Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

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Baddog: May 12, 2001

Ramms+ein posted:

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MD02Ak01.html

I love the term "humanitarian imperialism"

# ? Apr 2, 2011 23:51

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# ? May 22, 2024 03:45

Joementum: May 23, 2004; jesus christ

Vir posted:

That's might be how it would have worked if not UNSCR 1973 had been passed, but 1973 gives wider opportunities for shipping arms to the rebels, as noted earlier (the "notwithstanding" bit).

Only in the broadest interpretation of what preventing civilian deaths means.

# ? Apr 2, 2011 23:53

Ireland Sucks: May 16, 2004

NATO are in a pretty good position to interpret it however they want

# ? Apr 2, 2011 23:58

Vir: Dec 14, 2007; Does it tickle when your Body Thetans flap their wings, eh Beatrice?

t3ch3 posted:

Only in the broadest interpretation of what preventing civilian deaths means.

It's pretty explicit in allowing the arms embargo to be bypassed, saying that the section about the embargo can be ignored, but yes it's only allowed as long as it prevents civilian deaths. Anti-tank and anti-air weapons might be allowed, but probably not flame throwers and anti-personnel mines.

e: the libya17feb website has a translated interview with a guy who says he's a fighter from Misratah: http://www.libyafeb17.com/2011/04/translated-comprehensive-update-from-the-city-of-misratah-today/

summary:
- They captured some cars with weapons in them.
- G tanks were bombed in the south and west of the city by the NATO forces
- Qatari ship arrived with aid supplies, and Turkish ship evacuated 400 patients.
- Still some G "snipers" inside the city, but seem to be on the defensive. Had to leave because they couldn't take the stench of their fallen, the guy claims.

Vir fucked around with this message at 00:16 on Apr 3, 2011

# ? Apr 3, 2011 00:01

Young Freud: Nov 26, 2006

Vir posted:

It's pretty explicit in allowing the arms embargo to be bypassed, saying that the section about the embargo can be ignored, but yes it's only allowed as long as it prevents civilian deaths. Anti-tank and anti-air weapons might be allowed, but probably not flame throwers and anti-personnel mines.

I'm still intrigued by why flamethrowers.

Granted, I'm sure incendiary and thermobaric rocket weapons are off-limits, but flamethrowers are dual-use. They could be to set controlled burns and clear out hidden snakes of the no-legged variety.

poo poo, flamethrowers are legal to own in the United States by civilians, but aren't in Libya?

# ? Apr 3, 2011 00:13

Vir: Dec 14, 2007; Does it tickle when your Body Thetans flap their wings, eh Beatrice?

I used them as an example because they're not really what you'd consider an ideal defensive and discriminate weapon in an urban environment.

# ? Apr 3, 2011 00:15

Young Freud: Nov 26, 2006

Vir posted:

I used them as an example because they're not really what you'd consider an ideal defensive and discriminate weapon in an urban environment.

True, but they're likely easier to construct than any other weapon. Use, on the other hand, is still pretty difficult. There's a few of reasons why they're no longer fielded, having largely been replaced by rocket "flamethrowers" with the last couple of decades, and "hard to use" is one of them.

# ? Apr 3, 2011 00:18

Pedrophile: Feb 25, 2011; by angerbot

Young Freud posted:

True, but they're likely easier to construct than any other weapon. Use, on the other hand, is still pretty difficult. There's a few of reasons why they're no longer fielded, having largely been replaced by rocket "flamethrowers" with the last couple of decades, and "hard to use" is one of them.

I don't think we need to read "Brega burns to ground due to rebel misuse of flamethrowers"

# ? Apr 3, 2011 00:22

Zappatista: Oct 28, 2008; WILL AMOUNT TO NOTHING IN LIFE.

Or "One rebel is still in hospital after accidentally flame-throwing himself in the torso"

# ? Apr 3, 2011 00:29

Homeroom Fingering: Apr 25, 2009; The secret history (((they))) don't want you to know

Pedrophile posted:

I don't think we need to read "Brega burns to ground due to rebel misuse of flamethrowers"

You scoff, but you'll sure feel stupid when Gadaffi releases his elite killer bee swarms on them.

# ? Apr 3, 2011 00:30

Shageletic: Jul 25, 2007

Concerned Citizen posted:

Even if the rebels win (and this will not an inevitability since they are still outgunned 10-to-1 according to Gates), the challenges facing them in trying to actually establish a successful government are daunting.

1. Libya is in flames. It's going to take some time to reconstruct, even with its oil wealth.

2. It's not likely that Gaddafi's defeat is the end. There will certainly be an insurgency to deal with, and there is a very substantial risk that the tanks/weapons may fall into the hands of militias with their own agendas.

3. The rebels are weak, militarily. Defeating Gaddafi is one thing, but it will take an even greater presence to actually govern. There is a very, very substantial chance that irreconcilable differences between factions may doom the Rebel coalition to factional fighting.

4. The NTC is full of ex-Gaddafi regime. It's hard to imagine that the new government, assuming the NTC actually fulfills manages to govern something, won't be extremely corrupt. The makeup of the regime-in-waiting makes the prospect of actual democracy remote, which again may be an agitating factor toward breakup and a renewed civil war.

Even without the the back-and-forth going on at the frontlines, the future is quite uncertain. This is a worrying situation. The worst thing that can happen is a prolonged Africa-style civil war. Historically, that has brought out some really atrocious things, like child soldiers, mass rapes, genocide, etc. Gaddafi winning would be vastly preferable to that outcome. The West has made it clear that they aren't interested in staying in Libya after Gaddafi is gone, so unless there is some serious mission creep (which is not improbable), I am not confident about the future we're trying to create for Libya.

Here's the thing: I might agree with some of your reasoning. We don't know what's going to happen. We don't exactly know all the actors. There's tons to be worried about. But ultimately, its very hard to take you seriously when you say statements like "Historically, that has brought out some really atrocious things, like child soldiers, mass rapes, genocide, etc. Gaddafi winning would be vastly preferable to that outcome."

There are documented cases of him going to populated areas and destroying them systematically. He spouts off about cleansing rebel areas. Ghaddafi is offering the worst case scenario, more than any other despot in the region. And to not recognize that points to a fundamental inability to recognize current events.

# ? Apr 3, 2011 02:05

Jut: May 16, 2005; by Ralp

Shageletic posted:

Here's the thing: I might agree with some of your reasoning. We don't know what's going to happen. We don't exactly know all the actors. There's tons to be worried about. But ultimately, its very hard to take you seriously when you say statements like "Historically, that has brought out some really atrocious things, like child soldiers, mass rapes, genocide, etc. Gaddafi winning would be vastly preferable to that outcome."

There are documented cases of him going to populated areas and destroying them systematically. He spouts off about cleansing rebel areas. Ghaddafi is offering the worst case scenario, more than any other despot in the region. And to not recognize that points to a fundamental inability to recognize current events.

Has CQ introduced "child soldiers, mass rapes, genocide, etc..." to Libya? I don't think you fully understand the meaning of worst case scenario.

# ? Apr 3, 2011 02:58

Joementum: May 23, 2004; jesus christ

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703712504576237042432212406.html

quote:

DARNA, Libya�Two former Afghan Mujahedeen and a six-year detainee at Guantanamo Bay have stepped to the fore of this city's military campaign, training new recruits for the front and to protect the city from infiltrators loyal to Col. Moammar Gadhafi.

The presence of Islamists like these amid the opposition has raised concerns, among some fellow rebels as well as their Western allies, that the goal of some Libyan fighters in battling Col. Gadhafi is to propagate Islamist extremism.

Abdel Hakim al-Hasady, an influential Islamic preacher and high-school teacher who spent five years at a training camp in eastern Afghanistan, oversees the recruitment, training and deployment of about 300 rebel fighters from Darna.

Mr. Hasady's field commander on the front lines is Salah al-Barrani, a former fighter from the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, or LIFG, which was formed in the 1990s by Libyan mujahedeen returning home after helping to drive the Soviets from Afghanistan and dedicated to ousting Mr. Gadhafi from power.

Sufyan Ben Qumu, a Libyan army veteran who worked for Osama bin Laden's holding company in Sudan and later for an al Qaeda-linked charity in Afghanistan, is training many of the city's rebel recruits.

Both Messrs. Hasady and Ben Qumu were picked up by Pakistani authorities after the U.S.-led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 and were turned over to the U.S. Mr. Hasady was released to Libyan custody two months later. Mr. Ben Qumu spent six years at Guantanamo Bay before he was turned over to Libyan custody in 2007.

# ? Apr 3, 2011 03:11

farraday: Jan 10, 2007; Lower those eyebrows, young man. And the other one.

quote:

Among his followers, Mr. Hasady has the reputation of a trained warrior who stood fearlessly at the front ranks of young protesters during the first days of the uprising.

And his discourse has become dramatically more pro-American, now that he stands in alliance with the West in a battle against Col. Gadhafi.

"Our view is starting to change of the U.S.," said Mr. Hasady. "If we hated the Americans 100%, today it is less than 50%. They have started to redeem themselves for their past mistakes by helping us to preserve the blood of our children."

Mr. Hasady also offered a reconsideration of his past approach. "No Islamist revolution has ever succeeded. Only when the whole population was included did we succeed, and that means a more inclusive ideology."

[cough]

So, who's up for more twitter rumors?

quote:

LibyanDictator" #Misrata's elected representatives arrived in #Benghazi a few days ago, now official members of the Libyan NTC. #Libya #Feb17

Yes, but who elected them? :tinfoil:

In Syria

quote:

Seleucid: Hmmm RT @edwardedark online activists in #Syria call for a nationwide general strike on Wednesday 6th of April.

I would put little faith in that.

In Yemen it looks like there's attempts to push Saleh into handing over power to a deputy so that actual negotiations can occur.

# ? Apr 3, 2011 03:35

Joementum: May 23, 2004; jesus christ

farraday posted:

[cough]

Yeah the Mujahedeen was pretty pro-US in Afghanistan too when they were fighting soviets.

# ? Apr 3, 2011 03:40

farraday: Jan 10, 2007; Lower those eyebrows, young man. And the other one.

t3ch3 posted:

Yeah the Mujahedeen was pretty pro-US in Afghanistan too when they were fighting soviets.

So, a small aspect of this focused on one city is the exact same? Libya, which has a population one fourth as large and concentrated in a fairly small band along the coast is the same as Afghanistan? The comparison is absurd on its face and making it is either clutching at straws or clutching your pearls, I can't decide between the two, but clutching is definitely involved.

The sheer amount of deterministic thinking to even imply what you're suggesting is boggling.

# ? Apr 3, 2011 03:49

Joementum: May 23, 2004; jesus christ

Alright man, I'm sure that your Twitter posts about how Gaddafi's forces are in imminent collapse are better representations of the situation on the ground and NATO arms shipments to rebel forces commanded by the Mujahedeen will end up exactly as intended. What does @LibyanDictator or maybe the #Feb17 feed have to say about this :allears:

# ? Apr 3, 2011 03:57

farraday: Jan 10, 2007; Lower those eyebrows, young man. And the other one.

t3ch3 posted:

Alright man, I'm sure that your Twitter posts about how Gaddafi's forces are in imminent collapse are better representations of the situation on the ground and NATO arms shipments to rebel forces commanded by the Mujahedeen will end up exactly as intended. What does @LibyanDictator or maybe the #Feb17 feed have to say about this

The LF narrative you're working off of is as absurd as the Beckian narrative. The only difference is the color of the board you're diving into the deep end from. Reality need not apply when one group in one city means this is Afghanistan in the 80s all over again.

The paranoid style may be accepted wholeheartedly by the right, but it is hardly a stranger to the left.

I'm sorry you are so upset by my posting of tweet reports that you can't even begin to accurately judge how seriously I'm taking them. I actually find your posts when you aren't sliding into paranoid fantasy rather insightful, which makes the rest of it a drat shame.

# ? Apr 3, 2011 04:09

Shageletic: Jul 25, 2007

Jut posted:

Has CQ introduced "child soldiers, mass rapes, genocide, etc..." to Libya? I don't think you fully understand the meaning of worst case scenario.

Child soldiers

quote:

UNICEF spokeswoman Marixie Mercado told the Associated Press that there is "a serious concern" that child soldiers are among the mercenaries that Gaddafi is hiring to attack rebel forces.

http://www.hudson-ny.org/2000/gaddafi-mercenaries-in-libya

Rape

quote:

Libyan army forces unleashed a remorseless barrage of tank fire and artillery shells yesterday amid fresh reports from residents that soldiers are indiscriminately killing and kidnapping men and raping women as they forced their way, house by house, towards the centre.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...ld-Misrata.html

Mass killings

quote:

Libyan ruler Muammar Gaddafi threatened widespread massacres against his own people in an appearance on state television Tuesday as the revolt against his regime consolidated its grip on the eastern half of the country and spread to the suburbs of Tripoli, the capital.

quote:

Muammar Gaddafi is facing a probe into alleged crimes against humanity by the International Criminal Court (ICC) after hundreds of protesters were killed in the uprising against his rule that broke out last month.

The ICC's chief prosecutor, Luis Moreno-Ocampo, has concluded that there is sufficient evidence to investigate Colonel Gaddafi and members of his inner circle, |including his sons, although he mentioned only the Libyan leader by name.

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/world-news/gaddafi-faces-probe-into-libya-massacre-claims-15103374.html#ixzz1IQT8D3MI

Google isn't such a hard thing to use, you know.

EDIT: All of this arguing is idiotic. There needs to be more posts about what's going on, and less about what shut in internet nerds feel they need to pontificate shittily about.

Shageletic fucked around with this message at 04:13 on Apr 3, 2011

# ? Apr 3, 2011 04:09

Joementum: May 23, 2004; jesus christ

farraday posted:

The LF narrative you're working off of is as absurd as the Beckian narrative. The only difference is the color of the board you're diving into the deep end from.

You probably won't believe me about this, but the "LF narrative" of the Libyan conflict doesn't have much to do with an article in the Wall Street Journal. This thread has been days to weeks behind what's actually happening in Libya because of source bias.

# ? Apr 3, 2011 05:03

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

t3ch3 posted:

This thread has been days to weeks behind what's actually happening in Libya because of source bias.

Well, you're more than welcome to post your up to the minute sources on what's actually happening in Libya.

# ? Apr 3, 2011 05:17

Ogive: Dec 22, 2002; by Lowtax

Shageletic posted:

EDIT: All of this arguing is idiotic. There needs to be more posts about what's going on, and less about what shut in internet nerds feel they need to pontificate shittily about.

I agree. It seems that right after Obama gave his speech this thread went straight to poo poo. So, now I basically just skim the thread for anything posted news-style, like any post by Brown Moses (love you, btw), and ignore every single post by everyone else. Nobody gives a drat about your C/P talking points. If it didn't work on your grandma (who forwarded you that email to begin with), it's not gonna work on me. I want news about libya; I don't care your father never loved you as a child.

Farraday's been kind of kicking it up lately, too, for that matter. +1 to both of you.

# ? Apr 3, 2011 05:41

Mr Plow: Dec 31, 2004

Edit: Nevermind

# ? Apr 3, 2011 06:16

farraday: Jan 10, 2007; Lower those eyebrows, young man. And the other one.

More news on the ongoing and developing diplomatic fighting around the gulf.

GCC may consider severing Iran ties

As a reminder, this goes back to sectarian tensions exacerbate by pro democratic reform rallies that have taken place among Shia population in the Sunni monarchies of the Arab gulf states.

The incursion of GCC troops into Bahrain at the request of that monarch is obviously a major flash point for tensions between the Sunni GCC nations and Shia Iran. The GCC accuses Iran of fomenting the unrest, Iran displays a similar lack or self awareness by accusing them of crushing democratic movements.

The level of US involvement remains ambiguous, however allegations of a quid pro quo over support for Libya in exchange for a free hand in Bahrain are hard to dismiss. The contrast between the two events was obvious from the start and recent anonymous leaks have suggested it was explicit.

It is further not clear how much the US's desire to isolate Iran is acting in concert with the monarchies desire to turn any nascent pro democratic movement into a purely sectarian question. While an outbreak of war seems unlikely, the situation in the gulf continues to deteriorate.

# ? Apr 3, 2011 06:34

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

The US was never going to interfere in Bahrain though, and the reasons why don't require some back room deal. It's because the US perceives an interest in the monarchy remaining in power. And Saudi Arabia has made it clear they view this as an existential issue, which would have made it hard for the US to come down against them.

# ? Apr 3, 2011 06:38

farraday: Jan 10, 2007; Lower those eyebrows, young man. And the other one.

Xandu posted:

The US was never going to interfere in Bahrain though, and the reasons why don't require some back room deal. It's because the US perceives an interest in the monarchy remaining in power. And Saudi Arabia has made it clear they view this as an existential issue, which would have made it hard for the US to come down against them.

Because neither one was apparently willing to act without the color of multilateralism. Saudi intervention in Bahrain is under the Auspices of the GCC, a group which, to my knowledge, has only been used to respond to perceived outside threats prior. The necessity of the Arab League agreement to the UN Resolution is fairly well established, in Bahrain however the major western nations have allowed the sectarian view of the protests to dominate, quelling comparisons to the pro democracy protesters of the north african Arab states.

The importance of delegitimizing the reform/democratic motivations of Shia protesters along the gulf is fairly obvious for the autocratic monarchies. The obvious advantage to the major western powers in the Arab Leagues resolution, if anything, underscores how seriously the Saudi led GCC took the situation in their own borders and how much they wanted acceptance of their own actions. The US was never going to intervene in Bahrain, but there are many things the US could do short of intervening that the Saudis wanted to make sure wouldn't happen.

Now we have an Arab Spring in Yemen, the Levant, and Northern Africa... and a completely unrelated sectarian conflict brewing in the gulf.

It isn't so much a secret backroom deal in the Molotov-Ribbentrop sense as an attempt to hide the sausage making realism that underlies the rhetoric of humanitarianism or defense from Iranian influence.

Edit// Here is an Asia Times... piece on the issue from a slant highly favorable to a certain conspiratorial persuasion.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MD02Ak01.html?sms_ss=twitter&at_xt=4d97f2085f26a027,0

If you manage to sort through the dodgy claims, hyperbole and rhetoric the sources they claim are a bare and simple foundation for the heights of conspiracy they surmount.

It is worth noting this piece has made the roudns on twitter and most recently was posted on the 17Feb Libya liveblog.

farraday fucked around with this message at 07:09 on Apr 3, 2011

# ? Apr 3, 2011 06:58

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

quote:

The US was never going to intervene in Bahrain, but there are many things the US could do short of intervening that the Saudis wanted to make sure wouldn't happen.

Now we have an Arab Spring in Yemen, the Levant, and Northern Africa... and a completely unrelated sectarian conflict brewing in the gulf.

Well the US could have done a lot, but Arab League support or not, I don't see why it would have done more than condemn violence and call for reform (like it's currently doing). Saudi Arabia (Bahrain too, but in a different way) is too important when it comes to helping the US isolate Iran to come out against it on this issue.

Libya and to some extent Egypt excepted, the US hasn't acted that differently when it comes to Bahrain than it has with Yemen or it did in Tunisia. As for the Levant, has Obama even said anything on Syria? I'm just not convinced Bahrain isn't par for the course when it comes to the US.

The Asia Times piece...I still find it highly suspicious that UN diplomats would be the ones reporting on that. They're rarely the ones kept in the loop about the US's foreign policy decisions. If it's true it'd be trivial to get a US government source.

quote:

Humanitarian imperialists will spin en masse this is a "conspiracy", as they have been spinning the bombing of Libya prevented a hypothetical massacre in Benghazi. They will be defending the House of Saud - saying it acted to squash Iranian subversion in the Gulf

I'd also like to see which people that could be even slightly described as humanitarian or even center-left defending Saudi Arabia's response or suggesting an Iranian conspiracy.

edit: Today the US is supposed to stop flying combat missions over Libya, we'll see how that goes.

edit2: I like how a few weeks ago that Asia Times author was screaming of an impending massacre and now that the US has gotten involved, he's downgraded it to a "hypothetical massacre."

Also this lovely sentence

quote:

They may be able to resist for a while - as the only possible solution to avoid a bloodbath has to be tackled by the UN; to declare a no-fly zone, which would wreak havoc on the regime's push to supply its mercenaries, and even abort a possible offensive against Benghazi.

Xandu fucked around with this message at 07:42 on Apr 3, 2011

# ? Apr 3, 2011 07:30

farraday: Jan 10, 2007; Lower those eyebrows, young man. And the other one.

Xandu posted:

Well the US could have done a lot, but Arab League support or not, I don't see why it would have done more than condemn violence and call for reform (like it's currently doing). Saudi Arabia (Bahrain too, but in a different way) is too important when it comes to helping the US isolate Iran to come out against it on this issue.

Libya and to some extent Egypt excepted, the US hasn't acted that differently when it comes to Bahrain than it has with Yemen or it did in Tunisia. As for the Levant, has Obama even said anything on Syria? I'm just not convinced Bahrain isn't par for the course when it comes to the US.

Tunisia is not the proper comparison since it was chronologically the first and thus not part of a trend.

As for not treating Bahrain differently.

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/economy/article1573534.ece

There's a country missing from that list, f we accept that by that point Libya is at a step well beyond diplomatic condemnation.

# ? Apr 3, 2011 07:51

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

farraday posted:

Tunisia is not the proper comparison since it was chronologically the first and thus not part of a trend.

As for not treating Bahrain differently.

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/economy/article1573534.ece

There's a country missing from that list, f we accept that by that point Libya is at a step well beyond diplomatic condemnation.

Come on, you can do a bit better than that.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2011-03/14/c_13776538.htm posted:

WASHINGTON, March 13 (Xinhua) -- The White House on Sunday strongly condemned the violence that has taken place in Yemen and Bahrain, urging the two allies' governments to show restraint.

White House spokesman Jay Carney issued a statement saying "the United States strongly condemns the violence that has taken place in Yemen and Bahrain today. We urge the governments of these countries to show restraint and to respect the universal rights of their people."

He also urged the Bahraini government to pursue "a peaceful and meaningful dialogue" with the opposition rather than "resorting to the use of force."

"In particular, we urge our GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) partners to show restraint and respect the rights of the people of Bahrain, and to act in a way that supports dialogue instead of undermining it," the spokesman added.

and

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iDMfAxtRb_qYjSFj1uRnteiS3XWQ?docId=CNG.1fd1c4853d22c9c6fd2476a783525b0d.d1 posted:

Bahraini authorities on Friday freed Internet blogger Mahmood al-Yousif, also known as the "Blogfather", whose arrest drew criticism from the US State Department, the official news agency BNA said.

A government spokesman cited by BNA said Yousif was questioned on Thursday but gave no further details.
The United States has criticised the arrest, while also renewing its condemnation of violence in the Sunni-ruled Gulf kingdom where Shiite-led protests broke out in mid-February.

"We're deeply concerned about his arrest. He's a prominent and respected blogger," Mark Toner, a State Department spokesman, said on Wednesday.

"We're also concerned about reports of the detention of two other Internet activists who have expressed their views on recent events in Bahrain," Toner said.

"We hope that the Bahraini government's decision to arrest bloggers and Internet activists will not make it more difficult to resume a national dialogue," he said.

I think we can agree however that the US has no problems putting humanitarianism on hold when it comes to its own interests, so I don't think we really disagree on that much here.

# ? Apr 3, 2011 07:59

farraday: Jan 10, 2007; Lower those eyebrows, young man. And the other one.

Thank you for showing that the blanket condemnations of violence have dropped Bahrain compared to earlier in the month?

Compare.

Press briefing March 22

quote:

Q One more thing on that. The French have called for a change of -- basically regime change in Yemen in light of the violence going on there. What�s the U.S. stand on that, on whether our support and confidence remains with the leadership there?

MR. RHODES: Throughout the situation in Yemen, as with the situation in the region, we�ve communicated that we believe very strongly that there need to be actions taken by the government to be more responsive to the people of Yemen. We were deeply disturbed and condemned, for instance, the violence that we saw several days ago against the people of Yemen. We�ve insisted that that violence not only stop but that there be accountability for those who carried it out.

Right now what you have is a very fluid and dynamic situation. And what we are focused on is channeling those forces at play in Yemen into a political dialogue so that there can be a political settlement to the challenges in Yemen that is responsive to the Yemeni people and that does not resort to violence, again, to effect a crackdown on the people of Yemen.

So, again, our efforts are to meet the test of a government that is responsive to the people, that, again, provides greater political space for their, political expression and economic opportunity. And we�ve communicated that directly to President Saleh. In fact, John Brennan called President Saleh as recently as yesterday to underscore our deep concerns and strong condemnation of the violence that. And we�re continuing to follow it very closely and communicate at a range of levels with officials in Yemen.

Bahrain Mar 27

quote:

Readout of the Vice President's Call with Bahraini Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad al-Khalifa

The Vice President spoke today to Bahraini Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad al-Khalifa to reiterate U.S. support for the Crown Prince�s efforts to initiate a National Dialogue on political reform. The Vice President recognized the important steps taken by the Crown Prince to reach out to the opposition and that law and order are necessary in order for a productive dialogue to proceed. The Vice President encouraged additional outreach and meaningful reform that is responsive to the aspirations of all Bahrainis. The Vice President and Crown Prince agreed that only a political solution would give Bahrain long-term stability.

Dissecting diplospeak, exactly where are the calls that those responsible for violence in Bahrain should be brought to justice?

Indeed if you look at the transcript from the comments on the Bahrani bloggers arrest, the difference in depth to the response between Syria and Bahrain is marked.

http://www.enewspf.com/latest-news/latest-national/23091-state-department-briefing-by-mark-c-toner-march-30-2011.html#BAHRAIN

quote:

MR. TONER: Well, I mean, ultimately it�s going to be the Syrian people, obviously, who are the ones that judge what they heard today and whether or not Asad � President Asad demonstrated positive movement forward in meeting their aspirations and in hearing their call for political and economic and social reform. But we expect they�re going to be disappointed. We feel the speech fell short with respects to the kinds of reforms that the Syrian people demanded and what President Asad�s own advisors suggested was coming.

Is much stronger than

quote:

MR. TONER: Well, we�ve been � right. I think we�ve been clear in previous statements that we�re obviously very concerned about those kinds of reports. We condemn the violence against civilians and peaceful protesters, and we continue to call for a credible political process. As the Secretary said many times, there�s no security solution to the situation in Bahrain. It needs to be a political one.

which is pure boilerplate.

# ? Apr 3, 2011 08:20

Shageletic: Jul 25, 2007

Here's an article rounding up what happened this weekend:

quote:

For weeks, Libya's revolutionary leadership has spoken almost in awe of the soldiers who defected from Muammar Gaddafi's army and who would lead the rebel assault to bring him down.

And for weeks, the disorganised civilian volunteers who have rapidly advanced and almost as swiftly retreated along a few hundred miles of desert road have awaited the arrival of these professional soldiers to turn around the revolution's fortunes.

Finally, some made an appearance for the first time at the frontline near Brega. They appeared disciplined, well armed and under command � a stark contrast to the free-for-all of the civilian rebel militia. But there were no more than a few dozen of them and the question still remained: where were the thousands of experienced soldiers that the revolutionary leadership had so often invoked to bolster morale? Did they exist?

quote:

On Friday, Nato announced that coalition aircraft had flown 74 strike missions the previous day, down almost a quarter from earlier in the week. Of those missions, US aircraft flew only 10. And that number of strikes looks likely to decline as responsibility passes largely to the UK, France and Canada.

Among the aircraft being withdrawn are the A-10 Thunderbolts and AC-130 gunships which have been used with such devastating impact against Libyan armour.

The slowing of the coalition mission has only helped to contribute to a growing sense that the conflict in Libya is stumbling into a new and uncertain phase, marked not by the strengths of the opposing sides but by a realisation of their weaknesses.

quote:

Instead, what has begun to emerge is what many feared in the first place � a stalemate, defined by two sides playing a kind of lethal tag in the desert over deserted oil towns.

By last week it had led one of America's most senior officers, General Carter Ham, head of US Africa command, to warn publicly for the first time of what Washington, London and Paris regard as the nightmare scenario. "I do see a situation where that could be the case," he said. "I could see accomplishing the military mission which has been assigned to me, and the current leader would remain the current leader."

Ham's prognosis has been underscored by US intelligence analysis, which has come to the same conclusion. Officials who spoke anonymously to the Washington Post have cautioned against the idea that Gaddafi may be toppled quickly, despite the high-profile defection to London last week of his foreign minister and long-time intelligence chief, Moussa Koussa. "Neither side seems capable of moving the ball down the field," a US official told the paper. "It is also true that neither side has endless resources."

quote:

While Gaddafi officials quickly rejected the offer as "a trick", it is clear, too, that members of Gaddafi's own regime � weakened by defections, including that of Koussa, and damage to the country's economy � have also been attempting to find an end to the crisis, no matter how cynically motivated.

Libya's former prime minister, Abdul Ati al-Obeidi, confirming remarks by US secretary of state Hillary Clinton that regime figures were trying to get in contact, said on Friday: "We are trying to talk to the British, the French and the Americans to stop the killing of people. We are trying to find a mutual solution." His comments followed the disclosure that a senior aide to Gaddafi's powerful son, Saif al-Islam, had met British officials midweek on a visit to London.

While David Cameron and some of his allies in the coalition are hoping that Gaddafi may be forced out by more defections from his inner circle following the example of Koussa, as yet � despite rumours � the most important figures, including the powerful military intelligence chief Abdullah al-Senussi, have shown no real signs of budging.

All of which has raised the increasing prospect that any solution for the crisis in Libya � as things stand now � is more likely to be political than military

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/02/libyan-conflict-descending-into-stalemate

And the Ivory Coast is getting hosed up

quote:

The full horror of the violence sweeping Ivory Coast has emerged as the battle for Abidjan raged and thousands of civilians faced critical shortages.

Forces loyal to President Laurent Gbagbo defied expectations by mounting stubborn resistance in the economic capital for a third day, raising fears of protracted urban warfare and soaring casualties. The heavy weapons fire and fighting left thousands of people barricaded inside their homes and in increasingly urgent need of food, water and medical treatment. Looting is rife amid a sense of lawlessness and anarchy.

Deepening the fear in the capital, it was reported that at least 800 people were massacred in intercommunal violence in the western town of Du�kou�, which fell to rebels last week. This was despite the presence of hundreds of UN peacekeepers there.

In five days, the rebel forces aiming to install Alassane Ouattara, the widely recognised winner of last November's election, took nearly 80% of Ivory Coast before entering Abidjan and encircling the presidential residence and palace.

But hopes for a swift climax appear to have been dashed as Gbagbo makes an improbable last stand. His most reliable fighters, the 2,500-strong republican guard, and remaining army troops have not yielded to seemingly overwhelming odds. Gbagbo's Europe-based adviser, Toussaint Alain, defiantly told reporters in Paris that the president was still in his residence "like Sarkozy at the Elys�e and Obama at the White House".

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/02/ivory-coast-abidjan-duekoue-gbagbo

# ? Apr 3, 2011 20:55

Jut: May 16, 2005; by Ralp

quote:

Finally, some made an appearance for the first time at the frontline near Brega. They appeared disciplined, well armed and under command � a stark contrast to the free-for-all of the civilian rebel militia. But there were no more than a few dozen of them and the question still remained: where were the thousands of experienced soldiers that the revolutionary leadership had so often invoked to bolster morale? Did they exist?

Twitter ghosts.

# ? Apr 3, 2011 21:20

Vir: Dec 14, 2007; Does it tickle when your Body Thetans flap their wings, eh Beatrice?

quote:

Instead, what has begun to emerge is what many feared in the first place � a stalemate, defined by two sides playing a kind of lethal tag in the desert over deserted oil towns.

Feared because that's sort of the stated purpose of UNSCR 1973 section 4 - protecting the civilians. Mission accomplished.

quote:

I could see accomplishing the military mission which has been assigned to me, and the current leader would remain the current leader."

Precisely. It's been made clear from day 1 that although many world leaders want Gaddafi to go*, regime change is not the aim of the resolution. Such a resolution would have been vetoed, and wouldn't have had support in the Arab League, and perhaps not even among the rebel fighters at the time: They wanted to do it mostly themselves.

*: (and that indeed his ouster could be an acceptable way of reaching the aims of the resolution, and that it would be welcome of the old crazy just happened to be inspecting a SAM site while it was being bombed)

I think Cameron, Sarkozy, Obama, and co. knew that the rebels might not be quickly successful, but thought - probably rightly so - that if they did nothing they'd be looking at another Rwanda-like situation, and would be despised by everyone in the Greater Middle east and many of their own people as well.

Time appears to be on the rebels' hands though. The current situation is untenable for Gaddafi, and his most hilariously optimistic outlook seems to be some kind of oil-for-food and no-fly-zone intermission, but realistically he's most likely just fighting to maintain his bargaining position in the negotiations for how he leaves office.

# ? Apr 3, 2011 21:56

Pedrophile: Feb 25, 2011; by angerbot

Shageletic posted:

Child soldiers
Rape
Mass killings

Cut, print, ship.

# ? Apr 3, 2011 22:27

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

Finally, a change of US policy in Yemen. At least a month too late. It's long, but I'll post it in full because of the paywall.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/04/world/middleeast/04yemen.html?partner=rss&emc=rss posted:

SANA, Yemen � The United States, which long supported Yemen�s president, even in the face of recent widespread protests, has now quietly shifted positions and has concluded that he is unlikely to bring about the required reforms and must be eased out of office, according to American and Yemeni officials.

The Obama administration had maintained its support of President Ali Abdullah Saleh in private and refrained from directly criticizing him in public, even as his supporters fired on peaceful demonstrators, because he was considered a critical ally in fighting the Yemeni branch of Al Qaeda. This position has fueled criticism of the United States in some quarters for hypocrisy for rushing to oust a repressive autocrat in Libya but not in strategic allies like Yemen and Bahrain.

That position began to shift in the past week, administration officials said. While American officials have not publicly pressed Mr. Saleh to go, they have told allies and some reporters that they now view his hold on office as untenable, and they believe he should leave.

A Yemeni official said that the American position changed when the negotiations with Mr. Saleh on the terms of his potential departure began a little over a week ago.

�The Americans have been pushing for transfer of power since the beginning� of those negotiations, the official said, but have not said so publicly because �they still were involved in the negotiations.�

Those negotiations now center on a proposal for Mr. Saleh to hand over power to a provisional government led by his vice president until new elections are held. That principle �is not in dispute,� the Yemeni official said, only the timing.

It does remain in dispute among the student-led protesters, however, who have rejected any proposal that would give power to a leading official of the Saleh government.

The negotiations began after government-linked gunmen killed more than 50 protesters at an antigovernment rally on March 18, prompting a wave of defections of high-level government officials the following week. The American and Yemeni officials who discussed the talks did so on the condition of anonymity because the talks are private and still in progress.

It is not clear whether the United States is negotiating a safe passage for Mr. Saleh and his family, and residency in another country, but that appears to be the direction of the talks in Sana, the capital.

For Washington, the key to his departure would be arranging a transfer of power that would enable the counterterrorism operation in Yemen to continue.

One administration official referred to that concern last week, saying that the standoff between the president and the protesters �has had a direct adverse impact on the security situation throughout the country.�

�Groups of various stripes � Al Qaeda, Houthis, tribal elements, and secessionists � are exploiting the current political turbulence and emerging fissures within the military and security services for their own gain,� the official said. �Until President Saleh is able to resolve the current political impasse by announcing how and when he will follow through on his earlier commitment to take tangible steps to meet opposition demands, the security situation in Yemen is at risk of further deterioration.�

In recent days, American officials have hinted at the change in position.

The official�s statement about �tangible steps,� one official said, could include giving into the demand that he step down.

At a State Department briefing recently, the spokesman, Mark Toner, was questioned on whether there had been planning for a post-Saleh Yemen. While he did not answer the question directly, he said, in part, that counterterrorism in Yemen �goes beyond any one individual.�

In addition to the massive street demonstrations that have convulsed the country in the last two months, the deteriorating security in Yemen includes a Houthi rebellion in the north, a secessionist movement in the south, and an active Qaeda operation in the southeast. Houthi rebels seized control of Saada Province a week ago and armed militants have taken over a city in the southern province of Abyan where Al Qaeda is known to have set up a base.

Among Yemenis, there is a feeling that there is a race against the clock to resolve the political impasse before the country implodes. In addition to the security concerns, Yemen faces a looming economic crisis.

Food prices are rising, the value of the Yemeni currency, the rial, is dropping sharply, and dollars are disappearing from currency exchange shops in the capital. According to the World Food Progam, the price of wheat flour has increased 45 percent since mid-March and rice by 22 percent.

Analysts have also expressed concern that Mr. Saleh is depleting the national reserves paying for promises to keep himself in power. Mr. Saleh has paid thousands of supporters to come to the capital to stage pro-government protests, and doled out money to tribal leaders to secure their loyalties. In February he promised to reduce income taxes and raise salaries for civil servants and the military to try to tamp down discontent.

�Its not a recession. It�s not a depression. It�s a mess,� said Mohammed Abulahom, a prominent member of Parliament for Mr. Saleh�s governing party who has thrown his support to the protesters. He said the country�s fragile state has added new urgency to the talks.

The fact that the Americans are �seriously engaged in discussion on how to transfer power shows their willingness to figure out a way to transfer power,� he said.

He said the Americans �are doing what ought to be done and we will see more pressure down the road.� He said the Americans now realize that change must come to Yemen, �and I think the internationals are admitting that by thinking that it is time to ally themselves with the people.�

The criticism of the United States for failing to publicly support Yemen�s protesters has been loudest here, where the protesters insist the United States� only concern in Yemen is counterterrorism.

�We are really very, very angry because America until now didn�t help us similar to what Mr. Obama said that Mubarak has to leave now,� said Towakil Karman, who is widely regarded as the leader of the youth antigovernment movement. �Obama says he appreciated the courage and dignity of Tunisian people. He didn�t say that for Yemeni people.�

�We feel that we have been betrayed,� she said.

Hamza Alkamaly, 23, a prominent student leader, agreed. �We students lost our trust in the United States,� he said. �We thought the United States would help us in the first time because we are calling for our freedom.�

Late Saturday night Yemen�s opposition coalition, the Joint Meetings Parties, proposed an outline for a transfer of power that has become the new focus of the talks. The proposal calls for power be transferred immediately to Vice President Abd al-Rab Mansur al-Hadi until new presidential elections are held.

The young protesters have rejected the proposal, or any that would leave a leading Saleh official in charge.

Late Sunday, the Gulf Cooperation Council, an association of oil-rich countries in the Persian gulf, added its backing to the talks, issuing a statement saying it would press the Yemeni government and opposition to work toward an agreement to �overcome the status quo.�

After meeting in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, the group called for all sides to �uphold the national interest and quickly return to the table of national dialogue� in order to �restore social peace and achieve the aspirations of the Yemeni people by means of reforms.�

So far the council, including Yemen�s largest international donor, Saudi Arabia, has not taken part in the negotiations, Yemeni officials said.

There were also further clashes between security forces and protesters on Sunday in the central Yemeni city of Taiz.

Hundreds of people were injured by tear gas, rocks and gunfire, and there were conflicting reports as to whether a protester had been killed. Witnesses said security forces fired at the protesters and into the air.

According to Amnesty International, at least 95 people have died during two months of antigovernment protests.

# ? Apr 4, 2011 01:52

Young Freud: Nov 26, 2006

Vir posted:

Time appears to be on the rebels' hands though. The current situation is untenable for Gaddafi, and his most hilariously optimistic outlook seems to be some kind of oil-for-food and no-fly-zone intermission, but realistically he's most likely just fighting to maintain his bargaining position in the negotiations for how he leaves office.

If Libya does get partitioned, Qaddafi's hosed royally. I have no doubts that whatever trade and weapons embargoes that are in place now will remain in place under a Qaddafi-run West Libya/Tripolitania until he leaves. At the same time, a NTC-run East Libya/Cyrenaica will likely have any blocks removed, allowing them to trade oil for weapons and time for more experienced soldiers.

It would be like the partitioning of Korea, except that South Korea modernizes more rapidly while North Korea does not get forty-some-odd years of Sino-Soviet largesse helping them prop up their Kim regime and build up their military.

# ? Apr 4, 2011 01:59

Warcabbit: Apr 26, 2008; Wedge Regret

I have the feeling there are more trained soldiers than the few that just showed up. This is just the first graduating class. And the longer it goes, the more trained soldiers will show up. The longer the stalemate goes, the better the chances the Rebels have. At the moment.

# ? Apr 4, 2011 03:35

A Winner is Jew: Feb 14, 2008; by exmarx

Warcabbit posted:

I have the feeling there are more trained soldiers than the few that just showed up. This is just the first graduating class. And the longer it goes, the more trained soldiers will show up. The longer the stalemate goes, the better the chances the Rebels have. At the moment.

The OP of this thread in which CQ's use of military force against protesters hadn't even take place was Feb 14. That was just 49 days ago.

Basic training in the US lasts 10 weeks, or a full 22 more days beyond the first bloodshed on the 15'th, and IIRC about 2-3 weeks before the first Libyan army defections really took place.

Just posting that for people to recognize that a rebel victory here is going to take some time even with a very pro NTC no fly zone given that they have no real army to speak of yet. It's very premature to think that the capabilities of the rebels currently are what they will be at in a month or two when more than a few trained soldiers are on the front lines like there are now.

# ? Apr 4, 2011 05:32

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

Supposedly two of Gaddafi's sons are pushing a plan for their father to resign.

# ? Apr 4, 2011 08:01

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# ? May 22, 2024 03:45

Mister Roboto: Jun 15, 2009; I SWING BY AUNT MAY's
FOR A SHOWER AND A
BITE, MOST NATURAL
THING IN THE WORLD,
ASSUMING SHE'S
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Hey, Dieting Hippo, do you have a way to contact you off the thread? I'd like to ask about a few things related to the subject and don't want to derail the thread.

# ? Apr 4, 2011 10:37

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

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