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Narmi posted:Ham, I know the MB said they weren't going to field a candidate for the presidency, and the I'd imagine the NDP likely won't be successful either (unless they run someone under a different group), so what does this mean for the two guys (ElBaradei and Moussa) who seem to be the two biggest contenders with a chance of winning the presidency? Does ElBaradei even have a party he can run under? From what I recall, Moussa was pro-NDP, so would he get support from them? They don't need the position of the president if they control the parliament, and both Amr Moussa and Baradei aren't actually affiliated to any real parties. And no, there's no way an NDP candidate can take the presidency. quote:During the protests, they joined in pretty late in the game and kept their heads down. Also, everyone who was asked about them said they weren't worried about them making any power plays because they would get at most 10% of the vote. It seems odd that they're making a power grab all things considered. You have to consider that there's Cairo, and then there's Egypt.
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Mar 20, 2011 20:11
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Stroh M.D. posted:This may look off-topic, but it actually has some relevance for the Libyan conflict since people who sympathize with this movement has started to express clear opinions against the intervention. To them, it's simple: they don't deserve our help and it will only result in more refugees. Wouldn't increased stability, more democratic representation and increased economic mobility in the immigrants' home country actually reduce the need for them to immigrate?
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Mar 20, 2011 20:14
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t3ch3 posted:Still, it appears that the likely result of this "Yes" vote will be a new government with a large representation from the Muslim Brotherhood and it will be very interesting to see how the US and Israel react to that. I'm more worried about how groups like Al Qaeda and their ilk react that the group that they have been denouncing for so long for having a hopeless peaceful plan to get power managed to do what they couldn't. I having a feeling their reaction won't be a change of heart on the use of violence.
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Mar 20, 2011 20:15
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My guess is that Syria will be about as terrible as Iran. What's interesting is that Lebanon was the country which introduced the Security Council resolution for the no-fly zone and air strikes in Libya. I wonder how that's assessed in Damascus.
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Mar 20, 2011 20:17
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tetsul posted:I'm more worried about how groups like Al Qaeda and their ilk react that the group that they have been denouncing for so long for having a hopeless peaceful plan to get power managed to do what they couldn't. I having a feeling their reaction won't be a change of heart on the use of violence. Zawahiri will probably throw a tantrum and Adam Gadahn will have to talk him down for a couple of hours, then they'll all have halal pudding cups in the nice hotel where ISI is keeping them. Vir, that was before the March 14 government resigned or after? I cannot keep the timeline straight on this one.
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Mar 20, 2011 20:17
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Young Freud posted:Wouldn't increased stability, more democratic representation and increased economic mobility in the immigrants' home country actually reduce the need for them to immigrate? From what I gathered, said racist pricks don't believe democracy is an option. They think it will be a new Somalia due too tribal differences and that an oppressed nation under Gadaffi is preferable. Oh, did I mention they really don't care if this means the massacre of hundreds of thousands of innocent Libyans? Or that the sentiment that we should just nuke them all for making a fuss has surfaced more times than I can count? Stroh M.D. fucked around with this message at 20:20 on Mar 20, 2011 |
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Mar 20, 2011 20:18
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I'd say that conditions in Syria will remain mysterious unless and until they gain enough ground that foreign media feel comfortable getting in to rebel controlled areas as happened in Libya. Otherwise we're likely to see the same sort of inconsistent internet leaks without any ability to judge how things are progressing,
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Mar 20, 2011 20:20
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QuentinCompson posted:Vir, that was before the March 14 government resigned or after? I cannot keep the timeline straight on this one. After, though March 8th (mainly Amal and Hezbollah in this case) are happy to see Gaddafi go.
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Mar 20, 2011 20:27
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gulfnews.com posted:Dara'a, Syria: Hundreds of protesters set alight to the courthouse, other buildings and cars in the southern Syrian town of Dara'a on Sunday during violent protests, an AFP correspondent said. http://gulfnews.com/news/region/syria/syria-protesters-set-fire-to-courthouse-1.780073 Sounds like it's getting nasty enough to me...
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Mar 20, 2011 20:29
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Daraa appears to be a regional governmental center, so it's important in that sese, but it is also tiny. I think you'd really need to see problems in major cities like Damascus, Alleppo, or Homs before upgrading this to major based on Syria's past ability to crush even large amounts of internal dissent.
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Mar 20, 2011 20:35
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QuentinCompson posted:Vir, that was before the March 14 government resigned or after? I cannot keep the timeline straight on this one. Stroh M.D. posted:From what I gathered, said racist pricks don't believe democracy is an option. They think it will be a new Somalia due too tribal differences and that an oppressed nation under Gadaffi is preferable.
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Mar 20, 2011 20:35
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Vir posted:It's actually after, so I guess even Hezbollah is against Gaddafi now. But Lebanon and Libya has had a bad relationship for a long time. For some reason I thought the resolution we were was in regards to Syria. Head's all whacked. Guess that's not really a surprise, then.
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Mar 20, 2011 20:40
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So erm, I've been away for a day or so, has Gaddafi surrendered?
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Mar 20, 2011 20:42
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A Tartan Tory posted:So erm, I've been away for a day or so, has Gaddafi surrendered? Airstrikes have bene ongoing. Libya ha supped it's claim of civilian deaths to 64. Libyan forces still engaged around and in Misrata. Free Libyan militias are advancing from Benghazi. Libyan Armed forces claim to be instituting a new cease fire as of 44 minutes ago. International support and complaint continues to trickle in. Ghaddaffi status: Still crazy.
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Mar 20, 2011 20:45
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A Tartan Tory posted:So erm, I've been away for a day or so, has Gaddafi surrendered? Nope. He claims to have issued a ceasefire, but... I wouldn't take that very seriously.
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Mar 20, 2011 20:45
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Interesting that Syria - which Hezbollah is supposed to be backed by - is against the no-fly zone and is afraid of the popular uprisings spreading to themselves. Seems Hezbollah hates Gaddafi more than they like the Syrian regime. This could have implications for Iran as well, since Hezbollah and Syria are considered to be allies of the current regime in Iran. If they break away from each other, Ahmadinejad and co may no longer be able to depend on foreign "mercenaries" to help put down uprising in Iran.
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Mar 20, 2011 20:46
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Vir posted:It's actually after, so I guess even Hezbollah is against Gaddafi now. But Lebanon and Libya has had a bad relationship for a long time. If you go too far to the right and continue, you end up too far to the left. It's all a nice little circle. There has been some hilarious unwilling cooperation between the populist Swedish Democrats (far right by Swedish standards, sorta) and the Left Party (called themselves the Communistic Left Party 'til the wall fell) in our parliament lately. They hate each others guts so fierce it burns. But they can still vote in tandem against privatisation of a few government-owned companies. And although I haven't heard them voice their opinions about the intervention, I bet they will end up being more or less opposed to it. The left because they loathe NATO and the US. The far-right because they are generally isolationist and the refugee-thing. Stroh M.D. fucked around with this message at 20:53 on Mar 20, 2011 |
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Mar 20, 2011 20:49
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Stroh M.D. posted:Nope. He claims to have issued a ceasefire, but... I wouldn't take that very seriously. Well of course he claims but as he has been telling the rest of the world is he is not the leader of Libya. What armed forces or government can he command if they are all commanded by the people? Which means that the real perpetrators of war crimes against the people, are the people themselves!
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Mar 20, 2011 20:51
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Vir posted:Interesting that Syria - which Hezbollah is supposed to be backed by - is against the no-fly zone and is afraid of the popular uprisings spreading to themselves. Seems Hezbollah hates Gaddafi more than they like the Syrian regime. It's a complicated relationship. Syria and Iran are backers of Hezbollah, and supply it with weapons and money, but Hezbollah is still an independent political party, and it's capable making its own decisions. This is also a circumstance where they can play Iran and Syria off each other, since Iran has also backed the revolution against Gaddafi. edit: the other thing is that Mikati still hasn't formed a government, so March 8th isn't really in power yet.
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Mar 20, 2011 20:52
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According to Twitter the protesters have torched the Baath Party headquarters in Daraa. Twitter though, so take that as you will.quote:iyad_elbaghdadi Baath Party headquarters torched in Syrian city of Daraa. #Syria Based on what I've been reading, al-Assad has been spinning the violence as an overreaction on the part of the local governor. They've also made a couple smaller concessions – freeing kids who put up pro-democracy graffiti, for example – so they seem like they're trying to head off any major flare-ups. Then there's stuff like this: quote:Khatibmo Eyewitnesses say Deraa is no longer under the control of Syrian authorities, Please confirm. #syria So who loving knows. Kenning fucked around with this message at 20:58 on Mar 20, 2011 |
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Mar 20, 2011 20:55
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It's ok, the Libyan air strikes will keep the attention away from the killings in Syria, Yemen and Bahrain, for the mean time. Libya only got attention when there was no more news coming from Egypt, things had been brewing for a while before the media's full attention changed.
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Mar 20, 2011 20:58
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Interesting post of the LibyaFeb17.com site, a USAF aircraft warning a Libyan vessel not to leave port: http://audioboo.fm/boos/307814-usaf-ec-130j-steel-74-transmitting-on-6877-0-khz-libya-20-march-2011
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Mar 20, 2011 21:02
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Pentagon briefing on Libya happening now http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/42182575#42182575
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Mar 20, 2011 21:04
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Brown Moses posted:Interesting post of the LibyaFeb17.com site, a USAF aircraft warning a Libyan vessel not to leave port: "If you attempt to leave, you will be destroyed immediately. For your own safety, do not attempt to leave port" Is that the military version of "stop, or I'll shoot"? Pretty intimidating anyhow. If I was on that boat, I'd take safety first and jump ship.
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Mar 20, 2011 21:05
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Xandu posted:Pentagon briefing on Libya happening now
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Mar 20, 2011 21:09
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Xandu posted:Pentagon briefing on Libya happening now Really want to see those slides he's been referring to.
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Mar 20, 2011 21:11
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Slave posted:"We believe his forces are suffering from a great deal of stress, isolation and confusion" From what I've heard that's exactly what they want, they are trying to break their moral so they either join the rebels or flee. They want that to happen as quickly as possible as well.
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Mar 20, 2011 21:11
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News from Misrata :quote:Three tanks have been destroyed in Misratah and one tank has been disabled by revolutionary youth. Currently there is one tank in the centre of the city which is moving between An Nasr Square and The Courthouse cluster. There are snipers positioned above buildings on the same street that the tank is in. There are many other tanks at the entrances of the city
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Mar 20, 2011 21:11
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Stroh M.D. posted:"If you attempt to leave, you will be destroyed immediately. For your own safety, do not attempt to leave port" I wonder if the transmission is deliberately altered to sound more intimidating.
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Mar 20, 2011 21:13
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Man the pentagon press briefing is pretty hilarious from the aspect of desperately tap dancing around how much these airs trikes are to support the opposition vs protecting civilians. He finally gave up and just said he couldn't answer at this time.
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Mar 20, 2011 21:14
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They attacked an airbase near Misrata, think they completely wiped Libyan air defense and radar, 124 total tomahawk missiles, coalition forces (including navy and marines) bombed Libyan mechanized ground forces 10m south of Benghazi and seem to have succeeded in stopping movement of Gaddafi's ground forces, they are shifting to a "consistent air presence" over Libya. Says they are not going after Gaddafi specifically. Says they are not supporting the rebel forces (nor coordinating attacks with the rebel forces), but stopping advancement/attacks on civilian positions. Still seems like a potential for mission creep. No indications of any civilian casualties.
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Mar 20, 2011 21:14
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Xandu posted:Says they are not supporting the rebel forces (nor coordinating attacks with the rebel forces), but stopping advancement/attacks on civilian positions. Still seems like a potential for mission creep. He actually did slip up at one point and say that they would bomb Gaddafi's forces if they were encroaching on the opposition.
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Mar 20, 2011 21:16
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Libyan army orders immediate cease-fire.
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Mar 20, 2011 21:16
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farraday posted:Man the pentagon press briefing is pretty hilarious from the aspect of desperately tap dancing around how much these airs trikes are to support the opposition vs protecting civilians. He finally gave up and just said he couldn't answer at this time. He really needs to choose his wording better. When they asked why the units advancing towards Benghazi were targeted, he said ti was because they were advancing towards Benghazi. Should've just said they posed a credible threat to civilians and thus had to be taken out.
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Mar 20, 2011 21:17
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Ham posted:Libyan army orders immediate cease-fire again. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Mar 20, 2011 21:18
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Just said that they haven't decided (or rather, refuse to specify) whether or not they would stop attacking Gaddafi's forces if they stopped advancing. It seems to me the US and allies haven't decided their end goal yet.
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Mar 20, 2011 21:18
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Jut posted:fixed Is this like the third time?
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Mar 20, 2011 21:19
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I know for a fact the US have a plan A, and several plan B's they are considering depending on what happens next.
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Mar 20, 2011 21:19
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Xandu posted:They attacked an airbase near Misrata, think they completely wiped Libyan air defense and radar, 124 total tomahawk missiles, coalition forces (including navy and marines) bombed Libyan mechanized ground forces 10m south of Benghazi and seem to have succeeded in stopping movement of Gaddafi's ground forces, they are shifting to a "consistent air presence" over Libya. Someone yesterday said that Al Jazeera, which had been blocked within the country, is now available (following the missile strikes). I never heard it confirmed. I'm hopeful that someone in the military is wise enough to understand the significance of information in this conflict, and deliberately targeted Qaddafi's jamming/scrambling hardware (whatever that might be - I know little about that stuff). Has there been any confirmation regarding this? Was there any mention of it in the press conference? Does anyone have a source that backs up the idea that AJ had been blocked, or that it is presently accessible? I believe this to be far more significant to the pro-democracy efforts than people realize, and have seen next to nothing discussed about it...
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Mar 20, 2011 21:20
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Ham posted:Libyan army orders immediate cease-fire. Slantedfloors fucked around with this message at 21:24 on Mar 20, 2011 |
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Mar 20, 2011 21:20
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