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So, what with people fighting in the streets in towns across the country, this would now be considered civil war wouldn't it? Or does it not qualify because only one side is an organized military force while the other is just a bunch of fed-up civilians who all just happen to have military experience (thanks, conscription!)
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Mar 2, 2011 15:01
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Yeah, it's a civil war now, especially seeing military units are joining the opposition. More from Brega: quote:An al-Jazeera correspondent just said a bomb was dropped about 60m from where he is outside Brega. He said there are around 300 government fighters in the town but they are surrounded. quote:We're hearing from our colleagues at Al Jazeera Arabic that four people have been killed and ten injured in an air raid on the town of Brega. Other bombings being reported: quote:Airstrikes also reported in city of Ajdabiya, just northeast of Brega, Casualty count not yet known. Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 15:09 on Mar 2, 2011 |
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Mar 2, 2011 15:05
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Apology posted:Is anyone surprised that the French are being dicks about things?
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Mar 2, 2011 15:11
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Toplowtech posted:Alain Juppé is the new French Minister of Foreign and European Affairs. He was also Minister of Foreign and European Affairs from 1993 to 1995 (the Rwandan Genocide happened in 1994). The Italians were dragging their feet yesterday and playing coy about the influx of refugees, some being turned away. Berlusconi loves CQ and has been very hesitant to take a hard stance against him. The Italian Foreign Minister was on Al-J yesterday and he did everything but just come out and say "someone else handle this". With the news of renewed air strikes against rebel fighters, I think we'll see swift action from the UN on implementing a No-Fly Zone. Additionally, I believe that military action (mostly air strikes) are probably going to get a lot more discussed and considered in light of this. That's not to say anything about clandestine operations that might be taking place inside Libya. I think we're at the point where this crosses completely over to civil war territory and CQ has demonstrated that he's not going down without a fight. I'm of the mind that it's going to get really bad sooner rather than later.
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Mar 2, 2011 15:17
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The ICC has just announced they are opening an investigation into abuses in Libya.
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Mar 2, 2011 15:24
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Brown Moses posted:The ICC has just announced they are opening an investigation into abuses in Libya. They have an opportunity to really legitimize themselves in the eyes of the world.
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Mar 2, 2011 15:27
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More news from Brega and Abjabiya:quote:The BBC's John Simpson in Adjabiya says: "Fighting still seems to be going on in Brega, down the road from here. And people in Adjabiya itself are expecting an attack directly after Brega has fallen. Adjabiya's defences are pretty skimpy - three elderly Russian tanks, plus three mobile anti-aircraft guns, which failed to shoot down a Russian-made jet which flew low over the huge arms dump on the edge of town twice this morning and dropped a bomb each time. The plane failed both times to hit the ammunition stores which were its target." quote:Al Jazeera's Tony Birtley was just on the phone with us - 10km away from the oil-rich town of Brega. As we spoke, he was watching a Libyan airforce jet bombing the area.
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Mar 2, 2011 15:29
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The Guardian have just posted an interactive map of today's attacks.
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Mar 2, 2011 15:40
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Muammar Gaddafi posted:In America, France, and everywhere, if people attacked military stores and tried to steal weapons, they will shoot them. I don't know about France or everywhere, but I'm pretty sure in America it's illegal to shoot someone unless they're about to kill you, or in this example, had successfully stolen the weapons, armed them, and were pointing them at you.
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Mar 2, 2011 16:10
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Pleads posted:So, what with people fighting in the streets in towns across the country, this would now be considered civil war wouldn't it? Or does it not qualify because only one side is an organized military force while the other is just a bunch of fed-up civilians who all just happen to have military experience (thanks, conscription!) No no it's only a civil war after a few decades have passed and it's written down in history books. Right now it's still a
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Mar 2, 2011 16:12
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dpbjinc posted:I don't know about France or everywhere, but I'm pretty sure in America it's illegal to shoot someone unless they're about to kill you, or in this example, had successfully stolen the weapons, armed them, and were pointing them at you. For police, yes, but a lot of military installations have "WE WILL SHOOT TO KILL" warnings on the high security areas. You don't gently caress around if someone is trying to steal military-grade weaponry. That said, if someone was trying to break into a military base in the US, they probably wouldn't even get that far, and they will try to subdue and arrest an intruder rather than just shooting them if the person isn't presenting a direct lethal threat.
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Mar 2, 2011 16:12
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dpbjinc posted:I don't know about France or everywhere, but I'm pretty sure in America it's illegal to shoot someone unless they're about to kill you, or in this example, had successfully stolen the weapons, armed them, and were pointing them at you. If you tried to go near a weapons store on an American military base as a civilian who wasn't authorized to be on base, tens of people would shoot you dead before you even got close. edit: for example, in Albuquerque, if you drive too far on Gibson and get to the Kirtland gate and your car isn't registered, you will be either detained or turned away at gunpoint by people who are not loving around. MrQwerty fucked around with this message at 16:28 on Mar 2, 2011 |
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Mar 2, 2011 16:25
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dpbjinc posted:I don't know about France or everywhere, but I'm pretty sure in America it's illegal to shoot someone unless they're about to kill you, or in this example, had successfully stolen the weapons, armed them, and were pointing them at you. The United States has a long and storied history of using violent force to quell uprisings at the local, state and federal level. If you attack a US military installation you will be shot dead, if you do it by force of numbers, they will escalate the response.
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Mar 2, 2011 16:26
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MrQwerty posted:If you tried to go near a weapons store on an American military base as a civilian who wasn't authorized to be on base, tens of people would shoot you dead before you even got close. Maybe this is true at larger bases, but the bases for the national guard in Kentucky small towns with all kinds of poo poo like mark19's. My old roommate was Armory Chief. When they were deployed to Abu Gharib prison. The only person there was him and a couple people who had joined after the deployment. Only think to stop you from 1000 m16 with m203 is a chain link fence. Maybe they guard the expensive poo poo, but here in Kentucky it is just sitting there for the taking. I have been off roading in a hummer there many times. No one there to even know.
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Mar 2, 2011 16:33
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Rkelly posted:Maybe this is true at larger bases, but the bases for the national guard in Kentucky small towns with all kinds of poo poo like mark19's. My old roommate was Armory Chief. When they were deployed to Abu Gharib prison. The only person there was him and a couple people who had joined after the deployment. There may be places that are lightly guarded, but that's not to say the guards won't shoot at you on sight.
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Mar 2, 2011 16:37
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More on African "mercenaries":quote:People from Niger who have fled Libya tell BBC Hausa that there have been widespread arrests of sub-Saharan Africans. They say they are being forced to either join Col Gaddafi's forces or be killed.
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Mar 2, 2011 16:40
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The Cheshire Cat posted:That said, if someone was trying to break into a military base in the US, they probably wouldn't even get that far, and they will try to subdue and arrest an intruder rather than just shooting them if the person isn't presenting a direct lethal threat. If in a parallel universe the Hutaree militia was thousands strong and had taken already over whole cities in Michigan and was seizing weapons, tanks and explosives from army and national guards installations in the area, I don't think the JCS would hesitate to authorize the bombardment of the installations. Nor would there be any restraints to the use of force in squashing the insurgency. However, the US government would be more likely to try to come up with a negotiated disarmament of the insurgents. Even though the official policy is not to negotiate with terrorists, democratically elected governments generally try to avoid killing their own citizens because they know that it will backfire in the next elections. Negotiating may slightly undermine the credibility of a society based on law and order, but eventually it will work out. For despots, negotiating is less of a choice because giving in to any demands is a slippery slope that can only end in losing all power. Gaddafi is also willing to let his subjects to surrender their arms and go homes, but who would trust his promises of an amnesty to all insurgents? Not even Gaddafi himself would be crazy enough to trust his own word.
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Mar 2, 2011 16:45
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VikingSkull posted:There may be places that are lightly guarded, but that's not to say the guards won't shoot at you on sight. No guards there. Over 10000 weapons and tons of ammo. Not one armed person on base. To get a gun. He would have to go get the gun. Then go get the ammo. It would take like 10 minutes. The only protection was a Glock my roommate had concealed carry for. Masterlock was the theft deterrent. I am not saying this is happening all over, I am just saying in rural america that poo poo would be ripe for the taking with maybe a deer rifle or 12guage and bolt cutters. However, if the US had mass protests everywhere the guards would probably show up and shoot you.
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Mar 2, 2011 16:46
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AJE has some info on Libya's military strength:quote:Al Jazeera's Tim Friend has been researching the size and scope of Libya's military capacity. He tells us:
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Mar 2, 2011 16:49
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Report out of Tripoli:quote:Haroon Siddique just spoke to a British woman who has recently returned from Tripoli, where she was born and brought up, and was shocked by what she saw. She is very worried about her identity being revealed as she has relatives still there she believes are in danger. She said:
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Mar 2, 2011 16:56
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I just wanna say thanks to everybody who is keeping this thread updated, especially Brown Moses. I don't think I've followed any thread as closely as this one in the history of SA.
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Mar 2, 2011 16:56
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From the BBC, Gaddafi's forces got seriously owned by the rebels today:quote:The attempt by Col Gaddafi's supporters to recapture towns along the coast in central Libya seems to have been checked for the time being. quote:The BBC's John Simpson in Brega says: "The town seems now to be entirely cleared of Col Gaddafi's troops. A senior officer sent down from the rebel headquarters in Benghazi speculated a short time ago when I spoke to him beside the road that the pro-Gaddafi troops might have run out of ammunition and been forced to withdraw. What is certain is that the university area is entirely clear of Col Gaddafi's men. I am now down by the sea shore, behind the university, where the heaviest fighting was a few hours ago. The only people here are excited rebels, very proud of what they have achieved. It has been quite a turnaround - you would expect a regular army would beat a rag-tag group of volunteers easily, but many of the opposition fighters were in the military until a couple of weeks ago. And, you get the distinct feeling that Col Gaddafi's men don't necessarily have their hearts in the job." Thanks for the massive moral boosts and discarded weapons, Gaddafi!
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Mar 2, 2011 17:08
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So the first real full scale engagement in the civil war and it seems to have gone as well for the Rebels as could be expected. Given that Gaddafi's forces would have probably been elite / special forces this is a major victory. Hopefully this means the blood shed can be limited if the Gaddafi forces have little will to fight.
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Mar 2, 2011 17:17
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Brown Moses posted:Thanks for the massive moral boosts and discarded weapons, Gaddafi! Col. Gaddafi is honourably sacrificing himself and his forces to the People of Libya, who are him, so they may live.
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Mar 2, 2011 17:18
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dick_move.txt:quote:Reports are coming in from AFP that a fighter jet has fired two missiles at rebels in Brega, who were celebrating what they said was a victory over loyalist troops. There's no word on any casualties. dick_move_fail.txt: quote:More on that airstrike on Brega - AFP reports that no-one was hurt but that the missiles gouged two craters in the ground only metres from where the anti-Gaddafi crowd had been celebrating.
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Mar 2, 2011 17:22
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It's going to be very difficult for the loyalists to win the lost cities back. Any decent sized town is going to require thousands of men to pacify, as each block must be cleared house by house, and this will take days to accomplish. More so for a poorly trained and led force. Consider the US experiences from Iraq, like Fallujah. Even though the Coalition forces there were superiorily trained, equipped and led, and they outnumbered the insurgents more than 5 to 1, the main attack phase lasted for a week and mopping up the isolated pockets of resistance took more than a month. Fallujah is a bigger city than most in Libya and the Coalition had stricter rules of engagement than Libyans, but it gives you an idea of how hard it can be to put down an armed uprising. The only way for Libyan army to do it would be to pave every block down before their infantry advances to occupy the ruins, but that would take weeks to execute. Just for one town. It could take an eternity for Gaddafi to reclaim all of the cities, as I don't think that he has enough loyal operational forces to attack on multiple directions simultaneously.
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Mar 2, 2011 17:34
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I was thinking the same thing earlier, clearing a city of resistance when guns are being distributed to the general population would be a nightmare, even with the best equiped and trained soldiers. The BBC live blog actually just updated with this:quote:The Gaddafi opponents were well-armed, using machine guns as well as artillery in their attempt to repel the regime's assault, says our correspondent.
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Mar 2, 2011 17:40
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I have some doubts that those were his elite forces. It could be he is sending in less vital troops to test the resistance's strength. Maybe it's a trap and he is trying to attract lots of rebel troops to the area or even coax them into attacking Sirte so he can then destroy them all at once in a massive assault with thousands of well trained and equipped soldiers. Or he is trying to deplete their ammunition supply by repeatedly attacking them and retreating. Or maybe he and his commanders are just incompetent, I don't know. By the way, is it Sirt(e) or Surt I have seen it spelled all those ways, oh yeah and the airport is apparently called Sert.  Brega also seems to be really Al Burayqah, very confusing.
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Mar 2, 2011 17:49
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Freigeist posted:I have some doubts that those were his elite forces. He lost 7,900 troops in a ten year period from 1977-1987 7,500 of them were to desolate and war torn North Chad in one year
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Mar 2, 2011 17:53
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Freigeist posted:Brega also seems to be really Al Burayqah, very confusing. Both are valid, actually. Cyrenaica belonged to Italy so some places have Italian names as well as Arabic. Tripoli is also Tarābulus for locals. It's the same thing as English and French calling the German city of Köln as Cologne, after its old Latin name.
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Mar 2, 2011 17:58
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Freigeist posted:By the way, is it Sirt(e) or Surt I have seen it spelled all those ways, oh yeah and the airport is apparently called Sert. I suppose it probably falls into the same spelling issues that Gadaffi's name does. The BBC posted:senior rebel officer had suggested the Gaddafi troops might have run out of ammunition and been forced to withdraw. If that's true then it lends credence to the "incompetent commanders" argument, I guess.
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Mar 2, 2011 18:00
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Freigeist posted:I have some doubts that those were his elite forces. It could be he is sending in less vital troops to test the resistance's strength. Maybe it's a trap and he is trying to attract lots of rebel troops to the area or even coax them into attacking Sirte so he can then destroy them all at once in a massive assault with thousands of well trained and equipped soldiers. Or he is trying to deplete their ammunition supply by repeatedly attacking them and retreating. Or maybe he and his commanders are just incompetent, I don't know. Wouldn't the rebels win a battle of attrition? I mean they control alot more land/bases than CQ, he's got a big desertion problem, etc. Does anyone know the figure on total troops that switched to the rebels now?
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Mar 2, 2011 18:05
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Regardless of whether or not CG is currently using his "elite troops" I find it hard to imagine that there is anyone left on his side at this point that is fighting for anything other than money. There's very little chance his regime will last and I have a feeling that retributions against those who stayed on CQ's side for too long will be pretty fierce, given the brutality that we've already seen from him, so I'm guessing that those left on his side are out to make a paycheck and then find a way out of the country before the regime falls. That means they will probably only put up with so much real heavy fighting before they too turn on him.
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Mar 2, 2011 18:09
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Earwicker posted:Regardless of whether or not CG is currently using his "elite troops" I find it hard to imagine that there is anyone left on his side at this point that is fighting for anything other than money. There's very little chance his regime will last and I have a feeling that retributions against those who stayed on CQ's side for too long will be pretty fierce, given the brutality that we've already seen from him, so I'm guessing that those left on his side are out to make a paycheck and then find a way out of the country before the regime falls. That means they will probably only put up with so much real heavy fighting before they too turn on him. I agree with this. I think military intervention would be disastrous, and of course leaders of other countries would say "See what happens when you try to revolt? America comes in imposes her will" or something to that effect. A no fly zone is ridiculous, this would require strikes on AA defenses that would endanger civilians. Foreign intervention is not the way to go. Look at Kosovo now; a supposed democracy is actually a poor state run by kleptocrats and criminals, all with Western backing.
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Mar 2, 2011 18:40
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Earwicker posted:Regardless of whether or not CG is currently using his "elite troops" I find it hard to imagine that there is anyone left on his side at this point that is fighting for anything other than money. There's very little chance his regime will last and I have a feeling that retributions against those who stayed on CQ's side for too long will be pretty fierce, given the brutality that we've already seen from him, so I'm guessing that those left on his side are out to make a paycheck and then find a way out of the country before the regime falls. That means they will probably only put up with so much real heavy fighting before they too turn on him. Well that's who's still fighting, the people who were in so deep that they know that if Khadafi falls they're going down with him. The problem these people have is that there's pretty much nowhere for them to flee to. Khadafi kind of pissed off the typical places dictators retire.
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Mar 2, 2011 19:47
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Some interesting stuff about Saudi Arabia: First, "Musk Lake" in Jeddah; quote:The sewage system of Jeddah is basically nonexistent; at best, it is inadequate. In many houses, the waste from the bathrooms flows into underground tanks that are emptied every few days by fleets of tanker trucks. The trucks used to drive into the hills to the east of the city and dump their cargo into the deceptively named Musk Lake. That was until 2009, when heavy rains raised concerns that the dam at the western edge of the lake would break -- evoking fears that a proverbial wave of fecal matter would sweep downhill several miles to the city below. Since 2009, Musk Lake has been partially drained and treatment plants set up at what is hoped is a safe distance further into the desert. And then, the succession; quote:In televised and well-photographed action in the Council of Ministers building over the last few months, a bizarre charade is being played out. Crown Prince Sultan, King Abdullah's designated successor, is chairing meetings of the Council of Ministers, as well as greeting visiting foreigners and Saudi dignitaries. Sultan, however, is reportedly suffering from Alzheimer's disease and, anecdotally, does not even recognize government ministers who he has known for years. A WikiLeaks cable described Sultan as "for all intents and purposes incapacitated." Both quotes from this article: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/03/1/saudi_arabias_musk_revolution?page=0,0 There's clearly something I'm not understanding about the Saudi succession. Why can't King Abdullah declare Prince Sultan incompetent and name someone else? And if that wouldn't work due to factions, etc., why can't King Abdullah force Prince Sultan to name his chosen successor and pass the crown to Sultan's choice? IDGI. Don't count Sudan out of the fighting yet: quote:Fresh fighting in a tense area of Southern Sudan has killed dozens of people, officials say. http://english.aljazeera.net//news/africa/2011/03/201132133019841904.html "Proud of killing" is a euphemism for "reporting the true death toll that the government is minimizing to try and make things look a little better" I guess. What an rear end Aguer is. Protip: When there's unrest in all the countries around you, don't start out by pissing off your army quote:Algeria keeps lid on social unrest _ for now http://www.kansascity.com/2011/03/02/2692656/algeria-keeps-lid-on-social-unrest.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter And in Tunisia, the signal is coming from inside the house  :(Translated from French by Google Chrome) quote:"The total freedom on the Internet is the solution" http://www.strategies.fr/actualites/medias/156037W/la-liberte-totale-sur-internet-c-est-la-solution.html <---this is in French if you don't have Google Chrome btw "We must all stand up for our right to view pornography. They can take our lives, but they can never take our pornos!"   Poor fuckers can't even get porno in Tunisia, no wonder all the young men there are angry and angsty and ready to fight. And some advice on how to get your vital pornos from Yemen: (Translated from Arabic by Google Chrome) quote:Several ways to break the block and online source of navigation in Yemen http://www.almasdaronline.com/index.php?page=news&article-section=1&news_id=16933 <---This is in Arabic if you don't have Google Chrome I shouldn't make fun of them, this is what Yemenis have to do if they want to know the truth about anything that the government doesn't want you to see, from protest news to political discussion. In Bahrain, the students stormed out of a secondary school (think high school) to support the protesters: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i5ALC1Waz9M It starts out with a bunch of Arabic or Persian writing, but about 30 seconds in it gets to protest video. It's so cute, I love how the guy who's leading the chants is still in puberty and his voice is changing so it breaks now and then and he sounds like the ginger teenage kid in The Simpsons 
Apology fucked around with this message at 19:52 on Mar 2, 2011 |
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Mar 2, 2011 19:49
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Brown Moses posted:dick_move_fail.txt: Maybe not a fail, per se. If the pilots are being ordered to kill their own countrymen and are threatened with execution if they refuse, then trying to miss is probably a good middle-ground. Edit: Oh wait... only meters away? drat that pilot. And I forgot to consider that he's probably not originally from Libya anyway. Mr. Safe fucked around with this message at 20:11 on Mar 2, 2011 |
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Mar 2, 2011 20:09
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speaking of violence used to put down protests, I think it's important to remind ourselves that our governments are not exactly 'nice' when it comes to controlling protests. http://www.cbc.ca/fifth/2010-2011/youshouldhavestayedathome/index.html
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Mar 2, 2011 20:15
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Jut posted:speaking of violence used to put down protests, I think it's important to remind ourselves that our governments are not exactly 'nice' when it comes to controlling protests. Looks like Arab autocrats should take a page out of the Western playbook and throw in some agent provocateurs.
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Mar 2, 2011 20:50
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Chade Johnson posted:Looks like Arab autocrats should take a page out of the Western playbook and throw in some agent provocateurs. Didn't they already do that? If anything I think the G20 was our government taking plays from the autocrats.
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Mar 2, 2011 20:57
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