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farraday
Jan 10, 2007

Lower those eyebrows, young man. And the other one.
Isolationism is adorable.

In other news,

quote:

9:50pm: Libyan government rejects opposition’s conditions for ceasefire, says troops will not leave Libyan cities, according to Reuters.

They must be pissed, everyone knows declaring ceasefires is their gig and now the NTC is trying to muscle in?


In gulf news, Kuwait sentenced men convicted of spying for Iran to death.

http://www.hindustantimes.com/Kuwait-spies-ruling-a-conspiracy-Iran-FM/Article1-679993.aspx

We're seeing rising tensions between the Shia state and Sunni states in the gulf after unrest hit several of the Shia minorities in the Sunni monarchies of the region.

http://www.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/04/01/143861.html

I'm not saying it's time for everyone to panic, but if you can secure a supply of brains it will save you from having to crack open your neighbors heads to feast upon the goo inside.

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Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

It sounds like the coalition air strikes have been rather more effective today. They seemed to be co-ordinated with the rebels in the East, resulting in Brega being recaptured, and they destroyed tanks and a supply column in Misarata.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Tripolitanian just posted a few bits on the rebel army re-organisation (or probably more accurately just organisation)

quote:

Major overhaul in rebel organiz., they r now in grps of a certain # w/ commanders controlling grps + new leader of Free Libya Army
Rebels are also putting experienced fighters the front, and asking inexperienced to guard checkpnts, convoys, etc

Probably would have helped to do that a little earlier.

farraday
Jan 10, 2007

Lower those eyebrows, young man. And the other one.

Brown Moses posted:

Tripolitanian just posted a few bits on the rebel army re-organisation (or probably more accurately just organisation)


Probably would have helped to do that a little earlier.

It comes as surprising to those whose sole appreciation for revolution is ideological how revolutions actually occur. The romantic revolutionary and military organization rarely coexist well, while foreign support and military efficiency frequently go hand in hand.

More news from non Libya

Three killed, dozens injured in Oman protests

Not expecting much in Oman, but this is more unrest than we've seen there recently.

farraday fucked around with this message at 22:00 on Apr 1, 2011

Contraction mapping
Jul 4, 2007
THE NAZIS WERE SOCIALISTS

1mpper posted:

Misplaced but reasonable arguments

Look, I'm not saying that the linked reports constitute a balanced and in-depth analysis of the NTC, and obviously skepticism is warranted. No one is saying that we know everything about the NTC, only that we know some things, many of which have come from their very lips and need to be taken with a grain of salt. I cited those reports in response to Jut's claims that we know nothing about the NTC, which is false; at the very least we know who they are and where they claim to stand. As others have said, the NTC at the very least PRETENDS to give a poo poo about the Libyan people, and that is enough to lend them moral (although not necessarily material) support. If reports surface in the coming weeks that they are engaging in Contra-esque shenanigans, they will most certainly be condemned and possibly face airstrikes. But until then, protecting them from annihilation by Gadaffi is the very least we can do for the civilians they govern. If it's ok with you, I'd like to end this derail since we are basically just splitting hairs at this point.

Jut posted:

Garbage

As stated above, everyone should be taking what the NTC says with a grain of salt. That being said, the independent reports you extol confirm that the NTC has control of a military and at the very least isn't engaging in Gadaffi-style atrocities. By supporting the NTC, I'm not saying we should provide them the means (ie weapons or ground troops) to seize power. I am saying that we should give them moral support in the fight against a clearly fouler enemy. However, it behooves me to point out to you that sticking to the UNSCR effectively guarantees the success of the NTC, as only Gadaffi's forces, and not the NTC's, have committed actions that necessitate their destruction.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Video of a convoy destroyed by coalition airstrikes in Misarata:
https://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=1937525599233

Wafflecopper
Nov 27, 2004

I am a mouth, and I must scream

Brown Moses posted:

Tripolitanian just posted a few bits on the rebel army re-organisation (or probably more accurately just organisation)


Probably would have helped to do that a little earlier.

From recent news about a "newly-trained army" I'm inclined to think that the civilian rebels who are willing to follow orders have been training under the military units who defected and/or western specialists, while the more gung-ho rebels have been left to do their own thing in the meanwhile and give Gaddaffi's forces something to keep them occupied. It takes time to raise a well-organised military from nothing.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

It also sounds like soldiers who have been defecting in small groups have been reorganised into new units, and are now being deployed under new commanders.

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ
What I still don't get is why the NTC must be recognized as a sovereign government. NATO can still coordinate with rebel paramilitary leaders without such recognition. Why is it necessary to allow them to make trade agreements for control of Libyan resources? Couldn't the aid and money they receive from these deals (which is far less than the cost of a single cruise missile) just be provided by the coalition powers as part of the humanitarian aid? Wouldn't the Libyan people be better served by an elected government making such deals after stabilization of the country?

Patter Song
Mar 26, 2010

Hereby it is manifest that during the time men live without a common power to keep them all in awe, they are in that condition which is called war; and such a war as is of every man against every man.
Fun Shoe

t3ch3 posted:

What I still don't get is why the NTC must be recognized as a sovereign government.

Recognizing them means unrecognizing Qaddafi, turning him into the illegitimate actor rather than the rebels transitional government.

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ

Patter Song posted:

Recognizing them means unrecognizing Qaddafi, turning him into the illegitimate actor rather than the rebels transitional government.

Who cares? NATO's dropping bombs on Qaddafi. I hardly think turning up one's nose and saying, "Hehh you're no longer legitimate. These guys are in charge now and they're selling all your oil to Qatar!" is necessary.

Ramms+ein
Nov 11, 2003
Henshin-a-go-go, baby!
Same FB page as the destroyed convoy video Brown Moses posted above. This one is purportedly of a sniper on an adjacent rooftop in Misurata:

https://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=1921024266710

Ramms+ein
Nov 11, 2003
Henshin-a-go-go, baby!

quote:

“Asharq al-Awsat has also learned that Doctor Shikri Ghanem, the head of the national oil company, told his aides and a number of oil companies’ CEOs, that he was not satisfied with the current situation in Libya and that he did not agree with the way Gaddafi was handling the ongoing crisis. The sources added saying: “It has become clear that Gaddafi feels lonely and isolated. Even his personal behavior has changed since his last appearance on Tuesday. So far however, Gaddafi has not made any remarks or gestures that would point to his willingness to abandon or give up power. Until now, he does not seem willing to leave the country for good…”” - Asharq al-Awsat, United Kingdom

and

quote:

"Sources close to Gaddafi told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Libyan leader was speechless upon hearing the news of Musa Kusa's defection, describing Gaddafi's reaction as being one of deep shock. The sources, who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat on the condition of anonymity, claimed that Kusa travelled to Tunisia as part of an official mission on behalf of the Gaddafi regime, to carry out talks with western coalition states with the objective of finding a political solution to the current crisis. However after these talks reached a stalemate, Kusa decided to resign from his post as Libyan foreign minister, defecting from the Gaddafi regime, in the belief that the Libyan regime is on the verge of collapse.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

This just came up on Twitter:

quote:

ChangeInLibya BREAKING: I don't know what's going on in Tripoli but I'm inundated with reports of shots and fighting all over the city on FB

[edit] And now this:

quote:

ChangeInLibya BREAKING: Reports that Colonel Abdelrahman AlSaid defected and IS NOW BESIEGING BAB AL-AZIZIYA Gaddafi's compound in Tripoli

AllanGordon
Jan 26, 2010

by Shine

t3ch3 posted:

Who cares? NATO's dropping bombs on Qaddafi. I hardly think turning up one's nose and saying, "Hehh you're no longer legitimate. These guys are in charge now and they're selling all your oil to Qatar!" is necessary.

Labeling Gaddafi as illegitimate is going to help fuel more defections.

farraday
Jan 10, 2007

Lower those eyebrows, young man. And the other one.
So twitter reports.

First, Mousa Koua's wife has been picked up by Ghaddafis people. Apparently until defection did them part.

Second,

quote:

ChangeInLibya: BREAKING: Rumours of more shooting near Bab Al Aziziya and something very big going on can some1 confirm shots? @acarvin @NicRobertsonCNN

There seem to be these rumors every night, but obviously this time it is even more rumored.

Ramms+ein
Nov 11, 2003
Henshin-a-go-go, baby!
More (probably) propaganda about the Iranian spy ring that Kuwait busted up that was mentioned a little bit ago:

quote:

- “…Seven Iranian espionage networks in Kuwait”
On April 1, the independent Al-Qabas daily carried the following report by the security editor: “With the rapid emergence of the political positions in regard to the death sentences issued against the members of the Iranian espionage cell, knowledgeable sources revealed that the network that was prosecuted was one of eight others in the country. The sources indicated that two of them were armed, and that the tourism attaché at the Iranian embassy, Ali Dhahrani, was the intelligence chief of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard in Kuwait and the Gulf region and that he left the country with three diplomats in December 2009 after their names were featured in the investigation into the case of the espionage network. The sources thus warned that the danger resided in the fact that one of the main accused in this case worked as an officer in the Kuwaiti army, and that the Revolutionary Guard intelligence branch tried to recruit Lebanese and Syrian natio nals.

“Moreover, it [the intelligence branch] tried to recruit groups from the Bidoun, and especially those working in the army or in sensitive security institutions. The sources also revealed that tourism attaché Al-Dhahrani attempted to recruit elements in cooperation with some companies operating in Kuwait and the Gulf under the cover of tourism, and that some of the elements of these networks were sent to receive training in Iran and some neighboring states. In the meantime, it is expected that the Iranian embassy will be asked to oust some diplomats next week. The sources continued that the members of the two armed networks received training in the use of arms and explosives, while the main source of concern resides in the fact that the espionage network was able to plant some elements in the military institution and especially the army, and that the latter managed to tap into sensitive information which was saved on computers.

“In this context, the knowledgeable sources stated that the main question for the time being revolved around whether or not the name of the tourism attaché at the Iranian embassy was actually Ali Dhahrani, and whether or not he was moving around the Gulf states under several fake names.” - Al-Qabas, Kuwait

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

More from ChangeInLibya:

quote:

BREAKING: Gunshots in FASHLOOM, DAHRA, TAJOURA and MOST IMPORTANTLY Bab Al-Aziziya Gaddafi's compound in Tripoli

That's a pretty specific and big rumour.

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ

AllanGordon posted:

Labeling Gaddafi as illegitimate is going to help fuel more defections.

Moreso than the ongoing bombing campaign and arms shipments to the rebel forces? Does it hurt when you bend that far backwards to try to justify something?

farraday
Jan 10, 2007

Lower those eyebrows, young man. And the other one.

Brown Moses posted:

More from ChangeInLibya:


That's a pretty specific and big rumour.


I'd find it easier to believe if it was more isolated unless it is supposed to be a mass coup throughout Tripoli.

AllanGordon
Jan 26, 2010

by Shine

t3ch3 posted:

Moreso than the ongoing bombing campaign and arms shipments to the rebel forces? Does it hurt when you bend that far backwards to try to justify something?

Those probably don't hurt either. And to justify what? UNSC voted on the no fly zone and you can't get much more justified than that.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Here's another version of events:

quote:

ShababLibya According to #Libya Alyowm excaped prisoners from #BabAlAziziya shooting in the compound after seizing guards' weapons

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ

AllanGordon posted:

And to justify what? UNSC voted on the no fly zone and you can't get much more justified than that.

Ahh, my apologies, I had assumed you'd read my earlier post so you knew what you were responding to.

Contraction mapping
Jul 4, 2007
THE NAZIS WERE SOCIALISTS

Brown Moses posted:

BREAKING: Gunshots in FASHLOOM, DAHRA, TAJOURA and MOST IMPORTANTLY Bab Al-Aziziya Gaddafi's compound in Tripoli

That's pretty insane. If this is confirmed then we're pretty much at the beginning of the end; Gadaffi's forces cannot possibly hold out very long if Tripoli falls apart.

farraday
Jan 10, 2007

Lower those eyebrows, young man. And the other one.

Contraction mapping posted:

That's pretty insane. If this is confirmed then we're pretty much at the beginning of the end; Gadaffi's forces cannot possibly hold out very long if Tripoli falls apart.

I would suggest tamping down on any optimism, even if the reports on gunfire are true it could just as easily being a clamp down on possibly wobbly elements in the regime.

Slantedfloors
Apr 29, 2008

Wait, What?

t3ch3 posted:

Moreso than the ongoing bombing campaign and arms shipments to the rebel forces? Does it hurt when you bend that far backwards to try to justify something?

You don't think someone who's sitting on the fence might be persuaded to join the Rebels if it's officially and internationally declared that a future Ghadaffi-Libya will be a pariah state, and that his supporters will be subject to severe travel or financial restrictions?

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

More from ChangeInLibya:

quote:

Reports that hundreds (or thousands) of prisoners escaped from Tripoli's largest prison and stole some weapons too

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ

Slantedfloors posted:

You don't think someone who's sitting on the fence might be persuaded to join the Rebels if it's officially and internationally declared that a future Ghadaffi-Libya will be a pariah state, and that his supporters will be subject to severe travel or financial restrictions?

How is that not already the case?

MothraAttack
Apr 28, 2008
Airplane spotters and twitter users show CIA-linked plane (Lockheed 382G N3796B) flying out of Malta.

Slantedfloors
Apr 29, 2008

Wait, What?

t3ch3 posted:

How is that not already the case?
...because right now it's only the Ghadaffi family who are under those restrictions? As evidenced by the steady stream of unrelated polticians leaving the country? Who are presumably able to access their bank accounts and are not living in a box under a bridge?

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

More from the Tripoli rumour mill:

quote:

LibyanDictator UNCONFIRMED reports of Sayd brigade turning on Gaddafi and shelling Bab Alaziziya.

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ

Slantedfloors posted:

...because right now it's only the Ghadaffi family who are under those restrictions? As evidenced by the steady stream of unrelated polticians leaving the country? Who are presumably able to access their bank accounts and are not living in a box under a bridge?

And now, wrapping back around to my original questions, which nobody bothered to answer, why would putting travel and economic restrictions on Libyan government officials require sovereign recognition of the NTC and legitimization of deals they're making for access to Libyan natural resources?

Slantedfloors
Apr 29, 2008

Wait, What?

t3ch3 posted:

And now, wrapping back around to my original questions, which nobody bothered to answer, why would putting travel and economic restrictions on Libyan government officials require sovereign recognition of the NTC and legitimization of deals they're making for access to Libyan natural resources?

Because it would make them illegitimate non-state actors currently engaged in a war against the officially recognized Libyan government, similar to officials of the LRA or the Taliban.

neamp
Jun 24, 2003
If there was anything going on in Tripoli I would think the international journalists stationed there would say something, the hotel they are in is supposedly not far from Bab al Aziziya.
And some people tweeting now that they called family in Tripoli who didn't hear anything.

Verizian
Dec 18, 2004
The spiky one.
So the current rumour is that one brigade in Tripoli turned on another one then started shelling Dhaffy's compound while suddenly shitloads of armed prisoners escaped at the same time and are shooting up loyalists?

sounds like a movie script.

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ

Slantedfloors posted:

Because it would make them illegitimate non-state actors currently engaged in a war against the officially recognized Libyan government, similar to officials of the LRA or the Taliban.

This hasn't appeared to be a problem for the coalition to date, including the French arms shipments.

MothraAttack
Apr 28, 2008
Posted 13 hours ago (?) on Sky News producer Tom Rayner in Tripoli's Twitter:

quote:

Fairly prolonged period of machine gun fire in Tripoli around 4.30am local. Rumours circulating govt militia exchanged fire with protesters

Contraction mapping
Jul 4, 2007
THE NAZIS WERE SOCIALISTS

farraday posted:

I would suggest tamping down on any optimism, even if the reports on gunfire are true it could just as easily being a clamp down on possibly wobbly elements in the regime.

You're right, I construed these rumoured attacks as being an all out uprising by defecting elements within Tripoli rather than a clamp down; my bad. I guess we'll know what the hell is actually happening soon enough anyway.

Vir
Dec 14, 2007

Does it tickle when your Body Thetans flap their wings, eh Beatrice?
Finally some command and control on the battle field. Turns out our speculation might be correct that the mostly unseen till now army defectors were training volunteers as an en cadre.

Young Freud posted:

Ah, I remember hearing some stuff a couple weeks ago that arming the rebels was okay because of some sort of diplomatic doublespeak saying that the Qaddafi regime = Libya or something like that.

No, the reason that it's legal to arm the rebels, if it helps protect civilians, is that resolution 1973 and 1970 specifically allow it, with somewhat different preconditions:

1973 posted:

4. Authorizes Member States that have notified the Secretary-General, acting nationally or through regional organizations or
arrangements, and acting in cooperation with the Secretary-General, to take all necessary measures, notwithstanding paragraph 9 of resolution 1970 (2011), to protect civilians and civilian populated areas under threat of attack in the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, including Benghazi, while excluding a foreign occupation force of any form on any part of Libyan territory, and requests the Member States concerned to inform the Secretary-General immediately of the measures they take pursuant to the authorization conferred by this paragraph which shall be immediately reported to the Security Council;

1970 posted:

9. Decides that all Member States shall immediately take the necessary measures to prevent the direct or indirect supply, sale or transfer to the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, from or through their territories or by their nationals, or using their flag vessels or aircraft, of arms and related materiel of all types, including weapons and ammunition, military vehicles and equipment, paramilitary equipment, and spare parts for the aforementioned, and technical assistance, training, financial or other assistance, related to military activities or the provision, maintenance or use of any arms and related materiel, including the provision of armed mercenary personnel whether or not originating in their territories, and decides further that this measure shall not apply to:
(a) Supplies of non-lethal military equipment intended solely for humanitarian or protective use, and related technical assistance or training, as approved in advance by the Committee established pursuant to paragraph 24 below;
(b) Protective clothing, including flak jackets and military helmets, temporarily exported to the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya by United Nations personnel, representatives of the media and humanitarian and development works and associated personnel, for their personal use only; or
(c) Other sales or supply of arms and related materiel, or provision of assistance or personnel, as approved in advance by the Committee;
Note that resolution 1970 also allows arming the rebels, if the security council committee agrees in advance, but 1973 expands that option by simply saying "notwithstanding" as long as the rest of 1973's conditions hold. So they might be allowed to arm fighters protecting civilians, perhaps with anti-tank and anti-air missiles, but giving them tanks and flamethrowers may not be covered by 1973.

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Homeroom Fingering
Apr 25, 2009

The secret history (((they))) don't want you to know

Young Freud posted:

I'm wondering if the rebel army prohibiting journalist is less about them reporting positions and more to keep the attention-seekers from getting in the way.

I would imagine it's so if they have to retreat it doesn't look like some pitiful mass panicked flee being broadcast worldwide like the last time.

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