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TheBalor posted:Fixed my post. I'm still interested in an answer to the question, though. If we can switch away from fossil fuels on our power-generation needs, might we be able to use synthetic oil and remaining reserves to stretch out our supply for a good deal longer? Or is the lion's share of oil used in these industrial applications? What you have to understand is it really isn't about resource, but consumption. The United States has 5% of the population and we use 1/4th of the world's energy. There simply is no resource so prolific to sustain that level of consumption of energy.
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Mar 1, 2011 08:35
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RoofieMyselfForFun posted:In grammar school I got Belarus as my country of interest to do a social studies project on. Needless to say I was among the most boring of all the subjects... so if Belarus does protest, it will more than likely be one of the most uneventful we've seen yet Oh come on, don't be like that, it's a ton of fun! (Although I kind of agree - even their dictator is a Doctor Phil lookalike when other countries go for the Doctor Evil or Doctor No look.)
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Mar 1, 2011 08:57
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For monitoring Twittercioxx posted:This is the best site for monitoring twitter, for those who don't know. For monitoring aircraft unable to land at Tripoli Monkeytime posted:Here's an interesting site that lets you monitor global air traffic: Live Blogs BBC Guardian AJE Guardian morning round up quote:Good morning and welcome to the Guardian's Libya live blog, where we'll also be keeping you up to date with protests across the region. Another defection: quote:Latest from Libya, where military officers are defecting from Gaddafi's side to join the growing opposition: Zawayi is still free, despite Gaddafi's best efforts: quote:Witnesses tell the Associated Press that forces loyal to Col Gaddafi have tried but failed to retake the rebel-held town closest to the capital, Tripoli. They say government troops, supported by tanks and anti-aircraft guns, attacked from several directions on Monday night, but that they were fought off after six hours. "We will not give up Zawiya at any price," one witness said. Couple of bits from Martin Chulov of the Guardian's Twitter: quote:Benghazi rebels say they'd welcome turkish mil force to save them from Ghaddafi's jets. Strong no to US role though quote:Memories still fresh from when US bombers destroyed Benghazi suburbs going after Ghaddafi 25 years ago. quote:Rebel military leaders told me tonight they haven't enough arms and would accept foreign air force help. From Ben Wereman's Twitter: quote:Anti-Qaddafi general reveals plan to take control of west: "We'll unite the people, form a combat unit and liberate it, God willing." There's also a story in Arabic floating about saying that the US and UK are trying to secure a safe exit for Gaddafi, to avoid further bloodshed I assume. Other bits from Twitter: quote:Sky News has reported that the UK planning use of Typhoons based in Akrtiri #Cyprus to enforce #Libya no-fly zone Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 09:55 on Mar 1, 2011 |
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Mar 1, 2011 09:46
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Saudi Arabia produces roughly 10% of the world's oil. Cutting it off abruptly would probably at least double the price of oil worldwide. Which would have immediate consequences, but in the short term, those consequences would largely fall on poor people in poor countries. The price of food would go up a lot, imported goods costs would rise, and so on. The US would tap its strategic oil reserve to help keep domestic supply from crashing. A long-term loss of 10% of production (and by long term, I mean 6 months or more) would be disastrous. However, it seems extremely unlikely to me. Here's a fact: Saudi Arabia produces basically nothing but oil. Without oil exports, nobody in Saudi Arabia will eat. A putative revolution would have to either succeed, or fail, long before six months had elapsed. Unless someone went all Saddam Hussein and set all the wells on fire or something, a revolution would either succeed and quickly start exporting oil again (so the people don't starve), or fail and see oil exports start up again (so the rich can stay rich). e. And setting oil wells on fire makes no sense for either side in a revolutionary struggle. Hussain set wells in Kuwait on fire as his forces retreated, but he didn't set Iraqi wells on fire. As long as he had hope of staying in power in Iraq, he needed the oil infrastructure intact - and by the time it was clearly over for him, he no longer had the power to do anything to them. Some folks have suggested that the US and perhaps many other countries would intervene militarily in Saudi Arabia to prevent, or help crush, a revolt. I'm not so sure. I'd guess that they'd intervene mainly to ensure no harm comes to the oil exporting infrastructure. It would be very difficult, politically, for any American leadership seen to be crushing democracy-seeking poor people in foreign lands. Sure, we've done it in the past, but not since CNN embedded reporters, much less Youtube broadcasting from anyone's cell phone. American leaders can and have justified military action to fight "terrorists", but it'd be difficult to label even highly-religious sectarian fighters in Saudi Arabia as being a terrorist threat. And even if we did, the first places the US commandos would secure, is the oil infrastructure. So a crisis in Saudi Arabia could put us back into recession, and would probably kill a million or so poor people in places like bangladesh and sub-saharan africa, and perhaps destabilize a few other countries with no oil reserves and already-shaky regimes... but I have a hard time picturing it triggering a global collapse of civilization. More importantly, I think my main point is that revolutions in countries that cannot feed themselves must succeed, or fail, in a timescale on the order of weeks, not months. Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 09:59 on Mar 1, 2011 |
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Mar 1, 2011 09:53
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If a no-fly zone is set up Libya still has a lot of Scud missiles Ghaddafi can launch at the rebel cities.
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Mar 1, 2011 10:27
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Sounds like Zawiyah is now under seige:quote:An unnamed eyewitness in Zawiyah, 30 miles from the capital, just told al-Jazeera English that Gaddafi forces are blocking food deliveries into the city. It also sounds like from Twitter and other reports that the two bombs that were dropped in Benghazi yesterday were meant for arms depots, but both targets were missed, maybe on purpose. Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 11:03 on Mar 1, 2011 |
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Mar 1, 2011 10:28
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Updates from a couple of cities: Tripoli quote:The BBC's Jose Tembe in Maputo, Mozambique, has spoken to a student who was at university in Tripoli. Mohamed Suel Temah said the Libyan government insisted that people carry on as usual and that nothing was happening. However, he said, panic was spreading and people did not dare leave their houses. "The authorities send messages to everyone to go out and work normally, go to school normally. But the panic was inside each and everyone because the teachers didn't come, and as I could see on my way from the university to the airport, everything was just cool, alright," he says. Misrata quote:Meanwhile, opposition forces holding the town of Misrata, east of Tripoli, are battling forces loyal to Col Gaddafi. One resident, Salah, a lawyer, told the BBC World Service that the opposition was determined to win. "We're still fighting Gaddafi's powers. We got some weapons from his people when we were fighting them before, and we are using them against him now," he said. "His rule will end, by any means." Zawiya quote:Last night there were clashes in the town of Zawiya, west of the capital. A resident told the BBC that there were about 200 militiamen with two tanks, and snipers on the roof of a hotel. He said they were dressed in blue uniforms. An opposition resident dropped a home-made bomb from a roof, and the militiamen scattered. The bodies of eight pro-government troops were later found, but the opposition suffered no fatalities, he added. quote:The Zawiya resident said he had this message for Col Gaddafi: "We're not here for power, authority or money. We are here for the cause of freedom and the price we are willing to pay is with our own blood. In the words of Omar al-Mukthar - it's victory or death." Mukhtar led resistance to the Italian occupation in the early 20th Century. He was hanged in 1931.
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Mar 1, 2011 12:03
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Leperflesh posted:Unless someone went all Saddam Hussein and set all the wells on fire or something...And setting oil wells on fire makes no sense for either side in a revolutionary struggle... If there were a revolt in Saudi Arabia (and I'm not at all convinced there will be), I'd bet dollars to donuts that Al Qaeda would take advantage of the chaos to make an attempt upon the Saudi oil infrastructure. They've tried before, and it would be the exact sort of major, world-shaking headline grab attack they desperately need to stay relevant.
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Mar 1, 2011 13:06
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Afternoon update from the Guardian:quote:• Gaddafi is massing forces near to the Tunisian border, with residents fearful of a attack, according to reports. Al-Arabiya said forces were preparing an attack to regain control of Nalut, some 60 km (38 miles) from the border. The prospect of western powers deploying military force against Muammar Gaddafi's regime has moved closer, with the US having deployed naval and air force units around Libya. This is a good article explaining why even though the protest in Saudi Arabia may appear minor to us they are actually pretty significant for Saudi Arabia.
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Mar 1, 2011 14:55
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quote:Thousands of protesters have take to the streets in Yemen once more, while, the country's president Ali Abdullah Saleh has launched an angry attack on Barack Obama, asking whether the US president thinks he is "president of the world". Speaking at Sana'a University, where pro-democracy protests have been staged over the last few weeks, the 68-year-old said: "Every day we hear a statement from Obama saying 'Egypt you can't do this, Tunisia don't do that'." He added, in a direct statement to Obama: "What do you have to do with Egypt? Or with Oman? ... Are you president of the United States, or president of the world?" Of the many faults I could lay at Mr. Obama's feet, acting like he's 'president of the world', at least in regards to the current conflict, is not one of them.
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Mar 1, 2011 14:59
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Apology posted:Belaruuuuus! You know, over the weekend plane spotters reported a small Libyan jet flying Tripoli to Vienna to Minsk and back to Tripoli. Wonder what relation, if any, Lukashenko has with Gaddafi at this point.
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Mar 1, 2011 15:04
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CeeJee posted:If a no-fly zone is set up Libya still has a lot of Scud missiles Ghaddafi can launch at the rebel cities. Scud missles are ridiculously inaccurate and ineffective. Choosing between them and the Air Force is a no-brainer.
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Mar 1, 2011 15:15
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quote:Staff Brig Gen Mansour Mohammed Abu Hajar, head of the Libyan army's armoured vehicles and infantry division in Benghazi, has told al-Arabiya that he and the division's personnel have joined the rebels. "[We] announce our joining of this blessed revolution, which we hope God Almighty will grant success and victory. We denounce the killing and the extermination of defenceless youths by the security brigades and hired mercenaries. I and all the division's personnel put ourselves at the disposal of this glorious revolution," he says. I'm wondering what sort of firepower that brings to the rebels. Anyone have an idea of how many people would be in a Libyan army division?
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Mar 1, 2011 15:25
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Suntory BOSS posted:If there were a revolt in Saudi Arabia (and I'm not at all convinced there will be), I'd bet dollars to donuts that Al Qaeda would take advantage of the chaos to make an attempt upon the Saudi oil infrastructure. They've tried before, and it would be the exact sort of major, world-shaking headline grab attack they desperately need to stay relevant. Not sure if you caught this article yesterday, but it goes along with them trying to stay relevant : http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/28/world/middleeast/28qaeda.html?_r=1
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Mar 1, 2011 15:38
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Brown Moses posted:I'm wondering what sort of firepower that brings to the rebels. Anyone have an idea of how many people would be in a Libyan army division? The main thing probably isn't even the addational weaponry or the solders but the increasing isolation this cause those who still are holding out loyal to the regime. The more army personal who switch sides the more peaceful the revolution will be. While it looks like here is still likely some large fighting and large loss of life to come before the revolution is through, hopefully with a few more announcements like this, that will be minimised.
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Mar 1, 2011 15:41
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When I try explaining why these protests are so important, I don't think I get across its full import. Here's an article that focuses on one great aspect of what's happening.quote:The same mainstream Western media that habitually conveys a picture of a region peopled almost exclusively by enraged, bearded terrorist fanatics who "hate our freedom" has begun to show images of ordinary people peacefully making eminently reasonable demands for freedom, dignity, social justice, accountability, the rule of law, and democracy. Arab youth at the end of the day have been shown to have hopes and ideals not that different from those of the young people who helped bring about democratic transitions in Eastern Europe, Latin America, and South, Southeast, and East Asia. http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/02/24/reflections_on_the_revolutions_in_tunisia_and_egypt And this is late and someone has already probably linked it, but here's a remx of (DJ) Ghaddafi's latest crazy rant. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cBY-0n4esNY EDIT: That song is all over the revolution facebooks (Tunisia, etc). EDIT 2: It was made by an Israeli. Shageletic fucked around with this message at 15:54 on Mar 1, 2011 |
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Mar 1, 2011 15:52
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Sounds like all Gaddafi has left are random, poorly skilled people he's thrown money and guns at. They suck at recapturing anything. I'm just surprised they don't desert him but maybe they're just playing him like a fool to get paid a bunch of times and mostly run around shooting at the air.
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Mar 1, 2011 15:55
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Shageletic posted:EDIT: That song is all over the revolution facebooks (Tunisia, etc). Links to the revolution pages? Are there dozens of them or a few "official" ones?
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Mar 1, 2011 16:07
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Slantedfloors posted:Scud missles are ridiculously inaccurate and ineffective. Choosing between them and the Air Force is a no-brainer. Libya has less than 500 Scud-B's. It has a payload of 985kg, which is quite a lot, but given the inaccuracy (it has a 50% chance of hitting within a radius of 450m from target) it's not terribly effective even under optimal conditions. Besides, their range is rather short overall in a country as large as Libya. People may genuinely think that Scud is some kind of intercontinental missile, but it's not. During the Kuwait war they made the headlines because Saddam Hussein was firing them to Saudi Arabia and Israel, but even though Iraq does not share a border with Israel, the distance is less than 300km which is Scud-B's maximum range. The distance from Tripoli to Sirte is more than that. It may surprise many how much larger North Africa (and countries like Libya or Algeria) is than Middle East. Not that Scud is totally worthless, but in Libya, if can reach a city with Scuds, then you probably can reach it with ordinary artillery, too.
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Mar 1, 2011 16:08
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Spiky Ooze posted:Sounds like all Gaddafi has left are random, poorly skilled people he's thrown money and guns at. They suck at recapturing anything. I'm just surprised they don't desert him but maybe they're just playing him like a fool to get paid a bunch of times and mostly run around shooting at the air. He still has the Khamis Brigade, which is his trump card. From all accounts it will stick with him till the bitter end. wiki posted:The Khamis Brigade is a special forces brigade of the military of Libya which is loyal to Muammar Gaddafi, the leader of leader of Libya since 1969. Led by Gaddafi's youngest son Khamis Gaddafi, the 32nd Brigade had been called "the most well-trained and well-equipped force in the Libyan military" and "the most important military and security elements of the regime" in leaked U.S. memos.
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Mar 1, 2011 16:11
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Narmi posted:He still has the Khamis Brigade, which is his trump card. From all accounts it will stick with him till the bitter end. Slantedfloors fucked around with this message at 16:23 on Mar 1, 2011 |
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Mar 1, 2011 16:13
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New map from the BBC: source I guess that Misrata and Zawuya are firmly in the hands of the people by now, especially with the new defections that took place. Hopefully Janzou and Zuara get a blue square when the map is updated.
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Mar 1, 2011 16:20
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Assuming he still has the Amazonian Guard, too.
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Mar 1, 2011 16:22
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The SARS Volta posted:Assuming he still has the Amazonian Guard, too. I got the sense that they were downsized a while ago. He started out with dozens of them, and then over time you'd only see the same half dozen girls over and over Steve Yun fucked around with this message at 16:33 on Mar 1, 2011 |
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Mar 1, 2011 16:31
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It's been noted that a lot of people in the State TV pro-Gaddafi demonstrations are the same, even though they are supposed to be taking place in different locations, meaning either it's the same locations, or they are being bused about.
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Mar 1, 2011 16:35
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Slantedfloors posted:Please tell me "Khamis" is something like "Victory" in Arabic, and that naming the brigade after him isn't as retarded as it sounds. My first google response told me it means 'armed forces'. So it could still be either way.
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Mar 1, 2011 16:36
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Saif is deluded as his father:quote:Muammar Gaddafi's son, Saif, has said David Cameron has dealt with the situation in Libya "like a joke".
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Mar 1, 2011 16:41
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breaklaw posted:Links to the revolution pages? Are there dozens of them or a few "official" ones? Dozens upon dozens of them, in Arabic, French, etc (like this one here http://www.facebook.com/pages/Students-support-Tunisian-uprising-victory-to-the-revolution/149064825148333 or here http://www.facebook.com/pages/Yasmin-Revolution-Do-it-Visit-Tunisia-/142579682468491). Very diffuse and decentralized. I imagine that the original facebook pages e calling for marches are still out there (maybe for Egypt, search by the term the April 4th movement).
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Mar 1, 2011 16:41
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Slantedfloors posted:Please tell me "Khamis" is something like "Victory" in Arabic, and that naming the brigade after him isn't as retarded as it sounds. "Khamis" is "Thursday" in Arabic.
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Mar 1, 2011 17:04
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Roark posted:"Khamis" is "Thursday" in Arabic.
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Mar 1, 2011 17:05
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Slantedfloors posted:He named his kid "Thursday", and then gave him control of the "Thursday" Army Brigade. That's so loving stupid I'm getting mad just thinking about it. He named his other kids stuff like 'Sword of Islam' and 'Sword of Arabs' so it's not like he's a stranger to... strange names.
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Mar 1, 2011 17:07
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QuentinCompson posted:He named his other kids stuff like 'Sword of Islam' and 'Sword of Arabs' so it's not like he's a stranger to... strange names. That just makes it worse. That means he gave a couple of his kids really flowery and (an attempt at) powerful names and then named one "Thursday".
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Mar 1, 2011 17:09
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Saif is a loopy oval office:quote:Col Gaddafi's son, Saif al-Islam, has been speaking to Sky News, where he challenged journalists and Western powers to find evidence that the regime has been attacking its own people.
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Mar 1, 2011 17:10
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QuentinCompson posted:He named his other kids stuff like 'Sword of Islam' and 'Sword of Arabs' so it's not like he's a stranger to... strange names. It makes you wonder what he's named his own 'sword'. 
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Mar 1, 2011 17:13
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Brown Moses posted:Saif is a loopy oval office: You can argue all day about short-form birth certificates but there's a video of a motherfucker taping a video and getting shot...
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Mar 1, 2011 17:23
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Nenonen posted:It makes you wonder what he's named his own 'sword'. "Dream of Gaddafi" Meaning he dreams of the day he can find it, assuming it still exists.
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Mar 1, 2011 17:24
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There is an interview on AL-J right now that is amazing. It's with the Italian Foreign Minister and the anchor is ruthlessly grilling him about Berlesconi's refusal to condemn the actions of CQ and the Foreign Minister laughed when the anchor asked why Silvio said that he wouldn't call CQ because "he didn't want to disturb him". You could tell that the Foreign Mnister was ready to crack up laughing at the craziness of his own leader, so he just gave a slight laugh and big grin and changed the subject. Then he got nailed to the wall on the issue of refugee's from Libya. Now he's getting drilled on how Italy is balking at sanctions because it's going to hurt their economic ties with the CQ regime. I've said it before, but it bears repeating: I loving love AL-J. The sum up his entire appearance: "Italy is cool, Libya is for Libyans, we talk about things with the EU and the US, we do a lot of things that I refuse to tell you about, but seriously guys let's just let someone else handle this one - HEY LOOK OVER THERE! It's the EU! I bet they have more money than us!" Furious Mittens fucked around with this message at 17:57 on Mar 1, 2011 |
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Mar 1, 2011 17:41
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Nenonen posted:It would be a seriously sweet, ecstatic thing if this thing spread also to Belarus. Why? Lukashenko has a wide base of support, I don't see it happening.
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Mar 1, 2011 17:55
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Mnoba posted:Not sure if you caught this article yesterday, but it goes along with them trying to stay relevant : It makes a lot of sense really; Al Qaeda may claim that they hate all the puppet dictators put in place by the US, but the truth is that they need them. If the people aren't constantly being crushed under the thumb of an oppressive regime, they won't have the impotent, aimless anger that people like Al Qaeda exploit to push their own agenda. Terrorists do not benefit from a world in which everyone is empowered.
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Mar 1, 2011 18:31
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If for no other reason, that's why the US/West can't get involved in these conflicts. Once you let people empower themselves instead of treating them like misguided primitive children, you allow for a lot more dialogue, exchange of ideas, and less opportunities for extremists to peddle their messages that are dependent on people feeling helpless.
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Mar 1, 2011 19:09
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