Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

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Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Talks via Chavez are a no go:

quote:

Rebels have refused an offer of talks with Col Gaddafi, al-Jazeera reports. The chairman of the newly formed National Libyan Council has reportedly rejected the concept of talks entirely.

quote:

The rebel national Libyan council in Benghazi has said it will accept nothing less that than Gaddafi's exit, and that of all his family and close aides, according to al-Jazeera's Hoda Abdel-Hamid, which seems to rule out Venezuela-brokered mediation talks.

Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 11:06 on Mar 3, 2011

# ? Mar 3, 2011 11:01

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# ? May 18, 2024 03:53

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

quote:

The anti-Gaddafi transitional council has asked the UN for permission to bomb the mercenaries, al-Arabiya TV says.

I don't know if that means they are asking the UN to bomb them, or they have access to bombers they want to use to attack the mercenaries.

# ? Mar 3, 2011 11:24

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

A bit more on the new Egyptin PM:

quote:

The new Egyptian prime minister, Essam Sharaf, sounds like he could represent a genuine break from the Mubarak regime, despite being a former minister himself. From Ahram online (thanks to @Snarkos in the comments section for the tip-off):

quote:
Sharaf was one of a handfull of ex-ministers who declared their support for the revolution in its early days, and is said to have joined the protesters in Tahrir Square days before ex-president Mubarak stepped down.

A professor of engineering who served under Mubarak from 2004-2006, Sharaf is well respected among the Egyptian public. He has been a vocal opponent of the Mubarak regime since leaving office and has been especially critical of the collapse of public transport under the former president.

# ? Mar 3, 2011 11:56

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

The ICC just announced who is being investigated for various crimes:

quote:

Three of Gaddafi's four sons, Saif al-Islam, Khamis Muammar and Mutassim, and Musa Kusa, are among those who will be investigated by the International Criminal Court, according to al-Arabiya (via @SultanAlQassemi). It also names:

quote:
Musa Kasa - Libya's foreign minister and former intelligence chief
Abu Zayd Dorda - director of the external security organisation and former UN ambassador
Abdulqader Yusef Dibri - Gaddafi's bodyguard chief

# ? Mar 3, 2011 12:06

Lascivious Sloth: Apr 26, 2008; by sebmojo

For Gaddafi government to consider negotiating with the rebels means 1) they are desperate, and 2) they are out of touch with reality

# ? Mar 3, 2011 12:13

Elliptical Dick: Oct 11, 2008; I made the bald man cry
into the turtle stew

Narmi posted:

An in Libya it's been confirmed that Libyan troops have captured three Dutch soldiers who were on a secret mission to evacuate civilians last Thursday in an area near Sirte. Not sure what the fallout from this will be - they're still being held captive somewhere, so would that be grounds to mount a rescue mission? (or rather, what is the probability of the Dutch government authorizing one?)

In my estimation it is extremely unlikely that the Dutch government will do anything of the sort. They are probably embarassed as poo poo that they got some of their soldiers caught on the soil of a sovereign country that they are not at war with and entered illegally. Expect a lot of diplomatic posturing.

# ? Mar 3, 2011 12:21

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

quote:

@Olemars, in the comments section, has an interesting point about the Egyptian prime minister's resignation:

quote:
Worth to note about Ahmed Shafiq's exit is that last night egyptian TV aired their first true televised debate between a prime minister and opposition members. During the show Shafiq was pinned down on questions about security police and other things and repeatedly lost his temper.

Here's an account by an egyptian:
http://egyptianchronicles.blogspot.com/2011/03/unforgettable-night-in-arab-tv-history.html

There were also an awful lot of comments by people mocking his performance on Twitter during the broadcast. The Egyptian activist Mahmoud Salem, who uses the moniker Sandmonkey, tweeted in reaction to Shafiq's exit:

quote:
Shafiq resigned, as a preemptive strike agains friday protest. Also the ripping he got didn't help.

# ? Mar 3, 2011 12:24

Ham: Apr 30, 2009; You're BALD!

I'm honestly sad Shafik's resigned as Prime Minister, he might have done a good job. Don't know a lot about Essam Sharaf, and they'll have to form a new government now.

# ? Mar 3, 2011 12:24

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

I missed this early, but Mubarak will be questioned about corruption.

# ? Mar 3, 2011 12:40

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Another mysteriously inaccurate bombing in Brega:

quote:

A little more information from Brega about this morning's air strikes, via AFP: Fattah al-Moghrabi, director of supplies for Brega hospital, said a bomb was dropped in an area between the oil company and the residential part of the town. No-one was hurt, he said.

Bit more from Brega:

quote:

The airstrike in Brega today did not inflict any casualties, the Associated Press reports:

quote:
There was no sign of any pro-Gaddafi forces around Brega and aside from the airstrike, the area was calm. No casualties from the airstrike were reported, but a few rebel fighters were rushed to the hospital with wounds after a mortar they were handling exploded.
"In the last 24 hours, we had a bit of a panic here," oil company employee Osman Rajab told the AP. "Now they (the rebel army) are trying to control the industrial areas," he said, referring to the oil complex.
At the edge of Brega's massive oil facility, the rebel army set up a line of defense, with soldiers, four pickup trucks mounted with machine guns and one truck towing a rocket launcher.

Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 12:57 on Mar 3, 2011

# ? Mar 3, 2011 12:48

Pureauthor: Jul 8, 2010; ASK ME ABOUT KISSING A GHOST

I guess we can theorize maybe some of the pilots are missing on purpose? Or is it normal for people to be this inaccurate with whatever model of plane/bomb they're using?

# ? Mar 3, 2011 13:17

Hob_Gadling: Jul 6, 2007; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS; Grimey Drawer

Pureauthor posted:

I guess we can theorize maybe some of the pilots are missing on purpose?

Not necessarily on purpose, but I bet they don't have a huge incentive to actually hit anything. From the pilots point of view getting there and dropping the bombs on first pass wherever is the safest bet. Least chance of getting hit by ground fire, least chance of getting shot as traitor when they return, least chance of getting shot by the rebels if they happen to win the war. The equipment is also old, must be in pretty rough shape and quality of pilots is probably dubious so even if they wanted, hitting anything meaningful would be a crapshoot.

# ? Mar 3, 2011 13:22

Suntory BOSS: Apr 17, 2006

I wonder if they've disabled the ejecting mechanisms so pilots can't bail out and join the rebels.

# ? Mar 3, 2011 13:25

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Afternoon recap from The Guardian

quote:

� Brega and Ajdabiya have reportedly been bombed by Gaddafi's forces as troops loyal to the Libyan leader continue their bid to reclaim towns and cities
controlled by anti-Gaddafi demonstrators. Reuters reported that the airport in Brega was targeted, while strikes in Ajdabiya were aimed at forces massed at the city's western gate. No casualties were reported.

� The ICC has launched a full investigation into the bloody crackdown in Libya. ICC prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo said there were people with "de facto authority" responsible for the violence, but only identified only Muammar Gaddafi by name. He also referred to Gaddafi's sons and the Libyan leader's "inner circle". Earlier there were reports that three of Gaddafi's four sons Saif al-Islam, Khamis Muammar and Mutassim would be investigated.

� Three Dutch marines are being held by Gaddafi's forces, a Netherlands defence ministry spokesman said. The marines were captured as they attempted to rescue two European workers near Sirte on Sunday. The three were surrounded by armed men after landing near Sirte in a Lynx helicopter from the navy ship HMS Tromp, which was anchored off the Libyan coast. The two Europeans whom they had attempted to rescue have been handed over unharmed to the Dutch embassy in Tripoli and since left Libya. A spokesman for the Dutch defence ministry said officials were in "intensive negotiations" with Gaddafi's government over the marines release.

� Venezuela's president, Hugo Chavez, has proposed a "committee of peace" to mediate between western countries and Gaddafi. Venezuela communications minister Andr�s Izarra said Venezuela's president, who has forged close ties with Gaddafi and refused to condemn him for his crackdown on protesters, spoke on Tuesday with the Libyan leader. Al Jazeera reported Gaddafi had agreed to the proposal that his opponents rejected it. Venezuelan foreign minister Nicol�s Maduro said the creation of such a bloc could help resolve the conflict in Libya, adding that his government felt diplomacy � rather than military threats � should be used to end the violence sweeping the north African nation.

� Egypt's prime minister, Ahmed Shafiq, has resigned and been replaced by former transport minister Essam Sharaf. Shafiq had been under pressure to go because of his links to the deposed dictator Hosni Mubarak, who appointed him before stepping down as president. A million-man march was planned for tomorrow to force out Shafiq and other members of the cabinet linked to Mubarak. In addition to the demonstrations, 61 intellectuals and public figures had called on Egypt's supreme military council to dissolve the sitting cabinet.

# ? Mar 3, 2011 13:33

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

quote:

BBC Monitoring has picked up an intruiging report from al-Libya TV, the state TV channel: it says a mind-boggling 37 billion sedative pills have been seized at a Libyan port. Col Gaddafi has publicly accused protesters and rebels of being under the influence of drugs brought into the country by al-Qaeda.

That's about 6000 pills per person in Libya.

If every pill weighed .01g that would be about 3,700 tonnes of pills, minus packaging.

Also it's pretty impressive all those rebels dosed up with sedatives managed to fight off Gaddafi's forces in Brega.

Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 14:08 on Mar 3, 2011

# ? Mar 3, 2011 14:04

Slantedfloors: Apr 29, 2008; Wait, What?

Brown Moses posted:

That's about 6000 pills per person in Libya.

If every pill weighed .01g that would be about 3,700 tonnes of pills, minus packaging.

If these were purchased by Gaddafi in an attempt to provide evidence for his retarded "AL-QUEDA HALLUCINOGENIC RIOT DRUGS" claims, it will be the best thing ever.

# ? Mar 3, 2011 14:30

Nuclear Spoon: Aug 18, 2010; I want to cry out
but I don’t scream and I don’t shout
And I feel so proud
to be alive

I'd be surprised if they weren't.

# ? Mar 3, 2011 14:38

Earwicker: Jan 6, 2003

Yes you see Al Queda somehow convinced half the Libyan populace to take 6000 sleeping pills each and then, while they were asleep and half dead, attacked them with dream magick turning them into Islamist zombies controlled by the western media.

# ? Mar 3, 2011 14:41

Namarrgon: Dec 23, 2008; Congratulations on not getting fit in 2011!

Nuclear Spoon posted:

I'd be surprised if they weren't.

I'd be surprised if they actually exist.

# ? Mar 3, 2011 14:43

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

That explains all those convoys of lorrys carrying shipping containers driven by men in big beards heading towards the east of the country.

# ? Mar 3, 2011 14:44

Total Meatlove: Jan 28, 2007; Rangers died, shoujo Hitler cried ;_;

Elliptical Dick posted:

In my estimation it is extremely unlikely that the Dutch government will do anything of the sort. They are probably embarassed as poo poo that they got some of their soldiers caught on the soil of a sovereign country that they are not at war with and entered illegally. Expect a lot of diplomatic posturing.

It's not illegal.

# ? Mar 3, 2011 14:45

UltraShame: Nov 6, 2006; Vocabulum.

Earwicker posted:

Yes you see Al Queda somehow convinced half the Libyan populace to take 6000 sleeping pills each and then, while they were asleep and half dead, attacked them with dream magick turning them into Islamist zombies controlled by the western media.

Don't forget the CIA arming them.

# ? Mar 3, 2011 14:47

Pureauthor: Jul 8, 2010; ASK ME ABOUT KISSING A GHOST

Of all the drugs possible, why'd they choose sedatives to report them as?

# ? Mar 3, 2011 14:48

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

I bet they look like ecstasy pills with a crescent moon stamped into them.

# ? Mar 3, 2011 14:48

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Pureauthor posted:

I guess we can theorize maybe some of the pilots are missing on purpose? Or is it normal for people to be this inaccurate with whatever model of plane/bomb they're using?

It can't be ruled out, but if you just didn't want to hit something in Libya, you would jettison your munitions in the desert rather than intentionally dropping bombs close (and potentially killing some kid you didn't see). The more likely explanation is that these are poorly trained pilots using outdated equipment. Even the USAF misses their targets all the time (or in 2003, would hit British convoys), as missiles go stray or the target is misidentified.

Libya has no precision guided munitions, so they must do with simpler stuff, like freefall bombs or older generation missiles. These can still be used for great effect, but require better training than 3rd world countries airforces usually have: the foremost mission is to be able to protect your own airspace, and Libyans have a poor track record with that (in the Egypt-Libya war of 1977 Egyptian air force raped them). They do have some experiences about air-to-surface bombings 20 years back, but they weren't too good at it even then.

quote:

The air force was extensively used in the fighting in Chad in the 1980s, in support of Libyan ground units. It was reported that many Libyan bombing raids were carried out at excessively high altitudes when met with anti-aircraft fire so the attacks did not play a decisive role.

# ? Mar 3, 2011 15:17

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

That does make sense, especially now the rebels have AA guns.

# ? Mar 3, 2011 15:20

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

The earlier resignation of the PM in Egypt has gone down well:

quote:

Opposition groups are considering calling off a million-man march planned for tomorrow after the prime minister resigned (see 9.37am) and a former minister who joined the protests against Mubarak was asked to form a new government by the military, Al-Masry Al-Youm reports:

quote:
The National Association for Change, headed by Mohamed ElBaradei, the shadow parliament comprised of opposition figures, and the 25 January youth coalition have requested that Friday's demonstration be called off in recognition of the dismissal of Shafiq's government.

"The decision of the supreme [military] council is a considerable response to people's demands � We hope the new government achieves our aspirations and we hope the supreme council meets the rest of demands, including the formation of a presidential council to run the country during the transitional period, the abolition of emergency law, and release of the rest of the political detainees," said the general coordinator of the National Assembly for change, Abdel-Geliel Mustafa, in a statement to Al-Masry Al-Youm.

# ? Mar 3, 2011 16:00

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Not only did the rebels win the Battle of Brega, they also captured loads of enemy soldiers:

quote:

A hundred soldiers loyal to Colonel Gaddafi were taken prisoner by rebels in the town of Brega yesterday, AFP news agency reports. "We have taken many prisoners, not less than one hundred," said a spokesman for the rebels, in Benghazi.

Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 16:19 on Mar 3, 2011

# ? Mar 3, 2011 16:17

Earwicker: Jan 6, 2003

Brown Moses posted:

The earlier resignation of the PM in Egypt has gone down well:

That's a great sign. Still a lot of work to do and a lot that could go wrong but it's really encouraging to see the different "sides" really listening to each other (or at least seeming to)

# ? Mar 3, 2011 16:18

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

This should be good:

quote:

Reuters has just posted this:

quote:
LIBYA'S MUAMMAR GADDAFI HAS AGREED TO VENEZUELA'S CHAVEZ PROPOSAL TO "END CRISIS" - YOSBERIDES ONLINE NEWSPAPER

I fully expect this to be amazingly insulting to the people of Libya.

# ? Mar 3, 2011 16:50

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Bit more:

quote:

More from Reuters on the Venezuela proposal:

quote:
Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi has agreed to a proposal floated by his ally Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez (left) to end the crisis in the north African country, the online edition of Yosberides newspaper reported on Thursday.

The Arab League has also accepted Chavez's proposal, added Yosberides, formerly known as Quryna. It did not cite a source.

quote:

And more on the Venezuelan proposal from Reuters:

quote:
The Libyan government has accepted a plan by Venezuela to seek a negotiated solution to the conflict in the north African country, a spokesman for president Hugo Chavez said on Thursday.

Information minister Andres Izarra also confirmed the Arab League had shown interest in the Chavez plan to send an international commission to talk with both sides in Libya.

But on the otherhand:

quote:

Reporting from Benghazi, the BBC's Lyse Doucet tweets: "Heard some anxious Libyans at HQ National Council Benghazi saying some family members being picked up in Tripoli".

I think the rebels first request will be for Gaddafi to go gently caress himself.

# ? Mar 3, 2011 16:58

Narmi: Feb 26, 2008

Brown Moses posted:

I fully expect this to be amazingly insulting to the people of Libya.

For him to enter in talks would mean he'd have to acknowledge what's happened so fan. Anything less would be an insult. Also the Libyan people have rejected the offer for talks since he proposed it, so Chavez's offer is kinda pointless.

# ? Mar 3, 2011 17:03

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Now the ICC is involved I don't see how Gaddafi and his family won't end up there if anything that's acceptable to the rebels is proposed.

# ? Mar 3, 2011 17:05

breaklaw: May 12, 2008

Why the hell would the opposition want to have anything to do with Chavez or Venezuela? They know he just be looking out for Gaddafi's interests no matter what he says. What did Chavez ever have to offer anyone in the region, even Gaddafi, besides solidarity in America-hate?

Also, what's the currently accepted term for the non-Gaddafi side? It seems to have gone from 'Protesters' to 'Opposition' to 'Rebels'. Are people still saying 'Rebels'?

# ? Mar 3, 2011 17:21

Total Meatlove: Jan 28, 2007; Rangers died, shoujo Hitler cried ;_;

I think people are waiting until they stop being Protestors and become 'Rebels' because that'll open a whole new level of hurt on Gadaffi in terms of Non-International Armed Conflicts and Article 3 rights.

# ? Mar 3, 2011 17:24

Chade Johnson: Oct 12, 2009; by Ozmaugh

ibroxmassive posted:

It's not illegal.

It's illegal to send military forces into a country you are not at war with. It's far more complex than that, obviously, but that's the short version.

# ? Mar 3, 2011 17:24

Earwicker: Jan 6, 2003

breaklaw posted:

Also, what's the currently accepted term for the non-Gaddafi side? It seems to have gone from 'Protesters' to 'Opposition' to 'Rebels'. Are people still saying 'Rebels'?

Yeah I'd say they are rebels now. Once you get to the point of using tanks and artillery it's not really a "protest" anymore, it's a war - or at least, a rebellion.

# ? Mar 3, 2011 17:33

Total Meatlove: Jan 28, 2007; Rangers died, shoujo Hitler cried ;_;

Chade Johnson posted:

It's illegal to send military forces into a country you are not at war with. It's far more complex than that, obviously, but that's the short version.

From what I've been told and what I've read, it's not illegal for State A to use proportionate and limited force to enter the sovereign territory of State B with the intent to save or protect citizens of State A.

Operation Entebbe being the prime example.

# ? Mar 3, 2011 17:35

mdemone: Mar 14, 2001

Hob_Gadling posted:

From the pilots point of view getting there and dropping the bombs on first pass wherever is the safest bet.

Tell that to Havermeyer. He always gives the gunners below all the time they need to set their sights and take their aim and pull their triggers or lanyards or switches or whatever the hell it is they pull when they want to kill people they don't know.

# ? Mar 3, 2011 17:45

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# ? May 18, 2024 03:53

Namarrgon: Dec 23, 2008; Congratulations on not getting fit in 2011!

ibroxmassive posted:

From what I've been told and what I've read, it's not illegal for State A to use proportionate and limited force to enter the sovereign territory of State B with the intent to save or protect citizens of State A.

Operation Entebbe being the prime example.

Military legality is an incredibly murky issue and usually in the end it doesn't really matter what is said on paper.

# ? Mar 3, 2011 17:57

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