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Isolationism is adorable. In other news, quote:9:50pm: Libyan government rejects opposition’s conditions for ceasefire, says troops will not leave Libyan cities, according to Reuters. They must be pissed, everyone knows declaring ceasefires is their gig and now the NTC is trying to muscle in? In gulf news, Kuwait sentenced men convicted of spying for Iran to death. http://www.hindustantimes.com/Kuwait-spies-ruling-a-conspiracy-Iran-FM/Article1-679993.aspx We're seeing rising tensions between the Shia state and Sunni states in the gulf after unrest hit several of the Shia minorities in the Sunni monarchies of the region. http://www.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/04/01/143861.html I'm not saying it's time for everyone to panic, but if you can secure a supply of brains it will save you from having to crack open your neighbors heads to feast upon the goo inside.
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# ? Apr 1, 2011 21:18 |
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# ? May 23, 2024 06:50 |
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It sounds like the coalition air strikes have been rather more effective today. They seemed to be co-ordinated with the rebels in the East, resulting in Brega being recaptured, and they destroyed tanks and a supply column in Misarata.
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# ? Apr 1, 2011 21:21 |
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Tripolitanian just posted a few bits on the rebel army re-organisation (or probably more accurately just organisation)quote:Major overhaul in rebel organiz., they r now in grps of a certain # w/ commanders controlling grps + new leader of Free Libya Army Probably would have helped to do that a little earlier.
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# ? Apr 1, 2011 21:38 |
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Brown Moses posted:Tripolitanian just posted a few bits on the rebel army re-organisation (or probably more accurately just organisation) It comes as surprising to those whose sole appreciation for revolution is ideological how revolutions actually occur. The romantic revolutionary and military organization rarely coexist well, while foreign support and military efficiency frequently go hand in hand. More news from non Libya Three killed, dozens injured in Oman protests Not expecting much in Oman, but this is more unrest than we've seen there recently. farraday fucked around with this message at 22:00 on Apr 1, 2011 |
# ? Apr 1, 2011 21:50 |
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1mpper posted:Misplaced but reasonable arguments Look, I'm not saying that the linked reports constitute a balanced and in-depth analysis of the NTC, and obviously skepticism is warranted. No one is saying that we know everything about the NTC, only that we know some things, many of which have come from their very lips and need to be taken with a grain of salt. I cited those reports in response to Jut's claims that we know nothing about the NTC, which is false; at the very least we know who they are and where they claim to stand. As others have said, the NTC at the very least PRETENDS to give a poo poo about the Libyan people, and that is enough to lend them moral (although not necessarily material) support. If reports surface in the coming weeks that they are engaging in Contra-esque shenanigans, they will most certainly be condemned and possibly face airstrikes. But until then, protecting them from annihilation by Gadaffi is the very least we can do for the civilians they govern. If it's ok with you, I'd like to end this derail since we are basically just splitting hairs at this point. Jut posted:Garbage As stated above, everyone should be taking what the NTC says with a grain of salt. That being said, the independent reports you extol confirm that the NTC has control of a military and at the very least isn't engaging in Gadaffi-style atrocities. By supporting the NTC, I'm not saying we should provide them the means (ie weapons or ground troops) to seize power. I am saying that we should give them moral support in the fight against a clearly fouler enemy. However, it behooves me to point out to you that sticking to the UNSCR effectively guarantees the success of the NTC, as only Gadaffi's forces, and not the NTC's, have committed actions that necessitate their destruction.
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# ? Apr 1, 2011 22:11 |
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Video of a convoy destroyed by coalition airstrikes in Misarata: https://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=1937525599233
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# ? Apr 1, 2011 22:17 |
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Brown Moses posted:Tripolitanian just posted a few bits on the rebel army re-organisation (or probably more accurately just organisation) From recent news about a "newly-trained army" I'm inclined to think that the civilian rebels who are willing to follow orders have been training under the military units who defected and/or western specialists, while the more gung-ho rebels have been left to do their own thing in the meanwhile and give Gaddaffi's forces something to keep them occupied. It takes time to raise a well-organised military from nothing.
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# ? Apr 1, 2011 22:28 |
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It also sounds like soldiers who have been defecting in small groups have been reorganised into new units, and are now being deployed under new commanders.
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# ? Apr 1, 2011 22:43 |
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What I still don't get is why the NTC must be recognized as a sovereign government. NATO can still coordinate with rebel paramilitary leaders without such recognition. Why is it necessary to allow them to make trade agreements for control of Libyan resources? Couldn't the aid and money they receive from these deals (which is far less than the cost of a single cruise missile) just be provided by the coalition powers as part of the humanitarian aid? Wouldn't the Libyan people be better served by an elected government making such deals after stabilization of the country?
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# ? Apr 1, 2011 23:12 |
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t3ch3 posted:What I still don't get is why the NTC must be recognized as a sovereign government. Recognizing them means unrecognizing Qaddafi, turning him into the illegitimate actor rather than the
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# ? Apr 1, 2011 23:14 |
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Patter Song posted:Recognizing them means unrecognizing Qaddafi, turning him into the illegitimate actor rather than the Who cares? NATO's dropping bombs on Qaddafi. I hardly think turning up one's nose and saying, "Hehh you're no longer legitimate. These guys are in charge now and they're selling all your oil to Qatar!" is necessary.
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# ? Apr 1, 2011 23:28 |
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Same FB page as the destroyed convoy video Brown Moses posted above. This one is purportedly of a sniper on an adjacent rooftop in Misurata: https://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=1921024266710
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# ? Apr 1, 2011 23:43 |
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quote:“Asharq al-Awsat has also learned that Doctor Shikri Ghanem, the head of the national oil company, told his aides and a number of oil companies’ CEOs, that he was not satisfied with the current situation in Libya and that he did not agree with the way Gaddafi was handling the ongoing crisis. The sources added saying: “It has become clear that Gaddafi feels lonely and isolated. Even his personal behavior has changed since his last appearance on Tuesday. So far however, Gaddafi has not made any remarks or gestures that would point to his willingness to abandon or give up power. Until now, he does not seem willing to leave the country for good…”” - Asharq al-Awsat, United Kingdom and quote:"Sources close to Gaddafi told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Libyan leader was speechless upon hearing the news of Musa Kusa's defection, describing Gaddafi's reaction as being one of deep shock. The sources, who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat on the condition of anonymity, claimed that Kusa travelled to Tunisia as part of an official mission on behalf of the Gaddafi regime, to carry out talks with western coalition states with the objective of finding a political solution to the current crisis. However after these talks reached a stalemate, Kusa decided to resign from his post as Libyan foreign minister, defecting from the Gaddafi regime, in the belief that the Libyan regime is on the verge of collapse.
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# ? Apr 1, 2011 23:50 |
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This just came up on Twitter:quote:ChangeInLibya BREAKING: I don't know what's going on in Tripoli but I'm inundated with reports of shots and fighting all over the city on FB [edit] And now this: quote:ChangeInLibya BREAKING: Reports that Colonel Abdelrahman AlSaid defected and IS NOW BESIEGING BAB AL-AZIZIYA Gaddafi's compound in Tripoli
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# ? Apr 1, 2011 23:54 |
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t3ch3 posted:Who cares? NATO's dropping bombs on Qaddafi. I hardly think turning up one's nose and saying, "Hehh you're no longer legitimate. These guys are in charge now and they're selling all your oil to Qatar!" is necessary. Labeling Gaddafi as illegitimate is going to help fuel more defections.
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# ? Apr 1, 2011 23:55 |
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So twitter reports. First, Mousa Koua's wife has been picked up by Ghaddafis people. Apparently until defection did them part. Second, quote:ChangeInLibya: BREAKING: Rumours of more shooting near Bab Al Aziziya and something very big going on can some1 confirm shots? @acarvin @NicRobertsonCNN There seem to be these rumors every night, but obviously this time it is even more rumored.
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# ? Apr 1, 2011 23:55 |
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More (probably) propaganda about the Iranian spy ring that Kuwait busted up that was mentioned a little bit ago:quote:- “…Seven Iranian espionage networks in Kuwait”
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# ? Apr 1, 2011 23:56 |
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More from ChangeInLibya:quote:BREAKING: Gunshots in FASHLOOM, DAHRA, TAJOURA and MOST IMPORTANTLY Bab Al-Aziziya Gaddafi's compound in Tripoli That's a pretty specific and big rumour.
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# ? Apr 1, 2011 23:57 |
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AllanGordon posted:Labeling Gaddafi as illegitimate is going to help fuel more defections. Moreso than the ongoing bombing campaign and arms shipments to the rebel forces? Does it hurt when you bend that far backwards to try to justify something?
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# ? Apr 2, 2011 00:01 |
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Brown Moses posted:More from ChangeInLibya: I'd find it easier to believe if it was more isolated unless it is supposed to be a mass coup throughout Tripoli.
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# ? Apr 2, 2011 00:03 |
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t3ch3 posted:Moreso than the ongoing bombing campaign and arms shipments to the rebel forces? Does it hurt when you bend that far backwards to try to justify something? Those probably don't hurt either. And to justify what? UNSC voted on the no fly zone and you can't get much more justified than that.
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# ? Apr 2, 2011 00:06 |
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Here's another version of events:quote:ShababLibya According to #Libya Alyowm excaped prisoners from #BabAlAziziya shooting in the compound after seizing guards' weapons
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# ? Apr 2, 2011 00:08 |
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AllanGordon posted:And to justify what? UNSC voted on the no fly zone and you can't get much more justified than that. Ahh, my apologies, I had assumed you'd read my earlier post so you knew what you were responding to.
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# ? Apr 2, 2011 00:09 |
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Brown Moses posted:BREAKING: Gunshots in FASHLOOM, DAHRA, TAJOURA and MOST IMPORTANTLY Bab Al-Aziziya Gaddafi's compound in Tripoli That's pretty insane. If this is confirmed then we're pretty much at the beginning of the end; Gadaffi's forces cannot possibly hold out very long if Tripoli falls apart.
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# ? Apr 2, 2011 00:10 |
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Contraction mapping posted:That's pretty insane. If this is confirmed then we're pretty much at the beginning of the end; Gadaffi's forces cannot possibly hold out very long if Tripoli falls apart. I would suggest tamping down on any optimism, even if the reports on gunfire are true it could just as easily being a clamp down on possibly wobbly elements in the regime.
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# ? Apr 2, 2011 00:15 |
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t3ch3 posted:Moreso than the ongoing bombing campaign and arms shipments to the rebel forces? Does it hurt when you bend that far backwards to try to justify something? You don't think someone who's sitting on the fence might be persuaded to join the Rebels if it's officially and internationally declared that a future Ghadaffi-Libya will be a pariah state, and that his supporters will be subject to severe travel or financial restrictions?
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# ? Apr 2, 2011 00:20 |
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More from ChangeInLibya:quote:Reports that hundreds (or thousands) of prisoners escaped from Tripoli's largest prison and stole some weapons too
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# ? Apr 2, 2011 00:22 |
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Slantedfloors posted:You don't think someone who's sitting on the fence might be persuaded to join the Rebels if it's officially and internationally declared that a future Ghadaffi-Libya will be a pariah state, and that his supporters will be subject to severe travel or financial restrictions? How is that not already the case?
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# ? Apr 2, 2011 00:23 |
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Airplane spotters and twitter users show CIA-linked plane (Lockheed 382G N3796B) flying out of Malta.
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# ? Apr 2, 2011 00:23 |
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t3ch3 posted:How is that not already the case?
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# ? Apr 2, 2011 00:29 |
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More from the Tripoli rumour mill:quote:LibyanDictator UNCONFIRMED reports of Sayd brigade turning on Gaddafi and shelling Bab Alaziziya.
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# ? Apr 2, 2011 00:31 |
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Slantedfloors posted:...because right now it's only the Ghadaffi family who are under those restrictions? As evidenced by the steady stream of unrelated polticians leaving the country? Who are presumably able to access their bank accounts and are not living in a box under a bridge? And now, wrapping back around to my original questions, which nobody bothered to answer, why would putting travel and economic restrictions on Libyan government officials require sovereign recognition of the NTC and legitimization of deals they're making for access to Libyan natural resources?
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# ? Apr 2, 2011 00:34 |
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t3ch3 posted:And now, wrapping back around to my original questions, which nobody bothered to answer, why would putting travel and economic restrictions on Libyan government officials require sovereign recognition of the NTC and legitimization of deals they're making for access to Libyan natural resources? Because it would make them illegitimate non-state actors currently engaged in a war against the officially recognized Libyan government, similar to officials of the LRA or the Taliban.
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# ? Apr 2, 2011 00:37 |
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If there was anything going on in Tripoli I would think the international journalists stationed there would say something, the hotel they are in is supposedly not far from Bab al Aziziya. And some people tweeting now that they called family in Tripoli who didn't hear anything.
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# ? Apr 2, 2011 00:42 |
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So the current rumour is that one brigade in Tripoli turned on another one then started shelling Dhaffy's compound while suddenly shitloads of armed prisoners escaped at the same time and are shooting up loyalists? sounds like a movie script.
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# ? Apr 2, 2011 00:43 |
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Slantedfloors posted:Because it would make them illegitimate non-state actors currently engaged in a war against the officially recognized Libyan government, similar to officials of the LRA or the Taliban. This hasn't appeared to be a problem for the coalition to date, including the French arms shipments.
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# ? Apr 2, 2011 00:43 |
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Posted 13 hours ago (?) on Sky News producer Tom Rayner in Tripoli's Twitter:quote:Fairly prolonged period of machine gun fire in Tripoli around 4.30am local. Rumours circulating govt militia exchanged fire with protesters
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# ? Apr 2, 2011 00:49 |
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farraday posted:I would suggest tamping down on any optimism, even if the reports on gunfire are true it could just as easily being a clamp down on possibly wobbly elements in the regime. You're right, I construed these rumoured attacks as being an all out uprising by defecting elements within Tripoli rather than a clamp down; my bad. I guess we'll know what the hell is actually happening soon enough anyway.
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# ? Apr 2, 2011 00:49 |
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Finally some command and control on the battle field. Turns out our speculation might be correct that the mostly unseen till now army defectors were training volunteers as an en cadre.Young Freud posted:Ah, I remember hearing some stuff a couple weeks ago that arming the rebels was okay because of some sort of diplomatic doublespeak saying that the Qaddafi regime = Libya or something like that. No, the reason that it's legal to arm the rebels, if it helps protect civilians, is that resolution 1973 and 1970 specifically allow it, with somewhat different preconditions: 1973 posted:4. Authorizes Member States that have notified the Secretary-General, acting nationally or through regional organizations or 1970 posted:9. Decides that all Member States shall immediately take the necessary measures to prevent the direct or indirect supply, sale or transfer to the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, from or through their territories or by their nationals, or using their flag vessels or aircraft, of arms and related materiel of all types, including weapons and ammunition, military vehicles and equipment, paramilitary equipment, and spare parts for the aforementioned, and technical assistance, training, financial or other assistance, related to military activities or the provision, maintenance or use of any arms and related materiel, including the provision of armed mercenary personnel whether or not originating in their territories, and decides further that this measure shall not apply to:
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# ? Apr 2, 2011 00:58 |
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# ? May 23, 2024 06:50 |
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Young Freud posted:I'm wondering if the rebel army prohibiting journalist is less about them reporting positions and more to keep the attention-seekers from getting in the way. I would imagine it's so if they have to retreat it doesn't look like some pitiful mass panicked flee being broadcast worldwide like the last time.
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# ? Apr 2, 2011 02:23 |