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Lascivious Sloth posted:Berlusconi did a complete 180 and was early to condemn Libya as unexpected as that was. It would send a good message if a former buddy led the attacks, and a country without much meddling in ME affairs. Middle Eastern, no, but this is North Africa. Italy has a rather dubious colonial history in the area from the Mussolini period and earlier and in fact conquered Libya as a colony - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italo-Turkish_War They are the exact opposite of 'not much history of meddling in Libyan affairs', unfortunately. feedmegin fucked around with this message at 03:21 on Mar 18, 2011 |
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Mar 18, 2011 02:42
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eggyolk posted:This is the outcome that seems most likely to me. If we truly don't want to get involved, and both sides will in no way come to agreement, then some lines may have to be drawn and enforced outside. It's no long term solution, but it seems likely given the conditions. How does this seem likely? The rebels had most of the country liberated a matter of days ago. Ghadaffi expended a bunch of troops, weapons, and the patience of his remaining loyalists retaking much of that in a similarly short period of time, and has been in the process of losing control of the sea and the air for the past few days. Now he is facing utter destruction and everyone knows it except maybe him and the desperate people who will be up against a wall when the rebels win. The bottom line is that (1) this conflict has moved at a very fast pace and it wouldn't take long for a rebel force to retake the country, and (2) the rebels are now indeed in a position to retake the country as they are re-organized, re-armed, increasingly present in the air and the sea, and are up against an already demoralized army that is about to experience devastating air strikes and mass desertions, and will additionally no longer be able to block the rebels' use of heavy weaponry through the threat of air strikes (which was what allowed them to bombard rebel cities from afar with their own unopposed heavy weaponry and make the recent gains they did). Mr Plow fucked around with this message at 02:48 on Mar 18, 2011 |
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Mar 18, 2011 02:44
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Nuclearmonkee posted:Yeah I'm pretty sure all of CQ's pilots are going to have a hand on the ejection handle at all times once they hear about this. Implying they will even get radar contact before a missile is launched :3
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Mar 18, 2011 02:48
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Once the Libyan ground radar confirms that we have fighters patrolling, I wouldn't be surprised if CQ keeps the air force grounded and tries to hide the planes in bunkers or something.
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Mar 18, 2011 02:50
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I imagine most of the Libyan planes will be blown up in their hangars. I wonder if the French Air Force and the RAF can do this with minimal US support. We can provide the Naval patrols, they can do the flying. It'd be nice to see the Euros take the lead here, contrary to what Lindsey Graham thinks.
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Mar 18, 2011 02:51
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Darth123123 posted:You actually think there will be any sustained air-air? Things will be done in hours. Without any dog fights ala WWII. If the UK is going to take part in enforcing the no-fly zone - and our PM has certainly been vocal enough about it - that basically means Eurofighters operating off a land base nearby, possibly somewhere in the Middle East since this has local backing. We retired the last of our Harriers a few months back, and frankly they were old enough that the Libyans might actually be a match for them :P. France still has carrier jets but not many, so I'd expect them to want to use a land base too. I don't anticipate dogfights or anything but we, too, have BVR missiles. I'd expect a few Libyan jets to mysteriously blow up without warning thanks to missiles fired out of range of their 70s-vintage radars before they get the message.
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Mar 18, 2011 02:52
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feedmegin posted:If the UK is going to take part in enforcing the no-fly zone - and our PM has certainly been vocal enough about it - that basically means Eurofighters operating off a land base nearby, possibly somewhere in the Middle East since this has local backing. We retired the last of our Harriers a few months back, and frankly they were old enough that the Libyans might actually be a match for them :P. France still has carrier jets but not many, so I'd expect them to want to use a land base too. They still have an airbase on Malta? It was good enough to serve as an airbase against Rommel, so it should be good enough to serve against Gaddafi.
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Mar 18, 2011 02:54
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Sinteres posted:I'm not going to compare you to Qaddafi, but you have some ego to think that disagreeing with your opinion = being out of touch with reality. I'm not even sure I oppose what's going to happen, since we haven't heard a real plan. I don't think there's anything wrong with voicing a few reservations as the US starts a third (admittedly much smaller than the other two) war in the broader Middle East. I'm the Gaddafi in the OP! I can't see how a NFZ could be any worse than what would happen if it wasn't sanctioned and the rebels were left to fend for themselves. Gaddafi would massacre his own people en masse with no reservations, to hold power. feedmegin posted:Middle Eastern, no, but this is North Africa. Italy has a rather dubious colonial history in the area from the Mussolini period and earlier and in fact conquered Libya as a colony - I suppose it's better that Italy has been an avid supporter of Libya in current history and has condemned Gaddafi amid the recent revolution though. It does give the NFZ more credence. WhiteHowler posted:Once the Libyan ground radar confirms that we have fighters patrolling, I wouldn't be surprised if CQ keeps the air force grounded and tries to hide the planes in bunkers or something. This- or the pilots and airforce abandon the bases knowing what is coming and the captability of UN forces. Lascivious Sloth fucked around with this message at 02:56 on Mar 18, 2011 |
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Mar 18, 2011 02:54
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Mr Plow posted:How does this seem likely? Thank you, this is a much more optimistic outlook. Forgive the pessmism.
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Mar 18, 2011 02:58
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New Division posted:They still have an airbase on Malta? It was good enough to serve as an airbase against Rommel, so it should be good enough to serve against Gaddafi. Apparently we handed RAF Luqa back to them in 1979, but it's still a military airport. I imagine we could use it if we asked nicely, or earlier in this thread I pointed out that Crete (I think) was in not too horrible distance from Libya. That said, somewhere like Egypt would doubtless be far more congenial if it could be arranged.
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Mar 18, 2011 02:59
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feedmegin posted:If the UK is going to take part in enforcing the no-fly zone - and our PM has certainly been vocal enough about it - that basically means Eurofighters operating off a land base nearby, possibly somewhere in the Middle East since this has local backing. We retired the last of our Harriers a few months back, and frankly they were old enough that the Libyans might actually be a match for them :P. France still has carrier jets but not many, so I'd expect them to want to use a land base too. Hague has already confirmed that NATO assets are ready to enforce the No Fly Zone. This was confirmed before the resolution even went through - I don't know where the bases are but it's already been established that France and the UK will be enforcing the No Fly Zone pretty much straight off the bat. I really don't get how Gadaffi can hope to put up any sort of fight after this resolution has gone through. Owlkill fucked around with this message at 03:07 on Mar 18, 2011 |
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Mar 18, 2011 03:01
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There will be no sustained air-to-air campaign. We're talking about Eurofighters and Rafales against poorly maintained and crewed MiG-23s, MiG-21s and Mirage F-1s. This will probably be the most one-sided aerial warfare campaign to ever occur in history (unless someone else has an example like F-22s attacking biplanes in some country).
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Mar 18, 2011 03:03
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ChaosSamusX posted:There will be no sustained air-to-air campaign. We're talking about Eurofighters and Rafales against poorly maintained and crewed MiG-23s, MiG-21s and Mirage F-1s. Biplanes would actually fare better. Barely any radar signature, see...
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Mar 18, 2011 03:09
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If Gaddafi now takes a defensive stance and withdraws his troops, taking no offensive action against rebel held cities, then what? Let's say his army holes up in Sirte and the rebels try to take it, bombing the defending troops within the city can hardly be considered "protecting civilians". It would be blatantly intervening on the rebels' side and pretty much declaring war on Libya of which Gaddafi is still considered to be the legitimate ruler (except by France). And it would be a war of aggression, thus against international law. I guess the way the UN troops can help the rebels would be to bomb Gaddafi forces when they attack a city, but look the other way when rebels do it, hypocritical, since civilians are going to suffer either way, but legal. Possibly there is going to be a stalemate and ceasefire and we are left with a divided Libya and a very uncertain situation for a long time. Best case on the other hand would be of course most of the remaining loyal forces realizing, before too long, that no victory is possible any time soon. And getting rid of Gaddafi themselves is the first step to open a dialogue for a new Libya. I feel there are so many ways this could turn out and so many ways it can go wrong that I don't know what to think. Except it's good that something is being done at least, I guess. Whatever, it's way late, I will go to bed and see what happens tomorrow.
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Mar 18, 2011 03:10
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Gaddafi could concievably withdraw his forces to cities he already firmly holds now that a NFZ resolution has passed, dig in his forces among civilians, and play a waiting game. The hope would be that a Western bomb or missle strikes an orphanage and causes a public outrage, or rebel soldiers commit a massacre that discredits them. Maybe they even get lucky and down a western jet with SAMs. It's probably a better plan than staying in siege positions outside rebel cities where Western jets can easily target them. But Gaddafi might think such a plan is too cowardly or something like that.
New Division fucked around with this message at 03:19 on Mar 18, 2011 |
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Mar 18, 2011 03:16
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^^^^ If he withdraws his forces the people in the cities that he crushed before will be able to rise up, it was only this heavy deployment that allowed him to keep Tripoli.
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Mar 18, 2011 03:18
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The smart thing for Ghadaffi to do would be to hunker down and try to wait everyone out. Luckily, Ghadaffi does not strike me as a smart man.
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Mar 18, 2011 03:19
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Competition posted:^^^^ If he withdraws his forces the people in the cities that he crushed before will be able to rise up, it was only this heavy deployment that allowed him to keep Tripoli. I said withdraw forces into cities he still holds. Hide the heavy equipment in civilian garages, keep troops in public quarters with civilians etc. Basically make it so that any airstrike will likely kill civilians. The troops could be there to keep the population suppressed, and any Western strike has the potential to alienate Libyans by killing dozens of civilians. Basically use your people as a human shield and dare the West to shoot the hostage. It's a pretty lovely tactic morally, but it can be an effective way to keep your forces from getting bombed. (Unless the US,UK, and France are willing to risk killing lots of civvies) New Division fucked around with this message at 03:23 on Mar 18, 2011 |
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Mar 18, 2011 03:21
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That would allow him to be outmaneuvered by the opposition on the ground.
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Mar 18, 2011 03:23
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If he bunkers down, he's just as hosed as if he decides to just roll out and go for it. His army is stretched thin as it. If he tries to garrison everything he controls, he'll be vulnerable to rebel attacks and internal insurrections. If he withdraws to what he can control easily, he loses everything outside his safe zone.
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Mar 18, 2011 03:25
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Owlkill posted:So aside from France and Britain ( Apparently Canada is sending 6 CF-18's to help enforce the NFZ.
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Mar 18, 2011 03:27
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) who's going to actually be enforcing this no-fly zone, and carrying out these strikes?
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New Division posted:I said withdraw forces into cities he still holds. Hide the heavy equipment in civilian garages, keep troops in public quarters with civilians etc. Basically make it so that any airstrike will likely kill civilians. The troops could be there to keep the population suppressed, and any Western strike has the potential to alienate Libyans by killing dozens of civilians. He'll be encircled by rebels and people in the cities will still rise up, not to mention that this resolution gives vague as gently caress allowance for foreign forces to intervene and this includes intelligence groups and special forces blowing up the garages and basically picking off troops allowing the rebels to gain a foothold. This is if you even think that most the troops will stay loyal once the cities start to fall, the foreign bombs destroy a good portion of the hardware, and the rebels rise up everywhere.
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Mar 18, 2011 03:28
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Bugsmasher posted:Apparently Canada is sending 6 CF-18's to help enforce the NFZ. The beautiful artificial reefs they create when they fall apart over the ocean will be Free Libya's foremost tourist attraction. 
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Mar 18, 2011 03:28
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Xandu posted:That would allow him to be outmaneuvered by the opposition on the ground. I don't forsee the rebels making an offensive push into Western Libya in the immediate future, but in the long run you're right. I'm just outlining the best option Gaddafi has now that the West is involved.
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Mar 18, 2011 03:29
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Slantedfloors posted:If he bunkers down, he's just as hosed as if he decides to just roll out and go for it. I'd agree with this. Where Ghaddaffi hasn't been able to use artillery and planes he's been consistently beaten. Even when he moves in with armored vehicles and tanks he gets thrown back repeatedly. There's no way in hell he'll be able to use his most effective weapons against a coalition force willing to go air to ground.
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Mar 18, 2011 03:30
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Slantedfloors posted:The beautiful artificial reefs they create when they fall apart over the ocean will be Free Libya's foremost tourist attraction. Man, do we have a single military aircraft that doesn't have that problem? (I hear out former fleet of Sea Kings is now a habitat for some of the remaining Cod in the Atlantic)
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Mar 18, 2011 03:33
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People seem to think he has zero support inside Libya. I find this hard to believe. In fact, I'm pretty sure that he has a very loyal and robust patronage regime that relies heavily on family and tribal connections. There are almost certainly plenty of "haves" who received significant benefits and oil riches under the regime who still see it in their best interest to maintain the status quo and many people who are beholden or related to these "haves." No matter what you want to think, there are going to be plenty of angry and pissed off Libyans who will not be happy to lose even their relatively insignificant power and privilege. Whether it is the right thing to do or not, don't think there won't be severe repercussions and general nasty-ness from any intervention.
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Mar 18, 2011 03:37
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ChaosSamusX posted:Man, do we have a single military aircraft that doesn't have that problem? (I hear out former fleet of Sea Kings is now a habitat for some of the remaining Cod in the Atlantic)
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Mar 18, 2011 03:37
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Bugsmasher posted:Apparently Canada is sending 6 CF-18's to help enforce the NFZ. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CG5Yrno8z1o ...eh.
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Mar 18, 2011 03:41
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People seem to think he has zero support inside Libya. I find this hard to believe. In fact, I'm pretty sure that he has a very loyal and robust patronage regime that relies heavily on family and tribal connections. There are almost certainly plenty of "haves" who received significant benefits and oil riches under the regime who still see it in their best interest to maintain the status quo and many people who are beholden or related to these "haves." No matter what you want to think, there are going to be plenty of angry and pissed off Libyans who will not be happy to lose even their relatively insignificant power and privilege. Whether it is the right thing to do or not, don't think there won't be severe repercussions and general nasty-ness from any intervention especially in cities which contain this loyal base like Sirt or Tripoli.
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Mar 18, 2011 03:42
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Nenonen posted:Hey guys they're broadcasting live feed from the Canadian airbase and they are taking off right now--- drat, we should start dropping our planes on the Libyan Army.
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Mar 18, 2011 03:43
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MayakovskyMarmite posted:People seem to think he has zero support inside Libya. I find this hard to believe. In fact, I'm pretty sure that he has a very loyal and robust patronage regime that relies heavily on family and tribal connections. There are almost certainly plenty of "haves" who received significant benefits and oil riches under the regime who still see it in their best interest to maintain the status quo and many people who are beholden or related to these "haves." No matter what you want to think, there are going to be plenty of angry and pissed off Libyans who will not be happy to lose even their relatively insignificant power and privilege. Whether it is the right thing to do or not, don't think there won't be severe repercussions and general nasty-ness from any intervention especially in cities which contain this loyal base like Sirt or Tripoli. He does have his loyalists but there were risings in every city, there have been huge desertions from the military and he literally had to ship in mercenaries from Africa to put down the uprisings in his own powerbases. He isn't coming out of this alive.
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Mar 18, 2011 03:47
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Slantedfloors posted:The smart thing for Ghadaffi to do would be to hunker down and try to wait everyone out. I predict self inflicted gunshot.
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Mar 18, 2011 03:51
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Competition posted:He does have his loyalists but there were risings in every city, there have been huge desertions from the military and he literally had to ship in mercenaries from Africa to put down the uprisings in his own powerbases. I think the African mercenaries angle was vastly overstated. Gaddafi gets a good deal of his support from black tribemens that live in the Southern deserts of Libya. I'm sure Chadians, Malians, and other Africans got brought in to bolster his forces, but his forces are still mostly Libyan. He still probably isn't coming out alive though.
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Mar 18, 2011 03:57
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Cartouche posted:I predict self inflicted gunshot. To their horror, his generals and close aides will find him with seventeen self-inflicted gunshots to the chest and face, plus three additional self-inflicted gunshots to the back of the neck. Slantedfloors fucked around with this message at 04:02 on Mar 18, 2011 |
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Mar 18, 2011 03:57
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Slantedfloors posted:drat, we should start dropping our planes on the Libyan Army. Bombs do more than that.
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Mar 18, 2011 03:58
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Slantedfloors posted:To their horror, his generals and close aides will find him with seventeen self-inflicted gunshots to the chest and face, plus three additional self-inflicted gunshots to the back of the neck. I really hope we get some good coverage of his last gems of wisdom. edit: I wonder what Dear Leader Jung Il thinks of current world events. He's been quiet of late.  VVVVVV Cartouche fucked around with this message at 04:07 on Mar 18, 2011 |
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Mar 18, 2011 04:04
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Slantedfloors posted:To their horror, his generals and aides will find him with seventeen self-inflicted gunshots to the chest and face, plus several additional self-inflicted gunshots to the back of the neck. Worst case of suicide I ever saw. I have to wonder how Muslims in some of these European countries that have had problematic relationships with their minority groups are going to react to this.
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Mar 18, 2011 04:05
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Simtex posted:You would think the US Air Force would be chomping at the bit to deploy F-22's in an operation that has a legitimate shot of seeing air to air combat. I don't know, there might be rain in the forecast.
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Mar 18, 2011 04:16
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farraday posted:Worst case of suicide I ever saw. The Muslim hive-mind's anger will be fierce when this ripples through.
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Mar 18, 2011 04:21
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