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I meant ground troops, obviously a no-fly zone would involve the military. It also has the potential to turn into an awful air campaign, but the longer the UN waits to enact a no-fly zone, the less likely that is.
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# ? Feb 28, 2011 04:50 |
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# ? May 21, 2024 14:34 |
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I thought that reports out of Libya had Tripoli's military/civilian international airport falling to the opposition days ago. I'm trying to picture where Ghadaffi'll be able to send planes/helicopters out from...
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# ? Feb 28, 2011 04:59 |
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Libyans have been fairly consistent that they don't want military intervention. Humanitarian aid and supplies is one thing, but any foreign power that tried to move in, even if it were to help them, would likely be resented. Especially since they got this far on their own, and have shown they're willing to go all the way regardless of the cost. e: Found this on NPR: quote:NPR's Lourdes Garcia-Navarro said the vote is being met with a more muted response among anti-government protesters in the liberated east of Libya. They welcomed the U.N. action, but feel the international community didn't move until foreign nationals were evacuated out of the country. Protesters also made clear that they do not welcome foreign intervention in Libya. There was also a letter someone sent to AJE (probably from the national council), that basically said the same thing: aid is welcome, military intervention is not. Narmi fucked around with this message at 05:17 on Feb 28, 2011 |
# ? Feb 28, 2011 05:10 |
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Widespread protests in China could have as widespread economic and political consequences as protests in Saudi Arabia. I I wonder what would happen with North Korea if these protests in China continue? Sivias fucked around with this message at 05:18 on Feb 28, 2011 |
# ? Feb 28, 2011 05:16 |
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Xandu posted:It also has the potential to turn into an awful air campaign, but the longer the UN waits to enact a no-fly zone, the less likely that is. As ridiculous as the joke a while ago about sending two Eurofighters total and doing it "Iron Eagle" style, that's pretty much what an actual air campaign would entail. The Libyan Air Force is horrifically outdated and likely poorly maintained. And hell, most of their "combat aircraft" are outdated trainers that the original operators phased out a decades ago. They're a threat to civilians without any ability to fight back, not so much against an actual military force. Hopefully, the very threat of a no-fly zone is enough to cow Ghaddaffi or the Air Force brass, because actual combat between the EU/US and the Libyans would be an non-photogenic slaughter. I haven't even heard of a bombing run being performed in the last couple of days anyway, likely because the army units that have joined up with rebels have some sort of AA-capability. Slantedfloors fucked around with this message at 05:22 on Feb 28, 2011 |
# ? Feb 28, 2011 05:19 |
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I wonder why the UAE isn't protesting? Dubai seems one of the most unjust and unequal places in the region. It kills me everytime I hear some shallow person go on about how they "totally have no interest in visiting the Middle East, but would love to hang out in Dubai".
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# ? Feb 28, 2011 05:23 |
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Slantedfloors posted:It would be awful for the Libyan Air Force, not so much for the intervening power. If the airforce were willing to fly in the first place. In these last few days there hasn't been reports of concerted air strikes. I think the high profile defections are keeping Khaddafi from trusting giving pilots enough gas to get to Benghazi and back, since that's more than enough to reach Malta or Italy one way. Even with the closer settlements it's a hell of a risk compared to slapping a gun in the hand of a mercenary and telling them to shoot until their paychecks stop coming.
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# ? Feb 28, 2011 05:23 |
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CatchrNdRy posted:I wonder why the UAE isn't protesting? Dubai seems one of the most unjust and unequal places in the region. It kills me everytime I hear some shallow person go on about how they "totally have no interest in visiting the Middle East, but would love to hang out in Dubai". Well, the 20% of the population with citizenship is very well off, and the leadership would react to a reaction to the others (the slave class) like people have always reacted to slave uprisings: kill everyone.
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# ? Feb 28, 2011 05:26 |
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CatchrNdRy posted:I wonder why the UAE isn't protesting? Dubai seems one of the most unjust and unequal places in the region. It kills me everytime I hear some shallow person go on about how they "totally have no interest in visiting the Middle East, but would love to hang out in Dubai". The native populace are pretty content because they get massive benefits packages and have no real worries. And the non-native migrant shitplebe workers would be risking getting slaughtered in the streets by the army if they did anything beyond staring at the ground and remaining silent.
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# ? Feb 28, 2011 05:27 |
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Xandu posted:That would explain why foreign journalists and police were just about the only people to show up. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dzKsqw8u2v4 The report says "about 300 protesters and onlookers." Being that this is Shanghai, I guess I could see 270 of those being onlookers, and 30 protesters. Por ejemplo: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJp0l72v5dY
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# ? Feb 28, 2011 05:41 |
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Patter Song posted:Well, the 20% of the population with citizenship is very well off, and the leadership would react to a reaction to the others (the slave class) like people have always reacted to slave uprisings: kill everyone. My sister is currently teaching in Abu Dhabi and this is pretty much the case there as well. The Emiratis are all pretty drat wealthy, and although there aren't as bad of conditions for foreign manual laborers as in Dubai, they're well controlled.
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# ? Feb 28, 2011 05:51 |
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More from AJE It appears protesters may try and bypass Sirte, although I'm not sure I'd put this at anything more solid than rumor at the moment. quote:1:28am And after the jokes about cellphones earlier quote:1:44am Oh so they already do get Verizon.
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# ? Feb 28, 2011 06:10 |
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I can't help but feel that if there were significant and widespread desire for revolution in China, we'd see that reflected by large-scale protests in Hong Kong. Not that I'm ignorant to the wellspring of discontent, but I think the CCP will be safe as long as they can continue to delivery on promises of economic prosperity and shrink the gap between rich cities and poor rural areas. The time will come when the CCP will face a choice of another Tienanmen Square or significant political reform, but the half-hearted me-too nature of the current protest attempts suggest that time is still a ways off. On North Korea, I think people overestimate the degree to which the North Korean public supposedly adulates Kim Jong Il and the extent of their isolation/ignorance. There have been plenty of reports about North Koreans with smuggled cell phones, portable DVD players, South Korean soaps/Japanese porn, albeit mostly confined to areas along the Chinese border. There is also the natural diffusion of outside knowledge/information from businessmen, traders, and North Koreans able to cross into China on a regular basis, as well as South Korean propaganda balloons. The regime rules by fear and strength rather than upon the consent of the governed, and if the military does not overthrow the Kim dynasty during the transition attempt, the people will eventually overcome their fear and take their freedom by force.
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# ? Feb 28, 2011 06:14 |
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I think the peoples' opinions in North Korea, like everything else there, are impossible to tell because how locked down they are. Like the earlier example of the guy getting his sight fixed immediately thanking Kim's portrait, there is no way of telling if he truly believed that or if he did it because he knew full well what would happen if he didn't. With a foreigner around there was probably plenty of police there before, during, and after. What I'm more curious about what South Korea would do if major (horribly violent) protests broke out in North Korea. Hell, the crazy bastard would probably blame them for the protests and fire whatever he has at Seoul before going down.
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# ? Feb 28, 2011 06:36 |
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Suntory BOSS posted:I can't help but feel that if there were significant and widespread desire for revolution in China, we'd see that reflected by large-scale protests in Hong Kong. I'm no expert on China, but I would suspect the complete opposite- that it would start anywhere but Hong Kong. Hong Kong is far removed from typical China, especially rural China, and it's political system. I do agree it would be a main city though.
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# ? Feb 28, 2011 06:52 |
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Sivias posted:Widespread protests in China could have as widespread economic and political consequences as protests in Saudi Arabia. Egyptian- or Libyan-intensity demonstrations in China would loving wreck the American economy, considering how much poo poo we've outsourced to them.
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# ? Feb 28, 2011 07:28 |
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Young Freud posted:Egyptian- or Libyan-intensity demonstrations in China would loving wreck the American economy, considering how much poo poo we've outsourced to them. I guess we're 'Too Big to Fail' It wouldn't just be America. The whole world would fall into a catastrophic depression. Sounds like the fall of the Mayan empire. They built too big and too fast for their society to sustain. Overpopulation, peasant revolt, and the decline in trade. Their whole society vanished from the records and dispersed into the wilderness. I wonder if the Mayans saw their inevitable collapse coming.
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# ? Feb 28, 2011 07:52 |
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Very interesting report about a mutiny in the Muslim Brotherhood.http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/news/young-muslim-brothers-plan-17-march-revolt-against-group-leadership posted:A group of roughly 2000 young members of the Muslim Brotherhood say they are planning to stage a “revolt” against the group’s authoritative Guidance Bureau and Shura Council on 17 March to demand the dissolution of the two governing bodies.
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# ? Feb 28, 2011 08:10 |
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Sivias posted:Sounds like the fall of the Mayan empire. They built too big and too fast for their society to sustain. Overpopulation, peasant revolt, and the decline in trade. Their whole society vanished from the records and dispersed into the wilderness. The end of the Mayan long-count calender in 2012 is around the corner.
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# ? Feb 28, 2011 08:11 |
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Young Freud posted:Egyptian- or Libyan-intensity demonstrations in China would loving wreck the American economy, considering how much poo poo we've outsourced to them. Bring it on. I dunno about others, but I am more than happy to endure a (more) lovely American/worldwide economy if it is caused by this wonderful, ever-growing wave of revolution we are witnessing. In fact, it'd be pretty loving trivial compared to the sacrifices of each and every one of these people who are willingly risking/giving their lives for the freedom and the futures of others.
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# ? Feb 28, 2011 08:12 |
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Question: Isn't "Shura Council" the most redundant phrase since "PIN Number?"
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# ? Feb 28, 2011 08:12 |
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farraday posted:If the airforce were willing to fly in the first place. In these last few days there hasn't been reports of concerted air strikes. I think the high profile defections are keeping Khaddafi from trusting giving pilots enough gas to get to Benghazi and back, since that's more than enough to reach Malta or Italy one way. Even with the closer settlements it's a hell of a risk compared to slapping a gun in the hand of a mercenary and telling them to shoot until their paychecks stop coming. Yeah, this makes me wonder exactly what went down in the plane where the crew ejected rather than bombed civilians. Even with minimal fuel for a bombing mission, if they hit the external stores jettison button the decrease in weight and aerodynamic drag from letting the bombs and rocket pods fall into the desert would make it possible to reach a neutral airport, saving the new government the cost of a plane. Most charitably, their pre-flight briefing may have included mention of SAM batteries with orders to shoot down deserters. Other possibilities include a unilateral decision by one of the crew leaving the other with a very loud and windy airplane, and possibly an auto-triggered ejection seat - I don't know how they are wired on that plane. Lastly, it could have been mechanical failure followed by a parachute ride where options were considered. In the present situation, I think what is needed is humanitarian relief to Benghazi and the other liberated cities, and a no-fly zone enforced with a mix of the actual few fighters needed and strike aircraft that the mercenaries can hear flying overhead and contemplate exactly how much it means to get paid money that they may not ever spend. Similarly, if recon footage of positions around Sirte were delivered to the rebel alliance, I would not call it outside meddling. Ultimately, there will be accusations that it was a CIA plot even if not a single cup of milk is delivered, so we have to look at realities rather than appearances.
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# ? Feb 28, 2011 08:16 |
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Hypermarket in Sohar, Oman.Patter Song posted:Question: Isn't "Shura Council" the most redundant phrase since "PIN Number?" Consultative council is probably a better translation, but even then, it's still rather redundant.
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# ? Feb 28, 2011 08:26 |
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Hipster_Doofus posted:Bring it on. I dunno about others, but I am more than happy to endure a (more) lovely American/worldwide economy if it is caused by this wonderful, ever-growing wave of revolution we are witnessing. In fact, it'd be pretty loving trivial compared to the sacrifices of each and every one of these people who are willingly risking/giving their lives for the freedom and the futures of others. Unfortunately it's not nearly as simple as this. There is so much complexity and gray area that jumping to such idealistic conclusions is a bit folly. Consider for a moment if the Saudi empire collapse. The fighting between who owns the oil wells would create chaos and ultimately shut down a majority, if not all of the oil exports. As soon as the Oil turns off, this planet will collapse economically. Industry, shipping, air travel, production, food, fuel. We depend on the remaining carbon goo of ancient plants an animals to power our civilization. China is another boat entirely. China produces for the world. They're the fastest growing economy and support the largest population, as well as has incredible stock in the United States. If China's government falls, on whose shoulders does the financial situation fall?
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# ? Feb 28, 2011 08:30 |
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Sivias posted:Unfortunately it's not nearly as simple as this. There is so much complexity and gray area that jumping to such idealistic conclusions is a bit folly. Actually most nations have reserves, and total collapse is also folly. If any power in the Middle East deserves to be completely wrecked to poo poo it's the Kingdom of Saud.
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# ? Feb 28, 2011 08:32 |
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Hipster_Doofus posted:Bring it on. I dunno about others, but I am more than happy to endure a (more) lovely American/worldwide economy if it is caused by this wonderful, ever-growing wave of revolution we are witnessing. In fact, it'd be pretty loving trivial compared to the sacrifices of each and every one of these people who are willingly risking/giving their lives for the freedom and the futures of others. Actually, this is how I view it: Secretary: Boss, I've got some bad news! Big Boss: What is it? Secretary: Oil prices have increased up out distribution costs by 300%! Big Boss: That's okay. We'll just jack up our prices to keep our profit margins. Secretary: But that's not all of it. The workers in China are out protesting for higher wages and equality! The sweatshops are on fire or have been taken over by the workers! The entire stock has been looted! Big Boss: That's horrible. Secretary: Even if the situation stabilizes, we're looking at an enormous cost. We can never go back to the way we do business in China. It'll be like having to pay the equivalent for minimum wage to do business over there from now on. That and benefits. And overseas distribution costs due to increased oil prices. Big Boss: Well, because of the increased cost of distribution and manufacturing, I guess we'll have no choice but to return back to the United States. Luckily, we've weakened the unions enough that we can still make a profit. Secretary: Well, sir, about that... Big Boss:
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# ? Feb 28, 2011 08:33 |
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Nonsense posted:Actually most nations have reserves, and total collapse is also folly. If any power in the Middle East deserves to be completely wrecked to poo poo it's the Kingdom of Saud. The reason they're called 'reserves' is not because they last forever. It's estimated that America has 21,000,000,000 (billion) barrels of oil in reserve. Cars alone burn roughly 20,000,000 (million) barrels PER DAY. 20 Billion / 20 million = 1000 days. or about 4 years. Do you think the flow of oil will return to the state it's at within 4 years? Better be faster than that, because that's just cars. On top of that, every day the oil flow doesn't return, the cost goes up. Look back to the 70's oil crisis. We tapped into the reserves and you saw car's waiting in line for 15 hours or more. People everywhere pushing their cars around. Sivias fucked around with this message at 08:52 on Feb 28, 2011 |
# ? Feb 28, 2011 08:43 |
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MothraAttack posted:Any Arabic speakers that can translate this more thoroughly? Video purports to show chemical weapons cache seized by revolutionaries: I wonder how they concluded that they're chemical weapons. The canisters clearly say "B.A.E. EJECTION SEAT PRIMARY CARTRIDGE" Xandu posted:Not a terrible turnout in Lebanon today considering the rain. I'm not really sure where they're trying to go with this. All I've seen is a vague goal of ending sectarianism.
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# ? Feb 28, 2011 08:46 |
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Sivias posted:I wonder what would happen with North Korea if these protests in China continue? People have got to get the idea of something like this happening in NK out of their heads. It's just not going to happen. For reference, here's what's been happening in Beijing: "[url posted:https://"http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12593328[/url]"] This is what China does when the world is not just watching but recording it all on videotape. What do you think they get up to behind closed doors? There are few regimes in the world more brutal than China's but NK's is one of them. I'm not going to repeat all of the reasons why protests in NK won't happen and would be damaging if they did, because the information is literally two pages back. If you don't want to go hunting then bring up the list of my posts to see part of it. On the idea of violent overthrow of the regime, you do realise that NK has one of the largest standing armies in the world right? Not one of the largest compared to it's population - simply one of the largest armies on the planet. They may be poorly equipped but you don't need much to stop unarmed half-starving peasants. rolleyes fucked around with this message at 09:02 on Feb 28, 2011 |
# ? Feb 28, 2011 08:58 |
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Sivias posted:The reason they're called 'reserves' is not because they last forever. Maybe it would force us to be oil free?
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# ? Feb 28, 2011 09:03 |
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sweeptheleg posted:Maybe it would force us to be oil free? Single reason our population, production, economy is at the level it's at is entirely due to Oil. We consume 1/4th of the worlds oil and we have something like 5% of the population. There is no way for the United States to be "oil free". It just simply isn't possible. Self Sustainability and 'green only' energy is a dream, and a dumb one. It costs something like 7 gallons of oil per tire. Solar energy isn't going to make 290 million tires. Sivias fucked around with this message at 09:12 on Feb 28, 2011 |
# ? Feb 28, 2011 09:10 |
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Sivias posted:The reason they're called 'reserves' is not because they last forever. e. That's not to say it wouldn't be a massive fuckup and cars and transport in general (including food transport ) would still be hosed. But it's not a doomsday scenario e2. Actually it is a doomsday scenario.
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# ? Feb 28, 2011 09:14 |
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Young Freud posted:Egyptian- or Libyan-intensity demonstrations in China would loving wreck the American economy, considering how much poo poo we've outsourced to them.
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# ? Feb 28, 2011 09:16 |
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quadratic posted:
There's not a clear set of goals, but sectarianism is rather all-encompassing in Lebanon and they want an end to the whole system. Here's the two really big ones that always get brought up, but there's other vague ones as well. -Parliamentary seats wouldn't be distributed along sectarian lines. Currently christians, shia, and sunni are all guaranteed a certain amount of seats to regulate the balance of power. This leads to sects with only one real political party (christians are a bit of an exception) and a completely dysfunctional government. -Civil marriage and a reformed inheritance law. Currently civil marriage doesn't exist in Lebanon (have to travel abroad to Cyprus if you want to marry someone from another sect) and you can't pass property to someone from another sect. Someone even introduced a bill that would prohibit christians from selling property to muslims. A rough google translation from the organizer of the protest. http://trella.org/2562 posted:• against the sectarian system and its symbols, warlords and factions
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# ? Feb 28, 2011 09:18 |
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Xandu posted:-Parliamentary seats wouldn't be distributed along sectarian lines. Currently christians, shia, and sunni are all guaranteed a certain amount of seats to regulate the balance of power. This leads to sects with only one real political party (christians are a bit of an exception) and a completely dysfunctional government.
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# ? Feb 28, 2011 09:29 |
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sweeptheleg posted:Maybe it would force us to be oil free?
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# ? Feb 28, 2011 09:41 |
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Maps Guardian map of cities controlled in Libya For monitoring Twitter cioxx posted:This is the best site for monitoring twitter, for those who don't know. For monitoring aircraft unable to land at Tripoli Monkeytime posted:Here's an interesting site that lets you monitor global air traffic: Live Blogs BBC Guardian AJE Guardian news round up: quote:Good morning and welcome to the Guardian's continued coverage of the uprising in Libya and events elsewhere in North Africa and the Middle East. Other news quote:We hear that one of Libya's two main mobile phone providers has been hacked - by it's own employees. They've been topping up everyone's credit to ensure no-one runs out, a contact tells our correspondent in Benghazi. Unfortunately, it doesn' t help much - as network coverage is pretty poor and intermittent, he tells us. quote:We're getting reports that the country's second most important military airport, not far from Benghazi, has fallen to the protesters. quote:Ibrahim Sharquieh, deputy director of the Brookings Doha Centre, said Gaddafi does not appear to have lost all of his control in the capital. quote:The Libyan ambassador to South Africa has became the latest foreign envoy to turn his back on Gaddafi and urge the dictator to stand down, according to the Associated Press. Abdalla Alzubedi said: quote:Col Gaddafi's isolation grows as French Prime Minister Francois Fillon announces they are sending two planeloads of medical aid to opposition groups in Libya, and have not ruled out backing a Nato no-fly zone over the country.
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# ? Feb 28, 2011 10:13 |
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The only thing a NATO No-fly zone is going to accomplish is that Gaddafi's pilots are going to get into the air, and immediately punch-out over the ocean. I think most of them remember what happened to Saddam's pilots when they refused to take off against American F-15s.
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# ? Feb 28, 2011 10:23 |
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MA-Horus posted:The only thing a NATO No-fly zone is going to accomplish is that Gaddafi's pilots are going to get into the air, and immediately punch-out over the ocean. I think most of them remember what happened to Saddam's pilots when they refused to take off against American F-15s. What do you mean by 'punch-out'? Do you mean defect?
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# ? Feb 28, 2011 10:29 |
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# ? May 21, 2024 14:34 |
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boogs posted:What do you mean by 'punch-out'? Do you mean defect?
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# ? Feb 28, 2011 10:30 |