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Freigeist posted:Zuwara has fallen to Gaddafi troops already, looks like there wasn't a lot of resistance after all. Really? Because in the past two days we've seen two segments of Gaddafi's army defecting with likely far more to follow. Gaddafi has also apparently stopped capturing cities and started just destroying them (and not being spectacularely successful at that, even when his army isn't defecting, remember Brega was back in rebel hands the same day). Furthermore on an international there's increasing pressure for a NFZ and no support for Tripolitania and an increasing support and formal recognition for the rebels. Also; Namarrgon posted:A lot of people suddenly think Gaddafi is still going to win this? I think even if he was unchallenged militarily (he isn't, remember that most if not all of the rebel's military will be in the east, Zawiyah was relatively undefended) he simply doesn't have the manpower to retake Libya. It would be like the Netherlands trying to occupy Germany; sure our troops could take a big city maybe, but what if you want to take the next one? You have to move out and the former conquered city simply rebels. Seriously he can't win.
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Mar 14, 2011 20:49
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Sivias posted:As if the vehicles are rolling into the city without infantry assistance? Wouldn't they know they're highly vulnerable in an urban environment? I'm sure they're not just rolling in by themselves, especially if they have any training, as the Gaddafi troops are suspected to have. You'd think so, but better militaries have made the same mistake, and that's without the desperation of a massive amount of defections. I can definately see some Ghaddafi loyalist trying to make a name for himself and rolling in with just armoured vehicles to try and cow the rebels.
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Mar 14, 2011 20:51
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Sivias posted:Finally, they said they *captured* the armored vehicles, not destroyed them. However - these are little more than rumours that you are hearing from the battles, not some professional historian's account of the action based on war diaries of both sides, so we don't really know what is meant. I wouldn't give too much credit to any particular tidbits unless they were backed by photos or video and had some more details to them. Internet makes information spread very fast but it doesn't make that information reliable. Especially when there is no source stated.
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Mar 14, 2011 21:00
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Freigeist posted:Gonna be pretty embarrassing for the European nations to come crawling back begging for forgiveness. This is a bit preposterous. The international community and the Arab league has already condemned Gaddafi for crimes against humanity. If he does somehow beat back half of his country (  ) The level of exodus of the Libyan people will be so great the international community will be forced to escalate their actions beyond the current discussion of NFZ, etc.
Sivias fucked around with this message at 21:09 on Mar 14, 2011 |
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Mar 14, 2011 21:01
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Sivias posted:You see videos of people in vans that just hose through crowds of people, I'm sure any vehicle with any sort of power and armor could easily deal with getting out of some snag engagement. From the little I know about shielding vehicles, their is not too much you can do to make yourself completely safe. Bulletproof glass and armor for cars is all fine a dandy when it comes to small-arms fire and might put up a good fight against an M4 but their really is not much you can do against an AK-47 or big blast from an RPG/IED. Shoot a few AK rounds through the driver side window,even if the glass is "Bullet proof" and you got yourself a captured armored vehicle; Just might be a little shot up and bloody.
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Mar 14, 2011 21:03
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Higher Quality Video of Saudi Armour moving into bahrain The video commentator is talking about how our gulf brothers are working together to maintain the stability and economic gains of the country and further ensuring the countries prosperity and whatnot. That's alot more armour than I thought they'd send, it seems like the GCC is going to be quite active in making sure the the status quo is maintained for each other.
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Mar 14, 2011 21:23
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Stratfor youtube comments are even worse than normal.quote:If the GCC didnt intervene, then within 1 week, bahrain would be part of iran! quote:You just said military intervention.. The shia's have no chance of victory here,, we just wish that everything goes back to normal soon. And may god bless Saudi Arabia and GCC for reassuring Bahrain's safety. UAE is also sending (Ar.) forces into Bahrain. They probably won't take action right away, but as soon as the protesters attempt to storm a building or something, it'll get ugly.
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Mar 14, 2011 21:31
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ArchDemon posted:If I were a rebel leader, I'd be making large posters telling the opposing troops that they could enter a friendly zone and be welcomed into our side or something, allowing the loyalist troops a chance to defect without being shot. IIRC news out of Benghazi back when violence first started breaking out was filled with accounts of troops approaching protesters while saying "Don't worry, we're with you!" and then opening fire at close range.
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Mar 14, 2011 21:44
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So... taking advantage of the Egyptian army-people amity and exploiting it in Libya?
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Mar 14, 2011 22:20
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Namarrgon posted:Really? Because in the past two days we've seen two segments of Gaddafi's army defecting with likely far more to follow. Gaddafi has also apparently stopped capturing cities and started just destroying them (and not being spectacularely successful at that, even when his army isn't defecting, remember Brega was back in rebel hands the same day). Furthermore on an international there's increasing pressure for a NFZ and no support for Tripolitania and an increasing support and formal recognition for the rebels. Unless I missed something only a handful of soldiers defected at Misurata, others were killed in the fighting or executed. That stopped progress on that front momentarily, but won't change much in the long run. As long as Gaddafi has all the heavy equipment and his airforce he won't lose militarily. And I just can't see him running out of supplies or money, he has far more of that than the rebels to begin with and it seems like he is being resupplied with the help of other African dictators. Remember Libya is still exporting oil and he is being paid for it. Meanwhile all the rebels are getting is medicine and food, can't fight tanks and planes with that. Unless a big part of his army defects and is not immediately slaughtered, or there is a big uprising in Tripoli I don't see how he can lose right now, the rebel faction is simply too weak militarily to win this. Honestly, it's not like this is a conclusion I came to on my own, most articles I have read over the last week are basically saying rebels are totally outgunned and pretty much hosed if something big doesn't happen soon. Edit: Though it's true retaking Cyrenaica is going to be extremely difficult with the few thousand loyal troops he has, even with air support. neamp fucked around with this message at 22:47 on Mar 14, 2011 |
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Mar 14, 2011 22:42
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And they are all wrong. I bet 95% of those articles are based on what that quack Director of National Intelligence said. I also noticed that the media here (Western Europe) is somewhat selective of it's news and broadcasting. They are sometimes subtle things; choice of words, slightly misleading article titles etc and sometimes big things; for example here the nation's most popular online news source hasn't even hinted that Brega is back in rebel hands. Yes if I were to judge purely by what the news reports I'd be inclined to lean towards Gaddafi's inevitable victory as well. The best case scenario for Gaddafi is holding on to Tripoli more or less indefinitely while it slides into an anarchist hell hole.
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Mar 14, 2011 22:51
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Did what happen in Zawiya essentially bog down Qaddafi's forces? I mean, they took the city at a high price, but all that means is now he's dealing with guerrillas and not open fighting. IIRC, fighting is still going on in that city. Who knows is this Zuwara will be the same? Fake surrendered the city, drive the army in and fight them in guerrilla terms.
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Mar 14, 2011 22:56
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Namarrgon posted:And they are all wrong. I bet 95% of those articles are based on what that quack Director of National Intelligence said.
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Mar 14, 2011 23:30
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UN's envoy has gotten around to visiting Libyaquote:* UN special Libya envoy holds first Gaddafi govt meeting source Given that he's on a fact finding mission, I really hope he visits more than just Tripoli. I doubt they'd send someone who'd be easily fooled, but unless he verifies himself what's been going on, (especially in Zawiya, Brega and Benghazi), his take on the situation could be very different than the one we've been presented by eyewitness accounts in those cities. When you consider the amount of effort Gaddafi is putting into projecting that everything's fine and the people love him (not that I think he'll believe it), it prevents him from actually finding out the crimes committed against people and what they've gone through. Narmi fucked around with this message at 23:52 on Mar 14, 2011 |
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Mar 14, 2011 23:50
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I'm a westerner in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia and got an interesting text on my phone within the past hour from my mobile service. Typing it exactly as it appears on my cell: <<Bahrain>> Govr announcement: -Protesters given a warning & a deadline to evacuate pearl roundabout. -Army will step in if someone refuses to leave. -Emergency is declared. -Army will spread out in every city. -Martial law is introduced. -Curfew as well. So it looks like poo poo's going down tomorrow or the next day. I've been to Bahrain a few times since the protests broke out and it's been quite calm. The Pearl Roundabout was obviously a no-go but everything else was operating as usual. I'm hoping this clears up quickly, as Bahrain is a wonderful country and I'd hate to see these protests continue to sully its reputation as a stable financial hub in the Middle East.
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Mar 15, 2011 00:55
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Mattksa posted:I'm hoping this clears up quickly, as Bahrain is a wonderful country and I'd hate to see these protests continue to sully its reputation as a stable financial hub in the Middle East.
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Mar 15, 2011 02:38
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Mattksa posted:So it looks like poo poo's going down tomorrow or the next day. I've been to Bahrain a few times since the protests broke out and it's been quite calm. The Pearl Roundabout was obviously a no-go but everything else was operating as usual. I'm hoping this clears up quickly, as Bahrain is a wonderful country and I'd hate to see these protests continue to sully its reputation as a stable financial hub in the Middle East. Those uppity shias, demanding equal rights, fair representation and an end to discrimination.  e: A Guardian article on the NFZ from the British perspective: quote:Britain is to join forces with France and Lebanon in a fresh attempt to isolate Muammar Gaddafi by drawing up a new United Nations security council resolution that would include a threat to impose a no-fly zone over Libya and a toughening of measures against the use of mercenaries. source I really hope they make a decision soon, since they seem to realize that time is running out. Also that part about Gaddafi rearming is worrying to say the least - I heard there rumour (Belarus providing helicopters, a ship with the Greek flag unloading military vehicles in Tripoli), but nothing concrete. If it's true, it negates the gains made by the rebels in terms of equipment destroyed. Narmi fucked around with this message at 03:28 on Mar 15, 2011 |
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Mar 15, 2011 03:14
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Namarrgon posted:Seriously he can't win. The rebels are totally out gunned and out amored, especially with those nice new italian artillery units he has. His strategy has been working out really well, bomb from air, art them, and then push up technicals, tanks and foot soldiers. This has happened at every town and he is 100 miles from ben, I would hazarad a guess the will be within artillery range inside of a week and then its game over. The international community waited to long, there is no way the rebels can retake the towns that gadafi holds. Sure a NFZ could be implemented at this point but what are they going to do about the tanks and artillery units, its a freaking desert and the rebels don't have the training or the vehicles to take on heavy armor. It would be a turkey shoot for gadafi's forces.
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Mar 15, 2011 03:58
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edit: nm, seems to have fixed itself after a couple hundred refreshes.
Sivias fucked around with this message at 04:21 on Mar 15, 2011 |
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Mar 15, 2011 04:07
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I think that this is still up in the air and could go either way depending on the international response, and the move the rebels make to counter Gad's strategy.
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Mar 15, 2011 04:40
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stgdz posted:No, Gadafi is going to win. It's possible that he could win militarily, but all he'd gain is a huge stretch of burned out towns he'd have to garrison with troops that could never go to sleep without getting their throats cut.
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Mar 15, 2011 06:34
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Slantedfloors posted:It's possible that he could win militarily, but all he'd gain is a huge stretch of burned out towns he'd have to garrison with troops that could never go to sleep without getting their throats cut. What would he really win? His country is destroyed at his own hand and there's no way in hell he'll get back in the good graces of anybody due to the killing. For 'winning,' he's certainly poo poo where he ate. That said, I think the rebels will pull out a win here.
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Mar 15, 2011 06:58
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stgdz posted:No, Gadafi is going to win. The tanks are the reason I can see Gaddafi hold out in Tripoli indefinitely, but as pointed out before they are pointless if you want to capture other cities. And the problem is that Gaddafi will have to occupy every single city, it's not just a matter of driving out the rebels, the population are the rebels. That said I am still certain it won't get that far, Gaddafi will certainly not 'win' militarily.
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Mar 15, 2011 07:10
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stgdz posted:No, Gadafi is going to win.
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Mar 15, 2011 07:14
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Nonsense posted:The UN and the countries involved in wanting this NFZ took way too long. This 'uprising' is essentially over. The rebellion is not likely anything close to over, but the only thing that would change anything, for better or worse, would be unilateral action, and that isn't very likely. The Libyan rebel leaders are pressing for a western country to assassinate Gaddafi and his forces. It's a move that shows how bad their situation is from a week ago when they wanted no military intervention aside from a NFZ. It's looking like their days are numbered - it's either hold out and die fighting or seek refuge abroad. I think they all have a price on their heads too, and Gaddafi has offered amnesty to any rebel who lays down their arms and surrenders (I can't see him keeping his word, but I'm sure there are people desperate enough to believe him). quote:Libya's revolutionary leadership is pressing western powers to assassinate Muammar Gaddafi and launch military strikes against his forces to protect rebel-held cities from the threat of bloody assault. You can read the rest here, I only copied the more relevant part. There's also talk about Libya becoming a breeding ground for extremist frustrated with the West for supporting Gaddafi for a decade and supplying him with weapons and training that were used against them, then condemning him but refusing to help them when they needed it most. quote:However, Gheriani said that if the west failed to offer practical help to the revolutionaries to free themselves from Gaddafi's rule it risked frustrated Libyans turning to religious extremists. (from the same article above) I really hope I'm wrong and they get a NFZ soon (it might not help them against artillery, but it would give them a huge morale boost), but it's looking like the worst case scenario for Libya. While I think it's still too early to call this one, the situation heavily favours Gaddafi, and like you said, short of military intervention the rebels have lost this battle. My guess (based on precedent) is we're going to see a mass exodus from Libya over the next few months/years into Egypt, Tunisia and across the Mediterranean while Libya becomes the next Iraq. With minor acts of rebellion here and there, unless they manage to unseat him (still a possibility, but it will definitely take longer and be harder) Gaddafi will remain a pariah until he dies and one of his sons takes over. A few years after that, when the memory of what happened in the past few weeks has faded, the new leader of Libya will suddenly reform, distance himself from his father and be welcomed with open arms. e: Or Gaddafi could do something really stupid like attack a neighbouring country and get crushed in retaliation since his army is just only good for keeping his people repressed, at which point he'll flee to Venezuela and live out his life in luxury. Really, the parallels between him and Idi Amin are too big not to draw that conclusion. Narmi fucked around with this message at 08:50 on Mar 15, 2011 |
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Mar 15, 2011 08:42
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I see a big difference between "hey guys getting rid of Gaddafi right now will prevent a lot of unnecessary bloodshed on both sides" and "please assassinate Gaddafi or we'll lose".
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Mar 15, 2011 09:02
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Namarrgon posted:I see a big difference between "hey guys getting rid of Gaddafi right now will prevent a lot of unnecessary bloodshed on both sides" and "please assassinate Gaddafi or we'll lose". The difference is that for the past two weeks they were staunchly against ANY outside interference other than a NFZ - they said that they could handle everything else on their own and were making plans to march on Tripoli themselves. Now they're asking for direct intervention outside of that (not just on Gaddafi either, they want his tanks and rockets taken out). Their backs are against the wall and they know it. They even refused to let reporters go to Brega, and it's supposed to be back in their hands. What it boils down to is that they need outside help to win this, and that is not going to happen. The rebellion isn't over, and ultimately I think they'll persevere, but as far as the TNC goes they have the choice between fight or flight. e: To clarify where I'm coming from, the situation in Libya right now reminds me of the rebellion in Iraq - rebels with small arms and soldiers who defected took over a few town and managed to capture some tanks as well, and were confident they'd get help from the US in overthrowing Saddam, but were massacred by Saddam fairly quickly once he mobilized his forces. Narmi fucked around with this message at 09:48 on Mar 15, 2011 |
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Mar 15, 2011 09:24
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The French Minister of Foreign Affairs declared on the radio that we don't have the military means to stop Benghazi from falling, since he wasn't able to convince the G8 members. -edit- here's a source : http://www.lexpress.fr/actualites/1/actualite/le-g8-divise-ecarte-l-option-militaire-en-libye_972214.html?actu=1 He also says we probably should have used military might last week to neutralize some airfields and destroy the few dozen aircraft Kadhafi has. Yeah it's pretty sad, I think the government is trying to cover all bases, so that if we never intervene they can just blame others. vvvvv pylb fucked around with this message at 10:19 on Mar 15, 2011 |
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Mar 15, 2011 09:52
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pylb posted:The French Minister of Foreign Affairs declared on the radio that we don't have the military means to stop Benghazi from falling, since he wasn't able to convince the G8 members. That's a hilarious condemnation of France's military right there. Gadaffi has a tiny fleet of broken down planes and like 1 or 2 divisions that he actually trusts enough to give guns. Napoleon is spinning in his fancy casket.
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Mar 15, 2011 10:10
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March 15th Live Blogs LibyaFeb17.com] Guardian AJE quote:Rebels say they are fortifying the town of Ajdabiya, against a possible assault by advancing forces loyal to Gaddafi, according to the Associated Press reports. quote:ReutersFrance has so far not convinced all other G8 parties to agree to push the UN for a no-fly zone. Germany and Russia showed the most reservation. France’s foreign minister Alain Juppe said that the international community was dragging its feet. “If we had used military force last week … maybe the reversal that went against the opposition (forces) would not have happened,” he said. The Russian foreign minister said a no-fly zone could be ineffective or even counterproductive, he suggested urging the UN for other measures to curb the violence.
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Mar 15, 2011 11:03
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quote:A rebel spokesman, Ahmed al-Zwei, has told the Associated Press that "intermittent" fighting between the two sides was taking place on a 50-mile (80-kilometre) stretch of road between Ajdabiya and the oil port of Brega. Control of Brega has been split between the rebels and regime forces after days of fierce clashes.
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Mar 15, 2011 11:18
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Some good news for the rebels:quote:Al Jazeera's Tony Birtley reports from Benghazi that "There is no immediate threat to Benghazi, and the rebels have a new commander, an experienced commander who has defected from Gaddafi forces. Brega is still back and forth: quote:Meanwhile to the east, fighting is going on for the oil town of Brega, Reuters is reporting. News from the west: quote:Witnesses have told the Associated Press that Libyan government troops have captured Zwara, the last rebel-held city west of Tripoli to fall back under government control.
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Mar 15, 2011 11:48
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Brega seems to be a key test for both sides:quote:Chris McGreal has been on the line from Benghazi. He says there is mood of grim defiance and a realisation that the opposition is now in a fight for survival. quote:Chris McGreal said that the rebels believe that Brega will the real test. It looks like Gaddafi is thinking along the same lines. Al Jazeera is reporting that Gaddafi is moving some of his best troops to Brega, commanded by his sons, Saadi and Khamis. quote:Al Jazeera Arabic correspondent update from east Libya:
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Mar 15, 2011 12:45
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SAUDI ARABIA UPDATE: -- All of a sudden there's alot of police security downtown, nobody know why or what's going on. -- A Saudi Soldier has been shot dead in Bahrain. at the same time the king of Bahrain has announced a three month state of emergency.
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Mar 15, 2011 13:33
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More from Libya:quote:1. The area we are in is being bombarded with rocket launchers and planes.
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Mar 15, 2011 13:38
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I don't know how true this is, but it's crazy if it's true:quote:Al Jazeera Arabic News that the Free Libyan Airforce have destroyed and sunk 2 Gaddafi warships and hit a third off the coast of Ajdabiya and Benghazi
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Mar 15, 2011 15:31
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Brown Moses posted:I don't know how true this is, but it's crazy if it's true: Whoa, they get some of those... MiG-23s was it? Working? Got a link? I checked AJE and couldn't find anything. Obviously it runs behind normal AJ though.
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Mar 15, 2011 15:41
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I got it from the LibyaFeb17 site, I think it must have been in the AJ Arabic channel, so there's no news stories about it yet. It was about 30 minutes ago I think.
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Mar 15, 2011 15:44
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Galaga Galaxian posted:Whoa, they get some of those... MiG-23s was it? Working? Got a link? I checked AJE and couldn't find anything. Obviously it runs behind normal AJ though. There were a couple defector pilots early in the revolution as well.. perhaps they were allowed to return.
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Mar 15, 2011 15:48
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The AJE Live blog has posted a little more info:quote:Anti-government activists said that rebels commanding fighter jets have destroyed two of Gaddafi's warships off the northeast coast of Ajdabiya.
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Mar 15, 2011 15:55
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