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This defection is the political equivilant of the rebels taking Sirte, if the rest are true then it'll be the equivilant of surrounding Tripoli.
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Mar 30, 2011 22:58
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Another reporter just put this on Twitter:quote:BREAKINGNEWS, Source tells me:"UK will very soon officially recognize #Libya National Transitional council." Will try to find more on this.
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Mar 30, 2011 23:02
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farraday posted:Oh he pretty much has to be doing that because otherwise there's no reason for the Brits not to drop him off at the Hague. The question is how valuable those "military secrets" are to a bombing campaign that would have difficulty justifying what was obviously an attempt to remove the leadership of the regime because of their past pronouncements on that not being the deliberate policy of the military strikes. Actually, I wonder if he may well be hoping that if he can be spared if he can provide information about previously unknown activities by Gaddafi in order to convince the international community to broaden the mandate of the mission. Essentially, hoping that he can do for the escalation of the campaign in Libya what Curveball and his (completely fabricated) information was for the push for war in Iraq. Meanwhile, the Obama administration apparently gives no fucks about things such as "checks on executive power": Clinton To Congress: Obama Would Ignore Your War Resolutions quote:The White House would forge ahead with military action in Libya even if Congress passed a resolution constraining the mission, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said during a classified briefing to House members Wednesday afternoon.
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Mar 30, 2011 23:04
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Brown Moses posted:This defection is the political equivilant of the rebels taking Sirte, if the rest are true then it'll be the equivilant of surrounding Tripoli. I think you're overselling it. The problem with mass defections is they remove from the situation people disaffected with the regime. While they may or may not have been in a position to create a coup, they are clearly the soft supporters of Qaddafi a coup would rely on to gain momentum. thefncrow posted:Actually, I wonder if he may well be hoping that if he can be spared if he can provide information about previously unknown activities by Gaddafi in order to convince the international community to broaden the mandate of the mission. Essentially, hoping that he can do for the escalation of the campaign in Libya what Curveball and his (completely fabricated) information was for the push for war in Iraq. That's a pretty interesting thought, although I'm not sure the UK could give him immunity for admitting to things he worked on with Qaddafi, they could agree not to extradite him. I'm pretty sure the WH position on this is simply an continuation of constitutional pissing match the WH and congress have had over military operations for decades. I don't think either side is going to push to further than some sniping in the press from anonymous aides. farraday fucked around with this message at 23:38 on Mar 30, 2011 |
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Mar 30, 2011 23:06
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Xandu posted:Someone asked about whether or not there was any commentary from al-Qaeda on the protests. There should be some commentary on it in here if you're interested. New issue of AQAP's english language magazine. I find this publication extremely disturbing for any number of reasons.
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Mar 30, 2011 23:15
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In the interesting if true category.quote:AlmanaraMedia: Reliable Source: #Security Brigade that was present at the gate of #Thahayba between #Tunisia and the Wazin border (#Libya) Have disappeared
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Mar 30, 2011 23:22
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"Koussa was known as Gadhafi’s “envoy of death” during the 1980s, when his intelligence service was working with other terrorist groups — including Abu Nidal and the Irish Republican Army — and engaging in assassination attempts against Libyan dissidents around the world, some of which were successful. The British Foreign Office expelled him from the Libyan embassy in London in 1980 after he approved the killing of two U.K.-based dissidents. But in later years, as Libya turned back toward the West, he was seen as having been been instrumental in helping the CIA fight al-Qaida and unravel the A.Q. Khan nuclear smuggling network." Wow, that guy has quite a past. Quite risky for him to defect, so it might say something about how worrying Gaddafi's position is to his insiders.
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Mar 30, 2011 23:28
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On the back of near simultaneous reports that American and British covert ops are on the ground in Libya we have thisquote:00:27 BBC: Senior revolutionary commander Major General Mahmoud said coalition liaison officers were working with the rebels to organise raids against pro-Gaddafi forces. He also said that revolutionaries do have a strategy, but that fighters don’t always obey orders.
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Mar 30, 2011 23:35
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thefncrow posted:Meanwhile, the Obama administration apparently gives no fucks about things such as "checks on executive power": Ugh, isn't this like double-dog daring the Republicans to try something?
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Mar 30, 2011 23:37
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farraday posted:I think you're overselling it. The problem with mass defections is they remove from the situation people disaffected with the regime. While they may or may not have been in a position to create a cop, they are clearly the soft supporters of Qaddafi a coup would rely on to gain momentum. Yeah dictators in other Arab countries have been perfectly happy to just boot out their entire government themselves. Everyone non directly related to Ghadaffi is just a meaningless pawn to him.
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Mar 30, 2011 23:37
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Rumors indicate Gaddafi is about to lose the speaker of the Libyan Congress (not sure how much that title is worth, but al Zawi had some public facetime after the bombing started), his intelligence chief and a slew of diplomatic cadre to the West. Edit: Rumors that Saif has fled to an unknown location but those are just rumors, after all. MothraAttack fucked around with this message at 23:46 on Mar 30, 2011 |
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Mar 30, 2011 23:43
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Fintilgin posted:Ugh, isn't this like double-dog daring the Republicans to try something? You know what I'd kind of like to see them muck about more with this. Then Obama can call out this Congress as a bunch of phonies jockeying for reelection and never accomplishing anything. I'm sure their approval ratings are way worse than the President's to begin with and they wouldn't want the negative attention tossed back on them.
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Mar 30, 2011 23:46
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thefncrow posted:Meanwhile, the Obama administration apparently gives no fucks about things such as "checks on executive power": The position of every single president since that was passed is that it's unconstitutional, so it's not a surprising answer.
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Mar 30, 2011 23:56
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Further updates on the defection/asylum front.quote:00:43 Almanara Media reports that 32 Libyan Diplomatic cars have crossed the Libyan-Tunisian border into Tunisia. There is news that the following Libyan diplomats are in Tunisia making plans to defect and leave to Europe:
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Mar 30, 2011 23:59
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Slave posted:Yeah dictators in other Arab countries have been perfectly happy to just boot out their entire government themselves. Everyone non directly related to Ghadaffi is just a meaningless pawn to him. Depends on the position. It's a bad sign when people in the security services of the country start defecting.
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Mar 31, 2011 00:02
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Slave posted:Yeah dictators in other Arab countries have been perfectly happy to just boot out their entire government themselves. Everyone non directly related to Ghadaffi is just a meaningless pawn to him. The people who have real power, and "the government" (not counting the dictator) aren't usually the same people.
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Mar 31, 2011 00:03
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Xandu posted:Depends on the position. It's a bad sign when people in the security services of the country start defecting. If security chiefs had actual power and were upset with the regime they wouldn't be defecting. There are lots of ways this could go now, but a series of public defection + increased reliance on military controlled through familial ties suggests incoming purge to me.
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Mar 31, 2011 00:05
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thefncrow posted:Actually, I wonder if he may well be hoping that if he can be spared if he can provide information about previously unknown activities by Gaddafi in order to convince the international community to broaden the mandate of the mission. Essentially, hoping that he can do for the escalation of the campaign in Libya what Curveball and his (completely fabricated) information was for the push for war in Iraq. I think the way politics is in the US right now a vote would be superficial and pointless. I get the distinct impression the majority of republicans, or people in general, dont know exactly what is happening in Libya, but are content with just saying the opposite of Obama.
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Mar 31, 2011 00:13
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Wow, I remember there was a lot of talk in the thread about a week ago about how Gadaffi's forces were done, they were going to disintegrate, and then it'd be a wonderful little jaunty picnic in Tripoli. Now the loyalists are whooping rear end again. I wanted that to be true, I really did. Go Benghazi, boo Tripoli. 
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Mar 31, 2011 00:18
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Nombres posted:Wow, I remember there was a lot of talk in the thread about a week ago about how Gadaffi's forces were done, they were going to disintegrate, and then it'd be a wonderful little jaunty picnic in Tripoli. Now the loyalists are whooping rear end again. I wanted it to be true too, but realistically civil wars usually take longer than that unless the west is willing to go all  and just go around basically obliterating Gaddafi's military to help the rebels.
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Mar 31, 2011 00:26
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Nuclearmonkee posted:I wanted it to be true too, but realistically civil wars usually take longer than that unless the west is willing to go all Even when the United States does that, the civil wars tends to go on for years in one form or another. It's really hard to kill an insurgency with "tactical air strikes".
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Mar 31, 2011 00:27
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Regardless of how effective Mousa Kousa's defection is in inciting a coup, this is priceless.quote:NicRobertsonCNN: In hotel, Musa Kusa's resignatn/defectn seems to hv taken govt officials & minders by surprise. Sms they believd he was really comng back.
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Mar 31, 2011 00:38
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farraday posted:Regardless of how effective Mousa Kousa's defection is in inciting a coup, this is priceless. I'd bet they're busy trying to figure out how al-Qaeda managed to get hallucinogens into the Nescafé of someone so close to the Brotherly Leader.
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Mar 31, 2011 00:50
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Not exactly the NYT but it may be true:quote:- “Army stops arms shipment smuggled by Nigerian elements from Libya…”
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Mar 31, 2011 00:55
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Seems pretty obvious that the ex-Foreign Minister told the UK "the following 5 man are working directly for Gadaffi in an intelligence role" which is why they got kicked out. They'll probably be a whole slew of guys with diplomatic immunity getting kicked out of western countries. With all the SUV's and pickup's running around on both sides, Steve Jackson should re-release Car Wars as Car Wars: Libya Uprising Edition.
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Mar 31, 2011 01:22
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So much negativity lately. It's barely a setback for the rebels. They retreat because heavy armor is pushing into those cities.. What do you expect. The NFZ will take weeks to weed out the Gads, this stuff doesn't happen overnight unless you want civilian and rebel deaths to mount. Major influential positions of power are defecting. This could start a major tumble of defectors. Although I think Gad will learn quickly and start threatening people in power with the safety of their families. I predict we'll see the rebels start to organize effectively in the coming weeks with US intel on the ground to oversee the rebel forces, and there is a good chance more and more special units are being deployed west as the east is relatively safe compared to how it was weeks ago. Then we'll start seeing precise hits on Gad forces allowing the rebels to push forward. All speculation of course, but it's pretty consistent with how things have played out. Lascivious Sloth fucked around with this message at 01:30 on Mar 31, 2011 |
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Mar 31, 2011 01:26
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Google News is feeding me a lot of news that reads, "Obama authorizes covert operations in Libya." That's ... the opposite of covert, right? When you tell everyone you're doing it?
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Mar 31, 2011 01:45
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Don't know if it has already been mentioned, but it looks like the CIA is getting involved in this one. I'm not sure if there is anyway to say that without inviting a  response.Source: http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/03/30/libya.war/index.html?hpt=T1 Highlights below quote:The CIA is operating in Libya to help the United States increase its "military and political understanding" of the situation, a U.S. intelligence source said Wednesday.
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Mar 31, 2011 01:46
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Speculation is boring and not grounded in good solid facts. Hey, you know what's fun? Rumor! quote:AlmanaraMedia Reports of a split within the officers of #Khamis Battalion in the city of #Kufra and joined the #Revolution || #Libya In Syrian news, it sounds like Bashar's non-reform reform speech failed to quell the populace for some reason. Who could have expected such a surprising turn of events?
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Mar 31, 2011 01:48
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dj_clawson posted:Google News is feeding me a lot of news that reads, "Obama authorizes covert operations in Libya." The authorization order was made weeks ago, before the UNSCR and was just now leaked by someone to the Guardian. I highly doubt it was a purposeful leak from the administration. And before all the realpolitik pragmatists in the thread jump all over this point, you're incredibly naive if you thought the President would not authorize CIA action in Libya. This is de rigeur for the executive. The only surprising thing is that there wasn't already a blanket authorization on covert actions in Libya.
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Mar 31, 2011 01:49
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Salo posted:As in, if things were looking good for the coalition and the rebels, the Republicans would push Obama on his lack of strong leadership and not laying out a plan for taking out Gaddafi himself. If things went bad, they would jump on the anti-executive powers bandwagon and question Obama on why he did not ask for Congressional approval. So what you are saying is, politics is all about making the most out of public opinion for your own personal gain? Welcome to the hosed up 21st century, where media and democracy make a solid dictatorship look like a desirable option. My personal prediction: Obamas second term, if it happens, will be a close one, even after a retard like Bush made it. The People are incredibly stupid and democracy is more and more becoming a bad idea. I wish I could present a better alternative, but for now we have to bow to the Murdochs of this world (which includes certain oral favors). P.S.: I am german. That's the country with the Bush/Kohl copycat bitch loving the useless plebs. P.P.S.: I am living in Chile. When people ask where I'm from, I pretend not to understand.
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Mar 31, 2011 03:04
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t3ch3 posted:The authorization order was made weeks ago, before the UNSCR and was just now leaked by someone to the Guardian. I highly doubt it was a purposeful leak from the administration. Yeah, it's technically news but would be more surprising if it wasn't happening.
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Mar 31, 2011 03:29
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Good news everyone, the intervention in Libya won't cost the US taxpayers a dime.quote:feb17libya: Air strikes continue in eastern Tripoli as Libyan State TV says UAE & Qatar are funding the attacks http://t.co/UVhED53 #Feb17 #Libya This has come up a few times and it may actually be relevant. quote:ChangeInLibya: I have confirmation that the jamming station in Tripoli was bombed by the coalition today #libya #feb17 Non state news in Libya was reportedly being jammed, and this obviously would be a strike which was supposed to end such jamming. Standard twitter warnings apply. In other news. Cairo Revolution Finds New Target: Free Market More grist for LF.
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Mar 31, 2011 03:31
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farraday posted:Good news everyone, the intervention in Libya won't cost the US taxpayers a dime. That would be so metal. My only serious concern about this was how much money it was costing.
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Mar 31, 2011 03:34
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Space Monster posted:That would be so metal. My only serious concern about this was how much money it was costing. If you'll notice, the claim Qatar and the UAE are funding it comes from the Libyan State Media. I would suggest some skepticism of their reporting in this incident, although the part about ghost and Djinn fighting for Khaddafi was obviously true. From Syria quote:SyriaProtest: #Syria Just in: Electricity out in #Latakia #Lattakia heavy gunshots heard Latakia, of course, has been one of the major centers on protests and violence after Deraa. farraday fucked around with this message at 03:40 on Mar 31, 2011 |
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Mar 31, 2011 03:36
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farraday posted:In other news. Everyone could see this. It's been a while, but didn't Ham say that he was surprised when Elbaradei came out as a socialist? What's interesting is the top story on MarketWatch is Tax The Super Rich Now! Or Face A Revolution, which frames the revolutions in the Middle East in economic terms and how America may see similar unrest, maybe not soon, but in the near future.
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Mar 31, 2011 03:46
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Young Freud posted:What's interesting is the top story on MarketWatch is Tax The Super Rich Now! Or Face A Revolution, which frames the revolutions in the Middle East in economic terms and how America may see similar unrest, maybe not soon, but in the near future. Edit: I'm confused, is he for or against the poor? He seems to indicate he is for the poor, but keeps saying if those uppity folks get their way the country will meltdown and enter a depression. He also says if those uppity folks get their way the country won't meltdown and enter a depression. I think I understand what he's saying but the writing is just so bad I can't figure out what he's actually trying to say. Yaos fucked around with this message at 04:22 on Mar 31, 2011 |
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Mar 31, 2011 04:17
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Terrible, terrible article. You should feel awful for posting it. Fake edit: quote:Even Obama is secretly working with the GOP, will never touch his Super Rich donors.
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Mar 31, 2011 04:21
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Grayly Squirrel posted:Don't know if it has already been mentioned, but it looks like the CIA is getting involved in this one. I'm not sure if there is anyway to say that without inviting a Tinfoil? Hardly. The CIA was probably there long before we even started bombing.
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Mar 31, 2011 04:29
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Shageletic posted:Terrible, terrible article. You should feel awful for posting it.
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Mar 31, 2011 04:30
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