. :cry:


Are the white areas (I am guessing here) just wastelands where few people live, much less know what is going on with the country?

The biggest white area/province is the start of the Sahara. Other than oasis towns and Bedouin, there's not much there.

Cartouche
Jan 4, 2011

Roark posted:

The biggest white area/province is the start of the Sahara. Other than oasis towns and Bedouin, there's not much there.

Hmmm. That gives me an idea of what they should do with Gadda.
Tie him up on a donkey facing backward, put a huge plastic clown head over his head, tie a glass of water on a stick to the donkeys neck just out of it's reach, point it into the desert. He wants to be a martyr? Give him a silly death.
(Thanks go out to one of the Mad Max movies for the idea)

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Lascivious Sloth posted:

What the hell? Brown moses can you explain that.

It's actually a couple of days old, he's an Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood member, more details on it here. People have an annoying habit of Tweeting old news on a very active hashtag.

With regards to the map I forgot to mention the dark green areas are places where control by anti-Gaddafi forces are assumed, but I don't have an specific information about those cities or districts. By all accounts the east of Libya is at the very least no longer controlled by Gaddafi. White areas are where I've seen no information, I'm trying to fill in those gaps as much as possible.

Xandu posted:

Can you upload a blank copy of that map? Thinking about making one for where the various tribal strongholds are.

Only registered members can see post attachments!

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

The Guardian Live Blog just posted their afternoon round up:

quote:

Here's a wrap-up of some of the latest news in from the Associated Press and Reuters news agencies:

• There was heavy gunfire in Tripoli this morning as forces loyal to Muammar Gaddafi opened fire in the streets. This follows Gaddafi's call for his supporters to rise up against rebels yesterday. Italy's foreign minister said he thought that around 1,000 people may have died so far.

• The protesters have reportedly taken control of Misurata – if true this would the first city in the west of the country to fall to the demonstrators, whose support base is mainly in the east. Reuters reported calm in small towns in the east with little sign of police, army or tension.

• Videos posted on Facebook purportedly show anti-government protesters raising the pre-Gaddafi monarchy's flag in Zawiya, on the outskirts of Tripoli.

• Protesters backed by defecting army units are claiming control over almost the entire eastern half of Libya's 1,000-mile Mediterranean coast.

• The Libyan embassy in Austria has condemned "excessive violence against peaceful demonstrators".

• The international criminal court says it cannot prosecute alleged crimes against humanity in Libya without an order from the UN security council or a request from Libya itself. The UN security council has condemned Gaddafi's crackdown.

• Oil prices have soared to their highest level in more than two years.

• Governments around the world were scrambling to get their citizens out of the country. The British government has been criticised for the slowness of its response.

• Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Iranian leader, has predicted that the change sweeping the Middle East will come next to Europe and North America. He criticised Gaddafi's "grotesque" use of force. Iranian police and security forces brutally suppressed protests in 2009.

They've also posted A google map of violence across Libya
An interactive map of Arab and Middle East protests.

More news on cities rebelling against Gaddafi:

quote:

El Pais is talking to a Spanish-based Libyan who is in constant communication with his family in Zliten, a coastal city only 70 miles east of Tripoli. Their source says pro-Gaddafi thugs took to the streets after his speech, causing 30 injuries, but that they were disarmed. The suggestion is that the city is now in the hands of anti-Gaddafi protesters. Also El Pais's correspondent on the Tunisian frontier, Álvaro de Cózar, at Ras Jdir is reporting that they are beginning to see refugees arrive who have been beaten or tortured. Gaddafi's men still control the road to Tripoli, however, making it impossible for journalists to get through.
That's a city of 200,000 people.

Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 14:23 on Feb 23, 2011

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Various tweets, excluding all those assholes who are whining about the rising oil prices. "Wah wah wah, gas is so expensive, wah wah wah":

We heard that a house accomodating refugees in #Libya has been bombed. We don't know if there were casualties.

people in the East are protesting for tripoli and waiting for HUGE celebration nationwide when gaddafi falls and tripoli is free

just got off the phone with commander of the army in Tobruk, who has commanded his forces to join the people. will update soon.

Libyan soldier with gun shot wound just arrived at benghazi's jala hospital shot dead by ghaddafi loyalists.

Men in new cars without plates shooting at people gathering outside. These are #Gaddafi death squads. #Libya

Intensive care unit in benghazi still full of casualties from weekend govt crack down.

Uncle: we have never seen days like this in benghazi, it is calm everyone is family all the tribes it is incredible we are 1

Horrid, panicked video showing yellow hatted mercenaries in #Libya breaking into people's houses

Botswana has become the first African country to cut off diplomatic ties with #Libya over the use of violence against protestors.

Couple of bits from AJE:

quote:

As much as a quarter of Libyan oil output has been shut down, the Reuters news agency reports. Libya produces almost 2 per cent of the world's oil.

quote:

Off the coast of Malta, ships are patrolling following reports of Libyan vessels in the area. It is unclear whether these Libyan vessels are potential defectors, or if they are Gaddafi's navy ships, Al Jazeera's Cal Perry said from Valletta.

A good update from the Guardian about the situation in Benghazi:

quote:

Our correspondent Martin Chulov is one of the first international journalists in Benghazi. He may actually be the first, but we're not able to be absolutely sure about that. He writes:


quote:

Libya's second city, Benghazi, appears to have fallen irretrievably beyond the control of Muammar Gaddafi, with the local military openly defying his regime and monarchy-era flags flying from government buildings.

Defecting troops were pouring into the courtyard of a ransacked police station carrying tonnes of weaponry and ammunition looted from a military armoury to stop it being seized by forces loyal to the Libyan dictator.

Soldiers carried in rockets and heavy weapons, which had been used in an assault on citizens in central Benghazi on Saturday as Gaddafi attempted to keep control of the city. The bloodshed saw well over 200 people killed, doctors said.

He reports clear evidence that foreign mercenaries have been used in the area, and goes on:

quote:

All around Benghazi there were indications that Gaddafi has lost control of the city. The military is no longer operating checkpoints, which are now manned only by a handful of traffic police. Every physical sign of the dictator has been taken down or burned. While there has been no violence in the past two days angry demonstrators are driving through city firing Kalashnikov rifles into the air, demanding Gaddafi cede control and leave the country.

The former Libyan flag, dating from the reign of the monarch ousted by Gaddafi, King Idris, is flying above ransacked government buildings on the waterfront.

We're preparing his full report for publication, and will post a link when it's ready.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Someone on Twitter posted this nearly comical map of the cities controlled by Gaddafi and the protesters.

Only registered members can see post attachments!

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

News from Tripoli:

quote:

Some details from the Associated Press news agency about what has been happening in Tripoli.

Militiamen loyal to Muammar Gaddafi "clamped down" on the city today, AP says, "with the sound of gunfire ringing in the air". The military has also moved heavy forces into the town of Sabratha, west of the capital, to try to put down protesters who have overwhelmed security headquarters and government buildings, a news website close to the government reported.

quote:

Gaddafi's speech yesterday appeared to have brought out a heavy force of supporters and militiamen that largely prevented major protests in the capital Tuesday night or Wednesday. Through the night, gunfire was heard, said one woman who lives near the centre of the city.

"Mercenaries are everywhere with weapons. You can't open a window or door. Snipers hunt people," she said. "We are under siege, at the mercy of a man who is not a Muslim."

During the day Wednesday, more gunfire was heard near Gaddafi's residence, but in many parts of the city of 2 million residents were venturing out to stores, some residents said.

The government sent out text messages urging people to go back to their jobs, aiming to show that life was returning to normal. The residents spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of retaliation.

At the Egyptian border, guards had fled, and local tribal elders have formed local committees to take their place.

A defence committee of local residents was even guarding one of Gaddafi's once highly secretive anti-aircraft missile bases outside the city of Tobruk.

At the moment it seems like Gaddafi is expending all this resources into trying to keep control of Tripoli. Meanwhile more cities become free, more military units defect, and his allies and government deserts him.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Some Tweets from CNN's Ben Weredman about the situation in the northeast:
@bencnn All govt buildings in Derna, #Libya, incl police station, intel hq and police academy torched. (We r no longer there.)

@bencnn: Anti-Gadhafi radio station, voice of free #Libya announces "countdown has begun to end of regime"

@bencnn: Last night intv'd Libyan soldiers captured by anti-Gadhafi forces. Morale clearly low.

@bencnn: Listening to Libya state radio. Libyan friend calls it LIES FM.

cioxx
Jul 14, 2001

In other words he is slowly going into Hitlerbunker mode.

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Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Yeah, it's basically Downfall 2 : Downfall Harder.

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